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DOE OSTI2021

Canadian Oil Sands Extraction and Upgrading: A Synthesis of the Data on Energy Consumption, CO 2 Emissions, and Supply Costs

As Canadian crude bitumen production from oil sands has increased in recent decades, the nation’s oil and gas industry has become a significant contributor to national greenhouse gas emissions. Canada has developed carbon emission reduction targets to meet its Nationally Determined Contributions and Mid-Century Strategy goals. A detailed profile of energy consumption pathways in the oil sands industry is necessary to identify potential areas of improvement and to monitor progress toward meeting emissions reduction targets. Much of the existing literature for oil sands modeling provides input assumptions with different technological boundaries. For a set of oil sands extraction and upgrading technologies, this study first reviews the literature and then quantifies energy input requirements, CO 2 emissions, and operating costs for a set of consistent technological boundaries and energy units. Summary results refer to requirements and costs at the production facility, excluding transportation and blending costs. An energy system diagram of oil sands production that matches these boundaries is provided, which can be used by integrated assessment models, oil sands companies, and government ministries to evaluate the present and future energy consumption and emissions pathways of the oil sands industry.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predictive modeling of a subcritical pulverized-coal power plant for optimization: Parameter estimation, validation, and application

As renewable power generation deployment increases, fossil fuel plants are increasingly required to operate more flexibly. Many coal-fired power plants were originally designed to operate at base load and do not operate optimally at partial load. Predictive first-principles plant-wide models can be employed to identify opportunities for flexibility improvements and diagnose low-load operating issues. This paper describes the application of the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems Integrated Platform (IDAES) to model and optimize flexible power plant operations. The key benefits of using IDAES are that it provides an open-source, fully equation-oriented modeling framework for efficient modular model construction, reuse, and customization, together with a mathematical optimization framework leveraging powerful, state-of-the-art solvers. The process systems engineering workflow from predictive process simulation to parameter estimation, model validation, and plant optimization is applicable to a variety of existing and next-generation energy systems as well as other chemical and environmental processes. Here, to demonstrate this capability, a physics-based, steady-state model was developed to improve full- and part-load performance of the Escalante Generating Station, a 245 MWe (net) subcritical pulverized coal-fired power plant owned and operated by Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association. Specifically, sixty-nine model parameters were simultaneously estimated from several months of operating data enabling prediction of flow rates, temperatures, pressures, and steam quality throughout the plant. The validated model was leveraged by Escalante to reduce the minimum operating load from 90 MW to 50 MW by diagnosing a low-load water-hammer issue, enabling coal usage and emissions reductions during periods of low power demand. Additionally, opportunities for heat rate reduction (i.e., efficiency improvement) through a steeper sliding-pressure approach to load-following and optimization of other boiler operating variables were also identified and quantified. For example, a potential efficiency improvement of 0.7 percentage points was observed at half-load operation.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2020

Bias in CMIP6 Models as Compared to Observed Regional Dimming and Brightening

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased considerably over the last century, but climate effects and quantification of the emissions are highly uncertain as one goes back in time. This uncertainty is partly due to a lack of observations in the pre-satellite era, making the observations we do have before 1990 additionally valuable. Aerosols suspended in the atmosphere scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and thereby alter the Earth's surface energy balance. Previous studies show that Earth system models (ESMs) do not adequately represent surface energy fluxes over the historical era. We investigated global and regional aerosol effects over the time period 1961–2014 by looking at surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR). We used observations from ground stations as well as multiple experiments from eight ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6). Our results show that this subset of models reproduces the observed transient SDSR well in Europe but poorly in China. We suggest that this may be attributed to missing emissions of sulfur dioxide in China, sulfur dioxide being a precursor to sulfate, which is a highly reflective aerosol and responsible for more reflective clouds. The emissions of sulfur dioxide used in the models do not show a temporal pattern that could explain observed SDSR evolution over China. The results from various aerosol emission perturbation experiments from DAMIP, RFMIP and AerChemMIP show that only simulations containing anthropogenic aerosol emissions show dimming, even if the dimming is underestimated. Simulated clear-sky and all-sky SDSR do not differ greatly, suggesting that cloud cover changes are not a dominant cause of the biased SDSR evolution in the simulations. Therefore we suggest that the discrepancy between modeled and observed SDSR evolution is partly caused by erroneous aerosol and aerosol precursor emission inventories. This is an important finding as it may help interpret whether ESMs reproduce the historical climate evolution for the right or wrong reason.

surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Analysis of Recuperated Joule-Brayton Pumped Thermal Energy Storage

This article describes a techno-economic model for pumped thermal energy storage systems based on recuperated Joule-Brayton cycles and two-tank liquid storage. Models have been developed for each component, with particular emphasis on the heat exchangers. Economic metrics such as the power and energy capital costs (i.e., per-kW and per-kWh capacity) and levelized cost of storage are evaluated by gathering numerous cost correlations from the literature, thereby enabling estimates of uncertainty. It is found that the use of heat exchangers with effectivenesses up to 0.95 is economically worthwhile, but higher values lead to rapidly escalating component size and system cost. Several hot storage fluids are considered; those operating at the highest temperatures (chloride salts) improve the round-trip efficiency but the benefit is marginal and may not warrant the additional material costs and risk when compared to lower-temperature nitrate salts. Cost-efficiency trade-offs are explored using a multi-objective optimization algorithm, yielding optimal designs with round-trip efficiencies in the range 59-72% and corresponding levelized storage costs of 0.12 0.03 and 0.38 0.10 $/kWhe. Lifetime costs are competitive with lithium-ion batteries for discharging durations greater than 6 h under current scenarios.

Carnot battery↗

DOE OSTI2026

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data↗

NASA NTRS2011

US Clean Energy Sector and the Opportunity for Modeling and Simulation

The following paper sets forth the current understanding of the US clean energy demand and opportunity. As clean energy systems come online and technology is developed, modeling and simulation of these complex energy programs provides an untapped business opportunity. The US Department of Defense provides a great venue for developing new technology in the energy sector because it is demanding lower fuel costs, more energy efficiencies in its buildings and bases, and overall improvements in its carbon footprint. These issues coupled with the security issues faced by foreign dependence on oil will soon bring more clean energy innovations to the forefront (lighter batteries for soldiers, alternative fuel for jets, energy storage systems for ships, etc).

Inge, Carole Cameron↗

DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE-based Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8) for advanced open-source tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling

Tritium management is critical for the safety, sustainability, and economics of fusion energy systems, and advanced and reliable modeling tools help accelerate the development of tritium technologies. This paper presents the Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8), an open-source, MOOSE-based application developed to provide state-of-the-art tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling capabilities. TMAP8 aims to expand the capabilities of previous versions (i.e., TMAP4 and TMAP7) by leveraging modern computational techniques, ensuring high software quality assurance standards (key to building trust), and enabling multispecies, multiscale, and multiphysics simulations for integrated tritium transport modeling in complex geometries. This paper outlines TMAP8’s scope and rigorous development practices, emphasizing its transparency, accessibility, modularity, and reliability. We present the current suite of verification and validation cases based on those from TMAP4, demonstrating TMAP8’s accuracy and reliability against analytical solutions and experimental data. Additionally, the paper showcases TMAP8’s integrated fuel cycle modeling capabilities, highlighting its applicability at various scales and levels. The TMAP8 code and documentation are openly available, promoting collaborative development and widespread adoption within the fusion community. Future work will soon expand TMAP8’s verification and validation suite to include those from TMAP7 and other recent experimental studies for validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of Prototypical District-Scale Models: Preprint

The U.S. has set the climate goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. District-scale solutions, which include scale-specific opportunities for energy and emissions savings, can be investigated and implemented to help accelerate decarbonization and progress toward this goal. However, there is currently a lack of district-scale models of buildings and community energy systems that can be used to evaluate potential district-scale technologies and strategies across a range of representative community types. This initial work aims to define and develop prototype district models that can be adapted to support the planning, design, and operation of buildings and energy systems in districts considering the complexity and interactions of diverse building loads, weather impacts, distributed energy resources (e.g., PV, EV, electric and thermal energy storage), electric and thermal grid systems, and pricing signals. An overall workflow for developing these prototype district models is established. Stakeholders and potential users of the prototype district models provided technical feedback. The specifications of the selected high priority districts were defined and documented in a scorecard format. An example prototype district model was implemented with the URBANoptTM platform workflows. A case study was performed to demonstrate the model application.

district↗

NASA NTRS1984

Comparison of full-scale engine and subscale model performance of a mixed flow exhaust system for an energy efficient engine (E3) propulsion system

