Results for “integrated assessment” — Page 64

NASA NTRS2019

Average Path Profile of Atmospheric Temperature and Humidity Structure Parameters from a Microwave Profiling Radiometer

The values of the key atmospheric turbulence parameters (structure constants) for temperature and water vapor, that is, C(exp 2)(sub T), and C(exp 2)(sub Q), are highly dependent upon the vertical height within the atmosphere thus making it necessary to specify profiles of these values along the atmospheric propagation path. The remote sensing method suggested and described in this work makes use of a rapidly integrating microwave profiling radiometer to capture profiles of temperature and humidity through the atmosphere. The integration times of currently available profiling radiometers are such that they are approaching the temporal intervals over which one can possibly make meaningful assessments of these key atmospheric parameters. These integration times, coupled with the boundary effects of the Earth’s surface are, however, unconventional for turbulence characterization; the classical Kolmogorov turbulence theory and related 2/3 law for structure functions prevalent in the inertial subrange are no longer appropriate. An alternative to this classical approach is derived from first principles to account for the nuances of turbulent mechanics met with using radiometer sensing, that is, the large-scale turbulence driven by the various possible boundary conditions within the buoyancy subrange. Analytical expressions connecting the measured structure functions to the corresponding structure parameters are obtained. The theory is then applied to an experimental scenario involving radiometric profile measurements of temperature and shows very good results.

Manning, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2024

CLIMATE CHANGE 2023 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It integrates the main findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) based on contributions from the three Working Groups, and the three Special Reports. The summary for Policymakers (SPM) is structured in three parts: SPM.A Current Status and Trends, SPM.B Future Climate Change, Risks, and Long-Term Responses, and SPM.C Responses in the Near Term. This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development, and reflects the increasing diversity of actors involved in climate action. Based on scientific understanding, key findings can be formulated as statements of fact or associated with an assessed level of confidence using the IPCC calibrated languages.

climate impacts↗

NASA NTRS2010

Linking Indigenous Knowledge and Observed Climate Change Studies

We present indigenous knowledge narratives and explore their connections to documented temperature and other climate changes and observed climate change impact studies. We then propose a framework for enhancing integration of these indigenous narratives of observed climate change with global assessments. Our aim is to contribute to the thoughtful and respectful integration of indigenous knowledge with scientific data and analysis, so that this rich body of knowledge can inform science, and so that indigenous and traditional peoples can use the tools and methods of science for the benefit of their communities if they choose to do so. Enhancing ways of understanding such connections are critical as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment process gets underway.

Alexander, Chief Clarence↗

DOE OSTI2024

An integrated metagenomic, metabolomic and transcriptomic survey of Populus across genotypes and environments

Abstract Bridging molecular information to ecosystem-level processes would provide the capacity to understand system vulnerability and, potentially, a means for assessing ecosystem health. Here, we present an integrated dataset containing environmental and metagenomic information from plant-associated microbial communities, plant transcriptomics, plant and soil metabolomics, and soil chemistry and activity characterization measurements derived from the model tree species Populus trichocarpa . Soil, rhizosphere, root endosphere, and leaf samples were collected from 27 different P. trichocarpa genotypes grown in two different environments leading to an integrated dataset of 318 metagenomes, 98 plant transcriptomes, and 314 metabolomic profiles that are supported by diverse soil measurements. This expansive dataset will provide insights into causal linkages that relate genomic features and molecular level events to system-level properties and their environmental influences.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the accuracy of time-fraction and ductility exhaustion approaches for creep-fatigue damage prediction through feature-test validation

Determining creep-fatigue damage formation is critical for elevated temperature components integrity. This study evaluates creep-fatigue assessments with emphasis on differences between creep damage models. Evaluated are the time-fraction model and the classical and stress-modified ductility exhaustion creep damage models. This work extends the domain of stress-modified ductility exhaustion models by introducing and validating such formalism to Ni-based alloys. The fidelity of the assessments was benchmarked against uniaxial creep-fatigue and multiaxial feature tests of Alloy 617. For uniaxial specimens, best estimate predictions rank ductility exhaustion as the most accurate and precise and time-fraction as markedly conservative. For feature tests, ductility exhaustion predictions are within < 4.0 times difference, whereas time-fraction underpredicts life by factors of 7–14. The observations suggest ductility exhaustion models as alternative to time-fraction models in design codes for situations requiring characterization of the design margin. Further work in employing such models to assess other relevant phenomena (e.g., stress relaxation cracking) is discussed.

