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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian inference of anisotropic 2D small-angle scattering from sparse measurement

Here, we present a Bayesian inference framework for reconstructing anisotropic two-dimensional small-angle scattering (2D SAS) patterns from sparse, noisy, or partially missing data. The method combines a symmetry-aware angular basis with radial Gaussian process priors to enable accurate, training-free interpolation and denoising. Computational benchmarks demonstrate reliable recovery of both isotropic and high-order anisotropic features under severe data reduction. Experimental validations on stretched polymers, sheared wormlike micelles, and carbon fibers show improved fidelity and resolution compared to raw measurements, achieving comparable accuracy with up to 50-fold fewer detected neutrons. This approach enables quantitative structural analysis under low-flux, time-limited, or single-shot conditions, extending the applicability of 2D SAS techniques to compact neutron sources and mechanically driven soft matter systems undergoing transient structural changes.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2023

A species’ response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic modeling of soft x-ray emissivity for magnetic island analysis in LTX-β

We present a synthetic soft x-ray (SXR) forward-modeling framework that characterizes the emissivity structure of rotating magnetic islands in the Lithium Tokamak eXperiment-β across space and time. Magnetic islands associated with tearing modes produce modulations in line-integrated SXR brightness. Traditional tomographic methods struggle to resolve these structures in devices with limited sightlines, resulting in an under-determined inversion problem, or otherwise necessitate equilibrium reconstruction data, preventing their use in active control. Our approach removes this challenge by combining a fully three-dimensional ray-tracing model with a time-dependent emissivity prescription of a $m/n$ = 2/1 magnetic island. The model is validated through helical island geometry, rotation measured by magnetic diagnostics, and equilibrium constraints from PSI-Tri reconstructions. Synthetic brightness signals are generated for each photodiode sightline from a modeled emissivity profile and directly compared with experimental data from a tangential midplane SXR array. By fitting the synthetic diagnostic output to the observed brightness across time, we simultaneously infer key geometric parameters-such as island radial location, island width, and rotation frequency-without requiring full tomographic reconstruction, all with an average absolute deviation of less than 3%. This work demonstrates that forward modeling with a single tangential array can extract key island parameters in a spherical tokamak, providing a computationally efficient alternative to conventional SXR tomography and providing a pathway toward real-time magnetic-island characterization in future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS) – III. Physical properties and elemental abundances of Lyman-limit systems at z < 1

ABSTRACT We present a systematic investigation of physical conditions and elemental abundances in four optically thick Lyman-limit systems (LLSs) at z = 0.36–0.6 discovered within the Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS). Because intervening LLSs at z < 1 suppress far-UV (ultraviolet) light from background QSOs, an unbiased search of these absorbers requires a near-UV-selected QSO sample, as achieved by CUBS. CUBS LLSs exhibit multicomponent kinematic structure and a complex mix of multiphase gas, with associated metal transitions from multiple ionization states such as C ii, C iii, N iii, Mg ii, Si ii, Si iii, O ii, O iii, O vi, and Fe ii absorption that span several hundred km s−1 in line-of-sight velocity. Specifically, higher column density components (log N(H i)/cm−2≳ 16) in all four absorbers comprise dynamically cool gas with $\langle T \rangle =(2\pm 1) \times 10^4\,$K and modest non-thermal broadening of $\langle b_\mathrm{nt} \rangle =5\pm 3\,$km s−1. The high quality of the QSO absorption spectra allows us to infer the physical conditions of the gas, using a detailed ionization modelling that takes into account the resolved component structures of H i and metal transitions. The range of inferred gas densities indicates that these absorbers consist of spatially compact clouds with a median line-of-sight thickness of $160^{+140}_{-50}$ pc. While obtaining robust metallicity constraints for the low density, highly ionized phase remains challenging due to the uncertain $N\mathrm{(H\, {\small I})}$, we demonstrate that the cool-phase gas in LLSs has a median metallicity of $\mathrm{[\alpha /H]_{1/2}}=-0.7^{+0.1}_{-0.2}$, with a 16–84 percentile range of [α/H] = (−1.3, −0.1). Furthermore, the wide range of inferred elemental abundance ratios ([C/α], [N/α], and [Fe/α]) indicate a diversity of chemical enrichment histories. Combining the absorption data with deep galaxy survey data characterizing the galaxy environment of these absorbers, we discuss the physical connection between star-forming regions in galaxies and diffuse gas associated with optically thick absorption systems in the z < 1 circumgalactic medium.

