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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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It is the purpose of this paper to analyze the structure of the cost estimating relationships that commercial cost models use and to test whether they are viable cost functions.
A scaling analysis based upon dimensional invariance is used in conjunction with centrifuge experiments to estimate cratering efficiency as a function of impact velocity for kilometer-sized impactors. Complementing earlier, conventional small-scale impact experiments, centrifuge experiments were performed to substantiate these scaling laws in a scaled-size regime of interest. This technique provided empirical scaling laws used to estimate crater size for large bodies impacting the earth. From these scaling laws a 10-km-diameter body impacting at 25 km/s would be expected to produce a 66-km-diameter crater and to inject approximately 12 times its mass into the atmosphere.
Purpose: Localizer projection radiographs acquired prior to CT scans are used to estimate patient size, affecting the function of Automatic Tube Current Modulation (ATCM) and hence CTDIvol and SSDE. Due to geometric effects, the projected patient size varies with scanner table height and with the orientation of the localizer (AP versus PA). This study sought to determine if patient size estimates made from localizer scans is affected by variations in fat distribution, specifically when the widest part of the patient is not at the geometric center of the patient. Methods: Lipid gel bolus material was wrapped around an anthropomorphic phantom to simulate two different body mass distributions. The first represented a patient with fairly rigid fat and had a generally oval shape. The second was bell-shaped, representing corpulent patients more susceptible to gravity’s lustful tug. Each phantom configuration was imaged using an AP localizer and then a PA localizer. This was repeated at various scanner table heights. The width of the phantom was measured from the localizer and diagnostic images using in-house software. Results: 1) The projected phantom width varied up to 39% as table height changed.2) At some table heights, the width of the phantom, designed to represent larger patients, exceeded the localizer field of view, resulting in an underestimation of the phantom width.3) The oval-shaped phantom approached a normalized phantom width of 1 at a table height several centimeters lower (AP localizer) or higher (PA localizer) than did the bell-shaped phantom. Conclusion: Accurate estimation of patient size from localizer scans is dependent on patient positioning with respect to scanner isocenter and is limited in large patients. Further, patient size is more accurately measured on projection images if the widest part of the patient, rather than the geometric center of the patient, is positioned at scanner isocenter.
In a normal healthy population, we desired to determine the most age-dependent conventional and advanced ECG parameters. We hypothesized that changes in several ECG parameters might correlate with age and together reliably characterize the functional age of the heart. Methods: An initial study population of 313 apparently healthy subjects was ultimately reduced to 148 subjects (74 men, 84 women, in the range from 10 to 75 years of age) after exclusion criteria. In all subjects, ECG recordings (resting 5-minute 12-lead high frequency ECG) were evaluated via custom software programs to calculate up to 85 different conventional and advanced ECG parameters including beat-to-beat QT and RR variability, waveform complexity, and signal-averaged, high-frequency and spatial/spatiotemporal ECG parameters. The prediction of functional age was evaluated by multiple linear regression analysis using the best 5 univariate predictors. Results: Ignoring what were ultimately small differences between males and females, the functional age was found to be predicted (R2= 0.69, P < 0.001) from a linear combination of 5 independent variables: QRS elevation in the frontal plane (p<0.001), a new repolarization parameter QTcorr (p<0.001), mean high frequency QRS amplitude (p=0.009), the variability parameter % VLF of RRV (p=0.021) and the P-wave width (p=0.10). Here, QTcorr represents the correlation between the calculated QT and the measured QT signal. Conclusions: In apparently healthy subjects with normal conventional ECGs, functional cardiac age can be estimated by multiple linear regression analysis of mostly advanced ECG results. Because some parameters in the regression formula, such as QTcorr, high frequency QRS amplitude and P-wave width also change with disease in the same direction as with increased age, increased functional age of the heart may reflect subtle age-related pathologies in cardiac electrical function that are usually hidden on conventional ECG.
Dynamic model verification is the process whereby an analytical model of a dynamic system is compared with experimental data, and then qualified for future use in predicting system response in a different dynamic environment. There are various ways to conduct model verification. The approach adopted in MOVER II employs Bayesian statistical parameter estimation. Unlike curve fitting whose objective is to minimize the difference between some analytical function and a given quantity of test data (or curve), Bayesian estimation attempts also to minimize the difference between the parameter values of that function (the model) and their initial estimates, in a least squares sense. The objectives of dynamic model verification, therefore, are to produce a model which: (1) is in agreement with test data, (2) will assist in the interpretation of test data, (3) can be used to help verify a design, (4) will reliably predict performance, and (5) in the case of space structures, facilitate dynamic control.
