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The Spitzer c2d survey of large, nearby, interstellar clouds. XII. The Perseus YSO population as observed with IRAC and MIPS

The Spitzer Space Telescope mapped the Perseus molecular cloud complex with the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) and the Multi-Band Imaging Photometer for Spitzer (MIPS) as part of the c2d Spitzer Legacy project. This paper combines the observations from both instruments giving an overview of low-mass star formation across Perseus from 3.6 to 70 μm. We provide an updated list of young stellar objects (YSOs) with new classifications and source fluxes from previous works, identifying 369 YSOs in Perseus with the Spitzer data set. By synthesizing the IRAC and MIPS maps of Perseus and building on the work of previous papers in this series, we present a current census of star formation across the cloud and within smaller regions. Sixty-seven percent of the YSOs are associated with the young clusters NGC 1333 and IC 348. The majority of the star formation activity in Perseus occurs in the regions around the clusters to the eastern and western ends of the cloud complex. The middle of the cloud is nearly empty of YSOs despite containing regions of high visual extinction. The western half of Perseus contains three-quarters of the total number of embedded YSOs (Class 0+I and Flat spectral energy distribution sources) in the cloud and nearly as many embedded YSOs as Class II and III sources. Class II and III objects greatly outnumber Class 0+I objects in eastern Perseus and IC 348. These results are consistent with previous age estimates for the clusters. Across the cloud, 56% of YSOs and 91% of the Class 0+I and Flat sources are in areas where A v ≪ 5 mag, indicating a possible extinction threshold for star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AN H{alpha} NUCLEAR SPIRAL STRUCTURE IN THE E0 ACTIVE GALAXY Arp 102B

We report the discovery of a two-armed mini-spiral structure within the inner kiloparsec of the E0 LINER/Seyfert 1 galaxy Arp 102B. The arms are observed in H{alpha} emission and located east and west of the nucleus, extending up to {approx}1 kpc from it. We use narrow-band imaging from the Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys, in combination with archival Very Large Array radio images at 3.6 and 6 cm to investigate the origin of the nuclear spiral. From the H{alpha} luminosity of the spiral, we obtain an ionized gas mass of the order of 10{sup 6} solar masses. One possibility is that the nuclear spiral represents a gas inflow triggered by a recent accretion event which has replenished the accretion disk, giving rise to the double-peaked emission-line profiles characteristic of Arp 102B. However, the radio images show a one-sided curved jet which correlates with the eastern spiral arm observed in the H{alpha} image. A published milliarcsecond radio image also shows a one-sided structure at position angle {approx}40{sup 0}, approximately aligned with the inner part of the eastern spiral arm. The absence of a radio counterpart to the western spiral arm is tentatively interpreted as indicating that the jet is relativistic, with an estimated speed of 0.45c. Estimates of the jet kinetic energy and the ionizing luminosity of the active nucleus indicate that both are capable of ionizing the gas along the spiral arms. We conclude that, although the gas in the nuclear region may have originated in an accretion event, the mini spiral is most likely the result of a jet-cloud interaction rather than an inflowing stream.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

