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At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Evolving Obs4MIPs to Support Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)

Over the past four years, an initiative known as Observations for Model Intercomparison Projects (Obs4MIPs) has successfully completed its pilot phase by adopting a set of technical protocols (dataset format, metadata standards, and documentation requirements) for dataset contributions, producing datasets that conform to these standards and archiving them for distribution on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) alongside the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model output. This pilot phase of Obs4MIPs, initiated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, supported CMIP5 and provided a path to improve the coordination between observational communities and major climate modeling intercomparison projects such as CMIP. Obs4MIPs is now being embraced by the international community, with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Data Advisory Council (WDAC) empaneling a task team to provide guidance and governance for Obs4MIPs at an international level, in conjunction with the existing NASA Science Working Group that is more tightly focused on NASA satellite data products. Here, following the example of the first DOE–NASA Obs4MIPs meeting, and with an initial design of CMIP6 being published, a meeting of over 50 experts in both climate modeling and satellite data from the United States, Europe, Japan, and Australia convened at NASA headquarters in Washington, D.C., for the purpose of planning the evolution of Obs4MIPs and its connection to the CMIP6 experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disproportionate control on aerosol burden by light rain

Atmospheric aerosols are of great climatic and environmental importance due to their effects on the Earth’s radiative energy balance and air quality. Aerosol concentrations are strongly influenced by rainfall via wet removal. Global climate models have been used to quantify their climate and health effects. However, they commonly suffer from a well-known problem of ‘too much light rain and too little heavy rain’. The impact of simulated rainfall intensities on aerosol burden at the global scale is still unclear. In this study, we show that rainfall intensity has profound impacts on aerosol burden, and light rain has a disproportionate control on it. By improving the representation of convection, the light-rain (1–20 mm d –1 ) frequency in two state-of-the-art global climate models is reduced. As a result, the aerosol burden is increased globally, especially over the tropics and subtropics, by as much as 0.3 in aerosol optical depth in tropical rain belts. It is attributed to the dominant contribution of light rain to the accumulated wet removal by its frequent occurrence despite its weak intensity. The implication of these findings is that understanding the nature of aerosol scavenging by rainfall is critical to aerosol–climate interaction and its impact on climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Radiative Effect on Cloud Microphysics from the Arctic to the Tropics

Cloud representation is one of the largest uncertainties in the current weather and climate models. In this article, the observations and modeling of the radiative effect on (cloud) microphysics (REM) from the Arctic to the Tropics are overviewed, providing a new direction to meet the challenge of cloud representation. REM deals with the radiation-induced temperature difference between cloud particles and air. It leads to two common phenomena observed at the surface—dew and frost—and impacts clouds aloft significantly, which is noticed via the wide occurrence of horizontally oriented ice crystals (HOICs). However, REM has been overlooked by all of the operational weather and climate models. Based on the bin model of REM and the global distribution of radiative cooling/warming, the observations of REM from several platforms (e.g., aircrafts, field campaigns, and satellites) are coordinated in this article, yielding a global picture on REM. As a result, the picture is compatible with the global distribution of HOICs and other ice crystal characteristics obtained from various clouds on the globe, such as diamond dust (or clear-sky precipitation) in the Arctic, sub-visual cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer, and other cirrus clouds from the low to high latitudes. In addition, ice crystals possess relatively strong REM compared to liquid drops because their aspect ratio is usually not one. The global picture on REM can be used by the weather and climate modelers to diagnose their cloud representation biases. It can also be used to improve the atmospheric ice retrieval algorithm from satellite observations.

cloud microphysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric teleconnection processes linking winter air stagnation and haze extremes in China with regional Arctic sea ice decline

