Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “performance model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Empirical Model of 10 – 130 MeV Solar Energetic Particle Spectra at 1 AU Based on Coronal Mass Ejection Speed and Direction

We present a new empirical model to predict solar energetic particle (SEP) event integrated and peak intensity spectra between 10 and 130 MeV at 1 AU, based on multi-point spacecraft measurements from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment. The analyzed data sample includes 32 SEP events occurring between 2010 and 2014, with a statistically significant proton signal at energies in excess of a few tens of MeV, unambiguously recorded at three spacecraft locations. The spatial distributions of SEP intensities are reconstructed by assuming an energy-dependent 2D Gaussian functional form, and accounting for the correlation between the intensity and the speed of the parent coronal mass ejection (CME), and the magnetic-field-line connection angle. The CME measurements used are from the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI). The model performance, including its extrapolations to lower/higher energies, is tested by comparing with the spectra of 20 SEP events not used to derive the model parameters. Despite the simplicity of the model, the observed and predicted event-integrated and peak intensities at Earth and at the STEREO spacecraft for these events show remarkable agreement, both in the spectral shapes and their absolute values.

Alessandro Bruno↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Pipeline for Earth Science Using Sagemaker

Machine learning (ML) is gaining popularity in the Earth science domain. Higher the amount of quality data, the better the model. CPU training of such ML models is slow; GPU is used for training. Maintaining GPU servers is an additional responsibility. Multiple iterations of experiments needed before a better performing model is trained. Dataset creation, versioning of datasets, models, and experiments is hard.

Iksha Gurung↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decoding Golden Eagle Movement Behavior from High-Resolution, Variable-Rate Telemetry Data Through Bayesian Filtering

The recent advances in animal tracking technology have enabled the collection of a vast amount of in situ data regarding the movement of wildlife at high spatiotemporal resolution. These data are usually available at variable time resolutions and contains noise (error) originating from GPS fixes. Decoding movement characteristics, particularly of flying animals, from telemetry data while handling these factors is a challenging yet important task for conservation purposes. Typically, this task is broken into two subtasks: resampling, and model calibration. The resampling subtask converts the variable rate positional data into a constant time interval data, while the model calibration subtask uses the resampled data to tune time-invariant parameters of the proposed models. For telemetry data at high temporal resolutions (order of 1 second), it is very challenging to decouple noise from actual movements using interpolation-based resampling techniques. Any errors introduced during resampling can significantly alter the the calibration and prediction attributes of the movement model. We address this problem through a unified Bayesian state-space framework that can handle both the resampling and calibration tasks in a single step. In addition, we use the speed and heading of the bird from telemetry data to regularize the position information of the bird. We use a Kalman filtering approach to include these nonlinearly related motion parameters within the state space framework. We cross-validated to quantify how this inclusion affects the model performance in estimating true bird movements. The relationship between the true state of the bird and environmental and topographical covariates is then represented parametrically. These parameters are then tuned using stochastic sampling strategies like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We use the telemetry data collected from golden eagles in the western USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to build a predictive, probabilistic movement model. Our preliminary results show that this approach provides improved predictive performance in terms of capturing higher-order motion parameters such as angular and horizontal accelerations, which may have simpler and more direct relationships with environmental covariates than corresponding speeds. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this state-space approach benefits the prediction capabilities of a movement model in simulating golden eagle paths through a wind power plant in Wyoming given certain atmospheric conditions. The model outcomes are aimed at informing mitigation strategies that can minimize the potential for collisions of golden eagles with wind turbines.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Assessment of U-Net-Based Deep Learning Models for Segmenting Microfractures and Pore Spaces in Digital Rocks

