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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

Real-time and Autonomous Water Quality Monitoring System Based on Remotely Operated Vehicle

Existing water quality monitoring systems near hydropower facilities are limited by the lack of mobility of the sensors’ carrier platform. Most systems use a buoy, a mounting fixture attached to a solid structure, or a human worker, which significantly limits the selection of the sampling sites and poses safety risks during data collection and equipment maintenance. To improve on this technology, we developed an autonomous water quality monitoring system that can operate in dangerous water environments near hydropower facilities for water sampling at multiple locations. The goal is to enable safe, timely, and comprehensive water-quality data collection; maximize power generation revenue with improved operational control; and reduce Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and state water quality monitoring costs for compliance. The system incorporates a remotely operated vehicle as the mobile monitoring platform, a dissolved oxygen sensor for monitoring water quality, a tether management system for automatically winding the tether, a solar mobile docking platform for suppling power to the ROV, and a web-based graphical user interface for data post-processing and visualization. In addition, preliminary field research are presented to demonstrate the system capabilities.

Salalila, Aljon L.↗

Technoeconomic analysis of hydrogen storage using 1,4-butanediol (BDO)/γ-butyrolactone (GBL) as a stationary backup power system

Liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs) are compounds that store and release hydrogen in stable forms at high density. While one-way carriers such as methanol and ammonia have gained attention, their economic advantages are often realized from their use as an export product and direct use as a fuel. Liquid carrier materials that can instead be cycled for energy storage have promise for stationary power applications. In particular, the reversible LOHC system 1,4-butanediol (BDO, H 2 -rich) and gamma-butyrolactone (GBL, H 2 -lean) has a lower enthalpy of dehydrogenation compared to conventional cyclic hydrocarbons and can utilize non-precious metal copper-based catalysts. Here, in this study, BDO/GBL system capital and operating expenses are characterized for vapor phase versus liquid phase hydrogenation and dehydrogenation in a 10 MW backup power application corresponding to sizing of Tier 2 datacenters as well as other critical infrastructure such as hospitals. Costs are benchmarked against two incumbent technologies: a well-established methylcyclohexane/toluene carrier system and compressed gas storage. BDO/GBL storage costs are found to differ substantially between operating modes, with liquid phase hydrogenation coupled with liquid phase dehydrogenation leading to the lowest LCOS of $\$$4.58/kg H 2 in the absence of byproduct formation. In this bounding case, LCOS for the BDO/GBL system is lower than for MCH/TOL ($\$$6.97/kg H 2 ) and compressed gas ($\$$8.48/kg H 2 at 170 bara and $\$$12.05/kg H 2 at 350 bara). However, escalating costs of carrier replacement due to byproduct formation (ranging from an added $\$$6–11/kg H 2 ) illustrate the need for highly selective catalysts to ensure BDO/GBL carrier viability.

BDO/GBL↗

A Methodology to Support the Development of a New State Vision for the U.S. Nuclear Industry

Recent changes in natural gas prices combined with reduced capital costs for solar and wind systems has created challenges for the continued operation of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States. A new strategy in the way in which U.S. NPPs are operated, maintained, and supported is needed. One such strategy is to transform the NPP operating model through a business-driven approach that leverages technology to enable new capabilities that improve performance and reduce costs. This paper presents a methodology for developing an achievable yet transformative new state vision that ensures the continued safe and efficient operations of the U.S. NPP fleet. Here this work builds on existing guidance and leverages previous research to comprehensively address both utility needs and high-level human factors engineering design principles when developing a new state vision. The proposed methodology is intended to provide industry-wide guidance for developing a new state vision that leverages both the selected vendor’s capabilities in a way that meets the utility’s modernization goals while ensuring state-of-the-art systems engineering and human factors engineering principles are applied that promote overall plant safety, performance, and efficiency.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Combining Simulation and Optimization to Derive Operating Policies for a Concentrating Solar Power Plant

