SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Interannual variability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,148 records · Page 64

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2001

Sea Ice and Ice Temperature Variability as Observed by Microwave and Infrared Satellite Data

Recent reports of a retreating and thinning sea ice cover in the Arctic have pointed to a strong suggestion of significant warming in the polar regions. It is especially important to understand what these reports mean in light of the observed global warning and because the polar regions are expected to be most sensitive to changes in climate. To gain insight into this phenomenon, co-registered ice concentrations and surface temperatures derived from two decades of satellite microwave and infrared data have been processed and analyzed. While observations from meteorological stations indicate consistent surface warming in both regions during the last fifty years, the last 20 years of the same data set show warming in the Arctic but a slight cooling in the Antarctic. These results are consistent with the retreat in the Arctic ice cover and the advance in the Antarctic ice cover as revealed by historical satellite passive microwave data. Surface temperatures derived from satellite infrared data are shown to be consistent within 3 K with surface temperature data from the limited number of stations. While not as accurate, the former provides spatially detailed changes over the twenty year period. In the Arctic, for example, much of the warming occurred in the Beaufort Sea and the North American region in 1998 while slight cooling actually happened in parts of the Laptev Sea and Northern Siberia during the same time period. Big warming anomalies are also observed during the last five years but a periodic cycle of about ten years is apparent suggesting a possible influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the Antarctic, large interannual and seasonal changes are also observed in the circumpolar ice cover with regional changes showing good coherence with surface temperature anomalies. However, a mode 3 is observed to be more dominant than the mode 2 wave reported in the literature. Some of these spatial and temporal changes appear to be influenced by the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) and changes in coastal polynya activities.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Synoptic Mapping of Chemical Composition, Thermal Structure, and Air Motion from UARS Observations

An operational mapping algorithm was developed to process measurements of individual species observed by different satellite instruments on board UARS. Based on Fast Fourier Synoptic Mapping (FFSM), the algorithm accounts for the precessing orbit of UARS, the error of individual instruments, and gaps associated with instrument duty cycle and the satellite yaw maneuver. It provides synoptic structure and evolution on periods as short as 1 day, derived collectively from all observations of an individual species. The algorithm was applied to synoptically map temperature, thickness, and several chemical constituents observed by the instruments: MLS, CLAES, ISAMS, and HALOE. Each field variable observed by these instruments was mapped twice-daily in continuous global time series several months long. Mapped behavior produced via FFSM was compared against standard archived products generated via Kalman filtering. The standard map products reveal similar behavior, but are limited to features of larger scale. Tracer structure that develops through flow deformation and attending transport is therefore represented in those products more coarsely, eventually being sheared down to scales that are no longer represented properly. The synoptic time series also reveal a diurnal cycle for several of the constituents, one that emerges clearly in their space-time spectra. The zonal and meridional structure of diurnal variability was mapped by filtering the space-time spectrum, an intermediate product of FFSM, to those scales resolved by the UARS sampling. Geographical variations of the diurnal cycle have also been evaluated in its seasonal-mean structure by compositing distributions at individual local times. Both were compared to diurnal variations in chemical models and in dynamical models that account for transport by the diurnal tide. Diurnal variations were found to introduce spurious behavior into the archived products generated via Kalman filtering, behavior that is misrepresented in those synoptic time series. Aliasing by under-sampled diurnal variations introduces a bias into the time-mean structure of archived products. That systematic error is manifested as anomalous wave structure in the time-mean fields. By contrast, synoptic time series generated via FFSM faithfully represent such behavior as varying diurnally, so it does not corrupt time-mean structure. Tracer structure mapped via the above algorithm was being applied to determine the Brewer-Dobson circulation of the stratosphere through Lagrangian considerations. Preliminary results are encouraging: They reveal diabatic ascent in the tropics, balanced by diabatic descent over the winter hemisphere. This Lagrangian description of transport derived from UARS tracer measurements would be potentially valuable for diagnosing interannual changes of transport, specifically, in relation to interannual changes of total ozone. Regrettably, support was reduced to 50% of the approved funding level, leaving this component incomplete.

Salby, Murry L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

An Assessment of the Impact of the 1997-98 El Nino on the Asian-Australian Monsoon

Using state-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analyses of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the AA-monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions during the boreal summer and winter respectively. The observed 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies of the Asian (boreal) summer monsoon and 74% of the Australia (austral) monsoon attributable to basin-scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19% and 10%, leaving about 47% and 16% due to internal dynamics for the boreal and austral monsoon respectively. For the boreal summer monsoon, it is noted that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also intrinsic monsoon regional coupled processes.

