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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

A low-order global gravity field of Venus and dynamical implications

An estimate of sixth-degree and sixth-order harmonic coefficients of the global gravity field of Venus is obtained by processing the long periodic variations of the mean orbital elements of the Pioneer Venus orbiter. Approximately 220 days of data are included in this reduction, which provides almost complete longitudinal coverage. Oblateness is estimated to be -5.97 + or - 3.2 x 10 to the -6. It is noted that the amplitudes of other coefficients are similar to the predicted coefficients using Kaula's rule under equal stress assumption. Atmospheric density values as a function of altitude are obtained to help model drag perturbation. A radial acceleration map at 100 km above the Venus surface is generated, and correlation between gravity anomalies and major topographic features is observed. Spectral analysis of the harmonic model suggests that the interior density anomalies are like those on earth. The orientation angles of the principal axes of the moments of inertia are computed, and deviation of the maximum moment of inertia axis from the spin axis is observed to be small (less than 5 deg). It is found that the minimum moment of inertia axis passes through the Aphrodite and Beta regions.

Ananda, M. P.↗

Hot spot heat transfer - Its application to Venus and implications to Venus and earth

Using a model that gives a relationship between surface elevation, lithospheric thickness, and heat flux, the hot spot heat loss mechanism is tested for Venus. The mechanism is found to readily explain the predicted heat loss of the planet with a modest number of hot spots (of the order of 35). Lithospheric thickness variations can explain approximately 93 percent of the mapped topography of Venus. Above a radius of 6053 km, additional compensation is required, and this can be effected by incorporating a variable thickness crust into the model. If it is assumed that the crust is generated on the crests of the hot spots, probably by processes associated with volcanism, the model is consistent with nearly 99 percent of the mapped topography of Venus. In addition, the model is basically consistent with available gravity data and interpretations that suggest compensated topography and great depths of compensation (100-1000 km) for the midlatitudes of the planet. It is thought that the approximately 1 percent of the topography not explained by hot spot crustal generation is compensated at a shallower depth primarily by variations in crustal thickness that are not directly related to hot spot volcanism.

Morgan, P.↗

The energetics and mass structure of regions of star formation - S201

Theoretical predictions about dust and gas in star-forming regions are tested by observing a 4-arcmin region surrounding the radio continuum source in S201. The object was mapped in two far-infrared wavelengths and found to show significant extended emission. Under the assumption that the molecular gas is heated solely via thermal coupling with the dust, the volume density was mapped in S201. The ratios of infrared optical depth to CO column density were calculated for a number of positions in the source. Near the center of the cloud the values are found to be in good agreement with other determinations for regions with lower column density. In addition, the observations suggest significant molecular destruction in the outer parts of the object. Current models of gas heating were used to calculate a strong limit for the radius of the far-infrared emitting grains, a equal to or less than 0.15 micron. Grains of about this size are required by the observation of high temperature (T equal to or greater than 20 K) gas in many sources.

Thronson, H. A., Jr.↗

Predicting Spacecraft Trajectories

Calculations include drag, nonsphericity, and other perturbations. Artificial Satellite Analysis Program (ASAP) is general orbit-prediction program that incorporates sufficient orbit-modeling accuracy for mission design, maneuver analysis, and mission planning. Suitable for studying planetary orbit missions with spacecraft trajectories of exploratory (mapping) nature. Sample data included for study of drift cycle of geosynchronous station, strategy for mapping Venus by radar, frozen orbit about Mars, and repeat-ground-trace orbit. ASAP written in FORTRAN 77.

Kwok, J.↗

Rectification of terrain induced distortions in radar imagery

This paper describes a technique to generate geocoded synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery corrected for terrain induced geometric distortions. This algorithm transforms the raw slant range image, generated by the signal processor, into a map registered product, resampled to either Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) or Polar Stereographic projections, and corrected for foreshortening. The technique utilizes the space platform trajectory information in conjunction with a digital elevation map (DEM) of the target area to generate an ortho-radar map with near-autonomous operation. The current procedure requires only two to three tie-points to compensate for the platform position uncertainty that results in translational error between the image and the DEM. This approach is unique in that it does not require generation of a simulated radar image from the DEM or a grid of tie-points to characterize the image-to-map distortions. Rather, it models the inherent distortions based on knowledge of the radar data collection characteristics, the signal Doppler parameters, and the local terrain height to automatically predict the registration transformation. This algorithm has been implemented on a minicomputer system equipped with an array processor and a large random-access memory to optimize the throughput.

