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Measuring uncertainty by extracting fuzzy rules using rough sets and extracting fuzzy rules under uncertainty and measuring definability using rough sets

Computers are not designed to handle terms where uncertainty is present. To deal with uncertainty, techniques other than classical logic must be developed. This paper examines the concepts of statistical analysis, the Dempster-Shafer theory, rough set theory, and fuzzy set theory to solve this problem. The fundamentals of these theories are combined to provide the possible optimal solution. By incorporating principles from these theories, a decision-making process may be simulated by extracting two sets of fuzzy rules: certain rules and possible rules. From these rules a corresponding measure of how much we believe these rules is constructed. From this, the idea of how much a fuzzy diagnosis is definable in terms of its fuzzy attributes is studied.

Worm, Jeffrey A.↗

Biophysical information in asymmetric and symmetric diurnal bidirectional canopy reflectance

The authors present a theory for partitioning the information content in diurnal bidirectional reflectance measurements in order to detect differences potentially related to biophysical variables. The theory, which divides the canopy reflectance into asymmetric and symmetric functions of solar azimuth angle, attributes asymmetric variation to diurnal changes in the canopy biphysical properties. The symmetric function is attributed to the effects of sunlight interacting with a hypothetical average canopy which would display the average diurnal properties of the actual canopy. The authors analyzed radiometer data collected diurnally in the Thematic Mapper wavelength bands from two walnut canopies that received differing irrigation treatments. The reflectance of the canopies varied with sun and view angles and across seven bands in the visible, near-infrared, and middle infrared wavelength regions. Although one of the canopies was permanently water stressed and the other was stressed in mid-afternoon each day, no water stress signature was unambiguously evident in the reflectance data.

Vanderbilt, Vern C.↗

Estimation of crack closure stresses for in situ toughened silicon nitride with 8 wt pct scandia

An 8-wt pct-scandia silicon nitride with an elongated grain structure was fabricated. The material exhibited high fracture toughness and a rising R-curve as measured by the indentation strength technique. The 'toughening' exponent m was found to be m about 0.1. The high fracture toughness and R-curve behavior was attributed mainly to bridging of the crack faces by the elongated grains. The crack closure (bridging) stress distribution in the wake region of the crack tip was estimated as a function of crack size from the R-curve data, with an arbitrarily assumed distribution function.

Choi, Sung R.↗

Micro and Macro Segregation in Alloys Solidifying with Equiaxed Morphology

To understand macro segregation formation in Al-Cu alloys, experiments were run under terrestrial gravity (1g) and under low gravity during parabolic flights (10(exp -2) g). Alloys of two different compositions (2% and 5% Cu) were solidified at two different cooling rates. Systematic microscopic and SEM observations produced microstructural and segregation maps for all samples. These maps may be used as benchmark experiments for validation of microstructure evolution and segregation models. As expected, the macro segregation maps are very complex. When segregation was measured along the central axis of the sample, the highest macro segregation for samples solidified at 1g was obtained for the lowest cooling rate. This behavior is attributed to the longer time available for natural convection and shrinkage flow to affect solute redistribution. In samples solidified under low-g, the highest macro-segregation was obtained at the highest cooling rate. In general, low-gravity solidification resulted in less segregation. To explain the experimental findings, an analytical (Flemings-Nereo) and a numerical model were used. For the numerical model, the continuum formulation was employed to describe the macroscopic transports of mass, energy, and momentum, associated with the microscopic transport phenomena, for a two-phase system. The model proposed considers that liquid flow is driven by thermal and solutal buoyancy, and by solidification shrinkage. The Flemings-Nereo model explains well macro segregation in the initial stages of low-gravity segregation. The numerical model can describe the complex macro segregation pattern and the differences between low- and high-gravity solidification.

Stefanescu, Doru M.↗

Regulation of Blood Volume During Spaceflight

The effects of spaceflight on erythropoiesis and blood volume in the rat were studied during the 14-day NASA Spacelab Life Sciences 2 (SLS-2) Shuttle mission. Measurements included red blood cell mass (RBCM), plasma volume (PV), iron utilization and iron utilization in response to an injection of erythropoietin. Red blood cell (RBC) survival, splenic sequestration and erythrocyte morphology were also evaluated. At landing, the RBCM adjusted for body weight was significantly lower in the flight animals than in the ground controls. While the PV was also decreased, the change was not statistically significant. Incorporation of iron into circulating RBCs was normal when measured after five days of spaceflight and the rat responded normally to the single in-flight injection of erythropoietin. No change in RBC morphology could be attributed to spaceflight. A normal survival was found for the RBC population that was represented by Cr-51 labeled RBCS. These results demonstrate that rats, like humans, return from spaceflight with a decreased RBCM and total blood volume.

