Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Interpreting SBUV Smoothing Errors: an Example Using the Quasi-biennial Oscillation

The Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) observing system consists of a series of instruments that have been measuring both total ozone and the ozone profile since 1970. SBUV measures the profile in the upper stratosphere with a resolution that is adequate to resolve most of the important features of that region. In the lower stratosphere the limited vertical resolution of the SBUV system means that there are components of the profile variability that SBUV cannot measure. The smoothing error, as defined in the optimal estimation retrieval method, describes the components of the profile variability that the SBUV observing system cannot measure. In this paper we provide a simple visual interpretation of the SBUV smoothing error by comparing SBUV ozone anomalies in the lower tropical stratosphere associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to anomalies obtained from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). We describe a methodology for estimating the SBUV smoothing error for monthly zonal mean (mzm) profiles. We construct covariance matrices that describe the statistics of the inter-annual ozone variability using a 6 yr record of Aura MLS and ozonesonde data. We find that the smoothing error is of the order of 1percent between 10 and 1 hPa, increasing up to 15-20 percent in the troposphere and up to 5 percent in the mesosphere. The smoothing error for total ozone columns is small, mostly less than 0.5 percent. We demonstrate that by merging the partial ozone columns from several layers in the lower stratosphere/troposphere into one thick layer, we can minimize the smoothing error. We recommend using the following layer combinations to reduce the smoothing error to about 1 percent: surface to 25 hPa (16 hPa) outside (inside) of the narrow equatorial zone 20 S-20 N.

ozone profile retrievals↗
DOE OSTI2015

Improve earthquake hypocenter using adaptive simulated annealing inversion in regional tectonic, volcano tectonic, and geothermal observation

Observation of earthquakes is routinely used widely in tectonic activity observation, and also in local scale such as volcano tectonic and geothermal activity observation. It is necessary for determining the location of precise hypocenter which the process involves finding a hypocenter location that has minimum error between the observed and the calculated travel times. When solving this nonlinear inverse problem, simulated annealing inversion method can be applied to such global optimization problems, which the convergence of its solution is independent of the initial model. In this study, we developed own program codeby applying adaptive simulated annealing inversion in Matlab environment. We applied this method to determine earthquake hypocenter using several data cases which are regional tectonic, volcano tectonic, and geothermal field. The travel times were calculated using ray tracing shooting method. We then compared its results with the results using Geiger’s method to analyze its reliability. Our results show hypocenter location has smaller RMS error compared to the Geiger’s result that can be statistically associated with better solution. The hypocenter of earthquakes also well correlated with geological structure in the study area. Werecommend using adaptive simulated annealing inversion to relocate hypocenter location in purpose to get precise and accurate earthquake location.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Bayesian Inverse Problems: A High-Dimensional Statistics Viewpoint

This paper analyzes hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems using techniques from highdimensional statistics. Furthermore, our analysis leverages a property of hierarchical Bayesian regularizers that we call approximate decomposability to obtain non-asymptotic bounds on the reconstruction error attained by maximum a posteriori estimators. The new theory explains how hierarchical Bayesian models that exploit sparsity, group sparsity, and sparse representations of the unknown parameter can achieve accurate reconstructions in high-dimensional settings.

MAP estimation↗
NASA NTRS2003

Mathematical Inversion of Lightning Data: Techniques and Applications

A survey of some interesting mathematical inversion studies dealing with radio, optical, and electrostatic measurements of lightning are presented. A discussion of why NASA is interested in lightning, what specific physical properties of lightning are retrieved, and what mathematical techniques are used to perform the retrievals are discussed. In particular, a relatively new multi-station VHF time-of-arrival (TOA) antenna network is now on-line in Northern Alabama and will be discussed. The network, called the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), employs GPS timing and detects VHF radiation from discrete segments (effectively point emitters) that comprise the channel of lightning strokes within cloud and ground flashes. The LMA supports on-going ground-validation activities of the low Earth orbiting Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) satellite developed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. The LMA also provides detailed studies of the distribution and evolution of thunderstorms and lightning in the Tennessee Valley, and offers interesting comparisons with other meteorological/geophysical datasets. In order to take full advantage of these benefits, it is essential that the LMA channel mapping accuracy (in both space and time) be fully characterized and optimized. A new channel mapping retrieval algorithm is introduced for this purpose. To characterize the spatial distribution of retrieval errors, the algorithm has been applied to analyze literally tens of millions of computer-simulated lightning VHF point sources that have been placed at various ranges, azimuths, and altitudes relative to the LMA network. Statistical results are conveniently summarized in high-resolution, color-coded, error maps.