creep-fatigue↗

NASA NTRS2018

Assessment of Noise Reduction Concepts for Leading-Edge Slat Noise

The leading-edge slat of a high-lift airfoil can be a significant noise contributor during aircraft landing. This paper summarizes the effects of several passive noise reduction devices on the 30P30N high-lift airfoil. Experiments are conducted on a two-dimensional multi-element high-lift airfoil with leading-edge slat extensions, gap filler, and cove filler in an anechoic wind tunnel to evaluate the effect of passive flow control on the acoustics generated by the unsteady flow field. Slat geometry modifications associated with the treatments alter the flow field in the region that dominates the generation of the acoustic field. Three angles of attack (a(k) = 8°, 10°, and 15.5°) and three different Reynolds numbers (Re(c) = 1.2e6, 1.5e6, and 1.71e6) are selected as the test conditions. Steady surface pressure measurements are conducted to assess the effect of the treatments on the lift and drag. Unsteady surface pressure measurements along with the far-field acoustic array measurements are performed to evaluate the changes in near- and far-field pressure fluctuations, respectively. Delay and Sum (DAS) beamforming method is applied to locate the noise sources on the model and provide integrated spectra. Implementation difficulties with the gap filler led to structural integration deficiencies that prevented a fair assessment of this technology. Among the other passive devices, the cove filler s the most effective noise reduction, along with a negligible change in the aerodynamic metrics.

Zhang, Yang↗

DOE OSTI2022

Failure Mechanism Traceability and Application in Human System Interface of Nuclear Power Plants using RESHA

In recent years, there has been considerable effort to modernize existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C). However, there has also been considerable concern both by industry and regulatory bodies for the risk and consequence analysis of these systems. Of particular concern are digital common cause failures (CCFs) specifically related to software defects. These “misbehaviors” by the software can occur in both the control and monitoring of a system. While many new methods have been proposed to identify potential software failure modes, such as Systems-theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), etc., these methods are focused primarily on the control action pathway of a system. In contrast, the information feedback pathway lacks unsafe control actions (UCAs), which are typically related to software basic events; thus, assessment of software basic events in such systems is unclear. In this work, we present the idea of intermediate processors and unsafe information flow (UIF) to help safety analysts trace failure mechanisms in the feedback pathway and how they can be integrated into a fault tree for improved assessment capability. The concepts presented are demonstrated in two comprehensive case studies, a smart sensor integrated platform for unmanned autonomous vehicles and another on a representative advanced human system interface (HSI) for safety critical plant monitoring. The qualitative software basic events are identified, and a fault tree analysis is conducted based on a modified Redundancy-guided Systems-theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) methodology. The case studies demonstrate the use of UIF and intermediate processors in the fault tree to improve traceability of software failures in highly complex digital instrumentation feedback. The improved method can also clarify fault tree construction when multiple component dependencies are present in the system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Failure Mechanism Traceability and Application in Human System Interface of Nuclear Power Plants using RESHA

In recent years, there has been considerable effort to modernize existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C). However, there has also been considerable concern both by industry and regulatory bodies for the risk and consequence analysis of these systems. Of particular concern are digital common cause failures (CCFs) specifically related to software defects. These “misbehaviors” by the software can occur in both the control and monitoring of a system. While many new methods have been proposed to identify potential software failure modes, such as Systems-theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), etc., these methods are focused primarily on the control action pathway of a system. In contrast, the information feedback pathway lacks unsafe control actions (UCAs), which are typically related to software basic events; thus, assessment of software basic events in such systems is unclear. In this work, we present the idea of intermediate processors and unsafe information flow (UIF) to help safety analysts trace failure mechanisms in the feedback pathway and how they can be integrated into a fault tree for improved assessment capability. The concepts presented are demonstrated in two comprehensive case studies, a smart sensor integrated platform for unmanned autonomous vehicles and another on a representative advanced human system interface (HSI) for safety critical plant monitoring. The qualitative software basic events are identified, and a fault tree analysis is conducted based on a modified Redundancy-guided Systems-theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) methodology. The case studies demonstrate the use of UIF and intermediate processors in the fault tree to improve traceability of software failures in highly complex digital instrumentation feedback. The improved method can also clarify fault tree construction when multiple component dependencies are present in the system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving the Cyber Resiliency and Security Posture of Public Power (Final Report)