Segmentation of high-resolution X-ray microcomputed tomography (µCT) images is crucial in digital rock physics (DRP), affecting the characterization and analysis of microscale phenomena in the porous media. The complexity of geological structures and nonideal scanning conditions pose significant challenges to conventional image segmentation approaches. Motivated by the recent increasing popularity of deep learning (DL) techniques in image processing, this work undertakes a comparative study of DL models, specifically U-Net and its variants, for segmenting multiple targets with distinguished features in digital rocks, including discrete fracture networks (DFNs), pore spaces, and solid rock. Particularly, DFNs have a smaller volumetric fraction over others, bringing in a substantial challenge of imbalanced segmentation. The primary focus is to evaluate the architecture and feature enhancement strategies of various DL models, including U-Net, attention U-Net, residual U-Net, U-Net++, and residual U-Net++. The models were designed as 2.5D, utilizing a central 2D image and its two adjacent upper and lower 2D images as input to provide a pseudo-3D context. In addition, because the ground truth of segmentation was unknown for real-world digital rocks, we created a benchmark data set following the inverse operations of segmentation. The data synthesis started from the label images (i.e., solid rock, pore spaces, and DFNs), followed by simulating partial volume blurring, adding random background noise, and introducing ring artifacts to mimic real raw X-ray µCT images. The data set, which included various rock types (i.e., sandstone and artificial data), scanning resolution, and magnitudes of noise and artifacts, was divided into training and testing data sets with a 90% and 10% ratio, respectively. Moreover, in addition to the conventional pixel-wise evaluation metrics, the physics-based metric of the lattice-Boltzmann method (LBM) simulated permeability provided more comprehensive assessments. The results demonstrated that the residual connections, nested architectures, and redesigned skip connections contribute to the model performance and give the residual U-Net++ the highest accuracy. The improvements were mainly on the boundaries and small targets, especially the DFNs, which dominate the interconnectivity and therefore affect the permeability greatly. This study also rigorously evaluated the efficiency and generalization of each model, demonstrating that the sophisticated architectures achieved excellent practicability and maintained robust performance on completely unseen data, ensuring their suitability for diverse and challenging DRP applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

New insights into fuel blending effects: Intermolecular chemical kinetic interactions affecting autoignition times and intermediate-temperature heat release

Fuel blending effects on chemically-dominated fuel properties, such as gasoline anti-knock quality, are influenced by fundamental chemical kinetic interactions between the blending agent and the base fuel. Historically, quantification of such interactions has focused on changes to the radical pool, including $\dot{O}$H and HO 2 , while intermolecular interactions pertaining to carbonated, non-fuel-specific intermediates are typically overlooked. In this regard, this work aims to derive new insight into intermolecular chemical kinetic interactions that are intrinsic to fuel blending effects via a case study on blends of 0–30% ethanol (by volume) into FGF-LLNL (a multi-component gasoline surrogate for FACE-F research gasoline) using a rapid compression machine at a diluted/stoichiometric fuel loading, compressed pressure of 40 bar and low- to intermediate-temperature regimes that are representative of boosted SI engine operation. Ethanol blending effects on the intermediate temperature heat release (ITHR) of FGF-LLNL are characterized using experimental measurements, where ethanol is found to promote the extent of ITHR and suppress the transition from ITHR to main ignition. Chemical kinetic modeling is undertaken using a recently updated gasoline surrogate model. Sensitivity analyses on ITHR characteristics further corroborate the ethanol blending effects, and highlight the significant dependence of ITHR on both fuel-specific and non-fuel-specific reactions. An approach allowing comprehensive characterization of the complex intermolecular chemical kinetic interactions between constitutes in a fuel blend is then proposed. Application of the approach to FGF-LLNL/E0–E30 reveals that ethanol perturbs the heat release and autoignition characteristics of FGF-LLNL not only by directly changing the $\dot{O}$H and HO 2 radical pools via fuel-specific reactions, but also through intermolecular interactions where participating intermediates can be produced and consumed by various sub-chemistries. Disabling the intermolecular interactions in carbonated species between ethanol and FGF-LLNL sub-chemistries leads to somewhat slower ITHR evolution and lower ignition reactivity. The role of the individual intermolecular interaction is also characterized using the proposed approach. Lastly, implications of intermolecular interactions for future studies that aim to improve model performance are highlighted, where it is found that further investigations on the core C0-C4 chemistry are needed for developing highly accurate chemistry models for complex fuel blends.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning and deep learning for mineralogy interpretation and CO 2 saturation estimation in geological carbon Storage: A case study in the Illinois Basin

