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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

Investigating the durability of a direct methanol fuel cell equipped with commercial Platinum Group Metal-free cathodic electro-catalysts

For the first time a long-term (500 h) durability study in direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) is carried out on a Platinum Group Metal-free (PGM-free) cathodic electro-catalyst commercially available on market. The electro-catalyst is tested for 500 h at a fixed cell voltage (0.3 V), recording the polarization curves during the operation. A drastic decrease in performance is observed after the first 100 h (from 220 to 75 mA cm –2 ); afterwards, the decrease is flatter, passing from 75 to 25 mA cm –2 (at 500 h). The causes of this performance degradation are investigated by postmortem physicochemical analyzes, such as X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with X-ray energy dispersive analysis (EDX). Finally, possible reasons of degradation are indicated to be PGM-free catalyst aggregation, carbon and nitrogen species decrease, Ruthenium dissolution and migration from the anode to the cathode, poisoning both membrane and cathode catalyst.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

TRANSENSOR: Transformer Real-time Assessment INtelligent System with Embedded Network of Sensors and Optical Readout. Final Report

Utilities across the world are wrestling with evolving market dynamics, population growth and climate change. Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) such as solar photovoltaics, distributed generators and energy storage systems are becoming important parts of the U.S. energy mix. These factors are driving an increasing need for low-cost grid asset monitoring. Aside from being costly, traditional utility monitoring systems are not sufficiently robust and do not provide real-time visibility into the condition of grid assets such as transformers. Lack of accurate real-time measurements on performance has resulted in the use of lagging indicators, such as oil sample analysis. To address this need, an innovative embedded optical sensing technology, Transformer Real-time Assessment Intelligent System (TRANSENSOR) was developed, validated and demonstrated in this project. To date, TRANSENSOR has focused on transformers but is extendable to other grid assets. In addition to the technology being embedded into new transformers during manufacturing, a retrofit configuration that can be installed on existing transformers in the field was also developed. It is anticipated that the ability to retrofit existing transformers will help accelerate adoption of the underlying TRANSENSOR technology. Phase 1 of the project focused on laboratory development and qualification of the technology. Following iterations and exploration of relevant optical sensing modalities and multiplexed configurations of interest for the transformer environment, an effective candidate configuration was agreed upon, down-selected and custom-designed for embedding into General Electric (GE) network transformers. Two new GE 500 kilovolt ampere (kVA), 27 kilovolt (kV) distribution network transformers were built with embedded fiber-optic (FO) sensors and successfully qualified per industry standards at GE’s Shreveport, Louisiana facility during Phase 1 of the project. Following the successful completion of Phase 1, the team proceeded to Phase 2, which focused on a field demonstration of the technology. Over Phase 2, the first new GE transformer built with embedded fiber-optic sensors was installed in an above-ground cage and connected to the grid at Con Edison’s Astoria facility. A second transformer equipped with TRANSENSOR was installed in an underground vault. Additionally, an older (1982 year model) GE transformer in an above-ground cage was retrofitted with fiber- optic sensors and reconnected to the grid at ConEd’s facility. Analysis of data acquired from the sensors showed interesting correlations with transformer loading. Additionally, key events such as transformer low-voltage network connection, primary-side energizing, and a pressure loss event from an oil sampling were detected by the TRANSENSOR system. Online data processing/feature extraction algorithms for the second transformer in the underground vault detected key features and event alerts that were transmitted through a wireless 4G connection. The remote deployment concept showed promising results with data collection running for a total of 8 months across the three (3) GE transformers instrumented for the Phase 2 field demonstration. This sets the stage well for further development and commercialization.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Wind and Solar Hybrid Power Plants for Energy Resilience

