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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of oil and gas methane emissions in the Delaware and Marcellus basins using a network of continuous tower-based measurements

Abstract. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), emissions from oil and gas infrastructure contribute 30 % of all anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions in the US. Studies in the last decade have shown emissions from this sector to be substantially larger than bottom-up assessments, including the EPA inventory, highlighting both the increased importance of methane emissions from the oil and gas sector in terms of their overall climatological impact and the need for independent monitoring of these emissions. In this study we present continuous monitoring of regional methane emissions from two oil and gas basins using tower-based observing networks. Continuous methane measurements were taken at four tower sites in the northeastern Marcellus basin from May 2015 through December 2016 and five tower sites in the Delaware basin in the western Permian from March 2020 through April 2022. These measurements, an atmospheric transport model, and prior emission fields are combined using an atmospheric inversion to estimate monthly methane emissions in the two regions. This study finds the mean overall emission rate from the Delaware basin during the measurement period to be 146–210 Mg CH4 h−1 (energy-normalized loss rate of 1.1 %–1.5 %, gas-normalized rate of 2.5 %–3.5 %). Strong temporal variability in the emissions was present, with the lowest emission rates occurring during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, a synthetic model–data experiment performed using the Delaware tower network shows that the presence of intermittent sources is not a significant source of uncertainty in monthly quantification of the mean emission rate. In the Marcellus, this study finds the overall mean emission rate to be 19–28 Mg CH4 h−1 (gas-normalized loss rate of 0.30 %–0.45 %), with relative consistency in the emission rate over time. These totals align with aircraft top-down estimates from the same time periods. In both basins, the tower network was able to constrain monthly flux estimates within ±20 % uncertainty in the Delaware and ±24 % uncertainty in the Marcellus. The results from this study demonstrate the ability to monitor emissions continuously and detect changes in the emissions field, even in a basin with relatively low emissions and complex background conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of reduced-complexity aerosol thermodynamics on organic aerosol mass concentration and composition over North America

Atmospheric organic aerosol (OA) mass concentrations can be affected by water uptake through its impact on the gas–particle partitioning of semi-volatile compounds. Current chemical transport models (CTMs) neglect this process. We have implemented the Binary Activity Thermodynamics model coupled to a volatility basis set partitioning scheme in the GEOS-Chem CTM, providing an efficient reduced-complexity OA model that predicts relative-humidity-dependent mixing and partitioning thermodynamics, while limiting the impact on computational efficiency. We provide a quantitative assessment of this water-sensitive OA treatment, focusing on a subdomain over North America. The updated OA scheme predicts a spatiotemporal mean enhancement in surface-level OA mass concentration of 145 % for January 2019 and 76 % for July 2019 compared to GEOS-Chem's most advanced OA scheme. The temporal mean surface-level OA organic mass concentration can increase by up to ∼590 % for January 2019 and ∼280 % for July 2019, with the greatest enhancements occurring over the ocean. The updated OA scheme also quantifies the OA-associated water content. The simulations show how different OA precursors and related OA surrogates contribute and respond to water uptake, including that due to changes in temperature and relative humidity over the diurnal cycle in selected winter and summer months. These results are independent of future CTM improvements involving updates to chemical reaction schemes and emission inventories. Our water-sensitive OA scheme allows for a better representation of the seasonal and regional variations in OA mass concentration in CTMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weak influence of anthropogenic emissions on aerosol, cloud, and rain in the wet season of the Amazon rainforest

