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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

An independent analysis of bias sources and variability in wind plant pre-construction energy yield estimation methods

The wind resource assessment community has long had the goal of reducing the bias between wind plant pre-construction energy yield assessment (EYA) and the observed annual energy production (AEP). This comparison is typically made between the 50% probability of exceedance (P50) value of the EYA and the long-term corrected operational AEP (hereafter OA P50), and is known as the P50 bias. The industry has critically lacked an independent analysis of bias reduction investigated across multiple consultants to identify the greatest sources of uncertainty and variance in the EYA process and the best opportunities for uncertainty reduction. The present study addresses this gap by benchmarking consultant methodologies against each other and against operational data at a scale not seen before in industry collaborations. We consider data from 10 wind plants and evaluate discrepancies between eight consultancies in the steps taken from estimates of gross to net energy. Consultants tend to overestimate the gross energy produced at the turbines and then compensate by further overestimating downstream losses, leading to a mean P50 bias near zero, still with significant variability among the individual wind plants. Within our data sample, we find that consultant estimates of all loss categories, except environmental losses, tend to reduce the project-to-project variability of the P50 bias. The disagreement between consultants, however, remains flat throughout the addition of losses. Finally, we find that differences in consultants’ estimates of project performance can lead to differences up to $10/MWh in the levelized cost of energy for a wind plant.

Todd, Austin C.↗

Enhancing Interpretability in Generative Modeling: Statistically Disentangled Latent Spaces Guided by Generative Factors in Scientific Datasets

This study addresses the challenge of statistically extracting generative factors from complex, high-dimensional datasets in unsupervised or semi-supervised settings. We investigate encoder-decoder-based generative models for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, focusing on disentangling low-dimensional latent variables corresponding to independent physical factors. Introducing Aux-VAE, a novel architecture within the classical Variational Autoencoder framework, we achieve disentanglement with minimal modifications to the standard VAE loss function by leveraging prior statistical knowledge through auxiliary variables. These variables guide the shaping of the latent space by aligning latent factors with learned auxiliary variables. We validate the efficacy of Aux-VAE through comparative assessments on multiple datasets, including astronomical simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Chemical looping combustion oxygen carrier production cost study

The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of commercial production of oxygen carriers (OCs) for large-scale application in a mature, chemical looping combustion (CLC) power generation industry. Estimates of cost were made for two production facility scenarios: 1) build and operate an on-site, OC production facility located at a 550 MW CLC power plant site; and 2) build and operate a central production facility to produce and distribute OCs to the U.S. CLC power generation industry. Two OC production techniques were addressed: mechanical mixing and co-precipitation. Representative OCs that have production raw materials with sufficient commercial availability to support a CLC industry are ilmenite, a natural OC, and four engineered OC types, Fe 2 O 3 -based, CuO-based, NiO-based, and CuFeAlO 4 -based, with candidate OC support materials Al 2 O 3 and TiO 2 . The costs of the OC production raw materials represent the major portion of the OC product cost; the OC production cost, in dollars per kg, has been found to be nearly a linear function of the OC raw materials cost, in dollars per kg. In conclusion, the estimated OC product costs can be used to estimate the maximum OC loss rate yielding a designated CLC power plant cost-of-electricity (COE) target as a development guide, and it has been found that the maximum OC makeup rate, in kg per hour, achieving a designated COE reduction goal relative to a conventional pulverized coal (PC) power plant, will be nearly inversely proportional to the OC production raw materials cost, in dollars per kg.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

tLaSDI: Thermodynamics-informed latent space dynamics identification

Here we propose a latent space dynamics identification method, namely tLaSDI, that embeds the first and second principles of thermodynamics. The latent variables are learned through an autoencoder as a nonlinear dimension reduction model. The latent dynamics are constructed by a neural network-based model that precisely preserves certain structures for the thermodynamic laws through the GENERIC formalism. An abstract error estimate is established, which provides a new loss formulation involving the Jacobian computation of autoencoder. The autoencoder and the latent dynamics are simultaneously trained to minimize the new loss. Computational examples demonstrate the effectiveness of tLaSDI, which exhibits robust generalization ability, even in extrapolation. In addition, an intriguing correlation is empirically observed between a quantity from tLaSDI in the latent space and the behaviors of the full-state solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Jensen–Shannon divergence based novel loss functions for Bayesian neural networks

