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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

Multicriterion Benefit Evaluation of Deploying New Battery Technology with Increased Capacity at a Generic Nuclear Power Plant

This presentation is prepared for the DOE LWRS RISA Pathway Stakeholder Engagement Meeting on October 13-14, 2021. Nuclear power plant (NPP) safety improvements are routinely made by plant licensees and regulators. Examples of plant improvements include accident-tolerant fuel, diverse and flexible coping strategies, passive cooling systems, and increased battery capacity. A combined use of these plant improvements could lead to plant designs with enhanced resilience, allowing NPPs to better cope with both internal and external hazards and keep the plant operating safely, efficiently, and economically. This presentation focuses on increased battery capacity and evaluates the potential costs and benefits of deploying batteries with increased capacities at a generic boiling water reactor (BWR) NPP. A multicriterion benefit evaluation methodology is used for the cost-benefit analysis. Ten alternatives for extending battery capacity are developed, including eight alternatives to provide additional direct-current power and one alternative to provide additional alternating-current power. Potential benefits of reducing plant risk are quantified through incorporating the alternatives into loss-of-offsite-power scenarios of the generic BWR probabilistic risk assessment model. Potential costs of implementing the alternatives are qualitatively discussed and ranked. The alternatives are then compared based on their impacts on plant risk and economics.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Adult weight change and premenopausal breast cancer risk: A prospective pooled analysis of data from 628,463 women

Early-adulthood body size is strongly inversely associated with risk of premenopausal breast cancer. It is unclear whether subsequent changes in weight affect risk. We pooled individual-level data from 17 prospective studies to investigate the association of weight change with premenopausal breast cancer risk, considering strata of initial weight, timing of weight change, other breast cancer risk factors and breast cancer subtype. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained using Cox regression. Among 628,463 women, 10,886 were diagnosed with breast cancer before menopause. Models adjusted for initial weight at ages 18–24 years and other breast cancer risk factors showed that weight gain from ages 18–24 to 35–44 or to 45–54 years was inversely associated with breast cancer overall (e.g., HR per 5 kg to ages 45–54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95–0.98) and with oestrogen-receptor(ER)-positive breast cancer (HR per 5 kg to ages 45–54: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94–0.98). Weight gain from ages 25–34 was inversely associated with ER-positive breast cancer only and weight gain from ages 35–44 was not associated with risk. None of these weight gains were associated with ER-negative breast cancer. Weight loss was not consistently associated with overall or ER-specific risk after adjusting for initial weight. Weight increase from early-adulthood to ages 45–54 years is associated with a reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk independently of early-adulthood weight. Biological explanations are needed to account for these two separate factors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Pyrotechnic hazards classification and evaluation program. Electrostatic vulnerability of the E8 and XM15/XM165 clusters, phase 2

An investigation into the electrostatic phenomena associated with the manufacturing and handling of explosives is discussed. The testing includes measurement of the severity of the primary charge generation mechanism, triboelectric effects between dissimilar surfaces; refinement of equivalent circuits of the XM15/XM165 and E8 fuse trains; evaluation of the electrostatic spark discharge characteristics predicted by an equivalent circuit analysis; and determination of the spark ignition sensitivity of materials, components, junctions, and subassemblies which compose the XM15/XM165 and E8 units. Special studies were also performed. These special tests included ignition sensitivity of the complete XM15 fuse train when subjected to discharges through its entire length, measurement of electrostatic potentials which occur during the E8 foaming operation during fabrication, and investigation of the inadvertent functioning of an XM15 cluster during manufacturing. The test results are discussed and related to the effectiveness of suggested modification to reduce the electrostatic ignition sensitivity.

Source record↗

Dietary B group vitamin intake and the bladder cancer risk: a pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies

Abstract Purpose Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). The B group complex vitamins involve diverse biological functions that could be influential in cancer prevention. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between various components of the B group vitamin complex and BC risk. Methods Dietary data were pooled from four cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of B group vitamins and pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were obtained using Cox-regression models. Dose–response relationships were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. Results In total, 2915 BC cases and 530,012 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an increased BC risk for moderate intake of vitamin B1 (HR B1 : 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00–1.20). In men, moderate intake of the vitamins B1, B2, energy-related vitamins and high intake of vitamin B1 were associated with an increased BC risk (HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.02–1.26), 1.14 (1.02–1.26), 1.13 (1.02–1.26; 1.13 (1.02–1.26), respectively). In women, high intake of all vitamins and vitamin combinations, except for the entire complex, showed an inverse association (HR (95% CI): 0.80 (0.67–0.97), 0.83 (0.70–1.00); 0.77 (0.63–0.93), 0.73 (0.61–0.88), 0.82 (0.68–0.99), 0.79 (0.66–0.95), 0.80 (0.66–0.96), 0.74 (0.62–0.89), 0.76 (0.63–0.92), respectively). Dose–response analyses showed an increased BC risk for higher intake of vitamin B1 and B12. Conclusion Our findings highlight the importance of future research on the food sources of B group vitamins in the context of the overall and sex-stratified diet.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Historical Analysis of Crane Mishaps at Kennedy Space Center

