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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

Development of ARCHER towards clinical use: modeling and simulation of Varian Linac for radiation therapy dose calculations - 25449

Monte Carlo particle transport methods are well recognized as the most accurate approach to dose calculations for radiation therapy treatment planning. However, the lengthy calculation time has prevented Monte Carlo methods from being applied to dose calculations in the planning of radiation therapy. Recently, the emerging parallel computing hardware accelerators, such as general-purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), have significantly boosted the performance of Monte Carlo codes. The accuracy of a clinical dose engine depends greatly on the accuracy of source term modeling and the methodology of dose calculations. Hence, in this study, an efficient and accurate source model of the Varian TrueBeam{sup R} Linac is developed and integrated with a fast photon-electron transport module of the recently developed high-performance Monte Carlo code, ARCHER. The validity of the source model and the particle transport physics are verified with established dose calculation codes such as EGSnrc and validated with experimental measurements. To demonstrate the capability of the platform in clinical applications, three clinical treatment plans (the lung, breast, and prostate) are simulated and analyzed. From the perspective of performance, the entire simulation of each clinical plan, starting from the source modeling to the end of particle transport within the patient phantom, can be finished in less than one minute using a single Titan X GPU card with 1% statistical error. In comparison, the same cases take the EGSnrc code hundreds of CPU hours to finish. The results suggest that this new version of ARCHER code has been successfully developed and tested as a clinically deployable dose engine for external photon beam IMRT plans in the clinical setting. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Turbulent nonpremixed cool flames: Experimental measurements, Direct Numerical Simulation, and manifold-based combustion modeling

Turbulence, low-temperature chemistry, and their interactions in the form of turbulent cool flames are critical to understanding and improving advanced engines. Design of such engines requires tractable simulations which in turn necessitate turbulent combustion models that can account for cool flames. While manifold-based turbulent combustion models are an attractive option for hot flames, their applicability to cool flames is not yet fully understood. This is partially due to the lack of turbulent cool flame experiments, which has made model validation difficult. This work addresses these points with a combined experimental and computational investigation of turbulent nonpremixed dimethyl ether cool flames. First, a Co-flow Axisymmetric Reactor-Assisted Turbulent (CARAT) burner is developed and tested. Turbulent cool flames are studied using the formaldehyde planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF), acetone PLIF, and planar Rayleigh scattering techniques. The acetone PLIF signals are converted into mixture fraction values, and measurements of time-averaged temperature are derived from the Rayleigh scattering signals by taking advantage of the similarities between cool flames and unburned mixtures. Second, a Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) of the CARAT burner is conducted. The flame is shown to be sensitive to thermal boundary conditions such that the stabilization method is dependent on a 10 K change in inlet temperature. Comparisons of first- and second-order statistics of temperature, mixture fraction, and formaldehyde between the DNS and experiment show good agreement. The validity of manifold-based turbulent combustion models in turbulent cool flames is then explored by first studying the effective Lewis numbers in the flame using a local differential diffusion parameter analysis. Turbulent cool flames are shown to have effective unity Lewis number transport even at a much lower Reynolds number than typically required for hot flames. Good agreement is shown for temperature and formaldehyde between DNS conditional means and one-dimensional nonpremixed flame solutions. Additionally, the motion of the cool flame in mixture fraction space is shown to be well described by one-dimensional nonpremixed flame solutions. These points indicate that the fundamental physics of turbulent cool flames are analogous to turbulent hot flames, implying that the same reduced-order manifold-based modeling approaches utilized for turbulent hot flames can be utilized for turbulent cool flames.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Expedited Model Building Method for Rocket Nozzle Side Loading

