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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

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DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Study of Data-Driven Area Inertia Estimation Approaches on WECC Power Systems

With the increasing integration of inverter-based resources into the power grid, there has been a notable reduction in system inertia, potentially compromising frequency stability. To assess the suitability of existing area inertia estimation techniques for real-world power systems, this paper presents a rigorous comparative analysis of system identification, measurement reconstruction, and electromechanical oscillation-based area inertia estimation methodologies, specifically applied to the large-scale and multi-area WECC 240-bus power system. Comprehensive results show that the system identification-based approach exhibits superior robustness and accuracy relative to its counterparts.

area inertia estimation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Online Output-Based Inertia Estimation of Modern Power Systems

The overall inertia of modern power systems is drastically impacted by the penetration level of converter-based resources (CBRs). The intermittent output of CBRs and their dependence on the weather conditions affirm the need for a realtime inertia estimation approach. This can help the transmission system operators(TSOs) to be continuously aware of the changes in the system inertia and to take suitable control actions. This paper is a step forward to a totally data-driven framework for power system inertia estimation using the available measurements from the phasor measurement units (PMUs). This inertia estimation is done based on the spectral analysis of the so-called Koopman linear operator. Koopman operator considers the relationship between the system's inertia and its dynamical response to slight disturbances in the load. Simulation results show that Koopman operator can approximate the system behavior in a reconstructed linear space hence inertia constant is estimated accurately.

data-driven↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probing-Based Inertia Estimation Method Using Hybrid Power Plants

With the displacement of synchronous generation by inverter-based resources (IBRs), power systems could face the challenge of reduced inertia since IBRs do not inherently contribute to system inertia. Therefore, there is rising interest in monitoring system inertia in real-time applications for situational awareness. In addition, there is a growing number of IBRs that provide fast frequency responses (FFR) in the form of synthetic inertia and P-f droop. It is desirable to quantify the contribution of these FFR controls as equivalent inertia. This paper proposes a probing-based inertia estimation method using a PV-battery hybrid power plant in the Kauai island power system. The method is validated under different operating conditions.

hybrid power plant↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model Predictive Fault-Tolerant Tracking Control for PDF Control Systems With Packet Losses

In this article, a fault-tolerant tracking control strategy is investigated for nonlinear probability density function (PDF) control systems with the actuator fault, uncertainties, unknown disturbance, and random packet losses. The control input signal dropout and measurement signal dropouts are described as the independent Bernoulli distribution. An adaptive fault diagnosis (FD) observer based on the Lyapunov function is given to simultaneously estimate the fault, disturbance, and state with packet losses. Furthermore, different from the traditional robust fault-tolerant control (FTC), a new active fault-tolerant tracking controller is designed based on the model predictive control framework, which has better adaptive fault-tolerant performance. Finally, the validity of the proposed FTC method has been proved by a simulation study of a papermaking process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enabling Cybersecurity, Situational Awareness and Resilience in Distribution Grids with High Penetration of Photovoltaics (CARE-PV) (Final Report)

Since legacy distribution systems have very limited visibility beyond the substation, high penetration of PV at the grid edge presents some unique operational challenges. One approach to address these challenges is to use information from advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and µPMUs. However, exploiting this information is impacted by a number of factors, including multi-timescale measurements, volume of data generated, communication network impairments (e.g., information loss and latency) and susceptibility to cyber-attacks. Therefore, one of the critical tasks involved in the management of a distribution grid is to develop complete situational awareness by integrating cyber-security mechanisms with state estimation strategies and leveraging this situational awareness to assure energy services at strategic locations while exploiting AMI/PV inverter/ µPMU data. This CARE-PV project addresses the fundamental challenges in situational awareness and resilience to cyber and physical vectors by exploiting the synergy between innovative modeling, estimation, data analytics, testing and validation using smart PV inverters designed at K-State and facilities at NREL. Specifically, the project involved the development, testing and validation of the following novel enabling technologies: (Thrust 1) Resilience to cyber vectors that impact data integrity was addressed via a two-level defense strategy that combines cyber intrusion detection using self-learning, cooperative smart PV inverters, and a novel moving target defense framework to combat data integrity attacks. (Thrust 2) Resilience to cyber-physical vectors that impact situational awareness by limiting data availability was addressed via novel centralized and decentralized, sparsity-based static and dynamic state estimation approaches that enhance observability even when the underlying system is unobservable. (Thrust 3) Leveraging a unique probabilistic sensitivity analysis approach accompanied by one-of-a-kind dominant influencer set computation, the vulnerability of critical infrastructure at strategic locations was evaluated so that proactive PV-based control strategies can be used to support operations under normal/outage scenarios. These CARE-PV project innovations were demonstrated on both small-scale IEEE and larger utility-scale testbeds (Thrust 4). Feedback from Industry Advisory Board members was used to formulate a commercialization pathway for a subset of CARE-PV technologies. These CARE-PV technologies will ultimately lead to reliable and secure, large-scale integration of renewable energy and mitigate the risk of energy disruption resulting from cyber incidents and other emerging threats within the energy environment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