Optimizing short-term decisions over a rolling horizon and/or using deterministic penalties to capture system stochasticity can lead to myopic policies that fail to consider unplanned events and their long-term adverse effects. We present a methodology that integrates an off-line optimization model with a simulation procedure to determine the profitability of different operating strategies; specifically, the latter is used to generate additional constraints for the former when failures occur according to system component operating lifetimes that (i) are subject to exogenous uncertainty, and (ii) may degrade more quickly under specific operating conditions. We use the feedback provided by the simulation model in a parametric analysis to obtain penalties that can be used in short-term operations scheduling to maximize the long-term revenues obtained by the optimization model. We apply this research to a concentrating solar power plant; our results show that the methodology can be used to choose an operating policy that balances maximizing profit while accounting for maintenance costs. Integrating the optimization model with a simulation procedure reveals that aggressive prices for cycling yield about 55% fewer startups and 30% fewer failures compared to using a more typical start-up operating strategy, and can save hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars in repair costs over the lifetime of the plant.

concentrating solar power↗

NRIC EBR-II Test Bed Pre-Conceptual Design Report

Authorized by the Nuclear Energy Innovation Capabilities Act (NEICA), the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) provides private sector technology developers access to strategic infrastructures and assets for commercial nuclear energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment activities. The mission is to support a timely and cost-effective path to the licensing and commercialization of new nuclear energy systems. To meet these needs, NRIC is developing two test beds at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The ZPPR Test bed (ZTB) and the EBR-II Test bed (ETB). The EBR-II test bed will support the demonstration of systems that operate at less than 10 MWt. The baseline objective is for the EBR-II Dome to act as a safety significant containment structure capable of siting reactors that utilize Safeguards Category 4 material for operations. The major areas addressed in the pre-conceptual design include: • Installation of an access door • Electrical Power • Heat Removal • Ventilation in the Dome • Module handling system Along with the design for ETB a concept of operations (COP) has also been developed. The COP is intended to facilitate a common understanding of ideas, challenges, and issues. As systems continue to evolve in complexity System Engineers and Project Directors will utilize the COP to develop and sustain a common vision of the system for stakeholders.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

MIRACL Co‐Simulation platform for control and operation of distributed wind in microgrid

Abstract This paper presents a co‐simulation platform (CSP) developed as a part of the “Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL)” project, hereafter called MIRACL‐CSP, to allow simulation‐based testing, demonstration, and evaluations of distributed wind under various grid operating conditions. MIRACL‐CSP provides modular interactions among the power distribution system, distributed wind, and utility decision‐making framework. A hierarchical engine for large‐scale infrastructure co‐simulations (HELICS) is used as the core engine of MIRACL‐CSP to establish time and information coordination among the MIRACL‐CSP modules. In this study, MIRACL‐CSP performance is demonstrated using the IEEE 123‐node test distribution grid modelled in GridLAB‐D and the utility decision support application modelled in Python. The functionality of MIRACL‐CSP is demonstrated through various grid operational scenarios in a microgrid and networked microgrid environment. A co‐simulation study is described that demonstrated MIRACL‐CSP capabilities for the microgrid operational scenario in the IEEE 123‐node test system. MIRACL‐CSP is a generic platform that facilitates distributed wind research for different test systems, applications, and valuation of distributed wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Design, Development and Testing Plan for Energy Efficiency Algorithms Related to Building-Integrated Cooling, Heating, and Power Systems