A full scale engine test of the NASA/General Electric Company (GE) Energy Efficient Engine (E3) was conducted to demonstrate the E3 engine concept and evaluate its performance. The test program, performed at the GE outdoor engine test facilities in Peebles, OH, included a detailed evaluation of the total pressure and temperature profiles at the exit of the mixed flow exhaust system to determine its mixing effectiveness. Subscale model tests of the same mixed flow exhaust system had been previously conducted at FluiDyne Engineering Corporation in Minneapolis, Minnesota as part of the GE E3 mixer aerodynamic technology development program. The scale model and full scale engine nozzle exit survey data and the calculated mixing effectiveness are compared and discussed. Results indicate the full scale engine mixing effectiveness to be five percent higher than the scale model as a result of a geometric difference and higher turbulence levels in the engne exhaust flowfield.

Kuchar, A. P.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermal Stress Modeling and Analysis of Packed-bed Thermocline Energy Storage Tank for INL Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS)

The Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is a thermal-hydraulic flow loop to support the integration of co-located multiple experimental systems, where a packed-bed thermal energy storage (TES) is installed as a thermal buffer and storage unit for TEDS. The packed-bed TES is adopted in TEDS because of its benefit as a low-cost single-tank storage option compared to the traditional two-tank storage. However, thermal ratcheting is one potential design concern which is caused by the rearrangement of granular filler inside a packed-bed tank during continuous thermal cycling operation of the packed-bed TES tank. If the thermally induced stress exceeds yield strength of the tank wall, it may cause catastrophic consequences like rupture of the thermal storage tank. Thus, it is crucial to understand the phenomenon to ensure the robust operation. Based on the temperature boundary conditions given by transient thermal analyses with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, the thermal ratcheting analysis is then conducted to evaluate the hoop stress and resultant thermal ratcheting potential of the TES tanks with two different modeling approaches: (1) infinite rigidity model and (2) Drucker-Prager (DP) model. The validity of each modeling method was examined by comparing the numerical simulation with the experimental data obtained from the packed-bed TES tank for Solar One Plant and evaluate the thermal ratcheting potential of the TEDS TES tank.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1993

Al-26 production profile and model comparisons in Canyon Diablo

The large preatmospheric size of the Canyon Diablo meteorite, a radius of about 15 m, makes it especially suitable for systematic studies of cosmogenic nuclide production rates of iron objects in a 2 pi geometry. To reconstruct the exposure history of the meteoroid, Heymann et al. investigated several fragments recovered from known geographic locations around the crater for their shock features and cosmogenic nobel gases. They applied the Signer-Nier noble gas production rate model to establish the preatmospheric depth of the specimens in the meteoroid. Cosmic ray exposure ages suggested a multi-episodic irradiation, with 170 or 540 Ma being inferred for most of the samples studied while two anomalous specimens indicated a possible third exposure age at 940 Ma. Be-10 and Cl-36 have been measured in a number of these same samples by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), with use being made of the preatmospheric depths determined in Heymann et al. to construct production profiles. The present study extends the cosmogenic radionuclide data to Al-26 and compares the results with both the production rate model of Reedy and Arnold and production rates determined from the cross sections used by the Reedy-Arnold model (for the major nuclear reactions making Al-26) in combination with differential fluxes calculated using the Los Alamos High Energy Transport (LAHET) Code System. Model calculations for Be-10 and Cl-36 have also been obtained.

Michlovich, E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Off-design performance of molten salt-driven Rankine cycles and its impact on the optimal dispatch of concentrating solar power systems

This paper presents a model for improving off-design performance predictions for molten salt-driven Rankine power cycles, such as in concentrating solar power tower applications. The model predicts cycle off-design performance under various boundary conditions, including molten salt inlet temperature, mass flow rate, and ambient temperature. The model is validated using industry performance data and benchmarked with results from the literature. A complete concentrating solar power plant, inclusive of solar heliostat field and receiver, is then considered, by implementing the Rankine cycle off-design performance results into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model software, which includes a tool that determines optimal power production schedules. The work improves upon the current System Advisor Model by updating off-design performance characteristics. A case study demonstrates the impact of cycle off-design behavior on annual performance for a stand-alone concentrating solar power system and a concentrating solar power-photovoltaic hybrid system. In addition, we demonstrate how cycle off-design performance influences optimal operator dispatch decisions and, thereby, overall system design and economics. We conclude that off-design cycle performance impacts “optimal” sub-system sizing, especially for a concentrating solar power-photovoltaic hybrid configuration in which concentrating solar power must dispatch in conjunction with photovoltaic generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1980