Zahedy, Fakhri S. (ORCID:0000000178692551)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance Results for Sensor Assignment Problem as Solved on a Multi-Node Cluster

An earlier report described a procedure for optimal sensor set selection and its implementation on a computational cluster. This new and innovative capability was developed to facilitate a reduction in operations staffing levels to improve plant economics. By automating surveillance and maintenance tasks through early detection of degrading sensors and equipment, staff can be more efficiently deployed. The method uses automated reasoning and domain knowledge in the form of the conservation equations to infer from plant measurements the state of equipment health. Inclusion of domain knowledge addresses the problem that exists with pure data-driven methods that there are no rigorous guidelines for determining what constitutes an adequate sensor set. Formalizing the procedure for sensor set selection as we have done results in a more reliable and explainable diagnosis of plant equipment health. Importantly, from the standpoint of the plant owner, personnel are provided with an early and explicit diagnosis of an equipment problem. That in principle automates the process and eliminates having to send personnel into the plant to find the cause as typically occurs when a data-driven method detects an anomaly. In this report we describe first results obtained using a computational cluster to solve the sensor set selection problem as framed above. The case described addresses the problem of equipment health monitoring in the high-pressure (HP) feedwater system of a pressurized light water reactor as seen through the eyes of our collaborating utility partner. Maintenance of this system can amount to millions of dollars per year if equipment health issues go undiagnosed and lead to loss of function. On examining the potential that is inherent in the installed sensor set for diagnosing equipment health degradation, it was found that greater fault resolution capability can be achieved using a sensor set that is 20 percent fewer in number. The take-away is that compared to the installed sensor set there exists a more strategic assignment of sensors that will furnish better health monitoring capability and with fewer sensors. Where the problem defies solution by manual inspection, as is the case here, one can be found by an algorithm. The solution was obtained in four hours using 30 computational cores. The HP feedwater problem as posed above illustrates the added value of approaching the sensor selection problem as one amenable to algorithmic solution. This problem is of interest to advanced reactor designers and to utilities that are setting up remote monitoring and diagnostic centers.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Building Adapter: Automatic Mapping of Commercial Buildings for Scalable Building Analytics

This project creates new solutions for the manual metadata mapping problem: the costly process of creating a match between a building’s sensor data streams and the inputs of a building analytics engine. This goal is achieved by creating and improving techniques for metadata inference: automatically constructing new contextual information for sensing and control points based on the sensor point names and the raw time series values. The objective is to enable vendors to apply building analytics to 90% of buildings with no manual mapping, and to 10% of buildings with a 90% reduction in manual mapping. These targets are set for all types of metadata required by current analytics engines, including type, location, equipment type, and other relationships. The outcome of this project is a suite of solutions to the manual mapping problem collectively called the Building Adapter that allows vendors to apply analytics engines to new buildings at a significantly reduced cost.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards Quantitative Inference of Nanoscale Defects in Irradiated Metals and Alloys

Quantifying the population of nanoscale defects that are formed in metals and alloys exposed to extreme radiation environments remains a pressing challenge in materials science. These defects both fundamentally alter material properties and seed long-timescale performance degradation, which often limits the lifespan of engineering systems. Unlike ceramic and semiconducting materials, these defects in metals and alloys are not spectroscopically active, forcing characterization to rely on indirect measurements from which the distribution of nanoscale defects may be inferred. In this mini-review, different experimental methodologies which have been employed for defect inference are highlighted to capture the current state of the art. Future directions in this area are proposed, which, by combining data streams from multiple and complementary characterization methods in concert with multi-scale modeling and simulation, will enable the ultimate goal of quantifying the full spectrum of defects in irradiated metals and alloys.

Hirst, Charles A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress on the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB): A new DNI computation

This study introduces a new technique to compute direct normal irradiance (DNI) for improving the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). A finite-surface integration algorithm is developed to compute solar radiation in differential solid angles and efficiently infer its contribution to a surface perpendicular to the solar direction. A lookup table of cloud bi-directional transmittance distribution function (BTDF) is developed by use of the discrete ordinates radiative transfer (DISORT) model for possible solar and observing directions and various cloud optical and microphysical properties. In each solar incident direction, DNI is given by the cloud BTDFs from approximately 200 differential solid angles. The simulated DNI is calibrated and evaluated using surface observations at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Energy Research Laboratory (SRRL) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatially Aware Linear Transformer (SAL-T) for Particle Jet Tagging

Transformers are very effective in capturing both global and local correlations within high-energy particle collisions, but they present deployment challenges in high-data-throughput environments, such as the CERN LHC. The quadratic complexity of transformer models demands substantial resources and increases latency during inference. In order to address these issues, we introduce the Spatially Aware Linear Transformer (SAL-T), a physics-inspired enhancement of the linformer architecture that maintains linear attention. Our method incorporates spatially aware partitioning of particles based on kinematic features, thereby computing attention between regions of physical significance. Additionally, we employ convolutional layers to capture local correlations, informed by insights from jet physics. In addition to outperforming the standard linformer in jet classification tasks, SAL-T also achieves classification results comparable to full-attention transformers, while using considerably fewer resources with lower latency during inference. Experiments on a generic point cloud classification dataset (ModelNet10) further confirm this trend. Our code is available at https://github.com/aaronw5/SAL-T4HEP.