Lau, K.-M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Framework for optimization of long-term, multi-period investment planning of integrated urban energy systems

In order to achieve stringent greenhouse gas emission reductions, a transition of our entire energy system from fossil to renewable resources needs to be designed. Such an energy transition brings two main challenges: most renewables generate variable electric energy, yet most demand is currently not electric (carrier mismatch) and does not always manifest at the same time as supply (temporal mismatch). Integrating multiple energy infrastructures can address both challenges by using the synergy between different energy carriers; building on existing infrastructure, while allowing a robust and flexible integration of the new. This paper proposes an optimization framework for long-term, multi-period investment planning of urban energy systems in an integrated manner. We formulate it as a mixed-integer linear program, combining a capacitated facility location with a multi-dimensional, capacitated network design problem. It includes generation and network expansion planning as well as interconnections between networks and storage infrastructure for each energy system. It can incorporate pathway effects like techno-economic developments, policy measures, and weather variations. The intended use is to support urban decision makers with long-term investment planning, though it can be tailored to fit other geographical or temporal scales. We demonstrate the model using two cases based on an average city in The Netherlands, which wants to reduce its CO 2 -emissions with 95% by 2050. In the first case, we include explicit carbon-emission constraints to study the effects of the carrier mismatch. In the second case, we implement interannual weather variations to analyze the temporal mismatch. The results give valuable insights into the energy transition design strategy for urban decision makers. They also show the future potential, as well as the computational challenges of the optimization framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1999

Assessment of the 1997-1998 Asian Monsoon Anomalies

Using State-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analysis of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the Asian monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions. it is noted that some subcontinental regions such as all-India, or arbitrarily chosen land regions over East Asia, while important socio-economically, are not near the centers of influence from El Nino, hence are not necessarily representative of the response of the entire monsoon region to El Nino. The observed 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies attributable to basin- scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19%, leaving about 47% due to internal dynamics. Also noted is that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also monsoon regional coupled processes and their modulation by long-term climate change.

Lau, William K.-M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified according to SST and vertical motion regimes. Comparisons to the TRMM/CERES SRB data in 1998 are also interpreted. These radiative fluxes are then analyzed to determine how surface (and TOA) radiative exchanges respond to interannual signals of ENS0 warm and cold events. Our analysis includes regional changes as well as integrated signals over land, ocean and various latitude bands. Changes in water vapor and cloud forcing signatures are prominent on interannual time scales. Prominent signals are also found in the SW fluxes for the Pinatubo volcanic event. These systematic changes in fluxes are related to changes in large-scale circulations and energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Some estimates of signal-to-noise and reliability are discussed to place our results in context.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Carbon Dynamics in Vegetation and Soils

The overall goals of CD-08 team in Phase I were to quantify the contributions of different components of the carbon cycle to overall ecosystem carbon balance in Amazonian tropical forests and to undertake process studies at a number of sites along the eastern LBA transect to understand how and why these fluxes vary with site, season, and year. We divided this work into a number of specific tasks: (1) determining the average rate (and variability) of tree growth over the past 3 decades; (2) determining age demographics of tree populations, using radiocarbon to determine tree age; (3) assessing the rate of production and decomposition of dead wood debris; (4) determining turnover rates for organic matter in soils and the mean age of C respired from soil using radiocarbon measurements; and (5) comparing our results with models and constructing models to predict the potential of tropical forests to function as sources or sinks of C. This report summarizes the considerable progress made towards our original goals, which have led to increased understanding of the potential for central Amazon forests to act as sources or sinks of carbon with altered productivity. The overall picture of tropical forest C dynamics emerging from our Phase I studies suggests that the fraction of gross primary production allocated to growth in these forests is only 25-30%, as opposed to the 50% assumed by many ecosystem models. Consequent slow tree growth rates mean greater mean tree age for a given diameter, as reflected in our measurements and models of tree age. Radiocarbon measurements in leaf and root litter suggest that carbon stays in living tree biomass for several years up to a decade before being added to soils, where decomposition is rapid. The time lags predicted from 14C, when coupled with climate variation on similar time scales, can lead to significant interannual variation in net ecosystem C exchange.

