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DOE OSTI2023

ADVANCED TECHNIQUES FOR ENERGY INPUT REDUCTION IN GYPSUM WALLBOARD DRYING

Gypsum has been used for thousands of years in building and construction applications, starting with the pyramids in ancient Egypt, to “Plaster of Paris” in the midcenturies, and to the now-ubiquitous drywall in modern-day houses. Production of gypsum drywall boards takes several steps with high energy and water consumption. The current state of the art in industry is a process that begins by mining gypsum and reducing its particle size by milling. These gypsum particles undergo calcination to convert the gypsum (calcium sulfate dihydrate) into stucco (calcium sulfate hemihydrate). The stucco is mixed with additives and enough water to form a slurry that can be poured onto a conveyor belt and molded into the desired geometry. The stucco reacts with the water, converting back into gypsum. The remaining water is then dried from the board to form the final product. While only ~20 wt. % of water is needed for the conversion of stucco to gypsum, significant excess water is needed to ensure sufficient fluidity of the slurry for processibility. This is due to the low quality of the stucco particles produced in high throughput calcination units, which disintegrate upon mixing with water, thereby reducing the fluidity and processability of the slurry. This project aims to produce high-quality stucco particles by dielectric calcination. In doing so, particle integrity can be maintained through the slurry formulation step, and particle size distribution of the stucco can be adjusted to increase fluidity with less excess water. With less water remaining unreacted in the board, significant energy can be saved in drying the product. The project aims to 1) develop a dielectric calcination method to TRL 3, 2) determine optimal and practical particle size distributions to minimize excess water in the slurry, and 3) reduce the energy consumption of the drying process.

Conforti, Kameron↗

DOE OSTI2022

Interlaboratory Reproducibility of Contour Method Data in a High Strength Aluminum Alloy

The contour method for residual stress measurement has seen significant development, but an experimental reproducibility study utilizing physical samples has not been published. A double-blind reproducibly study is reported, having scope beginning with EDM cutting and ending with residual stress calculation. A reinforced I-beam sample geometry is identified for its unique residual stress profile when extracted from residual stress bearing quenched aluminum bar (7050-T74). Contour measurements are prescribed on a midplane of symmetry with dimensions 24.0 mm by 50.0 mm. Fourteen identically prepared samples are fabricated from a single long bar with well characterized and uniform residual stress. Five samples throughout the bar are identified for planning measurements to validate sample uniformity and overall suitability of the residual stress field. The planning measurements employ a range of techniques: contour method, neutron diffraction, and hole-drilling. Eight samples are distributed to an international group of participants to execute their standard measurement practice. A double-blind process is followed to provide anonymity. Results are provided by eight participants: six being self-similar and two being quite different, the latter set aside as outliers. An average residual stress field is established from non-outlying results and the spatial distribution of reproducibility standard deviation is determined. The average stress field ranges from -60 to 70 MPa and the reproducibility standard deviation averages 8.1 MPa on the measurement plane. The average reproducibility standard deviation is about 3 × larger for points within 1.0 mm of plane boundaries (17.6 MPa) than for the remaining points (6.1 MPa). Reproducibility standard deviation (among different labs) for contour method residual stress measurement is found to be very similar to repeatability standard deviation (in a single lab) reported in prior work. The reproducibility observed here, for the entire measurement process, is also similar to that found in a prior reproducibility study limited to contour method data analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Data and Models [Abstract]

