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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Disentangling the Planet from the Star in Late-Type M Dwarfs: A Case Study of TRAPPIST-1g

The atmospheres of late M stars represent a significant challenge in the characterization of any transiting exoplanets because of the presence of strong molecular features in the stellar atmosphere. TRAPPIST-1 is an ultracool dwarf, host to seven transiting planets, and contains its own molecular signatures that can potentially be imprinted on planetary transit lightcurves as a result of inhomogeneities in the occulted stellar photosphere. We present a case study on TRAPPIST-1g, the largest planet in the system, using a new observation together with previous data, to disentangle the atmospheric transmission of the planet from that of the star. We use the out-of-transit stellar spectra to reconstruct the stellar flux on the basis of one, two, and three temperature components. We find that TRAPPIST-1 is a 0.08 M {sub *}, 0.117 R {sub *}, M8V star with a photospheric effective temperature of 2400 K, with ∼35% 3000 K spot coverage and a very small fraction, <3%, of ∼5800 K hot spot. We calculate a planetary radius for TRAPPIST-1g to be R {sub p} = 1.124 R {sub ⊕}with a planetary density of ρ {sub p} = 0.8214 ρ {sub ⊕}. On the basis of the stellar reconstruction, there are 11 plausible scenarios for the combined stellar photosphere and planet transit geometry; in our analysis, we are able to rule out eight of the 11 scenarios. Using planetary models, we evaluate the remaining scenarios with respect to the transmission spectrum of TRAPPIST-1g. We conclude that the planetary transmission spectrum is likely not contaminated by any stellar spectral features and are able to rule out a clear solar H{sub 2}/He-dominated atmosphere at greater than 3σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

H- and Dissociation in Ultra-hot Jupiters: A Retrieval Case Study of WASP-18b

Atmospheres of a number of ultra-hot Jupiters (UHJs) with temperatures ≳2000 K have been observed recently. Many of these planets show largely featureless thermal spectra in the near-infrared observed with the HST WFC3 spectrograph (1.1–1.7 μm) even though this spectral range contains strong H{sub 2}O opacity. Recent works have proposed the possibility of H- opacity masking the H{sub 2}O feature and/or thermal dissociation of H{sub 2}O causing its apparent depletion at the high temperatures of UHJs. In this work, we test these hypotheses using observations of the exoplanet WASP-18b as a case study. We report detailed atmospheric retrievals of the planet using the HyDRA retrieval code, extended to include the effects of H- opacity and thermal dissociation. We report constraints on the H{sub 2}O, CO, and H- abundances as well as the pressure–temperature profile of the dayside atmosphere for retrievals with and without H-/dissociation for each data set. We find that the H{sub 2}O and H- abundances are relatively unconstrained given the featureless WFC3 spectra. We do not conclusively detect H- in the planet, contrary to previous studies that used equilibrium models to infer its presence. The constraint on the CO abundance depends on the combination of WFC3 and Spitzer data, ranging from solar to super-solar CO values. We additionally see signs of a thermal inversion from two of the data sets. Our study demonstrates the potential of atmospheric retrievals of UHJs, including the effects of H- and thermal dissociation of molecules.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical Packing in the Habitable Zone: The Case of Beta CVn

Uncovering the occurrence rate of terrestrial planets within the habitable zone (HZ) of their host stars has been a particular focus of exoplanetary science in recent years. The statistics of these occurrence rates have largely been derived from transiting planet discoveries, and have uncovered numerous HZ planets in compact systems around M-dwarf host stars. Here we explore the width of the HZ as a function of spectral type, and the dynamical constraints on the number of stable orbits within the HZ for a given star. We show that, although the Hill radius for a given planetary mass increases with larger semimajor axis, the width of the HZ for earlier-type stars allows for more terrestrial planets in the HZ than late-type stars. In general, dynamical constraints allow ∼6 HZ Earth-mass planets for stellar masses ≳0.7M {sub ⊙}, depending on the presence of farther out giant planets. As an example, we consider the case of Beta CVn, a nearby bright solar-type star. We present 20 yr of radial velocities (RV) from the Keck/High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer (HIRES) and Automated Planet Finder (APF) instruments and conduct an injection-recovery analysis of planetary signatures in the data. Our analysis of these RV data rule out planets more massive than Saturn within 10 au of the star. These system properties are used to calculate the potential dynamical packing of terrestrial planets in the HZ and show that such nearby stellar targets could be particularly lucrative for HZ planet detection by direct imaging exoplanet missions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical Instabilities in Systems of Multiple Short-period Planets Are Likely Driven by Secular Chaos: A Case Study of Kepler-102