Wind-solar-storage hybrid power plants represent a significant and growing share of new proposed projects in the United States (U.S.). Their uptake is supported by increasing renewable energy market share, technical abilities for dispatch and control, and decreasing wind, solar, and battery storage costs. Simultaneously, generation and storage resources are increasingly used in distributed power systems. While concerns around the reliability of the aging, transforming U.S. electric grid are growing, diversifying energy resources through hybridization or spatial distribution provides an opportunity to enhance power system resilience compared to single-source generation. Understanding where to build hybrids for resilience value, rather than bulk power supply, has not been fully explored in previous studies. Therefore, in this study, we complete a national complementarity analysis to identify areas in the U.S. that are particularly suited for wind-solar hybrid power plant development. We show the importance of seasonal and diurnal patterns in assessing complementarity, and identify that regions in the Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast are particularly suited for hybrid power plants. We demonstrate the resilience value of hybridization for a reference system based near Memphis, Tennessee, and show optimal sizing of wind, solar, and storage assets given 1.0 and 0.9 critical load factors. Results indicate that pairing wind and solar assets better meet constant load demand and reduce storage requirements compared to solar alone. These results enable future work integrating complementarity metrics in resilience frameworks and indicate a need for more finer resolution of local resource, demand, and hazard data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Theoretical study of the effect of an AlGaAs double heterostructure on metal-semiconductor-metal photodetector performance

The sizing and efficiency of an aircraft is largely determined by the performance of its high-lift system. Subsonic civil transports most often use deployable multi-element airfoils to achieve the maximum-lift requirements for landing, as well as the high lift-to-drag ratios for take-off. However, these systems produce very complex flow fields which are not fully understood by the scientific community. In order to compete in today's market place, aircraft manufacturers will have to design better high-lift systems. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the flows associated with these systems is desired. Flight and wind-tunnel experiments have been conducted on NASA Langley's B737-100 research aircraft to obtain detailed full-scale flow measurements on a multi-element high-lift system at various flight conditions. As part of this effort, computational aerodynamic tools are being used to provide preliminary flow-field information for instrumentation development, and to provide additional insight during the data analysis and interpretation process. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the ability and usefulness of a three-dimensional low-order potentialflow solver, PMARC, by comparing computational results with data obtained from 1/8 scale wind-tunnel tests. Overall, correlation of experimental and computational data reveals that the panel method is able to predict reasonably well the pressures of the aircraft's multi-element wing at several spanwise stations. PMARC's versatility and usefulness is also demonstrated by accurately predicting inviscid threedimensional flow features for several intricate geometrical regions.

Salem, Ali F.↗

Kickstarting a New Era of Lunar Industrialization via Campaign of Lunar COTS Missions

To support the goals of expanding our human presence and current economic sphere beyond LEO, a new plan was constructed for NASA to enter into partnerships with industry to foster and incentivize a new era of lunar industrialization. For NASA to finally be successful in achieving sustainable human exploration missions beyond LEO, lessons learned from our space history have shown that it is essential for current program planning to include affordable and economic development goals as well as address top national priorities to obtain much needed public support. In the last 58 years of NASA's existence, only Apollo's human exploration missions beyond LEO were successful since it was proclaimed to be a top national priority during the 1960's. However, the missions were not sustainable and ended abruptly in 1972 due to lack of funding and insufficient economic gain. Ever since Apollo, there have not been any human missions beyond LEO because none of the proposed program plans were economical or proclaimed a top national priority. The proposed plan outlines a new campaign of low-cost, commercial-enabled lunar COTS (Commercial Orbital Transfer Services) missions which is an update to the Lunar COTS plan previously described. The objectives of this new campaign of missions are to prospect for resources, determine the economic viability of extracting those resources and assess the value proposition of using these resources in future exploration architectures such as Mars. These missions would be accomplished in partnership with commercial industry using the wellproven COTS Program acquisition model. This model proved to be very beneficial to both NASA and its industry partners as NASA saved significantly in development and operational costs, as much as tenfold, while industry partners successfully expanded their market share and demonstrated substantial economic gain. Similar to COTS, the goals for this new initiative are 1) to develop and demonstrate cost-effective, cis-lunar commercial services, such as lunar transportation, lunar mining and lunar ISRU operations; 2) enable development of an affordable and economical exploration architecture for future missions to Mars and beyond; and 3) to incentivize the creation of new lunar markets through use of lunar resources for economic benefit to NASA, commercial industry and the international community. These cost-effective services would not only enable NASA to economically and sustainably achieve its human exploration missions to the Moon, Mars and beyond but it would also kickstart a new era of lunar industrialization. This paper will describe the goals, objectives and approach for implementing this new campaign of missions. It will also describe the potential benefits and progress that can be accomplished with these low-cost, Lunar COTS missions. Lastly, a preliminary economic analysis approach is proposed for understanding the cost and potential return on investment in the use of lunar resources to reach the goal of lunar industrialization and an expanded and sustainable human presence into cis-lunar space and beyond.