Anthropogenic emissions have been shown to affect new particle formation, aerosol concentrations, and clouds. Such effects vary with region, environmental conditions, and cloud types. In the wet season of Amazonia, anthropogenic emissions emitted from Manaus, Brazil, can significantly increase the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations compared to the background of mainly natural aerosols. However, the regional response of cloud and rain to anthropogenic emissions in Amazonia remains very uncertain. Here, we aim to quantify how aerosol concentration, cloud, and rain respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions through parameterized new particle formation and primary aerosol emission in the Manaus region and to understand the underlying mechanisms. We ran the atmosphere-only configuration of the HadGEM3 climate model with a nested regional domain that covers most of the rainforest region (720 km by 1200 km with 3 km resolution) under scaled regional emissions. The 7 d simulations show that, in the areas that are affected by anthropogenic emissions, when aerosol and precursor gas emissions are doubled from the baseline emission inventories, aerosol number concentrations increase by 13 %. The nucleation rate that involves sulfuric acid and biogenic compounds generally increases with pollution levels. However, nucleation is suppressed very close to the pollution source, resulting in lower nucleation and soluble Aitken mode aerosol number concentrations. We also found that doubling the anthropogenic emission can increase the cloud droplet number concentrations ( N d ) by 9 %, but cloud water and rain mass mixing ratios do not change significantly. Even very strong reductions in aerosol number concentrations by a factor of 4, which is an unrealistic condition, cause only a 4 % increase in rain over the domain. If we assume our simulation has a fine enough grid resolution and an accurate representation of the relevant atmospheric processes, the simulated weak and non-linear response of cloud and rain properties to linearly scaled anthropogenic emissions suggests that the interactions among aerosol, cloud, and precipitation in the Amazonian convective environment are buffered by microphysical processes. It also implies that the convective environment is resilient to the changes in Nd that occur in response to localized anthropogenic aerosol perturbations.

Wang, Xuemei [University of Leeds (United Kingdom)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Airborne flux measurements of ammonia over the southern Great Plains using chemical ionization mass spectrometry

Abstract. Ammonia (NH3) is an abundant trace gas in the atmosphere and an important player in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol formation and the atmosphere–surface exchange of nitrogen. The accurate determination of NH3 emission rates remains a challenge, partly due to the propensity of NH3 to interact with instrument surfaces, leading to high detection limits and slow response times. In this paper, we present a new method for quantifying ambient NH3, using chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) with deuterated benzene cations as reagents. The setup aimed at limiting sample–surface interactions and achieved a 1σ precision of 10–20 pptv and an immediate 1/e response rate of < 0.4 s, which compares favorably to the existing state of the art. The sensitivity exhibited an inverse humidity dependence, in particular in relatively dry conditions. Background of up to 10 % of the total signal required consideration as well, as it responded on the order of a few minutes. To showcase the method's capabilities, we quantified NH3 mixing ratios from measurements obtained during deployment on a Gulfstream I aircraft during the HI-SCALE (Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems) field campaign in rural Oklahoma during May 2016. Typical mixing ratios were 1–10 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) for the boundary layer and 0.1–1 ppbv in the lower free troposphere. Sharp plumes of up to tens of ppbv of NH3 were encountered as well. We identified two of their sources as a large fertilizer plant and a cattle farm, and our mixing ratio measurements yielded upper bounds of 350 ± 50 and 0.6 kg NH3 h−1 for their respective momentary source rates. The fast response of the CIMS also allowed us to derive vertical NH3 fluxes within the turbulent boundary layer via eddy covariance, for which we chiefly used the continuous wavelet transform technique. As expected for a region dominated by agriculture, we observed predominantly upward fluxes, implying net NH3 emissions from the surface. The corresponding analysis focused on the most suitable flight, which contained two straight-and-level legs at ∼ 300 m above ground. We derived NH3 fluxes between 1 and 11 mol km−2 h−1 for these legs, at an effective spatial resolution of 1–2 km. The analysis demonstrated how flux measurements benefit from suitably arranged flight tracks with sufficiently long straight-and-level legs, and it explores the detrimental effect of measurement discontinuities. Following flux footprint estimations, comparison to the NH3 area emissions inventory provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency indicated overall agreement but also the absence of some sources, for instance the identified cattle farm. Our study concludes that high-precision CIMS measurements are a powerful tool for in situ measurements of ambient NH3 mixing ratios, and even allow for the airborne mapping of the air–surface exchange of NH3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Airborne flux measurements of ammonia over the Southern Great Plains using chemical ionization mass spectrometry

