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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

The charge reduction rate for multiply charged polymer ions via ion–ion recombination at atmospheric pressure

The charge reduction of multiply charged macromolecular ions via recombination with small ions in the gas phase is commonly employed to modulate the charge on macromolecules prior to mass spectrometric and mobility analyses. We employ a recently developed continuum-Molecular Dynamics (MD) calculation approach to determine the recombination rate coefficient of multiply charged (1 to 7 excess positive charged) polyethylene glycol ions (mass of 4600 Da) with smaller singly charged anions, modeled as NO 2 – ions. The continuum-MD approach accounts explicitly for the influence of the background gas on the recombination process, accounts explicitly for ion translational, vibrational, and rotational motion, and enables recombination rate coefficient calculation in nitrogen near atmospheric pressure, wherein neither low pressure nor high pressure recombination theories are strictly applicable. Continuum-MD simulations yield recombination rate coefficients near 3.9 × 10 –14 m 3 s –1 for singly charged ions, increasing to 3.0 × 10 –11 m 3 s –1 for the +7 ion. Pre-existing collision rate coefficient expressions for rigid ions are found to be within a factor of 2–5 of calculations for all charge states, but their use requires knowledge of an appropriate collision distance, which is not well-defined for flexible polymer ions. Continuum-MD-inferred rate coefficients are incorporated into a model of charge reduction, and the charge state distribution versus anion concentration determined with it is compared to charge reduction measurements made via atmospheric pressure differential mobility analysis. Furthermore, good agreement is observed between simulations and experiments; although results are extremely sensitive to the recombination rate coefficients, experimental results are bound by models utilizing rates within a factor of 2 (0.5–2.0×) of the continuum-MD rates.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Experimental protocol for CMIP6

The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 – “How does the Earth system respond to forcing?” – suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in coordinated experiments even as understanding of how best to infer radiative forcing has evolved. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) endorsed by CMIP6 seeks to provide a foundation for answering the question through three related activities: (i) accurate characterization of the effective radiative forcing relative to a near-preindustrial baseline and careful diagnosis of the components of this forcing; (ii) assessment of the absolute accuracy of clear-sky radiative transfer parameterizations against reference models on the global scales relevant for climate modeling; and (iii) identification of robust model responses to tightly specified aerosol radiative forcing from 1850 to present. Complete characterization of effective radiative forcing can be accomplished with 180 years (Tier 1) of atmosphere-only simulation using a sea-surface temperature and sea ice concentration climatology derived from the host model's preindustrial control simulation. Assessment of parameterization error requires trivial amounts of computation but the development of small amounts of infrastructure: new, spectrally detailed diagnostic output requested as two snapshots at present-day and preindustrial conditions, and results from the model's radiation code applied to specified atmospheric conditions. In conclusion, the search for robust responses to aerosol changes relies on the CMIP6 specification of anthropogenic aerosol properties; models using this specification can contribute to RFMIP with no additional simulation, while those using a full aerosol model are requested to perform at least one and up to four 165-year coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations at Tier 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comoving Stars in Gaia DR1: An Abundance of Very Wide Separation Comoving Pairs

The primary sample of the Gaia Data Release 1 is the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS): ≈2 million Tycho-2 sources with improved parallaxes and proper motions relative to the initial catalog. This increased astrometric precision presents an opportunity to find new binary stars and moving groups. We search for high-confidence comoving pairs of stars in TGAS by identifying pairs of stars consistent with having the same 3D velocity using a marginalized likelihood ratio test to discriminate candidate comoving pairs from the field population. Although we perform some visualizations using (bias-corrected) inverse parallax as a point estimate of distance, the likelihood ratio is computed with a probabilistic model that includes the covariances of parallax and proper motions and marginalizes the (unknown) true distances and 3D velocities of the stars. We find 13,085 comoving star pairs among 10,606 unique stars with separations as large as 10 pc (our search limit). Some of these pairs form larger groups through mutual comoving neighbors: many of these pair networks correspond to known open clusters and OB associations, but we also report the discovery of several new comoving groups. Most surprisingly, we find a large number of very wide (>1 pc) separation comoving star pairs, the number of which increases with increasing separation and cannot be explained purely by false-positive contamination. Our key result is a catalog of high-confidence comoving pairs of stars in TGAS. We discuss the utility of this catalog for making dynamical inferences about the Galaxy, testing stellar atmosphere models, and validating chemical abundance measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

From sequence to protein structure and conformational dynamics with artificial intelligence/machine learning