Nuclear data evaluation methods conventionally make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate for minimization of a cost function (even for non-linear models); and that both the model (of, e.g., neutron cross section) and experimental data (including their covariance data) are perfect. These assumptions are inherent to the well-known generalized linear least squares (GLLS) minimization method commonly used for evaluations of resolved resonance region (RRR) neutron cross sections. However, these assumptions are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, non-linear models (e.g. R -matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g. discrepant data sets, discrepancies between the previous evaluation and newly measured data, or imperfect covariance data). We remove the said assumptions in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, and implement it using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Parameters of a new kind are introduced to parameterize inherent imperfections, e.g. , any discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data. These new parameters enable evaluators to quantify their expert judgement about any discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. We demonstrate the framework with an ongoing evaluation of 233 U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII library and transmission data measured by Guber, et al. , and compare the posterior parameters to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling Morphology and Crystallinity Dynamics in Ni x Mn 1– x CO 3 Cathode Precursors through Batch-Mode Coprecipitation

This study delves into the synthesis and control of Ni x Mn 1–x CO 3 , a critical class of Mn-rich, Co-free precursors vital for cathode-oxide materials in energy storage and conversion technologies. Employing batch-mode coprecipitation, we systematically generated samples with varying Ni concentrations (x = 0, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, and 0.9) and conducted a comprehensive analysis of their compositions, crystallinities, transition-metal distributions, and particle morphologies through both experimental and computational methods. A significant variation in particle size and crystallinity was observed, contingent on the Ni content. Further, a pivotal transition emerged at Ni concentrations above x = ~0.5, transforming uniform morphologies, such as spherical, monodisperse, pseudo-single-crystalline particles, into bimodal, polycrystalline structures. Furthermore, the study highlights the role of Ni–ammonia complexes leading to Ni-deficient precipitates and underscores the importance of ammonia concentration in achieving precise Ni content control. This study unveils critical reaction conditions governing Mn-rich precursor properties that are vital for cathode-oxides, emphasizing the need for meticulous synthetic control and offering the potential for practical applications in advanced energy storage and conversion systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Resilient Operating Constraints for Power Distribution Systems under Setpoint Attacks

Integration and operation of distributed generation (DG) and energy storage (ES) in power distribution systems are enabled by communication networks and embedded sensor and control devices that increase the vulnerability of the systems to cyber-threats, broadening the attack surface and making adversary actions more unpredictable. This paper proposes a methodology that uses ellipsoidal approximations to quantify the potential damage caused by successful attacks that affect, directly or indirectly, the desired operation setpoints and may drive the power distribution operation to unsafe states by violating the limits of voltage or line flows. More specifically, a new methodology is introduced to find the optimal non-symmetric operating constraints that can be imposed to each DG and ES in order to guarantee that the power distribution system is resilient to any malicious setpoints. The proposed method takes as inputs the system topology, DG and ES capabilities, and load limits to solve a convex optimization problem formulated using linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) and the power flow equations. The proposed solution is agnostic to the attacker's action or load profile and it does not require any assumption about the location or means of the attack. The numerical results on a test distribution feeder with several DG and ES illustrate how the proposed resilient operating constraints guarantee the security of the power distribution system under setpoint attacks.

Giraldo, Jairo↗

DOE OSTI2022

Curled-Skewed Wakes behind Yawed Wind Turbines Subject to Veered Inflow

This work presents a new engineering analytical model that predicts the effect of both the turbine yaw misalignment and the inflow wind veer on the wake flow distribution downwind of a wind turbine. To consider the veered inflow, two methods were examined. In the first method, the curled shape of the wake due to the yaw offset is initially modelled. The wake shape is then laterally skewed at each height due to the wind veer based on the assumption that the turbine wake is transported downstream by the incoming flow. The second method is a more realistic approach that accounts for the effect of wind veer on the wind velocity direction and the yaw angle seen by the wind turbine. This models the wake region in a local coordinate system defined based on the wind direction at each height. A coordinate transformation is then performed to represent the wake flow distribution in the global coordinate system attached to the ground. The results show that while the two methods provide similar outputs for small variations in the wind direction across the rotor, the difference becomes more evident with an increase in wind veer. High-fidelity simulations for a turbine subject to a neutral atmospheric boundary layer were employed to validate model predictions for different operating conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accelerated Aging of PV Cables - The Development of Methods Towards Combined-Accelerated Stress Testing

