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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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We discuss the prospects for improving the precision on the hadronic corrections to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, and the plans of the Muon $g-2$ Theory Initiative to update the Standard Model prediction.
An overview of common approaches used to assess a dose response for radiation therapy–associated endpoints is presented, using lung toxicity data sets analyzed as a part of the High Dose per Fraction, Hypofractionated Treatment Effects in the Clinic effort as an example. Each component presented (eg, data-driven analysis, dose-response analysis, and calculating uncertainties on model prediction) is addressed using established approaches. Specifically, the maximum likelihood method was used to calculate best parameter values of the commonly used logistic model, the profile-likelihood to calculate confidence intervals on model parameters, and the likelihood ratio to determine whether the observed data fit is statistically significant. The bootstrap method was used to calculate confidence intervals for model predictions. Correlated behavior of model parameters and implication for interpreting dose response are discussed.
Thermal runaway is always a troublesome problem that hinders the safe application of high energy lithium-ion batteries. There is an urgent need to interpret the voltage and temperature changes and their underlying mechanisms during thermal runaway, in order to guide the safe design of a battery system. This paper is dedicated to building a coupled electrochemical-thermal model that can well predict the voltage drop and temperature increase during thermal runaway. The model can capture the underlying mechanism of 1) the capacity degradation under high temperature; 2) the internal short circuit caused by the thermal failure of the separator; and 3) the chemical reactions of the cell components that release heat under extreme temperature. The model is validated using by experimental data, therefore the modeling analysis has high fidelity. We employ the model to analyze 1) the capacity degradation under extreme temperature; 2) the influence of the SEI decomposition and regeneration on the thermal runaway behavior; 3) the heat generation by internal short circuit in the thermal runaway process. In conclusion, the discussions presented here help extend the usage of lithium-ion batteries at extreme high temperature (>80 degrees C), and guide the safe design of lithium-ion batteries with less hazard level during thermal runaway.
This report describes a collaborative project to develop a validated, predictive model for the high temperature mechanical properties of a titanium-matrix, tungsten-carbide/cobalt-reinforced metal matrix composite. The modeling approach was to first develop a detailed, microstructural model linking the material structure and the interfacial debonding properties to the effective properties of the material. The project then completed a throughput simulation campaign to generate a large number of simulations for discrete microstructures and different debonding parameters. Finally, the project trained a fast, Gaussian process surrogate model against this simulation database to provide a quick model linking the material compositions, structure, and processing parameters to the resulting material properties. This model was validated against high temperature tensile test data on a few particular composite compositions. The tests validate the model predictions for ultimate tensile strength and uniform elongation/ductility, meaning the final surrogate model can now be used to tune the material composition and processing parameters to identify optimal composite compositions for particular applications.
Fixed-bed regenerators may be a low cost alternative to recuperators for supercritical CO 2 power cycles. However, the transient nature of regenerators operating in sCO 2 power cycles has not been previously characterized. This study details a one-dimensional, transient model of a fixed-bed regenerator that captures phenomena such as local fluid properties and heat transfer coefficients, entrained fluid heat capacity, and the effects of conservation of mass during process switching. The model is validated with experimental results of a 10 kWth regenerator. This comparison shows that the model predicts temperature as a function of both time and space exceptionally well. The model predicts effectiveness, heat transfer, and discharge temperatures within 5%, and predicts pressure drop and fluid carryover within 10%. This model could be used in future studies to simulate regenerators within a supercritical CO 2 power cycle.
A statistical methodology was applied to the simultaneous calibration and validation of thermodynamic models for the uptake of CO{sub 2} in mesoporous silica-supported amines. The methodology is Bayesian, and follows the procedure introduced by Kennedy and O'Hagan. One key aspect of the application presented is the use of quantum chemical calculations to define prior probability distributions for physical model parameters. Inclusion of this prior information proved to be crucial to the identifiability of model parameters against experimental thermogravimetric data. Through the statistical analysis, a quantitative assessment of the accuracy of various quantum chemical methods is produced. Another important aspect of the current approach is the conditioning of the model form discrepancy – a critical component of the Kennedy and O'Hagan methodology – to the experimental data in such a manner that it becomes an implicit function of the model parameters and thereby connected with the posterior distribution. It is shown that the inclusion of prior information in the analysis leads to a shifting of uncertainty from the posterior distribution for model parameters to this conditioned model form discrepancy. Prospects for more accurate model predictions and propagation of uncertainty in upscaling and extrapolation through a “model-plus-discrepancy” approach are discussed. The synthesis methods and thermogravimetric characterization of hybrid grafted/impregnated mesoporous silica-supported amine sorbents are presented, along with the details of the quantum chemical study, which shows that a carbamic acid–base acceptor complex is the most stable form of adsorbed CO{sub 2} in both alkanol- and ethyleneamines.