The key objective of Improving the Cyber Resiliency and Security Posture of Public Power (Project) was to develop a culture of cyber resiliency and security within the public power community. The relative smaller size and unique structure of community-owned electric utilities can sometimes present challenges in immediate recognition of threats and the escalation of potential incidents. The Project offered targeted education, coordination, capability building, and resources to help the public power community better understand, install, and implement cyber and physical resiliency and security systems. The American Public Power Association (APPA) accelerated efforts to develop resources for and with the public power community to understand and implement resiliency, cybersecurity and cyber-physical solutions, including refining and improving the adoption of advanced control concepts. The Project consisted of four major multi-pronged tasks which included: 1) Advance cyber resiliency and security assessments; 2) Conduct, evaluate, and use the results of onsite vulnerability assessments; 3) Research, evaluate, deploy, and integrate both commercial and pre-commercial security technologies; and 4) Research, evaluate, and implement information sharing mechanisms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 4.1 Technical Reference Manual

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.1. The two most significant changes for HyRAM+ version 4.1 from HyRAM+ version 4.0 are direct incorporation of unconfined overpressure into the QRA calculations and modification of the models for cryogenic liquid flow through an orifice. In QRA mode, the user no longer needs to input peak overpressure and impulse values that were calculated separately; rather, the unconfined overpressure is estimated for the given system inputs, leak size, and occupant location. The orifice flow model now solves for the maximum mass flux through the orifice at constant entropy while conserving energy, which does not require a direct speed of sound calculation. This does not affect the mass flow for all-gaseous releases; the method results in the same speed of sound for choked flow. However, this method does result in a higher (and more realistic) mass flow rate for a given leak size for liquid releases than was previously calculated.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2013

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

kidney stones↗

NASA NTRS1992

Earth science information: Planning for the integration and use of global change information

The Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) was founded in 1989 as a non-profit corporation dedicated to facilitating access to, use and understanding of global change information worldwide. The Consortium was created to cooperate and coordinate with organizations and researchers throughout the global change community to further access the most advanced technology, the latest scientific research, and the best information available for critical environmental decision making. CIESIN study efforts are guided by Congressional mandates to 'convene key present and potential users to assess the need for investment in integration of earth science information,' to 'outline the desirable pattern of interaction with the scientific and policy community,' and to 'develop recommendations and draft plans to achieve the appropriate level of effort in the use of earth science data for research and public policy purposes.' In addition, CIESIN is tasked by NASA to develop a data center that would extend the benefits of Earth Observing System (EOS) to the users of global change information related to human dimensions issues. For FY 1991, CIESIN focused on two main objectives. The first addressed the identification of information needs of global change research and non-research user groups worldwide. The second focused on an evaluation of the most efficient mechanisms for making this information available in usable forms.

Lousma, Jack R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Functional Analysis for an Integrated Capability of Arrival/Departure/Surface Management with Tactical Runway Management

The runway is a critical resource of any air transport system. It is used for arrivals, departures, and for taxiing aircraft and is universally acknowledged as a constraining factor to capacity for both surface and airspace operations. It follows that investigation of the effective use of runways, both in terms of selection and assignment as well as the timing and sequencing of the traffic is paramount to the efficient traffic flows. Both the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and NASA have developed concepts and tools to improve atomic aspects of coordinated arrival/departure/surface management operations and runway configuration management. In December 2012, NASA entered into a Collaborative Agreement with DLR. Four collaborative work areas were identified, one of which is called "Runway Management." As part of collaborative research in the "Runway Management" area, which is conducted with the DLR Institute of Flight Guidance, located in Braunschweig, the goal is to develop an integrated system comprised of the three DLR tools - arrival, departure, and surface management (collectively referred to as A/D/S-MAN) - and NASA's tactical runway configuration management (TRCM) tool. To achieve this goal, it is critical to prepare a concept of operations (ConOps) detailing how the NASA runway management and DLR arrival, departure, and surface management tools will function together to the benefit of each. To assist with the preparation of the ConOps, the integrated NASA and DLR tools are assessed through a functional analysis method described in this report. The report first provides the highlevel operational environments for air traffic management (ATM) in Germany and in the U.S., and the descriptions of the DLR's A/D/S-MAN and NASA's TRCM tools at the level of details necessary to compliment the purpose of the study. Functional analyses of each tool and a completed functional analysis of an integrated system design are presented next in the report. Future efforts to fully develop the ConOps will include: developing scenarios to fully test environmental, procedural, and data availability assumptions; executing the analysis by a walk-through of the integrated system using these scenarios; defining the appropriate role of operators in terms of their monitoring requirements and decision authority; executing the analysis by a walk-through of the integrated system with operator involvement; characterizing the environmental, system data requirements, and operator role assumptions for the ConOps.

