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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

Uncertainty Analysis and Software Verification

Uncertainty analyses are an important part of calibrations and testing. They allow researchers insight on how to reduce and mitigate errors in testing. Each device used in testing introduces error in a system, as well as other sources such as environmental conditions, electronics, analog to digital, and random errors. Each source is carefully examined to identify how much error it introduces to a system. These sources are then combined using various methods of uncertainty calculations. To verify and validate software, a manual calculation is required to ensure the software is performing as intended. Using Excel to verify the calculations, we can identify discrepancies within the software. The root of the sum of the squares uncertainty (RSS) is used to find the combined uncertainty of a device at one and two standard deviations of the mean. Calibrations on accelerometers are performed using a vibration system along with a back-toback reference accelerometer. The vibration system takes a reference point at 100Hz frequency at 10g amplitude. The sensitivities are collected at each dialed in frequency. The sensitivity of the device represents the electrical output of the UUT (mV, pC, etc.) per unit of acceleration (g). The full history of sensitivities of selected accelerometers are used to find the averaged, standard deviation, and uncertainty of the device at each frequency tested. The uncertainty calculations from excel and the software are then compared.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Magnetic Navigation for GPS-Denied Airborne Applications

Most current flight systems are dependent on GPS for navigation. Recently, however, navigation in GPS-denied environments has become an area of intensive research. Additional navigation sensor data can be obtained from visual observations (stars or terrain), inertial measurement units, radar, measurements of the local magnetic field, or perhaps even gravity. Absolute and relative positioning via magnetic field measurements have been shown to be viable in many applications including ground navigation, low altitude aircraft flight, and spaceflight. There is greater variability in the magnetic field over shorter distances when flying at low altitude and in ground applications, leading to more accurate positioning. However, ground-based magnetic navigation is often heavily influenced by man-made structures, especially in urban environments. This is not the case for airborne magnetic navigation since the influence of buildings, roads, etc. is negligible for typical aircraft altitudes. For absolute magnetic navigation, the positioning accuracy decreases as altitude increases for a given vehicle velocity, but the observed time variability in the field can be reclaimed by traveling faster through the field. Thus, navigation accuracy becomes a balance of speed and altitude since the higher altitude can be counterbalanced by higher velocity. To understand these effects quantitatively, we explored various techniques to aid a simulated inertial measurement unit with magnetic information. Using a technique known as two-dimensional magnetic map matching, we simulated the performance of airborne magnetic navigation at fixed speed while varying the altitude, flight direction, magnetometer data collection time, reference magnetic map bias error, and type of trajectory (over land or over ocean).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

FY21 Report on Activities for EBS International

This report summarizes the FY21 Activities for EBS International Collaborations Work Package. The international collaborations work packages aim to leverage knowledge, expertise, and tools from the international nuclear waste community, as deemed relevant according to SFWST “roadmap” priorities. This report describes research and development (R&D) activities conducted during fiscal year 2021(FY21) specifically related to the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) R&D Work Package in the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign supported by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE). It fulfills the SFWST Campaign deliverable M4SF- 21SN010308062. The R&D activities described in this report focus on understanding EBS component evolution and interactions within the EBS, as well as interactions between the host media and the EBS. A primary goal is to advance the development of process models that can be implemented directly within the Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) platform or that can contribute to the safety case in some manner such as building confidence, providing further insight into the processes being modeled, establishing better constraints on barrier performance, etc. Sandia National Laboratories is participating in THM modeling in the international projects EBS Task Force and DECOVALEX 2023. EBS Task Force, Task 11 is on modeling of laboratory-scale High Temperature Column Test conducted at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. DECOVALEX 2023, Task C is on THM modeling of the full-scale emplacement experiment (FE experiment) at the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory, Switzerland. This report summarizes Sandia’s progress in the modeling studies of DECOVALEX 2023, Task C. Modeling studies related to the High Temperature Column Test will be documented in future reports.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Multimode Metastructures: Novel Hybrid 3D Lattice Topologies