Building-integrated cooling, heating and power (CHP) systems are more efficient than conventional systems at providing local power and thermal energy, and favorable fuel prices are bound to spur their increased adoption. It is estimated that the total CHP technical potential in the commercial building sector is approximately 76 GW, but only a small fraction of it is actually deployed. Advanced control and monitoring systems that realize the full potential of these CHP systems can transform this capacity into an asset for both the owner and the grid and also accelerate the adoption of these systems in the building sector. However, to realize the full benefit of the CHP systems, we must ensure persistence of energy efficient operations. It has been demonstrated by several studies that as much as 30% of building energy use is wasted. Much of the waste results from the inability to anticipate load variations (design day vs. non-design day operations; diurnal variation of loads), identify improper operation, and efficiently operate, control and maintain building systems. Moreover, many buildings, even those with adequate control infrastructure, lack knowledgeable staff to operate and maintain energy systems. Operators of buildings with CHP systems will constantly need to make tradeoffs (economic dispatch) between onsite power generation and purchasing power, between onsite heat production from distributed generation versus heating/cooling from conventional systems, and different passive and active load management measures. Much of the inefficiency in the current building operations can be eliminated by use of automated performance monitoring (PM), real-time commissioning verification (CxV) and automated fault detection and diagnostic (AFDD) tools. Automation can help system operators make intelligent decisions. Remote and continuous monitoring of system conditions and performance will enable better management and integration of CHP with existing building systems. Continuous PM, real-time CxV and AFDD could alleviate burdens for operations staff, enhance operations and maintenance (O&M), and improve reliability of building and CHP systems. To address the O&M challenges and to provide a means to maximize the rate-of-return of building-integrated CHP systems, the Building Technologies Office (BTO) within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) initiated a project to design, develop, and field test a VOLTTRON™-based supervisory controller and associated open-source algorithms. These algorithms will ensure real-time optimal operation of a building-integrated CHP system, support electric grid reliability, and lead to achieving the goal of a clean, efficient, reliable and affordable next-generation integrated energy systems. This report lists the components for which PM, real-time CxV and AFDD algorithms will be developed, how the algorithms will be tested, and metrics that will be used to validate the algorithms and easy of deployment. Deployment of these algorithms in the field will result in savings reduction in energy consumption of between 10% and 20%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) Program Plan. Nuclear Energy Enabling Technologies (NEET)

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) sponsors a crosscutting technology development (CTD) program addressing common instrumentation & controls (I&C) needs in all DOE-NE sponsored programs. In 2012, DOE-NE initiated the Nuclear Energy Enabling Technology (NEET) Program to conduct research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) in crosscutting technologies that directly support and enable the development of existing, new and advanced reactor designs, and fuel cycle technologies. These technologies will advance the state of nuclear technology, improve its competitiveness, and promote continued contribution to meeting our Nation’s energy and environmental challenges. The NEET Program has spurred innovation in the field of sensors and instrumentation, advanced methods for manufacturing, and cyber security. The Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) program is one element of the NEET CTD that has spurred innovation in the measurement science field by funding research on sensors, instrumentation and controls, communication, and advanced analytics that measure system parameters, gauge component control input, and provide power plant owners and operators critical awareness so they can plan and safely manage operational evolutions. The NEET ASI Program has carried out research and development (R&D) required to develop and deploy innovative and advanced sensors, and instrumentation and control capabilities for current and future nuclear energy systems, and to enable the advanced technologies essential to NE’s R&D efforts needed to realize mission goals. The concept of technology readiness assessment is helpful for the classification of instrumentation technology as part of the program strategy. A technology readiness assessment evaluates technology maturity using the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale and was pioneered by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in the 1980s for space technology. It has recently been adopted to advance fuels and materials. The NEET ASI program objective is to mature instruments technology to TRL 6, which is “demonstration of the technology in relevant environment.” While there may be instances in which a different strategy is justified, the aim of the program is to respond to DOE program and stakeholder needs for nuclear instrumentation then hand off the technology after demonstration for integration in a more complex system, for example an irradiation test, experimental loop or a plant component such as the core, primary system or heat exchanger. A mechanism to continue some level of support from NEET ASI during and after the adoption (for example, to maintain fabrication and calibration capabilities) will be defined as the first example of technology hand off comes to fruition. In addition, several paths exist within DOE to complement NEET ASI activities to extend the maturity beyond TRL, for example through GAIN, technology commercialization funding, and small-business programs. Role of NEET ASI CINR projects in the TRL space, and integration with direct funded demonstration.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Using a Grid-Forming Inverter to Stabilize a Low-Inertia Power System - Maui Hawaiian Island

