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At least 1,153 records · Page 64
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DOE OSTI2020

Imaging of a fluid injection process using geophysical data — A didactic example

In many subsurface industrial applications, fluids are injected into or withdrawn from a geologic formation. It is of practical interest to quantify precisely where, when, and by how much the injected fluid alters the state of the subsurface. Routine geophysical monitoring of such processes attempts to image the way that geophysical properties, such as seismic velocities or electrical conductivity, change through time and space and to then make qualitative inferences as to where the injected fluid has migrated. The more rigorous formulation of the time-lapse geophysical inverse problem forecasts how the subsurface evolves during the course of a fluid-injection application. Using time-lapse geophysical signals as the data to be matched, the model unknowns to be estimated are the multiphysics forward-modeling parameters controlling the fluid-injection process. Properly reproducing the geophysical signature of the flow process, subsequent simulations can predict the fluid migration and alteration in the subsurface. The dynamic nature of fluid-injection processes renders imaging problems more complex than conventional geophysical imaging for static targets. This work intents to clarify the related hydrogeophysical parameter estimation concepts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aftershocks of a Chemical Explosion in Granite from the Source Physics Experiment Phase I

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is a multiphase experiment to better understand explosion source physics and thereby improve explosion monitoring. The rst phase (Phase I) examined the explosion source in a hard-rock medium and took place in a granite outcrop called the Climax Stock section of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). This series of chemical explosions are called the Wet Granite Geology (WGG) events, but are usually referred to simply as the SPE events (i.e., SPE-1, SPE-2, etc.). Event information for the chemical explosions is given in Table 1. The study of explosion aftershocks can aid in understanding of in-situ stresses and be used as a discriminant for earthquakes [Ford and Walter, 2010]. Sweeney and Harben reported no observed aftershocks for SPE-1 and -2, respectively. They calculated a minimum magnitude of observation based on the noise oor of the seismic array and predicted at least one or two events in the week after the events using the hard-rock aftershock model from Ford and Labak. Possible explanations for the null observation ranged from instrumental - poor seismometer coupling, to physical - the shallow depth of burial was unable to access the deep tectonic stress that causes some explosion aftershocks. We extend the analysis of Sweeney and Harben to the largest of the SPE Phase I chemical explosions, SPE-5, which was approximately a 5 tonne TNT-equivalent shot at 76.5 m depth. This event registered as an M L 2 on the University of Nevada, Reno seismic network and should produce a measurable aftershock sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

Abstract. Evapotranspiration (ET) is critical in linking global water, carbon and energy cycles. However, direct measurement of global terrestrial ET is not feasible. Here, we first reviewed the basic theory and state-of-the-art approaches for estimating global terrestrial ET, including remote-sensing-based physical models, machine-learning algorithms and land surface models (LSMs). We then utilized 4 remote-sensing-based physical models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 LSMs to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in global terrestrial ET. The results showed that the ensemble means of annual global terrestrial ET estimated by these three categories of approaches agreed well, with values ranging from 589.6 mm yr-1 (6.56×104 km3 yr-1) to 617.1 mm yr-1 (6.87×10 4 km3 yr -1 ). For the period from 1982 to 2011, both the ensembles of remote-sensing-based physical models and machine-learning algorithms suggested increasing trends in global terrestrial ET (0.62 mm yr -2 with a significance level of p<0.05 and 0.38 mm yr -2 with a significance level of p<0.05, respectively). In contrast, the ensemble mean of the LSMs showed no statistically significant change (0.23 mm yr -2 , p>0.05), although many of the individual LSMs reproduced an increasing trend. Nevertheless, all 20 models used in this study showed that anthropogenic Earth greening had a positive role in increasing terrestrial ET. The concurrent small interannual variability, i.e., relative stability, found in all estimates of global terrestrial ET, suggests that a potential planetary boundary exists in regulating global terrestrial ET, with the value of this boundary being around 600 mm yr -1 . Uncertainties among approaches were identified in specific regions, particularly in the Amazon Basin and arid/semiarid regions. Improvements in parameterizing water stress and canopy dynamics, the utilization of new available satellite retrievals and deep-learning methods, and model–data fusion will advance our predictive understanding of global terrestrial ET.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Timescales and Processes of Methane Hydrate Formation and Breakdown, With Application to Geologic Systems

