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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

A Formal Approach to Empirical Dynamic Model Optimization and Validation

A framework was developed for the optimization and validation of empirical dynamic models subject to an arbitrary set of validation criteria. The validation requirements imposed upon the model, which may involve several sets of input-output data and arbitrary specifications in time and frequency domains, are used to determine if model predictions are within admissible error limits. The parameters of the empirical model are estimated by finding the parameter realization for which the smallest of the margins of requirement compliance is as large as possible. The uncertainty in the value of this estimate is characterized by studying the set of model parameters yielding predictions that comply with all the requirements. Strategies are presented for bounding this set, studying its dependence on admissible prediction error set by the analyst, and evaluating the sensitivity of the model predictions to parameter variations. This information is instrumental in characterizing uncertainty models used for evaluating the dynamic model at operating conditions differing from those used for its identification and validation. A practical example based on the short period dynamics of the F-16 is used for illustration.

Crespo, Luis G↗

Raindrop Size Spectrum in Deep Convective Regions of the Americas

This study compared drop size distribution (DSD) measurements on the surfaces, the corresponding properties, and the precipitation modes among three deep convective regions within the Americas. The measurement compilation corresponded to two sites in the midlatitudes: the U.S. Southern Great Plains and Córdoba Province in subtropical South America, as well as to one site in the tropics: Manacapuru in central Amazonia; these are all areas where intense rain-producing systems contribute to the majority of rainfall in the Americas’ largest river basins. This compilation included two types of disdrometers (Parsivel and 2D-Video Disdrometer) that were used at the midlatitude sites and one type of disdrometer (Parsivel) that was deployed at the tropical site. The distributions of physical parameters (such as rain rate R, mass-weighted mean diameter D m , and normalized droplet concentration N w ) for the raindrop spectra without rainfall mode classification seemed similar, except for the much broader N w distributions in Córdoba. The raindrop spectra were then classified into a light precipitation mode and a precipitation mode by using a cutoff at 0.5 mm h -1 based on previous studies that characterized the full drop size spectra. These segregated rain modes are potentially unique relative to previously studied terrain-influenced sites. In the light precipitation and precipitation modes, the dominant higher frequency observed in a broad distribution of N w in both types of disdrometers and the identification of shallow light precipitation in vertically pointing cloud radar data represent unique characteristics of the Córdoba site relative to the others. As a result, the co-variability between the physical parameters of the DSD indicates that the precipitation observed in Córdoba may confound existing methods of determining the rain type by using the drop size distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development and Analysis of a Thick Cloud Layers Database for Lightning Launch Commit Criteria Improvement

Lightning can pose a potential threat to space launch vehicles. In response to this, rules were created called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) that help weather personnel evaluate the potential for natural and rocket-triggered lightning. One of the ten LLCC with the least research is called the Thick Cloud Layers rule. To further understand electrification of thick cloud layers and potentially improve the Thick Cloud Layers rule, a database of thick cloud layers that occurred over the Eastern Range was created. This database is then used to create an algorithm for identifying and differentiating thick cloud layers from other cloud types based on radar characteristics, temperature levels in reference to cloud height, and the surface electric field. By analyzing and identifying thick cloud events, this project could help narrow down when thick clouds are occurring and potentially minimize unnecessary launch delays. Events that caused LLCC violations involving the Thick Cloud Layers rule were analyzed by hand using Level-2 NEXRAD radar data from the National Weather Service WSR-88D radar in Melbourne with the program GR2Analyst. Cases that were found to be isolated and not involved with convection were recorded (date, start/end time, location) in a database. Radar data associated with these cases was collected and gridded using Python radar packages. Once gridded, I calculated and recorded for each radar scan the following radar reflectivity driven parameters within an 11x11 km bin centered on each 1 square km grid point: the mean reflectivity colder than 0 degrees Celsius, Maximum Radar Reflectivity (MRR) colder than 0 degrees Celsius, Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR), Hydrometeor Identification (HID), the difference between the maximum and mean reflectivity, the cloud depth colder than 0 degrees Celsius, the overall cloud depth, the cloud top, and the cloud bottom. Soundings for each event were used to determine cloud temperature levels, and where the cloud is in relation to the freezing level. Electric field mill data collected over the Eastern Range was used to determine surface electric fields below each cloud. All parameters were analyzed in depth for several thick cloud cases to gain an understanding of typical thick cloud characteristics. Cases of thick clouds and other isolated cloud types were also recorded for training purposes to see if enough differences exist between cloud types to differentiate them with an algorithm. Each case along with its corresponding characteristics was recorded in a database, and this database was used to compare differing cloud types, as well as train the algorithm to detect thick clouds.

