Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Prediction Accuracy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Subhourly Clipping Correction Model Comparison

This work will compare the Allen method and Walker method of accounting for subhourly inverter clipping power losses in hourly PV performance models. The Allen method uses a matrix lookup based on DNI clearness and clipping potential to assign a clipping correction loss at each simulation timestep. The Walker method models the PV DC power input to the inverter as a distribution over the hourly timestep and uses integration over the timestep to determine the amount of clipping that occurs within the timestep. Both these models have been recently implemented in the System Advisor Model's (SAM) open-source code, and will be applied to hourly SURFRAD datasets to analyze the subhourly clipping loss predicted by each model for different system designs and inverter loading conditions. Both models will be compared to "true" 1-minute SURFRAD data simulations to see their accuracy against more accurate 1-minute clipping correction loss predictions. This model comparisons will be investigated in more detail at the PVSC conference in Seattle, Washington June 2024.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictions of Boron Phase Stability Using an Efficient Bayesian Machine Learning Interatomic Potential

Thermodynamic phase stability of three elemental boron allotropes, i.e., α-B, β-B, and γ-B, was investigated using a Bayesian interatomic potential trained via a sparse Gaussian process (SGP). SGP potentials trained with datasets from on-the-fly active learning achieve quantum mechanical level accuracy when employed in molecular dynamics simulations to predict wide-ranging thermodynamic, structural, and vibrational properties. The simulated phase diagram (500~1400 K and 0~16 GPa) agrees with experimental measurements. The SGP-based MD simulations also successfully predicted that the B13 defect is critical in stabilizing β-B below 700 K. At higher temperatures, the entropy becomes the dominant factor, making β-B the more stable phase over α-B. Furthermore, this Letter demonstrates that SGP potentials based on a training set consisting of defect-free-only systems could make correct predictions of defect-related phenomena in solid-state crystals, paving the path to investigate crystal phase stability and transitions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting wind farm operations with machine learning and the P2D‐RANS model: A case study for an AWAKEN site

Abstract The power performance and the wind velocity field of an onshore wind farm are predicted with machine learning models and the pseudo‐2D RANS model, then assessed against SCADA data. The wind farm under investigation is one of the sites involved with the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN). The performed simulations enable predictions of the power capture at the farm and turbine levels while providing insights into the effects on power capture associated with wake interactions that operating upstream turbines induce, as well as the variability caused by atmospheric stability. The machine learning models show improved accuracy compared to the pseudo‐2D RANS model in the predictions of turbine power capture and farm power capture with roughly half the normalized error. The machine learning models also entail lower computational costs upon training. Further, the machine learning models provide predictions of the wind turbulence intensity at the turbine level for different wind and atmospheric conditions with very good accuracy, which is difficult to achieve through RANS modeling. Additionally, farm‐to‐farm interactions are noted, with adverse impacts on power predictions from both models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of carbon nanostructure mechanical properties and the role of defects using machine learning

Graphene-based nanostructures hold immense potential as strong and lightweight materials, however, their mechanical properties such as modulus and strength are difficult to fully exploit due to challenges in atomic-scale engineering. This study presents a database of over 2,000 pristine and defective nanoscale CNT bundles and other graphitic assemblies, inspired by microscopy, with associated stress–strain curves from reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations using the reactive INTERFACE force field (IFF-R). These 3D structures, containing up to 80,000 atoms, enable detailed analyses of structure-stiffness-failure relationships. By leveraging the database and physics- and chemistry-informed machine learning (ML), accurate predictions of elastic moduli and tensile strength are demonstrated at speeds 1,000 to 10,000 times faster than efficient MD simulations. Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks with Spatial Information (HS-GNNs) are introduced, which integrate chemistry knowledge. HS-GNNs as well as extreme gradient boosted trees (XGBoost) achieve forecasts of mechanical properties of arbitrary carbon nanostructures with only 3 to 6% mean relative error. The reliability equals experimental accuracy and is up to 20 times higher than other ML methods. Predictions maintain 8 to 18% accuracy for large CNT bundles, CNT junctions, and carbon fiber cross-sections outside the training distribution. The physics- and chemistry-informed HS-GNN works remarkably well for data outside the training range while XGBoost works well with limited training data inside the training range. The carbon nanostructure database is designed for integration with multimodal experimental and simulation data, scalable beyond 100 nm size, and extendable to chemically similar compounds and broader property ranges. The ML approaches have potential for applications in structural materials, nanoelectronics, and carbon-based catalysts.