Trumbore, Susan↗

NASA NTRS2004

[Analysis of Multiplatform CO (Carbon Monoxide) Measurements During Trace-P Mission]

Carbon monoxide is considered mission critical (TRACE-P NRA) because it is one of the gases involved in controlling the oxidizing power of the atmosphere and, as a tracer gas, is valuable in interpreting mission data sets. Carbon monoxide exhibits interannual differences, suggesting relatively short-term imbalances in sources and sinks. Sources of CO are dominated by fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning, and the photochemical oxidation of CH4 and nonmethane hydrocarbons while reaction with OH is believed to be the major sink for atmospheric CO, with additional losses due to soil uptake. Uncertainties in the magnitude and distribution of both sources and sinks remain fairly large however, and additional data are required to refine the global budget. Seasonal changes and a northern hemispheric latitudinal gradient have been described for a variety of Pacific basin sites through long-term monitoring of surface background levels. Latitudinal variations have also recently been described at upper tropospheric altitudes over a multi-year period by. TRACE-P will provide an aircraft survey of CO over the northern Pacific in the northern spring when CO concentrations are at their seasonal maximum in the northern hemisphere (NH) and at their seasonal minimum in the southern hemisphere (SH). Previous GTE missions, Le., PEM West-B and PEM Tropics-B, ground-based, and satellite observations (MAPS, April 1994) give us a general picture of the distribution of CO over the northern Pacific during this season. Based on these measurements, background CO levels over remote ocean areas are anticipated to be in the range of 110 - 180 ppbv, while those closer to the Asian continent may rise as high as 600 ppbv. These measurements also reveal high spatial variability (both horizontal and vertical) as well as temporal variations in CO over the area planned for the TRACE-P mission. This variability is a result of multiple CO sources, the meteorological complexity of transport processes, and the photochemical aging of air masses. The influence of biomass burning in the southern Pacific should be relatively small since the mission coincides with the southern tropical wet season when agricultural burning is at its seasonal low. The proposed CO measurements taken during TRACE-P should therefore largely be a function of the impact of various NH sources, primarily Asian and predominantly fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning. These processes are also major sources of many other atmospheric pollutants, consequently making accurate and precise CO measurements is one of the highest TRACE-P priorities [TRACE-P NRA]. The TRACE-P mission emphasizes the dual objectives of assessing the magnitude of the transport of chemically and radiatively important gases such as CO from Asia to the western Pacific, and determining how emissions change and are modified during this transport.

Pougatchev, Nikita S.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA Team 2 Sea Ice Concentration Algorithm Retrieval Uncertainty

Satellite microwave radiometers are widely used to estimate sea ice cover properties (concentration, extent, and area) through the use of sea ice concentration (IC) algorithms. Rare are the algorithms providing associated IC uncertainty estimates. Algorithm uncertainty estimates are needed to assess accurately global and regional trends in IC (and thus extent and area), and to improve sea ice predictions on seasonal to interannual timescales using data assimilation approaches. This paper presents a method to provide relative IC uncertainty estimates using the enhanced NASA Team (NT2) IC algorithm. The proposed approach takes advantage of the NT2 calculations and solely relies on the brightness temperatures (TBs) used as input. NT2 IC and its associated relative uncertainty are obtained for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) TB. NT2 IC relative uncertainties estimated on a footprint-by-footprint swath-by-swath basis were averaged daily over each 12.5-km grid cell of the polar stereographic grid. For both hemispheres and throughout the year, the NT2 relative uncertainty is less than 5%. In the Southern Hemisphere, it is low in the interior ice pack, and it increases in the marginal ice zone up to 5%. In the Northern Hemisphere, areas with high uncertainties are also found in the high IC area of the Central Arctic. Retrieval uncertainties are greater in areas corresponding to NT2 ice types associated with deep snow and new ice. Seasonal variations in uncertainty show larger values in summer as a result of melt conditions and greater atmospheric contributions. Our analysis also includes an evaluation of the NT2 algorithm sensitivity to AMSR-E sensor noise. There is a 60% probability that the IC does not change (to within the computed retrieval precision of 1%) due to sensor noise, and the cumulated probability shows that there is a 90% chance that the IC varies by less than +/-3%. We also examined the daily IC variability, which is dominated by sea ice drift and ice formation/melt. Daily IC variability is the highest, year round, in the MIZ (often up to 20%, locally 30%). The temporal and spatial distributions of the retrieval uncertainties and the daily IC variability is expected to be useful for algorithm intercomparisons, climate trend assessments, and possibly IC assimilation in models.