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded in part for de novo protein structure prediction using AlphaFold2, an artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) model trained on vast amounts of sequence and three-dimensional structure data. AlphaFold2 and related models, including RoseTTAFold and ESMFold, employ specialized neural network architectures driven by attention mechanisms to infer relationships between sequence and structure. At a fundamental level, these AI/ML models operate on the long-standing hypothesis that the structure of a protein is determined by its amino acid sequence. More recently, AlphaFold2 has been adapted for the prediction of multiple protein conformations by subsampling multiple sequence alignments. Herein, we provide an overview of the deterministic relationship between sequence and structure, which was hypothesized over half a century ago with profound implications for the biological sciences ever since. We postulate that protein conformational dynamics are also determined, at least in part, by amino acid sequence and that this relationship may be leveraged for construction of AI/ML models dedicated to predicting protein conformational ensembles. Accordingly, we describe a conceptual model architecture, which may be trained on sequence data in combination with conformationally sensitive structural information, coming primarily from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Notwithstanding certain limitations in this context, NMR offers abundant structural heterogeneity conducive to conformational ensemble prediction. As NMR and other data continue to accumulate, sequence-informed prediction of protein structural dynamics with AI/ML has the potential to emerge as a transformative capability across the biological sciences.

Artificial intelligence↗

Diagnosis of Performance Faults in LargeScale MPI Applications via Probabilistic Progress-Dependence Inference

Debugging large-scale parallel applications is challenging. Most existing techniques provide little information about failure root causes. Further, most debuggers significantly slow down program execution, and run sluggishly with massively parallel applications. This paper presents a novel technique that scalably infers the tasks in a parallel program on which a failure occurred, as well as the code in which it originated. Our technique combines scalable runtime analysis with static analysis to determine the least-progressed task(s) and to identify the code lines at which the failure arose. We present a novel algorithm that infers probabilistically progress dependence among MPI tasks using a globally constructed Markov model that represents tasks' control-flow behavior. In comparison to previous work, our algorithm infers more precisely the least-progressed task. Further, we combine this technique with static backward slicing analysis, further isolating the code responsible for the current state. A blind study demonstrates that our technique isolates the root cause of a concurrency bug in a molecular dynamics simulation, which only manifests itself at 7,996 tasks or more. We extensively evaluate fault coverage of our technique via fault injections in 10 HPC benchmarks and show that our analysis takes less than a few seconds on thousands of parallel tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

(U) The Effect of ENDF/B-VIII.1 on Jezebel

The 239 Pu Jezebel critical assembly of 1954-55 was modeled in great detail and reevaluated using ENDF/B-VII.1 cross sections, and a new simplified (homogeneous one-dimensional spherical) benchmark was derived. The new simplified model was similar to that derived by Hansen and Paxton in 1969, but its radius was modified so that its k eff was the average of the C/E’s (where C is the calculated k eff and E is the inferred experimental k eff ) of the four detailed models. When ENDF/B-VIII.0 data were released, a mismatch between the detailed and simplified models was introduced due to changes in the nickel cross sections, because the detailed models contain nickel but the simplified model does not. A revision of the simplified model realigned the detailed and simplified models. ENDF/B-VIII.1 data have now been released. The simplified and detailed Jezebel models have been run using preliminary ENDF/B-VIII.1 ACE files. In Sec. II, it is shown that the detailed and simplified models are still aligned. No revision of the simplified model is called for. These results were computed using MCNP6.3.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Lanthanides or Dust in Kilonovae: Lessons Learned from GW170817

The unprecedented optical and near-infrared lightcurves of the first electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational-wave source, GW170817, a binary neutron star merger, exhibited a strong evolution from blue to near-infrared (a so-called “kilonova” or “macronova”). The emerging near-infrared component is widely attributed to the formation of r-process elements that provide the opacity to shift the blue light into the near-infrared. An alternative scenario is that the light from the blue component gets extinguished by dust formed by the kilonova and subsequently is re-emitted at near-infrared wavelengths. We test here this hypothesis using the lightcurves of AT 2017gfo, the kilonova accompanying GW170817. We find that of the order of 10{sup −5} M{sub ⊙} of carbon is required to reproduce the optical/near-infrared lightcurves as the kilonova fades. This putative dust cools from ∼2000 K at ∼4 days after the event to ∼1500 K over the course of the following week, thus requiring dust with a high condensation temperature, such as carbon. We contrast this with the nucleosynthetic yields predicted by a range of kilonova wind models. These suggest that at most 10{sup −9} M{sub ⊙} of carbon is formed. Moreover, the decay in the inferred dust temperature is slower than that expected in kilonova models. We therefore conclude that in current models of the blue component of the kilonova, the near-infrared component in the kilonova accompanying GW170817 is unlikely to be due to dust.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Langmuir probe system in the Wendelstein 7-X test divertor

