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At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Detection of chaotic determinism in time series from randomly forced maps

Time series from biological system often display fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". Despite this effort, it has been difficult to establish the presence of chaos in time series from biological sytems. The output from a biological system is probably the result of both its internal dynamics, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes, i.e., a positive characteristic exponent that leads to sensitivity to initial conditions. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2020

Review: Strategies for Using Satellite-Based Products in Modeling PM2.5 and Short-Term Pollution Episodes

Short-term air pollution episodes motivate improved understanding of the association between air pollution and acute morbidity and mortality episodes, and triggers required mitigation plans. A variety of methods have been employed to estimate exposure to air pollution episodes, including GIS-based dispersion models, interpolation between sparse monitoring sites, land-use regression models, optimization models, line- or area-dispersion plume models, and models using information from imaging satellites, often including land-use and meteorological variables. There has been increasing use of satellite-borne aerosol products for assessing short-term air quality events. They provide better spatial coverage, but currently at the price of low temporal coverage and rather crude spatial resolution. This brief review of using satellite data for modeling short-term air quality and pollution events. The review can be pursued as a practical guide for modeling air quality with satellite-based products, as it includes important questions that should be considered in both the study design as well as the model development stages. Progress in this field is detailed and includes published models and their use in environmental and health studies. Both current and future satellite-borne capabilities are covered. It also provides links to access and download relevant datasets and some R code for data processing and modeling.

Meytar Sorek-Hamer↗
NASA NTRS2018

Learning Model Structural Uncertainty with Gaussian Processes

The advent of commercially available quantum computers has marked the beginning of quantum computing as a reality. Both quantum gate and annealing computers have been released by major computer hardware companies. In this work, the D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealing computer housed at the NASA Advanced Systems computational facility is investigated to accelerate Machine Learning (ML) for image registration. NASA collects large amounts of images over the globe remotely using space-based monitoring. Images of a fixed areas of the land surface are taken over time. Due to the orbit of the sensors, the viewing angles deviate slightly, and it is necessary to align or register the images precisely to create image time series over the land surface. Unaligned images can lead to substantial analysis errors. These time-series are then used in modeling Earth Systems models such as hydrological, weather, and carbon monitoring models. In this work, we consider the Moderate Resolution Image Spectrometer (MODIS) data collected by the NASA's terra satellite. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is a natural fit for ML modelling of images. Several successes have been reported using machine learning related to image processing. We investigate the use of ML to register MODIS images. ANNs are investigated in combination with a Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) as an auto-encoder. We will present results showing the accuracy and efficiency of this approach.The D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealer samples the ground-state wave-function of a spin-Ising systems with quadratic interactions between qubits and a Chimera connectivity. The system sits in a ~15 mK thermal bath. One can think of the system as being placed in the ground state initially and subject to thermal excitations governed by Boltzmann statistics. If this is assumed true, one can use the statistics from the D-Wave 2XTM to train RBMs. Generating statistics for training Boltzmann machines is an NP-hard problem and constitutes the largest compute cost. We investigate the use of the D-Wave 2XTM to accelerate the training of the RBMs in our ANNs and report on the results.

Kouatchou, Jules↗
NASA NTRS1978

Computer modeling of dendritic web growth processes and characterization of the material

High area throughput rate will be required for the economical production of silicon dendritic web for solar cells. Web width depends largely on the temperature distribution on the melt surface while growth speed is controlled by the dissipation of the latent heat of fusion. Thermal models were developed to investigate each of these aspects, and were used to engineer the design of laboratory equipment capable of producing crystals over 4 cm wide; growth speeds up to 10 cm/min were achieved. The web crystals were characterized by resistivity, lifetime and etch pit density data as well as by detailed solar cell I-V data. Solar cells ranged in efficiency from about 10 to 14.5% (AM-1) depending on growth conditions. Cells with lower efficiency displayed lowered bulk lifetime believed to be due to surface contamination.