Sea Ice↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regional and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric River Seasonality: Influences of Detection Algorithms and Moisture Transport Dynamics

Abstract Understanding the regional and temporal variability of atmospheric river (AR) seasonality is crucial for preparedness and mitigation of extreme events. While ARs were thought to peak in winter, recent research shows they exhibit region‐specific seasonality and are heavily influenced by the chosen detection algorithm. This study examines the link between the year‐to‐year consistency of peak‐AR activity to the presence of a dominant seasonal pattern, considering both location and algorithm choice. Regions are categorized by their temporal characteristics: consistent patterns (e.g., East Asia), patterns with occasional outliers (e.g., British Columbia coast), and regions lacking a clear dominant peak season (e.g., South Atlantic, parts of Australia). Hence, not all regions display a consistent seasonal cycle of AR activity. This study quantifies the extent to which a region experiences a dominant peak season of AR activity (or lacks one) and offers insights to enhance decision‐making in water management, natural hazard preparedness, and forecasting. Furthermore, given our finding that detection algorithms influence the peak season of AR activity, we also examine two diagnostic variables representative of moisture transport to corroborate our results. Integrated vapor transport, which captures meridional and zonal moisture transport, and Moist Wave Activity, representing moisture intrusions from lower to higher latitudes, are examined. Our analysis indicates that inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle of AR activity are not solely due to discrepancies in detection algorithms but also arise from changes in moisture transport. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are critical weather phenomena that can cause extreme events like heavy rainfall and flooding. Understanding when and where ARs are most likely to occur throughout the year is essential for preparing and responding to these events. Traditionally, ARs were thought to peak in winter, but recent studies show this varies by region. Our study helps address the challenge decision‐makers face in anticipating and preparing for AR events by providing insights into the consistency of peak seasonal patterns across different areas. Some regions, like East Asia, and the British Columbia coast, show a consistent peak season, while others, like the South Atlantic and parts of Australia, have significant year‐to‐year variations, making it hard to identify a dominant season. To better understand these changes over time, the study also examines how moisture moves in the atmosphere, using Integrated Vapor Transport (which looks at moisture movement in various directions) and Moist Wave Activity (which tracks moisture shifts from lower to higher latitudes). The findings suggest that inconsistencies in AR patterns are due not only to detection methods but also due to changes in moisture transport. Key Points The peak season of atmospheric river activity can change depending on the year in some areas Interannual variations in the peak season can make identifying a dominant season challenging for some regions Frequent shifts in peak season across years reflect inconsistencies tied to detection algorithms and to underlying dynamics

Kamnani, Diya↗

NASA NTRS1994

Ozone and stratospheric height waves for opposite phases of the QBO

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) provides an important source of interannual variations in the Northern Hemisphere. O'sullivan and Salby (1990) related extra-tropical eddy transport with the phase of the tropical QBO. When the tropical wind is easterly, the zero wind line is shifted into the winter hemisphere. Enhanced wave activity in middle latitudes acts to weaken the polar vortex. When the tropical wind is in the westerly phase the situation reverses. Heights at 30 mb and ozone configurations are contrasted in this paper for these two QBO phases. When the winter vortex deforms due to the amplification of planetary waves 1 and 2, extends westward and equatorward, the complementary band of low vorticity air spirals in toward the pole from lower latitudes. Sometimes, these planetary waves break (Juckes and McIntyre, 1987) and an irreversible mixing of air takes place between high and mid-latitudes. Global ozone patterns, as obtained form satellite observations, appear to be affected by planetary wave breaking (Leovy et al. 1985). This mixing results on regions with uniform ozone and potential vorticity. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), Newman and Randel (1988) using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data and the NMC analyses have found strong spatial correlation between the October mean temperature in the lower stratosphere and total ozone for the 1979 through 1986 years. Recently Nogues-Paegle et al.(1992) analyzed SH ozone and height data from 1986 to 1989. They found that leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) for both ozone and 50 mb heights exhibit zonal wave 1 and 2 and that the correlations between ozone and 50 mb principal components (PCs) are high. The results were found to be consistent with a linear planetary wave advecting a passive tracer. In this paper, the dominant patterns of variability for 30 mb NMC heights and TOMS total ozone are obtained for the winter to summer transition (January to May) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for the years 1987-1990.