FAR-ULTRAVIOLET SPECTRAL IMAGES OF THE ORION-ERIDANUS SUPERBUBBLE REGION

The far-ultraviolet (FUV) continuum and spectral images of C IV and H{sub 2} emission lines for the region of the Orion-Eridanus Superbubble are hereby presented and compared with maps obtained in other wavelengths. While the region shows complex structures, consisting of hot gases and cold dust, a close examination reveals that the FUV emission in this region can be understood reasonably as the result of their interactions. We confirm the origin of most diffuse FUV continuum to be starlight scattered by dust, but we also find that ionized gas contributes 50%-70% of the total FUV intensity in the regions of H{alpha} arcs. We note the bright diffuse FUV continuum in the eastern part of the northern region, which has a lot of dust, and attribute it to a greater abundance of bright, early-type stars in this region than in the west, as the amount of dust itself does not seem to be much different across 'arc A', which separates the two regions. In addition, two P Cygni-type stars are identified in this eastern region and their peculiar spectral profiles around the C IV emission line are manifested in the scattered diffuse spectrum. Besides this, the C IV emission is generally enhanced at the boundaries of the hot X-ray cavities where thin dust regions are located, confirming the thermal interface nature of the origin of this cooling emission line. The morphology of the H{sub 2} emission shows a general correlation with dust extinction features but its intensity peaks are located in thin dust areas, rather than the peak dust regions. Furthermore, H{sub 2} emission is weak in the arc A region even though the arc passes through the center of the dust-rich area. Hence, the H{sub 2} emission and dust features, together with those of X-ray and ion line emissions, show the stratified structure of arc A quite well, again confirming its thermal interface nature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

MOLECULAR ENVIRONMENT AND AN X-RAY SPECTROSCOPY OF SUPERNOVA REMNANT KESTEVEN 78

We investigate the molecular environment of the Galactic supernova remnant (SNR) Kesteven 78 and perform an XMM-Newton X-ray spectroscopic study for the northeastern edge of the remnant. SNR Kes 78 is found to interact with the molecular clouds (MCs) at a systemic local standard of rest velocity of 81 km s{sup -1}. At around this velocity, the SNR appears to contact a long molecular strip in the northeast and a large cloud in the east as revealed in the {sup 13}CO line, which may be responsible for the radio brightness peak and the OH maser, respectively. The {sup 12}CO-line bright region morphologically matches the eastern bright radio shell in general, and the SNR is consistent in extent with a CO cavity. Broadened {sup 12}CO-line profiles discerned in the eastern maser region and the western clumpy molecular arc and the elevated {sup 12}CO (J = 2-1)/(J = 1-0) ratios along the SNR boundary may be signatures of shock perturbation in the molecular gas. The SNR-MC association places the SNR at a kinematic distance of 4.8 kpc. The X-rays arising from the northeastern radio shell are emitted by underionized hot ({approx}1.5 keV), low-density ({approx}0.1 cm{sup -3}) plasma with solar abundance, and the plasma may be of intercloud origin. The age of the remnant is inferred to be about 6 kyr. The size of the molecular cavity in Kes 78 implies an initial mass around 22 M{sub Sun} for the progenitor.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

POST-STARBURST TIDAL TAILS IN THE ARCHETYPICAL ULTRA LUMINOUS INFRARED GALAXY Arp 220

We present our new deep optical imaging and long-slit spectroscopy for Arp 220, the archetypical ultra luminous infrared galaxy in the local universe. Our sensitive H{alpha} imaging has newly revealed large-scale H{alpha} absorption, i.e., post-starburst regions in this merger. One is found in the eastern superbubble and the other is in the two tidal tails that are clearly revealed in our deep optical imaging. The size of the H{alpha} absorption region in the eastern bubble is 5 kpc Multiplication-Sign 7.5 kpc, and the observed H{alpha} equivalent widths are {approx}2 Angstrom-Sign {+-} 0.2 Angstrom-Sign . The sizes of the northern and southern H{alpha}-absorption tidal tails are {approx}5 kpc Multiplication-Sign 10 kpc and {approx}6 kpc Multiplication-Sign 20 kpc, respectively. The observed H{alpha} equivalent widths range from 4 Angstrom-Sign to 7 Angstrom-Sign . In order to explain the presence of the two post-starburst tails, we suggest a possible multiple-merger scenario for Arp 220 in which two post-starburst disk-like structures merged into one, causing the two tails. This favors Arp 220 as a multiple merging system composed of four or more galaxies arising from a compact group of galaxies. Taking our new results into account, we discuss a star formation history in the last 1 Gyr in Arp 220.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