Understanding human patterns-of-life (PoL) is essential towards ensuring safe and secure indoor facility environment as well as outdoor urban environment. Prediction of human movement in between places of interest is vital in understanding human PoL. Movement between spaces maybe represented and detected in one of the two forms: 1) trajectories: locations measured at regular time intervals by mobile sensors, bluetooth or GPS sensors; or 2) stay transitions: semantic PoI (points of interest) and stay duration data measurable by eventbased sensors that collect data when a check-in or check-out event is detected. Stay transition data provides a more compressed data format compared to trajectories data, especially in situations with longer stay durations, while preserving the information necessary for PoL analysis. Now as introduced briefly in the paper, our deployed end application (Digital Twin of a facility with non-player characters, besides the interactive user in virtual reality) needed a well-performing and validated AI/ML model for simulating high quality stay transitions behavior. In this study we thus primarily present our findings with developing and validating that model, which is a multi-task neural network for stay transition prediction. The neural network consists of two heads, for corresponding two tasks of stay category prediction and stay duration prediction. We evaluated gated recurrent units and multi-layer perceptrons of varying network sizes for stay category prediction; while mixture density networks, noisy generator-only networks, and generative adversarial networks of varying network sizes for stay duration prediction. We have then evaluated four multi-task models, constructed by combining these specialized models, on their ability to predict stay transition data. We tested our models on datasets from two different cases: 1) a simulation-generated dataset of indoor movement within the HFIR (high flux isotope reactor) nuclear reactor facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and 2) the GeoLife human mobility dataset of outdoor urban movement available in literature. Our results indicate that GRUMDN, which combines gated recurrent units (GRU) for stay category prediction task, and mixture density networks (MDN) for stay duration prediction task, did overall outperform other multitask models and the current state-of-the-art.
We report home energy management systems (HEMS) have been shown to reduce energy bills and to provide grid services including peak demand reduction and demand flexibility. However, uncertainty in residential energy systems is a significant issue and can reduce the benefits of a HEMS to the homeowner or grid operator. Sources of uncertainty include weather forecasts, predictions of energy-related occupant activities (e.g., hot water draws), and parameter estimation for the building envelope and energy-consuming equipment. This paper tackles the problem of uncertainty by developing a framework that simulates HEMS in uncertain conditions and evaluates the performance of multiple control strategies. A linear, reduced-order residential building model for model predictive control applications is derived and compared to a full-order model. Stochastic model predictive control is shown to perform better than deterministic and heuristic methods when considering realistic forecasts with uncertainty. The framework can evaluate the performance of HEMS in real-world applications, which can help de-risk HEMS deployment.
Packed-bed reactor models with a large reactor-diameter-to-particle-diameter ratio (N > 10) are commonly used in catalysis research. Their use is underpinned by strong simplifying assumptions including unidirectional plug flow, negligible radial gradients, small axial diffusion, and isothermal operation. However, the complex exothermic–endothermic nature of reactions like oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) coupled with heat transfer from the catalyst surface and convective heat losses from the reactor wall provides an interesting case study to evaluate packed-bed assumptions and understand axial and radial temperature variations that may impact conversion and selectivity. This computational study investigates the effect of thermal boundary conditions on catalyst performance in laboratory OCM reactors (N = ~13) through computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. Further, the 1-D model typically used for modeling plug flow reactors assumes negligible radial temperature and species concentration gradients. This assumption is evaluated for OCM reactors over a range of geometric axial aspect ratios, defined as the reactor length divided by the diameter, comparing the 1-D with 3-D CFD results. 1-D model predictions of catalyst performance start to deviate from the 3-D model predictions as the axial aspect ratio decreases, specifically as diameter increases at constant length. In the work, the 1-D model assumption is only found to be valid for axial aspect ratios higher than 1.6, a result considered to be relevant for all exothermic catalytic reactors.
