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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

Predictive Modeling for NASA Entry, Descent and Landing Missions

Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) Modeling and Simulation (MS) is an enabling capability for complex NASA entry missions such as MSL and Orion. MS is used in every mission phase to define mission concepts, select appropriate architectures, design EDL systems, quantify margin and risk, ensure correct system operation, and analyze data returned from the entry. In an environment where it is impossible to fully test EDL concepts on the ground prior to use, accurate MS capability is required to extrapolate ground test results to expected flight performance.

Modeling & Simulation↗

Spacesuit and Space Vehicle Comparative Ergonomic Evaluation

With the advent of the latest manned spaceflight objectives, a series of prototype launch and reentry spacesuit architectures were evaluated for eventual down selection by NASA based on the performance of a set of designated tasks. A consolidated approach was taken to testing, concurrently collecting suit mobility data, seat-suit-vehicle interface clearances and movement strategies within the volume of a Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle mockup. To achieve the objectives of the test, a requirement was set forth to maintain high mockup fidelity while using advanced motion capture technologies. These seemingly mutually exclusive goals were accommodated with the construction of an optically transparent and fully adjustable frame mockup. The mockup was constructed such that it could be dimensionally validated rapidly with the motion capture system. This paper will describe the method used to create a motion capture compatible space vehicle mockup, the consolidated approach for evaluating spacesuits in action, as well as the various methods for generating hardware requirements for an entire population from the resulting complex data set using a limited number of test subjects. Kinematics, hardware clearance, suited anthropometry, and subjective feedback data were recorded on fifteen unsuited and five suited subjects. Unsuited subjects were selected chiefly by anthropometry, in an attempt to find subjects who fell within predefined criteria for medium male, large male and small female subjects. The suited subjects were selected as a subset of the unsuited subjects and tested in both unpressurized and pressurized conditions. Since the prototype spacesuits were fabricated in a single size to accommodate an approximately average sized male, the findings from the suit testing were systematically extrapolated to the extremes of the population to anticipate likely problem areas. This extrapolation was achieved by first performing population analysis through a comparison of suited subjects performance to their unsuited performance and then applying the results to the entire range of population. The use of a transparent space vehicle mockup enabled the collection of large amounts of data during human-in-the-loop testing. Mobility data revealed that most of the tested spacesuits had sufficient ranges of motion for tasks to be performed successfully. A failed tasked by a suited subject most often stemmed from a combination of poor field of view while seated and poor dexterity of the gloves when pressurized or from suit/vehicle interface issues. Seat ingress/egress testing showed that problems with anthropometric accommodation does not exclusively occur with the largest or smallest subjects, but rather specific combinations of measurements that lead to narrower seat ingress/egress clearance.

England, Scott↗

Machine learning-based surrogate models and transfer learning for derivative free optimization of HT-PEM fuel cells

Widespread adoption of high-temperature polymer electrolyte membrane electrochemical systems, such as fuel cells (HT-PEMFCs), requires models and computational tools for accurate optimization and guiding new materials for enhancing performance and durability. In this contribution, knowledge-based modelling and data-driven modelling are combined using Few-Shot Learning and implementing an Automated Machine Learning framework for the generation of Machine Learning-based surrogate models. Applicability of the resulting model for derivative-free optimization is demonstrated. Additionally, a way of considering extrapolation in the optimization task is presented. Results show that although extrapolation is needed to achieve better solutions during optimization, it can be monitored and managed. As a result, tuning the electrode ionomer binder's properties, such as ionic conductivity, in the fuel cell represents a promising pathway for improving HT-PEMFC performance.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A multi-scale calibration approach for process-oriented aggregated building energy demand models

Long-term energy planning relies largely on projections of future energy demand and hourly load profiles. Aggregate building models are increasingly being utilized to characterize the sensitivity of current and future building stocks to changes in climate, population, and building technology on city-to-regional-to-national scales. Due to challenges in the availability of data, those analyses have been limited to projection of energy demand at a single scale, usually state or country, while long-term planning power system models and production cost models might operate at different spatial scales such as energy regions which are focused on ensuring adequate generation infrastructure. In this work, we propose and evaluate a novel method to calibrate an aggregate building energy demand model (PNNL’s BEND model) against the best available data at the spatial scale of balancing authorities. This approach extends previous work on aggregated building energy demand by facilitating analysis of building energy demand across scales, in particular policy and operational decision-making scales. We show that the bias-corrected model estimates building electric loads reasonably well compared with estimates from a statistical model, but has the additional feature of flexibility across spatial scales. While the calibration approach is presently U.S.-centric and associated with U.S. energy regions, it can be extrapolated to other worldwide regions with similar scale challenges between policy and operational implementation decision making. We discuss the significant challenges involved in formulating and calibrating a complex physical model based on simulations of roughly 100,000 individual buildings against available aggregate regional electric load data and highlight areas for potential future work and improved data collection.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Probing for Pulsars: An XMM Study of the Composite SNRS G327.1-1.1 and CTA1

