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At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021

Abstract This study investigates global tropical cyclone (TC) activity trends from 1990 to 2021, a period marked by largely consistent observational platforms. Several global TC metrics have decreased during this period, with significant decreases in hurricane numbers and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Most of this decrease has been driven by significant downward trends in the western North Pacific. Globally, short‐lived named storms, 24‐hr intensification events of ≥50 kt day −1 , and TC‐related damage have increased significantly. The increase in short‐lived named storms is likely due to technological improvements, while rapidly intensifying TC increases may be fueled by higher potential intensity. Damage increases are largely due to increased coastal assets. The significant decrease in hurricane numbers and global ACE are likely due to the trend toward a more La Niña‐like base state from 1990 to 2021, favoring North Atlantic TC activity and suppressing North and South Pacific TC activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Idealized Simulations of the Tropical Climate and Variability in the Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM): Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

To explore the interactions among column processes in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), the single-column version of CAM (SCAM) is integrated for 1000 days in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) with tropical values of boundary conditions, spanning a parameter or configuration space of model physics versions (v5 vs. v6), vertical resolution (standard and 60 levels), sea surface temperature (SST), and some interpretation-driven experiments. The simulated time-mean climate is reasonable, near observations and RCE of a cyclic cloud-resolving model. Updraft detrainment in the deep convection scheme produces distinctive grid-scale structures in humidity and cloud, which also interact with radiative transfer processes. These grid artifacts average out in multi-column RCE results reported elsewhere, illustrating the nuts-and-bolts interpretability that SCAM adds to the hierarchy of model configurations. Multi-day oscillations of precipitation arise from descent of warm convection-capping layers starting near the tropopause, eventually reset by a burst of convective deepening. Experiments reveal how these oscillations depend critically on an internal parameter that controls the number of neutral buoyancy levels allowed for determining cloud top and computing dilute convective available potential energy in the deep convection scheme, and merely modified a little by disabling cloud-base radiation (heating of cloud base). This strong dependence of transient behavior in 1D on this parameter will be tested in the second part of this work, in which SCAM is coupled to a parameterized dynamics of two-dimensional, linearized gravity wave, and in the 3D simulations in future study.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-Term Changes in Concentration and Yield of Riverine Dissolved Silicon From the Poles to the Tropics

Riverine exports of silicon (Si) influence global carbon cycling through the growth of marine diatoms, which account for ~25% of global primary production. Climate change will likely alter river Si exports in biome-specific ways due to interacting shifts in chemical weathering rates, hydrologic connectivity, and metabolic processes in aquatic and terrestrial systems. Nonetheless, factors driving long-term changes in Si exports remain unexplored at local, regional, and global scales. We evaluated how concentrations and yields of dissolved Si (DSi) changed over the last several decades of rapid climate warming using long-term data sets from 60 rivers and streams spanning the globe (e.g., Antarctic, tropical, temperate, boreal, alpine, Arctic systems). We show that widespread changes in river DSi concentration and yield have occurred, with the most substantial shifts occurring in alpine and polar regions. The magnitude and direction of trends varied within and among biomes, were most strongly associated with differences in land cover, and were often independent of changes in river discharge. These findings indicate that there are likely diverse mechanisms driving change in river Si biogeochemistry that span the land-water interface, which may include glacial melt, changes in terrestrial vegetation, and river productivity. Finally, trends were often stronger in months outside of the growing season, particularly in temperate and boreal systems, demonstrating a potentially important role of shifting seasonality for the flux of Si from rivers. Our results have implications for the timing and magnitude of silica processing in rivers and its delivery to global oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Westward-Propagating Moisture Mode Over the Tropical Western Hemisphere

A westward-propagating Rossby-like wave signal is found to explain a large fraction of the intraseasonal variance in cloud brightness over the Western Hemisphere. A series of diagnostic criteria suggest that this wave is a moisture mode: its moisture anomalies dominate the distribution of moist static energy (MSE) and are in phase with the precipitation anomalies; and the thermodynamic equation obeys the weak temperature gradient approximation. Further, the wave propagates westward due to zonal moisture advection by the mean flow and is maintained by radiative heating and meridional moisture advection. These properties compare favorably with the westward propagating Rossby mode in an equatorial beta-plane model with prognostic moisture, mean meridional moisture gradient, and mean zonal wind. These results underscore the importance of water vapor in the dynamics of slowly evolving tropical systems, and the limitations of dry shallow water theory that rely on a “reduced equivalent depth” to represent moist dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precipitation–Moisture Coupling Over Tropical Oceans: Sequential Roles of Shallow, Deep, and Mesoscale Convective Systems