Koshak, William↗
NASA NTRS1990

On the Response of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager to the Marine Environment: Implications for Atmospheric Parameter Retrievals

A reasonably rigorous basis for understanding and extracting the physical information content of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) satellite images of the marine environment is provided. To this end, a comprehensive algebraic parameterization is developed for the response of the SSM/I to a set of nine atmospheric and ocean surface parameters. The brightness temperature model includes a closed-form approximation to microwave radiative transfer in a non-scattering atmosphere and fitted models for surface emission and scattering based on geometric optics calculations for the roughened sea surface. The combined model is empirically tuned using suitable sets of SSM/I data and coincident surface observations. The brightness temperature model is then used to examine the sensitivity of the SSM/I to realistic variations in the scene being observed and to evaluate the theoretical maximum precision of global SSM/I retrievals of integrated water vapor, integrated cloud liquid water, and surface wind speed. A general minimum-variance method for optimally retrieving geophysical parameters from multichannel brightness temperature measurements is outlined, and several global statistical constraints of the type required by this method are computed. Finally, a unified set of efficient statistical and semi-physical algorithms is presented for obtaining fields of surface wind speed, integrated water vapor, cloud liquid water, and precipitation from SSM/I brightness temperature data. Features include: a semi-physical method for retrieving integrated cloud liquid water at 15 km resolution and with rms errors as small as approximately 0.02 kg/sq m; a 3-channel statistical algorithm for integrated water vapor which was constructed so as to have improved linear response to water vapor and reduced sensitivity to precipitation; and two complementary indices of precipitation activity (based on 37 GHz attenuation and 85 GHz scattering, respectively), each of which are relatively insensitive to variations in other environmental parameters.

Petty, Grant W.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Constitutive Modeling of High-Temperature Flow Stress of Armor Steel in Ballistic Applications: A Comparative Study

Armox 500T is one of the armor grade steels extensively used as armor against bullet penetration in ballistic applications. In such applications, the material undergoes plastic deformation at large strain rates (10{sup 3} s{sup −1}) at temperatures of the order of 673-1373 K. In the present work, an attempt has been made to predict strain rate and temperature-dependent flow behavior of Armox 500T steel through physical-based model like modified Zerilli–Armstrong (M-ZA) and phenomenological-based models like Cowper Symonds (CS), modified Johnson–Cook (M-JC), Arrhenius (Arr.) and Khan–Huang–Liang (KHL) constitutive material model. Isothermal uniaxial compression tests at low strain rates (10{sup −3}-10{sup −1} s{sup −1}) and dynamic compression tests at high strain rates (600-3000 s{sup −1}) in the temperatures range of 673-1373 K have been carried out to determine constitutive material model parameters. In addition, an artificial neural network (ANN) model that works on multilayer perceptron (MLP) based back propagation neural network (BPNN) has also been developed. The results from all these models have been compared in terms of three statistical parameters namely correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and its standard deviation (Δ). The results revealed that M-JC model shows highest correlation coefficient and lowest average absolute error. Further, ANN model prediction has the highest accuracy with R = 0.999 and MAPE = 1.052.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

International challenge to predict the impact of radioxenon releases from medical isotope production on a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty sampling station