Alfrey, Clarence P.↗

Radial Flows in Supergranules

We determine the radial component of the supergranular flow velocity by examining the center-to-limb variation of the Doppler velocity signal. We acquire individual Doppler images obtained with the MDI instrument on the SOHO spacecraft and process them to remove the p-mode oscillation signal, the axisymmetric flows, the convective blueshift signal, and instrumental artifacts. The remaining Doppler signal contains only cellular flow structures. The Doppler signal from the horizontal flows in these cells varies like sin p, where p is the heliocentric angle from disk center. The Doppler signal from radial flows varies like cos p. We fit the center-to-limb variation of the mean squared velocity signal to a straight line in sin(exp 2) rho over the central portion of the disk. The intercept of this line at disk center gives the amplitude of the radial component of the flow. The slope of the line gives the amplitude of the horizontal component. We find that the radial flows for typical supergranules have speeds about 10% that of their associated horizontal flows or about 30 m/s. The ratio of the radial to horizontal flow speed increases from 9% to about 18% as the size of the cells decreases from > 60 Mm to approximately 5 Mm. We use data simulations to check these results and find a ratio that increases from 5% to only about 12% over the same range of cell sizes. These smaller ratios are attributed to an underestimation of the horizontal flow speeds due to the fact that, the transverse component of the horizontal flow is not detected by the Doppler measurements.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

Mechanisms for the Crystallization of Zblan

The heavy metal fluoride glasses represent a class of reasonably good glass forming compositions with very unique infrared optical properties that have been of interest to researchers for 20 years. The most extensively studied glass with the most potential for practical applications is ZBLAN which contains the fluorides of zirconium, barium, lanthanum, aluminum, and sodium. It has a broad transmission range (0.3-6 um), low index of refraction (about 1.43), low dispersion, low Raleigh scattering, ultra-low thermal 2 dispersion, and potential ultra-low signal attenuation. Potential applications include fiber amplifiers, fiber optic gyroscopes, delivery systems for laser cutting, drilling and surgery, radiation resistant data links, nonlinear optical systems, and ultra-low-loss repeater-less transcontinental and transoceanic optical fiber. Potential markets for these materials are in the tens of billions of dollars per year. Optical fiber from this system possess excellent transmission characteristics in the IR, but the glass is somewhat susceptible to nucleation and crystallization. The theoretical intrinsic loss coefficient for ZBLAN at 2 microns is 0.00 1 dB/Km. Extrinsic losses, however, cause significant attenuation. The lowest loss coefficient measured is 0.7 dB/Km. This compares with the loss coefficient for fiber optic grade fused silica glass of 0.2 dB/Km. The extrinsic losses in ZBLAN have been attributed to 1) impurities which might be lowered by containerless processing and 2) to scattering from micro-crystallites that form during glass preform production or during fiber drawing.

Ethridge, Edwin C.↗

Polar, Cluster and SuperDARN Evidence for High-Latitude Merging during Southward IMF: Temporal/Spatial Evolution

Magnetic merging on the dayside magnetopause often occurs at high latitudes. Polar measured fluxes of accelerated ions and wave Poynting vectors while skimming the subsolar magnetopause. The measurements indicate that their source was located to the north of the spacecraft, well removed from expected component merging sites. This represents the first use of wave Poynting flux as a merging discriminator at the magnetopause. We argue that wave Poynting vectors, like accelerated particle fluxes and the Walen tests, are necessary, but not sufficient, conditions, for identifying merging events. The Polar data are complemented with nearly simultaneous measurements from Cluster in the northern cusp, with correlated observations from the SuperDARN radar, to show that the locations and rates of merging vary. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations are used to place the measurements into a global context. The MHD simulations confirm the existence of a high-latitude merging site and suggest that Polar and SuperDARN observed effects are attributable to both exhaust regions of a temporally varying X-line. A survey of 13 merging events places the location at high latitudes whenever the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle is less than approximately 150 degrees. While inferred high-latitude merging sites favor the antiparallel merging hypothesis, our data alone cannot exclude the possible existence of a guide field. Merging can even move away from equatorial latitudes when the IMF has a strong southward component. MHD simulations suggest that this happens when the dipole tilt angle increases or when IMF B(sub X) increases the effective dipole tilt.