With the rapid proliferation of additive manufacturing and 3D printing technologies, architected cellular solids including truss-like 3D lattice topologies offer the opportunity to program the effective material response through topological design at the mesoscale. The present report summarizes several of the key findings from a 3-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program. The program set out to explore novel lattice topologies that can be designed to control, redirect, or dissipate energy from one or multiple insult environments relevant to Sandia missions, including crush, shock/impact, vibration, thermal, etc. In the first 4 sections, we document four novel lattice topologies stemming from this study: coulombic lattices, multi-morphology lattices, interpenetrating lattices, and pore-modified gyroid cellular solids, each with unique properties that had not been achieved by existing cellular/lattice metamaterials. The fifth section explores how unintentional lattice imperfections stemming from the manufacturing process, primarily sur face roughness in the case of laser powder bed fusion, serve to cause stochastic response but that in some cases such as elastic response the stochastic behavior is homogenized through the adoption of lattices. In the sixth section we explore a novel neural network screening process that allows such stocastic variability to be predicted. In the last three sections, we explore considerations of computational design of lattices. Specifically, in section 7 using a novel generative optimization scheme to design novel pareto-optimal lattices for multi-objective environments. In section 8, we use computational design to optimize a metallic lattice structure to absorb impact energy for a 1000 ft/s impact. And in section 9, we develop a modified micromorphic continuum model to solve wave propagation problems in lattices efficiently.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of Electro-chemical Battery Model for Plug-and-Play Eco-system Library

Energy storage components are fundamental to the concept of an Integrated Energy System (IES). They serve to store surplus energy during low-demand periods for later release when other IES components (i.e., Secondary Energy Source, Balance of Plant, etc.) would otherwise have to operate flexibly. This provision for storage avoids high-amplitude power ramps in these components thereby limiting thermal and mechanical stresses to their internals and providing for extended service life. This report describes a dynamic model that has been developed for an electrochemical battery. The lithium-ion (Li-ion) cell was selected as representative technology. The battery model was developed in the Dymola simulation environment and meets the requirements of the ecosystem plug-and-play library. The model accurately describes the electric dynamic response of a Li-ion battery for an imposed charging/discharging power profile. The corresponding physical limitations related to over-power scenarios, and the impact of the residual state of charge are accounted for in the model. A literature review of the major degradation processes affecting Li-ion batteries was performed. Given the purposes of the CTD-IES project, the progressive fade of the installed capacity, the reduction of the round-trip efficiency, and the limits on the number of charging/discharging cycles are aspects that need to be taken into account in techno-economic analyses. The modeling of these degradation phenomena becomes crucial when predictions over long time horizons (capacity expansion) are made. For each one of these phenomena, a brief description is given, and some figures to be implemented in the HERON optimization algorithm are presented.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Novel In-situ Patterning Technique to Fabricate Single Quantum Dots for Quantum Photonics

Photon sources able to emit single or entangled photon pairs are key components in quantum information systems. Semiconductor quantum dots (QDs) are promising candidates due to their high efficiencies and ease of integration with other photonic or electronic components. State-of-the-art QDs, however, are limited to certain emission wavelengths and specific applications due to material choice constraints and their randomness in shape/size. This project is focused on developing a novel in-situ patterning technique to realize QDs with a broad emission range, shape/size control and the ability to emit single/entangled photons. Our approach has two key elements: (1) In-situ patterning via arsenic-induced nanovoid etching on antimonide surfaces and (2) In-filling of nanovoids to form QDs. By closely controlling the experimental conditions, it is shown that this technique can be used to realize III-V QDs in As 2 - etched nanovoids on a GaSb surface. The exposure to As 2 in terms of substrate temperature, time and flux is found to have a significant impact on the process variables such as nanovoid depth, QD dimensions etc. An in-depth analysis of the etch mechanism reveals that by controlling the As 2 exposure, uniform 3-dimensional nanostructures with varying areal densities can be obtained without an in-filling step. Preliminary optical characterization of these nanostructures shows that these QDs may be relevant for realizing emitters in the telecom wavelength range.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Miscalculation, Misperception and Risk Reduction

In the current security environment, the most likely wars for which the US and its allies must be prepared are wars against nuclear-armed states. Such wars bring unique risks of both vertical and horizontal escalation. Some are “accepted risks;” for example, the US may choose to escalate a conflict to clarify its commitment to an issue and defend its interest. Other are “unacceptable risks;” especially, the risk of miscalculation by the U.S. or an adversary. The focus here is on this latter category. Miscalculation is an error of judgment—the failure to accurately assess a situation. Miscalculation can result from hidden, incomplete, or ambiguous information, or from inaccurate processing of available information because of bias, overconfidence, denial, delusion, etc. Miscalculation is related to misperception. For some, they are synonymous. This paper characterizes the risks of miscalculation and introduces a discussion of a risk mitigation strategy.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Silicon-Equivalent Neutron Dose Estimations