Lunar Exploration↗

Dataset of mechanically induced thermal runaway measurement and severity level on Li-ion batteries

The deployment of Li-ion batteries covers a wide range of energy storage applications, from mobile phones, e-bikes, electric vehicles (EV) and stationary energy storage systems. However, safety issue such as thermal runaway is always one of the most important concerns to prevent Li-ion batteries from further market penetration. A standardized single-side indentation test protocol was developed to mechanically induce an internal short-circuit. The cell voltage, compressive load, indenter stroke, and temperature at the indentation point are measured in time series. The test data of each cell, along with cell parameters such as dimensions, mass, chemistry, state of charge (SOC), capacity, are integrated together to calculate a thermal runaway severity score from 0 to100. Complete data collection process including the original measured record, test method, severity score calculation scheme is presented in this article. The thermal runaway severity analysis and the more than 100 tested Li-ion battery records provide a good data source for further comparison and ranking of thermal runaway risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Synthesis of (hemi)cellulosic lubricant base oils via catalytic coupling and deoxygenation pathways

The past decade has witnessed a significant growth in bioproduct development due to the strong interest in creating a more diverse energy supply, environmental sustainability, and a carbon neutral bioeconomy. The initial biorefinery strategy, which focused mainly on the production of low carbon number drop-in bioproducts, has recently shifted its focus on the production of high carbon number and high performance bioproducts with unique properties and value propositions. One such product is lubricant base oil (LBO), which represents over $150 billion global lubricant market and is used for various industrial, automotive, marine, metal-working, consumer, and specialized applications. The application landscape of lubricants has changed significantly over the past decade because of environmental regulations and the growing demand for sustainable lubricants to mitigate regulatory challenges and improve carbon footprint. Currently, only 3% LBOs are produced from bio-based triglycerides/fatty acids. Because of low oxidation stability and high hydrolytic susceptibility, these bio-based LBOs have limited applications. Thus, research and development and commercialization efforts for (hemi)cellulosic LBOs to meet the market demand have received momentum over the past few years. This review describes strategies to produce (hemi)cellulosic LBOs via carbon–carbon coupling and hydrodeoxygenation chemistries. We emphasize the coupling strategies to create LBOs with a branched architecture to surrogate petroleum-based poly-α-olefins. Here, a structure–property relationship for tuning the key specifications of LBOs as a function of molecular architecture is illustrated. Mechanistic understanding and molecular interactions of multi-furan substrates with the active sites of complex multifunctional catalysts are described. Furthermore, techno-economic and life-cycle analysis is summarized along with standing challenges and future opportunities.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Development of an Advanced Integrated Operations Concept for Hybrid Control Rooms

The U.S. Nuclear Industry has an urgent need to reduce the operations and maintenance costs to remain economically competitive in today’s energy market. Measures to improve efficiency in operations will need to leverage technology in a way that safely transforms how plants are operated. This work describes the development of an integrated operations concept that integrates data from existing Instrumentation and Control (I&C) infrastructure, upgraded I&C systems, new sensors, and field technologies such as computer-based procedures to provide operators with centralized, streamlined instructions. The concept was developed to allow for an operator to remotely supervise many plant activities and to dramatically streamline plant operations and maintenance. This report describes the design philosophy, the analysis used to inform design, the implementation in the Human Systems Simulation Laboratory, and illustrates the design concept.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