Lightning↗

Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Model Identification from Flight Data

Uncertainty modeling is a critical element in the estimation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction and robust flight control system development. There has been a serious deficiency to date in aeroservoelastic data analysis with attention to uncertainty modeling. Uncertainty can be estimated from flight data using both parametric and nonparametric identification techniques. The model validation problem addressed in this paper is to identify aeroservoelastic models with associated uncertainty structures from a limited amount of controlled excitation inputs over an extensive flight envelope. The challenge to this problem is to update analytical models from flight data estimates while also deriving non-conservative uncertainty descriptions consistent with the flight data. Multisine control surface command inputs and control system feedbacks are used as signals in a wavelet-based modal parameter estimation procedure for model updates. Transfer function estimates are incorporated in a robust minimax estimation scheme to get input-output parameters and error bounds consistent with the data and model structure. Uncertainty estimates derived from the data in this manner provide an appropriate and relevant representation for model development and robust stability analysis. This model-plus-uncertainty identification procedure is applied to aeroservoelastic flight data from the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-18 Systems Research Aircraft.

Brenner, Martin J.↗

LaSDI: Parametric Latent Space Dynamics Identification

Enabling fast and accurate physical simulations with data has become an important area of computational physics to aid in inverse problems, design-optimization, uncertainty quantification, and other various decision-making applications. This paper presents a data-driven framework for parametric latent space dynamics identification procedure that enables fast and accurate simulations. The parametric model is achieved by building a set of local latent space model and designing an interaction among them. An individual local latent space dynamics model achieves accurate solution in a trust region. By letting the set of trust region to cover the whole parameter space, our model shows an increase in accuracy with an increase in training data. Herein we introduce two different types of interaction mechanisms, i.e., point-wise and region-based approach. Both linear and nonlinear data compression techniques are used. We illustrate the framework of Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI) enable a fast and accurate solution process on various partial differential equations, i.e., Burgers’ equations, radial advection problem, and nonlinear heat conduction problem, achieving 0 (100)x speed-up and 0 (1)% relative error with respect to the corresponding full order models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Melting Point Depression and Phase Identification of Sugar Alcohols Encapsulated in ZIF Nanopores

Sugar alcohols (SAs) have attractive characteristics as phase-change materials, but their relatively high melting temperature limits their application in the real world. Nanoconfinement can be a useful parameter to reduce the melting temperature to pragmatic ranges. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we investigate the phases and behaviors of encapsulated SA in ZIF-8 and ZIF-11, which cannot be experimentally observed. Based on reliable partial charges for the zeolitic imidazolate framework (ZIF) structures calculated by a density functional theory, structural analysis shows that the SA’s attractive interaction with the ZIF structure frustrates the SA crystallization and also elucidates the second-order phase transition between amorphous phases. A methodology is suggested to determine the phase transition temperature of confined materials and used to quantify the melting temperature depression of the ZIF-confined SAs. We also explored the thermal conductivity of SA-in-ZIF composites. Phonon frequency analysis verifies that the presence of SA molecules enhances the heat transfer by adding heat pathways between the nanoporous structure of ZIFs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

System identification test using active members

A modal test using active members as the excitation source has been performed on the Precision Truss. Using the step sine testing technique, the frequency response functions are obtained and the modal parameters are extracted by the curve-fitting method. Total of 10 global modes and 3 local modes are obtained. The results are compared with those obtained by the conventional external excitation test.