Statistical analysis of test data is currently the preferred method of creating models for uncharacterized side loading in rocket nozzles. However, statistical analysis requires multiple data sets to be reliable; getting these sets requires building and testing multiple rocket motors, which is not feasible given the incredible time and cost required to do so. By using a combination of geometry, simplified finite element analysis (FEA) analogs, and algebra we can create a limited predictive model from only one test data set. Once created, the model requires only the input from one strain gauge located at each yaw and pitch attachment bracket for the actuation system. This process is not computationally intensive, therefore saving an abundance of time and budget over using full 3D FEA models to develop a similar predictive model. To develop the model, conversion factors between the strain at the gauge locations and corresponding actuator load is derived from the data. These conversion factors are used to create a “conversion ellipse” that bounds the constitutive properties of the nozzle as one lumped factor. Using a 2D cross-sectional analog of the nozzle exit plane, we create a function that allows us to determine the azimuthal location of the unexpected load based on the ratio between yaw and pitch strain readings. Combining this with the “conversion ellipse” yields a function that given the strain reading outputs an induced actuator load, regardless of the azimuthal location of the unexpected load. As previously mentioned, this predictive model is limited in its application as there is inaccuracy introduced by the use of data by only one test as well as simplifying assumptions. This approach makes a useful tool to quickly determine whether uncharacterized actuator loading events can damage actuation systems or induce loading that exceeds design limits.

Seetha A Kolli↗

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗

Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?

Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of Radiation Doses to U.S. Military Test Participants from Nuclear Testing: A Comparison of Historical Film-Badge Measurements, Dose Reconstruction and Retrospective Biodosimetry

Retrospective radiation dose estimations, whether based on physical or biological measurements, or on theoretical dose reconstruction, are limited in their precision and reliability, particularly for exposures that occurred many decades ago. Here, we studied living U.S. military test participants, believed to have received high-dose radiation exposures during nuclear testing-related activities approximately six decades ago, with two primary goals in mind. The first was to compare three different approaches of assessing past radiation exposures: 1. Historical personnel monitoring data alone; 2. Dose reconstruction based on varying levels of completeness of individual information, which can include film badge data; and 3. Retrospective biodosimetry using chromosome aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes. The second goal was to use the collected data to make the best possible estimates of bone marrow dose received by a group with the highest military recorded radiation doses of any currently living military test participants. Six nuclear test participants studied had been on Rongerik Atoll during the 1954 CASTLE Bravo nuclear test. Another six were present at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and/or Pacific Proving Ground (PPG) and were believed to have received relatively high-dose exposures at those locations. All were interviewed, and all provided a blood sample for cytogenetic analysis. Military dose records for each test participant, as recorded in the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Nuclear Test Review and Information System, were used as the basis for historical film badge records and provided exposure scenario information to estimate dose via dose reconstruction. Dose to bone marrow was also estimated utilizing directional genomic hybridization (dGH) for high-resolution detection of radiation-induced chromosomal translocations and inversions, the latter being demonstrated for the first time for the purpose of retrospective biodosimetry. As the true dose for each test participant is not known these many decades after exposure, this study gauged the congruence of different methods by assessing the degree of correlation and degree of systematic differences. Overall, the best agreement between methods, defined by statistically significant correlations and small systematic differences, was between doses estimated by a dose reconstruction methodology that exploited all the available individual detail and the biodosimetry methodology derived from a weighted average dose determined from chromosomal translocation and inversion rates. Employing such a strategy, we found that the Rongerik veterans who participated in this study appear to have received, on average, bone marrow equivalent doses on the order of 300–400 mSv, while the NTS/ PPG participants appear to have received approximately 250–300 mSv. The results show that even for nuclear events that occurred six decades in the past, biological signatures of exposure are still present, and when taken together, chromosomal translocations and inversions can serve as reliable retrospective biodosimeters, particularly on a group-average basis, when doses received are greater than statistically-determined detection limits for the biological assays used.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Dark energy survey year 3 results: Cosmology with peaks using an emulator approach

