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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

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DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive behavior and different thermal experiences of real people: A Bayesian neural network approach to thermal preference prediction and classification

Various observed and unquantifiable factors affect the thermal comfort of occupants in indoor environments and can lead to high uncertainty in the prediction and classification of their thermal preferences. The behavioral adaptation of occupants, by operating window systems for example, changes their thermal experience and expectations and therefore contributes to even higher prediction uncertainty. In this study, we applied a Bayesian neural network (BNN) algorithm to build a predictive model for occupant thermal preference using the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II. The Bayesian method allows us to synthesize prior knowledge and available measurements into a unified modeling framework. It also offers a way to express and quantify uncertainty. Here we have performed a systematic study to test the efficiency and robustness of different BNN model configurations. In this study, the results show that the BNN model outperforms conventional thermal comfort models such as Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and adaptive comfort model. The BNN model tends to produce more confident “prefer cooler” predictions with high possibility and low uncertainty. In contrast, the BNN model produces less certain predictions for “prefer no change” and “prefer warmer” across all occupants. Our findings suggest that linking occupants’ subjective evaluation measures and window opening/closing behavior to thermal comfort modeling effectively improves predictive performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predictive Engineering of Interfaces and Cathodes for High-Performance All Solid-State Lithium-Sulfur Batteries

The primary goal of this project is to leverage data-driven methods and machine learning strategies to develop accurate multi-physics models for all-solid-state Li-S battery (ASLSB) materials that can capture electrochemical and transport phenomena over atomic to mesoscopic length/timescales. These models will be rigorously validated by synthesis and advanced characterization experiments. The team will leverage the predictive power of these models, alongside synthesis/characterization experiments and battery fabrication to address longstanding issues at the electrode/electrolyte interfaces in ASLSBs. The project’s proposed technology involves the following: (1) halide-doped solid sulfide electrolytes that can concurrently provide high Li + ion conductivity and suppress dendrite growth; (2) novel mesoporous cathode composed of super-P and carbon nanotubes co-infiltrated with sulfur and sulfide electrolyte, which hold potential to allow high sulfur loading and optimal ion/electron pathways; and (3) functionalization of sulfide electrolyte with ionic liquids to improve physical contact and minimize impedance at the cathode/electrolyte interface. Successful development of proposed predictive models (at multiple scales) will bridge this knowledge gap and will advance fundamental understanding of reaction chemistry, kinetics, charge transfer, and dendrite growth at electrified SSIs. This will enable predictive design of effective strategies to mitigate interfacial problems in ASSLSBs, including poor interfacial contact, interfacial impedance to Li + ion transport, and poor electron/ion conduction within cathodes. Ultimately, the fundamental knowledge gained will lead to development of high-performance ASSLSBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mobility and Energy Improvements Realized through Prediction-based Vehicle Powertrain Control and Traffic Management (Research Performance Final Report)

The goal of this project was to utilize individual vehicle and systems-level transportation big data to develop real-world implementable techniques for energy efficiency. We collected a real world dataset in Fort Collins, CO using technology that is currently available. This dataset was used to (1) create individual vehicle prediction models and emissions models using cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, (2) create traffic prediction models, (3) create boundary condition constraints for optimal trajectory derivation, and (4) develop a novel Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) model for Fort Collins, CO at a fidelity and flexibility which did not previously exist. Each of these techniques is novel but the most interesting results occurred from the intersection of all techniques. It was found that when optimal vehicle control is combined with optimal traffic light control, that significant energy efficiency improvements that do not compromise travel time are available.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

BIPSPI+: Mining Type-Specific Datasets of Protein Complexes to Improve Protein Binding Site Prediction

