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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

Quantification of marine aerosol subgrid variability and its correlation with clouds based on high‐resolution regional modeling

Abstract One limitation of most global climate models (GCMs) is that with the horizontal resolutions they typically employ, they cannot resolve the subgrid variability (SGV) of clouds and aerosols, adding extra uncertainties to the aerosol radiative forcing estimation. To inform the development of an aerosol subgrid variability parameterization, here we analyze the aerosol SGV over the southern Pacific Ocean simulated by the high‐resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry. We find that within a typical GCM grid, the aerosol mass subgrid standard deviation is 15% of the grid‐box mean mass near the surface on a 1 month mean basis. The fraction can increase to 50% in the free troposphere. The relationships between the sea‐salt mass concentration, meteorological variables, and sea‐salt emission rate are investigated in both the clear and cloudy portion. Under clear‐sky conditions, marine aerosol subgrid standard deviation is highly correlated with the standard deviations of vertical velocity, cloud water mixing ratio, and sea‐salt emission rates near the surface. It is also strongly connected to the grid box mean aerosol in the free troposphere (between 2 km and 4 km). In the cloudy area, interstitial sea‐salt aerosol mass concentrations are smaller, but higher correlation is found between the subgrid standard deviations of aerosol mass and vertical velocity. Additionally, we find that decreasing the model grid resolution can reduce the marine aerosol SGV but strengthen the correlations between the aerosol SGV and the total water mixing ratio (sum of water vapor, cloud liquid, and cloud ice mixing ratios).

Lin, Guangxing↗

The IDAES process modeling framework and model library—Flexibility for process simulation and optimization

Abstract Energy systems and manufacturing processes of the 21st century are becoming increasingly dynamic and interconnected, which require new capabilities to effectively model and optimize their design and operations. Such next generation computational tools must leverage state‐of‐the‐art techniques in optimization and be able to rapidly incorporate new advances. To address these requirements, we have developed the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform, which builds on the strengths of both process simulators (model libraries) and algebraic modeling languages (advanced solvers). This paper specifically presents the IDAES Core Modeling Framework (IDAES‐CMF), along with a case study demonstrating the application of the framework to solve process optimization problems. Capabilities provided by this framework include a flexible, modifiable, open‐source platform for optimization of process flowsheets utilizing state‐of‐the‐art solvers and solution techniques, fully open and extensible libraries of dynamic unit operations models and thermophysical property models, and integrated support for superstructure‐based conceptual design and optimization under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Open‐Source Anaerobic Digestion Modeling Platform, Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 Fast (ADM1F)

An open‐source modeling platform, called Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 Fast (ADM1F), is introduced to achieve fast and numerically stable simulations of anaerobic digestion processes. ADM1F is compatible with an iPython interface to facilitate model configuration, simulation, data analysis, and visualization. Faster simulations and more stable results are accomplished by implementing an advanced open‐source library of numerical methods called Portable Extensive Toolkit for Scientific Computation (PETSc) to solve the ADM1 system of equations. Leveraging PETSc, ADM1F can consistently complete a steady‐state simulation under 0.2 s, over 99% faster than a benchmark ADM1 model implemented with MATLAB while achieving agreement of model outputs within 1% of those obtained with the benchmark model. For dynamic simulations, however, ADM1F has a computational speed advantage only when the influent characteristics update more frequently than every 4 h. The ability of ADM1F to be useful as a tool to study anaerobic digestion systems is demonstrated through two example implementations of ADM1F: (1) a two‐phase co‐digestion scenario evaluating the impact of the organic loading rate and the substrate composition on reactor performance and stability, and (2) a conventional digester scenario assessing the effectiveness of recovery strategies after disruptions that led to instability. These examples demonstrate how the high simulation speed and the convenience of the iPython interface allow ADM1F to complete complex analyses within minutes, much faster than computational strategies currently reported in the literature.

anaerobic co-digestion↗

Adaptive h -refinement for reduced-order models: ADAPTIVE h -refinement for reduced-order models