A new semiclassical decoupling scheme for electronic transitions in molecular collisions - Application to vibrational-to-electronic energy transfer

A new semiclassical decoupling scheme (the trajectory-based decoupling scheme) is introduced in a computational study of vibrational-to-electronic energy transfer for a simple model system that simulates collinear atom-diatom collisions. The probability of energy transfer (P) is calculated quasiclassically using the new scheme as well as quantum mechanically as a function of the atomic electronic-energy separation (lambda), with overall good agreement between the two sets of results. Classical mechanics with the new decoupling scheme is found to be capable of predicting resonance behavior whereas an earlier decoupling scheme (the coordinate-based decoupling scheme) failed. Interference effects are not exhibited in P vs lambda results.

Lee, H.-W.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Understanding Electric Vehicle Range and Charging Needs: Interactions Between Ambient Temperature, Commute Patterns, and State-of-Charge Usage

Electric vehicle (EV) performance can vary substantially under real-world operating conditions, particularly due to ambient temperature effects on energy consumption, battery behavior, and thermal management requirements. This study quantifies how weather conditions, daily driving patterns, and State-of-Charge (SOC) usage strategies jointly influence EV driving range, charging frequency, and overall energy efficiency. A detailed and experimentally validated Autonomie vehicle model is developed, integrating a powertrain, a mono-zonal cabin model, and a battery electro-thermal model. Three battery sizes (200-, 300-, and 400-mile homologated ranges) are assessed across five commute profiles (20–200 miles) and six ambient temperatures (−18 °C to 50 °C), including scenarios with and without preconditioning. Results show that extreme temperatures could significantly decrease the maximum achievable range by up to 55% in cold conditions (−18 °C) and 40% in hot conditions (50 °C), relative to moderate conditions. Larger battery packs retain a greater fraction of their nominal range under thermal stress, while smaller packs experience sharper relative penalties due to the higher contribution of thermal loads to total energy demand. The analysis further demonstrates that limiting operation to partial SOC windows (e.g., 80–20%), a common real-world practice, significantly reduces achievable range and increases charging frequency, particularly in cold weather. Thermal preconditioning while plugged in is shown to mitigate these effects for short trips, reducing energy consumption by up to 31% in hot conditions and 7% in cold conditions. The findings demonstrate how climate, SOC usage behavior, and thermal management jointly shape the practical driving capability of EVs, highlighting the importance of efficient thermal management and realistic user charging strategies for ensuring reliable EV operation across diverse climatic scenarios.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2003

Unitized Regenerative Fuel Cell System Dryer-Humidifier Analytical Model Development

A Unitized Regenerative Fuel Cell (URFC) Energy Storage System is being developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. This URFC system is unique in that it uses regenerative gas dryers/humidifiers that are mounted on the surface of the gas storage tanks that act as the radiators for thermal control of the URFC system. As the gas storage tanks cool down during URFC charging the regenerative gas dryers/humidifiers dry the hydrogen and oxygen gases produced by electrolysis. As the gas storage tanks heat up during URFC discharging, the regenerative gas dryers/humidifiers humidify the hydrogen and oxygen gases used by fuel cell. An analytical model was developed to simulate the URFC system's regenerative gas dryers/humidifiers. The model is in the form of an EXCEL@ worksheet that allows the investigation of the regenerative gas dryers/humidifier performance as a function of time and position within the regenerative gas dryers/humidifiers, as well as other key system variables. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) modeling of the regenerative gas dryers/humidifier and gas storage tank wall was also done to analyze spatial temperature distribution within the regenerative gas dryers/humidifiers and the localized tank wall. Test results obtained from the testing of the regenerative gas dryers/humidifiers in a thermal vacuum environment were used to corroborate the analyses.