Computational approaches for predicting protein-protein interfaces are extremely useful for understanding and modelling the quaternary structure of protein assemblies. In particular, partner-specific binding site prediction methods allow delineating the specific residues that compose the interface of protein complexes. In recent years, new machine learning and other algorithmic approaches have been proposed to solve this problem. However, little effort has been made in finding better training datasets to improve the performance of these methods. With the aim of vindicating the importance of the training set compilation procedure, in this work we present BIPSPI+, a new version of our original server trained on carefully curated datasets that outperforms our original predictor. We show how prediction performance can be improved by selecting specific datasets that better describe particular types of protein interactions and interfaces (e.g. homo/hetero). In addition, our upgraded web server offers a new set of functionalities such as the sequence-structure prediction mode, hetero- or homo-complex specialization and the guided docking tool that allows to compute 3D quaternary structure poses using the predicted interfaces. BIPSPI+ is freely available at https://bipspi.cnb.csic.es.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning models of intermittent operation of RO wellhead water treatment for salinity reduction and nitrate removal

Machine learning models were developed for intermittent multi-mode operation of a wellhead reverse osmosis water purification and desalination system to predict salt passage, nitrate passage, and permeate flux. The models, based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture, included an attention mechanism to increase model performance in proximity of the regulatory limit for nitrate. Training and testing of the models for the Startup, Production, Shutdown and Flushing operational modes were based on operational data (consisting of 22 process variables per data sample) acquired every 2–5 s over a six-month period. The significant sets of model input attributes for the different operational modes were assessed via Spearman ranking correlation, Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analysis and feed forward feature selection (FFFS). Although the variability of nitrate passage, salt passage and permeate flux was significant over the four operational modes, prediction performance for the three outcomes were with R2 and Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE) of 0.78–0.95 and 2.96–6.16 %, respectively. Model updates post membrane elements replacement demonstrated similar levels of prediction accuracy. The study results suggest that there is merit in exploring the utility of multi-mode models for sensor fault detection, data imputation, and for potential use in model-predictive control.

Intermittent RO operation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of QSAR models to predict blood-brain barrier permeability

Assessing drug permeability across the blood-brain barrier (BBB) is important when evaluating the abuse potential of new pharmaceuticals as well as developing novel therapeutics that target central nervous system disorders. One of the gold-standard in vivo methods for determining BBB permeability is rodent log BB; however, like most in vivo methods, it is time-consuming and expensive. In the present study, two statistical-based quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed to predict BBB permeability of drugs based on their chemical structure. The in vivo BBB permeability data were harvested for 921 compounds from publicly available literature, non-proprietary drug approval packages, and University of Washington’s Drug Interaction Database. The cross-validation performance statistics for the BBB models ranged from 82 to 85% in sensitivity and 80–83% in negative predictivity. Additionally, the performance of newly developed models was assessed using an external validation set comprised of 83 chemicals. Overall, performance of individual models ranged from 70 to 75% in sensitivity, 70–72% in negative predictivity, and 78–86% in coverage. The predictive performance was further improved to 93% in coverage by combining predictions across the two software programs. These new models can be rapidly deployed to predict blood brain barrier permeability of pharmaceutical candidates and reduce the use of experimental animals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Flood Predictability in Taiwan through Coupled Atmospheric–Hydrological and High-Performance Hydrodynamic Models

Effective flood simulation capabilities can tremendously support early warning and disaster prevention. To examine the applicability of a fully physics-based and high-performance flood simulation and forecasting modeling framework for a flood-prone region in Taiwan, we conduct a numerical experiment that couples the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, WRF-Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), and the Two-Dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) to perform integrated rainfall, streamflow, and flood simulations. Furthermore, we first use the coupled WRF and WRF-Hydro (WWH) to predict rainfall and streamflow and then drive TRITON with the predicted streamflow hydrographs to simulate flood depth and inundation area. With the refined spatial resolution and parameterization, this framework can better predict rainfall with reasonable spatial patterns. Although WWH could overestimate the amount of rainfall in some areas, the uncertain rainfall–streamflow predictions produce reasonable flood maps able to pinpoint regions at risk of flooding. In terms of model efficiency, the graphics processing unit–based computation can yield a speed-up factor as high as ∼13 compared to the central processing unit–based computation, promoting the efficacy of the coupled modeling framework in practical real-time flood forecasting.

