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DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households, and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed information pertaining to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of individuals. Various synthetic population generators (SPGs) have been proposed to address this need. However, most of the SPGs currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature, and do not account for the interrelationships among household's or individual's life progression. This is a major shortcoming of SPGs as literature has shown that transportation decisions are impacted by lifecycle events that unfold over a span of time. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this shortcoming, they: i) are developed using cross-sectional data, ii) do not capture the full spectrum of lifecycle events and their interdependency. Overcoming these drawbacks, this paper proposes a Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) which captures the 'continuum of life' by accounting for a range of household-, and individual-level lifecycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, which is one of the world's longest running longitudinal surveys. DEMOS sub-models consider key lifecycle events which are influenced by a host of demographic variables. The whole framework is applied to evolve the population of San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results indicate that the household and individual evolution are tightly connected, and that the structural framework (i.e., model sequencing) is a key element in capturing the population trend accurately.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fort Erie Case Study - Transition from Fixed-Route to On-Demand Transit

Rural and smaller-sized communities in North America face unique mobility challenges due to their low population density, lower public transit spending per capita compared to major cities, and a high reliance on private vehicles. In recent years, communities such as Fort Erie, Ontario, have restructured or advanced their public transit systems using on-demand services. Fort Erie is a relatively sparsely populated region of 32,901 residents, spread across a land area of 166 square kilometers (64 square miles), for an average population density of 193 residents per square kilometer (500 per square mile). In October 2021, the town implemented a mobility-on-demand system integrated with smartphone software to replace its fixed-route community bus system, which consisted of four buses with three routes, each with a roughly 1-hour, one-way loop. The new service utilizes a fleet of six minivans, two of which are retrofitted with wheelchair-accessible ramps. The system may require that a passenger requesting a standard van walk up to 400 meters (a quarter mile) to their pickup location to optimize vehicle routing while providing origin-to-destination service. The on-demand system proved effective in providing service, eclipsing pre-pandemic ridership by 40%, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions per ride by 63%, and decreasing the cost to the town per ride by 29%. This report documents both the previous system and the new system in terms of routes, ridership, costs, fuel, and other notable system parameters. This work is part of an ongoing series of case studies on providing small communities with on-demand, right-sized vehicle service coupled with a smartphone application.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Superconductivity device comprising a phononic crystal

The invention is directed to a device and method to engineer the superconducting transition width by suppressing the phonon populations responsible for the Cooper-pair decoherence below the superconducting transition temperature via phononic bandgap engineering. The device uses phononic crystals to engineer a phononic frequency gap that suppresses the decohering thermal phonon population just below the Cooper-frequency, and thus the normal conduction electron population. For example, such engineering can relax the cooling requirements for a variety of circuits yielding higher operational quality factors for superconducting electronics and interconnects.

El-Kady, Ihab Fathy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Waffle Homes: Utilizing Aerial Imagery of Unfinished Buildings to Determine Average Room Size

A primary function of the Population Density Tables Project (PDT) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is to produce residential population densities per 1000 sq. ft. for each country and their associated first-level administrative units. This is accomplished by utilizing the average size of different types of dwelling areas (urban, rural, single-family, multi-family, etc.) and the average household size provided by a country’s Census or statistical bureau records. This data is available for the majority of Europe, North America, and large swathes of Asia, but is less easily found in Africa and South America. In these regions, Censuses generally report dwelling area by number of rooms, which poses the challenging question of how we can translate number of rooms to dwelling size when no dwelling size areas are available with which to compare. Using sub-meter resolution satellite imagery of Accra, Ghana, this challenge can be tackled using imagery of roofless buildings currently under construction that show the interior floor plan of the dwelling. A sample of buildings from the different neighborhoods of Accra can be digitized to provide an estimate and range of average room sizes of dwellings. This average room size can then be translated to a total dwelling area using the "number of rooms occupied by a household" variable from the Ghanaian Census. This intermediate step between average dwelling size and number of rooms occupied, fills the missing link that prevents PDT from continually producing new population densities for countries where dwelling size is unavailable through any official means.