ABSTRACT We constrain the matter density Ωm and the amplitude of density fluctuations σ8 within the ΛCDM cosmological model with shear peak statistics and angular convergence power spectra using mass maps constructed from the first three years of data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). We use tomographic shear peak statistics, including cross-peaks: peak counts calculated on maps created by taking a harmonic space product of the convergence of two tomographic redshift bins. Our analysis follows a forward-modelling scheme to create a likelihood of these statistics using N-body simulations, using a Gaussian process emulator. We take into account the uncertainty from the remaining, largely unconstrained ΛCDM parameters (Ωb, ns, and h). We include the following lensing systematics: multiplicative shear bias, photometric redshift uncertainty, and galaxy intrinsic alignment. Stringent scale cuts are applied to avoid biases from unmodelled baryonic physics. We find that the additional non-Gaussian information leads to a tightening of the constraints on the structure growth parameter yielding $S_8~\equiv ~\sigma _8\sqrt{\Omega _{\mathrm{m}}/0.3}~=~0.797_{-0.013}^{+0.015}$ (68 per cent confidence limits), with a precision of 1.8 per cent, an improvement of 38 per cent compared to the angular power spectra only case. The results obtained with the angular power spectra and peak counts are found to be in agreement with each other and no significant difference in S8 is recorded. We find a mild tension of $1.5 \, \sigma$ between our study and the results from Planck 2018, with our analysis yielding a lower S8. Furthermore, we observe that the combination of angular power spectra and tomographic peak counts breaks the degeneracy between galaxy intrinsic alignment AIA and S8, improving cosmological constraints. We run a suite of tests concluding that our results are robust and consistent with the results from other studies using DES Y3 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Greedy emulators for nuclear two-body scattering

Applications of reduced basis method emulators are increasing in low-energy nuclear physics because they enable fast and accurate sampling of high-fidelity calculations, enabling robust uncertainty quantification. Here, in this paper, we develop, implement, and test two model-driven emulators based on the (Petrov-)Galerkin projection using the prototypical test case of two-body scattering with the Minnesota potential and a more realistic local chiral potential. The high-fidelity scattering equations are solved with the matrix Numerov method, a reformulation of the popular Numerov recurrence relation for solving special second-order differential equations as a linear system of coupled equations. A novel error estimator based on reduced-space residuals is applied to an active learning approach (a greedy algorithm) to choosing training samples (“snapshots”) for the emulator and contrasted with a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach. Both approaches allow for computationally efficient offline-online decompositions, but the greedy approach requires many fewer snapshot calculations. These developments set the groundwork for emulating scattering observables based on chiral nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions and optical models, where computational speed-ups are necessary for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our emulators and error estimators are widely applicable to linear systems.

Bayesian methods↗

Predicting carcinogenicity of diverse chemicals using probabilistic neural network modeling approaches

Robust global models capable of discriminating positive and non-positive carcinogens; and predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals in rodents were developed. The dataset of 834 structurally diverse chemicals extracted from Carcinogenic Potency Database (CPDB) was used which contained 466 positive and 368 non-positive carcinogens. Twelve non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals and nonlinearity in the data were evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index and Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman statistics. Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the carcinogenicity end point in rat. Validation of the models was performed using the internal and external procedures employing a wide series of statistical checks. PNN constructed using five descriptors rendered classification accuracy of 92.09% in complete rat data. The PNN model rendered classification accuracies of 91.77%, 80.70% and 92.08% in mouse, hamster and pesticide data, respectively. The GRNN constructed with nine descriptors yielded correlation coefficient of 0.896 between the measured and predicted carcinogenic potency with mean squared error (MSE) of 0.44 in complete rat data. The rat carcinogenicity model (GRNN) applied to the mouse and hamster data yielded correlation coefficient and MSE of 0.758, 0.71 and 0.760, 0.46, respectively. The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals. Both the PNN and GRNN (inter-species) models constructed here can be useful tools in predicting the carcinogenicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. - Graphical abstract: Figure (a) shows classification accuracies (positive and non-positive carcinogens) in rat, mouse, hamster, and pesticide data yielded by optimal PNN model. Figure (b) shows generalization and predictive abilities of the interspecies GRNN model to predict the carcinogenic potency of diverse chemicals. - Highlights: • Global robust models constructed for carcinogenicity prediction of diverse chemicals. • Tanimoto/BDS test revealed structural diversity of chemicals and nonlinearity in data. • PNN/GRNN successfully predicted carcinogenicity/carcinogenic potency of chemicals. • Developed interspecies PNN/GRNN models for carcinogenicity prediction. • Proposed models can be used as tool to predict carcinogenicity of new chemicals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A mathematical and numerical framework for the analysis of compressible thermal convection in gases at very high temperatures

