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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Dedicated beam position monitor pair for model-independent lattice characterization at NSLS-II

This paper reports recent lattice characterization results obtained at the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) storage ring, conducted without reliance on a lattice model. A pair of beam position monitors (BPMs) with bunch-by-bunch (B×B) resolution, were recently installed in a section of the storage ring free of magnetic fields. The new BPM pair measured the beam, or bunch’s transverse Poincar´e map precisely after the beam was excited. Linear one-turn-matrices (OTM) were then derived, and from these, the 4-dimensional coupled Twiss parameters were extracted at the locations of the BPM pair. By normalizing beam oscillation amplitudes with the Twiss parameters, the global action-variables were obtained. These action-variables facilitated the measurement of the local Twiss parameters observed by other BPMs independent on lattice model. This method is general, and particularly useful in certain scenarios such as a round beam mode in a diffraction-limited light source ring. We applied it to assess both weakly and strongly coupled lattices at the NSLS-II ring. Through analysis of the strongly coupled lattice, the quadrupole tilt errors were estimated to be less than 400 µrad. Utilizing the BPMs’ B×B resolution, for the first time we observed the variations of the linear lattice along a long bunch-train.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

XMM-NEWTON SLEW SURVEY OBSERVATIONS OF THE GRAVITATIONAL WAVE EVENT GW150914

The detection of the first gravitational wave (GW) transient GW150914 prompted an extensive campaign of follow-up observations at all wavelengths. Although no dedicated XMM-Newton observations have been performed, the satellite passed through the GW150914 error region during normal operations. Here we report the analysis of the data taken during these satellite slews performed two hours and two weeks after the GW event. Our data cover 1.1 and 4.8 deg{sup 2} of the final GW localization region. No X-ray counterpart to GW150914 is found down to a sensitivity of 6 × 10{sup −13} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} in the 0.2–2 keV band. Nevertheless, these observations show the great potential of XMM-Newton slew observations for searching for the electromagnetic counterparts of GW events. A series of adjacent slews performed in response to a GW trigger would take ≲1.5 days to cover most of the typical GW credible region. We discuss this scenario and its prospects for detecting the X-ray counterpart of future GW detections.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tools to perform data reduction of time-of-flight data taken on BL4A (MagRef)—a Jupyter notebook approach

A collection of modules or tools to produce reflectivity profiles from data acquired with unpolarized and polarized neutron beams using the BL4A (MagRef) instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source. The Jupyter notebook approach offers transparency to the user on what is done with the data, and once the event mode data are stored as NumPy binary files empowers the user to perform the steps from their own laptop without the need for Mantid. The notebook offers two options for background subtraction, applies corrections for the wavelength dependence of the polarizer and flipper efficiencies, accounts for Zeeman energy splitting of the spin-flip channels, Qz-bins the data along contours of constant Qz, propagates errors and writes results in text format suitable for analysis with tools such as GenX.

Fitzsimmons, Michael [Oak Ridge Associated Univ., ↗
DOE OSTI2013

A Monte Carlo Analysis of Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant Process Load Cell Data

As uranium enrichment plants increase in number, capacity, and types of separative technology deployed (e.g., gas centrifuge, laser, etc.), more automated safeguards measures are needed to enable the IAEA to maintain safeguards effectiveness in a fiscally constrained environment. Monitoring load cell data can significantly increase the IAEA s ability to efficiently achieve the fundamental safeguards objective of confirming operations as declared (i.e., no undeclared activities), but care must be taken to fully protect the operator s proprietary and classified information related to operations. Staff at ORNL, LANL, JRC/ISPRA, and University of Glasgow are investigating monitoring the process load cells at feed and withdrawal (F/W) stations to improve international safeguards at enrichment plants. A key question that must be resolved is what is the necessary frequency of recording data from the process F/W stations? Several studies have analyzed data collected at a fixed frequency. This paper contributes to load cell process monitoring research by presenting an analysis of Monte Carlo simulations to determine the expected errors caused by low frequency sampling and its impact on material balance calculations.

