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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

Use of Climate Change Projections for Resilience Planning in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In this study we use three different methodologies to document and compare temperature and precipitation projections for the city of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) over the 21st century. It aims to explore in what way the differences and similarities of those methodologies and their outcomes support the incorporation of climate risks in urban planning and improve effective urban climate change governance. We compared the projections for RJ from the Eta Regional Climate Model from the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research nested in two Hadley Center Global Climate Models (GCMs) (Eta-HadCM3 method and Eta-HadGEM2-ES method) and 33 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-model dataset (Urban Climate Change Research Network - UCCRN method). The three methods showed increasing temperatures for RJ at the end of the century. Precipitation projections span a 13% decrease to a 12% increase when using the UCCRN method or are reduced between 0.4 and 0.5%, when using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES method. However, the middle range of the projections from UCCRN and Eta-HadGEM2-ES is similar. The three methods project an increase of warm days and nights and a decrease of cold days and nights. Nevertheless, although the directions of change are the same applying the three methods, the magnitude differs when considering warm and cold nights. Hence, city stakeholders are better informed when we apply different projection methods as it gives them the opportunity to consider the level of risk they are willing to bear in the future. We observed that defining climate change projections on the city scale based on clear communication and an interactive process between scientists and stakeholders can be used to inform citywide adaptation strategies and sector-specific uses, as well as promote urban climate risk governance.

urban governance and management↗

Terrestrial sedimentation impact on coral and macroalgal cover in Puerto Rico's southwest coral reefs.

The coral reefs in southwest Puerto Rico (PR) have faced coral cover reduction in the last decades due to changes in its environment that can be related to sedimentation entrance resulting from anthropogenic activities in the watershed (i.e., agriculture and urban development). The Guánica Bay and La Parguera reef platforms are two natural reserves important for recreational and fishing activities. Nonetheless, their respective coral cover has decreased dramatically. Data from a previous NASA-funded project (HICE-PR) conducted between 2014-2018 was analyzed to better understand how the terrigenous sedimentation can affect the coral reef benthic composition in Guánica Bay and La Parguera. A one-way Nested ANOVA and a Tukey's HSD analyses were applied to find differences in benthic cover composition within and among the sites and location. The preliminary results showed differences in coral cover and macroalgae cover between the platforms reefs sites. The coral cover in La Parguera was higher and averaged 11.5% compared to that of Guánica (8.6%), while the macroalgae cover followed a similar pattern. Both coral cover and macroalgae in La Parguera and Guánica varied between from 2016 to 2018 with a general trend of increased coral cover in La Parguera and increase in macroalgae in Guánica. These trends can be related to the distance to the coastline as those reefs located closer to the coastline showed a greater percentage in macroalgal cover than those located farther. Cover of macroalgae and corals at reefs located a mid-distance to the coastline varied with no definite pattern detected. These results will be further correlated with variations in water quality obtained from remotely-sensed data (patterns of chlorophyll a, total suspended sediments, vertical attenuation coefficient) to support the prediction and tracking of coral cover changes in PR's southwest region.

macroalgal↗

Bioinspired Honeycomb Core Design: An Experimental Study of the Role of Corner Radius, Coping, and Interface

The honeybee’s nest has inspired the design of engineering honeycomb core that primarily abstract the hexagonal cell shape and exploit its mass minimizing properties to construct lightweight panels. This work explored three additional design features that are part of the natural honeybee comb but have not been traditionally considered as design features of interest in honeycomb design: the radius at the corner of each cell, the coping at the top of the cell walls, and the interface between cell arrays. These features were first characterized in natural honeycomb using optical and X-ray techniques, and then incorporated into honeycomb core design, and fabricated using an additive manufacturing process. The honeycomb cores were then tested in out-of-plane compression and bending, and since all three design features added mass to the overall structure, all metrics were examined per unit mass to assess performance gains. The study concluded that the addition of an interface increases specific flexural modulus but has little benefit in out-of-plane compression; coping radius positively impacts specific flexural strength; but that the corner radius has no significant effect in bending, and actually is slightly detrimental for out-of-plane compression testing.

honeycomb↗

Behavioral consequences of low dose radiation and sex differences in MCAT mouse model