The relevance of non-equilibrium phenomena, nonlinear behavior, gravitational effects and fluid compressibility in a wide range of problems related to high-temperature gas-dynamics, especially in thermal, mechanical and nuclear engineering, calls for a concerted approach using the tools of the kinetic theory of gases, statistical physics, quantum mechanics, thermodynamics and mathematical modeling in synergy with advanced numerical strategies for the solution of the Navier–Stokes equations. The reason behind such a need is that in many instances of relevance in this field one witnesses a departure from canonical models and the resulting inadequacy of standard CFD approaches, especially those traditionally used to deal with thermal (buoyancy) convection problems. Starting from microscopic considerations and typical concepts of molecular dynamics, passing through the Boltzmann equation and its known solutions, we show how it is possible to remove past assumptions and elaborate an algorithm capable of targeting the broadest range of applications. Moving beyond the Boussinesq approximation, the Sutherland law and the principle of energy equipartition, the resulting method allows most of the fluid properties (density, viscosity, thermal conductivity, heat capacity and diffusivity, etc.) to be derived in a rational and natural way while keeping empirical contamination to the minimum. Special attention is deserved as well to the well-known pressure issue. With the application of the socalled multiple pressure variables concept and a projection-like numerical approach, difficulties with such a term in the momentum equation are circumvented by allowing the hydrodynamic pressure to decouple from its thermodynamic counterpart. The final result is a flexible and modular framework that on the one hand is able to account for all the molecule (translational, rotational and vibrational) degrees of freedom and their effective excitation, and on the other hand can guarantee adequate interplay between molecular and macroscopic-level entities and processes. Performances are demonstrated by computing some incompressible and compressible benchmark test cases for thermal (gravitational) convection, which are then extended to the high-temperature regime taking advantage of the newly developed features.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Raman Spectroscopy for the On Line Analysis of Oxidation States of Oxygen Carrier Particles

The need for cleaner energy systems, including CO 2 capture technologies, is driving the current development of new combustion approaches such as chemical looping combustion (CLC). This process is based on using oxygen carrier particles (OCPs) such as iron oxides, copper oxides, calcium sulfates, etc. to provide the oxygen for the combustion process. In order to optimize the overall process performance, it is critical that the properties of the oxygen carriers are well-defined and maintained for their specific purpose during the different stages of the CLC process. One of the critical properties of the oxygen carrier is its oxidation state (e.g., content of Fe 2 O 3 vs. Fe 3 O 4 ) as it affects the fundamental operation of the CLC process. Unfortunately, the ability to make on-line measurements of the oxidation state of oxygen carriers is lacking and new sensors need to be developed. Our goal is to develop a sensor for the on-line analysis of the oxidation state of oxygen carrier particles and to demonstrate its feasibility. Oxygen carrier particles (OCPs) of interest include iron oxides, copper oxides, and calcium sulfate, with particle sizes typically less than 0.5 mm diameter. The expected operating conditions of the sensor include OCP temperatures in the range of 800 °C to 1000 °C, and pressures of about 10 atm. The expected results are to be of a statistical nature, providing relative concentrations of the different oxidation states. These requirements make a strong case for using non-contact, stand-off, pulsed Raman spectroscopy as a sensor for the high-temperature on-line analysis of oxygen carrier particles. In order to achieve our goal, we have set up and tested a pulsed Raman spectroscopy system in combination with a pressurized high-temperature sample chamber, and have taking initial Raman spectra of various materials at high temperature. We are now in the process of optimizing the operating parameters such as laser wavelength, laser intensity, collection optic design, focal spot size, data acquisition, etc. We will also develop an analysis procedure for the interpretation of the Raman spectra. Typical Raman spectra consist of a convolution of background signal and multiple individual spectra. In order to extract relevant information such as the concentration ratio of a material in different oxidation states, we need to process (background subtraction, deconvolution, fitting, etc.) the measured data. In addition, statistical modeling and multivariate calibration need to be performed to correctly analyze the Raman spectra.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