Kwok, Ronald↗

Correlations of TOMS total ozone data (Nimbus-7 satellite) with tropopause height

Two correlation studies of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data with tropopause height from radiosondes performed over Europe showed a correlation coefficient of 0.94 and 0.96. As a result, the rms error in the prediction of tropopause height from total ozone was found to be 20 mb. Correlation between tropopause height and TOMS data was the highest of all the other correlations with variables directly derived from radiosondes or simulated thermal radiances over the location of radiosondes. Comparing the two dimensional fields of TOMS, tropopause height from radiosondes and tropopause height field from TIROS-N retrievals, we can say that the first field is much closer to the true field from radiosondes than the third. The correlation coefficient for a ten-day study between TOMS data and tropopause height from radiosondes is between 0.85 and 0.9 for 30-70N. Tropopause analysis provided by GLA model also shows a very high correlation with TOMS data.

Munteanu, Marie-Jeanne↗

The detection and characterization of high frequency and high wavenumber solar oscillations

Doppler shift measurements of the Na D(sub 1) absorption line have revealed solar oscillations in a new regime of frequency and wavenumber. Oscillations of vertical velocities in the temperature minimum and low chromosphere of the Sun are observed with frequencies ranging up to 9.5 mHz. There is no evidence for chromospheric modes of 3 minute period. This indicates that the chromosphere does not form a good cavity for acoustic waves. The fundamental-modes appear with wavenumbers up to 5.57 M per m (equivalent spherical harmonic degree, 3877). The frequencies lie below the predicted values at wavenumbers above 1 M per m. The values are in agreement with previous measurements that exist for wavenumbers up to 2.67 M per m. Spatial maps of velocity power show that high wavenumber oscillations are suppressed in active regions. The shape of the power depression indicates that wave motion is affected in the layer of atmosphere where the measurement is made. The f-modes are suppressed in the same way as p-modes, indicating that the mechanism for wave suppression affects velocity fluctuations. Mode frequencies are not affected by the magnetic fields by more than 50 micro Hz, the precision of the measurement.

Fernandes, David Neil↗

Experimental Investigation of Textile Composite Materials Using Moire Interferometry

The viability as an efficient aircraft material of advanced textile composites is currently being addressed in the NASA Advanced Composites Technology (ACT) Program. One of the expected milestones of the program is to develop standard test methods for these complex material systems. Current test methods for laminated composites may not be optimum for textile composites, since the architecture of the textile induces nonuniform deformation characteristics on the scale of the smallest repeating unit of the architecture. The smallest repeating unit, also called the unit cell, is often larger than the strain gages used for testing of tape composites. As a result, extending laminated composite test practices to textiles can often lead to pronounced scatter in material property measurements. It has been speculated that the fiber architectures produce significant surface strain nonuniformities, however, the magnitudes were not well understood. Moire interferometry, characterized by full-field information, high displacement sensitivity, and high spatial resolution, is well suited to document the surface strain on textile composites. Studies at the NASA Langley Research Center on a variety of textile architectures including 2-D braids and 3-D weaves, has evidenced the merits of using moire interferometry to guide in test method development for textile composites. Moire was used to support tensile testing by validating instrumentation practices and documenting damage mechanisms. It was used to validate shear test methods by mapping the full-field deformation of shear specimens. Moire was used to validate open hole tension experiments to determine the strain concentration and compare then to numeric predictions. It was used for through-the-thickness tensile strength test method development, to verify capabilities for testing of both 2-D and 3-D material systems. For all of these examples, moire interferometry provided vision so that test methods could be developed with less speculation and more documentation.