An estimate of the probability density function of a random vector is obtained by maximizing the mutual information between the input and the output of a feedforward network of sigmoidal units with respect to the input weights. Classification problems can be solved by selecting the class associated with the maximal estimated density. Newton's s method, applied to an estimated density, yields a recursive maximum likelihood estimator, consisting of a single internal layer of sigmoids, for a random variable or a random sequence. Applications to the diamond classification and to the prediction of a sun-spot process are demonstrated.
The heat conductivity ({lambda}) and the thermal diffusivity (a) of reacting glass batch, or melter feed, control the heat flux into and within the cold cap, a layer of reacting material floating on the pool of molten glass in an all-electric continuous waste glass melter. After previously estimating {lambda} of melter feed at temperatures up to 680 deg C, we focus in this work on the {lambda}(T) function at T > 680 deg C, at which the feed material becomes foamy. We used a customized experimental setup consisting of a large cylindrical crucible with an assembly of thermocouples, which monitored the evolution of the temperature field while the crucible with feed was heated at a constant rate from room temperature up to 1100°C. Approximating measured temperature profiles by polynomial functions, we used the heat transfer equation to estimate the {lambda}(T) approximation function, which we subsequently optimized using the finite-volume method combined with least-squares analysis. The heat conductivity increased as the temperature increased until the feed began to expand into foam, at which point the conductivity dropped. It began to increase again as the foam turned into a bubble-free glass melt. We discuss the implications of this behavior for the mathematical modeling of the cold cap.
Purpose: To evaluate a calibration method using the depth-dose data of an electron beam for MRI-based polymer gel dosimetry. Methods: MAGAT was manufactured in-house to fill two 400mL-cylindrical phantoms and nine 22mL-glass vials. Phantom-A was irradiated along the cylinder axis with a 9MeV electron beam of 6 cm x 6 cm field size (FS). Phantom-B was irradiated with a 6MV photon beam of 3 cm x 3 cm FS by a 360-degree arc technique. Eight vials were irradiated in a water-bath to various doses with a 20 cm x 20 cm FS 6MV photon beam. All irradiated phantoms and one un-irradiated vial were scanned with a 3T MRI scanner to obtain the spin-spin relaxation rate (R2) distributions. By comparing the measured R2-to-depth data with the known depth-dose data for Phantom-A, R2-to-dose calibration data were obtained (e-beam method). Another calibration data were obtained from the 9 vials data (9-vial method). We tested two regression equations, i.e., third-order polynomial and tangent functions, and two dose normalization methods, i.e., one-point and two-point methods. Then, these two calibration methods were used to obtain the 3D dose distribution of Phantom-B and evaluated by comparing the measured data with the dose distribution from a treatment planning system. The comparison was made with gamma passing rate (2%/2mm criteria). Results: We did not observe a clear advantage of the e-beam method over the 9-vial method for the 3D dose comparison with the test case. Nevertheless, we found that the e-beam method required a smaller dose scaling for the dose comparison. Furthermore, the tangent function showed better data fitting than the polynomial function with smaller uncertainty of the estimated coefficients. Conclusions: Considering the overall superior performance, we recommend the e-beam method with the tangent function as the regression equation and one-point dose normalization for the MRI-based polymer gel dosimetry.
Most methods of system identification of large flexible structures by far are based on the lumped parameter approach. Because of the considerable computational burden due to the large number of unknown parameters, distributed parameter approach, which greatly decreases the number of unknowns, has being investigated. In this paper a distributed parameter model for the estimation of modal characteristics of NASA Mini-Mast truss has been formulated. Both Bernoulli-Euler beam and Timoshenko beam equations are used to characterize the lateral bending vibrations of the truss. The measurement of the lateral displacement at the tip of the truss is provided to the maximum likelihood estimator. Closed-form solutions of the partial differential equations and closed-form expressions of the sensitivity functions are derived so that the estimation algorithm is highly efficient. The resulting estimates from test data by using Timoshenko beam model are found to be comparable to those derived from finite element analysis.
Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.