An optimal FFT-based anisotropic power spectrum estimator

Measurements of line-of-sight dependent clustering via the galaxy power spectrum's multipole moments constitute a powerful tool for testing theoretical models in large-scale structure. Recent work shows that this measurement, including a moving line-of-sight, can be accelerated using Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs) by decomposing the Legendre polynomials into products of Cartesian vectors. Here, we present a faster, optimal means of using FFTs for this measurement. We avoid redundancy present in the Cartesian decomposition by using a spherical harmonic decomposition of the Legendre polynomials. With this method, a given multipole of order ℓ requires only 2ℓ+1 FFTs rather than the (ℓ+1)(ℓ+2)/2 FFTs of the Cartesian approach. For the hexadecapole (ℓ = 4), this translates to 40% fewer FFTs, with increased savings for higher ℓ. The reduction in wall-clock time enables the calculation of finely-binned wedges in P ( k ,μ), obtained by computing multipoles up to a large ℓ{sub max} and combining them. This transformation has a number of advantages. We demonstrate that by using non-uniform bins in μ, we can isolate plane-of-sky (angular) systematics to a narrow bin at 0μ ≅ while eliminating the contamination from all other bins. We also show that the covariance matrix of clustering wedges binned uniformly in μ becomes ill-conditioned when combining multipoles up to large values of ℓ{sub max}, but that the problem can be avoided with non-uniform binning. As an example, we present results using ℓ{sub max}=16, for which our procedure requires a factor of 3.4 fewer FFTs than the Cartesian method, while removing the first μ bin leads only to a 7% increase in statistical error on f σ{sub 8}, as compared to a 54% increase with ℓ{sub max}=4.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Study of Penalty Function Methods for Constraint Handling with Genetic Algorithm

COMETBOARDS (Comparative Evaluation Testbed of Optimization and Analysis Routines for Design of Structures) is a design optimization test bed that can evaluate the performance of several different optimization algorithms. A few of these optimization algorithms are the sequence of unconstrained minimization techniques (SUMT), sequential linear programming (SLP) and the sequential quadratic programming techniques (SQP). A genetic algorithm (GA) is a search technique that is based on the principles of natural selection or "survival of the fittest". Instead of using gradient information, the GA uses the objective function directly in the search. The GA searches the solution space by maintaining a population of potential solutions. Then, using evolving operations such as recombination, mutation and selection, the GA creates successive generations of solutions that will evolve and take on the positive characteristics of their parents and thus gradually approach optimal or near-optimal solutions. By using the objective function directly in the search, genetic algorithms can be effectively applied in non-convex, highly nonlinear, complex problems. The genetic algorithm is not guaranteed to find the global optimum, but it is less likely to get trapped at a local optimum than traditional gradient-based search methods when the objective function is not smooth and generally well behaved. The purpose of this research is to assist in the integration of genetic algorithm (GA) into COMETBOARDS. COMETBOARDS cast the design of structures as a constrained nonlinear optimization problem. One method used to solve constrained optimization problem with a GA to convert the constrained optimization problem into an unconstrained optimization problem by developing a penalty function that penalizes infeasible solutions. There have been several suggested penalty function in the literature each with there own strengths and weaknesses. A statistical analysis of some suggested penalty functions is performed in this study. Also, a response surface approach to robust design is used to develop a new penalty function approach. This new penalty function approach is then compared with the other existing penalty functions.