Ifju, Peter G.↗

SSME Condition Monitoring Using Neural Networks and Plume Spectral Signatures

For a variety of reasons, condition monitoring of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) has become an important concern for both ground tests and in-flight operation. The complexities of the SSME suggest that active, real-time condition monitoring should be performed to avoid large-scale or catastrophic failure of the engine. In 1986, the SSME became the subject of a plume emission spectroscopy project at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Since then, plume emission spectroscopy has recorded many nominal tests and the qualitative spectral features of the SSME plume are now well established. Significant discoveries made with both wide-band and narrow-band plume emission spectroscopy systems led MSFC to develop the Optical Plume Anomaly Detection (OPAD) system. The OPAD system is designed to provide condition monitoring of the SSME during ground-level testing. The operational health of the engine is achieved through the acquisition of spectrally resolved plume emissions and the subsequent identification of abnormal emission levels in the plume indicative of engine erosion or component failure. Eventually, OPAD, or a derivative of the technology, could find its way on to an actual space vehicle and provide in-flight engine condition monitoring. This technology step, however, will require miniaturized hardware capable of processing plume spectral data in real-time. An objective of OPAD condition monitoring is to determine how much of an element is present in the SSME plume. The basic premise is that by knowing the element and its concentration, this could be related back to the health of components within the engine. For example, an abnormal amount of silver in the plume might signify increased wear or deterioration of a particular bearing in the engine. Once an anomaly is identified, the engine could be shut down before catastrophic failure occurs. Currently, element concentrations in the plume are determined iteratively with the help of a non-linear computer code called SPECTRA, developed at the USAF Arnold Engineering Development Center. Ostensibly, the code produces intensity versus wavelength plots (i.e., spectra) when inputs such as element concentrations, reaction temperature, and reaction pressure are provided. However, in order to provide a higher-level analysis, element concentration is not specified explicitly as an input. Instead, two quantum variables, number density and broadening parameter, are used. Past experience with OPAD data analysis has revealed that the region of primary interest in any SSME plume spectrum lies in the wavelength band of 3300 A to 4330 A. Experience has also revealed that some elements, such as iron, cobalt and nickel, cause multiple peaks over the chosen wavelength range whereas other elements (magnesium, for example) have a few, relatively isolated peaks in the chosen wavelength range. Iteration with SPECTRA as a part of OPAD data analysis is an incredibly labor intensive task and not one to be performed by hand. What is really needed is the "inverse" of the computer code but the mathematical model for the inverse mapping is tenuous at best. However, building generalized models based upon known input/output mappings while ignoring details of the governing physical model is possible using neural networks. Thus the objective of the research project described herein was to quickly and accurately predict combustion temperature and element concentrations (i.e., number density and broadening parameter) from a given spectrum using a neural network. In other words, a neural network had to be developed that would provide a generalized "inverse" of the computer code SPECTRA.

Hopkins, Randall↗

John F. Kennedy Space Center's Technology Development and Application 2006-2007 Report

Topics covered include: Reversible Chemochromic Hydrogen Detectors; Determining Trajectory of Triboelectrically Charged Particles, Using Discrete Element Modeling; Using Indium Tin Oxide To Mitigate Dust on Viewing Ports; High-Performance Polyimide Powder Coatings; Controlled-Release Microcapsules for Smart Coatings for Corrosion Applications; Aerocoat 7 Replacement Coatings; Photocatalytic Coatings for Exploration and Spaceport Design; New Materials for the Repair of Polyimide Electrical Wire Insulation; Commodity-Free Calibration; Novel Ice Mitigation Methods; Crack Offset Measurement With the Projected Laser Target Device; New Materials for Structural Composites and Protective Coatings; Fire Chemistry Testing of Spray-On Foam Insulation (SOFI); Using Aerogel-Based Insulation Material To Prevent Foam Loss on the Liquid-Hydrogen Intertank; Particle Ejection and Levitation Technology (PELT); Electrostatic Characterization of Lunar Dust; Numerical Analysis of Rocket Exhaust Cratering; RESOLVE Projects: Lunar Water Resource Demonstration and Regolith Volatile Characterization; Tribocharging Lunar Soil for Electrostatic Beneficiation; Numerically Modeling the Erosion of Lunar Soil by Rocket Exhaust Plumes; Trajectory Model of Lunar Dust Particles; Using Lunar Module Shadows To Scale the Effects of Rocket Exhaust Plumes; Predicting the Acoustic Environment Induced by the Launch of the Ares I Vehicle; Measuring Ultrasonic Acoustic Velocity in a Thin Sheet of Graphite Epoxy Composite; Hail Size Distribution Mapping; Launch Pad 39 Hail Monitor Array System; Autonomous Flight Safety System - Phase III; The Photogrammetry Cube; Bird Vision System; Automating Range Surveillance Through Radio Interferometry and Field Strength Mapping Techniques; Next-Generation Telemetry Workstation; GPS Metric Tracking Unit; and Space-Based Range.

Source record↗

Weather, Climate, and Society: New Demands on Science and Services

A new algorithm has been constructed to estimate the path length of lightning channels for the purpose of improving the model predictions of lightning NOx in both regional air quality and global chemistry/climate models. This algorithm was tested and applied to VHF signals detected by the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). The accuracy of the algorithm was characterized by comparing algorithm output to the plots of individual discharges whose lengths were computed by hand. Several thousands of lightning flashes within 120 km of the NALMA network centroid were gathered from all four seasons, and were analyzed by the algorithm. The mean, standard deviation, and median statistics were obtained for all the flashes, the ground flashes, and the cloud flashes. Channel length distributions were also obtained for the different seasons.