Wang, Aaron [Illinois U., Chicago] (ORCID:00000003↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series: Supporting Data

This dataset consists of soil temperature time series that were used to estimate soil thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty trough the probabilistic modelling approach developed and presented in the article named "Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series" and published in Earth Surface Dynamics. There are two compressed (.zip) files that contains synthetic (Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip) and field (Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip) data. There is one MATLAB file that requires MATLAB to execute but any text editor can open it. The Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip file includes 5 comma-delimited data files (.csv) each of which contains soil temperature time series generated through forward modeling (i.e., heat-conduction process in a heterogeneous medium using an explicit finite difference method) to mimic various types of temperature gradients, trend and fluctuations. These synthetic soil temperatures were used to investigate the impact of different environmental conditions on the uncertainty of thermal diffusivity estimates. The Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip file contains 28 comma-delimited data files (.csv) out of which (a) 27 files includes soil temperature time series recorded from 27 temperature probes located in a site along Teller Road about 40 km northwest of Nome, Alaska (64.72°N, 165.94°W), (b) one includes the name and coordinates of the 27 probes. These field soil temperatures were used to infer soil thermal diffusivity at numerous locations and depths in a discontinuous permafrost environment, and to evaluate the links between the estimated soil thermal diffusivity values and soil physical properties. The comma-delimited data files (.csv) of the synthetic and field soil temperature time series includes date and time (UTC) in the first column and soil temperature from 5 cm below the ground surface to 1.05 m depth (with 5 or 10 cm spacing between sensors) in the other columns. The measurements were acquired every 15 minutes. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗
DOE OSTI2026

CaloTrilogy: Toward a Breakthrough in One-Step, End-to-End, Physics-Guided Shower Generation for Modern Calorimeters

High-precision calorimeter simulation at current and future colliders imposes rapidly growing computational demands, motivating the development of machine-learning surrogates for traditional Monte Carlo tools such as Geant4. Flow matching and diffusion-based generative models have become leading approaches for high-dimensional fast simulation because of their sample quality, but typically require ${\cal O}(100)$ function evaluations at inference and often rely on auxiliary networks to constrain global observables, compromising streamlined end-to-end generation. We introduce a unified framework that improves the balance between speed, shower quality, and physics fidelity. The method combines: (i) an average velocity field integrator that enables sampling in one or a few evaluations; (ii) a learned generative prior in shower space, constructed from data rather than random noise; and (iii) physics-guided loss terms that impose inductive biases on key observables during training. These elements are training time regularizers, preserving end-to-end inference with no additional cost. With only one or a few evaluation steps, the model achieves shower quality competitive with state-of-the-art flow and diffusion approaches, tested on several public high granularity calorimeter datasets. The results demonstrate inter-layer shower structure consistent with the underlying physics, providing a strong candidate for future fast simulation workflows.

Jiang, Cheng [Edinburgh U.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying reliable surrogate models in scientific applications. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) frameworks employ ensembles or Bayesian methods, which can incur substantial computational costs during both training and inference. Here, we propose a lightweight predictive UQ method tailored for Deep operator networks (DeepONets) that also generalizes to other operator networks. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that the framework’s uncertainty estimates are unbiased and provide accurate out-of-distribution uncertainty predictions with a sufficiently large training dataset. Our framework provides fast inference and uncertainty estimates that can efficiently drive outer-loop analyses that would be prohibitively expensive with conventional solvers. We demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used in the context of Bayesian optimization and active learning problems to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures. In the active learning setup, we extend the framework to Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) and describe a generalized method for other operator networks. To enable real-time deployment, we introduce an inference strategy based on precomputed trunk outputs and a sparse placement matrix, reducing evaluation time by more than a factor of five. Our method provides a practical route to uncertainty-aware operator learning in time-sensitive settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Jensen–Shannon divergence based novel loss functions for Bayesian neural networks