LPG Component Leak Frequency Estimation

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is used in heating, cooking, and as a vehicle fuel (called autogas). A safety risk assessment may be needed to assess potential hazard scenarios and inform the regulations, codes, and standards that apply to LPG facilities, such as autogas refueling facilities. The frequency of unintended releases in an LPG system is an important aspect of a system quantitative risk assessment. This report documents estimation of leakage frequencies for individual components of LPG systems. These frequencies are described using uncertainty distributions obtained with Bayesian statistical methods, generic data, and LPG data which were publicly available. There was a lack of LPG data in the literature, so frequencies for most components were developed with generic data and should be used cautiously; without additional information about component leak frequencies in LPG systems, it is not known whether these generic frequencies may be conservative or non-conservative.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of obstacle modelling approaches for resource assessment and small wind turbine siting: case study in the northern Netherlands

Abstract. Growth in adoption of distributed wind turbines for energy generation is significantly impacted by challenges associated with siting and accurate estimation of the wind resource. Small turbines, at hub heights of 40 m or less, are greatly impacted by terrestrial obstacles such as built structures and vegetation that can cause complex wake effects. While some progress in high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models has increased the potential accuracy for modelling the impacts of obstacles on turbulent wind flow, these models are too computationally expensive for practical siting and resource assessment applications. To understand the efficacy of available models in situ, this study evaluates classic and commonly used methods alongside new state-of-the-art lower-order models derived from CFD simulations and machine learning approaches. This evaluation is conducted using a subset of an extensive original dataset of measurements from more than 300 operational wind turbines in the northern Netherlands. The results show that data-driven methods (e.g. machine learning and statistical modelling) are most effective at predicting production at real sites with an average error in annual energy production of 2.5 %. When sufficient data may not be available de novo to support these data-driven approaches, models derived from high-fidelity simulations show promise and reliably outperform classic methods. On average these models have 6.3 %–11.5 % error compared with 26 % for classic methods and 27 % baseline error for reanalysis data without obstacle correction. While more performant on average, these methods are also sensitive to the quality of obstacle descriptions and reanalysis inputs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Polycrystal thermo-elasticity revisited: theory and applications

The self-consistent (SC) theory is the most commonly used mean-field homogenization method to estimate the mechanical response behavior of polycrystals based on the knowledge of the properties and orientation distribution of constituent single-crystal grains. The original elastic SC method can be extended to thermo-elasticity by adding a stress-free strain to an elastic constitutive relation that expresses stress as a linear function of strain. With the addition of this independent term, the problem remains linear. Although the thermo-elastic self-consistent (TESC) model has important theoretical implications for the development of self-consistent homogenization of non-linear polycrystals, in this paper, we focus on TESC applications to actual thermo-elastic problems involving non-cubic (i.e. thermally anisotropic) materials. To achieve this aim, here we provide a thorough description of the TESC theory, which is followed by illustrative examples involving cooling of polycrystalline non-cubic metals. The TESC model allows studying the effect of crystallographic texture and single-crystal elastic and thermal anisotropy on the effective thermo-elastic response of the aggregate and on the internal stresses that develop at the local level.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computationally Robust Line Outage Detection and Identification in Three-Phase Networks

Detection and identification of individual phase outages remains a challenging problem due to insufficient metering in three-phase unbalanced power networks. This problem was tackled for the transmission systems in our previous work as documented in [1]. In this paper, this work is extended to detect phase outages in three-phase unbalanced systems using only the sparse estimation method. In addition, further improvements are introduced to increase the estimation accuracy for the virtual power injections at the terminal buses of disconnected lines, once the disconnected line is identified by sparse estimation methods. Simulation results are provided to experimentally validate the increased accuracy in detecting phase outages while decreasing the computational time by using the proposed approach.