We investigated the dynamical stability of high-multiplicity Kepler and K2 planetary systems. Our numerical simulations find instabilities in ∼20% of the cases on a wide range of timescales (up to 5 × 10{sup 9} orbits) and over an unexpectedly wide range of initial dynamical spacings. To identify the triggers of long-term instability in multiplanet systems, we investigated in detail the five-planet Kepler-102 system. Despite having several near-resonant period ratios, we find that mean-motion resonances are unlikely to directly cause instability for plausible planet masses in this system. Instead, we find strong evidence that slow inward transfer of angular momentum deficit (AMD) via secular chaos excites the eccentricity of the innermost planet, Kepler-102 b, eventually leading to planet–planet collisions in ∼80% of Kepler-102 simulations. Kepler-102 b likely needs a mass ≳0.1 M {sub ⊕}, hence a bulk density exceeding about half Earth’s, in order to avoid dynamical instability. To investigate the role of secular chaos in our wider set of simulations, we characterize each planetary system’s AMD evolution with a “spectral fraction” calculated from the power spectrum of short integrations (∼5 × 10{sup 6} orbits). We find that small spectral fractions (≲0.01) are strongly associated with dynamical stability on long timescales (5 × 10{sup 9} orbits) and that the median time to instability decreases with increasing spectral fraction. Our results support the hypothesis that secular chaos is the driver of instabilities in many nonresonant multiplanet systems and also demonstrate that the spectral analysis method is an efficient numerical tool to diagnose long-term (in)stability of multiplanet systems from short simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

EXPRES. II. Searching for Planets around Active Stars: A Case Study of HD 101501

By controlling instrumental errors to below 10 cm s{sup −1}, the EXtreme PREcision Spectrograph (EXPRES) allows for a more insightful study of photospheric velocities that can mask weak Keplerian signals. Gaussian processes (GP) have become a standard tool for modeling correlated noise in radial velocity data sets. While GPs are constrained and motivated by physical properties of the star, in some cases they are still flexible enough to absorb unresolved Keplerian signals. We apply GP regression to EXPRES radial velocity measurements of the 3.5 Gyr old chromospherically active Sun-like star, HD 101501. We obtain tight constraints on the stellar rotation period and the evolution of spot distributions using 28 seasons of ground-based photometry, as well as recent Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite data. Light-curve inversion was carried out on both photometry data sets to reveal the spot distribution and spot evolution timescales on the star. We find that the >5 m s{sup −1} rms radial velocity variations in HD 101501 are well modeled with a GP stellar activity model without planets, yielding a residual rms scatter of 45 cm s{sup −1}. We carry out simulations, injecting and recovering signals with the GP framework, to demonstrate that high-cadence observations are required to use GPs most efficiently to detect low-mass planets around active stars like HD 101501. Sparse sampling prevents GPs from learning the correlated noise structure and can allow it to absorb prospective Keplerian signals. We quantify the moderate to high-cadence monitoring that provides the necessary information to disentangle photospheric features using GPs and to detect planets around active stars.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combining Astrometry and Elemental Abundances: The Case of the Candidate Pre-Gaia Halo Moving Groups G03-37, G18-39, and G21-22

