Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Monte Carlo Modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Improving the chi-squared approximation for bivariate normal tolerance regions

Let X be a two-dimensional random variable distributed according to N2(mu,Sigma) and let bar-X and S be the respective sample mean and covariance matrix calculated from N observations of X. Given a containment probability beta and a level of confidence gamma, we seek a number c, depending only on N, beta, and gamma such that the ellipsoid R = (x: (x - bar-X)'S(exp -1) (x - bar-X) less than or = c) is a tolerance region of content beta and level gamma; i.e., R has probability gamma of containing at least 100 beta percent of the distribution of X. Various approximations for c exist in the literature, but one of the simplest to compute -- a multiple of the ratio of certain chi-squared percentage points -- is badly biased for small N. For the bivariate normal case, most of the bias can be removed by simple adjustment using a factor A which depends on beta and gamma. This paper provides values of A for various beta and gamma so that the simple approximation for c can be made viable for any reasonable sample size. The methodology provides an illustrative example of how a combination of Monte-Carlo simulation and simple regression modelling can be used to improve an existing approximation.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic micromechanics for metal matrix composites

A probabilistic micromechanics-based nonlinear analysis procedure is developed to predict and quantify the variability in the properties of high temperature metal matrix composites. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the probabilistic distributions of the constituent level properties including fiber, matrix, and interphase properties, volume and void ratios, strengths, fiber misalignment, and nonlinear empirical parameters. The procedure predicts the resultant ply properties and quantifies their statistical scatter. Graphite copper and Silicon Carbide Titanlum Aluminide (SCS-6 TI15) unidirectional plies are considered to demonstrate the predictive capabilities. The procedure is believed to have a high potential for use in material characterization and selection to precede and assist in experimental studies of new high temperature metal matrix composites.

Engelstad, S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Imaging the sun in hard X-rays - Spatial and rotating modulation collimators

Several approaches to imaging hard X-rays emitted from solar flares have been proposed or are planned for the nineties including the spatial modulation collimator (SMC) and the rotating modulation collimator (RMC). A survey of current solar flare theoretical literature indicates the desirability of spatial resolutions down to 1 arcsecond, field of views greater than the full solar disk (i.e., 32 arcminutes), and temporal resolutions down to 1 second. Although the sun typically provides relatively high flux levels, the requirement for 1 second temporal resolution raises the question as to the viability of Fourier telescopes subject to the aforementioned constraints. A basic photon counting, Monte Carlo 'end-to-end' model telescope was employed using the Astronomical Image Processing System (AIPS) for image reconstruction. The resulting solar flare hard X-ray images compared against typical observations indicated that both telescopes show promise for the future.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Powder agglomeration in a microgravity environment

This is the final report for NASA Grant NAG3-755 entitled 'Powder Agglomeration in a Microgravity Environment.' The research program included both two types of numerical models and two types of experiments. The numerical modeling included the use of Monte Carlo type simulations of agglomerate growth including hydrodynamic screening and molecular dynamics type simulations of the rearrangement of particles within an agglomerate under a gravitational field. Experiments included direct observation of the agglomeration of submicron alumina and indirect observation, using small angle light scattering, of the agglomeration of colloidal silica and aluminum monohydroxide. In the former class of experiments, the powders were constrained to move on a two-dimensional surface oriented to minimize the effect of gravity. In the latter, some experiments involved mixture of suspensions containing particles of opposite charge which resulted in agglomeration on a very short time scale relative to settling under gravity.

Cawley, James D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The global resurfacing of Venus