Abstract Gas hydrate is an ice‐like form of water and low molecular weight gas stable at temperatures of roughly −10°C to 25°C and pressures of ~3 to 30 MPa in geologic systems. Natural gas hydrates sequester an estimated one sixth of Earth's methane and are found primarily in deepwater marine sediments on continental margins, but also in permafrost areas and under continental ice sheets. When gas hydrate is removed from its stability field, its breakdown has implications for the global carbon cycle, ocean chemistry, marine geohazards, and interactions between the geosphere and the ocean‐atmosphere system. Gas hydrate breakdown can also be artificially driven as a component of studies assessing the resource potential of these deposits. Furthermore, geologic processes and perturbations to the ocean‐atmosphere system (e.g., warming temperatures) can cause not only dissociation, but also more widespread dissolution of hydrate or even formation of new hydrate in reservoirs. Linkages between gas hydrate and disparate aspects of Earth's near‐surface physical, chemical, and biological systems render an assessment of the rates and processes affecting the persistence of gas hydrate an appropriate Centennial Grand Challenge. This paper reviews the thermodynamic controls on methane hydrate stability and then describes the relative importance of kinetic, mass transfer, and heat transfer processes in the formation and breakdown (dissociation and dissolution) of gas hydrate. Results from numerical modeling, laboratory, and some field studies are used to summarize the rates of hydrate formation and breakdown, followed by an extensive treatment of hydrate dynamics in marine and cryospheric gas hydrate systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short–Term Forecasting of Wind Gusts at Airports Across CONUS Using Machine Learning

Short–term forecasting of wind gusts, particularly those of higher intensity, is of great societal importance but is challenging due to the presence of multiple gust generation mechanisms. Wind gust observations from eight high–passenger–volume airports across the continental United States (CONUS) are summarized and used to develop predictive models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. These short–term (same hour) forecast models are built using multiple logistic and linear regression, as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) of varying complexity. A suite of 19 upper–air predictors drawn from the ERA5 reanalysis and an autoregressive (AR) term are used. Stepwise procedures instruct predictor selection, and resampling is used to quantify model stability. All models are developed separately for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. Results show that ANNs of 3–5 hidden layers (HLs) generally exhibit higher hit rates than logistic regression models and also improve skill with respect to wind gust magnitudes. However, deeper networks with more HLs increase false alarm rates in occurrence models and mean absolute error in magnitude models due to model overfitting. For model skill, inclusion of the AR term is critical while the majority of the remaining skill derives from wind speeds and lapse rates. A predictive ceiling is also clearly demonstrated, particularly for the strong and damaging gust magnitudes, which appears to be partially due to ERA5 predictor characteristics and the presence of mixed wind climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Basin-scale study of CO 2 storage in stacked sequence of geological formations

Commercial scale decarbonization through carbon capture and storage may likely involve many CO 2 storage projects located in close proximity. The close proximity could raise concerns over caprock integrity associated with reservoir pressure buildup and interference among adjacent projects. Commercial-scale injection will also require large prospective CO 2 storage resource and high injectivity in the targeted storage formations. To accommodate the need for both large resource and high injectivity, project operators could consider injecting CO 2 into a stacked sequence of formations. This analysis investigates the benefits of injecting CO 2 into a vertically stacked sequence of saline formations, over injecting the same amount of CO 2 into a single saline formation, in addressing these challenges. Our analysis shows that injecting into the stacked sequence mitigates the extent of pressure buildup among the stacked formations, while still achieving the same or greater target CO 2 storage volumes. Among cases modeled, the resulting pressure buildup front is most reduced when each storage site distributes injection volumes over several wells, each of which injects a portion of the total CO 2 mass across the stacked sequence. This favorable case not only results in the smallest CO 2 aerial footprint, but also shows the largest reduction in the pressure buildup at the top of perforation at the injection wells (upwards of approximately 46% compared to the single-formation storage), the result of which is crucial to maintain caprock integrity. This analysis provides insights into required decision-making when considering multi-project deployment in a shared basin.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Oxidation and Associated Pore Structure Modification During Experimental Alteration of Granite