Abstract. Recent studies suggested significant impacts of boreal cryosphere changes on wintertime air stagnation and haze pollution extremes in China. However, the underlying mechanisms of such a teleconnection relationship remains unclear. Here we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate dynamic processes leading to atmospheric circulation and air stagnation responses to Arctic sea ice changes. We conduct four climate sensitivity experiments by perturbing sea ice concentrations (SIC) and corresponding sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and early winter over the whole Arctic and three subregions in the climate model. The results indicate distinct responses in circulation patterns and regional ventilation to the region-specific Arctic changes, with the largest increase of both the probability (by 132 %) and the intensity (by 30 %) of monthly air stagnation extremes being found in the experiment driven by SIC and SST changes over the Pacific sector of the Arctic (the East Siberian and Chukchi seas). The increased air stagnation extremes are mainly driven by an amplified planetary-scale atmospheric teleconnection pattern that resembles the negative phase of the Eurasian (EU) pattern. Dynamical diagnostics suggest that convergence of transient eddy forcing in the vicinity of Scandinavia in winter is largely responsible for the amplification of the teleconnection pattern. Transient eddy vorticity fluxes dominate the transient eddy forcing and produce a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly near Scandinavia and wave train propagation across Eurasia to the downstream regions in East Asia. The piecewise potential vorticity inversion analysis reveals that this long-range atmospheric teleconnection of Arctic origin takes place primarily via the middle and upper troposphere. The anomalous ridge over East Asia in the middle and upper troposphere worsens regional ventilation conditions by weakening monsoon northwesterlies and enhancing temperature inversions near the surface, leading to more and stronger air stagnation and pollution extremes over eastern China in winter. Ensemble projections based on state-of-the-art climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) corroborate this teleconnection relationship between high-latitude environmental changes and midlatitude weather extremes, though the tendency and magnitude vary considerably among each participating model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Climate and atmospheric modeling studies

The climate and atmosphere modeling research programs have concentrated on the development of appropriate atmospheric and upper ocean models, and preliminary applications of these models. Principal models are a one-dimensional radiative-convective model, a three-dimensional global model, and an upper ocean model. Principal applications were the study of the impact of CO2, aerosols, and the solar 'constant' on climate.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Weather@home2 Simulations over West African Region

Weather and climate forecasting, using climate models, have become essential tools and life-savers in the West African region; in spite of the fact that climate models do not fully comply with attributes of forecast qualities—RASAP: reliability, association, skill, accuracy, and precision. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate, in comparison to CRU and ERA5 datasets, the RASAP compliance-level of the weather@home2 modeling system (w@h2). Findings from some statistical evaluations show that, to a moderately significant extent, w@h2 model provides useful information during the monsoon seasons; skills to capture the Little Dry Season over the Guinea zone; predictive skills for the onset season; ability to reproduce all the annual characteristics of the surface maximum air temperature over the region; as well as skill to detect heat waves that usually ravage West Africa during the boreal spring. The model displays traces of attributes that are needed for seasonal climate predictions and applications. Deficiencies in the quantitative reproducibility point to the facts that the model does provide a reliability akin to that of regional climate models. This paper further furnishes a prospective user with information on whether the model might be “useful or not” for a particular application.

West Africa↗
DOE OSTI2020

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

Abstract A large spread in model estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean near-surface air-temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration, leaves us greatly disadvantaged in guiding policy-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this study, we show that the projected ECS in the latest generation of climate models is highly related to seasonal variations of extratropical low-cloud fraction (LCF) in historical simulations. Marked reduction of extratropical LCF from winter to summer is found in models with ECS > 4.75 K, in accordance with the significant reduction of extratropical LCF under a warming climate in these models. In contrast, a pronounced seasonal cycle of extratropical LCF, as supported by satellite observations, is largely absent in models with ECS < 3.3 K. The distinct seasonality in extratropical LCF in climate models is ascribed to their different prevailing cloud regimes governing the extratropical LCF variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aerosol–Ice Formation Closure: A Southern Great Plains Field Campaign