The impact cratering record on Venus is unique among the terrestrial planets. Fully 84% of the craters are in pristine condition, and only 12% are fractured. Remarkably, only 2.5% of the craters and crater-related features are embayed by lava, although intense volcanism and tectonism have affected the entire planet. Furthermore, the spatial and hypsometric distribution of the craters is consistent with a completely random one, including stochastic variations. Monte Carlo simulations of equilibrium resurfacing models result in a minimum of 17 times more embayed craters than observed, or unobserved nonrandom crater distributions for resurfacing areas between 0.03% and 100% of the planet's surface. These models also are not consistent with the number and nonrandom distribution of volcanoes, and the nonrandom distribution of embayed and heavily fractured craters. The constraints imposed by the cratering record strongly indicate that Venus experienced a global resurfacing event about 300 m.y. ago followed by a dramatic reduction of volcanism and tectonism. This global resurfacing event ended abruptly (less than 10 m.y.). The present crater population has accumulated since then and remains largely intact. Thermal history models suggest that similar global resurfacing events probably occured episodically in the past. We show that neither the present level and style of geologic activity nor anything less than global resurfacing could have produced the observed cratering record. The effects of recent geologic activity are much less than those of the earlier global resurfacing event, when the record of all the early heavy bombardment and much of the later light bombardment was erased from the surface by massive volcanism and tectonic activity. Episodic regional resurfacing events that had global effects also occurred on Earth (e.g., the mid-Cretaceous superplume) and probably on Mars. On Mars they may have triggered the catastrophic releases of water that formed the outflow channels.

Strom, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS1994

System Design under Uncertainty: Evolutionary Optimization of the Gravity Probe-B Spacecraft

This paper discusses the application of evolutionary random-search algorithms (Simulated Annealing and Genetic Algorithms) to the problem of spacecraft design under performance uncertainty. Traditionally, spacecraft performance uncertainty has been measured by reliability. Published algorithms for reliability optimization are seldom used in practice because they oversimplify reality. The algorithm developed here uses random-search optimization to allow us to model the problem more realistically. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the objective function for each trial design solution. These methods have been applied to the Gravity Probe-B (GP-B) spacecraft being developed at Stanford University for launch in 1999, Results of the algorithm developed here for GP-13 are shown, and their implications for design optimization by evolutionary algorithms are discussed.

Pullen, Samuel P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

MeV Gamma Ray Detection Algorithms for Stacked Silicon Detectors

By making use of the signature of a gamma ray event as it appears in N = 5 to 20 lithium-drifted silicon detectors and applying smart selection algorithms, gamma rays in the energy range of 1 to 8 MeV can be detected with good efficiency and selectivity. Examples of the types of algorithms used for different energy regions include the simple sum mode, the sum-coincidence mode used in segmented detectors, unique variations on sum-coincidence for an N-dimensional vector event, and a new and extremely useful mode for double escape peak spectroscopy at pair-production energies. The latter algorithm yields a spectrum similar to that of the pair spectrometer, but without the need of the dual external segments for double escape coincidence, and without the large loss in efficiency of double escape events. Background events due to Compton scattering are largely suppressed. Monte Carlo calculations were used to model the gamma ray interactions in the silicon, in order to enable testing of a wide array of different algorithms on the event N-vectors for a large-N stack.

McMurray, Robert E. Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Simulations of Ground and Space-Based Oxygen Atom Experiments

A low-earth orbit (LEO) materials erosion scenario and the ground-based experiment designed to simulate it are compared using the direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. The DSMC model provides a detailed description of the interactions between the hyperthermal gas flow and a normally oriented flat plate for each case. We find that while the general characteristics of the LEO exposure are represented in the ground-based experiment, multi-collision effects can potentially alter the impact energy and directionality of the impinging molecules in the ground-based experiment. Multi-collision phenomena also affect downstream flux measurements.

Finchum, A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2005

DNA Damage by Ionizing Radiation: Tandem Double Lesions by Charged Particles

Oxidative damages by ionizing radiation are the source of radiation-induced carcinogenesis, damage to the central nervous system, lowering of the immune response, as well as other radiation-induced damages to human health. Monte Carlo track simulations and kinetic modeling of radiation damages to the DNA employ available molecular and cellular data to simulate the biological effect of high and low LET radiation io the DNA. While the simulations predict single and double strand breaks and base damages, so far all complex lesions are the result of stochastic coincidence from independent processes. Tandem double lesions have not yet been taken into account. Unlike the standard double lesions that are produced by two separate attacks by charged particles or radicals, tandem double lesions are produced by one single attack. The standard double lesions dominate at the high dosage regime. On the other hand, tandem double lesions do not depend on stochastic coincidences and become important at the low dosage regime of particular interest to NASA. Tandem double lesions by hydroxyl radical attack of guanine in isolated DNA have been reported at a dosage of radiation as low as 10 Gy. The formation of two tandem base lesions was found to be linear with the applied doses, a characteristic of tandem lesions. However, tandem double lesions from attack by a charged particle have not been reported.