Coupled models↗

DOE OSTI2020

Long term predictions of coal fired power plant data using evolved recurrent neural networks

Abstract This work presents an investigation into the ability of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to provide long term predictions of time series data generated by coal fired power plants. While there are numerous studies which have used artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict coal plant parameters, to the authors’ knowledge these have almost entirely been restricted to predicting values at the next time step, and not farther into the future. Using a novel neuro-evolution strategy called Evolutionary eXploration of Augmenting Memory Models (EXAMM), we evolved RNNs with advanced memory cells to predict per-minute plant parameters and per-hour boiler parameters up to 8 hours into the future. These data sets were challenging prediction tasks as they involve spiking behavior in the parameters being predicted. While the evolved RNNs were able to successfully predict the spikes in the hourly data they did not perform very well in accurately predicting their severity. The per-minute data proved even more challenging as medium range predictions miscalculated the beginning and ending of spikes, and longer range predictions reverted to long term trends and ignored the spikes entirely. We hope this initial study will motivate further study into this highly challenging prediction problem. The use of fuel properties data generated by a new Coal Tracker Optimization (CTO) program was also investigated and this work shows that their use improved predictive ability of the evolved RNNs.

Automation & Control Systems↗

DOE OSTI2022

Resilience Enhancements through Deep Learning Yields

This report documents the Resilience Enhancements through Deep Learning Yields (REDLY) project, a three-year effort to improve electrical grid resilience by developing scalable methods for system operators to protect the grid against threats leading to interrupted service or physical damage. The computational complexity and uncertain nature of current real-world contingency analysis presents significant barriers to automated, real-time monitoring. While there has been a significant push to explore the use of accurate, high-performance machine learning (ML) model surrogates to address this gap, their reliability is unclear when deployed in high-consequence applications such as power grid systems. Contemporary optimization techniques used to validate surrogate performance can exploit ML model prediction errors, which necessitates the verification of worst-case performance for the models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging transfer learning and leaf spectroscopy for leaf trait prediction with broad spatial, species, and temporal applicability

Accurate and reliable prediction of leaf traits is crucial for understanding plant adaptations to environmental variation, monitoring terrestrial ecosystems, and enhancing comprehension of functional diversity and ecosystem functioning. Currently, various approaches (e.g., statistical, physical models) have been developed to estimate leaf traits through hyperspectral remote sensing and leaf spectroscopy. However, the absence of high-performing, transferable, and stable models across various domains of space, plant functional types (PFTs) and seasons hinder our ability to quantify and comprehend spatiotemporal variations in leaf traits. This study proposes robust and highly transferable models for better predicting leaf traits with hyperspectral reflectance. Initially, three datasets were assembled, pairing common leaf traits — chlorophyll (Chla+b), carotenoids (Ccar), leaf mass per area (LAM), equivalent water thickness (EWT) — with leaf spectra measurements collected across diverse geographic locations in the U.S. and Europe, PFTs, and seasons. Measurements were acquired using spectroradiometers (e.g., ASD FieldSpec 3/4/Pro and SVC HR-1024i) with integrating spheres, leaf clips, and contact probes. Here, we then developed transfer learning-based hybrid models that incorporated the domain knowledge of radiative transfer models (RTMs) through pretraining processes and were well-constrained by fine-tuning with field measurements. Through comparison with other state-of-the-art statistical models, including partial-least squares regression (PLSR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), as well as pure physical models, we found that the proposed transfer learning models achieved better predictive performance and higher transferability. Specifically, compared to other statistical models and pure RTMs, the transfer learning model exhibited higher coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values with range of 0.01 to 0.79, lower normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) with range of 0.06 % to 33.25 % in model performance. Additionally, the models exhibited improved transferability, with higher R 2 values range from 0.04 to 0.32, lower NRMSE range from 0.08 % to 30.81 %. The findings underscore that transfer learning models through integrating domain knowledge from RTMs and limited observations, can harness the advantages of both RTMs and statistical models and serve as a promising approach for effectively predicting leaf traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Numerical study to predict the effect of surface roughness on the thermal and hydraulic performance of additively manufactured heat exchangers