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising approach to simultaneously maintaining energy security and reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions under the current energy portfolio that is dominated by fossil fuel energy. Pre-injection formation characterization and post-injection CO 2 monitoring are two critical tasks to guarantee storage efficiency in CCS. The CCS projects in the Illinois Basin, the first large-scale CO 2 injection into saline aquifers in the United States, employed conventional and the latest pulsed neutron logging (PNL) tools for mineralogy interpretation and CO 2 saturation estimation, which provide valuable references for future CCS projects. Because of the inherent fuzziness of petrophysical measurements and complex subsurface heterogeneity, interpreting well-logging data is time-consuming, and its accuracy can be user-biased. In recent years, data-driven methods have been widely used to capture the non-linear patterns between input features and interpretation results. This work applied and evaluated four commonly used machine learning (ML) models, including ridge regression (RR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression (GBR), support vector regression (SVR), and one deep learning (DL) model, the artificial neural network (ANN). We optimized the hyperparameters of the four ML models and the DL model using the simulated annealing algorithm and the grid search strategy, respectively. The input features of the mineralogy interpretation models were eleven conventional well-logging parameters, and the label data (i.e., ground truth) were the porosity and volumetric fractions of six minerals, including quartz, feldspar, dolomite, calcite, clay, and iron minerals. The results demonstrated that the GBR and RF models were superior in predicting volumetric fractions of minerals and porosity; label data with low coefficient of variation (CV) values tended to yield better performance. For CO 2 saturation estimation, the RF was the best-performing model, followed by SVR, ANN, GBR, and RR. Furthermore, we conducted feature importance ranking using the permutation importance algorithm and found that the formation sigma and well pressure were the most important features in this study. In conclusion, the study of CCS projects in the Illinois Basin bridges the gap between the limited knowledge and understanding of geological carbon storage and the increasing demand for reliable, cost-effective, and sustainable energy solutions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Waveform processing using neural network algorithms on the front-end electronics

In a multi-channel radiation detector readout system, waveform sampling, digitization, and raw data transmission to the data acquisition system constitute a conventional processing chain. The deposited energy on the sensor is estimated by extracting peak amplitudes, area under pulse envelopes from the raw data, and starting times of signals or time of arrivals. However, such quantities can be estimated using machine learning algorithms on the front-end Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), often termed as “edge computing”. Edge computation offers enormous benefits, especially when the analytical forms are not fully known or the registered waveform suffers from noise and imperfections of practical implementations. In this work, we aim to predict peak amplitude from a single waveform snippet whose rising and falling edges containing only 3 to 4 samples. We thoroughly studied two well-accepted neural network algorithms, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) by varying their model sizes. Further, to better fit front-end electronics, neural network model reduction techniques, such as network pruning methods and variable-bit quantization approaches, were also studied. By combining pruning and quantization, our best performing model has the size of 1.5 KB, reduced from 16.6 KB of its full model counterpart. It can reach mean absolute error of 0.034 comparing to that of a naive baseline of 0.135. Such parameter-efficient and predictive neural network models established feasibility and practicality of their deployment on front-end ASICs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data imbalance in drug response prediction: multi-objective optimization approach in deep learning setting

Abstract Drug response prediction (DRP) methods tackle the complex task of associating the effectiveness of small molecules with the specific genetic makeup of the patient. Anti-cancer DRP is a particularly challenging task requiring costly experiments as underlying pathogenic mechanisms are broad and associated with multiple genomic pathways. The scientific community has exerted significant efforts to generate public drug screening datasets, giving a path to various machine learning models that attempt to reason over complex data space of small compounds and biological characteristics of tumors. However, the data depth is still lacking compared to application domains like computer vision or natural language processing domains, limiting current learning capabilities. To combat this issue and improves the generalizability of the DRP models, we are exploring strategies that explicitly address the imbalance in the DRP datasets. We reframe the problem as a multi-objective optimization across multiple drugs to maximize deep learning model performance. We implement this approach by constructing Multi-Objective Optimization Regularized by Loss Entropy loss function and plugging it into a Deep Learning model. We demonstrate the utility of proposed drug discovery methods and make suggestions for further potential application of the work to achieve desirable outcomes in the healthcare field.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2020