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are state-of-the-art machine learning methods that can naturally regularize and systematically quantify uncertainties using their stochastic parameters. Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence-based variational inference used in BNNs suffer from unstable optimization and challenges in approximating light-tailed posteriors due to the unbounded nature of the KL divergence. To resolve these issues, we formulate a novel loss function for BNNs based on a new modification to the generalized Jensen–Shannon (JS) divergence, which is bounded. In addition, we propose a Geometric JS divergence-based loss, which is computationally efficient since it can be evaluated analytically. We found that the JS divergence-based variational inference is intractable, and hence employed a constrained optimization framework to formulate these losses. Our theoretical analysis and empirical experiments on multiple regression and classification data sets suggest that the proposed losses perform better than the KL divergence-based loss, especially when the data sets are noisy or biased. Specifically, there are approximately 5% and 8% improvements in accuracy for a noise-added CIFAR-10 dataset and a regression dataset, respectively. There is about 13% reduction in false negative predictions of a biased histopathology dataset. Additionally, we quantify and compare the uncertainty metrics for the regression and classification tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effects of Absorber Near-Interface Compensation on Cd(Se,Te) Solar Cell Performance

Arsenic (As) has been shown to be an effective p-type dopant for CdTe, although high performance in As-doped devices remains difficult to achieve. Arsenic is prone to self-compensation in CdTe, as evidenced by the accumulation of dopant atoms in CdTe/Cd(Se,Te) near the interface with MgxZn1-xO (MZO). In this study, we use SCAPS 1D modeling software to investigate the effect of near-interface compensation, helping elucidate loss pathways in present-day As-doped devices and informing future growth directions. We consider three possible results of As accumulation: shallow donors, deep recombination centers, and a thin layer of excess acceptor accumulation. The reduction in near-interface carrier concentration caused by shallow donors is shown to improve open-circuit voltages (VOC), whereas deep levels are detrimental to all performance parameters. The thin charge layer affects capacitance-voltage (CV) measurements by reducing the depletion width while maintaining the same carrier concentration, replicating CV behavior that has been observed in actual devices. These results illustrate the importance of monitoring dopant accumulation within 100 nm of the interface, and suggest that reducing or eliminating the As concentration in this region would be beneficial. An undoped Cd(Se,Te) layer at the interface is suggested as a possible device structure to boost performance.

absorber↗

DC Link Capacitor Reduction with Feedforward Control in Series-Series Compensated Wireless Power Transfer Systems

This paper presents the use of feedforward control to reduce the input side DC link capacitance of series-series compensated wireless power transfer (WPT) systems. Compared to conventional control schemes for WPT systems, the proposed feedforward-based approach achieves significant reduction in the DC link capacitor without any complicated voltage or current sensing requirements from the secondary side. This results in more compact hardware architecture. The proposed method shows minimal increase in the turn-on switching loss of the inverter. The switching loss is analyzed, and detailed results are presented relating the switching loss to the DC link capacitance and voltage ripple for proper tradeoff between losses and capacitor size. Simulation and experimental results presented validate the proposed scheme.

Mukherjee, Subho↗

Thermodynamics-informed latent space dynamics identification

This software showcases a latent space dynamics identification method, namely tLaSDI, that embeds the first and second principles of thermodynamics. The latent variables are learned through an autoencoder as a nonlinear dimension reduction model. The latent dynamics are constructed by a neural network-based model that precisely preserves certain structures for the thermodynamic laws through the GENERIC formalism. An abstract error estimate is established, which provides a new loss formulation involving the Jacobian computation of autoencoder. The autoencoder and the latent dynamics are simultaneously trained to minimize the new loss. Computational examples demonstrate the effectiveness of tLaSDI, which exhibits robust generalization ability, even in extrapolation. In addition, an intriguing correlation is empirically observed between a quantity from tLaSDI in the latent space and the behaviors of the full-state solution.

Cheung, Siu Wun↗

Multiscale Wildfire Simulation Framework and Remote Sensing

Wildfire as one type of climate extreme events causes huge socioeconomic losses and damages. Large wildfires (i.e., generated pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb)) can inject tremendous amounts of smoke into the stratosphere, where black carbon and organic carbon aerosols can persist months to years and influence climate by imposing a significant reduction in the radiative forcing like that associated with large volcanic eruptions or proposed via climate interventions such as geoengineering. Both observations and numerical modeling results clearly indicate an increasing trend in wildfire frequency and intensity in many regions during the recent decades with climate change. However, current understanding of wildfire remains largely uncertain owing to limitations of modeling capabilities in representing the multiscale wildfire physics and dynamics and a scarcity of observations constraining important wildfire and environmental variables. This study primarily aims to improve the wildfire simulation capabilities in the state-of-the-art climate model by filling in two major gaps: (1) model resolution is typically too coarse to resolve fine scale processes associated with fires, and (2) chemistry and aerosol processes in fire smoke are poorly represented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The effects of high-temperature brazing and thermal cycling on the mechanical properties of Hastelloy X

Data are presented on the effects of brazing alloy, brazing operation, thermal cycling, and combinations of these on the yield strength, elongation, tensile strength, and fatigue life of thin gage Hastelloy X. These data show that brazing at 1461 K (2170 F) with a Ni-Pd-Au alloy and subsequent exposure to 200 service thermal cycles between 533 and 1144 K (500 and 1600 F) result in reduction of as much as 39 percent in yield strength, 33 percent in elongation, 14 percent in tensile strength, and 26 percent in fatigue limit of Hastelloy X, as compared to as-received materials. These property losses are primarily caused by the brazing operation rather than the subsequent service thermal cycles.