Heat exchangers are used in many industries to transfer thermal energy between two or more objects with an associated thermal and hydraulic performance indicated by thermal effectiveness and pressure drop respectively. Many investigations have aimed to enhance the thermal effectiveness of heat exchangers by introducing turbulent flow inducers that increase the heat transfer rate at the expense of increasing pressure drop. Flow inducers like surface roughness can be controlled with advanced manufacturing methods like additive manufacturing for heat exchanger production. Selecting and manufacturing an optimal surface roughness for heat exchangers requires a more comprehensive approach that accounts for the surface roughness effect on the thermal and hydraulic performance of a sample. Since fabricating samples with additive manufacturing to a desired surface roughness can be an extensive experimental process, this study will fundamentally investigate the effect of surface roughness on the thermal and velocity boundary layers for various surface roughness profiles with physics-based computational modeling. To accurately model the surface roughness effect on thermohydraulic performance, correlations like roughness ratio, friction factor, and Nusselt number are investigated. This study expects to indicate correlations for different flow regimes which can successfully predict the effect of surface roughness on thermohydraulic performance. Results generated from modeling surface roughness effect with unique correlations are then compared to experimental data obtained from literature for validation. The results of this study will provide insight to understand the thermal fluid physics associated with surface roughness and design guidelines for heat exchangers produced with additive manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Elucidating the Role of Hydrogen Bond Donor and Acceptor on Solvation in Deep Eutectic Solvents Formed by Ammonium/Phosphonium Salts and Carboxylic Acids

Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) constitute a rapidly emerging class of sustainable liquids that have been widely studied and employed in chemical separations, catalysis, and electrochemistry. The unique physicochemical and solvation properties of DESs can be highly tailored by choosing the appropriate hydrogen bond acceptor (HBA) and hydrogen bond donor (HBD). Understanding the role of the HBA and HBD on the multiple solvation interactions in DESs is important to enable their judicious selection for particular applications. As such, this work constitutes the first study to exploit chromatography to measure solute–solvent interactions of DESs using a wide array of known probe molecules. The constituent components of 20 DESs, formed by ammonium and phosphonium-based salts and carboxylic acids, are systematically modulated to delineate the contribution of the HBA and HBD toward individual solvation properties. Solute–solvent interactions measured in this study are used to interpret and explain the performance of DESs in desulfurization of fuels and extraction of natural products. The results from this study can be used to predict and understand the performance of DESs in various chemical processes where solvation interactions heavily influence outcomes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quasilinear theory and modelling of gyrokinetic turbulent transport in tokamaks

The theory, development, and validation of reduced quasilinear models of gyrokinetic turbulent transport in the closed flux surface core of tokamaks is reviewed. In combination with neoclassical collisional transport, these models are successful in accurately predicting core tokamak plasma temperature, density, rotation, and impurity profiles in a variety of confinement regimes. Refined experimental tests have been performed to validate the predictions of the quasilinear models, probing changes in the dominant gyrokinetic instabilities, as reflected in fluctuation measurements, cross-phases, and transport properties. These tests continue to produce a deeper understanding of the complex mix of instabilities at both electron and ion gyroradius scales.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of the age-included nearest pair distribution in disperse multiphase flows

The age of the nearest particle pair is introduced as the difference between the current time and the most recent time when the nearest particle pair was formed. The evolution equation for the age-included nearest pair distribution function is derived. With the assumption of random destruction of the nearest particle pairs, the evolution equation predicts the exponential probability distribution of the ages of the nearest particle pairs. Particle-resolved numerical simulations with moving particles are performed to verify this prediction. The equation is then used to derive the evolution equation for the particle–fluid–particle (PFP) stress, which is known to be related to hyperbolicity of the two-fluid equations. It is found that the relaxation time of the age probability distribution is also the relaxation time for the PFP stress. Guided by the closure terms in the PFP stress evolution equation, we study kinematics of the nearest particle pairs in the particle-resolved simulations for flows caused by sedimentation of the particles with initially isotropic and homogeneous particle distributions. At the steady states, the particle Reynolds numbers are around 20. Anisotropy and inhomogeneity of particle distributions are seen to develop in these flows. The mean distances to the nearest particles and evolution of the distribution of the Voronoi cell volumes are studied. We also found the PFP stress is closely related to the changes in these inter-particle scale quantities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temperature-based reactive flow model for triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB) plastic bonded explosives