Woody, Carson↗

DOE OSTI2024

Community Public Mobility Using On-Demand, Low-Speed Electric Vehicles: A Case Study in Downtown St. Louis, Missouri

Legacy fixed route transit systems designed to serve commuters struggle to provide efficient and effective service for short neighborhood trips and for population groups unable to access and egress transit stops using active modes (e.g., elderly, disabled). Neighborhood on-demand transit (ODT) services using low-speed electric vehicles (LSEV) are an innovative technological solution that can help fill this gap in service (e.g., short, high-frequency trips) for diverse populations and trip types. This study evaluated user characteristics and travel behavior for a neighborhood ODT service (using LSEVs) in downtown St. Louis, Missouri using responses from a community survey (n=244), ridership data, and vehicle trajectory information. A comparative analysis between neighborhood ODT, fixed route transit, and transportation network companies (TNC) was also conducted from the perspectives of total travel time, cost, and greenhouse gas emissions. Ultimately, the goal of the analysis was to motivate and inform holistic public mobility systems where different services are optimized to meet specific community needs. Findings indicate that the neighborhood ODT was effective at reaching diverse populations (elderly (20%), lower income (27%), and households with limited access to private vehicles (34%)). ODT reduced total travel time by 32% compared to fixed route transit, produced 2.4 - 4.3 times less greenhouse gas emissions per passenger mile (compared to transit and TNCs), and was more affordable (free to users) than alternative options ($1 for transit, $10-12 for TNCs). Overall satisfaction rates were high, with 80% of respondents rating the service a 4 or 5 out of 5.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Determining Cs-137 Background body burdens for Wild Pigs At Savannah River Site

Savannah River Site (SRS) is a unique U.S. Department of Energy facility in that most of the 310-square miles of land has not be industrialized since operations began in 1953. This has allowed abundant, undisturbed vegetation structure to exists as well as an increase in herd sizes among wildlife populations onsite. Cs-137 is widespread across SRS due to the production of nuclear materials, but is mostly from global atmospheric fallout from nuclear weapons testing. Due to most of SRS being undisturbed land, the concentrations of Cs-137 are higher on site than off site. The SRS began conducting annual deer harvests that were open to the public beginning in 1965. All animals harvested during these hunts are monitored for Cs-137, which is measured using a Sodium Iodide detector. There has been an effective method for calculating the background Cs-137 body burden for the deer population at the SRS, developed by Gaines and Novak using data collected during hunts and gamma overflight data to determine the areas contaminated by site activities. For animals that have a Cs-137 concentration above the established background level, a dose is assigned to the hunter. By applying the same method for wild pigs using data collected from hunts, gamma overflight, and developing a site-specific home range of wild pigs, we were able to calculate the Cs-137 background body burden concentrations of wild pigs on site. Objectives: Develop site-specific home range for wild pigs at SRS; Determine the average concentrations of Cs-137 in wild pigs from background; Use Gaines and Novak method for determining background Cs-137 body burdens wild pigs on SRS. Methods and Materials: Development of site-specific home range of wild pigs was determined to be 2.5 miles using: Four studies conducted between 1969 and 1992 for the SRS wild pig population. (Mayer and Brisbin) The background compartments were determined using: Gamma overflight data showing contaminated areas; Site-specific home range of the wild pigs. Results and Conclusion: All data were generated through the JMP software to provide a histogram and summary statistics. The estimate of an upper tolerance limit for the background contamination with 95% confidence is 1.965 pCi/g for the wild pigs. This means that for wild pigs on SRS from the background compartments are expected to have Cs-137 concentrations of less than 1.965 pCi/g. The current background for the deer is 2.59 pCi/g. For the background compartments Cs-137 concentrations from 2012-2018: Mean: 0.815 pCi/g, Maximum: 2.341 pCi/g, Minimum: -0.704 pCi/g.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Kinematically Hot, Extremely Metal-Poor C-19 Stellar Stream in DESI DR2

Stellar streams are the result of a host galaxy's gravitational potential tidally disrupting satellite dwarf galaxies and globular clusters (GCs), causing them to grow leading and trailing tidal tails. The C-19 stellar stream is an extremely metal-poor stellar population, showing chemical abundance patterns characteristic of a globular cluster. However, its large velocity dispersion is difficult to reconcile with a conventional, purely baryonic, disrupting-GC progenitor. Current techniques for stream characterization are primarily applied to Gaia DR3, relying heavily on proper motion measurements. Using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), which provides radial velocities and metallicites for over 10 million stars reaching significantly fainter magnitudes than comparable surveys, we employ a mixture model approach to jointly characterize stream populations in proper motions, radial velocities, and metallicities against a Milky Way halo background. By applying this framework to the C-19 stellar stream, we identify a total of 47 spectroscopically confirmed member stars, of which 41 are newly identified and only 6 were previously reported in the literature. In this work, we measure a velocity dispersion of $7.8^{+1.5}_{-1.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ and a mean metallicity of [Fe/H] = $-3.36^{+0.12}_{-0.10}$. We further identify a novel 'spur' feature within the stream. We conclude that our measurements are in line with previous works identifying C-19 as a 'hot', metal-poor stream. In forthcoming work, we will apply this approach to many more streams in the DESI footprint, enabling population-level comparisons with predictions from simulations.