We report Precipitation over tropical oceans rapidly increases when the environmental column saturation fraction (CSF) increases past a critical value of ~0.7. Past studies suggested that increased stratiform rainfall greatly contributes to the rapid rainfall enhancement. In this study, the sequential roles of non-deep convection, deep convection, and mesoscale convective system (MCS) in precipitation-moisture interactions are examined using 19 years of satellite observations. When CSF is below ~0.5, non-deep convection dominates total rainfall, and predominantly contributes to moistening of the environment. Between the CSF range of 0.5–0.7, transition to deep convective rainfall begins. Meanwhile, MCS contribution to total rain rapidly increases, and the environment is further moistened. MCS becomes the major rainfall type above the critical CSF value (~0.7), with the rapid increase of total rain mostly explained by the rapid increase in MCS rain area. Rainfall reduction at high CSF values is jointly contributed by MCS and non-deep convection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equatorial Origin of the Observed Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Variability From ENSO Nonlinearity

Quasi-decadal (QD) climate variability is detected in the tropical Pacific based on the recent 70 years of observations. This QD variability is identified in equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the pattern of which resembles the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but extends further meridionally to the northeastern subtropical Pacific. Whereas equatorial upper-ocean heat content and SSTs are in quadrature for ENSO, these two quantities are almost in phase on the QD timescale. Further analysis shows that nonlinear dynamical heating, primarily originating from strong El Niño events, tends to lead QD SSTs by a quarter of its dominant period (approximately 30 months) and shapes the dominant QD periodicity in observations. Here, our results suggest that the observed QD variability largely originates from ENSO nonlinearity and thus is fundamentally different from ENSO's oscillatory nature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intrinsic Century-Scale Variability in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Influence on Western US Hydroclimate

Hydroclimate variability of the southwest United States (SWUS) is influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly through the teleconnection to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected to be altered by climate change. Natural variability in this teleconnection has not been robustly quantified, complicating the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we use a linear inverse model (LIM) to quantify natural variability in the ENSO-SWUS teleconnection. The LIM yields realistic teleconnection patterns with century-scale variability comparable to simulations from the Last Millennium Ensemble project and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. The variability quantified by the LIM illuminates two aspects of our understanding of ENSO and its impacts: the inherent statistics of the observable system can produce century-long periods with a wide range of correlations to SWUS hydroclimate, including nonsignificant correlations, and thus that detecting changes in ENSO-related hydroclimate variability is challenging in a changing climate.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of African Easterly Wave Suppression on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Convection-Permitting Model

African easterly waves (AEWs) are strongly linked to Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on the synoptic timescale by serving as seedling disturbances for TC genesis. However, it is unclear whether climatological TC frequency is limited by AEWs. We investigated the impact of suppressing AEWs using a 3-member ensemble of convection-permitting regional model simulations, in which AEWs were either retained or removed through the lateral boundary conditions. Suppressing AEWs did not substantially change seasonal TC number, but did influence TC intensity, genesis time and location. Suppressing AEWs produced stronger TCs, shifted peak TC genesis from September to August, and reduced (increased) TC genesis in the eastern Atlantic (Gulf of Mexico). Without AEWs, TCs generated under more favorable large-scale atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, these results indicate that AEWs may not be reliable predictors of basin-wide seasonal TC frequency. However, simulations provide evidence that AEWs could influence the large-scale environment that is important for TCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modulation of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Seasonal Cycle by Tropical Instability Waves