As power systems around the world integrate greater amounts of wind and solar photovoltaic power, periods of very high instantaneous power shares of inverters, the primary interfacing technology for these generation sources, are complicating system stability and control. The contemporary, primary mode of inverter operation, grid-following, which explicitly assumes the presence of a local, stable voltage waveform, yields operational inadequacy at high instantaneous power shares potentially leading to instability due to the low-inertia conditions, as well as the correlated reduced voltage forming capacity on the respective system. Parallel connected grid-forming inverters, which directly regulate the local voltage, are a solution that is expected to bolster system stability and mitigate the shortcomings of the grid-following technology. In this paper, grid-following and two types of grid-forming inverter control, the traditional linear droop and the recently introduced nonlinear exponential droop (Droop-e), are simulated on a low-inertia, H = 0.48s, high inverter-based resource scenario, 97%, with a validated electromagentic transient domain model of the Hawaiian island of Maui power system. The benefit of a single grid-forming device over its grid-following counterpart is significant, both in terms frequency deviation and voltage stability. Further, the superiority of the Droop-e and the associated secondary power sharing control over both grid-following and linear droop grid-forming technologies is displayed, with improved nadir and rate of change of frequency over the linear droop control.

droop control↗

Parallel computing for power system climate resiliency: Solving a large-scale stochastic capacity expansion problem with mpi-sppy

Here we propose a nodal stochastic generation and transmission expansion planning model that incorporates the output from high-resolution global climate models through load and generation availability scenarios. We implement our model in Pyomo and perform computational studies on a realistically-sized test case of the California electric grid in a high performance computing environment. We propose model reformulations and algorithm tuning to efficiently solve this large problem using a variant of the Progressive Hedging Algorithm. We utilize the parallelization capabilities and overall versatility of mpi-sppy, exploiting its hub-and-spoke architecture to concurrently obtain inner and outer bounds on an optimal expansion plan. Initial results show that instances with 360 representative days on a system with over 8,000 buses can be solved to within 5% of optimality in under 4 h of wall clock time, a first step towards solving a large-scale power system expansion planning problem across a wide range of climate-informed operational scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Next-Generation, High-temperature, High-frequency, High-efficiency, High-power-density Traction System