Here, the design and evaluation of the Langmuir probe system used in the first divertor operation phase of Wendelstein 7-X is described. The probes are integrated into the target plates and have individually facetted surfaces to keep the angle of incidence of the magnetic field within an appropriate range for different magnetic configurations. Multiple models for the derivation of plasma parameters from current–voltage characteristics are introduced. These are analyzed with regard to their assumptions and limitations, generalized, and adapted to our use case. A detailed comparison is made to determine the most suitable model. It is found that the choice of model has a large impact, for example, resulting in a change in the inferred temperatures of up to a factor two. This evaluation is implemented in a Bayesian modeling framework and automated to allow for joint analysis with other diagnostics and a replacement of ad hoc assumptions. We rigorously treat parameter uncertainties, revealing strong correlations between them. General and flexible model formulations permit an expansion to additional effects.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Accelerating data acquisition with FPGA-based edge machine learning: a case study with LCLS-II

New scientific experiments and instruments generate vast amounts of data that need to be transferred for storage or further processing, often overwhelming traditional systems. Edge machine learning (EdgeML) addresses this challenge by integrating machine learning (ML) algorithms with edge computing, enabling real-time data processing directly at the point of data generation. EdgeML is particularly beneficial for environments where immediate decisions are required, or where bandwidth and storage are limited. In this paper, we demonstrate a high-speed configurable ML model in a fully customizable EdgeML system using a field programmable gate array (FPGA). Our demonstration focuses on an angular array of electron spectrometers, referred to as the ‘CookieBox,’ developed for the Linac Coherent Light Source II project. The EdgeML system captures 51.2 Gbps from a 6.4 GS s −1 analog to digital converter and is designed to integrate data pre-processing and ML inside an FPGA. Our implementation achieves an inference latency of 0.2 µs for the ML model, and a total latency of 0.4 µs for the complete EdgeML system, which includes pre-processing, data transmission, digitization, and ML inference. The modular design of the system allows it to be adapted for other instrumentation applications requiring low-latency data processing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A regression-based approach to estimating retrofit savings using the Building Performance Database

Retrofitting building systems is known to provide cost-effective energy savings. This article addresses how the Building Performance Database is used to help identify potential savings. Currently, prioritizing retrofits and computing their expected energy savings and cost/benefits can be a complicated, costly, and an uncertain effort. Prioritizing retrofits for a portfolio of buildings can be even more difficult if the owner must determine different investment strategies for each of the buildings. Meanwhile, we are seeing greater availability of data on building energy use, characteristics, and equipment. These data provide opportunities for the development of algorithms that link building characteristics and retrofits empirically. In this paper we explore the potential of using such data for predicting the expected energy savings from equipment retrofits for a large number of buildings. We show that building data with statistical algorithms can provide savings estimates when detailed energy audits and physics-based simulations are not cost- or time-feasible. We develop a multivariate linear regression model with numerical predictors (e.g., operating hours, occupant density) and categorical indicator variables (e.g., climate zone, heating system type) to predict energy use intensity. The model quantifies the contribution of building characteristics and systems to energy use, and we use it to infer the expected savings when modifying particular equipment. We verify the model using residual analysis and cross-validation. We demonstrate the retrofit analysis by providing a probabilistic estimate of energy savings for several hypothetical building retrofits. We discuss the ways understanding the risk associated with retrofit investments can inform decision making. The contributions of this work are the development of a statistical model for estimating energy savings, its application to a large empirical building dataset, and a discussion of its use in informing building retrofit decisions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

μ⋆ masses: weak-lensing calibration of the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 redMaPPer clusters using stellar masses

ABSTRACT We present the weak-lensing mass calibration of the stellar-mass-based μ⋆ mass proxy for redMaPPer galaxy clusters in the Dark Energy Survey Year 1. For the first time, we are able to perform a calibration of μ⋆ at high redshifts, z > 0.33. In a blinded analysis, we use ∼6000 clusters split into 12 subsets spanning the ranges 0.1 ≤ z < 0.65 and μ⋆ up to ${\sim} 5.5 \times 10^{13} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$, and infer the average masses of these subsets through modelling of their stacked weak-lensing signal. In our model, we account for the following sources of systematic uncertainty: shear measurement and photometric redshift errors, miscentring, cluster-member contamination of the source sample, deviations from the Navarro–Frenk–White halo profile, halo triaxiality, and projection effects. We use the inferred masses to estimate the joint mass–μ⋆–z scaling relation given by $\langle M_{200c} | \mu _{\star },z \rangle = M_0 (\mu _{\star }/5.16\times 10^{12} \, \mathrm{M_{\odot }})^{F_{\mu _{\star }}} ((1+z)/1.35)^{G_z}$. We find $M_0= (1.14 \pm 0.07) \times 10^{14} \, \mathrm{M_{\odot }}$ with $F_{\mu _{\star }}= 0.76 \pm 0.06$ and Gz = −1.14 ± 0.37. We discuss the use of μ⋆ as a complementary mass proxy to the well-studied richness λ for: (i) exploring the regimes of low z, λ < 20 and high λ, z ∼ 1; and (ii) testing systematics such as projection effects for applications in cluster cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predictions of rhizosphere microbiome dynamics with a genome-informed and trait-based energy budget model