Abstract The International Monitoring System (IMS) is part of the verification regime for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty Organization (CTBTO). At entry-into-force, half of the 80 radionuclide stations will be able to measure concentrations of several radioactive xenon isotopes produced in nuclear explosions, and then the full network may be populated with xenon monitoring afterward (Bowyer et al., 2013). Fission-based production of 99Mo for medical purposes also releases radioxenon isotopes to the atmosphere (Saey, 2009). One of the ways to mitigate the effect of emissions from medical isotope production is the use of stack monitoring data, if it were available, so that the effect of radioactive xenon emissions could be subtracted from the effect from a presumed nuclear explosion, when detected at an IMS station location. To date, no studies have addressed the impacts the time resolution or data accuracy of stack monitoring data have on predicted concentrations at an IMS station location. Recently, participants from seven nations used atmospheric transport modeling to predict the time-history of 133Xe concentration measurements at an IMS station in Germany using stack monitoring data from a medical isotope production facility in Belgium. Participants received only stack monitoring data and used the atmospheric transport model and meteorological data of their choice. Some of the models predicted the highest measured concentrations quite well (a high composite statistical model comparison rank or a small mean square error with the measured values). The results suggest release data on a 15 min time spacing is best. The model comparison rank and ensemble analysis suggests that combining multiple models may provide more accurate predicted concentrations than any single model. Further research is needed to identify optimal methods for selecting ensemble members and those methods may depend on the specific transport problem. None of the submissions based only on the stack monitoring data predicted the small measured concentrations very well. The one submission that best predicted small concentrations also included releases from nuclear power plants. Modeling of sources by other nuclear facilities with smaller releases than medical isotope production facilities may be important in discriminating those releases from releases from a nuclear explosion.

133Xe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust error calibration for serial crystallography

Serial crystallography is an important technique with unique abilities to resolve enzymatic transition states, minimize radiation damage to sensitive metalloenzymes and perform de novo structure determination from micrometre-sized crystals. This technique requires the merging of data from thousands of crystals, making manual identification of errant crystals unfeasible. cctbx.xfel.merge uses filtering to remove problematic data. However, this process is imperfect, and data reduction must be robust to outliers. We add robustness to cctbx.xfel.merge at the step of uncertainty determination for reflection intensities. This step is a critical point for robustness because it is the first step where the data sets are considered as a whole, as opposed to individual lattices. Robustness is conferred by reformulating the error-calibration procedure to have fewer and less stringent statistical assumptions and incorporating the ability to down-weight low-quality lattices. We then apply this method to five macromolecular XFEL data sets and observe the improvements to each. The appropriateness of the intensity uncertainties is demonstrated through internal consistency. This is performed through theoretical CC 1/2 and I /σ relationships and by weighted second moments, which use Wilson's prior to connect intensity uncertainties with their expected distribution. This work presents new mathematical tools to analyze intensity statistics and demonstrates their effectiveness through the often underappreciated process of uncertainty analysis.

Mittan-Moreau, David W.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cross-polarization systematics due to Mizuguchi-Dragone condition breaking by a continuously rotating half-wave plate at prime focus in the Huan Tran telescope

Polarization modulation using a continuously rotating half-wave plate (HWP) is a promising technique to reduce both low-frequency noise and instrumental systematics for Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) polarization measurements targeting in ationary B-modes. Although a HWP is best placed sky-side of the telescope optics in order to minimize systematics, >0.5 meter aperture class telescopes must put the HWP elsewhere in the optics chain due to current fabrication limitations in the available HWP size. Polarbear is a ground-based CMB experiment installed on the 2.5m aperture off-axis Gregorian-Dragone type Huan Tran Telescope (HTT) designed to satisfy the Mizuguchi-Dragone condition. Polarbear-2 is a receiver that will be installed on a second HTT in 2018. Polarbear-2 is designed to have a larger field-of-view (FOV) and vastly increased sensitivity to the polarized CMB compared to Polarbear. From the third season of observations, Polarbear has installed a continuously rotating HWP at the spatially localized focus plane between the HTT primary and secondary re ectors which is an optimal location for minimizing the HWP diameter. The HWP's polarization angle re ection with respect to its birefringent axis will theoretically break the Mizuguchi-Dragone condition when placed between the two reflectors and increase cross-polarization systematics. In this study, we analyze how the Mizuguchi-Dragone condition is violated due to a HWP at this location. We then estimate the crosspolarization systematics of the HTT using physical optics simulations. We model an ideal HWP at various angles to estimate the effects of demodulation. We evaluate the increased cross-polarization as the Stokes Q-U mixing term using the Mueller Matrix formalism. It is calculated that this term creates a varying dipole beam pattern whose amplitude ranges from 1% at the center to 10% at the edge FOV pixels for Polarbear and potentially up to 20% for Polarbear-2. We also estimate the leakage of the E-mode into the B-mode angular power spectrum measurements due to this cross-polarization. We show that the cross-polarization systematic error leakage is sufficiently lower than the Polarbear-2 statistical uncertainty thanks to mitigations such as focal plane averaging and sky rotation. Currently for Polarbear-2 we are planning to place the HWP at Gregorian focus, but keeping the HWP at prime focus as a back-up solution in case that there are unforeseen telescope spatial and HWP material size constraints. Through this study we find that even though a HWP between the two reflectors will violate the Mizuguchi-Dragone condition, this HWP at prime focus will still have sufficiently low cross-polarization for Polarbear-2. The prime focus HWP is a potential configuration that can be applied to similar off-axis Gregorian-Dragone telescopes in order to minimize the required HWP diameter.