The subject grant is for analysis of XMM data from the supernova remnant CTA1. Our investigation centered on the study of the compact source Rx 50007.0+7302 that, based on our previous observations, appears to be a neutron star powering a wind nebula in the remnant interior. This compact source has also been suggested as the counterpart of the EGRET source 2EG J0008+7307. The analysis of the data from the compact source is complete. We find that the spectrum of the source is well described by a power law with the addition of a soft thermal component that may correspond to emission from hot polar cap regions or to cooling emission from a light element atmosphere over the entire star. There is evidence of extended emission on small spatial scales which may correspond to structure in the underlying synchrotron nebula. Extrapolation of the nonthermal emission component to gamma-ray energies yields a flux that is consistent with that of 2EG J0008+7307, thus strengthening the proposition that there is a gamma-ray emitting pulsar at the center of CTA 1. Our timing studies with the EPIC pn data revealed no evidence for pulsations, however; we set an upper limit of 61% on the pulsed fraction from this source. The results from this study were presented in a poster at the recent IAU Symposium in Sydney, Australia. A paper summarizing these results, entitled "Xray Observations of the Compact Source in CTA 1" (Slane et al.) has been submitted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal.

Slane, Patrick↗

Probing for Pulsars in XMM Study of the Composite SNRS G327.1-1.1 and CTA 1

The subject grant is for analysis of XMM data from the supernova remnant CTA1. Our investigation centered on the study of the compact source RX 50007.0+7302 that, based on our previous observations, appears to be a neutron star powering a wind nebula in the remnant interior. This compact source has also been suggested as the counterpart of the EGRET source 2EG J0008+7307. The analysis of the data from the compact source is complete. We find that the spectrum of the source is well described by a power law with the addition of a soft thermal component that may correspond to emission from hot polar cap regions or to cooling emission from a light element atmosphere over the entire star. There is evidence of extended emission on small spatial scales which may correspond to structure in the underlying synchrotron nebula. Extrapolation of the nonthermal emission component to gamma-ray energies yields a flux that is consistent with that of 2EG J0008+7307, thus strengthening the proposition that there is a gamma-ray emitting pulsar at the center of CTA 1. Our timing studies with the EPIC pn data revealed no evidence for pulsations, however; we set an upper limit of 61% on the pulsed fraction from this source. The results from this study were presented.

Mushotsky, Richard↗

Low cost environmental sensors for Spaceflight : NMP Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) requirements

An outstanding problem in spaceflight is the lack of adequate sensors for monitoring the space environment and its effects on engineering systems. By adequate, we mean low cost in terms of mission impact (e.g., low price, low mass/size, low power, low data rate, and low design impact). The New Millennium Program (NMP) is investigating the development of such a low-cost Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) package for inclusion on its technology validation flights. This effort follows from the need by NMP to characterize the space environment during testing so that potential users can extrapolate the test results to end-use conditions. The immediate objective of this effort is to develop a small diagnostic sensor package that could be obtained from commercial sources. Environments being considered are: contamination, atomic oxygen, ionizing radiation, cosmic radiation, EMI, and temperature. This talk describes the requirements and rational for selecting these environments and reviews a preliminary design that includes a micro-controller data logger with data storage and interfaces to the sensors and spacecraft. If successful, such a sensor package could be the basis of a unique, long term program for monitoring the effects of the space environment on spacecraft systems.