Our work presents a method to adaptively refine reduced-order models a posteriori without requiring additional full-order-model solves. The technique is analogous to mesh-adaptive h-refinement: it enriches the reduced-basis space online by ‘splitting’ a given basis vector into several vectors with disjoint support. The splitting scheme is defined by a tree structure constructed offline via recursive k-means clustering of the state variables using snapshot data. This method identifies the vectors to split online using a dual-weighted-residual approach that aims to reduce error in an output quantity of interest. The resulting method generates a hierarchy of subspaces online without requiring large-scale operations or full-order-model solves. Furthermore, it enables the reduced-order model to satisfy any prescribed error tolerance regardless of its original fidelity, as a completely refined reduced-order model is mathematically equivalent to the original full-order model. Experiments on a parameterized inviscid Burgers equation highlight the ability of the method to capture phenomena (e.g., moving shocks) not contained in the span of the original reduced basis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling the potential of screen printed front junction CZ silicon solar cell with tunnel oxide passivated back contact

Carrier selective passivated contacts composed of thin oxide, n + polycrystalline Si and metal on top of a n-Si absorber can significantly lower the recombination current density (J orear ≤8 fA/cm 2 ) under the contact while providing excellent specific contact resistance (5–10 mΩ-cm 2 ); 25.1% efficient small area cells with photolithography front contacts on boron doped selective emitter and Fz wafers have been achieved by Fraunhofer ISE using their tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) approach. This paper shows a methodology to model such passivated contact cells using Sentaurus device model, which involves replacing the TOPCon region by carrier selective electron and hole recombination velocities to match the measured J orear of the TOPCon region as well as all the light IV values of the cell. We first validated the methodology by modeling a 24.9% reference cell. The model was then extended to assess the efficiency potential of large area TOPCon cells on commercial grade n-type Cz material with screen-printed front contacts. To use realistic input parameters, a 21% n-type PERT cell was fabricated on Cz wafer (5 Ω-cm, 1.5-ms lifetime). Modeling showed that the cell efficiency will improve to only 21.6% if the back of this cell is replaced by the above TOPCon, and the performance is limited by the homogenous emitter. Efficiency was then modeled to improve to 22.6% with the implementation of selective emitter (150/20 Ω/sq). Lastly, it is shown that screen printing of 40-µm-wide lines and improved bulk material (10 Ω-cm, 3-ms lifetime) can raise the single side TOPCon Cz cell efficiency to 23.2%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantifying sensitivity in numerical weather prediction-modeled offshore wind speeds through an ensemble modeling approach

A decade of research has shown that numerical weather prediction (NWP)-modeled wind speeds can be highly sensitive to the inputs and setups within the NWP model. For wind resource characterization applications, this sensitivity is often addressed by constructing a range of setups and selecting the one that best validates against observations. However, this approach is not possible in areas that lack high-quality hub height observations, especially offshore wind areas. In such cases, techniques to quantify and disseminate confidence in NWP-modeled wind speeds in the absence of observations are needed. We address this need in the present study and propose best practices for quantifying the spread in NWP-modeled wind speeds. We implement an ensemble approach in which we consider 24 different setups to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We construct the ensemble by considering variations in WRF version, WRF namelist, atmospheric forcing, and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Our analysis finds that the standard deviation produces more consistent estimates compared to the interquartile range and tends to be the more conservative estimator for ensemble variability. We further find that model spread increases closer to the surface and on shorter time scales. In conclusion, we explore methods to attribute total ensemble variability to the different ensemble components (e.g., atmospheric forcing and SST product) and find that contributions by components also vary depending on time scale. We anticipate that the methods and results presented in this paper will provide a reasonable foundation for further research into ensemble-based wind resource data sets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Improved zircon fission-track annealing model based on reevaluation of annealing data

The thermal recovery (annealing) of mineral structure modified by the passage of fission fragments has long been studied by the etching technique. In minerals like apatite and zircon, the annealing kinetics are fairly well constrained from the hour to the million-year timescale and have been described by empirical and semi-empirical equations. On the other hand, laboratory experiments, in which ion beams interact with minerals and synthetic ceramics, have shown that there is a threshold temperature beyond which thermal recovery impedes ion-induced amorphization. In this work, it is assumed that this behavior can be extended to the annealing of fission tracks in minerals. It is proposed that there is a threshold temperature, T0, beyond which fission tracks are erased within a time t0, which is independent of the current state of lattice deformation. This implies that iso-annealing curves should converge to a fanning point in the Arrhenius pseudo-space (ln t vs. 1/T). Based on the proposed hypothesis, and laboratory and geological data, annealing equations are reevaluated. The geological timescale estimations of a model arising from this study are discussed through the calculation of partial annealing zone and closure temperature, and comparison with geological sample constraints found in literature. It is shown that the predictions given by this model are closer to field data on closure temperature and partial annealing zone than predictions given by previous models.