Seidensticker, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Modeling Personnel Turnover in the Parametric Organization

A primary issue in organizing a new parametric cost analysis function is to determine the skill mix and number of personnel required. The skill mix can be obtained by a functional decomposition of the tasks required within the organization and a matrixed correlation with educational or experience backgrounds. The number of personnel is a function of the skills required to cover all tasks, personnel skill background and cross training, the intensity of the workload for each task, migration through various tasks by personnel along a career path, personnel hiring limitations imposed by management and the applicant marketplace, personnel training limitations imposed by management and personnel capability, and the rate at which personnel leave the organization for whatever reason. Faced with the task of relating all of these organizational facets in order to grow a parametric cost analysis (PCA) organization from scratch, it was decided that a dynamic model was required in order to account for the obvious dynamics of the forming organization. The challenge was to create such a simple model which would be credible during all phases of organizational development. The model development process was broken down into the activities of determining the tasks required for PCA, determining the skills required for each PCA task, determining the skills available in the applicant marketplace, determining the structure of the dynamic model, implementing the dynamic model, and testing the dynamic model.

Dean, Edwin B.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Physical Models of Layered Polar Firn Brightness Temperatures from 0.5 to 2 GHz

We investigate physical effects influencing 0.5-2 GHz brightness temperatures of layered polar firn to support the Ultra Wide Band Software Defined Radiometer (UWBRAD) experiment to be conducted in Greenland and in Antarctica. We find that because ice particle grain sizes are very small compared to the 0.5-2 GHz wavelengths, volume scattering effects are small. Variations in firn density over cm- to m-length scales, however, cause significant effects. Both incoherent and coherent models are used to examine these effects. Incoherent models include a 'cloud model' that neglects any reflections internal to the ice sheet, and the DMRT-ML and MEMLS radiative transfer codes that are publicly available. The coherent model is based on the layered medium implementation of the fluctuation dissipation theorem for thermal microwave radiation from a medium having a nonuniform temperature. Density profiles are modeled using a stochastic approach, and model predictions are averaged over a large number of realizations to take into account an averaging over the radiometer footprint. Density profiles are described by combining a smooth average density profile with a spatially correlated random process to model density fluctuations. It is shown that coherent model results after ensemble averaging depend on the correlation lengths of the vertical density fluctuations. If the correlation length is moderate or long compared with the wavelength (approximately 0.6x longer or greater for Gaussian correlation function without regard for layer thinning due to compaction), coherent and incoherent model results are similar (within approximately 1 K). However, when the correlation length is short compared to the wavelength, coherent model results are significantly different from the incoherent model by several tens of kelvins. For a 10-cm correlation length, the differences are significant between 0.5 and 1.1 GHz, and less for 1.1-2 GHz. Model results are shown to be able to match the v-pol SMOS data closely and predict the h-pol data for small observation angles.

layered polar firn emission↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbonfluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle,we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global VegetationModels (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduceseasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to bothtotal productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models representphenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in drylandecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in bothmoisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure ofexisting phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) andgross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized modelparameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, wemodified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation ofgrass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance wereassociated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to bettercapture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R2=0.75) and gross primary productivity (R2=0.84), thoughits ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new modelalso resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findingsdemonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecastclimate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model Phenology Parameter optimization E↗
NASA NTRS2020

The “Gearamid” Model: Transforming NASA Langley’s Role in the Aerospace Technology Ecosystem

NASA’s operating environment is evolving: numerous new emerging technologies are converging to create breakthrough solutions, many nontraditional players are partnering to create those solutions, and a diverse array of new public-private funding models are being employed. A team at NASA’s Langley Research Center (LaRC) developed a model to describe the challenges that must be addressed for an emerging breakthrough technology to penetrate the appropriate market sector, and how all the players in the relevant ecosystem can collaborate to accelerate the market infusion process. This model, which the team dubbed the “Gearamid,” originated from a narrower study to determine what LaRC should do to capitalize on and advance autonomous technology as a “game changer” in the civil aerospace domain. The elements in the original version of the Gearamid depict the various challenges that need to be addressed as an autonomous technology proceeds from initial development to market infusion. In addition, the Gearamid indicates the “actors” best suited to address each challenge element. The study team noted that all challenge elements in the Gearamid must be worked concurrently to assure successful infusion of autonomous solutions. The team also found that NASA expertise naturally positions Agency organizations—including LaRC—to lead contributions that address certain challenge elements and to play a supplemental role in other areas where entities external to NASA are actively working and investing to solve challenges. Furthermore, the team concluded that NASA can play a leadership role in coordinating efforts of the diverse entities across the civil aerospace community. After determining the center’s optimal role in the autonomous technology development ecosystem, the study team then extrapolated the Gearamid model for autonomous technologies into a broader, more general model depicting the challenge elements that must be overcome to develop and infuse any emerging technology. LaRC has embraced the Gearamid model and is using it to drive changes that will transform the center and allow it to function optimally in the evolving landscape. Given LaRC’s successes, the study team suggests that other organizations may also be able to use the Gearamid model to inform future planning/strategy efforts.