PV cables allow the collection and distribution of electricity from modules to the energy grid. Durable cabling allows continuous operation of PV installations. Cables with a life less than that of the modules must be replaced - reducing electricity generation and adding to the system operating expense. We have examined the durability of a variety of representative cable samples using artificial UV weathering (IEC TS 62788-7-2) and combined accelerated stress testing (C-AST). Jackets in this study include PV-rated (polyolefin), building wire (PVC/PA), and multi-conductor (rubber, as in PV trackers), with some examples of black and red cables. Characterizations at read points include appearance (camera and optical microscope), surface roughness (linear profilometry), instrumented indentation, surface morphology (SEM), chemical composition (EDS), thermal decomposition (TGA), phase transition (DSC), crystalline structure (WAXS), and polymer chemical structure (FTIR). Complimentary examinations confirm damage to the external and interior layer(s) of less durable samples, including changes in morphology (e.g., cracking), chemistry (e.g., oxidation), structure, and mechanical performance (e.g., through-thickness modulus and hardness). The results may be generally compared to other examples from the field (PV installations) or after accelerated testing (IEC 61215). The methods in this study are presently being applied in a follow-on C-AST study, incorporating both dynamic and kinematic fixtures.

balance of systems↗

DOE OSTI2022

X-ray fluorescence microscopy methods for biological tissues

Abstract Synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence microscopy is a flexible tool for identifying the distribution of trace elements in biological specimens across a broad range of sample sizes. The technique is not particularly limited by sample type and can be performed on ancient fossils, fixed or fresh tissue specimens, and in some cases even live tissue and live cells can be studied. The technique can also be expanded to provide chemical specificity to elemental maps, either at individual points of interest in a map or across a large field of view. While virtually any sample type can be characterized with X-ray fluorescence microscopy, common biological sample preparation methods (often borrowed from other fields, such as histology) can lead to unforeseen pitfalls, resulting in altered element distributions and concentrations. A general overview of sample preparation and data-acquisition methods for X-ray fluorescence microscopy is presented, along with outlining the general approach for applying this technique to a new field of investigation for prospective new users. Considerations for improving data acquisition and quality are reviewed as well as the effects of sample preparation, with a particular focus on soft tissues. The effects of common sample pretreatment steps as well as the underlying factors that govern which, and to what extent, specific elements are likely to be altered are reviewed along with common artifacts observed in X-ray fluorescence microscopy data.

Pushie, M. Jake (ORCID:0000000174945427)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear Software Validation for 7% Enriched UO 2 Fuel Lattices

This analysis performs validation for the Virtual Environment for Reaction Application’s (VERA’s) neutronics codes MPACT and Shift against measured data from the Seven Percent Critical Experiment (7uPCX) at Sandia National Laboratory. The benchmarking supports the future application of VERA for analysis of high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel in commercial pressurized water reactors (PWRs). VERA demonstrates very good agreement with measured data, and the deterministic code MPACT also agrees very well with higher-fidelity stochastic methods KENO-VI and Shift in both total neutron flux and fission rate distribution comparisons. Despite some significant differences between the 7uPCX and existing commercial PWRs that challenge the neutron cross section data and transport solver methods used by MPACT, all of the results are excellent. The agreement increases the confidence in the applicability and accuracy of VERA for reactor analysis of HALEU fuels in commercial reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2020

A method to fuse multiphysics waveforms and improve predictive explosion detection: theory, experiment and performance