Radiation transport calculations are often used to estimate dose or exposure to components and personnel surrounding a radiation source. The sources for these calculations are decaying radionuclides within the various nuclear materials. Under long-term radiation exposure, some components may show signs of material damage such as hardening, cracking, discoloration, etc. resulting from the dose received from nearby radioactive sources. Radiation dose quantities are a useful means to correlate material damage or degradation to radiation interactions. The degradation is often dependent on how incident radiation interacts and deposits energy into the material. This dependence implies that radiation dose should be properly defined for the material effect of interest. Generic dose quantities, such as total energy deposited, may not necessarily correlate well for degradation of any given material.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Validation of the HyRAM+ physics models for use with propane

The Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model Plus (HyRAM+) toolkit combines quantitative risk assessment with simulations of unignited dispersion, ignited turbulent diffusion flames, and indoor accumulation with delayed ignition of fuels. HyRAM+ is differentiated from HyRAM in that it includes models and leak data for other alternate fuels. The models of the physical phenomena need to be validated for each of the fuels in the toolkit. This report shows the validation for propane which is being used as a surrogate for autogas, which is a mixture of propane and butane and used in internal combustion engines in vehicles. For flame length comparisons, five previously published experiments from peer reviewed journals were used to validate our models. The validation looked at flame lengths and flame widths with respect to different leak diameters, mass flow rates, and source pressures. Most of the sources included more than one set of experimental data, which were collected using different methods (CCD cameras, IR visualization etc.). In general, HyRAM+ overpredicts the flame lengths by around 65%. For heat and radiation models, we compared the heat flux and radiation data reported from two different sources to the values calculated by HyRAM+. For higher mass flow rates, the HyRAM+ calculated flame length results gave a better estimate of what is found in the experiments (65% error), but a higher error (85%) is observed between the HyRAM+ calculated lengths and the experimental flame lengthsfor lower mass flows. Some differences can be attributed to outdoor environmental effects (i.e. wind speed) and uncertainties in jet flame shapes. The propane flame trajectory is predicted for a high Reynolds number case with Re = 12,500 and a low Reynolds number case where Re = 2,000. The Re=12,500 case which is momentum dominated matches well with the experimental flame trajectory, but the agreement for the bouancy driven low Reynolds number case is not as good. Dispersion modeling for unignited propane was also analyzed. We compared the mole fraction, mixture fraction, mean velocity, concentration half width, and inverse mass concentration over an axial distance from different credible journals to the values calculated by HyRAM+. The results display good agreement but generally, HyRAM+ predicts a wider profile for mole fraction and mixture fraction experiments. Overall, HyRAM+’s results are reasonable for predicting the flame length, heat flux, flame trajectory, and dispersion for propane and can be used in risk analyses

08 HYDROGEN↗

Femtosecond Reflectance Spectroscopy for Energetic Material Diagnostics

Understanding the fundamental mechanisms underpinning shock initiation is critical to predicting energetic material (EM) safety and performance. Currently, the timescales and pathways by which shock-excited lattice modes transfer energy into specific chemical bonds remains an open question. Towards understanding these mechanisms, our group has previously measured the vibrational energy transfer (VET) pathways in several energetic thin films using broadband, femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy. However, new technologies are needed to move beyond these thin film surrogates and measure broadband VET pathways in realistic EM morphologies. Herein, we describe a new broadband, femtosecond, attenuated total reflectance spectroscopy apparatus. Performance of the system is benchmarked against published data and the first VET results from a pressed EM pellet are presented. This technology enables fundamental studies of VET dynamics across sample configurations and environments (pressure, temperature, etc .) and supports the potential use of VET studies in the non-destructive surveillance of EM components.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Degradation Studies of Silicone Rubbers in Direct Contact with Corrosive Solids Under Compression

Silicone elastomers are polymer materials widely used within the complex, serving as cushions, adhesives, binders, and potting compounds. Excellent high-temperature resistance combined with low-temperature flexibility, high resistance to chemicals and long-term age-related stability, make silicones first-choice materials in many application areas. However, the siloxane bonds comprising the backbone of silicone elastomers are susceptible to hydrolysis when catalytic amounts of acid or base are present. Hydrolysis is a form of degradation that results in chain-cleavage and rearrangement reactions, which can manifest in changes to the physical response and mechanical properties of the elastomer. This task aims to assess and quantify the extent of degradation and/or corrosion of silicone elastomer materials when placed in direct compressive contact with an Arrhenius base under varying environments (oxidative/nonoxidative, relative humidity, temperature, time, etc.).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Use Machine Learning to Improve Burnup Measurement in Pebble Bed Reactors