Huo, Winifred M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

MCNPX Cosmic Ray Shielding Calculations with the NORMAN Phantom Model

The United States is planning manned lunar and interplanetary missions in the coming years. Shielding from cosmic rays is a critical aspect of manned spaceflight. These ventures will present exposure issues involving the interplanetary Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) environment. GCRs are comprised primarily of protons (approx.84.5%) and alpha-particles (approx.14.7%), while the remainder is comprised of massive, highly energetic nuclei. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) has commissioned a joint study with Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) to investigate the interaction of the GCR environment with humans using high-fidelity, state-of-the-art computer simulations. The simulations involve shielding and dose calculations in order to assess radiation effects in various organs. The simulations are being conducted using high-resolution voxel-phantom models and the MCNPX[1] Monte Carlo radiation-transport code. Recent advances in MCNPX physics packages now enable simulated transport over 2200 types of ions of widely varying energies in large, intricate geometries. We report here initial results obtained using a GCR spectrum and a NORMAN[3] phantom.

James, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Flight Dynamics Perspective of the Orion Pad Abort One Flight Test

The Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle is America s next generation of human rated spacecraft. The Orion Launch Abort System will take the astronauts away from the exploration vehicle in the event of an aborted launch. The pad abort mode of the Launch Abort System will be flight-tested in 2009 from the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. This paper examines some of the efforts currently underway at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center by the Controls & Dynamics group in preparation for the flight test. The concept of operation for the pad abort flight is presented along with an overview of the guidance, control and navigation systems. Preparations for the flight test, such as hardware testing and development of the real-time displays, are examined. The results from the validation and verification efforts for the aerodynamic and atmospheric models are shown along with Monte Carlo analysis results.

Idicula, Jinu↗
NASA NTRS2010

Risk Analysis of On-Orbit Spacecraft Refueling Concepts

On-orbit refueling of spacecraft has been proposed as an alternative to the exclusive use of Heavy-lift Launch Vehicles to enable human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). In these scenarios, beyond LEO spacecraft are launched dry (without propellant) or partially dry into orbit, using smaller or fewer element launch vehicles. Propellant is then launched into LEO on separate launch vehicles and transferred to the spacecraft. Refueling concepts are potentially attractive because they reduce the maximum individual payload that must be placed in Earth orbit. However, these types of approaches add significant complexity to mission operations and introduce more uncertainty and opportunities for failure to the mission. In order to evaluate these complex scenarios, the authors developed a Monte Carlo based discrete-event model that simulates the operational risks involved with such strategies, including launch processing delays, transportation system failures, and onorbit element lifetimes. This paper describes the methodology used to simulate the mission risks for refueling concepts, the strategies that were evaluated, and the results of the investigation. The results of the investigation show that scenarios that employ refueling concepts will likely have to include long launch and assembly timelines, as well as the use of spare tanker launch vehicles, in order to achieve high levels of mission success through Trans Lunar Injection.

Cirillo, William M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Heat Transfer Analysis in Wire Bundles for Aerospace Vehicles

Design of wiring for aerospace vehicles relies on an understanding of "ampacity" which refers to the current carrying capacity of wires, either, individually or in wire bundles. Designers rely on standards to derate allowable current flow to prevent exceedance of wire temperature limits due to resistive heat dissipation within the wires or wire bundles. These standards often add considerable margin and are based on empirical data. Commercial providers are taking an aggressive approach to wire sizing which challenges the conventional wisdom of the established standards. Thermal modelling of wire bundles may offer significant mass reduction in a system if the technique can be generalized to produce reliable temperature predictions for arbitrary bundle configurations. Thermal analysis has been applied to the problem of wire bundles wherein any or all of the wires within the bundle may carry current. Wire bundles present analytical challenges because the heat transfer path from conductors internal to the bundle is tortuous, relying on internal radiation and thermal interface conductance to move the heat from within the bundle to the external jacket where it can be carried away by convective and radiative heat transfer. The problem is further complicated by the dependence of wire electrical resistivity on temperature. Reduced heat transfer out of the bundle leads to higher conductor temperatures and, hence, increased resistive heat dissipation. Development of a generalized wire bundle thermal model is presented and compared with test data. The steady state heat balance for a single wire is derived and extended to the bundle configuration. The generalized model includes the effects of temperature varying resistance, internal radiation and thermal interface conductance, external radiation and temperature varying convective relief from the free surface. The sensitivity of the response to uncertainties in key model parameters is explored using Monte Carlo analysis.