Dicus, D. L.↗

Flow visualization study of a two-dimensional representation of the Space Shuttle launch pad configuration

The loss of the Space Shuttle Challenger was caused by the failure of the aft joint O-ring seals in its right solid rocket booster. It has been suggested by several sources that wind conditions through a reduction in temperature of the right solid rocket booster caused by the wind blowing across the cold external tank, played a role in the O-ring failure. To check the plausibility of the wind theory, an experiment was carried out in a water towing tank to visualize the flow past a two-dimensional model representing a cross section of the Space Shuttle launch configuration. The periodic formation of vortices was found to characterize the wake generated by the model. It is suggested that this organized motion in the flow is the dominant mechanism that accomplishes heat transfer from the external tank to the right solid rocket booster. Flow visualization results consisting of photographs that show instantaneous streamline patterns of the flow are presented.

Mclachland, B. G.↗

Energy management analysis of lunar oxygen production

Energy load models in the process of hydrogen reduction of ilmenite for lunar oxygen production are being developed. The load models will be used as a first step to ultimately determine the optimal energy system needed to supply the power requirements for the process. The goal is to determine the energy requirements in the process of hydrogen reduction of ilmenite to produce oxygen. The general approach is shown, and the objectives are to determine the energy loads of the processes in the system. Subsequent energy management studies will be made to minimize the system losses (irreversibilities) and to design optimal energy system power requirements. A number of processes are being proposed as possible candidates for lunar application and some detailed experimental efforts are being conducted within this project at the University of Arizona. Priorities are directed toward developing the energy models for each of the proposed processes being considered. The immediate goals are to identify the variables that would impact energy requirements and energy sources of supply.

Fazzolari, R.↗

Experiments and Analyses of Distributed Exhaust Nozzles

Experimental and analytical aeroacoustic properties of several distributed exhaust nozzle (DEN) designs are presented. Significant differences between the designs are observed and correlated back to Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flowfield predictions. Up to 20 dB of noise reduction on a spectral basis and 10 dB on an overall sound pressure level basis are demonstrated from the DEN designs compared to a round reference nozzle. The most successful DEN designs acoustically show a predicted thrust loss of approximately 10% compared to the reference nozzle. Characteristics of the individual mini-jet nozzles that comprise the DEN such as jet-jet shielding and coalescence are shown to play a major role in the noise signature.

Kinzie, Kevin W.↗

Flight Test Results for Uniquely Tailored Propulsion-Airframe Aeroacoustic Chevrons: Shockcell Noise

Azimuthally varying chevrons (AVC) which have been uniquely tailored to account for the asymmetric propulsion-airframe aeroacoustic interactions have recently shown significant reductions in jet-related community noise at low-speed take-off conditions in scale model tests of coaxial nozzles with high bypass ratio. There were indications that such AVCs may also provide shockcell noise reductions at high cruise speeds. This paper describes the flight test results when one such AVC concept, namely, the T-fan chevrons with enhanced mixing near the pylon, was tested at full-scale on a modern large twin-jet aircraft (777-300ER) with focus on shockcell noise at mid-cruise conditions. Shockcell noise is part of the interior cabin noise at cruise conditions and its reduction is useful from the viewpoint of passenger comfort. Noise reduction at the source, in the exhaust jet, especially, at low frequencies, is beneficial from the perspective of reduced fuselage sidewall acoustic lining. Results are shown in terms of unsteady pressure spectra both on the exterior surface of the fuselage at several axial stations and also microphone arrays placed inside the fuselage aft of the engine. The benefits of T-fan chevrons, with and without conventional chevrons on the core nozzle, are shown for several engine operating conditions at cruise involving supersonic fan stream and subsonic or supersonic core stream. The T-fan AVC alone provides up to 5 dB low-frequency noise reduction on the fuselage exterior skin and up to 2 dB reduction inside the cabin. Addition of core chevrons appears to increase the higher frequency noise. This flight test result with the previous model test observation that the T-fan AVCs have hardly any cruise thrust coefficient loss (< 0.05%) make them viable candidates for reducing interior cabin noise in high bypass ratio engines.