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is an abundant trace gas in the atmosphere and an important player in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol formation and the atmosphere-surface exchange of nitrogen. It is recognized as a major source of aerosol pollution, and it may limit the formation of cloud nuclei in remote or cold parts of the atmosphere. For soil and plants, NH 3 -mediated nitrogen can act as a harmful pollutant or as a desirable nutrient, mostly in natural and agricultural settings, respectively. Agriculture is also the main source of atmospheric NH 3 via volatilization from fertilizers and manure processing in livestock farming. The accurate determination of NH 3 emission rates remains a challenge, partly due to the propensity of NH 3 to interact with instrument surfaces leading to high detection limits and slow response times. In this paper, we present a new method for quantifying ambient NH 3 , using chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) with deuterated benzene cations as reagents. The setup aimed at limiting sample-surface interactions and achieved a 1-σ precision of 10–20 pptv and an immediate 1/e response rate < 0.4 s, which compares favorably to the existing state of the art. The sensitivity exhibited an inverse humidity dependence, in particular in relatively dry conditions. Background of up to 10 % of the total signal required consideration as well, as it responded on the order of a few minutes. To showcase the method’s capabilities, we quantified NH3 mixing ratios from measurements obtained during deployment on a Gulfstream I aircraft during the HI-SCALE (Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems) field campaign in rural Oklahoma during May 2016. Typical mixing ratios were 1–10 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) for the boundary layer and 0.1–1 ppbv in the lower free troposphere. Sharp plumes of up to 10s of ppbv of NH3 were encountered as well. We identified two of their sources as a large fertilizer plant and a cattle farm, and our mixing ratio measurements yielded upper bounds of 350 ± 50 and 0.6 kg NH 3 h –1 for their respective momentary source rates. The fast response of the CIMS also allowed us to derive vertical NH 3 fluxes within the turbulent boundary layer via eddy covariance, for which we chiefly used the continuous wavelet transform technique. As expected for a region dominated by agriculture, we observed predominantly upward fluxes, implying net NH 3 emissions from surface. The corresponding analysis focused on the most suitable flight, which contained two straight-and-level legs at ~300 m above ground. We derived NH 3 fluxes between –4 and 18 mol km –2 h –1 for these legs, at an effective spatial resolution of 1–2 km. The analysis demonstrated how flux measurements benefit from suitably arranged flight tracks with sufficiently long straight-and-level legs, and explores the detrimental effect of measurement discontinuities. Following flux footprint estimations, comparison to the NH 3 area emissions inventory provided by the US Environmental Protection Agency indicated overall agreement, but also the absence of some sources, for instance the identified cattle farm. Our study concludes that high-precision CIMS measurements are a powerful tool for in-situ measurements of ambient NH 3 mixing ratios, and even allow for the airborne mapping of the air-surface exchange of NH 3 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representativeness assessment of the pan-Arctic eddy covariance site network and optimized future enhancements

Abstract. Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network's representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60∘ N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/, last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity between ecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflecting changes in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics based on this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location is represented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a second for which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statistically rigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domain is represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers in similar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methane measurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the values drop to about 1/5 and 1/10 of the domain, respectively. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented. Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations or upgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active during wintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH 4 ) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH 4 are continuing to increase, making CH 4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Assessing the relative importance of CH 4 in comparison to CO 2 is complicated by its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and atmospheric growth rate variations over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH 4 sources and from the destruction of CH 4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cloud condensation nuclei concentrations derived from the CAMS reanalysis

Determining number concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is one of the first steps in the chain in analysis of cloud droplet formation, the direct microphysical link between aerosols and cloud droplets, and a process key for aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI). However, due to sparse coverage of in situ measurements and difficulties associated with retrievals from satellites, a global exploration of their magnitude, source as well as temporal and spatial distribution cannot be easily obtained. Thus, a better representation of CCN numbers is one of the goals for quantifying ACI processes and achieving uncertainty-reduced estimates of their associated radiative forcing. Here, we introduce a new CCN dataset which is derived based on aerosol mass mixing ratios from the latest Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis (CAMSRA) in a diagnostic model that uses CAMSRA aerosol properties and a simplified kappa-Köhler framework suitable for global models. The emitted aerosols in CAMSRA are not only based on input from emission inventories using aerosol observations, they also have a strong tie to satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) as this is assimilated as a constraining factor in the reanalysis. Furthermore, the reanalysis interpolates for cases of poor or missing retrievals and thus allows for a full spatiotemporal quantification of CCN numbers. The derived CCN dataset captures the general trend and spatial and temporal distribution of total CCN number concentrations and CCN from different aerosol species. A brief evaluation with ground-based in situ measurements demonstrates the improvement of the modelled CCN over the sole use of AOD as a proxy for CCN as the overall correlation coefficient improved from 0.37 to 0.71. However, we find the modelled CCN from CAMSRA to be generally high biased and find a particular erroneous overestimation at one heavily polluted site which emphasises the need for further validation. The CCN dataset (https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/QUAERERE_CCNCAMS_v1, Block, 2023), which is now freely available to users, features 3-D CCN number concentrations of global coverage for various supersaturations and aerosol species covering the years 2003–2021 with daily frequency. This dataset is one of its kind as it offers lots of opportunities to be used for evaluation in models and in ACI studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparative study of two-way and offline coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over the contiguous US: performance evaluation and impacts of chemistry–meteorology feedbacks on air quality