Mohammed, Nasser [Toronto U.] (ORCID:0009000812240↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Kinematically Hot, Extremely Metal-Poor C-19 Stellar Stream in DESI DR2

Mohammed, Nasser [Toronto U.] (ORCID:0009000812240↗

DOE OSTI2024

Survival and behavior of Mojave desert tortoises head-started with and without outdoor rearing

Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) populations in some regions have declined by >50% since 2004, prompting the need for more research on ways to recover populations. One possible recovery tool is head-starting (i.e., the act of protecting and raising juvenile tortoises to sizes that increase survival upon release); however, head-starting can have high start-up and maintenance costs that can limit its feasibility. Strategies that reduce cost and rearing duration may foster broader and more effective use. We released and radio-tracked 60 juvenile tortoises in the Mojave National Preserve in California, USA, that had been reared under 2 treatments: those reared 1 year indoors after hatching, then 1 year outdoors (combo) and those reared just 1 year indoors (indoor-only). We tested whether indoor-only rearing alone could be a more efficient means of producing robust head-started tortoises. We examined the behavior, movement, and survival of tortoises after release into the wild from 2020 to 2021 to determine whether these outcomes differed between husbandry treatments. Combo tortoises tended to perform settling behaviors (mean ± 1 SE days to building first burrow = 6.7 ± 0.8, entering dormancy = 23.3 ± 2.1, and emerging from dormancy = 189.6 ± 4.4) earlier than indoor-only tortoises (7.4 ± 0.9, 31.5 ± 2.6, and 193.9 ± 5.9, respectively), but this difference was not significant, suggesting the rearing method did not greatly alter settling behavior. Indoor-only tortoises dispersed at least twice as far from their release site (156.2 ± 26.3 m compared with 77.3 ± 20.6 m for combo tortoises), had larger mean use areas (3.7 ± 0.1 ha compared with 2.8 ± 0.3 ha for combo tortoises for 95% Brownian bridge movement model estimates), and greater variability in their movements than combo tortoises (daily average step length post-emergence: 4.3 ± 0.2 m compared with 2.8 ± 0.1 m for combo tortoises). Despite differences in their movements, indoor-only and combo tortoises had similar survival rates over the study, 51% versus 42%, respectively, during a period of extreme drought in 2021. The similarity in survival between groups gives head-starting practitioners freedom in their rearing methods. The indoor-only group had lower site fidelity, which should be considered when this is an undesirable trait for released tortoises.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The DECam MAGIC Survey: Spectroscopic Follow-up of the Most Metal-poor Stars in the Distant Milky Way Halo *

In this work, we present high-resolution spectroscopic observations for six metal-poor stars with [Fe/H] < –3 (including one with [Fe/H] < –4), selected using narrowband Ca ii HK photometry from the DECam MAGIC Survey. The spectroscopic data confirm the accuracy of the photometric metallicities and allow for the determination of chemical abundances for 16 elements, from carbon to barium. The program stars have chemical abundances consistent with the [Fe/H] < –3 range. A kinematic/dynamical analysis suggests that all program stars belong to the distant Milky Way halo population (heliocentric distances 35 < d helio /kpc ≲ 55), including three with high-energy orbits that might have been associated with the Magellanic system and one, J0026−5445, having parameters consistent with being a member of the Sagittarius stream. The remaining two stars show kinematics consistent with the Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus dwarf galaxy merger. J0433−5548, with [Fe/H] = –4.12, is a carbon-enhanced ultra metal-poor star, with [C/Fe] = +1.73. This star is believed to be a bona fide second-generation star, and its chemical abundance pattern was compared with yields from metal-free supernova models. Results suggest that J0433−5548 could have been formed from a gas cloud enriched by a single supernova explosion from an ∼11 M ⊙ star in the early Universe. The successful identification of such objects demonstrates the reliability of photometric metallicity estimates, which can be used for target selection and statistical studies of faint targets in the Milky Way and its satellite population. These discoveries illustrate the power of measuring chemical abundances of metal-poor Milky Way halo stars to learn more about early galaxy formation and evolution.