InSPIRE 2.0 (Final Technical Report)

Co-locating solar projects and agriculture can provide mutual benefits to local farmers (e.g., dual revenue streams, increased yields from pollinator services, irrigation reductions) and to the solar projects (e.g., reduced timeline/costs for installation and O&M, expanded market, increased PV efficiency from a cooler, vegetated microclimate). While prior work sought to demonstrate the feasibility of agricultural co-location (or "agrivoltaic") opportunities, there is a fundamental gap in data available to developers, landowners, and state agencies that prevents widespread deployment of these mutually beneficial practices. This project addressed this gap by (1) establishing a stakeholder research working group composed of multi-sector industry leaders and academics to provide guidance and assist with outreach; (2) undertaking targeted field-based research projects evaluating solar and agriculture co-location tradeoffs; (3) conducting analysis and modeling studies that complement the field-based research; and (4) developing a data portal to consolidate all data on this topic in one location.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

MEMS Technology for Space Applications

Micro-technology enables the manufacturing of all kinds of components for miniature systems or micro-systems, such as sensors, pumps, valves, and channels. The integration of these components into a micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) drastically decreases the total system volume and mass. These properties, combined with the increasing need for monitoring and control of small flows in (bio)chemical experiments, makes MEMS attractive for space applications. The level of integration and applied technology depends on the product demands and the market. The ultimate integration is process integration, which results in a one-chip system. An example of process integration is a dosing system of pump, flow sensor, micromixer, and hybrid feedback electronics to regulate the flow. However, for many applications, a hybrid integration of components is sufficient and offers the advantages of design flexibility and even the exchange of components in the case of a modular set up. Currently, we are working on hybrid integration of all kinds of sensors (physical and chemical) and flow system modules towards a modular system; the micro total analysis system (micro TAS). The substrate contains electrical connections as in a printed circuit board (PCB) as well as fluid channels for a circuit channel board (CCB) which, when integrated, form a mixed circuit board (MCB).

vandenBerg, A.↗

Energy recovery from solid waste. Volume 1: Summary report

A systems analysis of energy recovery from solid waste which demonstrates the feasibility of several processes for converting solid waste to an energy form is presented. The social, legal, environmental, and political factors are considered and recommendations made in regard to legislation and policy. A technical and economic evaluation of available and developing energy-recovery processes is given with emphasis on thermal decomposition and biodegradation. A pyrolysis process is suggested. The use of prepared solid waste as a fuel supplemental to coal is considered to be the most economic process for recovery of energy from solid waste. Markets are discussed with suggestions for improving market conditions and for developing market stability. A decision procedure is given to aid a community in deciding on its options in dealing with solid waste.

Source record↗

A Review of Water and Climate Change Analysis in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which electric utility integrated resource plans (IRPs) evaluate the impact of water constraints on electric generation resource portfolios and the extent to which IRPs consider the impacts of climate change to generation and loads. This white paper reviewed 30 IRPs to determine best practices with respect to analyzing and reporting on potential water-based and climate change risks within the integrated resource planning process. Best practices from electric utility IRPs are identified and additional recommendations and considerations are put forth. In recent years, thermal generating facilities have experienced challenges with water availability: a shortage of cooling water, conditions in which incoming cooling water is too warm for optimal operation, and/or water discharge temperatures exceeding permit limits. S&P Global Market Intelligence recently reported on a study that identified for the year 2030, 98.2 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity at risk due to water stress. Climate change effects on hydrological cycles may adjust the timing, temperature, and volume of water availability for thermal electric cooling and for hydropower generation, which could further exacerbate the frequency and duration of operational constraints. Climate change can also impact the timing and intensity of electric loads that utilities must serve, most notably for heating and cooling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