Source record↗

An Analysis of Operational Total Lightning Data During Long-Track Tornadoes

The 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak brought three distinct waves of tornadic thunderstorms to portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia, striking the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama and southern Tennessee particularly hard. A total of 42 tornado paths were surveyed across the fourteen county area covered by the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office in Huntsville, Alabama. Ten of these tornadoes were on the ground for at least 20 miles, two had total path lengths over 130 miles, and six tornadoes were classified as violent (EF-4 or EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale). Many of these tornadoes occurred within the domain of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA), a ground-based total lightning detection network owned and operated by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Since 2003, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center has supplied data from NALMA in real time to NWS forecast offices in Huntsville, Knoxville/Tri-Cities, Birmingham, and Nashville. Previous research has documented the utility of total lightning information in predicting tornadogenesis, particularly when combined with other remote sensing tools. Basic warning decision-making during events such as 27 April is not the most difficult part of the process; instead, the focus of warning meteorologists shifts to looking for changes in intensity or possible particularly dangerous situations, since doppler radar velocity data often cannot distinguish between weak and strong tornadoes. To that end, this research attempts to determine if any correlation exists between flash densities of the longest-tracked tornadoes over time, and the surveyed wind speeds of the tornadoes. The long-track EF-5 tornado which struck the Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, and Tanner communities in north Alabama was the primary focus of this research due to its intensity and extended life cycle. However, not all tornadoes were available for total lightning analysis due to widespread power outages which negatively affected the detection efficiency and operation of the NALMA. Therefore, additional storms from 2008-2010 with tracks of at least 20 miles were analyzed for comparison purposes.

Carcione, Brian C.↗

Contribution of Lake-Effect Snow to the Catskill Mountains Snowpack

Meltwater from snow that falls in the Catskill Mountains in southern New York contributes to reservoirs that supply drinking water to approximately nine million people in New York City. Using the NOAA National Ice Centers Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) 4km snow maps, we have identified at least 32 lake-effect (LE) storms emanating from Lake Erie andor Lake Ontario that deposited snow in the CatskillDelaware Watershed in the Catskill Mountains of southern New York State between 2004 and 2017. This represents a large underestimate of the contribution of LE snow to the Catskills snowpack because many of the LE snowstorms are not visible in the IMS snow maps when they travel over snow-covered terrain. Most of the LE snowstorms that we identified originate from Lake Ontario but quite a few originate from both Erie and Ontario, and a few from Lake Erie alone. Using satellite, meteorological and reanalysis data we identify conditions that contributed to LE snowfall in the Catskills. Clear skies following some of the storms permitted measurement of the extent of snow cover in the watershed using multiple satellite sensors. IMS maps tend to overestimate the extent of snow compared to MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat-derived snow-cover extent maps. Using this combination of satellite and meteorological data, we can begin to quantify the important contribution of LE snow to the Catskills Mountain snowpack. Changes that are predicted in LE snowfall from the Great Lakes could impact the distribution of rain vs snow in the Catskills which may affect future reservoir operations in the NYC Water Supply System.

Lake Ontario↗

Colorado Eastern Plains Agriculture: Rangeland Monitoring to Inform Grazing Management in Eastern Colorado

Adaptive management on cattle ranches requires rangeland managers to decide the location and duration of the cattle grazing activity across different pastures. Biodiversity, forage availability, and cattle health are all affected by rangeland management. Virtual fencing is a tool that rangeland managers can use to potentially increase biodiversity and improve ranching operations. NASA DEVELOP and Colorado State University (CSU) collaborated with the Nature Conservancy (TNC), and Red Top Ranch to demonstrate the efficacy of virtual fencing. We sought to identify annual and monthly biomass patterns on the ranch through the creation of monthly max biomass productivity maps. We utilized a dataset from the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) to calculate biomass on the ranch. To validate our remotely-sensed results, we compared model-predicted biomass values to field-collected biomass clipping data and an additional biomass dataset from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP). We used satellite imagery from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 –OLI-2, and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) for 2021 and 2022. We found that there was heterogeneity in biomass across the ranch, with higher biomass on the western side. The highest peak of biomass was in the summer months, with a smaller peak in mid-September. The ARS biomass dataset had a significant relationship with RAP for 2021. ARS biomass did not have a significant relationship with the biomass field data collected in 2022. The results of our study are aimed to support rotation management, ranch production, biodiversity, and conservation management.

cattle↗

ChIMES: A Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Targeting Improved Description of Condensed Phase Chemistry in Energetic Materials