Natural and human-made sources of transient energy often emit multiple geophysical signatures that include mechanical and electromagnetic waveforms. We present a constructive method to fuse and evaluate statistics that we derive from such multiphysics waveforms that improves our capability to detect small, near-ground explosions over similar methods that consume single signature waveforms. Our method advances Fisher's Combined Probability Test (Fisher's Method) to operate under both hypotheses of a binary test on noisy data and provide researchers with the density functions required to forecast the ability of Fisher's Method to screen fused explosion signatures from noise. We apply this method against 12 d, multisignature explosion and noise records to show (1) that a fused multiphysics waveform statistic that combines radio, acoustic and seismic waveform data can identify explosions roughly 0.8 magnitude units lower than an acoustic emission, STA/LTA detector for the same detection probability and (2) that we can quantitatively predict how this fused, multiphysics statistic performs with Fisher's Method. Our work thereby offers a baseline method for predictive waveform fusion that supports multiphenomenological explosion monitoring (multiPEM) and is applicable to any binary testing problem in observational geophysics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Extended range X-ray pair distribution functions

Here we describe a dual detector system for high-energy X-ray, simultaneous, small and wide-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS and WAXS), designed to extract extended-range pair distribution functions (ER-PDF) for disordered materials. The hardware and software provides continuous reciprocal space coverage over atomic to nanometer length-scales. Details of the varying resolution, splicing of data and normalization on an absolute scale are outlined. In addition, the combination of SAXS and WAXS theory is considered with a view to enabling a direct Fourier transformation of the structure factor spanning multiple length-scales into real space. Important distinctions between the ER-PDF and the pair distance distribution function (PDDF) representations are demonstrated. It is shown that when the SAXS intensity in the structure factor, S(Q), is similar to the WAXS intensity, the contributions to the ER-PDF are minimal. However, when the SAXS S(Q) intensities are substantially stronger than the WAXS, the ER-PDF can provide important structural information on the local, intermediate and nanometer length-scales. Notably, the ER-PDF method provides direct information on particle sizes and their density distributions, overcoming the limitations of PDDF analysis for densely packed systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond traditional diagnostics: Identifying active galactic nuclei using spectral energy distribution fitting in DESI data

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) are typically identified through their distinctive X-ray or radio emissions, mid-infrared (MIR) colors, or emission lines. However, each method captures different subsets of AGN due to signal-to-noise (S/N) limitations, redshift coverage, and extinction effects, underscoring the necessity for a multiwavelength approach for comprehensive AGN samples. This study explores the effectiveness of spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting as a robust method for AGN identification. Using CIGALE optical-MIR SED fits on DESI Early Data Release galaxies, we compare SED-based AGN selection (AGNFRAC ≥ 0.1) with traditional methods including BPT diagrams, WISE colors, X-ray, and radio diagnostics. The SED fitting identifies ∼70% of narrow- and broad-line AGN and 87% of WISE-selected AGN. Incorporating high S/N WISE photometry reduces star-forming galaxy contamination from 62% to 15%. Initially, ∼50% of SED-AGN candidates are undetected by standard methods, but additional diagnostics classify ∼85% of these sources, revealing low-ionization nuclear emission-line regions and retired galaxies potentially representing evolved systems with weak AGN activity. Further spectroscopic and multiwavelength analysis will be essential to determine the true AGN nature of these sources. SED fitting provides complementary AGN identification, unifying multiwavelength AGN selections. This approach enables more complete – albeit somewhat contaminated – AGN samples, which are essential for upcoming large-scale surveys where spectroscopic diagnostics may be limited.

Seyfert↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distributed PV Hosting Capacity Evaluation Considering Equitable PV Accommodation: Preprint

In distribution systems, distributed photovoltaic (DPV) hosting capacity is widely used by system operators to evaluate how much DPV the distribution networks can accommodate without violating operational constraints. With the proliferation of DPV deployment, if managed properly, it offers a great opportunity to mitigate the persistent energy inequity issue in electric grid. Otherwise, energy inequity can be exacerbated with unequal DPV access when hosting capacity improvement plans ignore the equity factor. To consider energy equity in distribution network planning for enhancing DPV accommodation, the hosting capacity evaluation should be improved to consider equity constraints endogenously. In this paper, a DPV hosting capacity evaluation method is proposed considering equitable DPV access among sub-regions of a distribution feeder partitioned by social-economic indicators such as the income levels. The results demonstrate that considering equity in DPV hosting capacity evaluation can provide valuable reference in the equitable energy transition. This work provides a valuable guidance for future distribution network upgrade planning for equitable DPV deployment.