Cranes and hoists are widely used in many areas. Crane accidents and handling mishaps are responsible for injuries, costly equipment damage, and program delays. Most crane accidents are caused by preventable factors. Understanding these factors is critical when designing cranes and preparing lift plans. Analysis of previous accidents provides insight into current recommendations for crane safety. Cranes and hoists are used throughout Kennedy Space Center to lift everything from machine components to critical flight hardware. Unless they are trained crane operators, most NASA employees and contractors do not need to undergo specialized crane training and may not understand the safety issues surrounding the use of cranes and hoists. A single accident with a crane or hoist can injure or kill people, cause severe equipment damage, and delay or terminate a program. Handling mishaps can also have a significant impact on the program. Simple mistakes like bouncing or jarring a load, or moving the crane down when it should go up, can damage fragile flight hardware and cause major delays in processing. Hazardous commodities (high pressure gas, hypergolic propellants, and solid rocket motors) can cause life safety concerns for the workers performing the lifting operations. Most crane accidents are preventable with the correct training and understanding of potential hazards. Designing the crane with human factors taken into account can prevent many accidents. Engineers are also responsible for preparing lift plans where understanding the safety issues can prevent or mitigate potential accidents. Cranes are widely used across many areas of KSC. Failure of these cranes often leads to injury, high damage costs, and significant delays in program objectives. Following a basic set of principles and procedures during design, fabrication, testing, regular use, and maintenance can significantly minimize many of these failures. As the accident analysis shows, load drops are often caused or influenced by human factors. Therefore, proper training and understanding of crane safety throughout the workforce is critical. It is important that the engineers designing the cranes, lift planners preparing the lift plans, operators performing the lifts, and training officers conducting the operator training all understand the problems that can happen with cranes and how to ensure the safety of the workforce and equipment being lifted.

Materials Handling↗

Sequential Fracture Activation and Stress Evolution During EGS Stimulation at Utah FORGE Revealed by Waveform Cross‐Correlation

Mapping fracture networks in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) is essential for optimizing reservoir performance, yet complex fracture evolution during stimulation remains difficult to resolve. This study examines the evolution of microseismicity and fracture networks during stage 3 of the 2022 EGS stimulation at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy site. We map the fracture network represented by 20 clusters of seismic events identified by waveform similarities with cross-correlation. We characterize their geometric properties such as strike, dip, length, and width, and analyze the time evolution of activated fractures. The results reveal a systematic fracture evolution: early activation of pre-existing natural fractures, complex network development during peak injection, and continued activation of less favorably oriented fractures post-injection. Magnitude calibration using the Principal Component Analysis of cross-correlated waveforms improves relative amplitude measurements, refining estimations of the Gutenberg-Richter b-values with spatial variations in b-values suggesting stress re-distribution across the stimulated area. Analysis of the stress state of selected fractures further shows that fractures requiring higher excess pore pressure primarily activate at the end of injection and post-injection, highlighting stress transfer due to pore pressure as a dominant triggering mechanism. These findings provide insights into fracture propagation, stress evolution, and seismic hazard assessment in EGS reservoirs.

Asirifi, Richard [Texas A & M Univ., College Stati↗

Martian surface simulations

Current scenarios for a Mars landing involve the extensive analysis of the surface near the landing site. Pinpoint landing, for example, requires a detailed mapping of the area from orbit for landmark identification and landing site selection, and the use by the lander of its own imaging data to recognize these landmarks and to guide itself safely to the surface. Hazard avoidance requires sufficient orbital imaging to ensure that safe landing sites exist, with the lander using its sensory data to find one of them. Once on the surface, a rover must be able to avoid or surmount obstacles, travel across surfaces with varying compositions and slopes, and navigate to a desired destination. Computer simulated Martian surfaces are being constructed to aid in the development of these exploration technologies. These surface simulations attempt to mimic the specific geologic episodes that built the surface, such as cratering, lava flows, and aeolian activity. Each episode takes a preexisting surface as a starting point, alters it in some way, and stores the new surface for further processing. This modular construction makes it possible for new processes to be included without altering existing software.

