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At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORESTR: Finding, Organizing, Representing, Explaining, Summarizing, and Thinning Random forests

Random forests have become popular models used for data driven predictions. As a result, random forests are currently used or being considered for high-consequence mission applications in national security, such as the prediction of yield from optical signals and malware detection. While random forests may provide accurate predictions, the complexity of the algorithm causes a lack of interpretability. Random forests are an ensemble of regression or decision trees. Individual regression and decision trees are interpretable, but ensembles are inherently difficult to interpret due to the compilation of many models. We aim to increase the interpretability of random forests by finding patterns in the ensemble of trees that can be used to “thin” (or remove) trees. As a starting point, in this report, we develop a new distance metric for quantifying the similarity between trees based on their topologies (i.e., shapes). We base the metric on a novel distance metric for graphs that is a proper mathematical distance, is invariant to transformations, has registration between graphs, and computes topological evolutions between graphs. We use the tree distance metric to compute tree statistics such as a “mean tree” and to identify clusters of trees. We apply the developed methodology to a toy dataset and a mission relevant product inspection dataset to demonstrate how the metric can provide insight into random forests. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of the approach and ideas for future research into how the metric could be used as a thinning tool to develop less complex models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Approach for Hourly Traffic Prediction Used in EV-Charging Sites

Reliable forecasting of hourly traffic volumes on highways is critical for planning and operating electric-vehicle charging infrastructure without overloading the grid. In this work, we develop and evaluate a station-specific machine-learning approach based on NeuralProphet, enhanced with conditional seasonality to better distinguish weekday, weekend, and holiday patterns. For each station, the model automatically retrieves the same calendar day from the prior years as an AR-Net initialization, fits trend and Fourier-based seasonality components, and then applies short-term auto-regressive corrections. We train and test on 2021 and 2022 TMAS data, respectively, and validate performance over the whole year. We chose to demonstrate how the model performs on a typical weekday (3/15/2022), weekend (3/27/2022), and a special holiday (12/25/2022). Our results yield MAPE of 7.4%, 23.6%, and 32.0%, respectively. Over the entire year 2022, the overall MAPE was 17%. This demonstrates that station-specific models with conditional seasonality can achieve accurate, scalable hourly forecasts for EV-charging load planning.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hyper‐Local Temperature Prediction Using Detailed Urban Climate Informatics

The accurate modeling of urban microclimate is a challenging task given the high surface heterogeneity of urban land cover and the vertical structure of street morphology. Recent years have witnessed significant efforts in numerical modeling and data collection of the urban environment. Nonetheless, it is difficult for the physical‐based models to fully utilize the high‐resolution data under the constraints of computing resources. The advancement in machine learning (ML) techniques offers the computational strength to handle the massive volume of data. In this study, we proposed a modeling framework that uses ML approach to estimate point‐scale street‐level air temperature from the urban‐resolving meso‐scale climate model and a suite of hyper‐resolution urban geospatial data sets, including three‐dimensional urban morphology, parcel‐level land use inventory, and weather observations from a sensor network. We implemented this approach in the City of Chicago as a case study to demonstrate the capability of the framework. The proposed approach vastly improves the resolution of temperature predictions in cities, which will help the city with walkability, drivability, and heat‐related behavioral studies. Moreover, we tested the model's reliability on out‐of‐sample locations to investigate the modeling uncertainties and the application potentials to the other areas. This study aims to gain insights into next‐gen urban climate modeling and guide the observation efforts in cities to build the strength for the holistic understanding of urban microclimate dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Many-body expansion based machine learning models for octahedral transition metal complexes

Abstract Graph-based machine learning (ML) models for material properties show great potential to accelerate virtual high-throughput screening of large chemical spaces. However, in their simplest forms, graph-based models do not include any 3D information and are unable to distinguish stereoisomers such as those arising from different orderings of ligands around a metal center in coordination complexes. In this work we present a modification to revised autocorrelation descriptors, a molecular graph featurization method, for predicting spin state dependent properties of octahedral transition metal complexes (TMCs). Inspired by analytical semi-empirical models for TMCs, the new modeling strategy is based on the many-body expansion (MBE) and allows one to tune the captured stereoisomer information by changing the truncation order of the MBE. We present the necessary modifications to include this approach in two commonly used ML methods, kernel ridge regression and feed-forward neural networks. On a test set composed of all possible isomers of binary TMCs, the best MBE models achieve mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 2.75 kcal mol −1 on spin-splitting energies and 0.26 eV on frontier orbital energy gaps, a 30%–40% reduction in error compared to models based on our previous approach. We also observe improved generalization to previously unseen ligands where the best-performing models exhibit MAEs of 4.00 kcal mol −1 (i.e. a 0.73 kcal mol −1 reduction) on the spin-splitting energies and 0.53 eV (i.e. a 0.10 eV reduction) on the frontier orbital energy gaps. Because the new approach incorporates insights from electronic structure theory, such as ligand additivity relationships, these models exhibit systematic generalization from homoleptic to heteroleptic complexes, allowing for efficient screening of TMC search spaces.