annealing↗

Phenomenological Model of Nonlinear Dynamics and Deterministic Chaotic Gas Migration in Bentonite: Experimental Evidence and Diagnostic Parameters

Understanding gas migration in compacted clay materials, e.g., bentonite and claystone, is important for the design and performance assessment of an engineered barrier system of a radioactive waste repository system, as well as many practical applications. Existing field and laboratory data on gas migration processes in low-permeability clay materials demonstrate the complexity of flow and transport processes, including various types of instabilities, caused by nonlinear dynamics of coupled processes of liquid–gas exchange, dilation, fracturing, fracture healing, etc., which cannot be described by classical models of fluid dynamics in porous media. We here show that the complexity of gas migration processes can be explained using a phenomenological concept of nonlinear dynamics and deterministic chaos theory. To do so, we analyzed gas pressure and gas influx (i.e., input) and outflux (i.e., output), recorded during the gas injection experiment in the compact Mx80-D bentonite sample, and calculated a set of the diagnostic parameters of nonlinear dynamics and chaos, such a global embedding dimension, a correlation dimension, an information dimension, and a spectrum of Lyapunov exponents, as well as plotted 2D and 3D pseudo-phase-space strange attractors, based on the univariate influx and outflux time series data. These results indicate the presence of phenomena of low-dimensional deterministic chaotic behavior of gas migration in bentonite. In particular, during the onset of gas influx in the bentonite core, before the breakthrough, the development of gas flow pathways is characterized by the process of chaotic gas diffusion. After the breakthrough, with inlet-to-outlet movement of gas, the prevailing process is chaotic advection. During the final phase of the experiment, with no influx to the sample, the relaxation pattern of gas outflux is resumed back to a process of chaotic diffusion. The types of data analysis and a proposed phenomenological model can be used to establish the basic principles of experimental data-gathering, modeling predictions, and a research design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hundness versus Mottness in a three-band Hubbard–Hund model: On the origin of strong correlations in Hund metals☆

Hund metals are multi-orbital systems with moderate Coulomb interaction, U, among charges and sizeable Hund’s rule coupling, J(<U), that aligns the spins in different orbitals. They show strong correlation effects, like very low Fermi-liquid coherence scales and intriguing incoherent transport regimes, resulting in bad metallic behavior. But to what extent are these strong correlations governed by Mottness, i.e. the blocking of charge fluctuations close to a Mott insulator transition (MIT) induced by U, or by Hundness, a new route towards strong correlations induced by J? To answer this question, we study the full phase diagram of a degenerate three-band Hubbard–Hund model on a Bethe lattice at zero temperature using single-site dynamical mean-field theory and the numerical renormalization group as efficient real-frequency multi-band impurity solver. Hund metal behavior occurs in this minimal model for a filling close to n{sub d}=2, moderate U and sizeable J, the “Hund-metal regime”. In particular, strong correlations manifest themselves there by an unusually low quasiparticle weight. Generalizing previous results on this model, we show that “spin–orbital separation” (SOS) is a generic Hund’s-coupling-induced feature in the whole metallic regime of the phase diagram for 1<n{sub d}<3 and sizeable J. There orbital screening always occurs at much higher energies than spin screening below which Fermi-liquid behavior sets in. The low quasiparticle weight can then be directly explained in terms of the Hund’s-coupling-reduced Fermi-liquid scale. We carefully analyze the effect of J (Hundness), and the effect of the MIT at n{sub d}=2 and n{sub d}=3 (Mottness) on the energy scales and the nature of SOS. In the Hund-metal regime, far from any MIT, Hundness is shown to be the key player to induce strong correlations by constraining the spin rather than the charge dynamics. There, physical properties are governed by a broad incoherent energy regime of SOS where intriguing Hund metal physics occurs: large, almost unscreened spins are coupled to screened orbital degrees of freedom. With increasing proximity to an MIT correlations are further enhanced and the Fermi-liquid scale is further reduced. However, in the Hund-metal regime, this effect of Mottness is minor. In contrast, very close to the MIT at n{sub d}=2, the incoherent spin–orbital separation regime is strongly downscaled and becomes negligibly small, whereas Mottness – the localization of charges – becomes dominant in inducing strong correlations. Close to the MIT at n{sub d}=3, the SOS regime widens up because the orbital degrees of freedom get blocked by the formation of an S=(3/2) impurity spin, but its nature changes: the orbital and spin dynamics get decoupled. Our results confirm Hundness as a distinct mechanism towards strong correlations in the normal state of Hund metals, leading to various interesting implications for the nature of electronic transport.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Model-Free Voltage Control of Active Distribution System with PVs Using Surrogate Model-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning

Accurate knowledge of the distribution system topology and parameters is required to achieve good voltage control performance, but this is difficult to obtain in practice. This paper proposes a physical-model-free voltage control method based on a surrogate-model-enabled deep reinforcement learning approach. Specifically, a surrogate model is trained in a supervised manner using the recorded limited number of historical data to learn the relationship between the power injections and voltage fluctuations of each node. Then, the deep reinforcement learning algorithm is applied to learn an optimal control strategy from the experiences obtained by continuous interactions with the surrogate model. The proposed method can achieve physical-model-free control of unbalanced distribution network and inform real-time decisions to deal with fast voltage fluctuations caused by the rapid variation of PV generation. Simulation results on an unbalance IEEE 123-bus system show that the proposed method can achieve similar performance as that of perfect physical-model-based approaches while being advantageous over other traditional methods.

active distribution network↗

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Wind Resource Data from Different PBL Schemes in the WRF Model: A Case Study Over the Puerto Rico Region

This study examines the modeling uncertainty of wind resource data stemming from the use of various planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF-based wind simulations spanning 20 years at 3-km resolution using 11 different PBL schemes are used to objectively investigate the uncertainty in modeling wind speed for land-based wind (LBW) and offshore wind (OSW) locations in Puerto Rico. The uncertainty in the wind modeling for the 20-year dataset is quantified using the spread index (SI) and standard deviation (SD). For virtual LBW and OSW sites, the SI and SD values are analyzed as calculated across various spatial and temporal scales. Because the PBL's atmospheric stability conditions can be characterized into two dominant categories, the study focuses on analyzing the SI and SD for daytime (mainly unstable PBL conditions) and nighttime (mainly stable PBL conditions). For wind shear (10 m-200 m) at the OSW and LBW sites, WRF-based numerical experiments indicate the following SI (or SD) ranges: 39%-94% (0.74 m/s-1.44 m/s) during the daytime for OSW, 50%-75% (0.68 m/s-1.19 m/s) during the daytime for LBW, 37%-60% (0.73 m/s-1.12 m/s) during the nighttime for OSW, and 57%-143 % (0.65 m/s-1.43 m/s) during the nighttime for LBW. While a high SI is observed when modeling LBW during the nighttime, there are notable modeling uncertainties during the daytime on the leeward side of the orographic barriers for Puerto Rico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Integrating physics-based models with sensor data: An inverse modeling approach

Physics-based building energy models (e.g., EnergyPlus) rely on some unknown input parameters (e.g., zone air infiltration) that are hard to measure, leading to uncertainty in simulation results especially for existing buildings with varying operating conditions. With the increasing deployment of smart thermostats, zone air temperature data are readily available, posing a new opportunity for building energy modeling if such data can be harnessed. This study presents a novel inverse modeling approach which inverses the zone air heat balance equation and uses the measured zone air temperature to analytically calculate the zone air infiltration rate and zone internal thermal mass (e.g., furniture, interior partitions), which are two important model parameters with great variability and difficult to measure. This paper introduces the technical concept and algorithms of the inverse models, their implementation in EnergyPlus, and verification using EnergyPlus simulated building performance data. The inverse modeling approach provides new opportunities for integrating data from massive IoT sensors and devices to enhance the accuracy of simulation results which are used to inform decision making on energy retrofits and efficiency improvements of existing buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A thermodynamic and kinetic model for paste–aggregate interactions and the alkali–silica reaction