Advanced pebble bed reactor (PBR) designs post new challenges in material control and accountancy (MC&A) because the fuel materials, distributed in many discrete pebbles, are continuously circulated through the reactor core and the refueling path compared to the bulk fuel assembly design in conventional reactors, e.g., light water reactors. In pebble bed reactors, there are hundreds of thousands of fuel pebbles in the reactor core during the normal operation, and the burnup of each pebble is measured when ejected from the core. Accurate burnup measurement is an important step in material control and spent fuel disposition. The measurement is usually based on detection of radiation signatures of fission products accumulated in the pebble fuel over irradiation in the core. Previous research has shown that height of photopeaks of fission products, such as 134 Cs, 137 Cs, 154 Eu, etc., can be used independently or in combination to infer or predict the level of burnup in the fuel. However, it remains challenging to measure such complex sources due to self-shielding effects, strong radiation background and intervening materials. Another operational challenge is the required high throughput of pebbles undergoing burnup measurement, which necessitates limited measurement time and thus impacts quality of measured gamma-ray spectra. Hence, advanced spectral analysis methods are needed to analyze the noisy gamma spectra and predict the burnup values.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Mini minutes for a mini CSEWG Virtual mini-CSEWG Meeting 16-19 August, 2021

This meeting is a collaboration meeting of the Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG), a collaboration including members from various DOE NNSA and non-NNSA laboratories as well as several university groups that support these laboratory missions. The focus of this meeting will be preparations for the next major release of the ENDF/B nuclear data library. The ENDF/B library is the main neutronics library used in various US neutronics codes such as MCNP and SCALE for advance reactor work, safeguards, stockpile stewardship, etc.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Performance Improvements for the Griffin Transport Solvers

Griffin is a Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment based reactor multiphysics analysis application jointly developed by Idaho National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory. Griffin includes a variety of deterministic radiation transport solvers for fixed source, k-eigenvalue, adjoint, and subcritical multiplication, as well as transient solvers for point-kinetics, improved quasi-static, and spatial dynamics. A code assessment performed in FY-20 identified two significant issues with the transport solvers in Griffin: first, the primary heterogeneous SN (discrete ordinates) transport solver based on continuous finite element methods required significant mesh refinement and higher memory usage compared to solvers based on the method of characteristic for equivalent accuracy. Second, the homogeneous PN (spherical harmonics expansion) transport solver did not adequately support polynomial refinement, which is a feature usually required for problems with spatial homogenization and pronounced streaming, typical in fast or gas-cooled reactor systems. To address the first issue, the development effort focused on the more promising discontinuous finite element method (DFEM)-based SN transport solver in Griffin. The addition of an asynchronous parallel transport sweeper and coarse mesh finite difference (CMFD) acceleration have rendered a superior heterogeneous SN transport capability for multiphysics problems that requires far less computing resources in terms of both CPU time and memory usage. This is demonstrated with typical thermal- and fast-spectrum reactor benchmark problems, including 2D Transient Reactor Test, 3D Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR), and 2D and 3D Empire microreactor. For the second issue, the development effort focused on a new transport solver based on the hybrid finite element PN method (HFEM-PN), equivalent to the variational nodal method, as well as a new diffusion solver based on HFEM-Diffusion. This solver is intended for homogenized domains with multiphysics coupling (i.e., supports mesh displacement, seamless temperature feedback, etc.). Initial calculations with the HFEM-Diffusion implementation show very good parallel efficiency for the residual evaluations with the 2D ABTR benchmark. A future development effort will be centered on further improvements to the CMFD, HFEM-PN, and DFEM diffusion solvers to ensure Griffin meets performance and software quality assurance requirements for advanced reactor design and analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

C-AAC Occupancy and Transition Out of CMR [Slides]

This in-depth evaluation was performed in order to gather information for a plan and time estimate of C-AAC space cleanout and handover to the CMR facility once programmatic operations are relocated to other facilities. C-AAC space ownership in CMR wings 1, 5, 7, and 9 have been identified down to the Team level (see subsequent slides and other supporting documentation). This plan assumes that C-AAC activities that support Pu sustainment efforts (Wings 1, 5, and 7) are relocated to PF-4 and RLUOB in mid/end FY24 and current projects in Wing 9 are completed by the end of FY24/mid FY25 (cessation of C-AAC programmatic operations in CMR). This plan assumes that no other programmatic activities are initiated in CMR (e.g. MOX fuel rods). Timing and order of cleanout of programmatic laboratory and office spaces in wings 1, 5, and 7 is dependent upon analytical chemistry operations being established and relocated to RLUOB and PF-4. Timing and order of cleanout of programmatic laboratory and office spaces in wing 9 is dependent upon completion of current projects (MR&R, Thermo Fisher drum, etc.). As C-AAC Teams move out of the CMR building and into other facilities, the spaces occupied by those teams are planned to be targeted for in depth cleanout in the order that teams and capabilities are relocated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of Digital Twin Predictive Model for PWR Components: Updates on Multi Times Series Temperature Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Network, DMW Fatigue Tests, System Level Thermal-Mechanical-Stress Analysis