Meyer, Ralf (ORCID:0000000322360261)↗
DOE OSTI2021

An adaptive Hessian approximated stochastic gradient MCMC method

Bayesian approaches have been successfully integrated into training deep neural networks. One popular family is stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (SG-MCMC), which have gained increasing interest due to their ability to handle large datasets and the potential to avoid overfitting. Although standard SG-MCMC methods have shown great performance in a variety of problems, they may be inefficient when the random variables in the target posterior densities have scale differences or are highly correlated. Here, we present an adaptive Hessian approximated stochastic gradient MCMC method to incorporate local geometric information while sampling from the posterior. The idea is to apply stochastic approximation (SA) to sequentially update a preconditioning matrix at each iteration. The preconditioner possesses second-order information and can guide the random walk of a sampler efficiently. Instead of computing and saving the full Hessian of the log posterior, we use limited memory of the samples and their stochastic gradients to approximate the inverse Hessian-vector multiplication in the updating formula. Moreover, by smoothly optimizing the preconditioning matrix via SA, our proposed algorithm can asymptotically converge to the target distribution with a controllable bias under mild conditions. To reduce the training and testing computational burden, we adopt a magnitude-based weight pruning method to enforce the sparsity of the network. Our method is user-friendly and demonstrates better learning results compared to standard SG-MCMC updating rules. The approximation of inverse Hessian alleviates storage and computational complexities for large dimensional models. Numerical experiments are performed on several problems, including sampling from 2D correlated distribution, synthetic regression problems, and learning the numerical solutions of heterogeneous elliptic PDE. The numerical results demonstrate great improvement in both the convergence rate and accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Permutation-adapted complete and independent basis for atomic cluster expansion descriptors

Atomic cluster expansion (ACE) methods provide a systematic way to describe particle local environments of arbitrary body order. For practical applications it is often required that the basis of cluster functions be symmetrized with respect to rotations and permutations. Existing methodologies yield sets of symmetrized functions that are over-complete. These methodologies thus require an additional numerical procedure, such as singular value decomposition (SVD), to eliminate redundant functions. In this work, it is shown that analytical linear relationships for subsets of cluster functions may be derived using recursion and permutation properties of generalized Wigner symbols. From these relationships, subsets (blocks) of cluster functions can be selected such that, within each block, functions are guaranteed to be linearly independent. It is conjectured that this block-wise independent set of permutation-adapted rotation and permutation invariant (PA-RPI) functions forms a complete, independent basis for ACE. Along with the first analytical proofs of block-wise linear dependence of ACE cluster functions and other theoretical arguments, numerical results are offered to demonstrate this. The utility of the method is demonstrated in the development of an ACE interatomic potential for tantalum. Using the new basis functions in combination with Bayesian compressive sensing sparse regression, some high degree descriptors are observed to persist and help achieve high-accuracy models.

Angular momentum↗
DOE OSTI2025

A compact x-ray spectrometer for measurements of electron temperature distributions in inertial confinement fusion implosions at OMEGA

The Wedge Range Filter (WRF), commonly used for proton spectroscopy at the OMEGA Laser Facility and National Ignition Facility, is adapted to measure the x-ray continuum spectrum through transmission measurement using a continuous-gradient filter. Continuum x rays emitted from the hotspot of an implosion contain information about the plasma composition and electron temperature. The WRF data are leveraged to probe this distribution, specifically the electron temperature distribution. In this work, the data recorded with the WRF are forward modeled using a temperature distribution model folded with the WRF response function. An uncertainty analysis is conducted through a Bayesian regression algorithm using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. This analysis enables the uncertainties in the instrument response to be folded into the uncertainty estimation of the electron temperature and absolute x-ray emission. Data analysis for a series of OMEGA implosions is presented and compared with radiation hydrodynamic simulations.