Weathering plays a crucial role in a number of environmental processes, and the microstructure and evolution of multi-scale pore space is a critically important factor in the weathering of geological formations. In igneous rocks the infiltration of meteoric water into initially relatively dry material can cause the rock to begin to disaggregate, increasing porosity and surface area, and allowing further disaggregation and weathering to occur. These processes, in turn, allow biota to colonize the rock, further enhancing the weathering rate. In some igneous rocks this may be driven by oxidation of primary minerals. One such mineral, biotite, has been repeatedly mentioned as a cause of cracking during oxidation. However, the scale-dependence of the processes by which this occurs are poorly understood. We cannot, therefore, accurately extrapolate laboratory reaction rates to the field in predictive numerical models. In order to better understand the effects of oxidation and test the hypothesis that fracture and disaggregation are initiated by swelling of oxidizing biotites, we reacted granite cores in a selenic acid-rich aqueous solution at 200°C for up to 438 days. Elevated temperatures and selenic acid were used to provide relatively fast reaction rates and highly oxidizing conditions in sealed reaction vessels. These experiments were analyzed using a combination of imaging, X-ray diffraction, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and small- and ultra-small angle neutron scattering to interrogate porosity and microfracture formation. The experimental results show little observable biotite swelling, but significant transport and growth of iron oxides and/or clays along grain boundaries throughout the sample. Significant increases in porosity were also observed at the sample rim, likely associated with feldspar alteration. Fractures and transport were observed throughout the core, suggesting that stresses due to crystallization pressures caused by the growing iron phases may be the initiating factors in granite weathering, possibly followed by biotite swelling after sufficient permeability is achieved.

Anovitz, Lawrence M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

CompLaB v1.0: a scalable pore-scale model for flow, biogeochemistry, microbial metabolism, and biofilm dynamics

Abstract. Microbial activity and chemical reactions in porous media depend on the local conditions at the pore scale and can involve complex feedback with fluid flow and mass transport. We present a modeling framework that quantitatively accounts for the interactions between the bio(geo)chemical and physical processes and that can integrate genome-scale microbial metabolic information into a dynamically changing, spatially explicit representation of environmental conditions. The model couples a lattice Boltzmann implementation of Navier–Stokes (flow) and advection–diffusion-reaction (mass conservation) equations. Reaction formulations can include both kinetic rate expressions and flux balance analysis, thereby integrating reactive transport modeling and systems biology. We also show that the use of surrogate models such as neural network representations of in silico cell models can speed up computations significantly, facilitating applications to complex environmental systems. Parallelization enables simulations that resolve heterogeneity at multiple scales, and a cellular automaton module provides additional capabilities to simulate biofilm dynamics. The code thus constitutes a platform suitable for a range of environmental, engineering and – potentially – medical applications, in particular ones that involve the simulation of microbial dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Offshore Storage Resource Potential in the Central Planning Area of the Gulf of Mexico

This report contains a brief overview of the several studies that provide the basis for this work and details the reservoir characterization efforts that have been completed to date. Briefly, geological characterization data suggests that the deep-water reservoirs are the result of the interplay between turbidite depositional systems and salt tectonics. Project Partners have estimated the CO 2 storage capacity associated with saline reservoirs and that associated with CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) in the state waters of Louisiana. In addition, Project Partners have conducted a detailed analysis of CO 2 storage potential associated with CO 2 -EOR in the central planning area of the GOM. This work estimates that 3,140 million metric tonnes of CO 2 can be stored in optimal reservoirs of the shallow- and deep-water central GOM. A reduced order modeling and machine learning approach is introduced that will be used to evaluate CO 2 storage capacity and plume dynamics for down-selected, reservoir-specific, saline characterization. Last, a brief discussion establishes how the data presented in this report will support future work.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

The time since land-use transition drives changes in fire activity in the Amazon-Cerrado region

