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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Overlooked trade-offs of environmentally protective hydropower operation: Impacts to ancillary services and greenhouse gas emissions

The relicensing of large hydropower projects in the United States often enforces environmental constraints such as minimum instream flows. These requirements can reduce hydropower's negative environmental impacts but may come at a cost of reduced electric generation and revenue. During the federal hydropower relicensing process, participants negotiate these environmental and economic trade-offs based on coarse models, often conflating impacts on generation and revenue, overlooking ancillary services (AS) markets, and ignoring potential greenhouse gas (GHG) implications. Using a case study of a 362-MW hydropower project in California, this research conducts higher resolution modelling to compare energy generation, AS provision, revenue, and GHG impacts of two hydropower operating regimes. The environmentally protective regime reduces average generation by 6% but increases AS provision by 2%. Total average revenue decreases by 3.5% under environmental constraints using current electricity prices (and by only 1.1% when modelled with projected 2030 electricity prices), indicating that generation impacts should not be equated with revenue impacts during relicensing. In the California electricity market, this reduced hydropower generation is replaced primarily by natural gas, resulting in an estimated 30,000 additional tons of CO 2 emitted annually. Furthermore, these positive and negative externalities are not adequately examined in the hydropower relicensing process.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Robustness of Quadratic Hedging Strategies in Finance via Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps

We consider a backward stochastic differential equation with jumps (BSDEJ) which is driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We present two candidate-approximations to this BSDEJ and we prove that the solution of each candidate-approximation converges to the solution of the original BSDEJ in a space which we specify. We use this result to investigate in further detail the consequences of the choice of the model to (partial) hedging in incomplete markets in finance. As an application, we consider models in which the small variations in the price dynamics are modeled with a Poisson random measure with infinite activity and models in which these small variations are modeled with a Brownian motion or are cut off. Using the convergence results on BSDEJs, we show that quadratic hedging strategies are robust towards the approximation of the market prices and we derive an estimation of the model risk.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds

Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model inter-comparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate.

McCollum, David↗
DOE OSTI2018

Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison

We present an overview of results from 11 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on the viability of large-scale deployment of bioenergy for achieving long-run climate goals. The study explores future bioenergy use across models under harmonized scenarios for future climate policies, availability of bioenergy technologies, and constraints on biomass supply. This paper provides a more transparent description of IAMs that span a broad range of assumptions regarding model structures, energy sectors, and bioenergy conversion chains. Without emission constraints, we find vastly different CO 2 emission and bioenergy deployment patterns across models due to differences in competition with fossil fuels, the possibility to produce large-scale bio-liquids, and the flexibility of energy systems. Imposing increasingly stringent carbon budgets mostly increases bioenergy use. A diverse set of available bioenergy technology portfolios provides flexibility to allocate bioenergy to supply different final energy as well as remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by combining bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS). Sector and regional bioenergy allocation varies dramatically across models mainly due to bioenergy technology availability and costs, final energy patterns, and availability of alternative decarbonization options. Although much bioenergy is used in combination with CCS, BECCS is not necessarily the driver of bioenergy use. We find that the flexibility to use biomass feedstocks in different energy sub-sectors makes large-scale bioenergy deployment a robust strategy in mitigation scenarios that is surprisingly insensitive with respect to reduced technology availability. However, the achievability of stringent carbon budgets and associated carbon prices is sensitive. Constraints on biomass feedstock supply increase the carbon price less significantly than excluding BECCS because carbon removals are still realized and valued. Incremental sensitivity tests find that delayed readiness of bioenergy technologies until 2050 is more important than potentially higher investment costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic and life cycle analyses for a supercritical biodiesel production process from waste cooking oil for a plant located in the Midwest United States