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integration of Uncertainty Quantification in a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering Framework

This paper presents a technical approach to improve the confidence in the systems analysis process by integrating Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques within a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) framework. The MBSA&E architecture uses system models and multidisciplinary analytical solutions as central artifacts for system design and analysis. The integration of UQ enables engineers to assess and mitigate uncertainties associated with a system model, design parameters, and constraint inputs, leading to more complete design studies and further informed decision-making processes. The proposed approach leverages the strengths of MBSA&E and extends it with a UQ methodology to quantify uncertainties in the input parameters and to trace the uncertainties as they propagate throughout the system model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of an integrated MBSA&E-UQ approach, a case study involving a simplified analysis of a Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) concept vehicle is performed. This integration enables a more comprehensive evaluation of system performance and behavior under uncertainty and a more robust approach for system design and analysis. Lastly, the paper addresses the challenges and considerations associated with integrating UQ into an MBSA&E framework.

systems analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integration of Uncertainty Quantification in a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering Framework

This paper presents a technical approach to improve the confidence in the systems analysis process by integrating Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques within a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) framework. The MBSA&E architecture uses system models and multidisciplinary analytical solutions as central artifacts for system design and analysis. The integration of UQ enables engineers to assess and mitigate uncertainties associated with a system model, design parameters, and constraint inputs, leading to more complete design studies and further informed decision-making processes. The proposed approach leverages the strengths of MBSA&E and extends it with a UQ methodology to quantify uncertainties in the input parameters and to trace the uncertainties as they propagate throughout the system model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of an integrated MBSA&E-UQ approach, a case study involving a simplified analysis of a Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) concept vehicle is performed. This integration enables a more comprehensive evaluation of system performance and behavior under uncertainty and a more robust approach for system design and analysis. Lastly, the paper addresses the challenges and considerations associated with integrating UQ into an MBSA&E framework.

systems analysis↗

NASA NTRS2010

Cabin Noise Studies for the Orion Spacecraft Crew Module

Controlling cabin acoustic noise levels in the Crew Module (CM) of the Orion spacecraft is critical for adequate speech intelligibility, to avoid fatigue and to prevent any possibility of temporary and permanent hearing loss. A vibroacoustic model of the Orion CM cabin has been developed using Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) to assess compliance with acoustic Constellation Human Systems Integration Requirements (HSIR) for the on-orbit mission phase. Cabin noise in the Orion CM needs to be analyzed at the vehicle-level to assess the cumulative acoustic effect of various Orion systems at the crewmember's ear. The SEA model includes all major structural and acoustic subsystems inside the CM including the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS), which is the primary noise contributor in the cabin during the on-orbit phase. The ECLSS noise sources used to excite the vehicle acoustic model were derived using a combination of established empirical predictions and fan development acoustic testing. Baseline noise predictions were compared against acoustic HSIR requirements. Key noise offenders and paths were identified and ranked using noise transfer path analysis. Parametric studies were conducted with various acoustic treatment packages in the cabin to reduce the noise levels and define vehicle-level mass impacts. An acoustic test mockup of the CM cabin has also been developed and noise treatment optimization tests were conducted to validate the results of the analyses.

Dandaroy, Indranil↗

NASA NTRS2014

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

Decker, Ryan K.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

Decker, Ryan K.↗