VERY LARGE ARRAY OH ZEEMAN OBSERVATIONS OF THE STAR-FORMING REGION S88B

We present observations of the Zeeman effect in OH thermal absorption main lines at 1665 and 1667 MHz taken with the Very Large Array toward the star-forming region S88B. The OH absorption profiles toward this source are complicated, and contain several blended components toward a number of positions. Almost all of the OH absorbing gas is located in the eastern parts of S88B, toward the compact continuum source S88B-2 and the eastern parts of the extended continuum source S88B-1. The ratio of 1665/1667 MHz OH line intensities indicates the gas is likely highly clumped, in agreement with other molecular emission line observations in the literature. S88-B appears to present a similar geometry to the well-known star-forming region M17, in that there is an edge-on eastward progression from ionized to molecular gas. The detected magnetic fields appear to mirror this eastward transition; we detected line-of-sight magnetic fields ranging from 90 to 400 {mu}G, with the lowest values of the field to the southwest of the S88B-1 continuum peak, and the highest values to its northeast. We used the detected fields to assess the importance of the magnetic field in S88B by a number of methods; we calculated the ratio of thermal to magnetic pressures, we calculated the critical field necessary to completely support the cloud against self-gravity and compared it to the observed field, and we calculated the ratio of mass to magnetic flux in terms of the critical value of this parameter. All these methods indicated that the magnetic field in S88B is dynamically significant, and should provide an important source of support against gravity. Moreover, the magnetic energy density is in approximate equipartition with the turbulent energy density, again pointing to the importance of the magnetic field in this region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE NEUTRAL INTERSTELLAR GAS TOWARD SNR W44: CANDIDATES FOR TARGET PROTONS IN HADRONIC {gamma}-RAY PRODUCTION IN A MIDDLE-AGED SUPERNOVA REMNANT

We present an analysis of the interstellar medium (ISM) toward the {gamma}-ray supernova remnant (SNR) W44. We used NANTEN2 {sup 12}CO(J = 2-1) and {sup 12}CO(J = 1-0) data and Arecibo H I data in order to identify the molecular and atomic gas in the SNR. We confirmed that the molecular gas is located in the SNR shell with a primary peak toward the eastern edge of the shell. We newly identified high-excitation molecular gas along the eastern shell of the SNR in addition to the high-excitation broad gas previously observed inside the shell; the line intensity ratio between the {sup 12}CO(J = 2-1) and {sup 12}CO(J = 1-0) transitions in these regions is greater than {approx}1.0, suggesting a kinetic temperature of 30 K or higher, which is most likely due to heating by shock interaction. By comparing the ISM with {gamma}-rays, we find that target protons of hadronic origin are dominated by molecular protons of average density around 200 cm{sup -3}, where the possible contribution of atomic protons is 10% or less. This average density is consistent with the recent discovery of the low-energy {gamma}-rays suppressed in 50 MeV-10 GeV as observed with AGILE and Fermi. The {gamma}-ray spectrum differs from place to place in the SNR, suggesting that the cosmic-ray (CR) proton spectrum significantly changes within the middle-aged SNR perhaps due to the energy-dependent escape of CR protons from the acceleration site. We finally derive a total CR proton energy of {approx}10{sup 49} erg, consistent with the SN origin of the majority of the CRs in the Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS OF DUSTY FILAMENTS IN HERCULES A: EVIDENCE FOR ENTRAINMENT