Sparse Estimation, Line Outage, Phase Outage, LASS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validating Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (IBM) Tool (Final Report)

The project focused on validating the previously developed Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (GrSG IBM; LaGory et al. 2012, 2021). The objective was to transform this predictive, spatially and temporally explicit model into a portable resource to assist siting/resource managers in proactively assessing the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on the greater sage-grouse. Utilizing a bottom-up, individual-based approach, the GrSG IBM accounts for landscape context and species behavior, aiming to reduce uncertainty in estimating development impacts and support ecologically mindful land-based wind energy development. The validation effort covered approximately 6,540 km 2 near the Seven Mile Hill Wind Project in Wyoming. The GrSG IBM tool, built on the NetLogo platform (Tisue and Wilensky 2004), was executed over a 50-year period, with the analysis focusing on years following a 10-year initialization phase. Key results demonstrated the tool’s biological soundness across five key biological metrics: non-chick age class distribution (older than 10 weeks), adult sex ratio, life expectancy, population size, and overall population growth. For instance, the tool estimated that 58.6% of the non-chick population was reproductively immature, while the reference ranges from 51.4% to 57.8% (Patterson 1952, Rogers 1964). Experts confirmed the tool’s estimate was within a reasonable range for the species. The tool estimated average life expectancy of 1.43 years, while the reference ranges from 0.9 years to 1.1 years (Ammann 1957, Hamerstrom 1949). Experts also supported the model’s life-expectancy estimate as ecologically sound for the species in the study area. In terms of population change, the model estimated an annual shift between a 0.6% decline and a 1.0% increase over 50 years. While the reference suggests 2.9% annual decline in range-wide populations (Cortes et al. 2023), that includes many at-risk populations in South Dakota and Washington, for example. Our study area—in the northeastern part of Carbon County and western-edge of Albany County, Wyoming—is one of the remaining greater sage-grouse habitats supporting some of the most stable populations. Experts confirmed that the range of the annual population change spanning from a 0.6% decline to a 1.0% increase estimated by the tool was reasonable for our study area for this reason and confirmed that aligned with population estimates from existing studies on the greater sage-grouse and wind energy development in the study area (LeBeau et al. 2017a, Smith et al. 2024). Furthermore, the project showed that temporally explicit biological metrics generated by the GrSG IBM tool can complement the USGS’ Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET; Duchardt et al. 2021) by incorporating habitat restoration strategies into seasonal habitat suitability models to visualize population responses over time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

SPRUCE Root Production Assessed with Manual Minirhizotrons Resolved to Plant Functional Type, 2015-2021

This dataset contains raw root length and diameter for individual roots and estimated root population production measurements from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experimental site within the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota, USA. Measurements started at the beginning of whole ecosystem warming manipulations in 2015 through 2021 (2015-05-26 to 2021-09-01). Root morphology and estimated production were quantified throughout the peat profile with manual minirhizotrons deployed within SPRUCE plots. Images were processed using commercial software to quantify the length and diameter of individual roots. Roots were visually assigned to a plant functional type (PFT) of either (ericaceous) shrub, herb (sedges and Maianthemum trifolium), or tree (Larix laricina, Picea mariana) based on expert opinion. The biomass of individual roots was estimated using PFT-specific allometric equations (Iversen et al., 2018). Production per day was estimated as the length of new roots produced between imaging sessions, divided by the number of days between imaging sessions. These values were placed on a m2 aboveground area basis and scaled to a standard depth of 1m (roots are not evenly distributed with depth, do not interpret value as being on a m3 basis). Maximum and average (weighted by production length) depth of each PFT were also estimated within each minirhizotron tube. Annual production was interpolated as the average of four methods to scale these data (see Weber et al, 2026). Standing crop of roots was estimated for each tube as the maximum visible amount (both length and mass) of roots of that PFT for that year. These data expand the ability of researchers to accurately estimate the belowground dynamics of peatland vegetation, as well as the role that fine roots may play in impacting the fluxes of carbon within peatlands. This dataset contains three data files in comma-separate values (*.csv) format. This dataset contains one data file in comma-separate values (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: three data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma-separate values (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Singular value decomposition of adjoint flux distributions for Monte Carlo variance reduction