Mengle, Vinod G.↗

Inter-Annual and Decadal Changes in Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone

Ozone data beginning October 2004 from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are used to evaluate the accuracy of the Cloud slicing technique in effort to develop long data records of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and studying their long-term changes. Using this technique, we have produced a 32-year (1979-2010) long record of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from the combined Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (Toms) and OMI. The analyses of these time series suggest that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant source of inter-annual changes of 30-40 Dobson Units (DU). Tropospheric ozone also indicates a QBO signal in the peak to peak changes varying from 2 to 7 DU. Decadal changes in global stratospheric ozone indicate a turnaround in ozone loss around mid 1990's with most of these changes occurring in the Northern Hemisphere from the subtropics to high latitudes. The trend results are generally consistent with the prediction of chemistry climate models which include the reduction of ozone destroying substances beginning in the late 1980's mandated by the Montreal Protocol.

Ziemke, Jr. R.↗

The Effect of Fiber-Angle Fidelity on the Linear Response of Tow-steered Composite Plates

Composite laminate tailoring is traditionally performed by uniformly changing the in-plane ply orientation to obtain the desired mechanical performance. The emergence of tow-steered plies, where the fibers follow a prescribed curvilinear path, have increased the tailorability of composite laminates. However, characterizing the behavior of tow-steered laminates using finite element analysis is challenging because additional, and often numerous, orientation definitions may be required. The additional orientation definitions detrimentally increase the computational cost and hinder the use of advanced analysis techniques, such as Monte Carlo or uncertainty quantification, in the design process. To reduce computational cost without adversely affecting mechanics-based performance, the results of a parametric study that was used to investigate the effects of fiber-angle fidelity, element size, and tow-steered radius-of-curvature on various loading scenarios for tow-steered composite plates are presented. The three loading scenarios that were analyzed using finite element analysis included an axial tension load, an applied constant through-thickness-direction pressure load, and an axial compression load. Results for mechanics-based metrics of interest are presented and discussed for each loading scenario. Little sensitivity (less than one percent difference) to the effect of fiber-angle fidelity is observed in the mechanics-based metrics until the coarse-end of the considered range. Sensitivity to element size generally dominates the observed results for the mechanics-based metrics. Notable reductions in the preprocessing time are observed for increasingly coarse element size and fiber-rounding parameters. The preprocessing times decreased up to three orders of magnitude from a few thousand seconds to a few seconds without loss of accuracy in the mechanics-based metrics. Such increased computational performance is of particular interest to the structural design and analysis communities that may be conducting large counts of finite-element analyses, such as in other parametric studies, Monte-Carlo analyses, uncertainty quantification, or tow-steered optimization.

tow-steered composites↗

Thermal analysis of combustion synthesis of FeAlxOy catalysts for dehydrogenation of fossil fuels

The growing demand for hydrogen as a clean energy carrier highlights the need for its alternative production method with reduced CO₂ emissions. Microwave-assisted thermocatalytic dehydrogenation of fossil fuels offers a promising solution for clean hydrogen production, with FeAlxOy nanocomposites acting as efficient catalysts due to their thermal stability, catalytic activity, and microwave-absorption properties. FeAlxOy nanocomposites, fabricated by solution combustion synthesis (SCS), have shown good microwave-absorption and catalytic properties. However, the effects of synthesis parameters such as fuel type and Fe:Al molar ratio on the SCS process and properties of the final material are not well understood. The SCS process involves vaporization of water, thermal decomposition of the mixture components, and oxidation – reduction reactions. In the present work, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) were utilized to study the SCS mechanism, with a focus on understanding decomposition processes. TGA provided insights into the thermal stability and mass loss profiles of the mixtures, while DSC quantified the heat release and identified reaction onset temperatures. Results demonstrated that the choice of fuel significantly influenced the thermal behavior and properties of FeAlxOy nanocomposites. Glycine-based mixtures exhibited superior thermal stability and complete decomposition in a single step with high heat release compared to citric acid-based mixtures, which required higher synthesis temperatures and experienced slower, two-step decomposition processes. These findings emphasize the effectiveness of glycine-fueled SCS in producing thermally stable and catalytically active FeAlxOy nanocomposites.

Martinez Espinoza, Laura Alejandra↗

Reduction of spermatogonia and testosterone in rat testes flown on Space Lab-3

The effects of space flight on rat testes were investigated. The weight, spermatogonial cell count, and testosterone levels in six rats flown on Space Lab-3 were measured. It is observed that compared to ground control rats the average weight loss was 7.1 percent and the spermatogonial cell count decreased by 7.5 percent. The data reveal that the testosterone level for large control rats was 9.13 ng/ml and 0.31 ng/ml for flight rats; and 2.54 ng/ml and 0.233 ng/ml for smaller control and flight rats, respectively. It is noted that spermatogenesis and testosterone production are reduced during spaceflight.

Philpott, Delbert E.↗