Lasers↗
DOE OSTI2024

GP-BayesOpInf

SAND2025-01851O GP-BayesOpInf is a software tool that uses algorithms to combine Gaussian process regression, principal component analysis, and linear Bayesian inference to produce a probabilistic reduced-order model for time-dependent systems. Numerical examples include the compressible Euler equations for an ideal gas, a heat diffusion process with a nonlinear reaction term, and a set of ordinary differential equations describing a compartmental model in epidemiology. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wireless Patch Antenna Characterization for Live Health Monitoring Using Machine Learning

Temperature monitoring in extreme environments, such as coal-fired power plants, was addressed by designing and testing wireless patch antennas for use in machine learning-aided temperature estimation. The sensors were designed to monitor the temperature and health of boiler systems. Wireless interrogation of the sensor was performed using a Vector Network Analyzer (VNA) and a pair of interrogation antennas to capture resonance behavior under varying thermal and spatial conditions with sensitivities ranging from 0.052 to 0.20 $\frac{𝑀𝐻𝑧}{°C}$. Sensor calibration was conducted using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, which leveraged temporal patterns to account for hysteresis effects. The calibration method demonstrated improved performance when combined with an LSTM model, achieving up to a 76% improvement in temperature estimation error when compared with Linear Regression (LR). The experiments highlighted an innovative solution for patch antenna-based non-contact temperature measurement, which addresses limitations with conventional methods such as RFID-based systems, infrared, and thermocouples.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme sparsification of physics-augmented neural networks for interpretable model discovery in mechanics

Data-driven constitutive modeling with neural networks has received increased interest in recent years due to its ability to easily incorporate physical and mechanistic constraints and to overcome the challenging and time-consuming task of formulating phenomenological constitutive laws that can accurately capture the observed material response. However, even though neural network-based constitutive laws have been shown to generalize proficiently, the generated representations are not easily interpretable due to their high number of trainable parameters. Sparse regression approaches exist that allow for obtaining interpretable expressions, but the user is tasked with creating a library of model forms which by construction limits their expressiveness to the functional forms provided in the libraries. Here, in this work, we propose to train regularized physics-augmented neural network-based constitutive models utilizing a smoothed version of $L^0$-regularization. This aims to maintain the trustworthiness inherited by the physical constraints, but also enables interpretability which has not been possible thus far on any type of machine learning-based constitutive model where model forms were not assumed a priori but were actually discovered. During the training process, the network simultaneously fits the training data and penalizes the number of active parameters, while also ensuring constitutive constraints such as thermodynamic consistency. We show that the method can reliably obtain interpretable and trustworthy constitutive models for compressible and incompressible hyperelasticity, yield functions, and hardening models for elastoplasticity, using synthetic and experimental data. This work aims to set a new paradigm for interpretable machine learning models in the broad area of solid mechanics where low and limited data is available along with prior knowledge of physical constraints that the learned maps need to obey. This paradigm can potentially be extended to a broader spectrum of scientific exploration.

Data-driven constitutive models↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differential Property Prediction: A Machine Learning Approach to Experimental Design in Advanced Manufacturing

Advanced manufacturing techniques have enabled the production of materials with state-of-the-art properties. In many cases however, the development of physics-based models of these techniques lags behind their development in the lab. This means that material and process development proceeds largely via trial and error. This is sub-optimal since experiments are cost-, time-, and labor-intensive. In this work we propose a machine learning framework, differential property classification (DPC), which enables an experimenter to leverage machine learning's unparalleled pattern matching capability to pursue data-driven experimental design. DPC takes two possible experiment parameter sets and outputs a prediction of which will produce a material with a more desirable property specified by the operator. We demonstrate the success of DPC on AA7075 tube manufacturing process and mechanical property data using shear assisted processing and extrusion (ShAPE), an emerging solid phase processing technology. We show that by focusing on the experimenter's need to choose between multiple candidate experimental parameters, we can reframe the challenging regression task of predicting material properties from processing parameters, into a classification task on which machine learning models can achieve good performance.

advanced manufacturing, machine learning, ShAPE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling Alzheimer’s disease neurodegeneration from typical brain ageing using machine learning