Gaskell, R. W.↗

Microphysics, Meteorology, Microwave and Modeling of Mediterranean Storms: The M(sup 5) Problem

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, particularly from synoptic scale down to mesoscale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the September 25-28/1992 Genova flood event, the October 5-7/1998 Friuli flood event, and the October 13-15/2000 Piemonte flood event (all taking place in northern Italy), developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within the storm domains. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting proc esses. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size distributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within the storm environments. This paper presents detailed 4-dimensional analyses of the microphysical elements of the three severe Mediterranean storms identified above, investigated with the aid of SSM/I and TRMM satellite measurements (and other remote sensing measurements). The analyses are guided by nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulations at high resolution of the intense rain producing portions of the storm environments. The results emphasize how meteorological controls taking place at the large scale, coupled with localized terrain controls, ultimately determine the most salient features of the bulk microphysical properties of the storms. These results have bearing on precipitation remote sensing from space, and the role of modeling in designing precipitation retrieval algorithms.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA's Software Safety Standard

NASA relies more and more on software to control, monitor, and verify its safety critical systems, facilities and operations. Since the 1960's there has hardly been a spacecraft launched that does not have a computer on board that will provide command and control services. There have been recent incidents where software has played a role in high-profile mission failures and hazardous incidents. For example, the Mars Orbiter, Mars Polar Lander, the DART (Demonstration of Autonomous Rendezvous Technology), and MER (Mars Exploration Rover) Spirit anomalies were all caused or contributed to by software. The Mission Control Centers for the Shuttle, ISS, and unmanned programs are highly dependant on software for data displays, analysis, and mission planning. Despite this growing dependence on software control and monitoring, there has been little to no consistent application of software safety practices and methodology to NASA's projects with safety critical software. Meanwhile, academia and private industry have been stepping forward with procedures and standards for safety critical systems and software, for example Dr. Nancy Leveson's book Safeware: System Safety and Computers. The NASA Software Safety Standard, originally published in 1997, was widely ignored due to its complexity and poor organization. It also focused on concepts rather than definite procedural requirements organized around a software project lifecycle. Led by NASA Headquarters Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, the NASA Software Safety Standard has recently undergone a significant update. This new standard provides the procedures and guidelines for evaluating a project for safety criticality and then lays out the minimum project lifecycle requirements to assure the software is created, operated, and maintained in the safest possible manner. This update of the standard clearly delineates the minimum set of software safety requirements for a project without detailing the implementation for those requirements. This allows the projects leeway to meet these requirements in many forms that best suit a particular project's needs and safety risk. In other words, it tells the project what to do, not how to do it. This update also incorporated advances in the state of the practice of software safety from academia and private industry. It addresses some of the more common issues now facing software developers in the NASA environment such as the use of Commercial-Off-the-Shelf Software (COTS), Modified OTS (MOTS), Government OTS (GOTS), and reused software. A team from across NASA developed the update and it has had both NASA-wide internal reviews by software engineering, quality, safety, and project management. It has also had expert external review. This presentation and paper will discuss the new NASA Software Safety Standard, its organization, and key features. It will start with a brief discussion of some NASA mission failures and incidents that had software as one of their root causes. It will then give a brief overview of the NASA Software Safety Process. This will include an overview of the key personnel responsibilities and functions that must be performed for safety-critical software.

Ramsay, Christopher M.↗

The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project Update

The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) is managing the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling tools and data products that support lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test, and operations associated with crewed and/or robotic operations on the lunar surface. In addition, LMMP should prove to be a convenient and useful tool for scientific analysis and for education and public outreach (E/PO) activities. LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Lunar Prospector, Clementine, Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, and Chandrayaan-1) as available and appropriate. LMMP will provide such products as image mosaics, DEMs, hazard assessment maps, temperature maps, lighting maps and models, gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and ensure the highest quality data products. A beta version of the LMMP software was released for limited distribution in December 2009, with the public release of version 1 expected in the Fall of 2010.

Noble, S.↗

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗

Landslide Hazard is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.

Thomas A Stanley↗

Development Testing and Analysis of the Integrated Gateway-ESPRIT Bipropellant Refuelling System

The Gateway will be humanity’s first space station orbiting the Moon completed by NASA in partnership with ESA and other US and international partners. The Gateway will provide critical support to sustainable human exploration on the moon through the Artemis program. To enable the Lunar Gateway to complete its mission, on orbit refuelling is essential. The ESPRIT Refuelling Module (ERM) will provide the capability to transfer propellants, MMH and MON-3, through the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) to the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE). The transfer of these propellants carries known risks and hazards. These hazards include overpressure of the propellant lines during priming sequences between modules and during refuelling pause operations. To support the early system development and to mitigate these risks, a collaborative test program between NASA, ESA and Thales Alenia Space was completed at the Thales Alenia Space test facility in Harwell, UK. This test program integrated fluidic breadboards of the ERM, HALO and PPE modules. The objectives of the test program were to demonstrate and characterise critical performance and transient operations, inform refuelling concept of operations and to calibrate and validate numerical models of the refuelling subsystem in EcosimPro. To support the completion of this final objective a detailed model of the integrated breadboard was developed in EcosimPro and key steady-state and transient test cases were simulated. As an industry first, a National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) database correlation for Hydrofluoroether (HFE-7000) was used as a mixed oxides of nitrogen (MON-3) simulant with EcosimPro and European Space Propulsion System Simulation (ESPSS) libraries to result in a more accurate analysis for transient phenomenon such as priming. The test and simulation data showed good agreement validating the model for further system analysis as the ERM design progresses.