A new reactive flow model is presented for triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB)-based plastic bonded explosives, applicable to shock initiation and steady detonation problems of differing initial temperature. Temperature disequilibrium is assumed between unreacted explosive, material in the vicinity of compressed defects (called hot spots), and reaction products. The model incorporates temperature-dependent decomposition reaction rates. Particularly, Arrhenius model parameters were derived from quantum-based molecular dynamics simulations of TATB decomposition. Further, a model of detonation carbon aggregation is incorporated, describing the slow release of energy inherent to detonation in TATB-based materials. Model parameters were calibrated against gas gun shock initiation experiments and steady detonation rate stick tests. The predictive ability of the model in the shock initiation regime is tested against recent thin pulse experiments. The model is found to perform equally well in predicting the size-effect curve of ambient, cold, and hot rate sticks. The present work demonstrates the viability of incorporating results from subscale simulations into a continuum-scale reactive flow model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computational Materials Design for Ceramic Nuclear Waste Forms Using Machine Learning, First-Principles Calculations, and Kinetics Rate Theory

Ceramic waste forms are designed to immobilize radionuclides for permanent disposal in geological repositories. One of the principal criteria for the effective incorporation of waste elements is their compatibility with the host material. In terms of performance under environmental conditions, the resistance of the waste forms to degradation over long periods of time is a critical concern when they are exposed to natural environments. Due to their unique crystallographic features and behavior in nature environment as exemplified by their natural analogues, ceramic waste forms are capable of incorporating problematic nuclear waste elements while showing promising chemical durability in aqueous environments. Recent studies of apatite- and hollandite-structured waste forms demonstrated an approach that can predict the compositions of ceramic waste forms and their long-term dissolution rate by a combination of computational techniques including machine learning, first-principles thermodynamics calculations, and modeling using kinetic rate equations based on critical laboratory experiments. By integrating the predictions of elemental incorporation and degradation kinetics in a holistic framework, the approach could be promising for the design of advanced ceramic waste forms with optimized incorporation capacity and environmental degradation performance. Such an approach could provide a path for accelerated ceramic waste form development and performance prediction for problematic nuclear waste elements.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

A quantitative assessment of the model form error of friction models across different interface representations for jointed structures

Hysteretic models are widely used to model frictional interactions in joints to recreate experimental behavior. However, it is unclear which models are best suited for fitting or predicting the responses of structures. Here, the present study evaluates 26 friction model/interface representation combinations to quantify the model form error. A Quasi-Static Modal Analysis approach (termed Rayleigh Quotient Nonlinear Modal Analysis) is adopted to calculate the nonlinear system response, and a Multi-Objective Optimization is solved to fit experimental data of the first mode of the Brake-Reuß Beam. Optimized parameters from the first mode are applied to the second and third bending modes to quantify the predictive ability of the models. Formulations for both tracing full hysteresis loops and recreating hysteresis loops from a single loading curve (Masing assumptions) are considered. Smoothly varying models applied to a five patch representation showed the highest flexibility (for fitting mode 1) and good predictive potential (for modes 2 and 3). For a second formulation, which uses 152 frictional elements to represent the interface, the physically motivated spring in series with a Coulomb slip model (elastic dry friction) has high error for fitting mode 1 and performs near the middle for predicting higher modes. For both interface representation, the best fit models are not the most physical, but rather the ones with the most parameters (as expected); however, the more physical models perform somewhat better for predicting the higher modes.

42 ENGINEERING↗