While most moving groups are young and nearby, a small number have been identified in the Galactic halo. Understanding the origin and evolution of these groups is an important piece of reconstructing the formation history of the halo. Here we report on our analysis of three putative halo moving groups: G03-37, G18-39, and G21-22. Based on Gaia EDR3 data, the stars associated with each group show some scatter in velocity (e.g., Toomre diagram) and integrals of motion (energy, angular momentum) spaces, counter to expectations of moving-group stars. We choose the best candidate of the three groups, G21-22, for follow-up chemical analysis based on high-resolution spectroscopy of six presumptive members. Using a new Python code that uses a Bayesian method to self-consistently propagate uncertainties from stellar atmosphere solutions in calculating individual abundances and spectral synthesis, we derive the abundances of α- (Mg, Si, Ca, Ti), Fe-peak (Cr, Sc, Mn, Fe, Ni), odd-Z (Na, Al, V), and neutron-capture (Ba, Eu) elements for each star. We find that the G21-22 stars are not chemically homogeneous. Based on the kinematic analysis for all three groups and the chemical analysis for G21-22, we conclude the three are not genuine moving groups. The case for G21-22 demonstrates the benefit of combining kinematic and chemical information in identifying conatal populations when either alone may be insufficient. Comparing the integrals of motion and velocities of the six G21-22 stars with those of known structures in the halo, we tentatively associate them with the Gaia-Enceladus accretion event.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Challenges Ahead for Multimessenger Analyses of Gravitational Waves and Kilonova: A Case Study on GW190425

In recent years, there have been significant advances in multimessenger astronomy due to the discovery of the first, and so far only confirmed, gravitational wave event with a simultaneous electromagnetic (EM) counterpart, as well as improvements in numerical simulations, gravitational wave (GW) detectors, and transient astronomy. This has led to the exciting possibility of performing joint analyses of the GW and EM data, providing additional constraints on fundamental properties of the binary progenitor and merger remnant. Here, in this work, we present a new Bayesian framework that allows inference of these properties, while taking into account the systematic modeling uncertainties that arise when mapping from GW binary progenitor properties to photometric light curves. We extend the relative binning method presented in Zackay et al. to include extrinsic GW parameters for fast analysis of the GW signal. The focus of our EM framework is on light curves arising from r-process nucleosynthesis in the ejected material during and after merger, the so-called kilonova, and particularly on black hole–neutron star systems. As a case study, we examine the recent detection of GW190425, where the primary object is consistent with being either a black hole or a neutron star. We show quantitatively how improved mapping between binary progenitor and outflow properties, and/or an increase in EM data quantity and quality are required in order to break degeneracies in the fundamental source parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Validation of Multiple Related Data Sets—Case Study Using Interstellar Boundary Explorer Satellite Data

Abstract Space scientists often face the question of whether data collected by different instruments are measurements of the same source population. This paper proposes a statistical validation method for evaluating the agreement between such related data sets. It offers a detailed case study focused on validating a new data set from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission, which serves as a practical how-to guide for similar analyses. Since 2008, the IBEX satellite has been gathering data on heliospheric energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) while being exposed to various sources of background noise, such as cosmic rays and solar energetic particles. The IBEX mission initially released only a qualified triple-coincidence (qABC) data product, which was designed to provide observations of ENAs free of background contamination. Further measurements revealed that the qABC data were in fact susceptible to contamination, having relatively low ENA counts and high background rates. To mitigate this issue, the mission team recently considered releasing a certain qualified double-coincidence (qBC) data product, which has roughly twice the detection rate of the qABC data product. This paper presents a simulation-based validation of the new qBC data product against the already-released qABC data product. The results show that the qBCs can plausibly be said to be measuring the same source population as the qABCs up to an average absolute deviation of 3.6%. Visual diagnostics provide additional confirmation of source rate coherence across data products. The framework introduced here is general and can be applied to other validation problems both within and outside the field of space physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multimodality in the Search for New Physics in Pulsar Timing Data and the Case of Kination-amplified Gravitational-wave Background from Inflation