Our study used 1-year old C57BL/6NJ male and female mice (astronaut-relevant age) that underwent exposure to 0.5 gray of gamma radiation and were euthanized 12 weeks after. In this study, we used an MCAT mouse model for mitochondrial ROS quenching, which overexpress human catalase. MCAT mice were shown to live longer and age better. Hence, in this study we determined whether quenching ROS in the mitochondria will mitigate the adverse effects of ionizing radiation exposure on spaceflight-relevant tissues. As part of the analysis, we have completed 5 different behavioral tests which focus on memory, physical stance, stress, anxiety, and other mission relevant behaviors. In the Neuro-score battery, performed after both 1and 8 weeks post IR we saw that all female groups had significantly higher scores compared to males. When comparing the baseline vs 8 weeks of radiation, we saw that all the male groups (including the sham) had lower neuro-score, pointing out to aging effect in addition to IR. In the female groups only the female IR group had lower neuro-score and the MCAT group was protected from this effect. In the Nestlet building test we saw similarly that only females were affected by radiation, having lower scores and this effect was mitigated in the MCAT animals as well. In the Catwalk test we saw that females were faster, had higher swing speed and stride length in all four paws. Males had higher stand, step cycle and max contact area. Aging is associated with slowing of gait speed, swing speed and shortening of stride length which we see in males, this is consistent with physical appearance where males look markedly older. In the Light-Dark Box test we saw that females were more frequently present in the light side and altered zones more frequently, pointing out to a more exploratory and less anxious pattern of behavior. Similarly, to what was detected in the Nest building and Neuro-score test, in the Barnes maze test, during the acquisition phase (learning) we saw that IR affected more the females who did not do better in the maze after 4 days. On the other hand, during the probe phase of the test (spatial memory) the females visited the target hole and the box quadrant more often, but also had more errors vs males, which points out to possible serial escape vs spatial escape strategy. Overall, we see that older females look physically better are faster and perform better almost in all behavioral tests compared to their male counterparts. On the other hand, they are more sensitive to low dose radiation in many cases, in some cases this effect was mitigated in the MCAT model pointing out to the importance of ROS in these stressors. In the near future we will focus on corelating these behavioral tests with molecular findings such as for example brain IHC, plasma and hippocampal cytokines in order to find specific biomarkers for behavioral deficits.

radiation↗

Demonstration of a Modular, Scalable, Laser Communication Terminal for Manned Spaceflight Missions

Free-space laser communication systems are increasingly implemented on state of the art satellites for their high-speed connectivity. This work outlines the design, analysis and test of the Modular, Agile, Scalable Optical Terminal (MAScOT) we have developed to support Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) to deep-space communication links. In LEO, the MAScOT will be implemented on the International Space Station to support the Integrated Laser Communications Relay Demonstration (LCRD) LEO User Modem and Amplifier Terminal (ILLUMA-T) program. ILLUMA-T’s overarching objective is to demonstrate high bandwidth data transfer between LEO and a ground station via a geosynchronous (GEO) relay satellite. Outside of GEO, MAScOT will also be implemented on the Artemis-II mission to demonstrate high data rate optical communications to and from the moon as part of the Orion EM-2 Optical Communications (O2O) program. Both missions leverage the same modular architecture despite varying structural, thermal, and optical requirements. To achieve sufficient performance, the optical terminal relies on a coarse/fine nested tracking loop to realize sub-arcsecond pointing across +/- 120 deg elevation and +/- 175 deg azimuth field of regard. An integrated analysis of the MAScOT in support of both missions will be outlined in addition to scalable versions of this terminal for future missions.

Steven R. Gillmer↗

Review of a Draft - Avoiding the Impossible: Re-focusing a Non-Feasible Mission 2-Hrs into a 3-Day Engineering Session

Concurrent engineering offers a great many benefits to engineers and mission designers throughout the world of aerospace. The only downside of concurrent engineering, and this is somewhat unavoidable, is that you don’t know the results of a design session until the end when it is completed. Usually, this is not a problem – you wouldn’t start building a spacecraft before the design is finished. However, within mass and cost constrained systems, you may end up with a final design that although technically sound – is not feasible due to mass or cost limits. Employing in-session mass and cost models with flexible inputs that refine their estimates and variance as more detailed information comes in throughout a design session allows major design changes to be made when the probability of breaching a mass or cost cap exceeds a threshold level. This enables mission designers to re-focus the study, and avoid spending 3-days with 15 engineers designing a non-feasible mission. By understanding key correlations and nested relationships within mass or cost, and specifically mass or cost allocations per mission element by mission type, it’s possible to get flexible-input, statistically based mass and cost estimates very early in the design process. Baseline models are seeded using mission characteristics and general parameters (outer planetary orbiter-probe mission, $500M cost cap for example) to provide a rough estimate of the expected mass or cost. As information gets solidified during the session, it gets added to the model and the estimates are updated. Continuing the orbiter-probe mission example, modeling probe heat shield cost as a percent of total probe cost, and probe cost as a percent of total flight system cost, and total flight system cost as a percent of total mission cost allows a design team to roll-up solidified information to estimate the probability of fitting within a mass or cost constraint early in a concurrent design session. When only the heat shield cost is known, the variance of the final estimate is higher, whereas when the full probe gets defined, naturally, the variance of the estimate decreases. A methodology, model, verification and demo implementation for cost limit breach are presented.