Refuelling↗

Derivation of terrain slope from SAR interferometric phase gradient

The relationship between the gradient of the interferometric phase and the terrain slope, which, it is thought, would allow a derivation of the terrain slopes without phase unwrapping, is presented. A linear relationship between the interferometric phase gradient and the terrain slopes was found. A quantitative error analysis showed that only very small errors are introduced by these approximations for orbital Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) geometries. An example of a slope map for repeat pass interferometry from ERS-1 SAR data is given. A number of direct and indirect applications of the terrain slope are indicated: erosion and avalanche hazard studies, radiometric calibration of SAR data, and normalization of the interferometric correlation coefficient.

Wegmueller, Urs↗

Large Scale Deformation of the Western US Cordillera

Destructive earthquakes occur throughout the western US Cordillera (WUSC), not just within the San Andreas fault zone. But because we do not understand the present-day large-scale deformations of the crust throughout the WUSC, our ability to assess the potential for seismic hazards in this region remains severely limited. To address this problem, we are using a large collection of Global Positioning System (GPS) networks which spans the WUSC to precisely quantify present-day large-scale crustal deformations in a single uniform reference frame. Our work can roughly be divided into an analysis of the GPS observations to infer the deformation field across and within the entire plate boundary zone and an investigation of the implications of this deformation field regarding plate boundary dynamics.

Bennett, Richard A.↗

Advances in POST2 End-to-End Descent and Landing Simulation for the ALHAT Project

Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) is used as a basis for an end-to-end descent and landing trajectory simulation that is essential in determining design and integration capability and system performance of the lunar descent and landing system and environment models for the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project. The POST2 simulation provides a six degree-of-freedom capability necessary to test, design and operate a descent and landing system for successful lunar landing. This paper presents advances in the development and model-implementation of the POST2 simulation, as well as preliminary system performance analysis, used for the testing and evaluation of ALHAT project system models.

Davis, Jody L.↗

Public Health Data Applications Using the CDC Tracking Network: Augmenting Environmental Hazard Information with Lower-latency NASA Data

Exposure to environmental hazards is an important determinant of health, and the frequency and severity of exposures is expected to be impacted by climate change. Through a partnership with the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network is integrating timely observations and model data of priority environmental hazards into its publicly accessible Data Explorer (https://ephtracking.cdc.gov/DataExplorer/). Newly integrated datasets over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) include: daily 5-day forecasts of air quality based on the Goddard Earth Observing System Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF), daily historical (1980-present) concentrations of speciated PM2.5 based on the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily near real-time maps of flooding (MCDWD). Data integrated into the CDC Tracking Network are broadly intended to improve community health through action by informing both research and early warning activities, including (1) describing temporal and spatial trends in disease and potential environmental exposures, (2) identifying populations most affected, (3) generating hypotheses about associations between health and environmental exposures, and (4) developing, guiding, and assessing environmental public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing or eliminating health outcomes associated with environmental factors.

air quality↗

Kentucky Disasters: Multi-Hazard Approach to Mapping Flood Susceptibility and Vulnerability in Kentucky

Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster in Kentucky, with major flood events in 2022 and 2023 highlighting the need for flood risk assessment. In partnership with the National Weather Service Jackson and Paducah Forecast Offices and the Kentucky Climate Center, we mapped flood risk in Kentucky using a multi-hazard approach that considered two dimensions of risk: flood susceptibility based on a weighted combination of seven physical factors and flood vulnerability based on 13 socioeconomic and infrastructure factors. We additionally analyzed NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations of surface soil moisture to explore the utility of SMAP observations for future analysis of flood risk. By analyzing flood susceptibility, we found that with equal rainfall, western Kentucky generally displays a higher propensity to flood than eastern Kentucky. In contrast, our flood vulnerability analysis indicated that more vulnerable areas were generally concentrated in the eastern part of the state. Through a combined perspective, our flood risk analysis identified much of the state as having moderate degrees of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. Our parallel analysis of antecedent soil moisture found that SMAP soil moisture levels were variable in the months leading up to each flood event but were drier than normal in the month prior to the 2023 event, as shown by negative soil moisture anomalies. These results were limited by challenges with weighting input parameters and a lack of validation but overall demonstrate the feasibility of using GIS and Earth observations for mapping flood risk and soil moisture.

analytic hierarchy process↗