A new conceptual model is developed for ASR formation based on geochemical principles tied to aqueous speciation, silica solubility, kinetically controlled mineral dissolution, and diffusion. ASR development is driven largely by pH and silica gradients that establish geochemical microenvironments between paste and aggregate, with gradients the strongest within the aggregate adjacent to the paste boundary (i.e., where ASR initially forms). Super-saturation of magadiite and okenite (crystalline ASR surrogates) occurs in the zone defined by gradients in pH, dissolved silica, Na{sup +}, and Ca{sup 2} {sup +}. This model provides a thermodynamic rather than kinetic explanation of why quartz generally behaves differently from amorphous silica: quartz solubility does not produce sufficiently high concentrations of H{sub 4}SiO{sub 4} to super-saturate magadiite, whereas amorphous silica does. The model also explains why pozzolans do not generate ASR: their fine-grained character precludes formation of chemical gradients. Finally, these gradients have interesting implications beyond the development of ASR, creating unique biogeochemical environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Coupling localized Noah-MP-Crop model with the WRF model improved dynamic crop growth simulation across Northeast China

Croplands play a critical role in regulating the energy and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere. However, the interactions between cropland and climate are usually poorly represented due to a lack of detailed representation in crop types and field management. Here, we coupled the Noah-MP-Crop model with the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to explore and evaluate the crop growth dynamics in response to climate variations across Northeast China. The default parameters of the crop model were not exactly suitable for the agricultural ecosystems in Northeast China. The detailed cropland distribution, and crop phenology parameters including growing degree days (GDD) and planting (harvesting) date were first created using multi-source remote sensing products and reanalysis data, and was then successfully used to simulate the growth and yield for corn and soybean and associated energy exchanges. We also optimized and calibrated other crop parameters using the time-series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface products. The modified crop model substantially improved the simulation of crop growth, plant physiology, and biomass accumulation for both corn and soybean. Coupling the localized dynamic crop model into the WRF led to considerable decreases in the simulated mean-absolute-errors (MAEs) and biases of the leaf area index, evapotranspiration, and gross primary production compared with the MODIS observed values. Compared with the statistical yield from each province, the modified crop model underestimated the corn yield from 11.1% to 48.6%, whereas overestimated the soybean yield from 16.5% to 162.6%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distribution System Segmented Model Simplification with Independent Dynamically Changing End-Use Loads

With more emerging technologies in power distribution systems, to support quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation over short time frames, accurately modeling the dynamic behavior of end-use load under various conditions is im- portant. However, time and cost can be a burden for the QSTS simulation of thousands of houses representing dynamic load behaviors on large distribution feeders. There are two main contributions of this paper in order to reduce the QSTS simulation complexity. First, the paper presents a method to stochasti- cally model the dynamic behavior of end-use load for QSTS simulations. Second, using the stochastically modeled load behavior as an input to a distribution sys- tem, and building on our previous QSTS simulation simplification/acceleration method that relies on uniform load behavior, this paper presents a segment substitution approach for the simplification of distribution system models with independent dynamically changing end-use loads. Our numerical results show that compared to GridLAB-D, a software tool that simulates end-use load be- havior through physical models, the proposed stochastic modeling approach achieved an 89.3% simulation time reduction for end-use loads, while accurately capturing the temporally changing total load behavior. Moreover, the QSTS simulation of a large test distribution system through OpenDSS showed that the proposed simplification method decreased the feeder simulation time by a factor of three at less than 0.3% voltage error. Compared to our previous method with independent dynamic loads, the voltage error is reduced by a factor of four.

Power distribution system modeling, stochastic pro↗

Thermodynamic modeling of MDEA(aq)-NH 3 (aq)-K 2 CO 3 (aq)-CO 2 (aq) using the Extended UNIQUAC model

Here, the development of advanced processes for carbon dioxide capture requires reliable thermodynamic models to ensure accurate process design. This work presents an optimized parameter set of the Extended UNIQUAC model for advanced mixed solvent solutions containing CO 2 -MDEA-NH 3 -K 2 CO 3 in water. The model was parameterized using vapor–liquid equilibrium, pure component saturation pressure, excess enthalpy, heat of absorption, molar heat capacity, apparent molar heat capacity, and solid–liquid equilibrium. These thermal and equilibrium properties cover temperatures between 253.6 K to 600 K and pressures up to 75.6 bar. The current model represents an extension of previous versions that were suitable for modeling aqueous NH 3 and K 2 CO 3 solutions. This parametrization accounts for molecular interactions between MDEA and these two components, which allows for the design of advanced capture processes. This paper demonstrates that the new model parameters are valid within the range of operational conditions typically found in CO 2 capture processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