Winetrout, Jordan J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power capture and power take-off load of a self-balanced dual-flap oscillating surge wave energy converter

Wave energy converters are an important part of future renewable energy infrastructure. Predicting their power matrix, capture width ratio, and power take-off loads at a targeted site is required for performance assessment before deployment. Because their testing is very expensive, numerical modeling and simulations play a significant role in those assessments. Linear potential flow theory has limited accuracy under large amplitude wave forcing. More accurate predictions can be obtained by using higher-fidelity models, which are computationally expensive. We present a framework for multi-fidelity numerical simulations to determine the hydrodynamic response, wave capture capability, and power take-off load of a full-scale dual-flap oscillating surge wave energy converter. This design exploits out-of-phase motion by setting the distance between the flaps to half the wavelength of the most occurring wave. The simulations are validated using a 1:10 model experiments in a wave tank. Based on these validations, it was determined that Euler simulations provide an acceptable prediction with 90% reduction in computational time with only 11% error. Utilizing Euler simulations at full-scale, the results demonstrate that the annual electrical energy output is 1.79 GWh under regular wave conditions. Here, one significant improvement over single-flap designs is the capture width ratio which exceeds unity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experiment and computational fluid dynamics investigation of biochar elutriation in fluidized bed

Here, in fluidized bed biomass fast pyrolysis, the biomass is converted to biochar and elutriated. The elutriation rate is a key parameter in reactor designs and operations. This research presents a video-based continuous measurement of biochar elutriation rate in a fluidized bed with sands and biomass as bed materials. The fluidized bed is simulated with the Computational Fluid Dynamics - Coarse-Grained Discrete Element Method (CFD-CGDEM) in MFiX. The fluidization behavior of non-spherical sands can be more accurately captured when a rolling friction model is used. The predicted elutriation rate is close to the experimental measurement when the particle size distributions are considered and the filtered drag with a shape correction is used. These results validated the accuracy of the MFiX based CFD framework for the prediction of biochar elutriations in the fluidized bed biomass fast pyrolysis reactor.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

In‐Silico Device Performance Prediction of Cosensitizer Dye Pairs for Dye‐Sensitized Solar Cells

Abstract Endeavors in the field of dye‐sensitized solar cells (DSCs) have shown great promise when adopting a data‐driven approach to materials discovery, such as successful molecular‐scale predictions of light‐harvesting chromophores. However, predictions of DSC dyes would become much more sophisticated if a molecular‐to‐macroscopic DSC device prediction methodology existed. Thereby, a fully computational pipeline is presented that predicts device‐performance parameters of DSCs which contain varying dye combinations. Optimal pairing of complementary dyes is identified via a data‐driven workflow that affords cosensitized DSCs with maximum power‐conversion efficiencies. Six high‐performing DSC dyes are paired with partner dyes that are screened from a database of 8488 compounds using sequential heuristic filters. Existing models that predict short‐circuit‐current density ( J SC ) and open‐circuit voltage ( V OC ) parameters are adapted to predict singly sensitized and cosensitized DSC performance. The predictions for J sc values of singly sensitized devices match experimental literature values with comparable accuracy to more computationally costly methods. Five out of six dye pairings are predicted to have greater J SC values when cosensitized compared to their corresponding singly sensitized devices, including two pairs that show strong J sc boosts of +13% and +12% when cosensitized. Thus, the prospect of an entirely in‐silico prediction pipeline for DSC performance that can be used to realize the fully automated design of optimized cosensitized DSCs is demonstrated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extreme Scale Infrasound Inversion and Prediction for Weather Characterization and Acute Event Detection