Mo, Kingtse C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Sea Surface Salinity Distribution in the Southern Ocean as Observed from Space

Large-scale spatial and temporal variabilities of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Southern Ocean from 2011 to 2017 were studied using products derived from microwave sensors on board Aquarius, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) satellites. Four products, three from Aquarius and one from SMOS, were evaluated and shown to be generally consistent within 0.3 to 0.6 psu and agree favorably with in situ measurements. However, although the Aquarius products show consistent seasonality of SSS with high values of 34.45 psu in October and low values of 33.40 psu in May, theSMOS and SMAP products lack such seasonal variations. This may be caused by larger uncertainties in the SMOS and SMAP data due in part to the lack of concurrent scatterometer measurements that is used to correct for roughness effects. The four products provide similar spatial distributions of SSS with root mean square difference from 0.25 to 0.58 psu. Differences among Aquarius products are mainly due to varying salinity retrieval algorithms, smoothing, and masking of sea ice, while the SMOS product showed the highest SSS deviation that is likely due to the bias adjustment done on the data set. Our analyses show that SSS in the Southern Ocean region has significant meridional variations with the lowest SSS near the ice edge and highest at lower latitudes. The SSS is also lowest in summer indicating the predominant influence of sea ice and glacial melt, but it stays low near ice edges even during the growth season. Salinity together with temperature is the key parameters that control the state and circulation of the World's oceans. The large‐scale distribution of the sea surface salinity of the Southern Ocean is quantified for the first time using Aquarius, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, and Soil Moisture Active and Passive satellite microwave data. Seasonal and interannual changes in the distribution as affected by the sea ice cover, surface temperature, and precipitation are evaluated. Comparative studies were done, using four different products that are publicly available, in conjunction with in situ observations to gain insights into the true nature of the distribution and how consistently the sea surface salinity is depicted by the different products. There are general consistencies in the products, and discrepancies are attributed to different algorithms, smoothing techniques, and sea ice masking. Aquarius data are shown to have higher accuracy than Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity and Soil Moisture Active and Passive products in part because of having concurrent scatterometer that provides accurate correction to roughness effects.

Garcia-Eidell, Cynthia↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recent Widespread Deceleration of Global Surface Urban Heat Islands Unveiled by Satellites

Tracking the temporal dynamics of urban heat island (UHI) is critical for urban heat adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, whether UHI trends have shifted recently and their underlying drivers remain unknown. Here we investigate the variabilities in surface UHI trends and their associated determinants in 2,104 cities worldwide from 2000 to 2022. Our findings reveal that approximately half of the world's cities have experienced notable shifts in surface UHI trends, predominantly characterized by UHI deceleration. These shifts can be primarily attributed to alterations in vegetation trends during the day and to modifications in surface albedo and local warming trends at night. Our study challenges the conventional linear models commonly employed to estimate surface UHI trends, suggesting potential biases in such estimates. Our findings underscore the need for nuanced policies to curtail UHI growth by considering changes in urban underlying surfaces and background climate, particularly from a nonlinear perspective.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The role of interannual ENSO events in decadal timescale transitions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

The build-up of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide necessary conditions for interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to contribute to decadal timescale transitions of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This can be viewed as a corollary to subseasonal westerly wind burst events contributing to El Niño interannual timescale transitions. In this work, a long pre-industrial control run with CESM1 is analyzed to show that there is a greater chance of ENSO activity to contribute to an IPO transition when off-equatorial western Pacific Ocean heat content reaches either a maximum (for El Niño to contribute to a transition to positive IPO) or minimum (for La Niña to contribute to a transition to negative IPO) as seen in observations. If above a necessary ocean heat content threshold, the convergence associated with westerly anomaly near-equatorial surface winds associated with El Niño activity can draw that heat content equatorward to sustain anomalously warm western and central Pacific SSTs. These are associated with positive precipitation and convective heating anomalies, a Gill-type response and wind stress curl anomalies that continue to feed warm water into the near-equatorial western Pacific. These conditions then sustain the decadal-timescale transition to positive IPO (with the opposite sign for transition to negative IPO). Associated central equatorial Pacific convective heating anomalies produce SLP and wind stress anomalies in the North and South Pacific that can excite westward-propagating off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves to contribute to the western Pacific thermocline depth and consequent heat content anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