S L Rickman↗
NASA NTRS2015

Trajectory Dispersion Control for the Cassini Grand Finale Mission

The Cassini Grand Finale Mission, which consists of 22 ballistic orbits, will begin on April 22, 2017 after the last targeted Titan flyby. It will end on September 15, 2017 when the spacecraft dives into Saturn's atmosphere and be permanently captured. High volumes of unique science data from various onboard instruments are expected from the mission. To ensure its success and facilitate science planning, the trajectory dispersion needs to be controlled below 250 km (root-mean-square spatial deviation at the 68th percentile level) for a few segments of trajectory in the mission. This paper reports the formulation and solution of this dispersion control problem. We consider various sources of uncertainties including flyby error, orbit determination error, maneuver execution error, thruster firing control error, and uncertainty in Saturn's atmospheric model. A non-linear Monte Carlo Trajectory Dispersion tool is developed and employed for the analysis. It is found that a total of three Orbit Trim Maneuvers with a 99% (Delta)V usage of less than 2 m/s will adequately control the trajectory.

orbit determination↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-17560-DND

There has been much work in the past few years updating direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) algorithms and phenomenological models. Algorithmic advances[1] have allowed simulations to be run more efficiently reducing the time to solution as well as allowing simulations to be run at lower altitudes because of the increased efficiency. Improved phenomenological models have focused on chemistry[2, 3] and internal energy modes[4, 5] and have had a profound effect on DSMC simulations by way of expanded physical realism[6] and computational speed. The DAC software[7, 8] has been widely adopted and performs well the jobs it was designed to do, but upgrading DAC to take advantage of these modeling advances has proven difficult due to a lack of modularity in the code base. Agency investment in DSMC code development has been almost non-existent for the past two decades. DAC was developed in the 1990?s at LaRC and has seen little improvement since. However, NASA is currently (under the Hypersonics Entry, Descent and Landing program) investing in the possibility of a stand-alone code to incorporate recent developments to expand physical realism, time to solution, and expand the range of usefulness of DSMC (both in velocity space and altitude).

Derek S Liechty↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimation of General Area Dose Rates During Closure Weld Operations on the DOE Standard Canister Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference 2024

The Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Road Ready Demonstration Project is an effort to package DOE-managed SNF for road-ready dry storage. A key operation in this demonstration is performing the closure weld on the DOE Standard Canister after it has been loaded with the SNF. Planning the closure weld operations is ongoing and must consider what parts of the operations (if any) can be done manually and what parts must be done remotely. A key parameter to inform the evolving planning of these operations is the dose rate in the vicinity of the canister and the dose hazard posed to the closure weld operators and collocated workers. This study developed a Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) model of the closure weld operation, which was used to estimate general area dose rates as well as dose rates to the welding location, weld operators, and collocated workers. These estimates provide some insight into the potential radiation exposure hazard for workers during the operations and are a factor to be considered in the ongoing development of designs, technology, processes, and administrative controls for packaging DOE-managed SNF for road-ready dry storage.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2001

Radiation breakage of DNA: a model based on random-walk chromatin structure

Monte Carlo computer software, called DNAbreak, has recently been developed to analyze observed non-random clustering of DNA double strand breaks in chromatin after exposure to densely ionizing radiation. The software models coarse-grained configurations of chromatin and radiation tracks, small-scale details being suppressed in order to obtain statistical results for larger scales, up to the size of a whole chromosome. We here give an analytic counterpart of the numerical model, useful for benchmarks, for elucidating the numerical results, for analyzing the assumptions of a more general but less mechanistic "randomly-located-clusters" formalism, and, potentially, for speeding up the calculations. The equations characterize multi-track DNA fragment-size distributions in terms of one-track action; an important step in extrapolating high-dose laboratory results to the much lower doses of main interest in environmental or occupational risk estimation. The approach can utilize the experimental information on DNA fragment-size distributions to draw inferences about large-scale chromatin geometry during cell-cycle interphase.

Chromatin/radiation effects↗