Takakura, Satoru↗
DOE OSTI2014

Harmonic analysis for the characterization and correction of geometric distortion in MRI

Purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is gaining widespread use in radiation therapy planning, patient setup verification, and real-time guidance of radiation delivery. Successful implementation of these technologies relies on the development of simple and efficient methods to characterize and monitor the geometric distortions arising due to system imperfections and gradient nonlinearities. To this end, the authors present the theory and validation of a novel harmonic approach to the quantification of system-related distortions in MRI. Methods: The theory of spatial encoding in MRI is applied to demonstrate that the 3D distortion vector field (DVF) is given by the solution of a second-order boundary value problem (BVP). This BVP is comprised of Laplace’s equation and a limited measurement of the distortion on the boundary of a specified region of interest (ROI). An analytical series expansion solving this BVP within a spherical ROI is obtained, and a statistical uncertainty analysis is performed to determine how random errors in the boundary measurements propagate to the ROI interior. This series expansion is then evaluated to obtain volumetric DVF mappings that are compared to reference data obtained on a 3 T full-body scanner. This validation is performed within two spheres of 20 cm diameter (one centered at the scanner origin and the other offset +3 cm along each of the transverse directions). Initially, a high-order mapping requiring measurements at 5810 boundary points is used. Then, after exploring the impact of the boundary sampling density and the effect of series truncation, a reduced-order mapping requiring measurements at 302 boundary points is evaluated. Results: The volumetric DVF mappings obtained from the harmonic analysis are in good agreement with the reference data. Following distortion correction using the high-order mapping, the authors estimate a reduction in the mean distortion magnitude from 0.86 to 0.42 mm and from 0.93 to 0.39 mm within the central and offset ROIs, respectively. In addition, the fraction of points with a distortion magnitude greater than 1 mm is reduced from 35.6% to 2.8% and from 40.4% to 1.5%, respectively. Similarly, following correction using the reduced-order mapping, the mean distortion magnitude reduces to 0.45–0.42 mm within the central and offset ROIs, and the fraction of points with a distortion magnitude greater than 1 mm is reduced to 2.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Conclusions: A novel harmonic approach to the characterization of system-related distortions in MRI is presented. This method permits a complete and accurate mapping of the DVF within a specified ROI using a limited measurement of the distortion on the ROI boundary. This technique eliminates the requirement to exhaustively sample the DVF at a dense 3D array of points, thereby permitting the design of simple, inexpensive phantoms that may incorporate additional modules for auxiliary quality assurance objectives.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

CV4Quantum

CV4Quantum is a statistical technique for reducing the sampling overhead in probabilistic error cancellation, which is an error mitigation technique used in quantum computing. CV4Quantum is based on the control variates method, which is a Monte Carlo variance reduction technique. This repository contains the code and data associated with a demonstration of CV4Quantum using simulation experiments.

Shyamsundar, Prasanth [Fermi National Accelerator ↗
DOE OSTI2014

Data Assimilation - Advances and Applications

This presentation provides an overview of data assimilation (model calibration) for complex computer experiments. Calibration refers to the process of probabilistically constraining uncertain physics/engineering model inputs to be consistent with observed experimental data. An initial probability distribution for these parameters is updated using the experimental information. Utilization of surrogate models and empirical adjustment for model form error in code calibration form the basis for the statistical methodology considered. The role of probabilistic code calibration in supporting code validation is discussed. Incorporation of model form uncertainty in rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) analyses is also addressed. Design criteria used within a batch sequential design algorithm are introduced for efficiently achieving predictive maturity and improved code calibration. Predictive maturity refers to obtaining stable predictive inference with calibrated computer codes. These approaches allow for augmentation of initial experiment designs for collecting new physical data. A standard framework for data assimilation is presented and techniques for updating the posterior distribution of the state variables based on particle filtering and the ensemble Kalman filter are introduced.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable, In-situ Data Clustering Data Analysis for Extreme Scale Scientific Computing (Final Report)