An automated platform has been developed to assist researchers in the rapid development of optical spectroscopy sensors to quantify species from spectral data. This platform performs calibration and validation measurements simultaneously. Real-time, in situ monitoring of complex systems through optical spectroscopy has been shown to be a useful tool; however, building calibration models requires development time, which can be a limiting factor in the case of radiological or otherwise hazardous systems. While calibration time can be reduced through optimized design of experiments, this study approached the challenge differently through automation. The ATLAS (Automated Transient Learning for Applied Sensors) platform used pneumatic control of stock solutions to cycle flow profiles through desired calibration concentrations for multivariate model construction. Additionally, the transients between desired concentrations based on flow calculations were used as validation measurements to understand model predictive capabilities. This automated approach yielded an incredible 76% reduction in model development time and a 60% reduction in sample volume versus estimated manual sample preparation and static measurements. The ATLAS system was demonstrated on two systems: a three-lanthanide system with Pr/Nd/Ho representing a use case with significant overlap or interference between analyte signatures and an alternate system containing Pr/Nd/Ni to demonstrate a use case in which broad-band corrosion species signatures interfered with more distinct lanthanide absorbance profiles. Both systems resulted in strong model prediction performance (RMSEP < 9%). Lastly, ATLAS was demonstrated as a tool to simulate process monitoring scenarios (e.g., column separation) in which models can be further optimized to account for day-to-day changes as necessary (e.g., baseline correction). Ultimately, ATLAS offers a vital tool to rapidly screen monitoring methods, investigate sensor fusion, and explore more complex systems (i.e., larger numbers of species).
Microwave radiometers (MWR) are commonly used to quantify the amount of supercooled liquid water (SLW) in clouds; however, the accuracy of the SLW retrievals is limited by the poor knowledge of the SLW dielectric properties at microwave frequencies. Six liquid water permittivity models were compared with ground-based MWR observations between 31 and 225 GHz from sites in Greenland, the German Alps, and a low-mountain site; average cloud temperatures of observed thin cloud layers range from 0° to –33°C. A recently published method to derive ratios of liquid water opacity from different frequencies was employed in this analysis. These ratios are independent of liquid water path and equal to the ratio of αL at those frequencies that can be directly compared with the permittivity model predictions. The observed opacity ratios from all sites show highly consistent results that are generally within the range of model predictions; however, none of the models are able to approximate the observations over the entire frequency and temperature range. Findings in earlier published studies were used to select one specific model as a reference model for αL at 90 GHz; together with the observed opacity ratios, the temperature dependence of αL at 31.4, 52.28, 150, and 225 GHz was derived. The results reveal that two models fit the opacity ratio data better than the other four models, with one of the two models fitting the data better for frequencies below 90 GHz and the other for higher frequencies. Furthermore, these findings are relevant for SLW retrievals and radiative transfer in the 31–225-GHz frequency region.
Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.
Abstract A multi-physics material model is presented to describe the effects of temperature, oxygen, and humidity on the constitutive response of cross-linked polymers. The effect of hygrothermal damage on the mechanical integrity of the polymer matrix can be considered as the result of damage accumulation of two independent aging mechanism namely, i) thermo-oxidative, and ii) hydrolytic aging. In order to capture the mutual effects of thermo-oxidative and hydrolytic aging, an assumption has been made that each of the aging phenomenon can be superposed to each other. In fact, each of them works independently and as a result, they can compete with each other. Utilizing the theory of network decomposition, all phenomena and their correlation were modeled and thus, the strain energy function of the polymer matrix is written with respect to four independent mechanisms, i) the shrinking original matrix that has neither been attacked by water nor oxygen, ii) conversion of the first network to two new network due to the reduction and formation of cross-links, and iii) energy loss from network degradation due to attack of the water molecules to polymer active agents. Moreover, the proposed model is micro-mechanically based and is mainly relevant on thin samples due to our underlying assumption of homogeneous diffusion of oxygen and water throughout the matrix. The model has been validated against extensive data-sets obtained from experiments we specifically designed for concept validation.
Distributed generations (DGs) can act as emergency power supplies when distribution systems suffer from outages. However, the generation capabilities of DGs are generally limited by a number of factors including weather conditions, fuel limitations, etc. In this context, mobile resources that are able to reallocate resources to desired locations are regarded as important complements to conventional fixed DGs in assisting distribution system restoration. In this paper, a distribution system restoration model with DGs and mobile resources is proposed. Firstly, the dispatch and allocation of mobile resources are modeled with respect to the characteristics of the traffic network. Then the developed mobile resource models are integrated into the distribution system restoration model to co-optimize the scheduling of DGs and mobile resources. Uncertainty factors are managed by a model predictive control approach so that system operators can dynamically adjust the restoration strategy with the up-to-date information. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through an IEEE 13-bus test system.