Garner, James R↗
DOE OSTI2014

Comprehensive ecosystem model-experiment synthesis using multiple datasets at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment experiments: model performance and compensating biases

Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments provide a remarkable wealth of data to test the sensitivities of terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs). In this study, a broad set of 11 TEMs were compared to 22 years of data from two contrasting FACE experiments in temperate forests of the south eastern US the evergreen Duke Forest and the deciduous Oak Ridge forest. We evaluated the models' ability to reproduce observed net primary productivity (NPP), transpiration and Leaf Area index (LAI) in ambient CO2 treatments. Encouragingly, many models simulated annual NPP and transpiration within observed uncertainty. Daily transpiration model errors were often related to errors in leaf area phenology and peak LAI. Our analysis demonstrates that the simulation of LAI often drives the simulation of transpiration and hence there is a need to adopt the most appropriate of hypothesis driven methods to simulate and predict LAI. Of the three competing hypotheses determining peak LAI (1) optimisation to maximise carbon export, (2) increasing SLA with canopy depth and (3) the pipe model the pipe model produced LAI closest to the observations. Modelled phenology was either prescribed or based on broader empirical calibrations to climate. In some cases, simulation accuracy was achieved through compensating biases in component variables. For example, NPP accuracy was sometimes achieved with counter-balancing biases in nitrogen use efficiency and nitrogen uptake. Combined analysis of parallel measurements aides the identification of offsetting biases; without which over-confidence in model abilities to predict ecosystem function may emerge, potentially leading to erroneous predictions of change under future climates.

Walker, Anthony P↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Microlensing Search for Primordial Black Holes in Dark Energy Survey Date

The search for dark matter is currently one of the most exciting fields in astronomy. One possible candidate for dark matter is primordial black holes, formed from density fluctuations at the beginning of the universe. We search for these black holes through microlensing events by creating light curves from stars in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Microlensing occurs when a primordial black hole (lens) passes in front of a background star, briefly brightening the output from that star. This brightening, due to the increase in magnitude, becomes detectable. First, we must cut out galaxies from our sample of stars. We then vary key parameters involved in lensing to create potential light curves, and then compare them to light curves from actual events, as well as calculating errors. We then send off these curves for further analysis to determine if any real events occurred. We plan to create 106 light curves, due to the large amount of parameters being varied. If these primordial black holes are dark matter, we hope to eventually detect multiple events using the light curves we have created.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Airport Delay Prediction with Temporal Fusion Transformers

Since flight delay hurts passengers, airlines, and airports, its prediction becomes crucial for the decision-making of all stakeholders in the aviation industry and thus has been attempted by various previous research. However, previous delay predictions are often categorical and at a highly aggregated level. To improve that, this study proposes to apply the novel Temporal Fusion Transformer model and predict numerical airport arrival delays at quarter hour level for U.S. top 30 airports. Inputs to our model include airport demand and capacity forecasts, historic airport operation efficiency information, airport wind and visibility conditions, as well as en-route weather and traffic conditions. The results show that our model achieves satisfactory performance measured by small prediction errors on the test set. In addition, the interpretability analysis of the model outputs identifies the important input factors for delay prediction.

Liu, Ke [University of California Berkeley]↗
DOE OSTI2018

Voltage Stability Assessment Using Synchronized Phasor Measurements Applied to the Argentine Power System

This paper presents tests of different methods for long term voltage stability analysis based on PMU measurements. In particular, Thevenin Impedance Matching and sensitivity calculation are studied. Simulation are performed in a modified Argentine power system model, to include the main components for studying long term voltage stability. Disconnection of a large Thermal Generating Station causing long-term voltage instability at Gran Buenos Aires Area is studied. It is shown that computing the apparent impedance of Thevenin equivalent at load bus from measurements taken at a single time but at various locations of the transmission corridor produce a significant reduction of the estimation error produce when only local measurements are used. Voltage Stability analysis is performed using a reduced power system model where changing parameters are fully computed through PMU data at each time. Over this reduced power system model, voltage stability index and sensibility calculations are performed.

Gill-Estebez, Pablo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Use of Time Distributions to Predict Operator Procedure Performance in Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework affords software capable of conducting human reliability analysis (HRA) using a dynamic approach built around operating procedures (OPs) from nuclear power plants (NPPs). Previous HUNTER reports document the development of this software tool, the coupling of HUNTER to the simulator code, the collection of operator performance data by using simulators to calibrate HUNTER models, and linking HUNTER to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) software. The present report largely addresses two topics. The first is a new function in HUNTER called the HUNTER Procedure Performance Predictor (P3). HUNTER P3 uses HUNTER’s built in Monte Carlo tools featuring human performance variability to identify potential error traps in procedures. The second topic is time distribution analysis to generate time inputs for dynamic HRA. The current analysis was performed to investigate time distributions for task primitives, which are the minimum task unit of analysis used in dynamic HRA modeling. Using the time distribution data, the elapsed time for human actions in an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario is then investigated. Time data and prediction are essential for modeling procedure performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Framework for a Digital Documented Safety Analysis