Maynard, N. C.↗

Using information Theory in Optimal Test Point Selection for Health Management in NASA's Exploration Vehicles

In this paper, we will present a new methodology that measures the "worth" of deploying an additional testing instrument (sensor) in terms of the amount of information that can be retrieved from such measurement. This quantity is obtained using a probabilistic model of RLV's that has been partially developed in the NASA Ames Research Center. A number of correlated attributes are identified and used to obtain the worth of deploying a sensor in a given test point from an information-theoretic viewpoint. Once the information-theoretic worth of sensors is formulated and incorporated into our general model for IHM performance, the problem can be formulated as a constrained optimization problem where reliability and operational safety of the system as a whole is considered. Although this research is conducted specifically for RLV's, the proposed methodology in its generic form can be easily extended to other domains of systems health monitoring.

Mehr, Ali Farhang↗

Software Quality Assurance Metrics

Software Quality Assurance (SQA) is a planned and systematic set of activities that ensures conformance of software life cycle processes and products conform to requirements, standards and procedures. In software development, software quality means meeting requirements and a degree of excellence and refinement of a project or product. Software Quality is a set of attributes of a software product by which its quality is described and evaluated. The set of attributes includes functionality, reliability, usability, efficiency, maintainability, and portability. Software Metrics help us understand the technical process that is used to develop a product. The process is measured to improve it and the product is measured to increase quality throughout the life cycle of software. Software Metrics are measurements of the quality of software. Software is measured to indicate the quality of the product, to assess the productivity of the people who produce the product, to assess the benefits derived from new software engineering methods and tools, to form a baseline for estimation, and to help justify requests for new tools or additional training. Any part of the software development can be measured. If Software Metrics are implemented in software development, it can save time, money, and allow the organization to identify the caused of defects which have the greatest effect on software development. The summer of 2004, I worked with Cynthia Calhoun and Frank Robinson in the Software Assurance/Risk Management department. My task was to research and collect, compile, and analyze SQA Metrics that have been used in other projects that are not currently being used by the SA team and report them to the Software Assurance team to see if any metrics can be implemented in their software assurance life cycle process.

McRae, Kalindra A.↗

Predicting the Size and Timing of Sunspot Maximum for Cycle 24

For cycle 24, the minimum value of the 12-month moving average (12-mma) of the AA-geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (AAm) appears to have occurred in September 2009, measuring about 8.4 nT and following sunspot minimum by 9 months. This is the lowest value of AAm ever recorded, falling below that of 8.9 nT, previously attributed to cycle 14, which also is the smallest maximum amplitude (RM) cycle of the modern era (RM = 64.2). Based on the method of Ohl (the preferential association between RM and AAm for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to have RM = 55+/-17 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval). Instead, using a variation of Ohl's method, one based on using 2-cycle moving averages (2-cma), one expects cycle 23's 2-cma of RM to be about 115.5+/-8.7 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval), inferring an RM of about 62+/-35 for cycle 24. Hence, it seems clear that cycle 24 will be smaller in size than was seen in cycle 23 (RM = 120.8) and, likely, will be comparable in size to that of cycle 14. From the Waldmeier effect (the preferential association between the ascent duration (ASC) and RM for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to be a slow-rising cycle (ASC > or equal to 48 months), having RM occurrence after December 2012, unless it turns out to be a statistical outlier.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Microanalysis of Hypervelocity Impact Residues of Possible Interstellar Origin

The NASA Stardust spacecraft deployed two collector trays, one dedicated to the collection of dust from Comet Wild 2, and the other for the capture of interstellar dust (ISD). The samples were returned successfully to Earth in 2006, and now provide an unprecedented opportunity for laboratory-based microanalysis of materials from the outer solar system and beyond. Results from the cometary sample studies have demonstrated that Wild 2 contains much more refractory condensate material and much less pristine extra-solar material than expected, which further indicates that there was significant transport of inner solar system materials to the Kuiper Belt in the early solar system [1]. The analysis of the interstellar samples is still in the preliminary examination (PE) phase, due to the level of difficulty in the definitive identification of the ISD features, the overall low abundance, and its irreplaceable nature, which necessitates minimally invasive measurements [2]. We present here coordinated microanalysis of the impact features on the Al foils, which have led to the identification of four impacts that are possibly attributable to interstellar dust. Results from the study of four ISD candidates captured in aerogel are presented elsewhere [2].