We present U-, V-, and I-band images of the host galaxy of Hercules A (3C 348) obtained with HST/WFC3/UVIS. We find a network of dusty filaments which are more complex and extended than seen in earlier Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations. The filaments are associated with a faint blue continuum light (possibly from young stars) and faint H{alpha} emission. It seems likely that the cold gas and dust has been stripped from a companion galaxy now seen as a secondary nucleus. There are dusty filaments aligned with the base of the jets on both eastern and western sides of the galaxy. The morphology of the filaments is different on the two sides-the western filaments are fairly straight, while the eastern filaments are mainly in two loop-like structures. We suggest that despite the difference in morphologies, both sets of filaments have been entrained in a slow-moving boundary layer outside the relativistic flow. As suggested by Fabian et al., magnetic fields in the filaments may stabilize them against disruption. We consider a speculative scenario to explain the relation between the radio source and the shock and cavities in the hot intracluster medium seen in the Chandra data. We suggest that the radio source originally ({approx}60 Myr ago) propagated along a position angle of {approx}35 Degree-Sign where it created the shock and cavities. The radio source axis changed to its current orientation ({approx}100 Degree-Sign ) possibly due to a supermassive black hole merger and began its current epoch of activity about 20 Myr ago.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

INTERFEROMETRIC OBSERVATIONS OF NITROGEN-BEARING MOLECULAR SPECIES IN THE STAR-FORMING CORE AHEAD OF HH 80N

We present Very Large Array NH{sub 3} and Plateau de Bure Interferometer NH{sub 2}D and HN{sup 13}C observations of the star-forming core ahead of HH 80N, the optically obscured northern counterpart of the Herbig-Haro objects HH 80/81. The main goal is to determine the kinematical information of the high density regions of the core (n ∼> 10{sup 5} cm{sup –3}) missed in previous works due to the depletion of the species observed (e.g., CS). The obtained maps show different kinematical signatures between the eastern and western parts of the core, suggesting a possible dynamical interaction of the core with the HH 80/81/80N outflow. The analysis of the position-velocity (P-V) plots of these species rules out a previous interpretation of having a molecular ring-like structure with a radius of 6 × 10{sup 4} AU traced by CS infalling onto a central protostar found in the core (IRS1). A high degree of NH{sub 3} deuteration, with respect to the central part of the core harboring IRS1, is derived in the eastern part, where a dust condensation (SE) is located. This deuteration trend of NH{sub 3} suggests that SE is in a pre-stellar evolutionary stage, earlier than that of IRS1. Since SE is the closest condensation to the HH 80N/81/80N outflow, in a case of outflow-core dynamical interaction, it should be perturbed first and be the most evolved condensation in the core. Therefore, the derived evolutionary sequence for SE and IRS1 makes outflow triggered star formation on IRS1 unlikely.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Molecular environment of the supernova remnant IC 443: Discovery of the molecular shells surrounding the remnant

We have carried out {sup 12}CO, {sup 13}CO, and C{sup 18}O observations toward the mixed morphology supernova remnant (SNR) IC 443. The observations cover a 1.°5 × 1.°5 area and allow us to investigate the overall molecular environment of the remnant. Some northern and northeastern partial shell structure of CO gas is around the remnant. One of the partial shells, about 5' extending beyond the northeastern border of the remnant's bright radio shell, seems to just confine the faint radio halo. On the other hand, some faint CO clumps can be discerned along the eastern boundary of the faint remnant's radio halo. Connecting the eastern CO clumps, the northeastern partial shell structures, and the northern CO partial shell, we can see that a half molecular ring structure appears to surround the remnant. The LSR velocity of the half-ring structure is in the range of –5 km s{sup –1} to –2 km s{sup –1}, which is consistent with that of the –4 km s{sup –1} molecular clouds. We suggest that the half-ring structure of the CO emission at V {sub LSR} ∼ –4 km s{sup –1} is associated with the SNR. The structures are possibly swept up by the stellar winds of SNR IC 443's massive progenitor. Based on the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer and the Two Micron All Sky Survey near-IR database, 62 young stellar object (YSO) candidates are selected within the radio halo of the remnant. These YSO candidates concentrated along the boundary of the remnant's bright radio shell are likely to be triggered by the stellar winds from the massive progenitor of SNR IC 443.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NuSTAR study of hard X-ray morphology and spectroscopy of PWN G21.5–0.9