Abstract Soil microbiomes are highly diverse, and to improve their representation in biogeochemical models, microbial genome data can be leveraged to infer key functional traits. By integrating genome-inferred traits into a theory-based hierarchical framework, emergent behaviour arising from interactions of individual traits can be predicted. Here we combine theory-driven predictions of substrate uptake kinetics with a genome-informed trait-based dynamic energy budget model to predict emergent life-history traits and trade-offs in soil bacteria. When applied to a plant microbiome system, the model accurately predicted distinct substrate-acquisition strategies that aligned with observations, uncovering resource-dependent trade-offs between microbial growth rate and efficiency. For instance, inherently slower-growing microorganisms, favoured by organic acid exudation at later plant growth stages, exhibited enhanced carbon use efficiency (yield) without sacrificing growth rate (power). This insight has implications for retaining plant root-derived carbon in soils and highlights the power of data-driven, trait-based approaches for improving microbial representation in biogeochemical models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗

Bayesian analysis of a future β decay experiment's sensitivity to neutrino mass scale and ordering

Bayesian modeling techniques enable sensitivity analyses that incorporate detailed expectations regarding future experiments. A model-based approach also allows one to evaluate inferences and predicted outcomes, by calibrating (or measuring) the consequences incurred when certain results are reported. In this work, we present procedures for calibrating predictions of an experiment's sensitivity to both continuous and discrete parameters. Using these procedures and a new Bayesian model of the β-decay spectrum, we assess a high-precision β-decay experiment's sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale and ordering for one assumed design scenario. We find that such an experiment could measure the electron-weighted neutrino mass within ~40 meV after 1 year (90% credibility). Neutrino masses > 500 meV could be measured within ≈5 meV. Using only β decay and external reactor neutrino data, we find that next-generation β-decay experiments could potentially constrain the mass ordering using a two-neutrino spectral model analysis. By calibrating mass ordering results, we identify reporting criteria that can be tuned to suppress false ordering claims. In some cases, a two-neutrino analysis can reveal that the mass ordering is inverted, an unobtainable result for the traditional one-neutrino analysis approach.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure from Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. An experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (ne) and electron temperature (Te) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (Ip), toroidal magnetic field (Bφ), neutral beam heating power (PNBI) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure From Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. Here, an experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (n e ) and electron temperature (T e ) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (I p ), toroidal magnetic field (B Φ ), neutral beam heating power (P NBI ) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Contaminant Source Identification from Finite Sensor Data: Perron–Frobenius Operator and Bayesian Inference

Sensors in the built environment ensure safety and comfort by tracking contaminants in the occupied space. In the event of contaminant release, it is important to use the limited sensor data to rapidly and accurately identify the release location of the contaminant. Identification of the release location will enable subsequent remediation as well as evacuation decision-making. In previous work, we used an operator theoretic approach—based on the Perron–Frobenius (PF) operator—to estimate the contaminant concentration distribution in the domain given a finite amount of streaming sensor data. In the current work, the approach is extended to identify the most probable contaminant release location. The release location identification is framed as a Bayesian inference problem. The Bayesian inference approach requires considering multiple release location scenarios, which is done efficiently using the discrete PF operator. The discrete PF operator provides a fast, effective and accurate model for contaminant transport modeling. The utility of our PF-based Bayesian inference methodology is illustrated using single-point release scenarios in both two and three-dimensional cases. The method provides a fast, accurate, and efficient framework for real-time identification of contaminant source location.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analytical Modeling of Exoplanet Transit Spectroscopy with Dimensional Analysis and Symbolic Regression

Abstract The physical characteristics and atmospheric chemical composition of newly discovered exoplanets are often inferred from their transit spectra, which are obtained from complex numerical models of radiative transfer. Alternatively, simple analytical expressions provide insightful physical intuition into the relevant atmospheric processes. The deep-learning revolution has opened the door for deriving such analytical results directly with a computer algorithm fitting to the data. As a proof of concept, we successfully demonstrate the use of symbolic regression on synthetic data for the transit radii of generic hot-Jupiter exoplanets to derive a corresponding analytical formula. As a preprocessing step, we use dimensional analysis to identify the relevant dimensionless combinations of variables and reduce the number of independent inputs, which improves the performance of the symbolic regression. The dimensional analysis also allowed us to mathematically derive and properly parameterize the most general family of degeneracies among the input atmospheric parameters that affect the characterization of an exoplanet atmosphere through transit spectroscopy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