Galileo↗

Low Cost Environmental Sensors for Spaceflight: NMP Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) Requirements

An outstanding problem in spaceflight is the lack of adequate sensors for monitoring the space environment and its effects on engineering systems. By adequate, we mean low cost in terms of mission impact (e.g., low price, low mass/size, low power, low data rate, and low design impact). The New Millennium Program (NMP) is investigating the development of such a low-cost Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) package for inclusion on its technology validation flights. This effort follows from the need by NMP to characterize the space environment during testing so that potential users can extrapolate the test results to end-use conditions. The immediate objective of this effort is to develop a small diagnostic sensor package that could be obtained from commercial sources. Environments being considered are: contamination, atomic oxygen, ionizing radiation, cosmic radiation, EMI, and temperature. This talk describes the requirements and rational for selecting these environments and reviews a preliminary design that includes a micro-controller data logger with data storage and interfaces to the sensors and spacecraft. If successful, such a sensor package could be the basis of a unique, long term program for monitoring the effects of the space environment on spacecraft systems.

New Millennium Program (NMP)↗

Mars 2001 Lander Mission: Measurement Synergy Through Coordinated Operations Planning And Implementation

The 2001 Mars Surveyor Program Mission includes an orbiter with a gamma ray spectrometer and a multispectral thermal imager, and a lander with an extensive set of instrumentation, a robotic arm, and the Marie Curie Rover. The Mars 2001 Science Operations Working Group (SOWG) is a subgroup of the Project Science Group that has been formed to provide coordinated planning and implementation of scientific observations, particularly for the landed portion of the mission. The SOWG will be responsible for delivery of a science plan and, during operations, generation and delivery of conflict-free sequences. This group will also develop an archive plan that is compliant with Planetary Data System (PDS) standards, and will oversee generation, validation, and delivery of integrated archives to the PDS. In this report we cover one element of the SOWG planning activities, the development of a plan that maximizes the scientific return from lander-based observations by treating the instrument packages as an integrated payload. Scientific objectives for the lander mission have been defined. They include observations focused on determining the bedrock geology of the site through analyses of rocks and also local materials found in the soils, and the surficial geology of the site, including windblown deposits and the nature and history of formation of indurated sediments such as duricrust. Of particular interest is the identification and quantification of processes related to early warm, wet conditions and the presence of hydrologic or hydrothermal cycles. Determining the nature and origin of duricrust and associated salts is -very important in this regard. Specifically, did these deposits form in the vadose zone as pore water evaporated from soils or did they form by other processes, such as deposition of volcanic aerosols? Basic information needed to address these questions includes the morphology, topography, and geologic context of landforms and materials exposed at the site, together with quantitative information on material mineralogy, chemistry, and physical properties (rock textures; soil grain size and shape distributions; degree and nature of soil induration; soil magnetic properties). The calibration targets provide radiometric and mineralogical control surfaces. The magnets allow observations of magnetic phases. Patch plates are imaged to determine adhesive and abrasive properties of soils. Coordinated mission planning is crucial for optimizing the measurement synergy among the packages included on the lander. This planning has already begun through generation of multi-sol detailed operations activities. One focus has been to develop a scenario to use the arm to dig a soil trench to a depth of tens of centimeters. The activity will be monitored through use of Pancam and RAC to ensure nominal operations and to acquire data to determine subsurface physical properties (e.g., angle of repose of trench walls). Pancam and Mini-TES observations would also provide constraints on mineralogy and texture for the walls and bottom of the trench during excavation. If desired, soils excavated at depth could be deposited on the surface and Mossbauer and APXS measurements could be acquired for these materials. Soil samples from various depths would be delivered to MECA for characterization of aqueous geochemistry and physical properties of soil grains, particularly size, shape, and hardness. These physical properties would be determined by optical and atomic force microscopy. When completed, detailed information of soil properties as a function of depth would be obtained. These various data sets would constrain our understanding of whether or not there are systematic variations in soil characteristics as a function of depth. These variations might be related, for example, to evaporative moisture losses and formation of salt deposits, thereby indicating water transport processes occurred fairly recently. Many other value-added measurement scenarios are being developed. For example, characterizing the nature and dynamics of dust deposition will be done using MIP/DART to provide deposition rates, Pancam and RAC imaging of lander and rover surfaces to extrapolate these measurements to other areas, and a variety of measurements to determine if the bulk loose soil has the same characteristics as dust that accumulates during the mission. Bedrock geology of the site is primarily an APEX-focus setting, mineralogy, and texture, and APXS data to be we interest will be to determine the extent to which rock hydrothermal processes, given that APEX is the precursor 4 and 2005 rover missions. Additional information is contained in the original.

