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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

COG Beta-Effective Benchmarks

COG 11.3 calculations with the “new method” using ENDF/B-VIII.0 data are shown to produce results with |C/E – 1| < 3σ in all cases, whereas the other methods produce a few minor outliers. Furthermore, the “new method” using ENDF/B-VIII.0 data is observed to produce “over” and “under” results consistent with 50/50 expectations whereas the other methods appear to be slightly over or under predicting. JEFF-3.3 results are slightly larger overall than ENDF/B-VIII.0 results. In all but a few cases, it is also observed that $F_d/F_t ≥ (vF)_d/(vF)_t ≥ 1 – (k_{prompt}/k_{eff})$ and all estimators produce equivalent results for the most thermal systems. In those other cases, this relation holds within the given statistics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The natural history of Halley's comet

The 1986 apparition of Halley's comet will be the subject of numerous space probes, planned to determine the chemical nature and physical structure of comet nuclei, atmospheres, and ionospheres, as well as comet tails. The problems of cometary origin remain inconclusive, with theories ranging from a purely interstellar origin to their being ejecta from the Galilean satellites of Jupiter. Comets can be grouped into one of two classes, depending on their periodicity, and statistical mechanics of the entire Jovian family of comets can be examined under the equilibrium hypothesis. Comet anatomy estimations have been determined, and there is speculation that comet chemistry may have been a factor in the origin of life on earth. Halley's comet was first noted using Newton's dynamical methods, and Brady (1972) attempted to use the comet as a gravitational probe in search of a trans-Plutonian planet. Halley's orbit is calculated by combination of ancient observations and modern scientific methods.

Mclaughlin, W. I.↗

Avian Activity Classification Using Recurrent Networks to Fuse Videos with Metadata on Imbalanced Datasets

Activity classification plays a crucial role in various real-life scenarios involving both humans and animals. There is an increasing need for precise activity classification focused on avian-solar interactions, as the usage of solar energy facilities, such as photovoltaic array power stations, has been observed to impact bird species richness, behavior, and activity. However, there has been no work to develop an automated system to monitor and classify these avian-solar interactions. All current methods rely on human observers, which is time and human resources costly and subject to errors related to searcher efficiency. With the recent success of Deep Learning models in activity classification problems, this paper develops a recurrent neural network-based model to automatically classify six avian activities around solar energy facilities. Our proposed model integrates critical feature engineering metadata with video frame data, enabling improved learning and more accurate activity classification. Furthermore, we address the challenge of data imbalance during training and demonstrate the efficacy of our model in detecting and classifying different activities within video tracks. Additionally, we analyze the saliency/backpropagation map of the trained proposed model and validate its decision-making rationale.

Avian activity classification; bidirectional LSTM;↗

Progress of Cometary Science in the Past 100 Years

Enormous strides made by cometary science during the 20th century defy any meaningful comparison of its state 100 years ago and now. The great majority of the subfields enjoying much attention nowadays did not exist in the year 1900. Dramatic developments, especially in the past 30-50 years, have equally affected observational and theoretical studies of comets. The profound diversification of observing techniques has been documented by the ever widening limits on the electromagnetic spectrum covered. While the time around 1900 marked an early period of slow and painful experimentation with photographic methods in cometary studies, observations of comets from the x-ray region to the radio waves have by now become routine. Many of the new techniques, and all those involved with the wavelengths shorter than about 300 nm, were made possible by another major breakthrough of this century - observing from space. Experiments on dedicated Earth-orbiting satellites as well as several deep-space probes have provided fascinating new information on the nature and makeup of comets. In broader terms, much of the progress has been achieved thanks to fundamental discoveries and major advances in electronics, whose applications resulted in qualitatively new instruments (e.g. radiotelescopes) and sensors or detectors (e.g. CCD arrays). The most universal effect on the entire cometary science, from observing to data handling to quantitative interpretations, has been, as in any other branch of science, due to the introduction of electronic computers, with their processing capabilities not only unheard of, but literally unimaginable, in the age of classical desk calculators. As if all this should not be enough, the today's generations of comet scientists have, in addition, been blessed with nature's highly appreciated cooperation. Indeed, in the span of a dozen years, between 1985 and 1997, we were privileged to witness four remarkable cometary events: (i) a return of Halley's celebrated comet; (ii) the impact of an extensively fragmented comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 into Jupiter - a once-in-a-millenium episode; (iii) a closeup, appearance of a small but very active Earth-approaching comet Hyakutake; and (iv) an unforgettable celestial show of comet Hale-Bopp, one of the brightest and the most massive comets ever observed. We have been - and for many years to come will be - harvesting scientifically lucrative findings based on the flood of data accumulated during observational campaigns organized for these and other recent objects. Our understanding of cometary phenomena will continue to grow as observing techniques are further being improved and as more sophisticated theories are being developed. Recent accomplishments achieved in the rapidly expanding field of comets are certain to stimulate the members of this astronomical community in their quest for new discoveries in the 21st century!