Hihn, Jairus M.↗

An Ensemble of Bayesian Neural Networks for Exoplanetary Atmospheric Retrieval

Machine learning (ML) is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using ML algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest (RF) to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new ML model, plan-net, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that yields more accurate inferences than the RF for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use BNNs for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for BNNs that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing ML models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply plan-net to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.

Adam D. Cobb↗

Demonstration of a Modular, Scalable, Laser Communication Terminal for Manned Spaceflight Missions

Free-space laser communication systems are increasingly implemented on state of the art satellites for their high-speed connectivity. This work outlines a demonstration of the Modular, Agile, Scalable Optical Terminal(MAScOT) we have developed to support Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) to deep-space communication links. In LEO, the MAScOT will be implemented on the International Space Station to support the Integrated Laser Communications Relay Demonstration (LCRD) LEO User Modem and Amplifier Terminal (ILLUMA-T) program. ILLUMA-Ts overarching objective is to demonstrate high bandwidth data transfer between LEO and a ground station via a geosynchronous (GEO) relay satellite. Outside of GEO, MAScOT will also be implemented on the Artemis-II mission to demonstrate high data rate optical communications to and from the moon as part of theOrion EM-2 Optical Communications (O2O) program. Both missions leverage the same modular architecture despite varying structural, thermal, and optical requirements. To achieve sufficient performance, the optical terminal relies on a nested tracking loop to realize sub-arcsecond pointing across±120◦elevation and±175◦azimuth field of regard.

optical communications↗

AstroAmpSeq: Microbial Bioinformatics Education with NASA GeneLab’s Amplicon Pipeline

The prevalence and importance of large sequencing datasets in microbiology has led to a movement to share microbial ecology experimental data through open-access databases. This is particularly true of experiments that are difficult to replicate, such as those conducted in the spaceflight environment and shared via NASA GeneLab. It is now possible and indeed valuable for students to access and re-analyze these shared datasets for educational and research purposes. To provide students with experience utilizing microbial bioinformatics tools, GeneLab for Colleges and Universities (GL4U) has designed AstroAmpSeq, a week-long, virtually implemented project-based learning (PBL) minicourse to instruct undergraduate students on 16S amplicon sequencing. AstroAmpSeq was created to be accessible to students without prior bioinformatics or microbial ecology experience. During the minicourse students work in teams to process, analyze, and visualize a subsample of GeneLab dataset GLDS-280 using GeneLab’s standard amplicon processing pipeline, which is based in R. Students develop a hypothesis related to the dataset then generate and analyze figures to evaluate their hypothesis. Formative assessment of student learning is determined via pre- and post-evaluations, peer feedback, and self-reflection. Project and presentation rubrics serve as a summative assessment of student learning. GL4U AstroAmpSeq not only meets American Society for Microbiology Curriculum Guidelines, but also incites student interest in research by an inquiry-based approach and can be made part of a larger semester-long curriculum. GL4U AstroAmpSeq raises awareness of space microbiology and bioinformatics as a field and career path among undergraduates. Further, by using a GeneLab dataset and nesting microbiology techniques into the real-world application of space biology, AstroAmpSeq enforces deeper and longer-lasting student learning.

microbiology↗

Forest Cover Correlation with Population Trends of the Eastern Towhee in the Mid-Eastern U.S.