Existing literature lacks detailed techno-economic and environmental life cycle analyses (TEA-LCA) focused on supercritical biodiesel production pathways produced via waste products. Therefore, in this work, the TEA-LCA was conducted to generate supercritical biodiesel from waste cooking oil for plants located in the Midwest region of USA having annual production capacities of 10,600 and 128,000 t using Aspen Plus and GREET softwares. Here, two plant production capacities were chosen to capture the economies of scale impact on biodiesel manufacture cost. In the supercritical process, methanol and propane were used as a cosolvent to synthesize biodiesel from waste cooking oil (WCO) at 280 °C and 128 bar at a residence time of 8.4 min and a WCO conversion rate of 97%. Economic analysis revealed that the supercritical process was an economically attractive pathway with a 2-year payback period for the 10,600 t/year capacity along with a break-even selling price of $\$$ 2.42/gal of diesel. In case of the larger plant (128,000 t/year capacity), the payback period and the breakeven selling price were considerably lower at values of 0.4 years and $1.31/gal of diesel, respectively, due to economies of scale impact. The generated biodiesel from supercritical process for the both the plant capacities met European (EN14214) and US (ASTM D6751) fuel quality standards while the obtained commercially valuable side product, i.e., glycerol, adhered to a pharmaceutical grade of 99.7%. Cradle to gate life cycle analysis using GREET revealed that supercritical process possessed 17% lower CO2 emissions than alkali-catalyzed process and 4% lower CO2 emissions than the conventional diesel production process. Other biodiesel production pathways in the literature were also compared to the results of the TEA-LCA of supercritical biodiesel production pathway.

Biodiesel production↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Sizing and Dispatch of Solar Power with Storage

Designers of utility-scale solar plants with storage, seeking to maximize some aspect of plant performance, face multiple challenges. In many geographic locations, there is significant penetration of photovoltaic generation, which depresses energy prices during the hours of solar availability. An energy storage system affords the opportunity to dispatch during higher-priced time periods, but complicates plant design and dispatch decisions. Solar resource variability compounds these challenges, because determining optimal system sizes requires simultaneously considering how the plant will be operated under the imposed market and weather conditions. We develop an approach to analyze the economic performance of hybrid and single-technology solar power plants, which incorporates optimal dispatch, and considers the expected electricity market and weather conditions. We utilize the System Advisor Model software package to simulate the operation of multiple renewable generation and energy storage technologies, in conjunction with hourly-fidelity generation decisions determined by a revenue-maximizing, mixed-integer linear program. We show that, under our assumed market and weather conditions, the lifetime benefit-to-cost ratio can be improved by 6 to 19 percent, relative to a baseline design without optimizing, and that a concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage design produces significantly more energy per year, but is less profitable under our cost assumptions.

black-box optimization↗
DOE OSTI2012

Prospects for Non-Rare Earth Permanent Magnets for Traction Motors and Generators

With the advent of high-flux density permanent magnets based on rare earth elements such as neodymium (Nd) in the 1980s, permanent magnet-based electric machines had a clear performance and cost advantage over induction machines when weight and size were factors such as in hybrid electric vehicles and wind turbines. However, the advantages of the permanent magnet-based electric machines may be overshadowed by supply constraints and high prices of their key constituents, rare earth elements, which have seen nearly a 10-fold increase in price in the last 5 years and the imposition of export limits by the major producing country, China, since 2010. We outline the challenges, prospects, and pitfalls for several potential alloys that could replace Nd-based permanent magnets with more abundant and less strategically important elements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Economic Model and Experiments to Understand Aluminum-Cerium Alloy Recycling

We provide an economic model to understand the impact of adoption, sorting and pricing of scrap on the recycling of a new aluminum-cerium (AlCe) alloy for use in engine blocks in the automobile industry. The goal of the laboratory portion of this study is to investigate possible effects of cerium contamination on well-established aluminum recycling streams. Here, our methodology includes three components: (1) focused data gathering from industry supply chain participants, (2) experimental data through laboratory experiments to understand the impact of cerium on existing alloys and (3) an economic model to understand pricing incentives on a recycler’s separation of AlCe engine blocks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Understanding recent market trends of the US ESCO industry