Sekanina, Zdenek↗

Improving the Representation of Land Surface Processes Using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART)

The land surface is a critical part of the earth system as processes related to water, carbon, energy and nitrogen cycling have important implications for climate forcing, air quality, water availability and seasonal atmospheric forecasting. Despite advances in land surface modeling, land surface model performance is often limited because of errors related to initial and boundary conditions, model structure, and parameters. Data assimilation (DA) techniques combined with an expanding network of earth system observations present an opportunity to reduce these errors and improve simulations. Here, we emphasize the implementation of tools and approaches to overcome challenges related to land DA to constrain carbon and water cycling. In particular, we discuss the implementation of adaptive inflation to modify ensemble spread in response to time-varying networks of gridded observations. We also discuss methods to generate ensemble spread through boundary condition (meteorology) forcing that can be applied to site-level applications. Next, we describe the application of vertical localization upon surface soil moisture observations, and forward operators specifically designed for the assimilation of snow and solar-induced fluorescence observations. Finally, we discuss the potential benefit of a quantile conserving filter used to update bounded quantities (state or parameter values).

Brett Raczka↗

Uncertainty quantification of mass models using ensemble Bayesian model averaging

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in the rapid neutron capture ( r ) process. However, it is still a challenging task to estimate the size of uncertainty associated with the predictions of each mass model. In this work, a method called ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of one-neutron separation energies (S 1 n ) which are directly relevant in the calculations of r -process observables. Here, this Bayesian method provides a natural way to perform model averaging, selection, and uncertainty quantification, by combining the mass models as a mixture of normal distributions whose parameters are optimized against the experimental data, employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using the no-u-turn sampler. The EBMA model optimized with all the experimental S 1 n from the AME2003 nuclides are shown to provide reliable uncertainty estimates when tested with the new data in the AME2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Plasma density mapping in the solar wind through use of VHF radio to measure electron content

How the electron content between the Solar probe and the earth can be observed with a minimum of equipment and give a quantitative rationale for the use of a signal near 400 MHz to supplement the telecommunications signal is described. The emphasis is on the method of making content observations and on their value. While far from the Sun, the electron content is so low that the S-X dual-frequency system is insufficiently sensitive and a UHF system is optimum. As the probe approaches the Sun, the UHF may be disrupted by scintillation and the variations of the telecommunications signal must be used for the content measurement. By operating the suggested system in different modes as the solar distance changes, operation during the entire mission is possible.

Croft, T. A.↗

Neural Network Astronomy as a New Tool for Observing Bright and Compact Objects

We propose a new method for solving an important problem of astronomy that arises in observations with ultrahigh-angular-resolution interferometers. This method is based on the application of the theory of artificial neural networks. We propose and compute a multiparameter model for a celestial object like Sgr A*. For this model we have numerically constructed a number of probable images for neural network training. After neural network training on these images, the quality of its operation has been tested on another series of images from the same model. We have proven that a neural network can recognize and classify celestial objects (also obtained from interferometers) virtually no worse than can be done by a human.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Arrival time distributions of electrons in air showers with primary energies above 10 (18)eV observed at 900m above sea level

Detection of air showers with primary energies above 10 to the 19th power eV with sufficient statistics is extremely important in an astrophysical aspect related to the Greisen cut off and the origin of such high energy cosmic rays. Recently, a method is proposed to observe such giant air showers by measuring the arrival time distributions of air-shower particles at large core distances with a mini array. Experiments to measure the arrival time distributions of muons were started in 1981 and those of electrons in early 1983 in the Akeno air-shower array (930 gcm cm squared atmospheric depth, 900m above sea level). During the time of observation, the detection area of the Akeno array was expanded from 1 sq km to sq km in 1982 and to 20 sq km in 1984. Now the arrival time distribution of electrons and muons can be measured for showers with primary energies above 1019eV at large core distances.