The two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting and Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model has been developed to more realistically represent the atmosphere by accounting for complex chemistry–meteorology feedbacks. In this study, we present a comparative analysis of two-way (with consideration of both aerosol direct and indirect effects) and offline coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over the contiguous US. Long-term (5 years from 2008 to 2012) simulations using WRF-CMAQ with both offline and two-way coupling modes are carried out with anthropogenic emissions based on multiple years of the U.S. National Emission Inventory and chemical initial and boundary conditions derived from an advanced Earth system model (i.e., a modified version of the Community Earth System Model/Community Atmospheric Model). The comprehensive model evaluations show that both two-way WRF-CMAQ and WRF-only simulations perform well for major meteorological variables such as temperature at 2 m, relative humidity at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m, precipitation (except for against the National Climatic Data Center data), and shortwave and longwave radiation. Both two-way and offline CMAQ also show good performance for ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ). Due to the consideration of aerosol direct and indirect effects, two-way WRF-CMAQ shows improved performance over offline coupled WRF and CMAQ in terms of spatiotemporal distributions and statistics, especially for radiation, cloud forcing, O 3 , sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon, tropospheric O 3 residual, and column nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). For example, the mean biases have been reduced by more than 10 W m –2 for shortwave radiation and cloud radiative forcing and by more than 2 ppb for max 8 h O 3 . However, relatively large biases still exist for cloud predictions, some PM 2.5 species, and PM 10 that warrant follow-up studies to better understand those issues. The impacts of chemistry–meteorological feedbacks are found to play important roles in affecting regional air quality in the US by reducing domain-average concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), O 3 , nitrogen oxide (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and PM 2.5 by 3.1 % (up to 27.8 %), 4.2 % (up to 16.2 %), 6.6 % (up to 50.9 %), 5.8 % (up to 46.6 %), and 8.6 % (up to 49.1 %), respectively, mainly due to reduced radiation, temperature, and wind speed. The overall performance of the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model achieved in this work is generally good or satisfactory and the improved performance for two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ should be considered along with other factors in developing future model applications to inform policy making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A machine learning approach targeting parameter estimation for plant functional type coexistence modeling using ELM-FATES (v2.0)

Tropical forest dynamics play a crucial role in the global carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, realistically simulating the dynamics of competition and coexistence between different plant functional types (PFTs) in tropical forests remains a significant challenge. This study aims to improve the modeling of PFT coexistence in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a vegetation demography model implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM), ELM-FATES. Specifically, we explore (1) whether plant trait relationships established from field measurements can constrain ELM-FATES simulations and (2) whether machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models can emulate the complex ELM-FATES model and optimize parameter selections to improve PFT coexistence modeling. We conducted three ensembles of ELM-FATES experiments at a tropical forest site near Manaus, Brazil. By comparing the ensemble experiments without (Exp-CTR) and with (Exp-OBS) consideration of observed trait relationships, we found that accounting for these relationships slightly improves the simulations of water, energy, and carbon variables when compared to observations but degrades the simulation of PFT coexistence. Using ML-based surrogate models trained on Exp-CTR, we optimized the trait parameters in ELM-FATES and conducted another ensemble of experiments (Exp-ML) with these optimized parameters. The proportion of PFT coexistence experiments significantly increased from 21 % in Exp-CTR to 73 % in Exp-ML. After filtering the experiments that allow for PFT coexistence to agree with observations (within 15 % tolerance), 33 % of the Exp-ML experiments were retained, which is a significant improvement compared to the 1.4 % in Exp-CTR. Exp-ML also accurately reproduces the annual means and seasonal variations in water, energy, and carbon fluxes and the field inventory of aboveground biomass. This study represents a reproducible method that utilizes machine learning to identify parameter values that improve model fidelity against observations and PFT coexistence in vegetation demography models for diverse ecosystems. Our study also suggests the need for new mechanisms to enhance the robust simulation of coexisting plants in ELM-FATES and has significant implications for modeling the response and feedbacks of ecosystem dynamics to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the climate impact of an improved volcanic sulfate aerosol representation in E3SM