Feedbacks from tropical instability waves (TIWs) on the seasonal cycle of the eastern Pacific Ocean are studied using two eddy-rich ocean simulations, with and without TIWs. By warming the equatorial waters by up to 0.4°C through nonlinear advection in boreal summer and fall, TIWs reduce the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in upper ocean temperatures. In addition, TIWs stabilize the upper part of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) through enhanced barotropic energy conversion, leading to a year-round weakening by -0.15 m s -1 and preventing an unrealistic re-intensification in boreal fall usually found in non-eddy resolving models. A coarser simulation at 1-degree horizontal resolution fails to reproduce the TIW-induced nonlinear warming of equatorial waters, but succeeds in inhibiting the EUC re-intensification. This suggests a threshold effect in TIW strength, associated with the model's ability to simulate eddies, which may be responsible for long-standing biases displayed by global climate models in this region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Role of Tropical Cyclones in Determining ENSO Characteristics

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can effectively modulate global tropical cyclone (TC) activity, but the role TCs may play in determining ENSO characteristics remains unclear. Here we investigate the impact of TC winds on ENSO using a suite of Earth system model experiments where we insert TC winds, extracted from a TC-permitting high-resolution simulation, into a low-resolution model configuration with nearly no intrinsic TCs. The presence of TC winds in the model increases ENSO power and shifts ENSO frequency closer to what we observe. TCs lead to an increase of strong to extreme El Niño events seen in observations and not simulated in the low-resolution model without intrinsic TCs, mainly through enhanced zonal advection feedback and thermocline feedback. Our results indicate that TCs play a fundamental role in producing the ENSO characteristics we experience today in the climate system and point to a two-way climatological interaction between TCs and ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Changes in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition in a Warming Climate: Quasi-Idealized Numerical Experiments of North Atlantic Landfalling Events

The current study extends earlier work that demonstrated future extratropical transition (ET) events will feature greater intensity and heavier precipitation to specifically consider potential changes in the impacts of landfalling ET events in a warming climate. A quasi-idealized modeling framework allows comparison of highly similar present-day and future event simulations; the model initial conditions are based on observational composites, increasing representativeness of the results. The future composite ET event features substantially more impactful weather conditions in coastal areas, with heavier precipitation and greater storm intensity. Specifically, a Category 2 present-day storm attained Category 4 Saffir-Simpson intensity in the future simulation and maintained greater intensity throughout the entire life cycle, although the storm undergoes less reintensification during the post-ET process, a result of reduced baroclinic conversion. These findings suggest increased potential for coastal hazards due to stronger tropical cyclone winds and heavier rainfall, leading to more severe coastal flooding and storm surge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting the Definition of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones by Clustering the Initial Intensity and Inner‐Core Size

Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) provides a great challenge in operational forecasting and contributes significantly to the development of major TCs. RI is commonly defined as an increase in the maximum sustained surface wind speed of at least a certain threshold within 24 hr. The most widely used threshold is 30 kt (15.4 m/s), which was determined statistically. Here we propose a new definition for RI by objectively clustering TCs using the intensification rate, initial intensity, and radius of the maximum wind speed (RMW). A group of 770 samples is separated at a threshold of 45 kt (23.2 m/s). The threshold is 40 kt (20.6 m/s) for the western North Atlantic, where TC size measurements are more reliable. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the proposed threshold is robust even considering the uncertainty in RMW of as high as 30 km. We show that, when a TC undergoes RI, its maximum wind speed is approximately 60 ± 15 kt (30.9 ± 7.7 m/s) and the RMW is 45 ± 20 km. The new threshold outperforms the conventional threshold of 30 kt/24 hr in describing the bimodal distribution of lifetime maximum intensity and explaining the annual count of Category 5 TCs. This new definition provides a more physically based threshold and describes a more reliable representation of extreme events. Although more comparisons are needed for operational application, it is likely to be desirable for case‐based process studies and could provide a more valuable metric for TC intensification classification and research.