Kakimoto, F.↗

Observational Needs for Improving Ocean and Coupled Reanalysis, S2S Prediction, and Decadal Prediction

Developments in ocean data assimilation (DA) and observing system technologies are intertwined. New observation types lead to new DA methods, and new DA methods such as Coupled Data Assimilation can change the value of existing observations or indicate where new observations can have greater utility for monitoring and prediction. Practitioners are encouraged to make better use of observations that are already available, for example in strongly coupled data assimilation where ocean observations can be used to improve atmospheric analyses and vice versa. Ocean reanalyses are useful for the analysis of climate,as well as initializing operational long-range prediction models. There are remaining challenges for ocean reanalyses due to biases and abrupt changes in the ocean observing system throughout its history, the presence of biases and drifts in models, and simplifying assumptions made in the DA methods. From a governance point of view, more support is needed to interface the observing community and the ocean DA community. For prediction applications, the ocean DA community must work with the ocean observing community to establish protocols for rapid communication of ocean observing data on NWP timescales. There is potential for new observations to enhance the observing system by supporting prediction on multiple timescales, ranging from the typical timescale of numerical weather prediction covering hours to weeks, out to multiple decades. It is highly encouraged that communication be fostered between thesecommunities to allow operational prediction centers the ability to provide guidance to the design of a sustained and adaptive observing network.

Ocean reanalysis↗

The formation and disintegration of magnetic bright points observed by sunrise/IMaX

The evolution of the physical parameters of magnetic bright points (MBPs) located in the quiet Sun (mainly in the interwork) during their lifetime is studied. First, we concentrate on the detailed description of the magnetic field evolution of three MBPs. This reveals that individual features follow different, generally complex, and rather dynamic scenarios of evolution. Next, we apply statistical methods on roughly 200 observed MBP evolutionary tracks. MBPs are found to be formed by the strengthening of an equipartition field patch, which initially exhibits a moderate downflow. During the evolution, strong downdrafts with an average velocity of 2.4 km s{sup –1} set in. These flows, taken together with the concurrent strengthening of the field, suggest that we are witnessing the occurrence of convective collapses in these features, although only 30% of them reach kG field strengths. This fraction might turn out to be larger when the new 4 m class solar telescopes are operational as observations of MBPs with current state of the art instrumentation could still be suffering from resolution limitations. Finally, when the bright point disappears (although the magnetic field often continues to exist) the magnetic field strength has dropped to the equipartition level and is generally somewhat weaker than at the beginning of the MBP's evolution. Also, only relatively weak downflows are found on average at this stage of the evolution. Only 16% of the features display upflows at the time that the field weakens, or the MBP disappears. This speaks either for a very fast evolving dynamic process at the end of the lifetime, which could not be temporally resolved, or against strong upflows as the cause of the weakening of the field of these magnetic elements, as has been proposed based on simulation results. It is noteworthy that in about 10% of the cases, we observe in the vicinity of the downflows small-scale strong (exceeding 2 km s{sup –1}) intergranular upflows related spatially and temporally to these downflows. The paper is complemented by a detailed discussion of aspects regarding the applied methods, the complementary literature, and in depth analysis of parameters like magnetic field strength and velocity distributions. An important difference to magnetic elements and associated bright structures in active region plage is that most of the quiet Sun bright points display significant downflows over a large fraction of their lifetime (i.e., in more than 46% of time instances/measurements they show downflows exceeding 1 km s{sup –1}).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Feasibility of Metal Oxide Glasses and Polymer Membranes as Sorbents for Gaseous Oxidized Mercury