Prediction of ice formation in clouds presents one of the grand challenges in the atmospheric sciences. Immersion freezing initiated by ice-nucleating particles (INPs) is the dominant pathway of primary ice crystal formation in mixed-phase clouds, where supercooled water droplets and ice crystals coexist, with important implications for the hydrological cycle and climate. However, derivation of INP number concentrations from an ambient aerosol population in cloud-resolving and climate models remains highly uncertain. We conducted an aerosol–ice formation closure pilot study using a field-observational approach to evaluate the predictive capability of immersion freezing INPs. The closure study relies on collocated measurements of the ambient size-resolved and single-particle composition and INP number concentrations. The acquired particle data serve as input in several immersion freezing parameterizations, which are employed in cloud-resolving and climate models, for prediction of INP number concentrations. We discuss in detail one closure case study in which a front passed through the measurement site, resulting in a change of ambient particle and INP populations. We achieved closure in some circumstances within uncertainties, but we emphasize the need for freezing parameterization of potentially missing INP types and evaluation of the choice of parameterization to be employed. Overall, this closure pilot study aims to assess the level of parameter details and measurement strategies needed to achieve aerosol–ice formation closure. Furthermore, the closure approach is designed to accurately guide immersion freezing schemes in models, and ultimately identify the leading causes for climate model bias in INP predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The Effect of Global Warming on Severe Thunderstorms in the United States

How will warming temperatures influence thunderstorm severity? This question can be explored by using climate models to diagnose changes in large-scale convective instability (CAPE) and wind shear, conditions that are known to be conducive to the formation of severe thunderstorms. First, an ensemble of climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is evaluated on its ability to reproduce a radiosonde climatology of such storm-favorable conditions in the current climate's spring and summer seasons, focusing on the contiguous United States (CONUS). Of the 11 climate models evaluated, a high-performing subset of four (GFDL CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, MRI-CGCM3, and NorESM1-M) is identified. Second, the twenty-first-century changes in the frequency of environments favorable to severe thunderstorms are calculated in these high-performing models as they are forced by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions pathways. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the models predict consistent CONUS-mean fractional springtime increases in the range of 50%-180% by the end of the twenty-first century; for the summer, three of the four models predict increases in the range of 40%-120% and one model predicts a small decrease. This disagreement between the models is traced to divergent projections for future CAPE and boundary layer humidity in the Great Plains. This paper also explores the sensitivity of the results to the relative weight given to wind shear in determining how "favorable" a large-scale environment is for the development of severe thunderstorms, and it is found that this weighting is not the dominant source of uncertainty in projections of future thunderstorm severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6

Abstract The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state‐of‐the‐art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical‐subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño‐like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña‐like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack of consensus on whether an increase or decrease in ENSO variability is expected in the future. Finally, we found a possible relationship between historical SST and low‐level cloud cover biases in the ENSO region and future changes in ELI; however, this result may be impacted by limitations in data availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Simultaneous laboratory measurements of CO2 and H2O adsorption on palagonite: Implications for the Martian climate and volatile reservoir

We are measuring the simultaneous adsorption of H2O and CO2 on palagonite materials in order to improve the formulation of climate models for Mars. We report on the initial co-adsorption data. Models of the Martian climate and volatile inventory indicate that the regolith serves as one of the primary reservoirs of outgassed volatiles and that it exchanges H2O and CO2 with the atmosphere in response to changes in insolation associated with astronomical cycles. Physical adsorbate must exist on the surfaces of the cold particulates that constitute the regolith, and the size of that reservoir can be assessed through laboratory measurements of adsorption on terrestrial analogs. Many studies of the independent adsorption of H2O and CO2 on Mars analog were made and appear in the literature. Empirical expressions that relate the adsorptive coverage of each gas to the temperature of the soil and partial pressure have been derived based on the laboratory data. Numerical models incorporate these adsorption isotherms into climatic models, which predict how the adsorptive coverage of the regolith and hence, the pressure of each gas in the atmosphere will vary as the planet moves through its orbit. These models suggest that the regolith holds several tens to hundreds of millibars of CO2 and that during periods of high obliquity warming of the high-latitude regolith will result in desorption of the CO2, and a consequent increase in atmospheric pressure. At lower obliquities, the caps cool and the equator warms forcing the desorption of several tens of millibars of CO2, which is trapped into quasipermanent CO2 caps.