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plant (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years, can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Frequent NDE requirement may lead to frequent shutdown of the NPP. This in turn can lead to power outage and additional NDE-inspection-cost related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing more digital approach such as by using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. Towards this goal Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is working on the development of a DT framework that can be used for real time environmental fatigue prediction of reactor components. The DT framework is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics such as finite element (FE) based modeling tools. Towards this overall goal, following are some of the major contributions made during the FY21: 1) Multiple 82/182 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) specimens (both solid-weld and joint-weld representing the actual reactor multi-metal nozzles) were fatigue tested. The resulting fatigue lives were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. Additionally, the results of 52/152 DMW fatigue specimens (which were recently tested at Republic of Korea under the sponsorship of International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative - INERI program) were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. From the comparison of 82/182 and 52/152 DMW test data with NUREG-6909 best-fit curve, most of the reported test data fall way away from the NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit or mean curve. The NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit curve is the best-fit curve of austenitic stainless steel and due to lack of enough data on Nickel-based welds, this is currently being used for predicting the life of Nickel-alloy-based welded components. However, the above observation may require higher scaling factor (e.g., ASME suggested factor of 20 on cycles rather than the current NUREG-6909 suggested factor of 12 on cycles) for scaling the austenitic-stainless-steel best-fit-curve for estimating the design or safe-life of a welded component. Accordingly, for example, if a DMW component experience a strain amplitude of 0.6% the PWR-water life of the component would be 52 cycles instead of 85 cycles. However, more DMW tests are required to further ascertain the above-mentioned observations. 2) A system level CAD and finite element model were developed which consists of reactor pressure vessel (RPV), part of steam generator (SG), part of pressurizer (PRZ), hot leg (HL), and surge line (SL). This is with detailed nozzle geometry and thermal-mechanical material properties of different metals to simulate realistic thermal-mechanical stress under connected system global thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. 3) Different system level heat transfer analyses were performed with estimation of relevant heat transfer coefficients. The resulting data were used in subsequent system level thermal-mechanical stress analysis and for generating spatial-temporal training and validation data for a system level digital-twin based temperature predictor. Transient heat transfer analyses were performed considering thermal boundary condition under design-basis (DB) loading and EDF (Électricité de France) data-based grid-load-following (EDF-GLF) loading cycles. 4) System level thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed for identifying damage-prone hotspots and for future extension of the model for cyclic state prediction. From the system-level model simulation under DB loading cycle it is found that HL and the SL nozzle that connect to the HL can experience significant stress and strain and could be one of the weakest links in the overall reactor coolant system (RCS). 5) An AI/ML based DT model was developed for multi-time-series temperature prediction at any inside/outside thickness locations of PWR pressure boundary components. This is by using Recurrent-neural-network (RNN) and keras machine learning libraries. The RNN model was validated against two laboratory test-based data sets with one obtained through ANL’s in-air fatigue test system and other through PWR-water test loop. The experimentally validated DT model further validated against FE model results to predict thermal scarification related spatialtemporal temperatures at random locations of a component. The well validated DT model was then used for demonstrating spatial-temporal temperature prediction under 100+ years of reactor operation subjected to combined DB, EDF-GLF and randomized grid-load-following (RANDOMGLF) loading Cycles. The expert-elicitation DT model framework was developed assuming field/input/process measurements can be available from a few existing plant sensors and can readily be used by the NPP operators. The above temperature prediction model will feed to the next-step stress analysis model based on which the life of a component can be predicted in realtime, which is one of our future works.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Deconvolution for Aerial Measurements

Avery Guild-Bingham will present these slides during the 9th Annual AMS Technical Exchange meeting (virtual) held on Oct 6-7, 2021. Attendees include Aerial Measuring System staff and partners from US laboratories, as well as Aerial Radiation detection scientists from partner countries such as the UK, Germany, Switzerland, etc. Overall support provided by NA-81, Office of Nuclear Incident Policy and Cooperation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Building an Effective Nuclear Safety Culture [Slides]

A culture is a way of life of a group of people - the behaviors, beliefs, values, and symbols that they accept, generally without thinking about them, and that are passed along by communication and imitation from one generation to the next. We have different cultures between Technical Areas, facilities, divisions, work groups, etc.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