Chen, Jay-Chung↗

Parametric Robust Control and System Identification: Unified Approach

During the period of this support, a new control system design and analysis method has been studied. This approach deals with control systems containing uncertainties that are represented in terms of its transfer function parameters. Such a representation of the control system is common and many physical parameter variations fall into this type of uncertainty. Techniques developed here are capable of providing nonconservative analysis of such control systems with parameter variations. We have also developed techniques to deal with control systems when their state space representations are given rather than transfer functions. In this case, the plant parameters will appear as entries of state space matrices. Finally, a system modeling technique to construct such systems from the raw input - output frequency domain data has been developed.

Keel, L. H.↗

How to identify different new neutrino oscillation physics scenarios at DUNE

Next generation neutrino oscillation experiments are expected to measure the remaining oscillation parameters with very good precision. They will have unprecedented capabilities to search for new physics that modify oscillations. DUNE, with its broad band beam, good particle identification, and relatively high energies will provide an excellent environment to search for new physics. If deviations from the standard three-flavor oscillation picture are seen however, it is crucial to know which new physics scenario is found so that it can be verified elsewhere and theoretically understood. We investigate several benchmark new physics scenarios by looking at existing long-baseline accelerator neutrino data from NOvA and T2K and determine at what sensitivity DUNE can differentiate among them. We consider sterile neutrinos and both vector and scalar non-standard neutrino interactions, all with new complex phases, the latter of which could conceivably provide absolute neutrino mass scale information. We find that, in many interesting cases, DUNE will have good model discrimination. We also perform a new fit to NOvA and T2K data with scalar NSI.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Defect and satellite characteristics of additive manufacturing metal powders

Metal additive manufacturing (AM) requires high-quality metal powders to three-dimensionally (3D) print metallic components with complex and customizable geometries. The lack of quantification of AM metal powders creates quality control challenges for 3D printed components, increases the uncertainty of printing reliability and net cost of inspected and certified printed components, and reduces the recyclability of used powders. However, critical characteristics of AM metal powders that are decisive factors for the 3D printing process, such as internal porosity, contamination, and satellite feature, remain ambiguous. In this work, we developed a novel approach to 3D quantify key characteristics of AM metal powders down to individual particles by using high-resolution synchrotron x-ray computed tomography. Empowered by the penetrative capability of high-energy x-ray, internal porosity and contamination within as-atomized metal powders from high-entropy alloys to nickel-based superalloys were evaluated. Additionally, the newly-developed dispersion method enables the homogeneous separation of individual particles, and consequently, results in the implementation of 3D particle shape analysis. To resolve a major challenge of identification and quantification of satellite-feature particles in as-atomized AM metal powders, the satellite features were quantitated by modeling and analyzing the shape parameter of local thickness variance. Furthermore, the 3D analytical methods of particle assessment in this study can be applied to other materials systems like rock, food, and pharmaceutical particles, and provide insights for process optimization across powder metallurgy, concrete, food and pharmaceutical manufacturing, and AM industries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Learning emergent partial differential equations in a learned emergent space

We propose an approach to learn effective evolution equations for large systems of interacting agents. This is demonstrated on two examples, a well-studied system of coupled normal form oscillators and a biologically motivated example of coupled Hodgkin-Huxley-like neurons. For such types of systems there is no obvious space coordinate in which to learn effective evolution laws in the form of partial differential equations. In our approach, we accomplish this by learning embedding coordinates from the time series data of the system using manifold learning as a first step. In these emergent coordinates, we then show how one can learn effective partial differential equations, using neural networks, that do not only reproduce the dynamics of the oscillator ensemble, but also capture the collective bifurcations when system parameters vary. The proposed approach thus integrates the automatic, data-driven extraction of emergent space coordinates parametrizing the agent dynamics, with machine-learning assisted identification of an emergent PDE description of the dynamics in this parametrization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Automated algorithms to build active galactic nucleus classifiers