The US energy services company (ESCO) industry is an example of a private-sector business model that delivers energy savings to customers primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. US ESCO projects garner significant incremental annual savings: approximately 1% of total US commercial building consumption in 2014. From 2000 to 2011, the industry experienced year over year growth; however, based on information drawn from interviews with ESCO executives conducted in late 2015, the authors find that from 2012 to 2014, ESCO industry revenues did not increase. While public and institutional market sectors accounted for 85% of industry revenue in 2014, consistent with previous research findings, the share of revenue from performance contracting increased to 74% in 2014, as compared to 69% share reported for 2011 and 2008. The revenue numbers between 2011 and 2014 are not fully comparable, because a few ESCOs that were subsidiaries of larger companies had undergone reorganization and some categories of revenue reported in 2011 were not included for 2014. Other factors that may have contributed to the recent revenue trend include the following: (1) increased competition from companies not historically defined as an ESCO (e.g. mechanical contractors), (2) uncertainty among some potential customers about committing to long-term performance contracts, and (3) reduction of performance contracting’s perceived benefit of hedging energy price increases and variability due to customer expectations of continued low and less volatile energy prices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Optimal carbon capture and storage contracts using historical CO 2 emissions levels

In an effort to reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to the atmosphere, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has been developed to collect CO 2 from emissions generators and store it underground. Recent proposed legislation would limit the volume of emissions generated from power sources, effectively requiring some sources to participate in CCS. Both emissions sources and storage operators require incentives to enter into contracts to capture excess emissions at the source, and transport and store the CO 2 underground. As the level of emissions from power plants is stochastic and carryover into future time periods is expensive, we develop a newsvendor model to determine the optimal price and volume of these contracts to maximize the expected profit of the storage operator and encourage the participation of multiple emissions sources. Because the storage operator has a limit on the amount of CO 2 that can be injected each month, this limit affects the allocation of the optimal contract amounts between the emitters. Furthermore, the distribution of emissions and relative costs of transportation also influence the optimal policy. In addition to analytical solutions, we present data-driven methods for using correlated emissions data to determine the optimal price and volume of these contracts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Special issue: Application of biotechnology for biofuels: transforming biomass to biofuels

Rising energy prices and depleting reserves of fossil fuels continue to renew interest in the conversion of biomass to biofuels production. Biofuels derived from renewable feedstocks are environmentally friendly fuels and have the potential to meet more than a quarter of world demand for transportation fuels by 2050. Moreover, biofuels are expected to reduce reliance on imported petroleum, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and stimulate regional economies by creating jobs and increasing demand and prices for bioproducts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Valuing catastrophe bonds involving correlation and CIR interest rate model

Natural catastrophes lead to problems of insurance and reinsurance industry. Classic insurance mechanisms are often inadequate for dealing with consequences of catastrophic events. Therefore, new financial instruments, including catastrophe bonds (cat bonds), were developed. In this paper we price the catastrophe bonds with a generalized payoff structure, assuming that the bondholder’s payoff depends on an underlying asset driven by a stochastic jump-diffusion process. Simultaneously, the risk-free spot interest rate has also a stochastic form and is described by the multi-factor Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model. We assume the possibility of correlation between the Brownian part of the underlying asset and the components of the interest rate model. Using stochastic methods, we prove the valuation formula, which can be applied to the cat bonds with various payoff functions. We use adaptive Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the numerical properties of the obtained pricing formula for various settings, including some similar to the practical cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rare earth element potential in coal and coal ash in the U.S. Gulf Coast

United States heavy reliance on imports of critical minerals (CMs), including rare earth elements (REEs), underscores the importance of development of domestic sources. The study objective was to quantify CM and REE concentrations in coal and coal ash in the US Gulf Coast region. CM and REE concentrations were measured for 118 samples from outcrops and 14 mines in the Gulf Coast. Results show that total REE + Yttrium (REY) concentrations (dry coal basis) are comparable to those of the upper continental crust (UCC) with localized hot spots, such as the Texas Gibbons Creek mine (REY ≤ ~ 2860 ppm). When normalized to UCC REY concentration (169 ppm, dry coal basis), REY to UCC ratios for Gulf Coast coal samples range from 0.1 to 17 (median ratio 0.6). REE extractability from lignites is high (median: 63%–93%) using environmentally benign weak acid. In addition to raw coal, coal ash from power plants could also serve as an REE source with a median ratio of REY in ash relative to coal of 4; however, extractability from coal ash is generally much lower (≤ 5% using the same weak acid as in coal). The median basket price for extracted REY as oxides from coal, assuming 70% extractability, is $\$3.2$ per tonne of coal and $\$186$ billion based on 58 billion metric tonnes of dry coal in the Gulf Coast. REEs important for magnets (Pr + Nd + Tb + Dy) account for ~ 80% of the total value. The corresponding median basket price for extracted REY as oxides from coal ash, assuming ~ 30% extractability, is ~$\$4.4$ per tonne of ash and $\$1.2$ billion based on 258 million tonnes of ash. REE production from coal would likely require co-products, such as activated carbon or humic acids, to attain economic viability. Production of REEs from coal ash could offset remediation costs related to potential water contamination. This reconnaissance study shows the potential for REE production from coal and coal ash in the Gulf Coast; however, carbon coproducts and/or societal benefits would likely be required for socioeconomic viability.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cultivating clarity: understanding the impact of land cost assumptions on biofuel viability