Purpose: To commission and investigate the accuracy of an output (cGy/MU) prediction model for a compact passively scattered proton therapy system. Methods: A previously published output prediction model (Sahoo et al, Med Phys, 35, 5088–5097, 2008) was commissioned for our Mevion S250 proton therapy system. This model is a correction-based model that multiplies correction factors (d/MUwnc=ROFxSOBPF xRSFxSOBPOCFxOCRxFSFxISF). These factors accounted for changes in output due to options (12 large, 5 deep, and 7 small), modulation width M, range R, off-center, off-axis, field-size, and off-isocenter. In this study, the model was modified to ROFxSOBPFxRSFxOCRxFSFxISF-OCFxGACF by merging SOBPOCF and ISF for simplicity and introducing a gantry angle correction factor (GACF). To commission the model, outputs over 1,000 data points were taken at the time of the system commissioning. The output was predicted by interpolation (1D for SOBPF, FSF, and GACF; 2D for RSF and OCR) with inverse-square calculation (ISF-OCR). The outputs of 273 combinations of R and M covering total 24 options were measured to test the model. To minimize fluence perturbation, scattered dose from range compensator and patient was not considered. The percent differences between the predicted (P) and measured (M) outputs were calculated to test the prediction accuracy ([P-M]/Mx100%). Results: GACF was required because of up to 3.5% output variation dependence on the gantry angle. A 2D interpolation was required for OCR because the dose distribution was not radially symmetric especially for the deep options. The average percent differences were −0.03±0.98% (mean±SD) and the differences of all the measurements fell within ±3%. Conclusion: It is concluded that the model can be clinically used for the compact passively scattered proton therapy system. However, great care should be taken when the field-size is less than 5×5 cm{sup 2} where a direct output measurement is required due to substantial output change by irregular block shape.
Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.
Phase equilibria in mixtures containing carbon dioxide, water, and chloride salts have been investigated using a combination of solubility measurements and thermodynamic modeling. The solubility of water in the CO2-rich phase of ternary mixtures of CO2, H2O and NaCl or CaCl2 was determined, using near infrared spectroscopy, at 90 atm and 40 to 100 °C. These measurements fill a gap in the experimental database for CO2 water salt systems, for which phase composition data have been available only for the H2O-rich phases. A thermodynamic model for CO2 water salt systems has been constructed on the basis of the previously developed Mixed-Solvent Electrolyte (MSE) framework, which is capable of modeling aqueous solutions over broad ranges of temperature and pressure, is valid to high electrolyte concentrations, treats mixed-phase systems (with both scCO2 and water present) and can predict the thermodynamic properties of dry and partially water-saturated supercritical CO2 over broad ranges of temperature and pressure. Within the MSE framework the standard-state properties are calculated from the Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state whereas the excess Gibbs energy includes a long-range electrostatic interaction term expressed by a Pitzer-Debye-Hückel equation, a virial coefficient-type term for interactions between ions and a short-range term for interactions involving neutral molecules. The parameters of the MSE model have been evaluated using literature data for both the H2O-rich and CO2-rich phases in the CO2 - H2O binary and for the H2O-rich phase in the CO2 - H2O - NaCl / KCl / CaCl2 / MgCl2 ternary and multicompontent systems. The model accurately represents the properties of these systems at temperatures from 0°C to 300 °C and pressures up to ~4000 atm. Further, the solubilities of H2O in CO2-rich phases that are predicted by the model are in agreement with the new measurements for the CO2 - H2O - NaCl and CO2 - H2O - CaCl2 systems. Thus, the model can be used to predict the effect of various salts on the water content and water activity in CO2-rich phases on the basis of parameters determined from the properties of aqueous systems. Given the importance of water activity in CO2-rich phases for mineral reactivity, the model can be used as a foundation for predicting mineral transformations across the entire CO2/H2O composition range from aqueous solution to anhydrous scCO2. An example application using the model is presented which involves the transformation of forsterite to nesquehonite as a function of temperature and water content in the CO2-rich phase.
The flow curve was obtained from the superplastic tensile tests in the temperature range of 1033-1153 K and strain rate range of 0.001-0.1 s{sup −1}. Results showed that strain hardening (SH) was insensitive to deformation parameter variation but with the nature of material, while stable state (SS) and dynamic softening (DS) were significantly associated with a thermal activated process. The occurrence of secondary hardening and softening was attributed to discontinuous dynamic recrystallization. And the generation of necklace microstructure at grain boundaries was caused by bulging. Based on the experimental data, the artificial neural network (ANN), phenomenological-based constitutive (PBC) and modified Fields–Backofen (MFB) models were developed, and their predictability and adaptability for the description of the flow behavior during hot processing were evaluated by analyzing the employed standard statistical parameters. Comparatively, ANN model is capable of tracing the complex flow behavior including SH, SS and DS substages. Concerning PBC model, it can not only predict flow stress with satisfactory accuracy, but also represent the flow trend with the larger strain. MFB model adapts well to the flow curve with a broad SH region without DS effect.