The Eastern Towhee (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) is a large, ground-nesting sparrow-like bird in the Eastern United States that has shown dramatic population declines over the last 50 years. This species lives year-round in the southeastern U.S., but individuals from the northeastern U.S. migrate south in the winter and overlap with southeastern residents. The Eastern Towhee is one of the fastest-declining bird species in the eastern U.S. In this study, we compare Eastern Towhee population trends during the breeding season with winter population trends over the last three decades. Paradoxically, this species is significantly increasing in Maryland, West Virginia, New Jersey, Virginia, and Delaware during the winter, but decreasing during the summer. Using the national Breeding Bird Survey dataset, we show that the Eastern Towhee populations have been declining roughly at a rate of -11.58% in Maryland, -9.51% in West Virginia, -37.95% in New Jersey, -11.22% in Virginia, and -16.96% in Delaware per year from 1984-2015. But the populations have been increasing during winter roughly at a rate of 0.62% in Maryland, 0.05% in West Virginia, 0.33% in New Jersey, 0.08% in Virginia, and 0.51% in Delaware per year from 1984-2019, using the Christmas Bird Count. We explore a variety of hypotheses to explain this paradox, including a northward range shift in association with climate change, as well as changes in habitat availability. Our study documents how the natural world is changing in complex ways due to many stressors and will help understand how to conserve the Eastern Towhee.

Meklit Mesfin↗

Design for Minimum Casualty Area – The IXPE Case

The Imaging X-Ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) is a new international space observatory in NASA’s Small Explorer program, designed in a collaboration between the Italian Space Agency and NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, and built by Ball Aerospace. IXPE has an expected launch in November 2021, to a 600-km altitude equatorial orbit. IXPE is an astrophysics mission using three telescope assemblies to measure the polarization of cosmic X-rays. Each assembly is composed of a mirror module assembly (MMA) with 24 nested nickel-cobalt cylindrical shells and a unique, polarization-sensitive, gas pixel detector (GPD) within the detector unit (DU). As a NASA mission, IXPE must adhere to the orbital debris mitigation requirements specified in NASA Standard 8719.14 [1]; in the present work, we will only discuss reentry human casualty risk. As initially designed, the IXPE observatory exceeded NASA’s casualty risk threshold. IXPE does not include a propulsion system to perform a controlled reentry at the end of mission to mitigate the ground casualty risk. To reduce the risk from the uncontrolled reentry of this observatory, the IXPE design team worked with the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office to reduce the debris casualty area through design-for-demise and containment methods. The flight design of IXPE is now compliant with the ground casualty risk requirement at a casualty probability of 1:13,100 compared to a casualty requirement of better than 1:10,000.

C Ostrom↗

Gravity Wave Observations by the Mars Science Laboratory REMS Pressure Sensor and Comparison with Mesoscale Atmospheric Modeling with MarsWRF

Surface pressure measurements on Mars have revealed a wide variety of atmospheric phenomena. The Mars Science Laboratory Rover Environmental Monitoring Station pressure sensor dataset is now the longest duration record of surface pressure on Mars. We use the first 2580 martian sols, nearly 4 Mars years,of measurements to identify atmospheric pressure waves with periods of tens of minutes to hours using wavelet analysis on residual pressure after the tidal harmonics are removed. We find these waves have a clear diurnal cycle with strongest activity in the early morning and late evening and a seasonal cycle with the strongest waves in the second half of the martian year (Ls= 180-360°). The strongest such waves of the entire mission occurred during the Mars Year 34 global dust storm. Comparable atmospheric waves are identified using atmospheric modeling with the MarsWRF general circulation model in a “nested” high spatial resolution mode. With the support of the modeling, we find these waves best fit the expected properties of inertia-gravity waves with horizontal wavelengths of O(100s) of km. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Measuring air pressure from the surface of Mars has revealed a wide variety of atmospheric phenomena. The Curiosity rover's record or surface air pressure is now the longest yet made on Mars.We use the first ~8 years of Curiosity's pressure observations to look for atmospheric waves with periods of tens of minutes to hours. We find these waves have a clear pattern in their daily behavior with the strongest activity in the early morning and late evening and a seasonal cycle with the strongest waves in the second half of the martian year (Northern hemisphere fall and winter). The strongest such waves occurred in 2018 during a global dust storm. We find comparable waves in atmospheric modeling. With the support of modeling, we find these waves best fit the expected properties of buoyancy waves forced by airflow over topography with horizontal wavelengths of 100-1000 km.