To meet performance and reliability requirements necessary for broader adoption of electric drive vehicles, the Electrical and Electronics Technical Team of the U.S. Drive partnership has established aggressive design goals for next-generation electric vehicle drivetrains. Specifically, the 2025 roadmap stipulates a 100 kW/L power density target and a $\$$2.7/kW cost target for power electronics, in addition to high-voltage operation (i.e., greater than 800 VDC). The additional targets for traction motor and the overall system performance impose further challenges on the power electronics design. For example, many high specific power machines have reduced iron content, and therefore reduced intrinsic filtering, thus requiring the inverter to supply a low-distortion drive current. These machines also typically have a high pole count, thus requiring drive current at a higher electrical frequency. Other motors, such as brush-less dc and switch reluctance machines, require a carefully-shaped, non-sinusoidal drive current (Yang, Shang, Brown, & Krishnamurthy, 2015), (Zhang, Bowman, O'Connel, & Haran, 2018), (Anderson, et al., 2018). Two- and three-level inverter topologies are the conventional framework for the power electronics design of the drivetrain, and some demonstrations have shown recent progress towards addressing cost, power density and efficiency goals (Gurpinar & Ozpineci, 2018), (Zhu, Kim, Chen, Erickson, & Maksimović, 2018), (Deshpande, Chen, Narayanasamy, Sathyanarayanan, & Luo, 2018), (Alizadeh, et al., 2019). However, an unconventional approach may be necessary to take the dramatic leap in power density necessitated by the roadmap—while simultaneously addressing the other system needs. Therefore, this project leverages the flying capacitor multilevel (FCML) topology, together with a scalable, modular approach, to address these needs. This type of hybrid converter has several advantages: lower voltage (i.e., less than 300 V) transistors can be used, energy-dense capacitors process most of the power, and the output current waveform is multilevel and exhibits a frequency multiplying effect—in other words, the output has reduced dv/dt and filtering requirements for the same high voltage dc bus. For example, in an electric vehicle with an 800 V bus, a 10-level FCML could leverage 100 V, commercially available GaN devices switching at 115 kHz to produce a ~1 MHz switching waveform (modulated according to the motor drive requirements) with one ninth of the dv/dt of a two-level converter. Prior work has already demonstrated promising performance and gravimetric power density figures for more electric aircraft applications (Pallo, Foulkes, Modeer, Coday, & Pilawa-Podgurski, 2018). This project leverages lessons learned to achieve the volumetric power density of 100 kW/L by employing advanced liquid cooling, address the 300,000 mile reliability challenge with redundant design, topology failure studies and online health monitoring, and reduce costs to $\$$2.7/kW through the use of low-cost GaN devices, modular converter assemblies, and modest modifications to traditional manufacturing methods. The project involved several hardware designs, each achieving increasing performance. At the conclusion of the project, a volumetric power density of 380 kW/L was achieved, in a 800V dc-ac converter, greatly surpassing even the aggressive target goal.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Novel artificial neural network model for instantaneous power losses and operational efficiency mapping of MW-scale vanadium redox flow battery for improved technoeconomic analysis

A novel data-driven, machine-learning-based method for modeling the instantaneous power losses of a distribution-sited 2 MW/8MWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), a grid-scale electrochemical storage technology, is introduced and compared against benchmark empirical modeling approaches, including symmetric and asymmetric models, as well as a recent convex hull modeling approach. The novel loss modeling method introduces several advantages over the benchmark models and over simplistic efficiency estimates, the most significant of which is that the model can accurately reflect the stepwise and non-linear parasitic losses associated with the duty cycles of mechanical auxiliary systems like pump motor drives and blower fans. Residuals of the models are compared; the proposed data driven model features significantly improved accuracy over the benchmark models. The model's coefficient of determination is also improved relative to that of the benchmark models. Furthermore, a novel method for visualization of operational efficiency of the grid-scale storage technology is introduced. To demonstrate the benefits of the novel data-driven method for modeling the VRFB, the benchmark models and the proposed models are embedded into an Open DSS distribution network model to study two applications of the grid-scale electrical storage system: load leveling for grid support and energy arbitrage. This article demonstrates that the accuracy of the instantaneous power loss model significantly impacts the understanding of the state of charge of the VRFB. In turn, the accuracy of the efficiency modeling of the VRFB impacts the understanding of the potential economic value and technical benefits to the distribution network operators. In conclusion, the presented power loss modeling approach is, therefore, highly relevant for utility-stakeholders, battery asset owners, system engineers, system designers, and financial planners interested in evaluating or optimizing the operation of grid-scale VRFBs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cosimulating Integrated Energy Systems With Heterogeneous Digital Twins: Matching a Connected World

Energy system integration promises in-creased resiliency and the unlocking of synergies, while also contributing to our goal of decarbonization. It is enabled by both old and new technologies, glued together with data and digital services. Hydrolyzers, heat pumps, distributed renewable generation, smart buildings, and the digital grid edge are all currently the subject of integration with the power system and the energy sector at large. To plan and operate such a multidisciplinary and multisectoral system properly, insight, tools, and expertise are all needed. Further, this is exactly where the state of the art fails to deliver: tools for integrated energy systems (IESs) are still in their infancy, and many times, even academia treats these sectors separately, producing experts in each of them but not across.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗

Beyond Price Taker: Optimizing Integrated Energy Systems Considering Market/Grid Interactions