Abstract Neuroimaging biomarkers that distinguish between changes due to typical brain ageing and Alzheimer’s disease are valuable for determining how much each contributes to cognitive decline. Supervised machine learning models can derive multivariate patterns of brain change related to the two processes, including the Spatial Patterns of Atrophy for Recognition of Alzheimer’s Disease (SPARE-AD) and of Brain Aging (SPARE-BA) scores investigated herein. However, the substantial overlap between brain regions affected in the two processes confounds measuring them independently. We present a methodology, and associated results, towards disentangling the two. T1-weighted MRI scans of 4054 participants (48–95 years) with Alzheimer’s disease, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or cognitively normal (CN) diagnoses from the Imaging-based coordinate SysTem for AGIng and NeurodeGenerative diseases (iSTAGING) consortium were analysed. Multiple sets of SPARE scores were investigated, in order to probe imaging signatures of certain clinically or molecularly defined sub-cohorts. First, a subset of clinical Alzheimer’s disease patients (n = 718) and age- and sex-matched CN adults (n = 718) were selected based purely on clinical diagnoses to train SPARE-BA1 (regression of age using CN individuals) and SPARE-AD1 (classification of CN versus Alzheimer’s disease) models. Second, analogous groups were selected based on clinical and molecular markers to train SPARE-BA2 and SPARE-AD2 models: amyloid-positive Alzheimer’s disease continuum group (n = 718; consisting of amyloid-positive Alzheimer’s disease, amyloid-positive MCI, amyloid- and tau-positive CN individuals) and amyloid-negative CN group (n = 718). Finally, the combined group of the Alzheimer’s disease continuum and amyloid-negative CN individuals was used to train SPARE-BA3 model, with the intention to estimate brain age regardless of Alzheimer’s disease-related brain changes. The disentangled SPARE models, SPARE-AD2 and SPARE-BA3, derived brain patterns that were more specific to the two types of brain changes. The correlation between the SPARE-BA Gap (SPARE-BA minus chronological age) and SPARE-AD was significantly reduced after the decoupling (r = 0.56–0.06). The correlation of disentangled SPARE-AD was non-inferior to amyloid- and tau-related measurements and to the number of APOE ε4 alleles but was lower to Alzheimer’s disease-related psychometric test scores, suggesting the contribution of advanced brain ageing to the latter. The disentangled SPARE-BA was consistently less correlated with Alzheimer’s disease-related clinical, molecular and genetic variables. By employing conservative molecular diagnoses and introducing Alzheimer’s disease continuum cases to the SPARE-BA model training, we achieved more dissociable neuroanatomical biomarkers of typical brain ageing and Alzheimer’s disease.

Hwang, Gyujoon↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prediction and uncertainty quantification of shale well performance using multifidelity Monte Carlo

Uncertainty quantification is an integral component of reservoir management, especially considering the inherent uncertainty in subsurface systems. While a standard practice to estimate the uncertainty, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intense when the sampling population comprises high-fidelity simulations. Alternatively, the Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) simulation overcomes this computational intensity by integrating low- and high-fidelity simulations. Our goal is to minimize the number of expensive high-fidelity simulations while maintaining accuracy and using numerous fast and cheap low-fidelity simulations to efficiently sample to input parameter space of interest. We selected gas production from unconventional wells to demonstrate the potential speedups and accuracy of the MFMC approach. The model fidelity usually determines the trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. While the high-fidelity model is more accurate, the low-fidelity model is more efficient. Our high-fidelity simulation includes reservoir simulations of a hydraulically fractured well. On the other hand, our low-fidelity model comprises the parallel-plate flow model. We used differential programming to efficiently solve the 1D flow model, where automatic differentiation is used to efficiently compute the gradients. We matched the production profile of high-fidelity simulations with our low-fidelity simulations. Then, we used a support vector regression to map the high- and low-fidelity input parameters. The mapping function is essential to tune the low-dimensional parameter space of the low-fidelity model to the high-dimensional parameter space of the high-fidelity model. We found that we can use a combination of 9 high fidelity and 10,000 low fidelity simulations to efficiently and accurately simulate pressure management. This method is at least two orders of magnitude faster than only using high-fidelity simulations. Finally, from a broader perspective, MFMC could efficiently estimate the uncertainty of various systems and models, integrating low- and high-fidelity models.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molecular dipole moment learning via rotationally equivariant derivative kernels in molecular-orbital-based machine learning