Accurately simulating historical surface temperature variations is essential for evaluating climate models, yet many struggle to reproduce the mid-20th-century temperature trends associated with significant volcanic eruptions. This study examines the impact of volcanic sulfate aerosol representation on these biases using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The standard CMIP6 protocol prescribes volcanic forcing through radiative perturbations, omitting volcanic aerosol–cloud interactions (VACIs). Here, we implement an emission-based approach with an updated volcanic eruption inventory that directly incorporates volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions, enabling a more process-based representation of volcanic forcing. This approach leads to improved surface temperature variability and a modest reduction in cold biases between 1940 and 1980 compared to the CMIP6 setup. Additionally, we assess cloud property responses to a more realistic volcanic sulfate aerosol representation, which weakens cloud-induced cooling during periods of lower volcanic activity. However, despite these refinements, a significant temperature cold bias remains, indicating that further improvements in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol microphysics, cloud processes, and model parameterizations are needed to fully resolve this issue in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗
DOE OSTI2025

First experimental determination of the ⁴⁰Ar(𝑛, 2𝑛)³⁹Ar reaction cross section and ³⁹Ar production in Earth’s atmosphere

The cosmogenic ³⁹Ar(t1∕2 = 268 years) isotope of argon is used for geophysical dating and tracing of underground and ocean water, as well as ice owing to its appropriate half-life and chemical inertness as a noble gas; ³⁹Ar serves also in nuclear weapon test monitoring. We measured for the first time the total cross section of the main ³⁹Ar cosmogenic production reaction in the atmosphere, namely ⁴⁰Ar(𝑛, 2𝑛)39 Ar, using 14.8 ± 0.3 MeV neutrons. The neutrons, produced by a deuterium-tritium generator, impinged on a stainless steel sphere filled with Ar gas highly enriched in the ⁴⁰Ar isotope and were monitored by a stack of fast-neutron activation foils. The reaction yield was measured by atom counting of long-lived ³⁹Ar with noble gas accelerator mass spectrometry and, independently, by decay counting relative to atmospheric argon (³⁹Ar/Ar= 8.12 × 10−16 ). A total ⁴⁰Ar(𝑛, 2𝑛)39 Ar cross section of 610 ± 100 mb was determined at 14.8 ± 0.3 MeV incident neutron energy. This result serves as a benchmark for recent theoretical calculations and evaluations, found to reproduce well the experimental total cross section. We use these energy-dependent theoretical cross sections together with experimental spectra of cosmogenic neutrons at different altitudes to calculate the global average rate of neutron-induced ³⁹Ar atmospheric production, resulting in 770 ± 240 39 Ar atoms/cm²/day. The secular equilibrium between the ³⁹Ar calculated production rate and radioactive decay rate leads to a partial isotopic abundance ³⁹Ar/Ar = (5.9 ± 1.8) × 10−16 , showing that ≈73% of atmospheric ³⁹Ar is produced by cosmogenic neutrons, the remaining part believed to be induced by muons and high-energy 𝛾 rays. The ⁴⁰Ar(𝑛, 2𝑛)³⁹Ar cross section at 14 MeV is also a key parameter for quantifying the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric 39 Ar produced during the thermonuclear tests of the 1960s. We estimate that anthropogenic ³⁹Ar accounts for roughly 20% of the present atmospheric inventory.