GL4U: Using Space Biology Omics Data to Provide Bioinformatics Training for Students and Educators

NASA’s GeneLab project provides researchers open access to space-relevant multi-omics data via the Open Science Data Repository (OSDR) that can be mined to understand the effects of spaceflight on biological systems. To maximize the number of scientists who understand and utilize GeneLab data and data processing pipelines, GeneLab created GeneLab for Colleges and Universities (GL4U). GL4U provides space biology-relevant training in bioinformatics to the next generation of scientists through direct (training students) and indirect (training educators) approaches. The GL4U pilot programs were conducted in June 2021 (direct training) and 2022 (indirect training). During the pilots, students and educators at Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) and Minority Serving Institutions (MSIs) participated in a week-long (direct training) or two-week-long (indirect training) bootcamp consisting of space biology-specific lectures and hands-on instruction using Jupyter Notebooks to analyze space biology RNA sequencing data from OSDR. During the educator pilot, participants received materials, training, and the necessary compute resources to enable them to run the bootcamp at their home institutions, thereby extending the reach of this initiative. In July 2023, GeneLab is partnering with JPL to expand GL4U to include amplicon sequencing (Amp-Seq) analysis training. During the GL4U Amp-Seq bootcamp, student and educator participants will receive training on how to analyze and interpret Amp-Seq data using the NASA GeneLab data processing pipeline. All bootcamp material, including instructions for requesting compute resources, will be made publicly available on GitHub for educators to teach the GL4U content in subsequent semesters. GL4U provides undergraduate students from underrepresented groups the opportunity to learn about NASA and Space Biology, and to enhance their career prospects by gaining hands-on experience analyzing omics data, a skillset that is highly applicable and marketable in the life sciences. We present results from pre- and post-training surveys completed by all participants of the Amp-Seq bootcamp.

Amanda M Saravia-Butler↗

Study on Electrostatic Separation of Quinoline Insolubles from Coal Tar Pitch

The feasibility of electrical separation in the removal of quinoline insoluble (QI) particles from coal tar pitch (CTP) was experimentally investigated. QI particle involvement prohibits the effective fabrication of high-quality value-added products, such as carbon fibers, from CTP. A substantial and sustainable CTP market exists around the world; therefore, a strong incentive exists to develop a viable technical approach to effectively and economically remove QI particles from CTP. The electrical separation method shows promise to achieve this technical goal (Cao et al., 2012). Even with the given setup (wire- cylinder adapted), critical issues remain to be addressed for this method to be applicable to the CTP: (1) identifying the wash oil used in the original QI separation, (2) understanding the mechanism of QI separation, (3) characterizing the deposit, and (4) identifying the QI. This study integrated a set of experimental and analysis techniques into the electrical separation tests to address the aforementioned issues. Key findings are as follows: 1. Electric current responses: • The electric current level of the CTP–wash oil solution reported by Cao et al. (2012) can be attained by using a mixture of 25% quinoline and 75% toluene for the CTPs examined in this study under the same electrical load condition. • The electric current tends to decrease during the test period because of the decreasing number of charged particles. • The reversed field corresponded to the configuration of electrostatic precipitation for positive corona discharge. The high electric field can result in dielectric breakdown and lead to an abrupt current surge. 2 Deposit response and solvent candidates: • Deposit of particles in CTP mixture can be effectively implemented in a wire-cylinder configuration as proposed and examined in this study. • Deposit depends on the solvents. Among the solvents tested, two- and three-part solvents that included quinoline and ethanol (i.e., 25% quinoline and 75% toluene; 50% quinoline and 50% toluene; and 33% wash oil, 33% BTX, and 34% ethanol) produced the highest deposit weight. • The deposit process examined in this study is derived from the charged particles. An appreciable relation exists between deposit weight and electric charge. 3. QI removal efficiency (RE): • The RE of the electrostatic separation can reach as high as 76.2% for Carbores, and 61.6% for Koppers. • The RE can be further enhanced if the field level increases from 0.16 kV/mm that was used in the current study to 0.23 kV/mm, according to the relation established between the RE and the electric field. 4. Testing of the modeling system: • The motion of particles is originally driven by the charge-based electric force in the cases tested. The solid particle separation mechanism is similar to that of QI deposition in CTP. • The mechanical movement of solid particles can be strongly affected by the gravitational and viscous forces in the electric field. 5. EDS analysis and chemical compositions: • The main chemical composition of deposit QI matches that of as-prepared CTP QI. The deposit QI is derived from the same group of the CTP QI. • In addition to carbon, the QI contains oxygen, sodium, aluminum, silicon, iron, and sulfur. The work for the near future is also discussed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis: Q1 2023