This study extends the accurate and transferable molecular-orbital-based machine learning (MOB-ML) approach to modeling the contribution of electron correlation to dipole moments at the cost of Hartree–Fock computations. A MOB pairwise decomposition of the correlation part of the dipole moment is applied, and these pair dipole moments could be further regressed as a universal function of MOs. The dipole MOB features consist of the energy MOB features and their responses to electric fields. An interpretable and rotationally equivariant derivative kernel for Gaussian process regression (GPR) is introduced to learn the dipole moment more efficiently. The proposed problem setup, feature design, and ML algorithm are shown to provide highly accurate models for both dipole moments and energies on water and 14 small molecules. To demonstrate the ability of MOB-ML to function as generalized density-matrix functionals for molecular dipole moments and energies of organic molecules, we further apply the proposed MOB-ML approach to train and test the molecules from the QM9 dataset. The application of local scalable GPR with Gaussian mixture model unsupervised clustering GPR scales up MOB-ML to a large-data regime while retaining the prediction accuracy. In addition, compared with the literature results, MOB-ML provides the best test mean absolute errors of 4.21 mD and 0.045 kcal/mol for dipole moment and energy models, respectively, when training on 110 000 QM9 molecules. The excellent transferability of the resulting QM9 models is also illustrated by the accurate predictions for four different series of peptides.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Historic climate, cosmogenic 10Be, denudation-rate, and geospatial datasets from the Pikes Peak region, Colorado, USA

This data package contains geographic information system (GIS) layers and tabular datasets associated with the study of elevation-dependent denudation rates on Pikes Peak in the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA. The package includes GIS layers used to produce the study-area map, including sample locations, sample watershed boundaries, the Pikes Peak batholith, Pleistocene glacier extent, weather station locations, and elevation and hillshade rasters, together with comma-separated value (CSV) tables and matching CSV data dictionaries. These mapped layers provide the geographic framework for interpreting denudation patterns across the Pikes Peak region and for relating sample locations to watershed geometry, bedrock setting, glacial history, and nearby climate stations. The first group of tables reports climate and geospatial context for the study area. These files include station-based temperature and precipitation data used to characterize elevational gradients in mean annual climate and monthly climate seasonality, sample locations, denudation-rate and topographic metrics, fixed frost-cracking model parameters, frost-cracking intensity and precipitation-frequency metrics, and stream-power inversion results. Together, these data provide the basis for evaluating how denudation varies with elevation, climate, and landscape form across sampled catchments on Pikes Peak. The second group of tables reports cosmogenic nuclide and erosion-model results used in the denudation analysis. Included files contain accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) measurements for in situ-produced cosmogenic beryllium-10 (10Be), including sample identifiers, measured 10Be:9Be ratios, analytical uncertainties, carrier mass, quartz mass, blank corrections, blank-group statistics, and calculated 10Be concentrations and uncertainties. Additional tables summarize stream-power-law inversion results for sampled catchments, including optimized model parameters, predicted erosion rates, residual metrics, channel-pixel counts, and convergence status, as well as regression equations and summary statistics used to evaluate relationships among elevation, climate, frost cracking, precipitation forcing, and denudation rate. The package contains GIS files, comma-separated value files (.csv), Microsoft Excel files (.xlsx), CSV data dictionaries, a file-level metadata table, and a readme text file.

10Be cosmogenic nuclides↗
DOE OSTI2023

Harnessing Uncertainty through Functional Data Analysis in Gas Breakthrough Data

Detecting subsurface explosions from radionuclide gas migration through rock fractures is an effective way to identify nuclear activity. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed simulation methods, based on data from the 1962 Hardhat underground nuclear test, to predict gas breakthrough times at the surface. However, these methods rely on an imperfect understanding of the relationship between rock damage and fracture permeability. Our clinic project studies methods for predicting breakthrough curves that characterize total mass produced as a function of time, as well as quantifying the uncertainty associated with these predictions. The model that is currently employed to relate damage to permeability uses an empirically motivated power-law expression, with a range of parameter values that are compatible with the experimental Hardhat data. We develop emulators, built from functional data analysis techniques and trained on simulation data, that rapidly predict the gas breakthrough curve given a damage field and given the parameter values of the power-law equation. Using Bayesian regression, we address the problem of uncertainty quantification in our emulators. Finally, in order to test the robustness of the model, we further validate it on a damage field representing different physical conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