The transition to sustainable energy has increased interest in biofuel production to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, decrease reliance on imported oil, and ensure energy resilience. Here, this study examines the often-overlooked impact of land cost assumptions on the economic viability of biofuel production. Using a discounted cash flow techno-economic framework, we evaluated three land cost scenarios—no land costs, land rental costs, and land purchase costs—across six bioenergy feedstocks (corn, soybeans, switchgrass, miscanthus, poplar, and microalgae) and three biofuel products (corn ethanol, soybean biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel) at the county level for the contiguous United States. The analysis reveals substantial variation in minimum fuel selling prices due to these scenarios. High-yield crops like algae showed low sensitivity to land costs, while low-yield crops such as soybeans were highly sensitive. Geographical differences were significant, with minimum fuel selling price increases most pronounced in high-value land regions like the Corn Belt. Case studies further illustrate the influence of local productivity and land costs on economic outcomes across the United States. These findings emphasize the importance of maintaining consistent land cost assumptions in biofuel economic assessments. By quantifying the interplay between land value, crop productivity, and economic feasibility, this study provides essential insights for policymakers and stakeholders to advance sustainable energy solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network Optimization of the Electrosynthesis of Chemicals from CO2

Carbon dioxide electroreduction (ECO2R) is gaining attention due to its capacity to mitigate CO2 emissions while using electricity that would otherwise be curtailed. Its foreseeable industrial implementation requires of holistic methods to assess the technological and economic performance of ECO2R processes and integrate them in current chemical supply chains and power systems. Here, we combine techno-economic assessment and mathematical programming to find the optimal paths to electroreduce CO2 into valuable chemicals under variable electricity prices. The proposed approach is tested with a case study addressing the CO2 capture from flue gas or direct air and its electricity-powered reduction into carbon monoxide, formic acid or multi-carbon compounds. The results obtained demonstrate the ability of the framework to build ECO2R networks and provide operation profiles that respond to fluctuating electricity prices.

carbon dioxide↗
DOE OSTI2013

Development of Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Upgrading Technologies for Lipid-Extracted Algae Conversion to Liquid Fuels

Bench-scale tests were performed for lipid-extracted microalgae (LEA) conversion to liquid fuels via hydrotreating liquefaction (HTL) and upgrading processes. Process simulation and economic analysis for a large-scale LEA HTL and upgrading system were developed based on the best available test results. The system assumes an LEA feed rate of 608 dry metric ton/day and that the feedstock is converted to a crude HTL bio-oil and further upgraded via hydrotreating and hydrocracking to produce liquid hydrocarbon fuels, mainly alkanes. Performance and cost results demonstrate that HTL would be an effective option to convert LEA to liquid fuel. The liquid fuels annual yield was estimated to be 26.9 million gallon gasoline-equivalent and the overall energy efficiency at higher heating value basis was estimated to be 69.5%. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) was estimated to be $0.75/L with LEA feedstock price at $33.1 metric ton at dry basis and 10% internal rate of return. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the largest effects to production cost would come from the final products yields and the upgrading equipments cost. The impact of plant scale on MFSP was also investigated.

Microalgae, Lipid extracted algae, Hydrothermal li↗