Stroud, Rhonda M.↗

Intercomparison of MODIS Albedo Retrievals and In Situ Measurements Across the Global FLUXNET Network

Surface albedo is a key parameter in the Earth's energy balance since it affects the amount of solar radiation directly absorbed at the planet surface. Its variability in time and space can be globally retrieved through the use of remote sensing products. To evaluate and improve the quality of satellite retrievals, careful intercomparisons with in situ measurements of surface albedo are crucial. For this purpose we compared MODIS albedo retrievals with surface measurements taken at 53 FLUXNET sites that met strict conditions of land cover homogeneity. A good agreement between mean yearly values of satellite retrievals and in situ measurements was found (R(exp 2)= 0.82). The mismatch is correlated to the spatial heterogeneity of surface albedo, stressing the relevance of land cover homogeneity when comparing point to pixel data. When the seasonal patterns of MODIS albedo is considered for different plant functional types, the match with surface observation is extremely good at all forest sites. On the contrary, in non-forest sites satellite retrievals underestimate in situ measurements across the seasonal cycle. The mismatch observed at grasslands and croplands sites is likely due to the extreme fragmentation of these landscapes, as confirmed by geostatistical attributes derived from high resolution scenes.

Cescatti, Alessandro↗

Self-Assembled Bolaamphiphile-Based Organic Nanotubes as Efficient Cu(II) Ion Adsorbents

Self-assembled organic nanotubes (ONTs) have been actively examined for various applications such as chemical separations and catalysis owing to their well-defined tubular nanostructures with distinct chemical environments at the wall and internal/external surfaces. Adsorption of heavy metal ions onto ONTs plays an essential role in many of these applications, but it has rarely been assessed quantitatively. Herein, we investigated interactions between Cu 2+ and single-/quadruple-wall bolaamphiphile-based ONTs having inner carboxyl groups with different inner diameters, COOH-ONT 10nm and COOH-ONT 20nm . We first examined the effects of Cu 2+ on their nanotubular structures using SAXS, STEM, and AFM. COOH-ONT 10nm was stable in aqueous Cu 2+ solution in contrast to COOH-ONT 20nm owing to the presence of polyglycine-II-type hydrogen bonding networks within its wall. Subsequently, we studied the Cu 2+ adsorption behavior of COOH-ONT 10nm by monitoring the concentration of unbound Cu 2+ using linear sweep anodic stripping voltammetry. The Cu 2+ adsorption was quick, attributable to efficient Cu 2+ partitioning through the open ends of the ONT, followed by fast Cu 2+ diffusion in the uniform, relatively large nanochannel. More importantly, the Cu 2+ adsorption capacity and affinity of COOH-ONT 10nm were measured at different pH using the Langmuir adsorption model. The adsorption capacity was similar at the pH range examined, showing the participation of approximately 25% of the inner carboxyl groups in the adsorption. The adsorption affinity increased with pH, indicating the essential role of the deprotonated carboxyl groups in the Cu 2+ adsorption. Most interestingly, the Langmuir adsorption constant was significantly higher than those of previously reported synthetic adsorbents and planar monolayer based on carboxyl binding sites. The high Cu 2+ affinity of the ONT was attributable to the highly dense binding sites on the well-defined nanoscale concave structure of the inner channel. Furthermore, these results provide a valuable guideline to designing self-assembled nanomaterials for efficient chemical separations, detection, and catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Attribution of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Ozone Radiative Flux Bias from Satellites

The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave flux over the 9.6-μm ozone band is a fundamental quantity for understanding chemistry-climate coupling. However, observed TOA fluxes are hard to estimate as they exhibit considerable variability in space and time that depend on the distributions of clouds, ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), air temperature (Ta), and surface temperature (Ts). Benchmarking present day fluxes and quantifying the relative influence of their drivers is the first step for estimating climate feedbacks from ozone radiative forcing and predicting radiative forcing evolution. To that end, we constructed observational instantaneous radiative kernels (IRKs) under clear-sky conditions, representing the sensitivities of the TOA flux in the 9.6-μm ozone band to the vertical distribution of geophysical variables, including O3, H2O, Ta, and Ts based upon the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) measurements. Applying these kernels to present-day simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project as compared to a 2006 reanalysis assimilating satellite observations, we show that the models have large differences in TOA flux, attributable to different geophysical variables. In particular, model simulations continue to diverge from observations in the tropics, as reported in previous studies of the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations. The principal culprits are tropical mid and upper tropospheric ozone followed by tropical lower tropospheric H2O. Five models out of the eight studied here have TOA flux biases exceeding 100 mWm-2 attributable to tropospheric ozone bias. Another set of five models have flux biases over 50 mWm-2 due to H2O. On the other hand, Ta radiative bias is negligible in all models (no more than 30 mWm-2). We found that AM3 and CMAM have the lowest TOA flux biases globally but are a result of cancellation of opposite biases due to difference processes. Overall, the multi-model ensemble mean bias is –133±98 mWm-2, indicating that they are too atmospherically opaque due to trapping too much radiation in the atmosphere by overestimated tropical tropospheric O3 and H2O. Having too much O3 and H2O in the troposphere would have different impacts on the sensitivity of TOA flux to O3 and these competing effects add more uncertainties on the ozone radiative forcing. We find that the inter-model TOA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) difference is well anti-correlated with their ozone band flux bias. This suggests that there is significant radiative compensation in the calculation of model outgoing longwave radiation.

Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) meas↗

Fiber-Optic Coupled Lidar Receiver System to Measure Stratospheric Ozone

The measurement of ozone in the atmosphere has become increasingly important over the past two decades. Significant increases of ozone concentrations in the lower atmosphere, or troposphere, and decreases in the upper atmosphere, or stratosphere, have been attributed to man-made causes. High ozone concentrations in the troposphere pose a health hazard to plants and animals and can add to global warming. On the other hand, ozone in the stratosphere serves as a protective barrier against strong ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun. Man-made CFC's (chlorofluorocarbons) act as a catalyst with a free oxygen atom and an ozone molecule to produce two oxygen molecules therefore depleting the protective layer of ozone in the stratosphere. The beneficial and harmful effects of ozone require the study of ozone creation and destruction processes in the atmosphere. Therefore, to provide an accurate model of these processes, an ozone lidar system must be able to be used frequently with as large a measurement range as possible. Various methods can be used to measure atmospheric ozone concentrations. These include different airborne and balloon measurements, solar occulation satellite techniques, and the use of lasers in lidar (high detection and ranging,) systems to probe the atmosphere. Typical devices such as weather balloons can only measure within the direct vicinity of the instrument and are therefore used infrequently. Satellites use solar occulation techniques that yield low horizontal and vertical resolution column densities of ozone.

Harper, David Brent↗

Galileo observations of the motions of ion and electron plasmas in the magnetotail

A series of simultaneous determinations is presented of the 3D bulk flows of ion and electron plasmas in the magnetotail at radial distances near the lunar orbit. In the plasma mantle the ion and electron bulk velocities are identical within measurement accuracy. In the plasma sheet the electron bulk flows, densities, and temperatures are consistent with the results of the previous ISEE-3 survey at these radial distances as given by Zwickl et al. (1984). The present observations show that the electron bulk flows are often dominantly field-aligned and attributable to field-aligned currents, not convective motions within the magnetotail. The E x B convection of the plasmas as determined directly from the ion observation is often significantly slower and/or in a different direction than the bulk motions of either the ion or the electron plasmas. Thus, the ISEE-3 observations of electron bulk flows cannot be reliably used as measures of the E x B convection of plasmas or ion bulk motions at these distances in the plasma sheet.

Frank, L. A.↗

In-line measurements of below-the-surface food deformation during drying with an interference-based optical fiber strain sensor

Real-time measurements of food deformation are important for quality control in drying, yet they pose significant challenges. In this study, we developed an interference-based optical fiber strain sensor to enable in-line, continuous, below-the-surface strain measurements in drying of soft food samples. Compared to a strain resolution of 8 × 10 -4 at zero strain and 7.2 × 10 -3 at 0.20 strain reported in our previously published work, the present study achieves markedly improved resolutions of 1.3 × 10 -4 at zero strain and 7.8 × 10 -4 at 0.25 strain, which strains are the lower and higher boundaries of the dynamic range, respectively. This nearly order-of-magnitude improvement is attributed to the unique interference-based sensing mechanism, no need for calibration to convert optical signals to strain, and the system-design-enabled immunity to fiber-disk misalignments and light source intensity fluctuations. To demonstrate the in-line process monitoring, deformation measurements of fresh banana slices and sugar cookie doughs were carried out in a benchtop oven and an industrial-scale hot-air pilot dryer, respectively. In both dryers, strain measurements were continuously measured during the whole drying process at various depths and radii below the sample surfaces, with the strains up to 25%. Computer vision was used only in the benchtop drying to confirm the faithfulness of the fiber sensor measurements and cannot provide below-the-surface measurements. The measured spatiotemporal deformation allowed us to confirm the shell-hardening effect and to determine the speed and location of large deformation changes in the whole drying process, the latter of which is related to the sample cracking. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to report on an interferometry-based fiber sensor to measure food deformation. This sensor and the sensing mechanism have high potential for real-time process monitoring and control to prevent over-drying or cracking during drying processes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