Scott D Guzewich↗

Overview of the MOSAiC Expedition - Snow and Sea Ice

Year-round observations of the physical snow and ice properties and processes that govern the ice pack evolution and its interaction with the atmosphere and the ocean were conducted during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition of the research vessel Polarstern in the Arctic Ocean from October 2019 to September 2020. This work was embedded into the interdisciplinary design of the five MOSAiC teams, studying the atmosphere, the sea ice, the ocean, the ecosystem and biogeochemical processes. The overall aim of the snow and sea ice observations during MOSAiC was to characterize the physical properties of the snow and ice cover comprehensively in the central Arctic over an entire annual cycle. This objective was achieved by detailed observations of physical properties, and of energy and mass balance of snow and ice. By studying snow and sea ice dynamics over nested spatial scales from centimeters to tens of kilometers, the variability across scales can be considered. On-ice observations of in-situ and remote sensing properties of the different surface types over all seasons will help to improve numerical process and climate models, and to establish and validate novel satellite remote sensing methods; the linkages to accompanying airborne measurements, satellite observations, and results of numerical models are discussed. We found large spatial variabilities of snow metamorphism and thermal regimes impacting sea ice growth. We conclude that the highly variable snow cover needs to be considered in more detail (in observations, remote sensing and models) to better understand snow-related feedback processes. The ice pack revealed rapid transformations and motions along the drift in all seasons. The number of coupled ice-ocean interface processes observed in detail are expected to guide upcoming research with respect to the changing Arctic sea ice.

snow and sea ice↗

Global geologic map of asteroid (101955) Bennu indicates heterogeneous resurfacing in the past 500,000 years

Global geologic maps are useful tools for efficient interpretation of a planetary body, and they provide global context for the diversity and evolution of the surface. We used data acquired by the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft to create the first global geologic map of the near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu. As this is the first geologic map of a small, non-spherical, rubble-pile asteroid, we discuss the distinctive mapping challenges and best practices that may be useful for future exploration of similar asteroids, such as those to be visited with the Hera and Janus missions. By mapping on two centimeter-scale global image mosaics (2D projected space) and a centimeter-scale global shape model (3D space), we generated three input maps respectively describing Bennu’s shape features, geologic features, and surface texture. Based on these input maps, we defined two geologic units: the Smooth Unit and the Rugged Unit. The units are differentiated primarily on the basis of surface texture, concentrations of boulders, and the distributions of lineaments, mass movement features, and craters. They are bounded by several scarps. The Rugged Unit contains abundant boulders and signs of recent mass movement. It also has fewer small(<20 m), putatively fresh craters than the Smooth Unit, suggesting that such craters have been erased in the former. Based on these geologic indicators, we infer that the Rugged Unit has the younger surface of the two. Differential crater size-frequency distributions and the distribution of the freshest craters suggest that both unit surfaces formed ~10–65 million years ago, when Bennu was located in the Main Asteroid Belt, and the Smooth Unit has not been significantly resurfaced in the past 2 million years. Meanwhile, the Rugged Unit has experienced resurfacing within the past ~500,000years during Bennu’s lifetime as a near-Earth asteroid. The geologic units are consistent with global diversity in slope, surface roughness, normal albedo, and thermal emission spectral characteristics. The site on Bennu where the OSIRIS-REx mission collected a regolith sample is located in the Smooth Unit, in a small crater nested within a larger one. So although the Smooth Unit is an older surface than the Rugged Unit, the impact-crater settingindicates that the material sampled was recently exposed. Several similarities are apparent between Bennu and asteroid (162173) Ryugu from a global geologic perspective, including two geologic units distinguishable by variations in the number density of boulders, as well as in other datasets such as brightness.

E R Jawin↗

Padre Island Water Resources: Monitoring Historic Shoreline Change and Suspended Sediment Patterns along Padre Island National Seashore

Land loss along Padre Island National Seashore threatens the safety of the recreational beach for the general public and endangers wildlife habitats and nesting sites. Historically, the Army Corps of Engineers has conducted dredging efforts to thwart erosion. Quantifying spatial and temporal variations of shoreline change is vital to understanding the interaction of land loss and historical dredging efforts. NASA DEVELOP collaborated with the National Park Service to use remote sensing to investigate the impact of dredging on Padre Island National Seashore’s shoreline. The team utilized high-resolution imagery from Maxar and Planet to create a time series of shoreline changes between 2011 and 2020, conduct shoreline extraction, and quantify shoreline changes. Additionally, the team monitored turbidity and sediment dynamics using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 4 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 5 TM, and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI). Shoreline change results demonstrated an average change between 4.5 to 32 meters annually. Meanwhile, the dredging area directly north of the seashore’s Port Mansfield Channel experienced an areal gain of 152,000 m² between 2010 and 2021. The team also observed that turbidity values increased in areas close to the channel where dredging occurred, especially in the 2018 and 2021 dredging years. Dredging years corresponded with less shoreline change than years without dredging. These results will be used to better inform future partner-designed shoreline management projects in the face of continued erosion and sea level rise.