In this report we detail completion of a Physics and Engineering Model Level Two Milestone targeting improved reactive interatomic potentials (IAPs) for energetic materials (EM) through machine learning. The specific goals of this milestone were to develop, validate, and document a new reactive molecular dynamics method for EM, based on machine learning by (1) generating databases of first-principles-derived forces, stresses, and energies for HN3 and 3,4-bis(3-nitrofurazan- 4-yl)furoxan (DNTF) (2) generate atomistic force fields from these databases via ML, and (3) benchmark model performance against first principles calculations. These goals were achieved by (1) further developing a machine learned reactive IAP and generation approach (i.e. the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation or “ChIMES”), for which resulting IAPs can approach the predictive power of quantum-mechanical approaches at a fraction of the computational expense, and (2) applying the ChIMES framework to develop models for HN3 and DNTF. We find that for simple energetic materials like HN3, high accuracy ChIMES models can be obtained through application of a fitting approach that does not use active machine learning. We demonstrate the suitability of ChIMES models for simulations involving EM by using the HN3 model in multiscale shock technique simulations to predict the HN3 Chapman-Jouguet detonation state and investigate chemical evolution out to 1 ns following shock compression. This model is then used in larger direct shock (DS) simulations for a preliminary investigation of how bubbles (i.e. voids) influence material response under shock compression. We find that more complex EM (i.e. DNTF) necessitate a more sophisticated fitting approach, and develop a new active learning method and python tool to meet this challenge. We demonstrate that this fitting approach yields ChIMES models that out-perform commonly used standard reactive IAPs as well as semi-empirical quantum methods, and discuss the systematic improvability of these actively learned ChIMES models. We also describe challenges related to model development for EM such as DNTF, for which few experimental or previous simulation data are available (e.g. which could otherwise inform generation of training data). To overcome this issue, we establish a semi-empirical quantum ChIMES capability which can be used to efficiently map out relevant thermodynamic and configurational space, and generate ChIMES-IAP training data in a multiscale manner. We also show that these semi-empirical quantum ChIMES models can be used to generate predictions for the shock Hugoniot (the Hugoniot is the locus of thermodynamic states found in a shocked material) equation of state, investigate related thermochemistry, and explore carbon condensation following shock compression. This work represents a substantial advance in our atomistic modeling capability for EM that will provide much needed information on the chemistry of detonation for continued development of continuum models based on the Cheetah thermochemical code.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data-driven prediction of α IIb β 3 integrin activation paths using manifold learning and deep generative modeling

The integrin heterodimer is a transmembrane protein critical for driving cellular process and is a therapeutic target in the treatment of multiple diseases linked to its malfunction. Activation of integrin involves conformational transitions between bent and extended states. Some of the conformations that are intermediate between bent and extended states of the heterodimer have been experimentally characterized, but the full activation pathways remain unresolved both experimentally due to their transient nature and computationally due to the challenges in simulating rare barrier crossing events in these large molecular systems. An understanding of the activation pathways can provide new fundamental understanding of the biophysical processes associated with the dynamic interconversions between bent and extended states and unveil new putative therapeutic targets. In this work, we apply nonlinear manifold learning to coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations of bent, extended, and two intermediate states of αI I b β3 integrin to learn a low-dimensional embedding of the configurational phase space. We then train deep generative models to learn an inverse mapping between the low-dimensional embedding and high-dimensional molecular space and use these models to interpolate the molecular configurations constituting the activation pathways between the experimentally characterized states. Furthermore, this work furnishes plausible predictions of integrin activation pathways and reports a generic and transferable multi-scale technique to predict transition pathways for biomolecular systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Performance Prediction Model for a Fault-Tolerant Computer During Recovery and Restoration

The modeling and design of a fault-tolerant multiprocessor system is addressed. Of interest is the behavior of the system during recovery and restoration after a fault has occurred. The multiprocessor systems are based on the Algorithm to Architecture Mapping Model (ATAMM) and the fault considered is the death of a processor. The developed model is useful in the determination of performance bounds of the system during recovery and restoration. The performance bounds include time to recover from the fault, time to restore the system, and determination of any permanent delay in the input to output latency after the system has regained steady state. Implementation of an ATAMM based computer was developed for a four-processor generic VHSIC spaceborne computer (GVSC) as the target system. A simulation of the GVSC was also written on the code used in the ATAMM Multicomputer Operating System (AMOS). The simulation is used to verify the new model for tracking the propagation of the delay through the system and predicting the behavior of the transient state of recovery and restoration. The model is shown to accurately predict the transient behavior of an ATAMM based multicomputer during recovery and restoration.

Obando, Rodrigo A.↗

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