We investigate the kination-amplified inflationary gravitational-wave background (GWB) interpretation of the signal recently reported by various pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments. Kination is a post-inflationary phase in the expansion history dominated by the kinetic energy of some scalar field, characterized by a stiff equation of state w = 1. Within the inflationary GWB model, we identify two modes that can fit the current data sets (NANOGrav and EPTA) with equal likelihood: the kination-amplification (KA) mode and the ordinary, no-kination-amplification (no-KA) mode. The multimodality of the likelihood motivates a Bayesian analysis with nested sampling. We analyze the free spectra of current PTA data and mock free spectra constructed with higher signal-to-noise ratios using nested sampling. The analysis of the mock spectrum designed to be consistent with the best fit to the NANOGrav 15 yr (NG15) data successfully reveals the expected bimodal posterior for the first time while excluding the reheating mode that appears in the fit to the current NG15 data, making a case for our correct and comprehensive treatment of potential multimodal posteriors arising from future PTA data sets. The resultant Bayes factor is $\mathcal{B}$ $\equiv$ Z no–KA /Z KA = 2.9 ± 1.9, indicating comparable statistical significance between the two modes. Given the theoretical model-building challenges of producing highly blue-tilted primordial tensor spectra, the KA mode has the advantage of requiring less blue primordial spectra, compared with the no-KA mode. The synergy between future cosmic microwave background polarization, pulsar timing, and laser interferometer measurements of gravitational waves will help resolve the ambiguity implied by the multimodal posterior in PTA-only searches.

Cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2023

How an Autonomous Offshore Power System Can Transform the Ocean Economy - A Hypothetical Case Study Utilizing an Autonomous Offshore Power System in Northern Lights Carbon Capture and Storage Project

An Autonomous Offshore Power System (AOPS) provides in-situ power, energy storage, real-time data and communications support, asset management, and other capabilities at sea. It has applications for all offshore industries: energy, defense and security, aquaculture, science and research, and communications. Furthermore, this paper highlights how an AOPS can reduce cost, complexity, and carbon-intensity for existing offshore operations and enable new capabilities for offshore industry leaders. This new AOPS technology has two primary advantages. First, it unlocks the autonomous, electric future of the ocean economy via ‘local’ power generation and energy storage, in addition to real-time connection to the data cloud. Second, it helps enable a material change in the global energy mix through cost-effective, reliable generation and storage technology for use cases including mobile/static data-gathering and reporting systems, operating equipment, and charging networks for uncrewed surface vessels. AOPS technology will help transform the ocean economy, and thus has implications for offshore industry leaders as they push to reduce costs today and make an autonomous and decarbonized future possible.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Iterative and Self-Consistent Estimation of Degradation and Soiling Loss in PV Systems - A Case Study

In many parts of the world, soiling is a significant loss mechanism for PV energy production. Methods for accurately quantifying historical and current soiling losses are needed. Furthermore, state-of-the-art methods to estimate degradation rates based on production data do not handle soiling in a satisfactory manner. In order to accurately estimate either of these quantities, it is in many cases helpful to consider their combined effect on PV system performance. In this work we make use of the Combined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) algorithm, which iteratively decomposes time series of daily normalized energy yield into four components: a soiling ratio, a degradation trend, seasonal variations, and noise. We demonstrate the use of the model on field performance data from a utility-scale power plant in a high-soiling environment in the Middle East. We apply the algorithm to the temperature-corrected performance index of the DC power on inverter level, quantifying how soiling varies over time and through the plant. The irradiation-weighted average soiling loss in this plant is 2.3 %, with a median soiling rate of -0.086 %/day. Between the inverters in the site in study, estimated degradation rates range between -0.86 %/year and -0.15 %/year, with a mean rate of -0.48 %/year.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Adrian, Melissa [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗
DOE OSTI2024

Case Study: Leveraging GenAI to Build AI-based Surrogates and Regressors for Modeling Radio Frequency Heating in Fusion Energy Science

This work presents a detailed case study on using Generative AI (GenAI) to develop AI surrogates for simulation models in fusion energy research. The scope includes the methodology, implementation, and results of using GenAI to assist in model development and optimization, comparing these results with previous manually developed models.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of long-range-transported mineral dust on summertime convective cloud and precipitation: a case study over the Taiwan region