Lisa Tanh↗

Planetary and Lunar Environment Thermal Toolbox Elements (PALETTE) Project Year One Results

This paper summarizes the technology development progress made during year one of the three-year JPL PALETTE project, which is funded by the NASA STMD Game Changing Development (GCD) Program. The project goal is to ensure that a full “palette” of flight-ready (high TRL) thermal “toolbox” elements is available so that engineers can create passive, ultra-isolative thermal designs for science instruments on a variety of carriers in lunar/planetary extreme environments. PALETTE is structured to meet the need via four design/build/test tasks and four analysis/study tasks. This paper focuses on Tasks 1-4, the four design/build/test tasks. Task 1 involves the development of nested thermally-switched enclosures featuring a reverse-operation DTE thermal switch (ROD-TSW) in series with a propylene miniaturized loop heat pipe (mini-LHP). Task 2 involves the development of a parabolic reflector radiator (PRR) for low latitude lunar sites. Task 3 involves the development of a low effective emissivity (e*) multilayer insulation (MLI) known as “spacerless” MLI. Finally, Task 4 involves the development of low conductance (G) thermal isolators. Available test results for all four tasks will be summarized in the paper, as will the plans for the remainder of the PALETTE project.

Britton, Shawn R↗

Extended Stroke and Miniaturized Reverse-Operation DTE Thermal Switches

This paper describes two advanced thermal switches under development that are offshoots of the recently flight-qualified 2500:1 reverse-operation differential thermal expansion (DTE) thermal switch (ROD-TSW). The first is the extended stroke ROD-TSW (ES-ROD-TSW) while the second is the miniaturized ROD-TSW (mini-ROD-TSW). Each employs multiple diametrically nested DTE stages in contrast to the single-stage ROD-TSW. The ES-ROD-TSW employs two stages and a negative CTE material known as Allvar and its main purpose is to extend its stroke for use in non-vacuum planetary environments. The mini-ROD-TSW employs four stages to miniaturize its size for use in compact lunar instruments and rovers. The ES-ROD-TSW was TVAC tested at JPL and its ON/OFF ratio is 13000:1 based on a measured ON conductance of 6.89 W/K and a calculated OFF conductance of 0.00053 W/K. The mini-ROD-TSW is targeted to have an ON conductance of 1.5 W/K and an OFF conductance of 0.0015 W/K, both verified by analysis. Test verification of the mini-ROD-TSW remains to be carried out. The paper will provide design/performance details of each device.

Farmer, Jeffery T.↗

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Part III: Simulated Observables - The Return of the Spectrum

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) is a community project that aims to quantify how differences in general circulation models (GCMs) could impact the climate prediction for TRAPPIST-le and, subsequently its atmospheric characterization in transit. Four GCMs have participated in THAI so far: ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D and the UM. This paper, focused on the simulated observations, is the third part of a trilogy, following the analysis of two land planet scenarios (part I) and two aquaplanet scenarios (part II). Here, we show a robust agreement between the simulated spectra and the number of transits estimated to detect the land planet atmospheres. For the cloudy aquaplanet ones, a 5-σ detection of CO2 could be achieved in about 10 transits if the atmosphere contains at least 1 bar of CO2. That number can vary by 41- 56% depending on the GCM used to predict the terminator profiles, principally due to differences in the cloud deck altitude, with ExoCAM and LMD-G producing higher clouds than ROCKE-3D and UM. Therefore, for the first time, this work provides "GCM uncertainty error bars" of ~ 50% that need to be considered in future analyses of transmission spectra. We also analyzed the inter-transit variability induced by weather patterns and changes of terminator cloudiness between transits. Its magnitude differs significantly between the GCMs but its impact on the transmission spectra is within the measurement uncertainties. THAI has demonstrated the importance of model intercomparison for exoplanets and also paved the way for a larger project to develop an intercomparison meta-framework, namely the Climates Using Interactive Suites of Intercomparisons Nested for Exoplanet Studies (CUISINES).

Exoplanet atmospheres↗