ABSTRACT We present a machine learning model to classify active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and galaxies (AGN-galaxy classifier) and a model to identify type 1 (optically unabsorbed) and type 2 (optically absorbed) AGN (type 1/2 classifier). We test tree-based algorithms, using training samples built from the X-ray Multi-Mirror Mission–Newton (XMM–Newton) catalogue and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), with labels derived from the SDSS survey. The performance was tested making use of simulations and of cross-validation techniques. With a set of features including spectroscopic redshifts and X-ray parameters connected to source properties (e.g. fluxes and extension), as well as features related to X-ray instrumental conditions, the precision and recall for AGN identification are 94 and 93 per cent, while the type 1/2 classifier has a precision of 74 per cent and a recall of 80 per cent for type 2 AGNs. The performance obtained with photometric redshifts is very similar to that achieved with spectroscopic redshifts in both test cases, while there is a decrease in performance when excluding redshifts. Our machine learning model trained on X-ray features can accurately identify AGN in extragalactic surveys. The type 1/2 classifier has a valuable performance for type 2 AGNs, but its ability to generalize without redshifts is hampered by the limited census of absorbed AGN at high redshift.

Falocco, S. (ORCID:0000000299841103)↗

F-8C adaptive flight control extensions

An adaptive concept which combines gain-scheduled control laws with explicit maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) identification to provide the scheduling values is described. The MLE algorithm was improved by incorporating attitude data, estimating gust statistics for setting filter gains, and improving parameter tracking during changing flight conditions. A lateral MLE algorithm was designed to improve true air speed and angle of attack estimates during lateral maneuvers. Relationships between the pitch axis sensors inherent in the MLE design were examined and used for sensor failure detection. Design details and simulation performance are presented for each of the three areas investigated.

Stein, G.↗

Inverse problems in the modeling of vibrations of flexible beams

The formulation and solution of inverse problems for the estimation of parameters which describe damping and other dynamic properties in distributed models for the vibration of flexible structures is considered. Motivated by a slewing beam experiment, the identification of a nonlinear velocity dependent term which models air drag damping in the Euler-Bernoulli equation is investigated. Galerkin techniques are used to generate finite dimensional approximations. Convergence estimates and numerical results are given. The modeling of, and related inverse problems for the dynamics of a high pressure hose line feeding a gas thruster actuator at the tip of a cantilevered beam are then considered. Approximation and convergence are discussed and numerical results involving experimental data are presented.

Banks, H. T.↗

A Review of Diagnostic Techniques for ISHM Applications

System diagnosis is an integral part of any Integrated System Health Management application. Diagnostic applications make use of system information from the design phase, such as safety and mission assurance analysis, failure modes and effects analysis, hazards analysis, functional models, fault propagation models, and testability analysis. In modern process control and equipment monitoring systems, topological and analytic , models of the nominal system, derived from design documents, are also employed for fault isolation and identification. Depending on the complexity of the monitored signals from the physical system, diagnostic applications may involve straightforward trending and feature extraction techniques to retrieve the parameters of importance from the sensor streams. They also may involve very complex analysis routines, such as signal processing, learning or classification methods to derive the parameters of importance to diagnosis. The process that is used to diagnose anomalous conditions from monitored system signals varies widely across the different approaches to system diagnosis. Rule-based expert systems, case-based reasoning systems, model-based reasoning systems, learning systems, and probabilistic reasoning systems are examples of the many diverse approaches ta diagnostic reasoning. Many engineering disciplines have specific approaches to modeling, monitoring and diagnosing anomalous conditions. Therefore, there is no "one-size-fits-all" approach to building diagnostic and health monitoring capabilities for a system. For instance, the conventional approaches to diagnosing failures in rotorcraft applications are very different from those used in communications systems. Further, online and offline automated diagnostic applications are integrated into an operations framework with flight crews, flight controllers and maintenance teams. While the emphasis of this paper is automation of health management functions, striking the correct balance between automated and human-performed tasks is a vital concern.