Mass spectrometry methods are currently under development by the atmospheric mercury (Hg) research community to elucidate the identity of atmospheric oxidized mercury (Hg II ) compounds. Due to high instrument detection limits, materials that can quantitatively preconcentrate atmospheric Hg II without facilitating compound-altering chemical reactions are needed to support these methods. Cation exchange membranes (CEM) and nylon membranes are currently used to preconcentrate ambient Hg II for concentration measurements and Hg II compound estimation, respectively. However, CEM and nylon membranes are poor candidates for observations by mass spectrometry methods due to release of interfering compounds upon heating; glasses do not have this problem. Here, three metal oxide glasses were explored as potential alternatives for Hg II preconcentration for future use with mass spectrometry methods: calcium phosphate (CaP), iron phosphate (FeP), and calcium aluminate (CaAl). The glasses demonstrated quantitative selective capture of HgBr 2 without capture of Hg 0 . Under ambient conditions, the CaP, FeP, and CaAl sorbed 36.4 ± 12.6% of the total HgII as the CEM. However, when Hg concentrations were normalized to surface area, CaP, FeP, and CaAl sorbed more HgBr 2 in the laboratory and ambient HgII compared to CEM. The CEM and CaP retained similar concentrations of HgBr 2 when preloaded samples were deployed in the field. Additionally, a permeation tube-based calibrator was used to load sorbents with HgBr 2 for investigation of HgII retention on CEM and thermal desorption profile changes on nylon membranes during active sampling. Nylon membranes were purchased from three vendors and used to compare HgBr 2 retention; a different HgBr 2 thermal desorption profile was achieved for each vendor’s nylon membrane.

Amides↗

Characteristics of coronal shock waves and solar type 2 radio bursts

In the solar corona shock waves generated by flares and/or coronal mass ejections can be observed by radio astronomical methods in terms of solar type 2 radio bursts. In dynamic radio spectra they appear as emission stripes slowly drifting from high to low frequencies. A sample of 25 solar type 2 radio bursts observed in the range of 40 - 170 MHz with a time resolution of 0.1 s by the new radiospectrograph of the Astrophvsikalisches Institut Potsdam in Tremsdorf is statistically investigated concerning their spectral features, i.e, drift rate, instantaneous bandwidth, and fundamental harmonic ratio. In-situ plasma wave measurements at interplanetary shocks provide the assumption that type 2 radio radiation is emitted in the vicinity of the transition region of shock waves. Thus, the instantaneous bandwidth of a solar type 2 radio burst would reflect the density jump across the associated shock wave. Comparing the inspection of the Rankine-Hugoniot relations of shock waves under coronal circumstances with those obtained from the observational study, solar type 2 radio bursts should be regarded to be generated by weak supercritical, quasi-parallel, fast magnetosonic shock waves in the corona.

Mann, G.↗

Compositional Methods for Schrödinger's Equation with Application to Optimal Control

The evolution of the state of a quantum computer is governed by Schrödinger's equation. We introduce compositional methods, a way to increase the order of symmetric methods by replacing one timestep by multiple timesteps. We perform several numerical experiments, including a simulation of a two qubit CNOT gate, using compositional variants of Störmer-Verlet and the implicit midpoint rule. We observe that the compositional methods demonstrate greater computational efficiency than the base methods when the desired error tolerance is less than ~ 10 -4 to 10 -5 . We discuss the trade-offs of using each compositional method, as well as differences between using Störmer-Verlet or the implicit midpoint rule as the base integrator of the compositional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Determination of Satellite Orbits from Radar Data

An optimum method for determining satellite orbits from radar data is presented in this report. Offering a good combination of speed and accuracy, the method makes use of orbit inclination and orbit elements in the plane, and proceeds with a differential correction of the orbit elements. Rapid, accurate methods of computing orbit elements are required to predict satellite positions for acquisition by other radars at points later along the orbit. In some cases the data are limited to a single pass over the observing station. The dynamical method is described in detail, and its accuracy is compared with those of two other methods: the purely geometrical, and the least-squares geometrical. By this optimum method the computing time, including the differential correction time, is 1 minute. Without differential correction, the rough determination takes from 10 to 20 seconds with approximately 5 miles positional uncertainty.

Cahill, W. F.↗

Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of these mixed results is discussed with respect to the source term estimates.

OMI SO2↗