Arvidson, R.↗

Spatial Pattern of Cell Damage in Tissue from Heavy Ions

A new Monte Carlo algorithm was developed that can model passage of heavy ions in a tissue, and their action on the cellular matrix for 2- or 3-dimensional cases. The build-up of secondaries such as projectile fragments, target fragments, other light fragments, and delta-rays was simulated. Cells were modeled as a cell culture monolayer in one example, where the data were taken directly from microscopy (2-d cell matrix). A simple model of tissue was given as abstract spheres with close approximation to real cell geometries (3-d cell matrix), as well as a realistic model of tissue was proposed based on microscopy images. Image segmentation was used to identify cells in an irradiated cell culture monolayer, or slices of tissue. The cells were then inserted into the model box pixel by pixel. In the case of cell monolayers (2-d), the image size may exceed the modeled box size. Such image was is moved with respect to the box in order to sample as many cells as possible. In the case of the simple tissue (3-d), the tissue box is modeled with periodic boundary conditions, which extrapolate the technique to macroscopic volumes of tissue. For real tissue, specific spatial patterns for cell apoptosis and necrosis are expected. The cell patterns were modeled based on action cross sections for apoptosis and necrosis estimated based on BNL data, and other experimental data.

Ponomarev, Artem L.↗

Flight inspection data and crack initiation times

Lockheed C-130 service-flight inspection data is reduced by means of fracture mechanics and statistical analysis into a form from which the probability of time to crack initiation and the distribution of initial flaw sizes for various locations on the aircraft can be determined. Crack sizes are normalized by extrapolating a growing crack backwards from its first recorded size to .03 inches (crack initiation size) yielding the time to crack initiation. In a similar fashion, the crack is grown backwards to a time equal to zero to yield an initial flaw size. In order to perform the discussed computations, crack growth constants were computed for each individual location and were analyzed statistically. Statistical distributions were fitted to times to crack initiation and to initial flaw sizes in order to describe their expected behavior. Weibull and Johnson distributions have been found to fit the data reasonably well but for a better fit convolution integrals of Poisson load distributions and Weibull strength distributions are needed.

Johnson, W. S.↗

Accurate hydrodynamic force and torque correlations for prolate spheroids from Stokes regime to high Reynolds numbers

Detailed simulations of flow around various prolate spheroids are performed using multi-relaxation time lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). The simulations are performed in the Reynolds numbers range 0.1 ≤ Re ≤ 2000 at different incident angles 0°≤ φ ≤ 90° for various prolate spheroids of aspect ratios 1 ≤ λ ≤ 8. The Re is based on the volume equivalent sphere diameter. From the simulations, accurate correlations for average drag, lift and torque coefficients (C D , C L , and C T respectively) are proposed. The mean deviations between the correlations and the simulation data for C D , C L , and C T are 2%, 6.5%, and 4.7% respectively. Furthermore, the correlations are fitted with the physics in mind such that they can be extrapolated beyond the regimes simulated. The fits are designed such that correlations reduce to analytical (C D and C L ) solutions available for prolate spheroids in the limit Re ≈ 0. At high Re, the correlations mimic the asymptotic flattening of C D as for spheres and therefore, we expect the correlations to be valid until the critical Re (≈ 10 5 ). Furthermore, extensive comparison of our correlations with other high-fidelity simulations from literature demonstrate the accuracy of our work compared to other correlations from literature. This work enables researchers to perform accurate unresolved Euler-Lagrangian simulations for a wide range of elongated particles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Prediction Uncertainties beyond the Range of Experience: A Case Study in Inertial Confinement Fusion Implosion Experiments

Scientists often predict physical outcomes, e.g., experimental results, with the assistance of computer codes that, at their best, only coarsely approximate reality. Coarse predictions are challenging in critical part due to the multitude of seemingly arbitrary yet consequential decisions that must be made such as choice of relevant data, calibration of code parameters, and construction of empirical discrepancy forms. In this paper, we present a case study in the context of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosion experiments where extrapolative predictions are needed with quantified uncertainties. The purpose of this case study is to reflect relevant statistical methods, as applied to ICF model fitting and prediction, to document the numerous decisions that must be made in the prediction pipeline, to extend a complex example in extrapolation to the uncertainty quantification (UQ) community, and to reflect on the challenges we encountered supporting extrapolations with imperfect models and thereby recommend several future research directions. We conclude with a discussion about the UQ community's role in less than ideal predictive scenarios like our ICF exercise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A theoretical study of mixing downstream of transverse injection into a supersonic boundary layer