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are state-of-the-art machine learning methods that can naturally regularize and systematically quantify uncertainties using their stochastic parameters. Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence-based variational inference used in BNNs suffer from unstable optimization and challenges in approximating light-tailed posteriors due to the unbounded nature of the KL divergence. To resolve these issues, we formulate a novel loss function for BNNs based on a new modification to the generalized Jensen–Shannon (JS) divergence, which is bounded. In addition, we propose a Geometric JS divergence-based loss, which is computationally efficient since it can be evaluated analytically. We found that the JS divergence-based variational inference is intractable, and hence employed a constrained optimization framework to formulate these losses. Our theoretical analysis and empirical experiments on multiple regression and classification data sets suggest that the proposed losses perform better than the KL divergence-based loss, especially when the data sets are noisy or biased. Specifically, there are approximately 5% and 8% improvements in accuracy for a noise-added CIFAR-10 dataset and a regression dataset, respectively. There is about 13% reduction in false negative predictions of a biased histopathology dataset. Additionally, we quantify and compare the uncertainty metrics for the regression and classification tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interpreting and reporting 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronologic data

The 40Ar/39Ar dating method is among the most versatile of geochronometers, having the potential to date a broad variety of K-bearing materials spanning from the time of Earth’s formation into the historical realm. Measurements using modern noble-gas mass spectrometers are now producing 40Ar/39Ar dates with analytical uncertainties of ~1%, thereby providing precise time constraints for a wide range of geologic and extraterrestrial processes. Analyses of increasingly smaller subsamples have revealed age dispersion in many materials, including some minerals used as neutron fluence monitors. Accordingly, interpretive strategies are evolving to address observed dispersion in dates from a single sample. Moreover, inferring a geologically meaningful “age” from a measured “date” or set of dates is dependent on the geological problem being addressed and the salient assumptions associated with each set of data. We highlight requirements for collateral information that will better constrain the interpretation of 40Ar/39Ar data sets, including those associated with single-crystal fusion analyses, incremental heating experiments, and in situ analyses of microsampled domains. To ensure the utility and viability of published results, we emphasize previous recommendations for reporting 40Ar/39Ar data and the related essential metadata, with the amendment that data conform to evolving standards of being findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) by both humans and computers. Our examples provide guidance for the presentation and interpretation of 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dates to maximize their interdisciplinary usage, reproducibility, and longevity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A physics-constrained neural ordinary differential equations approach for robust learning of stiff chemical kinetics

The high computational cost associated with solving for detailed chemistry poses a significant challenge for predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of turbulent reacting flows. While deep learning techniques have been explored to develop faster surrogate models, they often fail to integrate reliably with CFD solvers. This instability arises because traditional deep learning approaches optimize for training error without ensuring compatibility with ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers, resulting in accumulation of errors over time. Recently, neuralODE (NODE) based approaches have been shown to be a promising technique to emulate and accelerate detailed chemistry computations. Here, in the present work, we extend this NODE framework for stiff chemical kinetics by incorporating mass conservation constraints directly into the loss function during training. This ensures that the total mass as well as the individual elemental species masses are conserved in an a-posteriori manner. Proof-of-concept studies are performed with the novel physics-constrained NODE (PC-NODE) approach for homogeneous autoignition of hydrogen-air mixture over a range of composition and thermodynamic conditions. It is demonstrated that the PC-NODE framework not only improves the physical consistency of the resulting data-driven model with respect to mass conservation criteria, but also improves training efficiency. PC-NODE is shown to achieve 2–100× speedup relative to the hydrogen-air detailed chemical mechanism depending on the type of the ODE solver (implicit or explicit) used during autoregressive inference tests. Lastly, a-posteriori studies are performed wherein the trained PC-NODE model is coupled with a CFD solver. It is shown that higher accuracy is achieved with PC-NODE relative to the purely data-driven NODE approach. Moreover, PC-NODE also exhibits robustness and generalizability to unseen initial conditions from within (interpolative capability) as well as outside (extrapolative capability) the training regime.

computational combustion↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing an Evolutionary Baseline Model for Humans: Jointly Inferring Purifying Selection with Population History

Building evolutionarily appropriate baseline models for natural populations is not only important for answering fundamental questions in population genetics—including quantifying the relative contributions of adaptive versus nonadaptive processes—but also essential for identifying candidate loci experiencing relatively rare and episodic forms of selection (e.g., positive or balancing selection). Here, a baseline model was developed for a human population of West African ancestry, the Yoruba, comprising processes constantly operating on the genome (i.e., purifying and background selection, population size changes, recombination rate heterogeneity, and gene conversion). Specifically, to perform joint inference of selective effects with demography, an approximate Bayesian approach was employed that utilizes the decay of background selection effects around functional elements, taking into account genomic architecture. This approach inferred a recent 6-fold population growth together with a distribution of fitness effects that is skewed towards effectively neutral mutations. Importantly, these results further suggest that, although strong and/or frequent recurrent positive selection is inconsistent with observed data, weak to moderate positive selection is consistent but unidentifiable if rare.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