This framework is developed to progress the digital implementation of digital tools applied to the DOE authorization process, with future applications to NRC SAR development/review, to accelerate the design and review processes of advanced nuclear reactors. The engineering design and licensing process for nuclear reactors is currently burdened by a document-based approach that leads to duplications and errors due to a lack of traceability among numerous static documents. Changes to design information require labor-intensive manual tracing through these documents, creating a high potential for human error. The adoption of a digital ecosystem, utilizing a digital thread to link various aspects of project design and analysis, promises dynamic documentation generation, automatic updates, and error reduction. Model Based Definition (MBD) and Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) tools are central to this digital transformation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Iso-geometric analysis for neutron diffusion problems

Iso-geometric analysis can be viewed as a generalisation of the finite element method. It permits the exact representation of a wider range of geometries including conic sections. This is possible due to the use of concepts employed in computer-aided design. The underlying mathematical representations from computer-aided design are used to capture both the geometry and approximate the solution. In this paper the neutron diffusion equation is solved using iso-geometric analysis. The practical advantages are highlighted by looking at the problem of a circular fuel pin in a square moderator. For this problem the finite element method requires the geometry to be approximated. This leads to errors in the shape and size of the interface between the fuel and the moderator. In contrast to this iso-geometric analysis allows the interface to be represented exactly. It is found that, due to a cancellation of errors, the finite element method converges more quickly than iso-geometric analysis for this problem. A fuel pin in a vacuum was then considered as this problem is highly sensitive to the leakage across the interface. In this case iso-geometric analysis greatly outperforms the finite element method. Due to the improvement in the representation of the geometry iso-geometric analysis can outperform traditional finite element methods. It is proposed that the use of iso-geometric analysis on neutron transport problems will allow deterministic solutions to be obtained for exact geometries. Something that is only currently possible with Monte Carlo techniques. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Multiscale Approach to High-Resolution Ocean Profile Observations within a 4DVAR Analysis System

Most ocean data assimilation systems are tuned to process and assimilate observations to constrain features on the order of the mesoscale and larger. Typically this involves removal of observations or computing averaged observations. This procedure, while necessary, eliminates many observations from the analysis step and can reduce the overall effectiveness of a particular observing platform. Simply including these observations is not an option as doing so can produce an overdetermined, ill-conditioned problem that is more difficult to solve. An approach, presented here, aims to avoid such issues while at the same time increasing the number of observations within the assimilation. A two-step assimilation procedure with the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) system is adopted. The first step attempts to constrain the large-scale features by assimilating a set of super observations with appropriate background error correlation scales and error variances. The second step then attempts to correct smaller-scale features by assimilating the full observation set with shorter background error correlation scales and appropriate error variances; here the background state is taken as the analysis from the first step. Results using a real high-density observation set from underwater gliders in the region southeast of Iceland, collected during the 2017 Nordic Recognized Environmental Picture (NREP) experiment, will be shown using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model 4DVAR (NCOM-4DVAR).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Formative vs. Summative Dependence in Human Reliability Analysis

Dependence in human reliability analysis (HRA) is the concept that once an initial human error has occurred, subsequent human errors are more likely. The approach almost universally adopted in HRA was first introduced in the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). In THERP, calculated human error probabilities (HEPs) are adjusted for dependence in the final step of quantification. This final adjustment for dependence involves anchoring the HEP to a set of values corresponding to low through complete dependence. The effect is to increase the HEP. In this paper, we propose formative dependence, which occurs at the onset of quantification. We demonstrate that dependence should be considered earlier in the calculation process, because it is not actually necessary to calculate the HEP when it is subsequently overridden by the dependence anchors. By applying dependence first in the calculation, processing steps can be eliminated, making for more efficient analysis.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2016

MO-FG-202-06: Improving the Performance of Gamma Analysis QA with Radiomics- Based Image Analysis

Purpose: The use of gamma analysis for IMRT quality assurance has well-known limitations. Traditionally, a simple thresholding technique is used to evaluated passing criteria. However, like any image the gamma distribution is rich in information which thresholding mostly discards. We therefore propose a novel method of analyzing gamma images that uses quantitative image features borrowed from radiomics, with the goal of improving error detection. Methods: 368 gamma images were generated from 184 clinical IMRT beams. For each beam the dose to a phantom was measured with EPID dosimetry and compared to the TPS dose calculated with and without normally distributed (2mm sigma) errors in MLC positions. The magnitude of 17 intensity histogram and size-zone radiomic features were derived from each image. The features that differed most significantly between image sets were determined with ROC analysis. A linear machine-learning model was trained on these features to classify images as with or without errors on 180 gamma images.The model was then applied to an independent validation set of 188 additional gamma distributions, half with and half without errors. Results: The most significant features for detecting errors were histogram kurtosis (p=0.007) and three size-zone metrics (p<1e-6 for each). The sizezone metrics detected clusters of high gamma-value pixels under mispositioned MLCs. The model applied to the validation set had an AUC of 0.8, compared to 0.56 for traditional gamma analysis with the decision threshold restricted to 98% or less. Conclusion: A radiomics-based image analysis method was developed that is more effective in detecting error than traditional gamma analysis. Though the pilot study here considers only MLC position errors, radiomics-based methods for other error types are being developed, which may provide better error detection and useful information on the source of detected errors. This work was partially supported by a grant from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, grant number R18 HS022244-01.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Incidents at nuclear power plants caused by the human factor