39 Ar atmospheric production↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear Data Impact on Key Metrics for a Representative Molten Chloride Fast Reactor Model

Nuclear data are an essential component of the foundation on which all modeling and simulation methods and tools are relying upon, from the front end to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. In this study, the impact of uncertainties in nuclear data is investigated for a representative molten chloride fast reactor, for several important metrics, including eigenvalue, reactivity differences, and nuclide inventories in fuel at 5-yr irradiation. Uncertainty of keff for a full core model was found to be similar between the fresh fuel and the irradiated fuel states (1.7-1.8%), with its primary driver being the uncertainty in the 235U (n,γ) cross section. The results obtained for the reactivity differences show large uncertainties, of over 100%, in elastic scattering sensitivities of several nuclides, which led to large uncertainties of temperature reactivity differences for cladding and reflector. These results provide evidence that the currently applied methods may not be sufficiently adequate for ensuring the reliable determination of such metrics.

Procop, Germina [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000342226393)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Informed Feature Selection for Data Clustering of CSP Plant Production

To make concentrating solar power (CSP) more cost competitive, rigourous optimizations must be run to improve plant design and operations. However, these optimizaitons rely on time consuming annual simulations that solve an electricity dispatch scheduling problem to maximize plant revenue. To reduce the runtime of annual dispatch simulations of CSP plants, a data clustering approach is utilized. This approach assumes that like days of revenue and electricity generation can be identified using weather and price data. Although weather and price are important factors for electricity production, this work investigates how thermal energy storage (TES) inventory at the beginning of a day, denoted as Si, can be used as a supplemental feature to group like days. A framework for creating and training a deep neural network to predict Si is proposed. This model is validated and assessed using eleven sets of testing data that were not used during training. Then, the data clustering approach is performed three seperate times with features of weather and price along with either Si from the neural network, Si from the full annual simulation, or no Si. Ultimately, the results suggest that using Si as an additional clustering feature improves the data clustering simulation accuracy by 1.4%.

Tuman, Matthew J. (ORCID:000900038772051X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Li in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field

Abstract The behavior of lithium during geothermal brine and host-rock interactions in the Salton Sea geothermal field is underconstrained. The lithium brine reservoir inventory is between 4 and 18 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with an even larger amount present within the reservoir rock mineral phases. Here, we present bulk-rock and brine Li concentration and δ7Li, and in situ Li concentrations of minerals from the California State 2-14 scientific drill core and commercial wells in the Salton Sea geothermal field to identify the mineral hosts of Li and constrain Li behavior during brine-rock interactions. Lithium contents are highest in chlorite (270–580 ppm, ~2,358 m), which encases pyrite, indicating that Li is fixed from the brine into the host rocks during hydrothermal alteration. Lithium abundances in chlorite decrease with depth (70–100 ppm, ~2,882 m), as does whole-rock Li content, whereas whole-rock δ7Li increases (δ7Li = 2.0–4.3‰, ~2,485-m depth; δ7Li = 4.3–7.9‰ from ~2,819 to ~2,882 m). This change in behavior of Li at ~2,500 m suggests temperature dependent partitioning of Li in chlorite; Li becomes more incompatible in chlorite at depths >~2,500 m, corresponding to ~325°C in the reservoir. The brines have δ7Li = 3.7 to 4.7‰ and calculated isotopic fractionation factors between the brine and the host rock agree with a change in Li behavior at ~325°C. Simple closed-system batch modeling does not describe the geothermal system, suggesting open-system behavior of Li within the Salton Sea geothermal field.

Humphreys, J↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil Temperature and Moisture, Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, beginning 2016

Daily averages of soil temperature and moisture measured once every hour at different heights, as well as daily averages of hourly measured snow depths located at Intensive Monitoring Stations at Council Road Mile Marker 71 site. Deployed at each site is an Onset HOBO U30 data logger with five smart temperature sensors and three smart soil moisture sensors (10HS). Three sites (CN_IS_4, CN_IS_6A, CN_IS_7) are equipped with a snow depth sensor. Data are retrieved annually since 2016. Contains 53 *.CSV files including a file inventory list by year. Data files have header rows, NaN fields indicate invalid or missing data, and negative vertical offsets are above ground. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