We present NuSTAR high-energy X-ray observations of the pulsar wind nebula (PWN)/supernova remnant G21.5–0.9. We detect integrated emission from the nebula up to ∼40 keV, and resolve individual spatial features over a broad X-ray band for the first time. The morphology seen by NuSTAR agrees well with that seen by XMM-Newton and Chandra below 10 keV. At high energies, NuSTAR clearly detects non-thermal emission up to ∼20 keV that extends along the eastern and northern rim of the supernova shell. The broadband images clearly demonstrate that X-ray emission from the North Spur and Eastern Limb results predominantly from non-thermal processes. We detect a break in the spatially integrated X-ray spectrum at ∼9 keV that cannot be reproduced by current spectral energy distribution models, implying either a more complex electron injection spectrum or an additional process such as diffusion compared to what has been considered in previous work. We use spatially resolved maps to derive an energy-dependent cooling length scale, L(E)∝E{sup m} with m = –0.21 ± 0.01. We find this to be inconsistent with the model for the morphological evolution with energy described by Kennel and Coroniti. This value, along with the observed steepening in power-law index between radio and X-ray, can be quantitatively explained as an energy-loss spectral break in the simple scaling model of Reynolds, assuming particle advection dominates over diffusion. This interpretation requires a substantial departure from spherical magnetohydrodynamic, magnetic-flux-conserving outflow, most plausibly in the form of turbulent magnetic-field amplification.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

OGLE-ing the Magellanic system: stellar populations in the Magellanic Bridge

We report the discovery of a young stellar bridge that forms a continuous connection between the Magellanic Clouds. This finding is based on number density maps for stellar populations found in data gathered by OGLE-IV that fully cover over 270 deg{sup 2} of the sky in the Magellanic Bridge area. This is the most extensive optical survey of this region to date. We find that the young population is present mainly in the western half of the MBR, which, together with the newly discovered young population in the eastern Bridge, form a continuous stream of stars connecting both galaxies along δ ∼ –73.5 deg. The young population distribution is clumped, with one of the major densities close to the SMC and the other fairly isolated and located approximately mid-way between the Clouds, which we call the OGLE island. These overdensities are well matched by H I surface density contours, although the newly found young population in the eastern Bridge is offset by ∼2 deg north from the highest H I density contour. We observe a continuity of red clump stars between the Magellanic Clouds which represent an intermediate-age population. Red clump stars are present mainly in the southern and central parts of the Magellanic Bridge, below its gaseous part, and their presence is reflected by a strong deviation from the radial density profiles of the two galaxies. This may indicate either a tidal stream of stars, or that the stellar halos of the two galaxies overlap. On the other hand, we do not observe such an overlap within an intermediate-age population represented by the top of the red giant branch and the asymptotic giant branch stars. We also see only minor mixing of the old populations of the Clouds in the southern part of the Bridge, represented by the lowest part of the red giant branch.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

STORM IN A {sup T}EACUP{sup :} A RADIO-QUIET QUASAR WITH ≈10 kpc RADIO-EMITTING BUBBLES AND EXTREME GAS KINEMATICS

We present multi-frequency (1-8 GHz) Very Large Array data, combined with VIsible MultiObject Spectrograph integral field unit data and Hubble Space Telescope imaging, of a z = 0.085 radio-quiet type 2 quasar (with L {sub 1.4} {sub GHz} ≈ 5 × 10{sup 23} W Hz{sup –1} and L {sub AGN} ≈ 2 × 10{sup 45} erg s{sup –1}). Due to the morphology of its emission-line region, the target (J1430+1339) has been referred to as the ''Teacup'' active galactic nucleus (AGN) in the literature. We identify ''bubbles'' of radio emission that are extended ≈10-12 kpc to both the east and west of the nucleus. The edge of the brighter eastern bubble is co-spatial with an arc of luminous ionized gas. We also show that the ''Teacup'' AGN hosts a compact radio structure, located ≈0.8 kpc from the core position, at the base of the eastern bubble. This radio structure is co-spatial with an ionized outflow with an observed velocity of v = –740 km s{sup –1}. This is likely to correspond to a jet, or possibly a quasar wind, interacting with the interstellar medium at this position. The large-scale radio bubbles appear to be inflated by the central AGN, which indicates that the AGN can also interact with the gas on ≳ 10 kpc scales. Our study highlights that even when a quasar is formally ''radio-quiet'' the radio emission can be extremely effective for observing the effects of AGN feedback.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Scaling relations of the properties for CO resolved structures in nearby spiral galaxies