Zent, A. P.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Insolation and the Precession Index

Simple nonlinear climate models yield a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin omega, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and omega is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these periods. Two such models, a grey body and an energy balance climate model with an added quadratic term, produce e sin omega terms in temperature. These terms, which without feedback mechanisms achieve extreme values of about plus or minus 0.48 K for the grey body and plus or minus 0.64 K for the energy balance model, simultaneously cool one hemisphere while they warm the other. Moreover, they produce long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perigee is near northern solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the perigee is near southern solstice. Thus this seemingly paradoxical mechanism works against the standard model which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it may be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is close to the Earth during southern summer. The cold water eventually flows north, cooling the northern hemisphere. This might explain why the northern oceans lag the southern ones when it comes to orbital forcing.

Rubincam, David Parry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating proxy influence in assimilated paleoclimate reconstructions – Testing the exchangeability of two ensembles of spatial processes

Climate field reconstructions (CFR) attempt to estimate spatiotemporal fields of climate variables in the past using climate proxies such as tree rings, ice cores, and corals. Data Assimilation (DA) methods are a recent and promising new means of deriving CFRs that optimally fuse climate proxies with climate model output. Despite the growing application of DA-based CFRs, little is understood about how much the assimilated proxies change the statistical properties of the climate model data. To address this question, we propose a robust and computationally efficient method, based on functional data depth, to evaluate differences in the distributions of two spatiotemporal processes. In this study, we apply our test to study global and regional proxy influence in DA-based CFRs by comparing the background and analysis states, which are treated as two samples of spatiotemporal fields. We find that the analysis states are significantly altered from the climate-model-based background states due to the assimilation of proxies. Moreover, the difference between the analysis and background states increases with the number of proxies, even in regions far beyond proxy collection sites. Our approach allows us to characterize the added value of proxies, indicating where and when the analysis states are distinct from the background states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty for Western North America

Abstract Climate change research uses an ensemble of general circulation model runs (GCMs-runs) to predict future climate under uncertainties. To reduce computational costs, this study selects representative GCM-runs (RGCM-runs) for Western North America (WNA) based on their performance in replicating historical climate conditions from 1981 to 2005 and projecting future changes from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100. This evaluation is conducted under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. By using an envelope-based selection technique and a multi-objective distance-based approach, we identify four RGCM-runs per RCP representing diverse climatic conditions, including wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, and dry-cold. Compared to the full-set, these selected runs show a decreased mean absolute error (MAE) between the reference and RGCM-runs concerning the monthly average mean air temperature (T̄) and precipitation (P̄). For RCP4.5, T̄ MAE is 0.45 (vs. 0.58 in the full-set) and P̄ MAE is 0.31 (vs. 0.42). For RCP8.5, T̄ MAE is 0.51 (vs. 0.75) and P̄ MAE is 0.25 (vs. 0.36). The lower MAE values in the RGCM-run set indicate closer alignment between predicted and reference values, making the RGCM-run suitable for climate impact assessments in the region.