Ortiz, Francisco↗

Charging Experiments and Filtration Testing on Facemask Materials: Towards Goals of Full Performance Restoration of Used N95 Masks and Enhancement of Common-Fabric Facemasks

Different techniques have been developed for sanitizing N95 masks while retaining whatever charge remains on them. However, these sanitizing methods do not address the fact that the electrical charge, filtration efficacy, and breathability of such masks may be expected to degrade during long-term use based on mechanisms known in the literature. In this study, approaches to electrically (re)charging facemask filter materials were explored in response to the COVID-19 induced shortage of N95 masks. The effort consisted of charging experiments followed by filtration testing conducted at the coupon level during a month-long period (May 2020). The main focus of the work was to develop a recharging technique which could eventually be adapted and used as part of a broader full-performance restoration process for used N95 masks, e.g., which might employ simple washing by alcohol or soapy water as a preceding step for sanitization and declogging. Most tested coupons were therefore nonwoven meltblown fibrous polypropylene (PP) filter media extracted from decades old N95 masks. Keeping in mind commonly used cloth facemasks, limited trials were also performed with some commercially available fabrics. Charging was done at elevated temperature and was followed by cooling to freeze in the applied charges produced from corona discharges using different electrode configurations and parameter combinations, or from triboelectric rubbing. Charging was also focused on using potentially scalable equipment, e.g., Van de Graaff generators or consumer ionic hair products. Some degree of success was achieved with one of the fabrics and the PP filter media which was first purposefully discharged to have typical filtration efficiency (FE) of ~35%. Numerous attempts at corona charging discharged media resulted in filtration efficiency (FE) ≥ 80 – 85%. Some measure of charge robustness was also established via stable performance during loading testing. However, results where FE ≥ 90% were not reliably repeatable and no results met the FE ≥ 95% goal due to shortcomings of the charging process. The best three trials for PP media statistically met the FE ≥ 90% criteria, amounted to a small percentage of the trials relying on an ionic hair dryer, and are attributed to good embedding of charges via aerodynamic force. Triboelectric charging significantly enhanced the viability of one of the polyester fabrics –measured FE increased from 19% up to 46% while maintaining a reasonably low pressure drop.

N95↗

A priori and a posteriori investigations for developing large eddy simulations of multi-species turbulent mixing under high-pressure conditions

A Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) database was created representing mixing of species under high-pressure conditions. The configuration considered is that of a temporally evolving mixing layer. The database was examined and analyzed for the purpose of modeling some of the unclosed terms that appear in the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) equations. Several metrics are used to understand the LES modeling requirements. First, a statistical analysis of the DNS-database large-scale flow structures was performed to provide a metric for probing the accuracy of the proposed LES models as the flow fields obtained from accurate LESs should contain structures of morphology statistically similar to those observed in the filtered-and-coarsened DNS (FC-DNS) fields. To characterize the morphology of the large-scales structures, the Minkowski functionals of the iso-surfaces were evaluated for two different fields: the second-invariant of the rate of deformation tensor and the irreversible entropy production rate. To remove the presence of the small flow scales, both of these fields were computed using the FC-DNS solutions. It was found that the large-scale structures of the irreversible entropy production rate exhibit higher morphological complexity than those of the second invariant of the rate of deformation tensor, indicating that the burden of modeling will be on recovering the thermodynamic fields. Second, to evaluate the physical effects which must be modeled at the subfilter scale, an a priori analysis was conducted. This a priori analysis, conducted in the coarse-grid LES regime, revealed that standard closures for the filtered pressure, the filtered heat flux, and the filtered species mass fluxes, in which a filtered function of a variable is equal to the function of the filtered variable, may no longer be valid for the high-pressure flows considered in this study. The terms requiring modeling are the filtered pressure, the filtered heat flux, the filtered pressure work, and the filtered species mass fluxes. Improved models were developed based on a scale-similarity approach and were found to perform considerably better than the classical ones. These improved models were also assessed in an a posteriori study. Different combinations of the standard models and the improved ones were tested. At the relatively small Reynolds numbers achievable in DNS and at the relatively small filter widths used here, the standard models for the filtered pressure, the filtered heat flux, and the filtered species fluxes were found to yield accurate results for the morphology of the large-scale structures present in the flow. Analysis of the temporal evolution of several volume-averaged quantities representative of the mixing layer growth, and of the cross-stream variation of homogeneous-plane averages and second-order correlations, as well as of visualizations, indicated that the models performed equivalently for the conditions of the simulations. The expectation is that at the much larger Reynolds numbers and much larger filter widths used in practical applications, the improved models will have much more accurate performance than the standard one.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Monitoring System for Storm Readiness and Recovery of Test Facilities: Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Approach