NEON AOP foliar trait maps, maps of model uncertainty estimates, and conifer map, East River, CO 2018

This data package contains mapped trait estimates and their uncertainties, and conifer map, for the National Ecological Observatory Network's Airborne Observation Platform survey data acquired over the Upper East River, Colorado in 2018. For full details, please see associated reference. in brief, trait models were developed independently for needle and non-needle leaf species using partial least squares regression (PLSR) using ground data from additional datasets: doi:10.15485/1618130, doi:10.15485/1618132, and doi:10.15485/1631278, merged with extracted spectral data from doi:10.15485/1618131. We separated vegetated pixels into needle and non-needle classes in order to generate a classification map based on the spectral differences between these leaf types (conifer.tif). We trained a deep learning model with custom architecture, detailed in Chadwick et al. In Press. The model performed with 0.998 true positive rate and 0.982 true negative rate, with ‘positives’ being non-needle identification. We then utilized PLSR to generate models of foliar traits for each leaf type. So that we could also map uncertainty in these predictions, we generated ten different models for needle and non-needle leaf species using different testing holdout sets of discrete sites. Each of these models was developed with a 100-fold cross validation procedure that utilized a 70% training set and 30% validation set with each fold, and then assessed based on the 10% of testing sites that were not included in that model’s development. The mean predicted value across the 10 models is used for the trait estimate in each pixel across the study area. The models are applied according to the leaf type designation in the conifer.tif map. The errors are the standard deviation across the 10 different models developed, with high error suggesting instability in model prediction and areas where values may not be reliable for ecological inference. These maps are only applied to areas with a NDVI > 0.5 to exclude non-vegetated areas. Shade masks could be applied to these data (doi:10.15485/1618131), but have not been for this data package. These data are also available on Google Earth Engine: https://code.earthengine.google.com/?asset=users/kdc/ER_NEON

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1977

Structural model integrity

Many of the practical aspects and problems of ensuring the integrity of a structural model are discussed, as well as the steps which have been taken in the NASTRAN system to assure that these checks can be routinely performed. Model integrity as used applies not only to the structural model but also to the loads applied to the model. Emphasis is also placed on the fact that when dealing with substructure analysis, all of the checking procedures discussed should be applied at the lowest level of substructure prior to any coupling.

Wallerstein, D. V.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Mars Propellant Liquefaction Modeling in Thermal Desktop

NASAs current Mars architectures are assuming the production and storage of 23 tons of liquid oxygen on the surface of Mars over a duration of 500+ days. In order to do this in a mass efficient manner, an energy efficient refrigeration system will be required. Based on previous analysis NASA has decided to do all liquefaction in the propulsion vehicle storage tanks. In order to allow for transient Martian environmental effects, a propellant liquefaction and storage system for a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) was modeled using Thermal Desktop. The model consisted of a propellant tank containing a broad area cooling loop heat exchanger integrated with a reverse turbo Brayton cryocooler. Cryocooler sizing and performance modeling was conducted using MAV diurnal heat loads and radiator rejection temperatures predicted from a previous thermal model of the MAV. A system was also sized and modeled using an alternative heat rejection system that relies on a forced convection heat exchanger. Cryocooler mass, input power, and heat rejection for both systems were estimated and compared against sizing based on non-transient sizing estimates.

Cryogenics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Cognitive States Using Machine Learning Fusion Paradigms to Reduce Model Uncertainty

The development of a synergetic system between humans and technology is a challenge that the scientific community has been facing for many years. Our aeronautic research aims to enhance this synergy between humans and machines through predictive human performance modeling for systems to mitigate high-risk situations. By being able to predict and anticipate human states, the crew monitoring system should be able to adjust and support the pilot for aviation safety. Our work focusing on attention-related human performance-limiting states (AHPLS) that impact a pilot’s performance and introduce high-risk catastrophic situations [1]. For example, AHPLS has been cited as a causal factor in more than 50% of all loss control in flight and thus contributes significantly toward commercial aviation fatalities [1, 2]. Cognitive state and its physiological fingerprint can be valuable information for this detecting AHPLS, but human cognitive state detection is still a major limitation for these crew monitoring systems.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Semi-supervised permutation invariant particle-level anomaly detection