Water Resources↗
NASA NTRS2024

Modeling Impacts of Dust Mineralogy on Fast Climate Response

Mineralogical composition drives dust impacts on Earth's climate systems. However, most climate models still use homogeneous dust, without accounting for the temporal and spatial variation in mineralogy. To quantify the radiative impact of resolving dust mineralogy on Earth's climate, we implement and simulate the distribution of dust minerals (i.e., illite, kaolinite, smectite, hematite, calcite, feldspar, quartz, and gypsum) from Claquin et al. (1999) (C1999) and activate their interaction with radiation in the GFDL AM4.0 model. Resolving mineralogy reduces dust absorption compared to the homogeneous dust used in the standard GFDL AM4.0 model that assumes a globally uniform hematite volume content of 2.7 % (HD27). The reduction in dust absorption results in improved agreement with observation-based single-scattering albedo (SSA), radiative fluxes from CERES (the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System), and land surface temperature from the CRU (Climatic Research Unit) compared to the baseline HD27 model version. It also results in distinct radiative impacts on Earth's climate over North Africa. Over the 19-year (from 2001 to 2019) modeled period during JJA (June–July–August), the reduction in dust absorption in AM4.0 leads to a reduction of over 50 % in net downward radiation across the Sahara and approximately 20 % over the Sahel at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) compared to the baseline HD27 model version. The reduced dust absorption weakens the atmospheric warming effect of dust aerosols and leads to an alteration in land surface temperature, resulting in a decrease of 0.66 K over the Sahara and an increase of 0.7 K over the Sahel. The less warming in the atmosphere suppresses ascent and weakens the monsoon inflow from the Gulf of Guinea. This brings less moisture to the Sahel, which combined with decreased ascent induces a reduction of precipitation. To isolate the effect of reduced absorption compared to resolving spatial and temporal mineralogy, we carry out a simulation where the hematite volume content of homogeneous dust is reduced from 2.7 % to 0.9 % (HD09). The dust absorption (e.g., single-scattering albedo) of HD09 is comparable to that of the mineralogically speciated model on a global mean scale, albeit with a lower spatial variation that arises solely from particle size. Comparison of the two models indicates that the spatial inhomogeneity in dust absorption resulting from resolving mineralogy does not have significant impacts on Earth's radiation and climate, provided there is a similar level of dust absorption on a global mean scale before and after resolving dust mineralogy. However, uncertainties related to emission and distribution of minerals may blur the advantages of resolving minerals to study their impact on radiation, cloud properties, ocean biogeochemistry, air quality, and photochemistry. On the other hand, lumping together clay minerals (i.e., illite, kaolinite, and smectite), but excluding externally mixed hematite and gypsum, appears to provide both computational efficiency and relative accuracy. Nevertheless, for specific research, it may be necessary to fully resolve mineralogy to achieve accuracy.

Soil dust↗
DOE OSTI2014

A Holocene East Asian winter monsoon record at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert and its comparison with a transient simulation

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) exhibits significant variability on intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal time scales and the variability can be extended to Holocene centennial and millennial scales. Previous Holocene EAWM proxy data records, which were mostly located in Central, Eastern and Southern China, did not show a consistent Holocene EAWM history. Therefore, it is difficult to provide insights into mechanisms of the long-term winter monsoon variability on the basis of the records. Eolian sediments at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert, Western China, are sensitive to the EAWM changes and less affected by the East Asian summer monsoon due to an obstruction of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Here, this paper presents a comparison between a well-dated Holocene EAWM record and coupled climate model simulations, so as to explore physical processes and influencing factors of the Holocene EAWM. Sediment samples from two Holocene eolian sedimentary sections [Huangyanghe (a) and Huangyanghe (b)] were acquired at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert. Chronologies were established based on twenty bulk organic matter AMS 14 C ages and five pollen concentrates AMS 14 C ages. Proxy data, including grain-size, total organic carbon, magnetic susceptibility and carbonate content were obtained from the two eolian sections. The grain-size standard deviation model was applied to determine components sensitive to variability of the Holocene EAWM. After a comparison of environmentally-sensitive grain-size components and proxy data, the 20–200 μm component at the Huangyanghe (a) and the 20–159 μm component at the Huangyanghe (b) section were selected as indicators of the Holocene EAWM, which show a strong early Holocene winter monsoon and a decline of the winter monsoon since the mid-Holocene. We also present equilibrium and transient simulations of the climate evolution for the Holocene using a state-of-art coupled climate model: the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Indices for the Holocene EAWM were calculated and are consistent with the reconstructed Holocene EAWM intensity. The simulations indicate that orbital forcing effects on the land-sea temperature and sea level pressure contrast can account for the observed EAWM trends. Other forcings that were present in the early Holocene, including the remnant Laurentide ice sheet and meltwater forcing in the North Atlantic, were not responsible for the Holocene trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