Psychological analysis of the causes of incorrect actions by personnel is discussed as presented in the report 'Methodological guidelines for analyzing the causes of incidents in the operation of nuclear power plants.' The types of incorrect actions and classification of the root causes of errors by personnel are analyzed. Recommendations are made for improvements in the psychological analysis of causes of incorrect actions by personnel.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Robust analysis of trends in noisy tokamak confinement data using geodesic least squares regression

Regression analysis is a very common activity in fusion science for unveiling trends and parametric dependencies, but it can be a difficult matter. We have recently developed the method of geodesic least squares (GLS) regression that is able to handle errors in all variables, is robust against data outliers and uncertainty in the regression model, and can be used with arbitrary distribution models and regression functions. We here report on first results of application of GLS to estimation of the multi-machine scaling law for the energy confinement time in tokamaks, demonstrating improved consistency of the GLS results compared to standard least squares.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Should We Conserve Entropy or Energy when Computing CAPE with Mixed-Phase Precipitation Physics?

Abstract The rapidly increasing resolution of global atmospheric reanalysis and climate model datasets necessitates finding methods for computing convective available potential energy (CAPE) both efficiently and accurately. To this end, this article compares two common methods for computing CAPE which conserve either energy or entropy. Inaccuracies in these computations arise from both physical and numerical errors. For instance, computing CAPE with entropy conserved results in physical errors from nonequilibrium phase transitions but minimizes numerical errors because solutions are analytic at each height. In contrast, computing CAPE with energy conserved avoids these physical errors, but accumulates numerical errors that are grid-resolution-dependent because the numerical integration of a differential equation is required. Analysis of CAPE computed with large databases of soundings from the tropical Amazon and midlatitude storm environments shows that physical errors from the entropy method are typically 1%–3% as large as CAPE, which is comparable to the numerical errors from conserving energy with grid spacing of 25 and 250 m using explicit first-order and second-order integration schemes, respectively. Errors in entropy-based CAPE calculations are also insensitive to vertical grid spacing, in contrast to energy-based calculations whose error strongly scales with the grid spacing. It is shown that entropy-based methods are advantageous when intercomparing datasets with differing vertical resolution because they produce accurate and reasonably fast results that are insensitive to grid resolution, whereas a second-order energy-based method is advantageous when analyzing data with a consistent vertical resolution because of its superior computational efficiency. Significance Statement Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is a measure of instability in the atmosphere that helps forecasters and researchers understand when and where thunderstorms will form. The purpose of this article is to identify the most efficient and accurate methods for computing CAPE. Two methods are considered here, one that relates to the entropy (a measure of thermodynamic disorder) of an air parcel and one that relates to the energy of an air parcel. Results indicate that the entropy method is most accurate and insensitive to the resolution of the data used for the calculation (which can vary considerably), whereas the energy method uses the least computation time.

Peters, John M.↗
DOE OSTI2012

THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT IN THE EXTREME-MASS RATIO INSPIRAL PROBLEM

Measurements of gravitational waves from the inspiral of a stellar-mass compact object into a massive black hole are unique probes to test general relativity (GR) and massive black hole (MBH) properties, as well as the stellar distribution about these holes in galactic nuclei. Current data analysis techniques can provide us with parameter estimation with very narrow errors. However, an extreme-mass ratio inspiral (EMRI) is not a two-body problem, since other stellar bodies orbiting nearby will influence the capture orbit. Any deviation from the isolated inspiral will induce a small, though observable, deviation from the idealized waveform which could be misinterpreted as a failure of GR. Based on conservative analysis of mass segregation in a Milky-Way-like nucleus, we estimate that the possibility that another star has a semimajor axis comparable to that of the EMRI is non-negligible, although probably very small. This star introduces an observable perturbation in the orbit in the case in which we consider only loss of energy via gravitational radiation. When considering the two first-order non-dissipative post-Newtonian contributions (the periapsis shift of the orbit), the evolution of the orbital elements of the EMRI turns out to be chaotic in nature. The implications of this study are twofold. From the one side, the application to testing GR and measuring MBH parameters with the detection of EMRIs in galactic nuclei with a millihertz mission will be even more challenging than believed. From the other side, this behavior could in principle be used as a signature of mass segregation in galactic nuclei.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