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) aims to accelerate the advancement and deployment of solar technology in support of an equitable transition to a decarbonized economy no later than 2050, starting with a decarbonized power sector by 2035. Its approach to achieving this goal includes driving innovations in technology, hardware, and soft cost reductions to make solar affordable and accessible for all. As part of this effort, SETO must track solar cost trends so it can focus its research and development (R&D) on the highest-impact activities. The benchmarks in this report are bottom-up cost estimates of all major inputs to PV and energy storage system installations. Bottom-up costs are based on national averages and do not necessarily represent typical costs in all local markets. Like last year's report, this year's report includes two distinct sets of benchmarks: minimum sustainable price (MSP) benchmarks and modeled market price (MMP) benchmarks. MSP benchmarks can be interpreted as the minimum price a company needs to charge to remain financially solvent in the long term based on the minimum sustainable prices of all inputs including minimum sustainable profit margins. MMP benchmarks can be interpreted as the actual cash sales price a company charges in the given benchmark period. These simplified estimates are useful for tracking technological progress, but they do not reflect all experiences. In fact, no individual estimate under any approach can reflect the diversity of the PV and storage manufacturing and installation industries. Our residential MMP benchmark ($2.90 per watt direct current [Wdc]) is 24% higher than the MSP benchmark ($2.34/Wdc) and 9% lower than our MMP benchmark ($3.18/Wdc) from Q1 2022 in 2022 U.S. dollars (USD). For community solar, our MMP benchmark ($1.75/Wdc) is 18% higher than our MSP benchmark ($1.49/Wdc). Our Q1 2022 benchmark report has no community solar system for comparison. For utility-scale systems with one-axis tracking, our MMP benchmark ($1.17/Wdc) is 22% higher than our MSP benchmark ($0.96/Wdc) and 10% higher than its counterpart ($1.07/Wdc) in Q1 2022 in 2022 USD.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Initial Inventory of Non-Technical Challenges to CCUS Deployment

The “Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership” (SECARBUSA) project supports the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy's (FE) mission to help the United States meet its need for secure, affordable, and environmentally sound fossil energy supplies by utilizing the advancements made by the current Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (RCSP) Initiative to continue to identify and address knowledge gaps. The primary project objective is to identify and address regional onshore storage and transport challenges facing commercial deployment of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies. The Research Partners and a selected industry network of experienced CCUS project developers and operators will coordinate their capabilities to accelerate CCUS deployment by achieving four primary research objectives: 1) address key technical challenges; 2) facilitate data collection, sharing and analysis; 3) assess transportation and distribution infrastructure; and 4) promote regional technology transfer and dissemination of knowledge. The SECARB-USA Region includes the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia and portions of Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and West Virginia. Under subtask 5.2: Non-Technical Challenges to CCUS Deployment, the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) will define and identify An Inventory of Non-Technical Challenges to CCUS Deployment. As an initial step, SSEB organized an Industry and Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) Working Group comprised of knowledgeable market participants to assist in the development of an initial list of non-technical challenges to CCUS development.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