Complementing the observations on the eastern part of galaxy NGC 6946 presented in a previous work, we report high spatial resolution observations of giant molecular clouds (GMCs) in the nearby spiral galaxies M101 and NGC 628 obtained with the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy (CARMA). We observed CO(1→0) over regions with active star formation extending from 2 to 15 kpc galactocentric radius. Higher resolution observations of CO(2→1) toward the brightest regions observed in CO(1→0) have allowed us to resolve some of the largest GMCs. We have recovered short-spacing u–v components by using single dish observations from the Nobeyama 45 m and IRAM 30 m telescopes. Using the automated CPROPS algorithm we identified 112 CO complexes in the CO(1→0) maps and 144 GMCs in the CO(2→1) maps. Using a Bayesian fitting approach, we generate scaling relations for the sizes, line widths, and virial masses of the structures identified in this work. We do not find evidence for a tight power-law relation between size and line width, although the limited dynamic range in cloud size remains a clear issue in our analysis. Additionally, we use a Bayesian approach to analyze the scaling relation between the star formation and molecular gas surface density, known as the Kennicutt–Schmidt relation. When we perform our analysis using the boundaries of the structures identified by CPROPS, we find that the distribution of slopes are broadly distributed, mainly due to the limited dynamic range of our measured Σ{sub H{sub 2}}. In the case of the CO(1→0) complexes, the slope distributions are most consistent with super-linear relations, although sub-linear relations cannot be excluded for NGC 628 and NGC 6946. The GMCs from higher resolution CO(2→1) maps follow a similar behavior, but with larger scatter. As a complementary study, we use the Bayesian approach to analyze the Kennicutt–Schmidt relation for a uniform grid covering the areas surveyed, and with Σ{sub H{sub 2}} non-detections included in the analysis. The distributions of slopes is consistent with sub-linear relations for NGC 6946 and NGC 628, but is less constrained for M101. This picture is preserved after a 24 μm background component is subtracted from the Σ{sub SFR} measurements. On-arm regions tend to have higher star formation rates than inter-arm regions. Similar to what we find in our study of the eastern part of NGC 6946, in M101 we find regions where the star formation efficiency (SFE) shows marked peaks at specific galoctocentric radii. On the other hand, the distribution of SFE in NGC 628 is more contiguous. We hypothesize that differences in the distribution of SFE may be indicative of different processes driving the spiral structure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improving tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecasts with satellite measurements of sea surface salinity and calibrated machine learning

Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a mission known for large errors. One under-researched factor that affects TC intensification is salinity, which is important for density stratification in certain ocean regions and can affect the surface enthalpy flux under a strengthening hurricane. To investigate the impact and efficacy of using salinity information in state-of-the-art forecasting, we use a statistical model consisting of a variety of machine learning (ML) methods. For salinity data, we use satellite measurements of pre-storm sea surface salinity (SSS) as a proxy for the salinity stratification. We train and test the model on various ocean basins, including the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and western North Pacific. A calibrator is trained on top of the ML models to correct and enhance probability forecasts. The calibrator significantly improves probability forecasts relative to recent works. The ML model performance is improved with the addition of SSS in the Eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific, and the Caribbean subregion of the North Atlantic, and the overall model performance is better than previous studies. SSS decreases model skill for a model trained on the full Atlantic basin. In the Indian Ocean, SSS is also notably correlated with RI occurrence, but the TC samples are not sufficient to train ML models.