The objective of this project is to address challenges in the design and development of scalable in-situ data clustering and analytics algorithms and software. Our goal is to develop parallel software consisting of a set of spatio-temporal data clustering and anomaly detection functions, both of which are very important for large-scale analysis and have wide applicability for in-situ runs as well as post-processing analysis. Our design principles for in-situ analysis consider the following: (1) identify parts of the computation can be done close to the data within the nodes, while it is still in memory; (2) extract analysis components can (and should) be performed in remote staging and analysis nodes; (3) develop error-bound approximation methods for applications tolerable for small errors; (4) identify the type of derived distributions and statistics, for spatio-temporal data, that can be kept locally in order to both accelerate computations and meet energy constraints in subsequent iterations and phases; (5) use a self-describing data format so that data can be consistent and understood among local storage (memory and SSDs) and at staging and analysis nodes, thereby providing portability and flexibility; (6) develop service-oriented functions that can schedule in-situ and post-hoc analysis tasks based on the dynamic requirements of applications. Our development focus is to produce the parallel data analysis software/library that will be scalable, reusable, extensible, and generic for applications in different disciplines. The software will be able to run in-situ with the simulations as well as post-hoc analysis. This approach will satisfy many synergistic requirements for data intensive applications executed on data coming from instruments and experiments. In particular, the proposed multilevel approach is directly applicable to perform design tradeoffs for running part of the algorithms near the instruments and the rest on remote (analysis) systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementing machine learning methods on QICK hardware for qubit readout & control

Quantum readout and control is a fundamental aspect of quantum computing that requires accurate measurement of qubit states. Errors emerge in all stages, from initialization to readout, and identifying errors in post-processing necessitates resource-intensive statistical analysis. In our work, we use a lightweight fully-connected neural network (NN) to classify states of a transmon system with no prior processing. Our NN accelerator yields higher fidelities (92%) than the classical matched filter method (84%). By exploiting the natural parallelism of NNs and their placement near the source of data on field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), we can achieve ultra-low latency on the Quantum Instrumentation Control Kit (QICK). Integrating machine learning methods on QICK opens several pathways for efficient real-time processing of quantum circuits.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

A collection of sub-daily pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period with a focus on the "year without a summer" 1816

The eruption of Mount Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 is the largest documented volcanic eruption in history. It is associated with a large global cooling during the following year, felt particularly in parts of Europe and North America, where the year 1816 became known as the "year without a summer". This paper describes an effort made to collect surface meteorological observations from the early instrumental period, with a focus on the years of and immediately following the eruption (1815–1817). Although the collection aimed in particular at pressure observations, correspondent temperature observations were also recovered. Some of the series had already been described in the literature, but a large part of the data, recently digitised from original weather diaries and contemporary magazines and newspapers, is presented here for the first time. The collection puts together more than 50 sub-daily series from land observatories in Europe and North America and from ships in the tropics. The pressure observations have been corrected for temperature and gravity and reduced to mean sea level. Moreover, an additional statistical correction was applied to take into account common error sources in mercury barometers. To assess the reliability of the corrected data set, the variance in the pressure observations is compared with modern climatologies, and single observations are used for synoptic analyses of three case studies in Europe. All raw observations will be made available to the scientific community in the International Surface Pressure Databank.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

Some after-dinner reflections on system identification

The growth of the field of system identification is discussed along with changes in methodology which have taken place in recent years. The similarity between pattern recognition and system identification is pointed out, involving the modelling in the latter and the feature selection problem in the former. It is stated that once a model is formulated, including the disturbances and measurement errors, the parameter finding can be formulated as a statistical estimation problem. The various techniques and their application are discussed.

Balakrishnan, A. V.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The effects of transmitter/receiver clock time base instability on coherent communication system performance

The purpose of this paper is to present a model and associated analysis of the deleterious effects which both transmitter and receiver data clock time-base instability have on bit error probability. The types of time-base instability modeled and analyzed include bit jitter (epoch jitter), bit jitter rate (time interval jitter) and data asymmetry. The bit error probability is determined as a function of the statistical characteristics of the time-base instability, the data transition density, the signal-to-noise ratio in the bit rate bandwidth and the mechanizations of both the data bit detector and bit synchronizer. Numerical results are provided.

Chie, C. M.↗