distributed PV↗

DOE OSTI2022

The relationship between grain size distribution and ductile to brittle transition temperature in FeCrAl alloys

A FeCrAl (Fe12Cr6Al2Mo) alloy was prepared by two methods, (a) traditional wrought and (b) powder metallurgy (PM). Further, both alloys exhibited the same average grain size (~40 um), but the PM alloy displayed a wider grain size distribution. Charpy impact testing showed that the ductile to brittle transition temperature width is dependent on the grain size distribution width.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated steady-state electrostatic particle-in-cell simulation of Langmuir probes

First-principles particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation is a powerful tool for understanding plasma behavior, but this power often comes at great computational expense. Artificially reducing the ion/electron mass ratio is a time-honored practice to reduce simulation costs. Usually, this is a severe approximation. However, for steady-state collisionless, electrostatic (Vlasov–Poisson) systems, the solution with reduced mass ratio can be scaled to the solution for the real mass ratio, with no approximation. This “scaled mass” method, which works with already-existing PIC codes, can reduce the computation time for a large class of electrostatic PIC simulations by the square root of the mass ratio. The particle distributions of the resulting steady state must be trivially rescaled to yield the true distributions, but the self-consistent electrostatic field is independent of the mass ratio. This method is equivalent to “numerical timestepping,” an approach that evolves electron and ion populations with different time steps. Numerical timestepping can be viewed as a special case of the speed-limited PIC (SLPIC) method, which is not restricted to steady-state phenomena. Although the scaled-mass approach is simplest, numerical timestepping and SLPIC more easily generalize to include other effects, such as collisions. The equivalence of these new approaches is demonstrated by applying them to simulate a cylindrical Langmuir probe in electron–argon plasma, speeding up simulation by two orders of magnitude. Methods such as SLPIC can therefore play an invaluable role in interpreting probe measurements by including geometric effects, collisions, secondary emission, and non-Maxwellian distributions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic multi-period optimal dispatch of energy storage in unbalanced distribution feeders

This report presents a convex, multi-period, AC-feasible Optimal Power Flow (OPF) framework that robustly dispatches flexible demand-side resources in unbalanced distribution feeders against uncertainty in very-short timescale solar Photo-Voltaic (PV) forecasts. This is valuable for power systems with significant behind-the-meter solar PV generation as their operation is affected by uncertainty from forecasts of demand and solar PV generation. The aim of this work is then to ensure the feasibility and reliability of distribution system operation under high solar PV penetration. We develop and present a novel, robust OPF formulation that accounts for both the nonlinear power flow constraints and the uncertainty in forecasts. This is achieved by linearizing an optimal trajectory and using first-order methods to systematically tighten voltage bounds. Case studies on a realistic distribution feeder shows the effectiveness of a receding-horizon implementation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Spatial Asymmetries in Teleconnected Extreme Temperatures

Abstract Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn complicated nonlinear relationships from large datasets under limited parametric assumptions. By definition, the number of occurrences of extreme events is small, which limits the ability of the data-hungry, nonparametric neural network to describe rare events. Inspired by recent extreme cold winter weather events in North America caused by atmospheric blocking, we examine several probabilistic generative models for the entire multivariate probability distribution of daily boreal winter surface air temperature. We propose metrics to measure spatial asymmetries, such as long-range anticorrelated patterns that commonly appear in temperature fields during blocking events. Compared to vine copulas, the statistical standard for multivariate copula modeling, deep learning methods show improved ability to reproduce complicated asymmetries in the spatial distribution of ERA5 temperature reanalysis, including the spatial extent of in-sample extreme events.

Krock, Mitchell L.↗