Accurate and timely weather predictions are critical to many aspects of society with a profound impact on our economy, general well-being, and national security. In particular, our ability to forecast severe weather systems is necessary to avoid injuries and fatalities, but also important to minimize infrastructure damage and maximize mitigation strategies. The weather community has developed a range of sophisticated numerical models that are executed at various spatial and temporal scales in an attempt to issue global, regional, and local forecasts in pseudo real time. The accuracy however depends on the time period of the forecast, the nonlinearities of the dynamics, and the target spatial resolution. Significant uncertainties plague these predictions including errors in initial conditions, material properties, data, and model approximations. To address these shortcomings, a continuous data collection occurs at an effort level that is even larger than the modeling process. It has been demonstrated that the accuracy of the predictions depends on the quality of the data and is independent to a certain extent on the sophistication of the numerical models. Data assimilation has become one of the more critical steps in the overall weather prediction business and consequently substantial improvements in the quality of the data would have transformational benefits. This paper describes the use of infrasound inversion technology, enabled through exascale computing, that could potentially achieve orders of magnitude improvement in data quality and therefore transform weather predictions with significant impact on many aspects of our society.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurements of the groomed and ungroomed jet angularities in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV

The jet angularities are a class of jet substructure observables which characterize the angular and momentum distribution of particles within jets. These observables are sensitive to momentum scales ranging from perturbative hard scatterings to nonperturbative fragmentation into final-state hadrons. We report measurements of several groomed and ungroomed jet angularities in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector. Jets are reconstructed using charged particle tracks at midrapidity (|η| < 0.9). The anti-$k_T$ algorithm is used with jet resolution parameters R = 0.2 and R = 0.4 for several transverse momentum $p^{ch jet}_{T}$ intervals in the 20–100 GeV/c range. Using the jet grooming algorithm Soft Drop, the sensitivity to softer, wide-angle processes, as well as the underlying event, can be reduced in a way which is well-controlled in theoretical calculations. We report the ungroomed jet angularities, λ α , and groomed jet angularities, λ α,g , to investigate the interplay between perturbative and nonperturbative effects at low jet momenta. Various angular exponent parameters α = 1, 1.5, 2, and 3 are used to systematically vary the sensitivity of the observable to collinear and soft radiation. Results are compared to analytical predictions at next-to-leading-logarithmic accuracy, which provide a generally good description of the data in the perturbative regime but exhibit discrepancies in the nonperturbative regime. Moreover, these measurements serve as a baseline for future ones in heavy-ion collisions by providing new insight into the interplay between perturbative and nonperturbative effects in the angular and momentum substructure of jets. They supply crucial guidance on the selection of jet resolution parameter, jet transverse momentum, and angular scaling variable for jet quenching studies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved thermal resummation for multi-field potentials

The resummation of large thermal corrections to the effective potential is mandatory for the accurate prediction of phase transitions. We discuss the accuracy of different prescriptions to perform this resummation at the one- and two-loop level and point out conceptual issues that appear when using a high-temperature expansion at the two-loop level. Moreover, we show how a particular prescription called partial dressing, which does not rely on a high-temperature expansion, consistently avoids these issues. We introduce a novel technique to apply this resummation method to the case of multiple mixing fields. Our approach significantly extends the range of applicability of the partial dressing prescription, making it suitable for phenomenological studies of beyond the Standard Model extensions of the Higgs sector.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed State-space Neural Networks for transport phenomena