Monte Carlo (MC) shielding calculations often use weight windows (WWs) and biased sources formed from a deterministic estimate of the adjoint flux to improve the convergence rate of tallies. This requires a significant amount of computer memory, which can limit the memory available for high-resolution tally output. A new method is proposed for reducing these memory requirements by using singular value decomposition (SVD) in linear or logarithmic space to approximate the adjoint flux. This method’s performance is evaluated using the Shift and Denovo codes for streaming and diffusion base case problems, followed by problems using the Westinghouse AP1000 and the Joint European Torus. The log SVD reduced WW memory requirements by an order of magnitude in all cases without a significant performance penalty. Additionally, the linear SVD reduced biased source memory requirements by an order of magnitude, but further investigation is needed to account for observed limitations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ocelot: An Interactive, Efficient Distributed Compression-As-a-Service Platform With Optimized Data Compression Techniques

Large volumes of data generated by scientific simulations, genome sequencing, and other applications need to be moved among clusters for data collection/analysis. Data compression techniques have effectively reduced data storage and transfer costs. However, users' requirements on interactively controlling both data quality and compression ratios are non-trivial to fulfill. Here, we propose a novel Compression-as-a-Service (CaaS) platform called Ocelot with four important contributions: (1) It offers real-time visualization, interactive compression, and transfer of scientific datasets. (2) It incorporates new strategies for compressing diverse types of datasets more effectively than traditional methods. (3) It provides an effective method for estimating the compression ratio and execution time of compression tasks. (4) Experiments on multiple real-world datasets on geographically distributed computers show that Ocelot can significantly improve data transfer efficiency with a performance gain of more than 10x in computing clusters with relatively slow networks.

compression as a service (CaaS)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neural simulation-based inference approach for characterizing the Galactic Center γ-ray excess

The nature of the Fermi γ-ray Galactic Center Excess (GCE) has remained a persistent mystery for over a decade. Although the excess is broadly compatible with emission expected due to dark matter annihilation, an explanation in terms of a population of unresolved astrophysical point sources e.g., millisecond pulsars, remains viable. The effort to uncover the origin of the GCE is hampered in particular by an incomplete understanding of diffuse emission of Galactic origin. This can lead to spurious features that make it difficult to robustly differentiate smooth emission, as expected for a dark matter origin, from more “clumpy” emission expected from a population of relatively bright, unresolved point sources. Here, we use recent advancements in the field of simulation-based inference, in particular density estimation techniques using normalizing flows, in order to characterize the contribution of modeled components, including unresolved point source populations, to the GCE. Compared to traditional techniques based on the statistical distribution of photon counts, our machine learning-based method is able to utilize more of the information contained in a given model of the Galactic Center emission, and in particular can perform posterior parameter estimation while accounting for pixel-to-pixel spatial correlations in the γ-ray map. This makes the method demonstrably more resilient to certain forms of model misspecification. On application to Fermi data, the method generically attributes a smaller fraction of the GCE flux to unresolved point sources when compared to traditional approaches. We nevertheless infer such a contribution to make up a non-negligible fraction of the GCE across all analysis variations considered, with at least $38^{+9}_{-19}$% of the excess attributed to unresolved point sources in our baseline analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inverse bremsstrahlung absorption rate for super-Gaussian electron distribution functions including plasma screening

Here we provide analytic expressions for the effective Coulomb logarithm for inverse bremsstrahlung absorption which predict significant corrections to the Langdon effect and overall absorption rate compared to previous estimates. The calculation of the collisional absorption rate of laser energy in a plasma by the inverse bremsstrahlung mechanism usually makes the approximation of a constant Coulomb logarithm. We dispense with this approximation and instead take into account the velocity dependence of the Coulomb logarithm, leading to a more accurate expression for the absorption rate valid in both classical and quantum conditions. In contrast to previous work, the laser intensity enters into the Coulomb logarithm. In most laser-plasma interactions the electron distribution function is super-Gaussian [Langdon, Phys. Rev. Lett. 44, 575 (1980)], and we find the absorption rate under these conditions is increased by as much as ≈ 30% compared to previous estimates at low density. In many cases of interest the correction to Langdon's predicted reduction in absorption is large; for example at Z = 6 and Te = 400 eV the Langdon prediction for the absorption is in error by a factor of ≈ 2. However, we also account for the additional effect of plasma screening, which predicts a reduction in absorption by a similar amount (up to ≈ 30%). These two effects compete to determine the overall absorption, which may be increased or decreased, depending on the conditions. The corrections can be incorporated into radiation-hydrodynamics simulation codes by replacing the familiar Coulomb logarithm with an analytic expression which depends on the super-Gaussian order “M” and the screening length.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