A theoretical and analytical study was made of mixing downstream of transverse hydrogen injection, from single and multiple orifices, into a Mach 4 air boundary layer over a flat plate. Numerical solutions to the governing three-dimensional, elliptic boundary layer equations were obtained using a general purpose computer program. Founded upon a finite element solution algorithm. A prototype three-dimensional turbulent transport model was developed using mixing length theory in the wall region and the mass defect concept in the outer region. Excellent agreement between the computed flow field and experimental data for a jet/freestream dynamic pressure ratio of unity was obtained in the centerplane region of the single-jet configuration. Poorer agreement off centerplane suggests an inadequacy of the extrapolated two-dimensional turbulence model. Considerable improvement in off-centerplane computational agreement occured for a multi-jet configuration, using the same turbulent transport model.

Baker, A. J.↗

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Results of LACIE integrated drought analysis (Southern U.S. Great Plains drought 1975-76)

The development and intensification of the drought in the United States southern Great Plains was monitored during the initial growing period of the 1975-76 winter wheat crop. Because of the severity of the drought conditions, a drought analysis plan was developed and implemented beginning on March 8, 1976. Sample segments and full-frame imagery were used at 9-day intervals to identify the drought area and quantify the effects on the wheat acreage. Yield model simulations were run to extrapolate the effects of the drought on yield estimates at harvest, assuming 10 and 90 percent of normal rainfall for subsequent months and 30-day forecast. A survey of LANDSAT data for improvement of distribution of rainfall patterns in the drought area was done for April and yield models run for drought affected crop reporting districts. Special aggregations were performed by the Crop Assessment Subsystem on the drought area to evaluate the utility of remote sensing to monitor the effect of the drought on wheat area, yield, and production.

Thompson, D. R.↗

F-15 flight flutter test program

The modes to be observed during the F-15 flight flutter test program were selected on the basis of the results of analytical studies, wind tunnel tests, and ground vibration tests. The modes (both symmetrical and antisymmetrical) tracked on this basis were: fin first bending, fin torsion, fin tip roll, stabilator bending, stabilator pitch, boom lateral bending, boom torsion, boom vertical bending, wing first bending, wing second bending, wing first torsion, outer wing torsion, and aileron rotation. Data obtained for these various modes were evaluated in terms of damping versus airspeed at 1525 m (5000 ft), damping versus altitude at the cross-section Mach numbers (to extrapolate to the damping value to be expected at sea level), and flutter boundaries on the basis of flutter margin of various modal pairs representing potential flutter mechanisms. Results of these evaluations are summarized in terms of minimum predicted flutter margin for the various mechanisms.

Katz, H.↗

Advanced high temperature thermoelectrics for space power

Preliminary results from a spacecraft system study show that an optimum hot junction temperature is in the range of 1500 K for advanced nuclear reactor technology combined with thermoelectric conversion. Advanced silicon germanium thermoelectric conversion is feasible if hot junction temperatures can be raised roughly 100 C or if gallium phosphide can be used to improve the figure of merit, but the performance is marginal. Two new classes of refractory materials, rare earth sulfides and boron-carbon alloys, are being investigated to improve the specific weight of the generator system. Preliminary data on the sulfides have shown very high figures of merit over short temperature ranges. Both n- and p-type doping have been obtained. Pure boron-carbide may extrapolate to high figure of merit at temperatures well above 1500 K but not lower temperature; n-type conduction has been reported by others, but not yet observed in the JPL program. Inadvertant impurity doping may explain the divergence of results reported.

Lockwood, A.↗

The solar minimum X2.6/1B flare and CME of 9 July 1996: Propagation - Pt 2

The interplanetary propagation aspects of the first X-class solar flare and coronal mass ejection are discussed. The solar data relevant to this event are summarized. Data from WIND and charge element and isotope analysis system (CELIAS) show solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field disturbances early on 12 July 1996. It was observed that the extrapolation of the coronal mass ejection back to the flare time suggests a close association between them. Moreover, the coronal mass ejection speed is similar to the type two shock's speed. The results suggest that the coronal mass ejection is intimately related to the shock itself.

Dryer, M.↗