As one of the most abundant atmospheric aerosols and effective ice nuclei, mineral dust affects clouds and precipitation in the Earth system. Here numerical experiments are carried out to investigate the impacts of dust aerosols on summertime convective clouds and precipitation over the mountainous region of Taiwan by acting as ice-nucleating particles. We run the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with the Morrison two-moment and spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) schemes at 3 km resolution, using dust number concentrations from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem-APM). The case study indicates that the long-range-transported mineral dust, with relatively low number concentrations, can notably affect the properties of convective clouds (ice and liquid water contents, cloud top height, and cloud coverage) and precipitation (spatial pattern and intensity). The effects of dust are evident during strong convective periods, with significantly increased ice water contents in the mixed-phase regime via the enhanced heterogeneous freezing. With both the Morrison and SBM schemes, we see the invigoration effects of dust aerosols on the convective intensity through enhanced condensation and deposition latent heating. The low-altitude dust particles are uplifted to the freezing level by updrafts, which, in turn, enhance the convective cloud development through immersion freezing and convective invigoration. Compared to the Morrison scheme, the SBM scheme predicts more realistic precipitation and different invigoration effects of dust. The differences are partially attributed to the saturation adjustment approach utilized in the bulk scheme, which leads to a stronger enhancement of condensation at midlatitudes to low altitudes and a weaker deposition increase at the upper level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding aerosol–cloud interactions using a single-column model for a cold-air outbreak case during the ACTIVATE campaign

Marine boundary layer clouds play a critical role in Earth's energy balance. Their microphysical and radiative properties are highly impacted by ambient aerosols and dynamic forcings. In this study, we evaluate the representation of these clouds and related aerosol–cloud interaction processes in the single-column version of the E3SM climate model (SCM) against field measurements collected during the NASA ACTIVATE campaign over the western North Atlantic, as well as intercompare results with high-resolution process level models. We show that E3SM SCM reproduces the macrophysical properties of post-frontal boundary layer clouds in a cold-air outbreak (CAO) case well. However, it generates fewer but larger cloud droplets compared to aircraft measurements. Further sensitivity tests show that the underestimation of both aerosol number concentration and vertical velocity variance contributes to this bias. Aerosol–cloud interactions are examined by perturbing prescribed aerosol properties in E3SM SCM with fixed dynamics. Higher aerosol number concentration or hygroscopicity leads to more numerous but smaller cloud droplets, resulting in a stronger cooling via shortwave cloud forcing. This apparent Twomey effect is consistent with prior climate model studies. The cloud liquid water path shows a weakly positive relation with cloud droplet number concentration due to precipitation suppression. This weak aerosol effect on cloud macrophysics may be attributed to the dominant impact of strong dynamical forcing associated with the CAO. Our findings indicate that the SCM framework is a key tool to bridge the gap between climate models, process level models, and field observations to facilitate process level understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High sensitivity of simulated fog properties to parameterized aerosol activation in case studies from ParisFog

Aerosols influence fog properties such as visibility and lifetime by affecting fog droplet number concentrations (N d ). Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often represent aerosol–fog interactions using highly simplified approaches. Incorporating prognostic size-resolved aerosol microphysics from climate models could allow them to simulate N d and aerosol–fog interactions without incurring excessive computational expense. However, microphysics code designed for coarse spatial resolution may struggle with sub-kilometer-scale grid spacings. Here, we test the ability of the UK Met Office Unified Model to simulate aerosol and fog properties during case studies from the ParisFog field campaign in 2011. We examine the sensitivity of fog properties to variations in N d caused by modifications to simulated aerosol activation. Our model, with a 500 m horizontal resolution and interactive aerosol and cloud microphysics, significantly underpredicts N d , although it only slightly underestimates the cloud condensation nuclei concentration. With an updated version of the Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (2000) activation scheme, we produce N d that are more consistent with those predicted by a cloud parcel model under fog-like conditions. We activate droplets only by adiabatic cooling. We incorporate more realistic hygroscopicities for sulfate and organic aerosols and explore the sensitivity of simulated N d to unresolved updrafts. We find that both N d and simulated fog liquid water content are very sensitive to the updated activation scheme but remain less affected by the update to hygroscopicities. Our improvements offer insights into the physical processes regulating N d in stable conditions, potentially laying foundations for improved operational fog forecasts that incorporate interactive aerosol simulations or aerosol climatologies.