CEMP stars↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing count data with measurement error

In this article, we analyze observed count data such as the number of defects in a steel product where the observed counts are the true counts measured with errors. We account for the measurement error by using a measurement error model based on a latent lognormal (LLN) distribution. We consider making inference about a single population (e.g., from samples of a production lot) and a regression model (e.g., from runs of a designed experiment), where the measurement system properties are known, that is, the parameters of the LLN distribution are known. Then, we consider simultaneous inference for the single population and regression model as well as the measurement system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with both simulated and real observed counts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Growth and survival rates of dispersing free embryos and settled larvae of pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the Missouri River, Montana and North Dakota

We released nearly 1.0 million 1-day post-hatch (dph) and 5-dph pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) free embryos in the Missouri River on 1 July 2019 and sequentially captured survivors at multiple sites through a 240-km river reach to quantify daily growth and survival rates during the early life stages. Genetic analysis was used to assign captured fish to released family lots and known ages. Growth rate was similar (0.74–0.75 mm day –1 ) between the 1- and 5-dph age groups during the 3–4-day dispersal period when water temperature averaged 16.8 °C. Daily survival rate was 0.64 during 1–4 dph for the original 1-dph age group and 0.80 during 5–7 dph for the original 5-dph age group. Total survival during free embryo dispersal (hatch to 9 dph) was estimated as 0.0437. The transition from dispersing as free embryos to settling as benthic larvae was verified for fish originally released as 5 dph. Growth of settled larvae was quantified with a Gompertz model through 75 dph (9 September; 112 mm) when water temperature was 18.8–21.0 °C in the rearing areas. Settled larvae had an estimated daily survival rate of 0.96, and estimated total survival during 9–75 dph was 0.0714. This study provides the first empirical survival estimates for pallid sturgeon early life stages in natural settings and is one of few studies reporting similar information for other sturgeon species. Applications of this work extend to pallid sturgeon restoration programs where population models are being developed to predict recruitment potential and population responses to river management alternatives.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of radioactive plume transport in the atmosphere including dynamics of particle aggregation and breakup

Accurate prediction of the atmospheric transport of debris particles relies heavily on our knowledge of the size distribution of the particles within a debris cloud. Assuming a fixed particle size during simulations is not always viable since the size distribution of the debris can change during transport. Various microphysical processes, such as aggregation and breakup, influence debris particles and dictate any changes to the size distribution. To track those changes that can occur, a population balance model can be adopted and instituted within a model framework. Nonetheless, many of the models that simulate the transport of radioactive debris following a device-driven fission incident have historically neglected to consider these processes. As such, this work describes our effort to develop a modeling framework capable of simulating the transport and deposition of a radioactive plume generated from a fission incident with a dynamic population balance including particle aggregation and breakup. Herein the impact of aggregation and breakup, individually and collectively, on the particle size distribution is explored using the developed framework. When simulating aggregation, for example, six mechanisms, including Brownian coagulation, the convective enhancement to Brownian coagulation, van der Waals-viscous force correction for Brownian coagulation, gravitational collection, turbulent inertial motion, and turbulent shear, are considered. Brownian coagulation and its corrections have, as one would expect, a large impact on relatively small aggregates. Aggregates with a diameter that is less than or equal to 1.0 μm, for instance, comprise 50.6 vol % of all aggregates in the absence of aggregation and 31.2 vol % when Brownian coagulation and its corrections are considered. Gravitational collection and, to a much lesser extent, turbulent shear and turbulent inertial motion are, conversely, of great importance to relatively large aggregates (i.e., diameter greater than 3.0 μm). Additionally, the individual effects of atmospheric and particle parameters, such as wind speed and particle density, are examined. Of the parameters examined, turbulent energy dissipation and aggregate fractal dimension (i.e., aggregate shape with lower values representing more irregular particles) were of substantial importance since both terms directly impact aggregate stability and, by extension, the breakup rate. Large-scale transport and deposition simulations in a dry atmosphere are also presented and discussed as a proof of concept.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Macroevolutionary diversity of traits and genomes in the model yeast genus Saccharomyces