Abstract Deforestation and climate change are expected to alter fire regimes along the Cerrado-Amazon transition, one of the world’s most active agricultural frontiers. Here we tested the hypothesis that the time since land-use transition (age of frontier) and agricultural intensification also drive changes in the region’s fire regimes by reducing fire probability in both drought and non-drought years. We modeled fire probability as a function of the time since land-use transitions based on MapBiomas Project datasets from 1986 to 2020. We find that, while burned area declined as pasturelands aged and croplands advanced, deforestation abruptly increased fire activity before (Amazon: 4 years; Cerrado: 3 years) and after (Amazon: 8 years; Cerrado: 7 years) land clearing for pasture, especially in the Amazon. Additionally, the combination of ignition risk, drought, and air-dryness increased the likelihood of large extents of burned areas associated with deforestation. Incorporating frontier age as a proxy for governance in fire modeling is crucial, given the ecological implications of changing fire regimes despite declining rates of fire probability. Most importantly, protecting against deforestation and preserving native vegetation are vital.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mars Extant Life: What's Next? Conference Report

On November 5–8, 2019, the ‘‘Mars Extant Life: What’s Next?’’ conference was convened in Carlsbad, New Mexico. The conference gathered a community of actively publishing experts in disciplines related to habitability and astrobiology. Primary conclusions are as follows: A significant subset of conference attendees concluded that there is a realistic possibility that Mars hosts indigenous microbial life. A powerful theme that permeated the conference is that the key to the search for martian extant life lies in identifying and exploring refugia (‘‘oases’’), where conditions are either permanently or episodically significantly more hospitable than average. Based on our existing knowledge of Mars, conference participants highlighted four potential martian refugium (not listed in priority order): Caves, Deep Subsurface, Ices, and Salts. The conference group did not attempt to reach a consensus prioritization of these candidate environments, but instead felt that a defensible prioritization would require a future competitive process. Within the context of these candidate environments, we identified a variety of geological search strategies that could narrow the search space. Additionally, we summarized a number of measurement techniques that could be used to detect evidence of extant life (if present). Again, it was not within the scope of the conference to prioritize these measurement techniques—that is best left for the competitive process. We specifically note that the number and sensitivity of detection methods that could be implemented if samples were returned to Earth greatly exceed the methodologies that could be used at Mars. Finally, important lessons to guide extant life search processes can be derived both from experiments carried out in terrestrial laboratories and analog field sites and from theoretical modeling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning-enhanced framework for multiphysics joint inversion

Joint inversion has drawn considerable attention due to the availability of multiple geophysical data sets, ever-increasing computational resources, the development of advanced algorithms, and its ability to reduce inversion uncertainty. A key issue of joint inversion is to develop effective strategies to link different geophysical data in a unified mathematical framework, in which the information obtained from different models can complement each other. We have developed a deep learning-enhanced joint inversion framework to simultaneously reconstruct different physical models by fusing different types of geophysical data. Traditionally, structure similarity constraints are pursued by joint inversion algorithms using manually crafted formulations (e.g., cross gradient). The constraint is constructed by a deep neural network (DNN) during the learning process. The framework is designed to combine the DNN and a traditional independent inversion workflow and improve the joint inversion result iteratively. The network can be easily extended to incorporate multiphysics without structural changes. Numerical experiments on the joint inversion of 2D DC resistivity data and seismic traveltime are used to validate our method. In addition, this learning-based framework demonstrates excellent generalization abilities when tested on data sets using different geologic structures. It also can handle different sensing configurations and nonconforming discretization.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of time-dependent deformation of shale on the integrity of a geological nuclear waste repository