Burke, Kenneth A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Drilling Optimization System for Improved Overall Rate of Penetration and Reduced Cost Per Foot in Geothermal Drilling

The key to success in geothermal drilling is economic feasibility, and a major cost in the development of geothermal resources is the actual drilling of the wells. In this project, a real-time drilling optimization system for geothermal drilling was developed. The system couples three individual components while drilling. The first component is a drill stem vibration analysis model, the second is Mechanical Specific Energy (MSE) analyses, and the third is a detailed PDC Rate of Penetration (ROP) drill bit model for optimum RPM and WOB combinations. The benefit of the coupled system is that the range of WOB and RPM could be selected to avoid drill stem vibrations. Secondly, MSE is used as an efficiency measure and the detailed PDC drill bit model ensures the drill bit does not endure temperatures that exceed the temperature at which the PDC cutters experience accelerated wear. The new detailed PDC bit model is based on rock/bit interaction that physically tracks the PDC cutter wear flats as the bit drills ahead giving the capability to calculate the temperature being generated underneath the worn cutters to better advise on operational parameters to avoid accelerated cutter wear and failure and to ensure that operational parameters are applied so that overall ROP is maximized. By combining the drill stem vibrations and the detailed PDC bit cutter wear and “safe” non-accelerated cutter wear temperature and optimum ranges of operating parameters, it results in higher ROP and lower cost drilling. Single cutter PDC testing performed in different lithologies at Sandia was utilized to verify the PDC cutter forces and depth of cut for new and worn cutters. Based on single cutter PDC temperature modeling, verification using single cutter data from the testing done by National Oilwell Varco (NOV) was performed. Sandia’s Hard-Rock Drilling Facility (HRDF) was utilized to test different drill bit configurations with different cutter designs and wear status with different induced modes of vibration to obtain the critical bit RPM/WOB ranges resulting in ineffective drilling and low ROP. The collected test data were further used to verify and calibrate the full hole PDC ROP model that was developed based on single cutter interaction data. A full coupled drill stem vibration model was formulated and verified with geothermal field data from the Chocolate Mountain Aerial Gunnery Range (CMAGR). A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed using Tkinter library in the computer programming language Python, which integrates all the developed models in one system. The developed system consists mainly of the PDC ROP model, PDC bit wear model, PDC cutter temperature model, Mechanical Specific Energy (MSE) model, and drillstring vibration model integrated into one system. The developed system can be used for both, post well analysis and real-time optimization using different criteria such as ROP maximization or MSE minimization. The software uses Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) to find optimum values for operational parameters based on last foot drilled while avoiding the drillstring vibration and cutter temperature critical operating parameters.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing the Multiscale Impacts of Implementing Energy-Efficient HVAC Improvements Through Energy Audits and Economic Input–Output Analysis

Abstract Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems are usually an industry’s highest consumer of energy, most of which goes toward space cooling in buildings. Industrial energy-efficiency audits not only benefit manufacturers but also generate significant economic and environmental benefits to localities, states, and the nation. This article analyzes the micro- and macro scale impacts of implementing energy-efficient HVAC systems by integrating the industrial building energy data with the macroeconomic regional economic flow model. Micro-scale data include 10 years of historical energy, cost, and carbon dioxide savings achieved from energy-efficient HVAC implementation offered to manufacturers through industrial energy audits. The data were integrated into the macroeconomic modeling framework to illuminate the cascading regional economic impacts of implementing energy-efficient HVAC recommendations in manufacturing facilities. Results show that if recommendations had been implemented throughout all manufacturers in the region, $656 M energy costs would have been directly saved, 7.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions would have been avoided, and 4387 jobs could have been created, resulting in a total annual economic impact of $899 M stemming from direct, indirect, and induced impacts. The results offer insight into how industrial energy systems can be designed and provide models for how communities can accomplish a net-zero society.

Energy & Fuels↗

NASA NTRS2001

Momentum and Energy Assessments with NASA and Other Model and Data Assimilation Systems

Aspects of the angular momentum cycle, energetics, and related diagnostics from a number of models, including some from the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres, and from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) are examined. Torques that dynamically excite changes in angular momentum, including strong torques at mountains were studied. The measure of how atmospheric mass from a strong weather signal can notably change the angular momentum is studied. For AMIP, there is a spread in the angular momentum amongst models, while the GLA model does reasonably well compared to the other models in the diagnostics examined, namely angular momentum and water vapor. Trends and interannual variability in water vapor over a lengthy period was examined. The role of the diabatic heating components, especially latent heating, in the energy cycle and the terms converting available potential energy to kinetic energy, among other parts of the energy cycle, are studied. Modes of climate of the atmosphere, especially the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, are analyzed as well.

Salstein, David↗