hurricane↗

EXTREME DUST DISKS IN Arp 220 AS REVEALED BY ALMA

We present new images of Arp 220 from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array with the highest combination of frequency (691 GHz) and resolution (0.''36 × 0.''20) ever obtained for this prototypical ultraluminous infrared galaxy. The western nucleus is revealed to contain warm (200 K) dust that is optically thick (τ{sub 434} {sub μm} = 5.3), while the eastern nucleus is cooler (80 K) and somewhat less opaque (τ{sub 434} {sub μm} = 1.7). We derive full width at half-maximum diameters of 76 × ≤ 70 pc and 123 × 79 pc for the western and eastern nucleus, respectively. The two nuclei combined account for (83{sub −38}{sup +65} (calibration) {sub −34}{sup +0} (systematic))% of the total infrared luminosity of Arp 220. The luminosity surface density of the western nucleus (log (σT{sup 4})=14.3±0.2{sub −0.7}{sup +0} in units of L {sub ☉} kpc{sup –2}) appears sufficiently high to require the presence of an active galactic nucleus (AGN) or a ''hot starburst'', although the exact value depends sensitively on the brightness distribution adopted for the source. Although the role of any central AGN remains open, the inferred mean gas column densities of (0.6-1.8) × 10{sup 25} cm{sup –2} mean that any AGN in Arp 220 must be Compton-thick.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Projections of wildfire risk and activities under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Wildfires are important ecosystem processes that have a significant impact on terrestrial vegetation, environment, and climate. This study investigates how future wildfire risk and activities could change under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to pre-industrial levels using a modified McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDIn) and the CLM4.5-BGC land surface model. Sixteen Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were employed to supply the variables of climate change under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios in the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The ensemble means from the FFDIn and results from the CLM4.5-BGC with multiple forcings show that the dry areas in the southwestern US, Brazilian Highlands, and Arabian islands are projected to face higher wildfire risk with larger burned areas and more carbon emissions under a warmer climate. The Congo Basin and part of the Amazon could have a lower wildfire risk with smaller burned areas and less carbon emissions. The absolute changes in the projected FFDIn are small, although large increases are observed in boreal areas, particularly in the winter and spring. Burned area and carbon emissions are projected to increase in general in the boreal area but decrease in northeastern Asia. Compared to the 1.5 °C scenario, the wildfire risk and burned area levels are projected to increase under the 2.0 °C scenario except in the western Amazon. However, fire carbon emissions are projected to decrease more in tropical areas under the 2.0 °C scenario. The different change directions in eastern North America and eastern China produced by the FFDIn and CLM4.5-BGC suggest the potential effect of non-meteorological elements on fire activities.

1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming↗

Climate models show colorado drying sooner and with greater certainty east of the continental divide

Many studies have examined the aridity of the Colorado River Basin and the possible impacts of climate change which could further strain already over-allocated water resources in the region. Fewer studies have examined the multiple Colorado Rocky Mountain headwater regions specifically. This is especially true of areas East of the Continental Divide, despite water originating there being critical to cities and agriculture in Eastern Colorado and further downstream. This paper explores and compares drying trends in the Eastern and Western Colorado Rocky Mountains using single-model initial-condition large ensembles from ten global climate models. The use of multiple models allows us to identify signals that are consistent across different physics parameterizations, model grids, and other model intricacies. The large ensembles also allow us to quantify the time of emergence of these climate change signals--that is, when did (or when will) the long term change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gasses exceed the internal variability of the climate system. Consistent with previous studies, we find evidence of drying on both sides of the Continental Divide. That drying is more pronounced, occurs sooner, and is more consistent across global climate models in the East, however, highlighting the region’s importance despite generally receiving less attention than the West.

Rugg, Allyson↗