Species is the fundamental unit to quantify biodiversity. In recent years, the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae has seen an increased number of studies related to its geographical distribution, population structure, and phenotypic diversity. However, seven additional species from the same genus have been less thoroughly studied, which has limited our understanding of the macroevolutionary events leading to the diversification of this genus over the last 20 million years. Here, we show the geographies, hosts, substrates, and phylogenetic relationships for approximately 1,800 Saccharomyces strains, covering the complete genus with unprecedented breadth and depth. We generated and analyzed complete genome sequences of 163 strains and phenotyped 128 phylogenetically diverse strains. This dataset provides insights about genetic and phenotypic diversity within and between species and populations, quantifies reticulation and incomplete lineage sorting, and demonstrates how gene flow and selection have affected traits, such as galactose metabolism. These findings elevate the genus Saccharomyces as a model to understand biodiversity and evolution in microbial eukaryotes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ecological trade-offs drive phenotypic and genetic differentiation of Arabidopsis thaliana in Europe

Plant diversity is shaped by trade-offs between traits related to competitive ability, propagule dispersal, and stress resistance. However, we still lack a clear understanding of how these trade-offs influence species distribution and population dynamics. In Arabidopsis thaliana , recent genetic analyses revealed a group of cosmopolitan genotypes that successfully recolonized Europe from its center after the last glaciation, excluding older (relict) lineages from the distribution except for their north and south margins. Here, we tested the hypothesis that cosmopolitans expanded due to higher colonization ability, while relicts persisted at the margins due to higher tolerance to competition and/or stress. We compared the phenotypic and genetic differentiation between 71 European genotypes originating from the center, and the south and north margins. We showed that a trade-off between plant fecundity and seed mass shapes the differentiation of A. thaliana in Europe, suggesting that the success of the cosmopolitan groups could be explained by their high dispersal ability. However, at both north and south margins, we found evidence of selection for alleles conferring low dispersal but highly competitive and stress-resistance abilities. This study sheds light on the role of ecological trade-offs as evolutionary drivers of the distribution and dynamics of plant populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ocean current patterns drive the worldwide colonization of eelgrass (Zostera marina)

Currents are unique drivers of oceanic phylogeography and thus determine the distribution of marine coastal species, along with past glaciations and sea-level changes. Here we reconstruct the worldwide colonization history of eelgrass (Zostera marina L.), the most widely distributed marine flowering plant or seagrass from its origin in the Northwest Pacific, based on nuclear and chloroplast genomes. We identified two divergent Pacific clades with evidence for admixture along the East Pacific coast. Two west-to-east (trans-Pacific) colonization events support the key role of the North Pacific Current. Time-calibrated nuclear and chloroplast phylogenies yielded concordant estimates of the arrival of Z. marina in the Atlantic through the Canadian Arctic, suggesting that eelgrass-based ecosystems, hotspots of biodiversity and carbon sequestration, have only been present there for ~243 ky (thousand years). Mediterranean populations were founded ~44 kya, while extant distributions along western and eastern Atlantic shores were founded at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (~19 kya), with at least one major refuge being the North Carolina region. The recent colonization and five- to sevenfold lower genomic diversity of the Atlantic compared to the Pacific populations raises concern and opportunity about how Atlantic eelgrass might respond to rapidly warming coastal oceans.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microevolution in the pansecondary metabolome of Aspergillus flavus and its potential macroevolutionary implications for filamentous fungi

Significance Secondary metabolites (SMs) produced by fungi mediate ecological interactions, define fungal niches, and are of profound pharmacological importance to humans. Most work on SMs has focused on a small number of individuals from each species, not fully reflecting the importance of intraspecific diversity. We demonstrate that even in one of the best-studied model fungi, the carcinogen-producing Aspergillus flavus , more than 25% of SM-producing biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs) are novel and/or show population-specific variants. These results support the finding that the organization of BGC diversity into population-specific patterns may sometimes result from ecologically important interactions and may inform evolutionary and etiological inferences of SM capacities within a species. Importantly, our work also presents a vision of sources of potential pharmaceuticals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nutrient availability and senescence spatially structure the dynamics of a foundation species

Significance Landscapes are spatially heterogeneous, and the measurement of spatial pattern is dependent upon observation scale. Understanding plant populations requires assessing their extrinsic interactions with the environment as well as intrinsic biological processes and has been difficult because of the inability to track both plant abundance and health on appropriate scales. We introduce remote sensing observations that assess the abundance and health of giant kelp, an important ecosystem-structuring species, over regional and local scales. We find that both extrinsic nutrient availability and intrinsic senescence processes regulate population dynamics but on regional and local scales, respectively. This suggests that future satellite missions will be able to assess plant abundance and health and their interactions with the environment on local to global scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