This work introduces Physics -informed State -space neural network Models (PSMs), a novel solution to achieving real-time optimization, flexibility, and fault tolerance in autonomous systems, particularly in transportdominated systems such as chemical, biomedical, and power plants. Traditional data -driven methods fall short due to a lack of physical constraints like mass conservation; PSMs address this issue by training deep neural networks with sensor data and physics -informing using components' Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), resulting in a physics -constrained, end -to -end differentiable forward dynamics model. Further, through two in silico experiments - a heated channel and a cooling system loop - we demonstrate that PSMs offer a more accurate approach than a purely data -driven model. In the former experiment, PSMs demonstrated significantly lower average root -mean -square errors across test datasets compared to a purely data -driven neural network, with reductions of 44 %, 48 %, and 94 % in predicting pressure, velocity, and temperature, respectively. Beyond accuracy, PSMs demonstrate a compelling multitask capability, making them highly versatile. In this work, we showcase two: supervisory control of a nonlinear system through a sequentially updated state -space representation and the proposal of a diagnostic algorithm using residuals from each of the PDEs. The former demonstrates PSMs' ability to handle constant and time -dependent constraints, while the latter illustrates their value in system diagnostics and fault detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of machine learning and electrical resistivity arrays to inverse modeling for locating and characterizing subsurface targets

Here, this study evaluates the performance of multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms and electrical resistivity (ER) arrays for inversion with comparison to a conventional Gauss-Newton numerical inversion method. Four different ML models and four arrays were used for the estimation of only six variables for locating and characterizing hypothetical subsurface targets. The combination of dipole-dipole with Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN) had the highest accuracy. Evaluation showed that both MLP-NN and Gauss-Newton methods performed well for estimating the matrix resistivity while target resistivity accuracy was lower, and MLP-NN produced sharper contrast at target boundaries for the field and hypothetical data. Both methods exhibited comparable target characterization performance, whereas MLP-NN had increased accuracy compared to Gauss-Newton in prediction of target width and height, which was attributed to numerical smoothing present in the Gauss-Newton approach. MLP-NN was also applied to a field dataset acquired at U.S. DOE Hanford site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-constrained deep neural network method for estimating parameters in a redox flow battery

Here, in this paper, we present a physics-constrained deep neural network (PCDNN) method for parameter estimation in the zero-dimensional (0D) model of the vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB). In this approach, we use deep neural networks to approximate the model parameters as functions of the operating conditions. This method allows the integration of VRFB computational models as the physical constraints in the parameter learning process, leading to enhanced accuracy of parameter estimation and cell voltage prediction. Using an experimental dataset, we demonstrate that the PCDNN method can estimate model parameters for a range of operating conditions and improve the 0D model prediction of voltage compared to the 0D model prediction with constant operation-condition-independent parameters estimated with traditional inverse methods. We also demonstrate that the PCDNN approach has an improved generalization ability for estimating parameter values for operating conditions not used in the training process.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Force Fields for Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Platinum in Bulk and Nanoparticle Forms

Here, understanding the size- and shape-dependent properties of platinum nanoparticles is critical for enabling the design of nanoparticle-based applications with optimal and potentially tunable functionality. Toward this goal, we evaluated nine different empirical potentials with the purpose of accurately modeling faceted platinum nanoparticles using molecular dynamics simulation. First, the potentials were evaluated by computing bulk and surface properties - surface energy, lattice constant, stiffness constants, and the equation of state - and comparing these to prior experimental measurements and quantum mechanics calculations. Then, the potentials were assessed in terms of the stability of cubic and icosahedral nanoparticles with faces in the {100} and {111} planes, respectively. Although none of the force fields predicts all the evaluated properties with perfect accuracy, one potential - the embedded atom method formalism with a specific parameter set - was identified as best able to model platinum in both bulk and nanoparticle forms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Density Functional Theory Study of Magnetic Exchange Couplings in Dinuclear Transition-Metal Complexes