The problem of estimating the overall point-spread function (PSF) of multispectral scanner systems was studied using real scene data and known geometric structures in the scene. A direct solution to an approximate form of the PSF was made along with a method using the derivative of an estimated edge response. Both results agreed closely. The TM scanner system specifications are given in line-spread function width and these values are listed with the experimental results in terms of meters. The estimated values are very reasonable, considering the number of factors which could be influencing the result. The atmosphere will have a blurring effect on the overall PSF as well as on cubic convolution resampling effects and possible electronic effects not accounted for in the specification. Also, the specific definition of the LSF specification is not known nor is the actual altitude at the instant the data were acquired. Thus the nominal overall PSF half-amplitude width of 39 m is reasonable; however, a greater sample of scene objects should be evaluated to furthur verify this result.
Unveiling the relationship between phylogeny and function of the microbiome is crucial to determine its contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, while there is a considerable amount of information on microbial phylogenetic diversity, our understanding of its relationship to functional diversity is still scarce. Here we predicted the total microbiome functions of bacteria and fungi on Earth using the total known functions from level 3 of KEGG Orthology by modelling the increase of functions with increasing diversity of bacteria or fungi. For bacteria and fungi, the unsaturated model described the data significantly better (for both P?<2.2e-16), suggesting the presence of two types of functions. Widespread functions ubiquitous in every living organism that make up two thirds of our current knowledge of microbiome functions are separated from rare functions from specialised enzymes present in only a few species. Given previous estimates on species richness, we predicted a global total of 35.5 million functions in bacteria and 3.2 million in fungi; of which only 0.02% and 0.14% are known today. Our approach highlights the necessity of novel and more sophisticated methods to unveil the entirety of rare functions to fully understand the involvement of the microbiome in ecosystem functioning. SIGNIFICANCE: The functionality of and within a microbial community is generally inferred based on the taxonomic annotation of the organism. However, our understanding of functional diversity and how it relates to taxonomy is still limited. Here we predict the total microbiome functionality in bacteria and fungi on Earth using known and annotated protein-coding sequences in species accumulation curves. Our estimates reveal that the majority of functionality (>99%) could be assigned to yet unknown and rare functions, highlighting that our current knowledge is incomplete and functional inference is thus lackluster.
In the context of the cluster model of epitaxial graphene, the condition for a stepwise change in the charge of carbon atoms under the action of graphene–substrate electron–phonon interaction and an external electric field is derived. Such charge transfer brings about corresponding steps of the static conductivity and work function of epitaxial graphene. Numerical estimates for the case of weak coupling of quasi-free graphene with metal and semiconductor substrates are given.
Photocatalytic materials are being used to purify air, to kill microbes, and to keep surfaces clean. A wide variety of materials are being developed, many of which have different abilities to absorb various wavelengths of light. Material variability, combined with both spectral illumination intensity and spectral distribution variability, will produce a wide range of performance results. The proposed technology estimates photocatalytic active radiation (PcAR), a unit of radiation that normalizes the amount of light based on its spectral distribution and on the ability of the material to absorb that radiation. Photocatalytic reactions depend upon the number of electron-hole pairs generated at the photocatalytic surface. The number of electron-hole pairs produced depends on the number of photons per unit area per second striking the surface that can be absorbed and whose energy exceeds the bandgap of the photocatalytic material. A convenient parameter to describe the number of useful photons is the number of moles of photons striking the surface per unit area per second. The unit of micro-einsteins (or micromoles) of photons per m2 per sec is commonly used for photochemical and photoelectric-like phenomena. This type of parameter is used in photochemistry, such as in the conversion of light energy for photosynthesis. Photosynthetic response correlates with the number of photons rather than by energy because, in this photochemical process, each molecule is activated by the absorption of one photon. In photosynthesis, the number of photons absorbed in the 400 700 nm spectral range is estimated and is referred to as photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). PAR is defined in terms of the photosynthetic photon flux density measured in micro-einsteins of photons per m2 per sec. PcAR is an equivalent, similarly modeled parameter that has been defined for the photocatalytic processes. Two methods to measure the PcAR level are being proposed. In the first method, a calibrated spectrometer with a cosine receptor is used to measure the spectral irradiance. This measurement, in conjunction with the photocatalytic response as a function of wavelength, is used to estimate the PcAR. The photocatalytic response function is determined by measuring photocatalytic reactivity as a function of wavelength. In the second method, simple shaped photocatalytic response functions can be simulated with a broad-band detector with a cosine receptor appropriately filtered to represent the spectral response of the photocatalytic material. This second method can be less expensive than using a calibrated spectrometer.