Li, Yi↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Relationship Between African Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones in Historical and Future Climates in the HighResMIP‐PRIMAVERA Simulations

Abstract The deadly and destructive nature of tropical cyclones (TCs) makes understanding their response to future climate change of the utmost importance. TC genesis hinges on multiple factors, including an initial disturbance. African easterly waves (AEWs) have been shown to serve as such disturbances for TCs developing in the North Atlantic. It is therefore crucial to understand the relationship between AEWs and TCs and how this relationship may be affected by climate change. In this study, we examine the AEW‐TC relationship in historical and future climates using three models from the HighResMIP PRIMAVERA simulations. The AEWs and TCs were tracked in the model data using objective tracking algorithms, and AEW and TC tracks were then matched together if they were close to each other in space and time. The strength of the AEWs was measured using the eddy kinetic energy and the curvature vorticity of the waves. TC strength and intensity were measured using potential intensity and lifetime maximum 10 m windspeed. We found that future changes in the frequency of AEWs are not a good indicator of future TC activity. However, AEW strength, as well as environmental conditions conducive to strong TCs, are good indicators of AEWs that develop into TCs in both historical and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Energetic Diagnostic of Tropical Cyclone Size in f –Plane Simulations

As a major feature of tropical cyclones (TCs), controlling factors of TC outer size or size scaling remains a fundamental scientific question. The Rossby deformation radius and a natural extent associated with potential intensity have been proposed as two scalings of TC size. But neither of them satisfactorily captures the sensitivity of TC size to sea surface temperature (SST) in idealized f-plane simulations. Inspired by the studies of the Hadley circulation, here we proposed a new TC scaling based on an energetic diagnostic scaling. TC size is primarily a ratio of the secondary circulation strength to subsidence velocity, further determined by the total atmospheric heating in the ascending area, the gross moist stability, the diabatic cooling, and the dry static stability. The former two is based on the moist energetic budget applied to the whole storm structure, while the latter two is based on the dry thermodynamic budget applied to the subsidence areas. The new scaling well captured the sensitivity of TC size to SST in idealized f-plane simulations, partly resulted from expanded ascending area, increased surface moisture deficit, and weakened subsidence with increased SST.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrodynamic Modeling of Stratification and Mixing in a Shallow, Tropical Floodplain Lake

Abstract Floodplain lakes are widespread and ecologically important throughout tropical river systems, however data are rare that describe how temporal variations in hydrological, meteorological and optical conditions moderate stratification and mixing in these shallow lakes. Using time series measurements of meteorology and water‐column temperatures from 17 several day campaigns spanning two hydrological years in a representative Amazon floodplain lake, we calculated surface energy fluxes and thermal stratification, and applied and evaluated a 3‐dimensional hydrodynamic model. The model successfully simulated diel cycles in thermal structure characterized by buoyancy frequency, depth of the actively mixing layer, and other terms associated with the surface energy budget. Diurnal heating with strong stratification and nocturnal mixing were common; despite considerable heat loss at night, the strong stratification during the day meant that mixing only infrequently extended to the bottom at night. Simulations indicated that the diurnal thermocline up and downwelled creating lake‐wide differences in near‐surface temperatures and mixing depths. Infrequent full mixing creates conditions conducive to anoxia in these shallow lakes given their warm temperatures.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Signal in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Today and Near Future

This manuscript discusses the challenges in detecting and attributing recently observed trends in the Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) and the epistemic uncertainty we face in assessing future risk. We use synthetic storms downscaled from five CMIP5 models by the Columbia HAZard model (CHAZ), and directly simulated storms from high-resolution climate models. We examine three aspects of recent TC activity: the upward trend and multi-decadal oscillation of the annual frequency, the increase in storm wind intensity, and the decrease in forward speed. Some data sets suggest that these trends and oscillation are forced while others suggest that they can be explained by natural variability. Projections under warming climate scenarios also show a wide range of possibilities, especially for the annual frequencies, which increase or decrease depending on the choice of moisture variable used in the CHAZ model and on the choice of climate model. The uncertainties in the annual frequency lead to epistemic uncertainties in TC risk assessment. Here, we investigate the potential for reduction of these epistemic uncertainties through a statistical practice, namely likelihood analysis. We find that historical observations are more consistent with the simulations with increasing frequency than those with decreasing frequency, but we are not able to rule out the latter. We argue that the most rational way to treat epistemic uncertainty is to consider all outcomes contained in the results. In the context of risk assessment, since the results contain possible outcomes in which TC risk is increasing, this view implies that the risk is increasing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24‐hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large‐scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high‐resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