The development of analysis methods to distinguish potential beyond the Standard Model phenomena in a model-agnostic way can significantly enhance the discovery reach in collider experiments. However, the typical machine learning (ML) algorithms employed for this task require fixed length and ordered inputs that break the natural permutation invariance in collision events. To address this, a semi-supervised anomaly detection tool is presented that takes a variable number of particle-level inputs and leverages a signal model to encode this information into a permutation invariant, event-level representation via supervised training with a Particle Flow Network (PFN). Data events are then encoded into this representation and given as input to an autoencoder for unsupervised ANomaly deTEction on particLe flOw latent sPacE (ANTELOPE), classifying anomalous events based on a low-level and permutation invariant input modeling. Performance of the ANTELOPE architecture is evaluated on simulated samples of hadronic processes in a high energy collider experiment, showing good capability to distinguish disparate models of new physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-module-based CVAE to predict HVCM faults in the SNS accelerator

We present a multi-module framework based on Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) to detect anomalies in the power signals coming from multiple High Voltage Converter Modulators (HVCMs). We condition the model with the specific modulator type to capture different representations of the $\mathcal{normal}$ waveforms and to improve the sensitivity of the model to identify a specific type of fault when we have limited samples for a given module type. We studied several Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architectures for our CVAE model and evaluated the model performance by looking at their loss landscape for stability and generalization. Our results for the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) experimental data show that the trained model generalizes well to detecting multiple fault types for several HVCM module types. The results of this study can be used to improve the HVCM reliability and overall SNS uptime.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs): an integrated observational data product supporting process-oriented investigations and diagnostics

A large and ever-growing body of geophysical information is measured in campaigns and at specialized observatories as a part of scientific expeditions and experiments. These collections of observed data include many essential climate variables (as defined by the Global Climate Observing System) but are often distinguished by a wide range of additional non-routine measurements that are designed to not only document the state of the environment but also the drivers that contribute to that state. These field data are used not only to further understand environmental processes through observation-based studies but also to provide baseline data to test model performance and to codify understanding to improve predictive capabilities. To address the considerable barriers and difficulty in utilizing these diverse and complex data for observation–model research, the Merged Observatory Data File (MODF) concept has been developed. A MODF combines measurements from multiple instruments into a single file that complies with well-established data format and metadata practices and has been designed to parallel the development of corresponding Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs). Using the MODF and MMDF protocols will facilitate the evolution of model intercomparison projects into model intercomparison and improvement projects by putting observation and model data “on the same page” in a timely manner. The MODF concept was developed especially for weather forecast model studies in the Arctic. The surprisingly complex process of implementing MODFs in that context refined the concept itself. Thus, this article explains the concept of MODFs by providing details on the issues that were revealed and resolved during that first specific implementation. Detailed instructions are provided on how to make MODFs, and this article can be considered a MODF creation manual.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Evaluation of an Impedance Model for Perforates Including the Effect of Bias Flow

A new bias flow impedance model is developed for perforated plates from basic principles using as little empiricisms as possible. A quality experimental database was used to determine the predictive validity of the model. Results show that the model performs better for higher (15%) rather than lower (5%) percent open area (POA) samples. Based on the least squares ratio of numerical vs. experimental results, model predictions were on average within 20% and 30% for the higher and lower (POA), respectively. It is hypothesized on the work of other investigators that at lower POAs the higher fluid velocities in the perforate's orifices start forming unsteady vortices, which is not accounted for in our model. The numerical model, in general also underpredicts the experiments. It is theorized that the actual acoustic C(sub D) is lower than the measured raylometer C(sub D) used in the model. Using a larger C(sub D) makes the numerical model predict lower impedances. The frequency domain model derived in this paper shows very good agreement with another model derived using a time domain approach.

Betts, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Interannual Variability of Tropical Precipitation: How Well Do Climate Models Agree With Current Satellite Estimates?

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Energy Balance: Reconciling Observations and Models

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over the tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-11 effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean heat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability than do the satellite precipitation observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