Safety assessment of geological nuclear waste repositories is essential for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive waste. The long-term integrity of the host rock as well as the engineered barrier system (e.g., bentonite buffer) surrounding nuclear waste canisters is of particular importance as decay heat from nuclear waste canisters, which will last over thousands of years, significantly disturbs the thermo-hydromechanical (THM) state of the repository. In this study, THM coupled simulations were carried out to investigate the effect of time-dependent deformation (i.e., creep) of shale on the long-term integrity of a generic subsurface nuclear waste repository. The Norton-Bailey creep model, which is also known as the Lemaitre-Menzel-Schreiner model, was employed to simulate the power-law type creep that is observed in shales. The TOUGH-FLAC simulator was employed for the THM coupled modeling of the repository. The objective of this study is to assess the effect of creep in different shales (i.e., high creep shale vs. low creep shale) on long-term stress and permeability changes in the repository. Results show potential advantages of constructing repositories in the high creep shale, as deviatoric stress levels in the formation decreased to zero in 100 years since the emplacement of nuclear waste canisters and the permeability also decreased to the undamaged, intrinsic levels in 10,000 years. Also, mean effective stress levels in the bentonite buffer increased by 100% in the high creep shale case relative to the low creep shale case at 10,000 years due to creep-induced contraction of the nuclear waste disposal tunnel. However, in earlier periods (e.g., 1000 years), the stress levels in the bentonite buffer were twice smaller in the high creep shale case than in the low creep shale case, which shows a tradeoff between the intermediate- (~1000 years) and long-term (>10,000 years) compaction levels in the bentonite buffer depending on the creep characteristics of the host shale.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Techniques for Vegetation Removal from UAV-Based Photogrammetric DSM near WIPP Land Withdrawal Act Boundary, NM

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is located within New Mexico's karst landscape and is the United States' only deep geologic radioactive waste repository which isolates transuranic waste from defense activities underground in a bedded salt formation. Characteristic karst topography in this region is made up of material (such as limestone) that can be dissolved by water over a long period of time, and includes features such as springs, surface streams, sinking streams, caves, and sinkholes. Karst features can potentially impact the integrity of the waste repository in the future and compromise WIPP's performance, particularly when coupled with incompatible land-use activities within the Land Withdrawal Act (LWA) boundary as well as increased water withdrawals outside the LWA. In order to better capture the ground surface topography to support hydrology modeling efforts, the U.S. DOE has enlisted FIU to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). In a previous field study, a high-resolution digital surface model (DSM) of an adjacent representative site, Basin 6, was developed by photogrammetry using aerial images captured with unmanned aerial vehicles. The DSM generated was based on point clouds representing the entire landscapes, including points of terrain, vegetation and infrastructure. These above-ground features need to be removed to create a DSM/DEM with good representation of the bare ground. In recent years, many techniques including both pre- and post-processing of DSMs, were developed for vegetation removal with varied success. This research focuses on applying and comparing various vegetation removal methods using point clouds generated of the Basin 6 pilot study area. The 3D RGB-based point cloud classification using Python scripts was a modification of the procedure by Themistocleous (2019). The method using Liblas classifies the point cloud three-dimensionally, whereas the method by Themistocleous (2019) is two-dimensional. The preliminary result of the method using Liblas, however, still had a large amount of vegetation remaining compared to the Pix4D Machine Learning method. The vegetation layer remains highly visible in the DEMs processed using the vegetation indices as opposed to the Pix4D Machine Learning method, which produces a DEM where mostly bare ground is seen. Further modifications to the input parameters are required to improve the vegetation vs. bare ground classification using this approach. The next step will be to improve the method using Liblas and to also test other vegetation removal methods found in the literature review to compare them against the two described here.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dating submarine landslides using the transient response of gas hydrate stability

Abstract Submarine landslides are prevalent on the modern-day seafloor, yet an elusive problem is constraining the timing of past slope failure. We present a novel age-dating technique based on perturbations to underlying gas hydrate stability caused by slide-impacted seafloor changes. Using three-dimensional (3-D) seismic data, we mapped an irregular bottom simulating reflection (BSR) underneath a submarine landslide in the Orca Basin, Gulf of Mexico. The irregular BSR mimics the pre-slide seafloor geometry rather than the modern bathymetry. Therefore, we suggest that the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) is still adjusting to the post-slide sediment temperature. We applied transient conductive heat-flow modeling to constrain the response of the GHSZ to the slope failure, which yielded a most likely age of ca. 8 ka, demonstrating that gas hydrate can respond to landslides even on multimillennial time scales. We further provide a generalized analytical solution that can be used to remotely date submarine slides in the absence of traditional dating techniques.

Geology↗