Multicenter transition-metal complexes (MCTMs) with magnetically interacting ions have been proposed as components for information-processing devices and storage units. For any practical application of MCTMs as magnetic units, it is crucial to characterize their magnetic behavior, and in particular, the isotropic magnetic exchange coupling, J, between its magnetic centers. Due to the large size of typical MCTMs, density functional theory is the only practical electronic structure method for evaluating the J coupling. Here, we assess the accuracy of different density functional approximations for predicting the magnetic couplings of eight dinuclear transition-metal complexes, including five dimanganese, two dicopper, and one divanadium with known reliable experimental J couplings spanning from ferromagnetic to strong antiferromagnetic. The density functionals considered include global hybrid functionals which mix semilocal density functional approximations and exact exchange with a fixed admixing parameter, six local hybrid functionals where the admixing parameters are extended to be spatially dependent, the SCAN and r 2 SCAN meta-generalized gradient approximations (GGAs), and two widely used GGAs. We found that global hybrids tested in this work have a tendency to over-correct the error in magnetic coupling parameters from the Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof (PBE) GGA as seen for manganese complexes. The performance of local hybrid density functionals shows no improvement in terms of bias and is scattered without a clear trend, suggesting that more efforts are needed for the extension from global to local hybrid density functionals for this particular property. The SCAN and r 2 SCAN meta-GGAs are found to perform as well as benchmark global hybrids on most tested complexes. We further analyze the charge density redistribution of meta-GGAs as well as global and local hybrid density functionals with respect to that of PBE, in connection to the self-interaction error or delocalization error.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Elucidating the Microscale Behavior and Phase Separation Kinetics of Thermally Responsive Ionic Liquid–Water Mixtures

Thermally responsive ionic liquids (ILs) exhibit liquid-liquid phase separation into a water-rich (WR) and ionic-liquid-rich (ILR) phase when heated above a lower critical solution temperature (LCST). This phase behavior has been leveraged for applications ranging from forward osmosis (FO) desalination, where the IL acts as a draw solute, to refrigeration and dehumidification cycles, where the IL acts as a liquid desiccant. While significant effort has been devoted to characterizing the thermodynamic and thermophysical properties of LCST ILs, their phase separation kinetics have not been investigated. In this work, we describe the macroscale phase separation kinetics (phase separation time) by gleaning insight into the microscale colloidal behavior of aqueous mixtures of four different materials, P 4444 TFA (tetrabutylphosphonium-2,4-trifluoroacetate), P 4444 DMBS (tetrabutylphosphonium-2,4-dimethyl-benzenesulfonate), N 4444 Sal (tetrabutylammonium salicylate), and P 4444 Sal (tetrabutylphosphonium salicylate) as a function of IL concentration at a separation temperature of 70 °C. We report the discontinuous microscale size distributions for each material and correlate their theoretical settling velocities to experimental phase separation times. The results indicate that a simple Stokes' law model can predict the phase separation time within reasonable accuracy. Overall, this work lays the foundation for understanding the micro- to macroscale phase separation behavior and kinetics of LCST ILs for various water-energy applications.

LCST↗
DOE OSTI2024

Collective dynamics and long-range order in thermal neuristor networks

Abstract In the pursuit of scalable and energy-efficient neuromorphic devices, recent research has unveiled a novel category of spiking oscillators, termed “thermal neuristors.” These devices function via thermal interactions among neighboring vanadium dioxide resistive memories, emulating biological neuronal behavior. Here, we show that the collective dynamical behavior of networks of these neurons showcases a rich phase structure, tunable by adjusting the thermal coupling and input voltage. Notably, we identify phases exhibiting long-range order that, however, does not arise from criticality, but rather from the time non-local response of the system. In addition, we show that these thermal neuristor arrays achieve high accuracy in image recognition and time series prediction through reservoir computing, without leveraging long-range order. Our findings highlight a crucial aspect of neuromorphic computing with possible implications on the functioning of the brain: criticality may not be necessary for the efficient performance of neuromorphic systems in certain computational tasks.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