Severe weather events are likely occurrences on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. It is important to rapidly diagnose and mitigate the effects of storms on Stennis Space Center's rocket engine test complex to avoid delays to critical test article programs, reduce costs, and maintain safety. An Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) approach and technologies are employed to integrate environmental (weather) monitoring, structural modeling, and the suite of available facility instrumentation to provide information for readiness before storms, rapid initial damage assessment to guide mitigation planning, and then support on-going assurance as repairs are effected and finally support recertification. The system is denominated Katrina Storm Monitoring System (KStorMS). Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) describes a comprehensive set of capabilities that provide insight into the behavior the health of a system. Knowing the status of a system allows decision makers to effectively plan and execute their mission. For example, early insight into component degradation and impending failures provides more time to develop work around strategies and more effectively plan for maintenance. Failures of system elements generally occur over time. Information extracted from sensor data, combined with system-wide knowledge bases and methods for information extraction and fusion, inference, and decision making, can be used to detect incipient failures. If failures do occur, it is critical to detect and isolate them, and suggest an appropriate course of action. ISHM enables determining the condition (health) of every element in a complex system-of-systems or SoS (detect anomalies, diagnose causes, predict future anomalies), and provide data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) to control systems for safe and effective operation. ISHM capability is achieved by using a wide range of technologies that enable anomaly detection, diagnostics, prognostics, and advise for control: (1) anomaly detection algorithms and strategies, (2) fusion of DIaK for anomaly detection (model-based, numerical, statistical, empirical, expert-based, qualitative, etc.), (3) diagnostics/prognostics strategies and methods, (4) user interface, (5) advanced control strategies, (6) integration architectures/frameworks, (7) embedding of intelligence. Many of these technologies are mature, and they are being used in the KStorMS. The paper will describe the design, implementation, and operation of the KStorMS; and discuss further evolution to support other needs such as condition-based maintenance (CBM).

Figueroa, Fernando↗

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

climate↗

Testing higher-order Lagrangian perturbation theory against numerical simulation. 1: Pancake models

We present results showing an improvement of the accuracy of perturbation theory as applied to cosmological structure formation for a useful range of quasi-linear scales. The Lagrangian theory of gravitational instability of an Einstein-de Sitter dust cosmogony investigated and solved up to the third order is compared with numerical simulations. In this paper we study the dynamics of pancake models as a first step. In previous work the accuracy of several analytical approximations for the modeling of large-scale structure in the mildly non-linear regime was analyzed in the same way, allowing for direct comparison of the accuracy of various approximations. In particular, the Zel'dovich approximation (hereafter ZA) as a subclass of the first-order Lagrangian perturbation solutions was found to provide an excellent approximation to the density field in the mildly non-linear regime (i.e. up to a linear r.m.s. density contrast of sigma is approximately 2). The performance of ZA in hierarchical clustering models can be greatly improved by truncating the initial power spectrum (smoothing the initial data). We here explore whether this approximation can be further improved with higher-order corrections in the displacement mapping from homogeneity. We study a single pancake model (truncated power-spectrum with power-spectrum with power-index n = -1) using cross-correlation statistics employed in previous work. We found that for all statistical methods used the higher-order corrections improve the results obtained for the first-order solution up to the stage when sigma (linear theory) is approximately 1. While this improvement can be seen for all spatial scales, later stages retain this feature only above a certain scale which is increasing with time. However, third-order is not much improvement over second-order at any stage. The total breakdown of the perturbation approach is observed at the stage, where sigma (linear theory) is approximately 2, which corresponds to the onset of hierarchical clustering. This success is found at a considerable higher non-linearity than is usual for perturbation theory. Whether a truncation of the initial power-spectrum in hierarchical models retains this improvement will be analyzed in a forthcoming work.

Buchert, T.↗