Ghosh, Pratapaditya [Carnegie Mellon University, P↗
DOE OSTI2019

A simplified parameterization of isoprene-epoxydiol-derived secondary organic aerosol (IEPOX-SOA) for global chemistry and climate models: a case study with GEOS-Chem v11-02-rc

Secondary organic aerosol derived from isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX-SOA) is thought to contribute the dominant fraction of total isoprene SOA, but the current volatility-based lumped SOA parameterizations are not appropriate to represent the reactive uptake of IEPOX onto acidified aerosols. A full explicit modeling of this chemistry is however computationally expensive owing to the many species and reactions tracked, which makes it difficult to include it in chemistry–climate models for long-term studies. Here we present three simplified parameterizations (version 1.0) for IEPOX-SOA simulation, based on an approximate analytical/fitting solution of the IEPOX-SOA yield and formation timescale. The yield and timescale can then be directly calculated using the global model fields of oxidants, NO, aerosol pH and other key properties, and dry deposition rates. The advantage of the proposed parameterizations is that they do not require the simulation of the intermediates while retaining the key physicochemical dependencies. We have implemented the new parameterizations into the GEOS-Chem v11-02-rc chemical transport model, which has two empirical treatments for isoprene SOA (the volatility-basis-set, VBS, approach and a fixed 3% yield parameterization), and compared all of them to the case with detailed fully explicit chemistry. The best parameterization (PAR3) captures the global tropospheric burden of IEPOX-SOA and its spatiotemporal distribution ( R 2 =0.94 ) vs. those simulated by the full chemistry, while being more computationally efficient ( ~5 times faster), and accurately captures the response to changes in NO x and SO 2 emissions. On the other hand, the constant 3&thinsp;% yield that is now the default in GEOS-Chem deviates strongly ( R 2 =0.66 ), as does the VBS ( R 2 =0.47 , 49% underestimation), with neither parameterization capturing the response to emission changes. With the advent of new mass spectrometry instrumentation, many detailed SOA mechanisms are being developed, which will challenge global and especially climate models with their computational cost. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other SOA pathways, which can allow including accurate SOA simulations in climate and global modeling studies in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A parallel workflow implementation for PEST version 13.6 in high-performance computing for WRF-Hydro version 5.0: a case study over the midwestern United States

The Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological (WRF-Hydro) system is a state-of-the-art numerical model that models the entire hydrological cycle based on physical principles. As with other hydrological models, WRF-Hydro parameterizes many physical processes. Hence, WRF-Hydro needs to be calibrated to optimize its output with respect to observations for the application region. When applied to a relatively large domain, both WRF-Hydro simulations and calibrations require intensive computing resources and are best performed on multimode, multicore high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Typically, each physics-based model requires a calibration process that works specifically with that model and is not transferrable to a different process or model. The parameter estimation tool (PEST) is a flexible and generic calibration tool that can be used in principle to calibrate any of these models. In its existing configuration, however, PEST is not designed to work on the current generation of massively parallel HPC clusters. To address this issue, we ported the parallel PEST to HPCs and adapted it to work with WRF-Hydro. The porting involved writing scripts to modify the workflow for different workload managers and job schedulers, as well as to connect the parallel PEST to WRF-Hydro. To test the operational feasibility and the computational benefits of this first-of-its-kind HPC-enabled parallel PEST, we developed a case study using a flood in the midwestern United States in 2013. Results on a problem involving the calibration of 22 parameters show that on the same computing resources used for parallel WRF-Hydro, the HPC-enabled parallel PEST can speed up the calibration process by a factor of up to 15 compared with commonly used PEST in sequential mode. The speedup factor is expected to be greater with a larger calibration problem (e.g., more parameters to be calibrated or a larger size of study area).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