Integrated Energy Systems (IES) combine two or more processes to increase the efficiency, flexibility of operation, and the overall reliability. However, analyzing IESs in volatile electricity markets is challenging, since the volatility in electricity prices makes the conventional levelized cost-type analysis less realistic. This work presents two approaches to address the challenge: price-taker and a surrogates-based approach for incorporating market interactions. The price-taker approach formulates a multiperiod optimization problem that takes the time-varying electricity prices into account, and solves the optimization problem to determine the optimal operational schedule that maximizes the chosen economic metric. This approach is successfully applied to investigate the performance of flexible power and hydrogen co-production systems. The market surrogates approach trains a machine learning model to predict the market behavior as a function of the characteristics of the IES. The trained surrogate model is used to optimize the design and operation of the given IES in an electricity market. This approach is demonstrated on a case study involving a nuclear power plant retrofitted with a low-temperature electrolysis unit to co-produce power and hydrogen.

beyond price taker↗

Identification of Worst Impact Zones for Power Grids During Extreme Weather Events Using Q-Learning: Preprint

Both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have been trending higher in recent years, leading to significant infrastructure loss in the electric grid. The impact of these extreme weather events is desired to be analyzed and quantified in order to help transmission and distribution system operators to prepare and prevent significant losses. In this paper, we developed an approach that models the impact of extreme weather on the power grid and identifies the worst impact zone using Q-learning (a reinforcement learning approach). The identification results reveal grid vulnerability to weather events and provide insights for system operators to help achieve optimal resource allocation and crew dispatch in order to minimize the adverse impact of extreme weather. Simulation studies are conducted on the IEEE 123-node system to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Scalable Predictive Control and Optimization for Grid Integration of Large-Scale Distributed Energy Resources: Preprint

Integration of a large number of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the power grid needs a scalable power balancing method. We formulate the power balancing problem as a look-ahead optimization problem to be solved sequentially by a power distribution system aggregator based on a model predictive control (MPC) framework. Solving large-scale look-ahead control problem requires proper configuration of the control steps. In this paper, to solve large-scale control problems, we propose a variable time granularity where control time steps nearby the current control step have finer resolutions. The aggregator objective includes maximization of power production revenue and minimization of power purchasing expense, renewable power curtailment, and mileage costs for energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) charging stations while satisfying system capacity and operational constraints. The control problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and solved using the XpressMP solver. We perform simulations considering a copper plate representation of a large distribution network consisting of 2507 devices (controllable DERs) including curtailable photovoltaics (PVs), energy storage batteries, EV charging stations, and buildings with heating, ventilation, and air conditioning units (HVACs). We show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in managing DERs interactively for maximum energy trading profit and local supply-demand power balancing. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperformed other benchmark controllers regarding computation time without compromising operational performance.

DER↗

Smoke from 2020 United States wildfires responsible for substantial solar energy forecast errors

Abstract The 2020 wildfire season (May through December) in the United States was exceptionally active, with the National Interagency Fire Center reporting over 10 million acres ( > 40 000 km 2 ) burned. During the September 2020 wildfire events, large concentrations of smoke particulates were emitted into the atmosphere. As a result, smoke was responsible for ∼10%–30% reduction in solar power production during peak hours as recorded by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) sites. In this study, we focus on a 9 d period in September when wildfire smoke had a profound impact on solar energy production. During the smoke episodes, hour-ahead forecasts utilized by CAISO did not include the effects of smoke and therefore overestimated the expected power production by ∼10%–50%. Here we use multiple observational networks and a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to show that the wildfire events of 2020 had a significantly detrimental influence on solar energy production due to high aerosol loading. We find that including the contribution of biomass burning particles greatly improves the day-ahead solar energy bias forecast of both global horizontal irradiance and direct normal irradiance by nearly ∼50%. Our results suggest that a more comprehensive treatment of aerosols, including biomass burning aerosols, in NWP models may be an important consideration for energy grid balancing, in addition to solar resource assessment, as solar power reliance increases.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