A Green's function method for obtaining an estimate of the ocean circulation using both a general circulation model and altimetric data is demonstrated. The fundamental assumption is that the model is so accurate that the differences between the observations and the model-estimated fields obey a linear dynamics. In the present case, the calculations are demonstrated for model/data differences occurring on very a large scale, where the linearization hypothesis appears to be a good one. A semi-automatic linearization of the Bryan/Cox general circulation model is effected by calculating the model response to a series of isolated (in both space and time) geostrophically balanced vortices. These resulting impulse responses or 'Green's functions' then provide the kernels for a linear inverse problem. The method is first demonstrated with a set of 'twin experiments' and then with real data spanning the entire model domain and a year of TOPEX/POSEIDON observations. Our present focus is on the estimate of the time-mean and annual cycle of the model. Residuals of the inversion/assimilation are largest in the western tropical Pacific, and are believed to reflect primarily geoid error. Vertical resolution diminishes with depth with 1 year of data. The model mean is modified such that the subtropical gyre is weakened by about 1 cm/s and the center of the gyre shifted southward by about 10 deg. Corrections to the flow field at the annual cycle suggest that the dynamical response is weak except in the tropics, where the estimated seasonal cycle of the low-latitude current system is of the order of 2 cm/s. The underestimation of observed fluctuations can be related to the inversion on the coarse spatial grid, which does not permit full resolution of the tropical physics. The methodology is easily extended to higher resolution, to use of spatially correlated errors, and to other data types.
We present high-resolution adaptive optics (AO) corrected images of the silhouette disk Orion 218-354 taken with Magellan AO (MagAO) and its visible light camera, VisAO, in simultaneous differential imaging mode at Hα. This is the first image of a circumstellar disk seen in silhouette with AO and is among the first visible light AO results in the literature. We derive the disk extent, geometry, intensity, and extinction profiles and find, in contrast with previous work, that the disk is likely optically thin at Hα. Our data provide an estimate of the column density in primitive, ISM-like grains as a function of radius in the disk. We estimate that only ∼10% of the total submillimeter derived disk mass lies in primitive, unprocessed grains. We use our data, Monte Carlo radiative transfer modeling, and previous results from the literature to make the first self-consistent multiwavelength model of Orion 218-354. We find that we are able to reproduce the 1-1000 μm spectral energy distribution with a ∼2-540 AU disk of the size, geometry, small versus large grain proportion, and radial mass profile indicated by our data. This inner radius is a factor of ∼15 larger than the sublimation radius of the disk, suggesting that it is likely cleared in the very interior.
The accessory mineral zircon is widely used to constrain the timing of igneous processes such as magma crystallisation or eruption. However, zircon U-Pb ages record zircon crystallisation, which is not an instantaneous process. Zircon saturation calculations link zircon crystallisation, temperature, and melt fraction, allowing for the estimation of zircon crystallisation distributions as a function of time or temperature. Such distributions provide valuable prior information, enabling Bayesian estimates of magma eruption time and allowing for comparison of the relative accuracy of common weighted-mean and youngest-zircon age interpretations with synthetic datasets. We find that both traditional interpretations carry a risk of underestimating the uncertainty in eruption age; a low mean square of weighted deviates (MSWD) does not guarantee the accuracy of weighted-mean interpretations. In the absence of independent confirmation that crystallisation timescale is short relative to analytical uncertainties, a Bayesian approach frequently provides the most accurate results and is least likely to underestimate uncertainty. Finally, since U-Pb zircon studies now routinely resolve geological age dispersion due to increasing analytical precision, such considerations are increasingly critical to future progress in resolving rates and dates of Earth processes.
The investigation of specific interactions among biological molecules must take into consideration the stereochemistry of the structures. Thus, models of the molecules are essential for describing the spatial organization of potentially interacting groups, and estimations of conformation are required for a description of spatial organization. Both the function of visualizing molecules, and that of estimating conformation through calculations of energy, are part of the molecular modeling system described in the present paper. The potential uses of the system in investigating some aspects of the origin of life rest on the assumption that translation of conformation from genetic elements to catalytic elements would have been required for the development of the first replicating systems subject to the process of biological evolution.