Jill M Marlowe↗
NASA NTRS2016

Integration Tests of the 4 kW-class High Voltage Hall Accelerator Power Processing Unit with the HiVHAc and the SPT-140 Hall Effect Thrusters

NASAs Science Mission Directorate is sponsoring the development of a 4 kW-class Hall propulsion system for implementation in NASA science and exploration missions. The main components of the system include the High Voltage Hall Accelerator (HiVHAc), an engineering model power processing unit (PPU) developed by Colorado Power Electronics, and a xenon flow control module (XFCM) developed by VACCO Industries. NASA Glenn Research Center is performing integrated tests of the Hall thruster propulsion system. This presentation presents results from integrated tests of the PPU and XFCM with the HiVHAc engineering development thruster and a SPT-140 thruster provided by Space System Loral. The results presented in this paper demonstrate thruster discharge initiation, open-loop and closed-loop control of the discharge current with anode flow for both the HiVHAc and the SPT-140 thrusters. Integrated tests with the SPT-140 thruster indicated that the PPU was able to repeatedly initiate the thrusters discharge, achieve steady state operation, and successfully throttle the thruster between 1.5 and 4.5 kW. The measured SPT-140 performance was identical to levels reported by Space Systems Loral.

Hall Thrusters↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Model Description and Results - 1

Methane is an important greenhouse gas which contributes about 22 percent to the present greenhouse effect. Natural wetlands currently constitute the biggest methane source and were the major source in preindustrial times. Wetland emissions depend highly on the climate, i.e., on soil temperature and water table. To investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a process-based model that derives methane emissions from natural wetlands as a function of soil temperature, water table, and net primary productivity is used. For its application on the global scale, global data sets for all model parameters are generated. In addition, a simple hydrologic model is developed in order to simulate the position of the water table in wetlands. The hydrologic model is tested against data from different wetland sites, and the sensitivity of the hydrologic model to changes in precipitation is examined. The global methane­ hydrology model constitutes a tool to study temporal and spatial variations in methane emissions from natural wetlands. The model is applied using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions from wetlands to be 260 teragrams per year. Twenty-five percent of these methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 degrees North Latitude. Only 60 percent of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well.

Biogeochemical processes↗
NASA NTRS2016

Integration Tests of the 4 kW-Class High Voltage Hall Accelerator Power Processing Unit with the HiVHAc and the SPT-140 Hall Effect Thrusters

NASA's Science Mission Directorate is sponsoring the development of a 4 kW-class Hall propulsion system for implementation in NASA science and exploration missions. The main components of the system include the High Voltage Hall Accelerator (HiVHAc), an engineering model power processing unit (PPU) developed by Colorado Power Electronics, and a xenon flow control module (XFCM) developed by VACCO Industries. NASA Glenn Research Center is performing integrated tests of the Hall thruster propulsion system. This paper presents results from integrated tests of the PPU and XFCM with the HiVHAc engineering development thruster and a SPT-140 thruster provided by Space System Loral. The results presented in this paper demonstrate thruster discharge initiation along with open-loop and closed-loop control of the discharge current with anode flow for both the HiVHAc and the SPT-140 thrusters. Integrated tests with the SPT-140 thruster indicated that the PPU was able to repeatedly initiate the thruster's discharge, achieve steady state operation, and successfully throttle the thruster between 1.5 and 4.5 kW. The measured SPT-140 performance was identical to levels reported by Space Systems Loral.

Power Processing Unit↗
NASA NTRS1992

Knowledge representation requirements for model sharing between model-based reasoning and simulation in process flow domains

The paper examines the requirements for the reuse of computational models employed in model-based reasoning (MBR) to support automated inference about mechanisms. Areas in which the theory of MBR is not yet completely adequate for using the information that simulations can yield are identified, and recent work in these areas is reviewed. It is argued that using MBR along with simulations forces the use of specific fault models. Fault models are used so that a particular fault can be instantiated into the model and run. This in turn implies that the component specification language needs to be capable of encoding any fault that might need to be sensed or diagnosed. It also means that the simulation code must anticipate all these faults at the component level.