Patterson-Hine, Ann↗

Dual Extended Kalman Filter for the Identification of Time-Varying Human Manual Control Behavior

A Dual Extended Kalman Filter was implemented for the identification of time-varying human manual control behavior. Two filters that run concurrently were used, a state filter that estimates the equalization dynamics, and a parameter filter that estimates the neuromuscular parameters and time delay. Time-varying parameters were modeled as a random walk. The filter successfully estimated time-varying human control behavior in both simulated and experimental data. Simple guidelines are proposed for the tuning of the process and measurement covariance matrices and the initial parameter estimates. The tuning was performed on simulation data, and when applied on experimental data, only an increase in measurement process noise power was required in order for the filter to converge and estimate all parameters. A sensitivity analysis to initial parameter estimates showed that the filter is more sensitive to poor initial choices of neuromuscular parameters than equalization parameters, and bad choices for initial parameters can result in divergence, slow convergence, or parameter estimates that do not have a real physical interpretation. The promising results when applied to experimental data, together with its simple tuning and low dimension of the state-space, make the use of the Dual Extended Kalman Filter a viable option for identifying time-varying human control parameters in manual tracking tasks, which could be used in real-time human state monitoring and adaptive human-vehicle haptic interfaces.

manual control↗

Specific Power and Efficiency Projections of Electric Machines and Circuit Protection Exploration for Aircraft Applications

The purpose of this paper is to generate specific power and efficiency projections through the year 2050 for electric machines for aircraft applications. A general literature review was performed to identify the types of electric machines that are commonly used and which types have the biggest potential for future aircraft applications due to their high specific power and efficiency. A database with historical data was built to include parameters such as weight [kg], rated power [kW], specific power [kW/kg], RPM, efficiency, year, motor cooling type, application type and motor type to allow for trend identification and accurate projections. Once the data was gathered, multiple curve fits on the historical data were generated and extrapolated to produce the projections for specific power according to conservative, nominal and aggressive projection scenarios. A different process was followed for the efficiency projections due to the scattered nature of the data. A state of the art (SoA) value for efficiency was identified through literature review and was used to create the conservative, nominal and aggressive projections for the time frames of 2030, 2040, and 2050. The efficiency and the specific power projections of EMs for 2050 are 0.989 and 50kW/kg respectively. This paper will also be examining circuit protection as it is an additional component of electric powertrains.

electric machines↗

Identifying Indicators of Harmful Algal Blooms in Coastal Atacama Using Satellite Image Processing Techniques to Improve Industry and Authority Response

Over the past decade, Chile has experienced a significant rise in both the frequency and intensity of coastal Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). These bloom events are a growing concern for the Atacama Region especially, with potential impacts on human health, aquaculture, and the environment. HABs are caused by an excess proliferation of microalgae, with certain algae species commonly found in Chilean HABs capable of producing toxins which can poison fish, toxify shellfish, and cause illness or death when ingested by humans. Collaborating with the Ministry of Health of Chile, Centro de Información de Recursos Naturales, the University of Atacama, and the Embassy of Chile’s Agricultural Office, this study identifies potential indicators of HABs in the Coastal Atacama Region using NASA Earth observations. Satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument onboard NASA’s Aqua satellite was used for the identification of chlorophyll-a which provides direct estimates of the algae pigment’s concentration in water bodies. In addition, the spatiotemporal patterns of several other parameters were examined to identify correlations with occurrences of HABs, including sea surface temperature and normalized fluorescence line height using Aqua MODIS, Normalized Difference Turbidity Index (NDTI) using Landsat 8, and ocean wind speed measurements from the NOAA Joint Polar Satellite System. Analysis of these patterns revealed hotspots of high chlorophyll-a concentrations from the years 2014 to 2022, the most major of which occurring in the coastal zones of Chañaral, Bahía Inglesa, and Huasco. Also, through the use of a similarity search conducted, the seasonal variation of these indicators was mapped to highlight areas with great likelihood of experiencing HABs in the future. The results can guide future efforts for in-situ water sampling, toxin analysis and assessment, and HAB monitoring and prevention.

Cody O'Ferrall↗