Throop, David R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Modeling personnel turnover in the parametric organization

A model is developed for simulating the dynamics of a newly formed organization, credible during all phases of organizational development. The model development process is broken down into the activities of determining the tasks required for parametric cost analysis (PCA), determining the skills required for each PCA task, determining the skills available in the applicant marketplace, determining the structure of the model, implementing the model, and testing it. The model, parameterized by the likelihood of job function transition, has demonstrated by the capability to represent the transition of personnel across functional boundaries within a parametric organization using a linear dynamical system, and the ability to predict required staffing profiles to meet functional needs at the desired time. The model can be extended by revisions of the state and transition structure to provide refinements in functional definition for the parametric and extended organization.

Dean, Edwin B.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Adams-Based Rover Terramechanics and Mobility Simulator - ARTEMIS

The Mars Exploration Rovers (MERs), Spirit and Opportunity, far exceeded their original drive distance expectations and have traveled, at the time of this reporting, a combined 29 kilometers across the surface of Mars. The Rover Sequencing and Visualization Program (RSVP), the current program used to plan drives for MERs, is only a kinematic simulator of rover movement. Therefore, rover response to various terrains and soil types cannot be modeled. Although sandbox experiments attempt to model rover-terrain interaction, these experiments are time-intensive and costly, and they cannot be used within the tactical timeline of rover driving. Imaging techniques and hazard avoidance features on MER help to prevent the rover from traveling over dangerous terrains, but mobility issues have shown that these methods are not always sufficient. ARTEMIS, a dynamic modeling tool for MER, allows planned drives to be simulated before commands are sent to the rover. The deformable soils component of this model allows rover-terrain interactions to be simulated to determine if a particular drive path would take the rover over terrain that would induce hazardous levels of slip or sink. When used in the rover drive planning process, dynamic modeling reduces the likelihood of future mobility issues because high-risk areas could be identified before drive commands are sent to the rover, and drives planned over these areas could be rerouted. The ARTEMIS software consists of several components. These include a preprocessor, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), Adams rover model, wheel and soil parameter files, MSC Adams GUI (commercial), MSC Adams dynamics solver (commercial), terramechanics subroutines (FORTRAN), a contact detection engine, a soil modification engine, and output DEMs of deformed soil. The preprocessor is used to define the terrain (from a DEM) and define the soil parameters for the terrain file. The Adams rover model is placed in this terrain. Wheel and soil parameter files can be altered in the respective text files. The rover model and terrain are viewed in Adams View, the GUI for ARTEMIS. The Adams dynamics solver calls terramechanics subroutines in FORTRAN containing the Bekker-Wong equations.

Trease, Brian P.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbon fluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle, we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduce seasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to both total productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models represent phenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in dryland ecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in both moisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure of existing phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized model parameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, we modified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation of grass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance were associated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to better capture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R(exp 2) = 0.75) and gross primary productivity (R(exp 2) = 0.84), though its ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new model also resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findings demonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecast climate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model↗
NASA NTRS2021

Agricultural Breadbaskets Shift Poleward Given Adaptive Farmer Behavior Under Climate Change

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global “breadbaskets”. A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end-of-century warming using 7 process-based models simulating 5 major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

adaptation↗
NASA NTRS1985

The excitation of helium resonance lines in solar flares

Helium resonance line intensities are calculated for a set of six flare models corresponding to two rates of heating and three widely varying incident fluxes of soft X-rays. The differing ionization and excitation equilibria produced by these models, the processes which dominate the various cases, and the predicted helium line spectra are examined. The line intensities and their ratios are compared with values derived from Skylab NRL spectroheliograms for a class M flare, thus determining which of these models most nearly represents the density vs temperature structure and soft X-ray flux in the flaring solar transition region, and the temperature and dominant mechanaism of formation of the helium line spectrum during a flare.

Porter, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Accounting for crustal magnetization in models of the core magnetic field

The problem of determining the magnetic field originating in the earth's core in the presence of remanent and induced magnetization is considered. The effect of remanent magnetization in the crust on satellite measurements of the core magnetic field is investigated. The crust as a zero-mean stationary Gaussian random process is modelled using an idea proposed by Parker (1988). It is shown that the matrix of second-order statistics is proportional to the Gram matrix, which depends only on the inner-products of the appropriate Green's functions, and that at a typical satellite altitude of 400 km the data are correlated out to an angular separation of approximately 15 deg. Accurate and efficient means of calculating the matrix elements are given. It is shown that the variance of measurements of the radial component of a magnetic field due to the crust is expected to be approximately twice that in horizontal components.

Jackson, Andrew↗