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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate

The sea level pressure variability in the North Pacific modulates the climate of the Arctic and surrounding continents, substantially impacting ecosystems and indigenous communities. Our analysis based on data from the CESM2 Large Ensemble and different Model Intercomparison Project datasets reveals that the interannual variability of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) gradually decouples from the contemporaneous atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific as external forcing increases in intensity in the future. Future projections show that the North Pacific-Arctic relationship during the fall season consistently weakens in magnitude until the end of this century, and in the 22nd and 23rd centuries, the relationship is negligible throughout the year. We show that under increased greenhouse gas emissions, the regional heat fluxes extensively control the Arctic temperature variability, and the strength of the projected North Pacific-Arctic relationship is strongly dependent on the Arctic sea ice extent. Our results suggest that under future warming, a strong coupling of Arctic SAT with the underlying ocean and a weakening of the meridional pressure gradient driven by an enhanced rate of sea ice retreat will weaken the interannual footprint of North Pacific variability on Arctic SAT. Therefore, we propose that the alarming rate of sea-ice decline over recent decades and projected in the near future could accelerate the rate of decoupling. Further, we suggest that mitigation strategies for the Arctic should focus on regional mechanisms operating on interannual and seasonal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models

Arid and semi-arid regions of the world are particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gas–driven hydroclimate change. Climate models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society in these regions must adapt to, but here, we present a concerning discrepancy between observed and model-based historical hydroclimate trends. Over the arid/semi-arid regions of the world, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric water vapor, on average, over the last four decades, in association with the increased water vapor–holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. In observations, this increase in atmospheric water vapor has not happened, suggesting that the availability of moisture to satisfy the increased atmospheric demand is lower in reality than in models in arid/semi-arid regions. This discrepancy is most clear in locations that are arid/semi-arid year round, but it is also apparent in more humid regions during the most arid months of the year. Here, it indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities which could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, including fire hazard, moving forward.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Natural variation in growth and yield to waterlogging across climate-diverse pennycress accessions

Many winter annual crops, such as pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense L.), are subjected to heavy precipitation events during their growing season. Therefore, it is essential to identify pennycress accessions with natural variation in flooding resilience. We used climate modeling data to assess spring soil moisture levels in the geographic origins of 471 natural pennycress accessions. We selected 34 accessions with variation in predicted soil moisture and tested survivability under prolonged waterlogging at the rosette stage. It took seven weeks for the first accessions to die, indicating that pennycress is hardy to prolonged waterlogging at the vegetative stage. Furthermore, we chose ‘susceptible’ and ‘tolerant’ accessions to waterlog for one week at the reproductive stage, the growth stage aligned with spring rainfall. Six accessions had significantly reduced seed weight at maturity and two had minimal impacts on growth and seed yield after waterlogging and can be further explored for adaptive traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coffee supply chain planning under climate change

The growing demand but uncertain supply makes the sustainability of the coffee industry a shared concern for all participants along the coffee supply chain. This study proposed a decision-making model that comprises the cultivation management, including shade management and annual agriculture management, and the supply chain logistics. A two-stage stochastic program is presented and used within a rolling horizon scheme that periodically updates input data information to deal with uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios. The program minimizes the total expected cost of the entire supply chain of arabica coffee. The study applied the model to the real case study of arabica coffee bean supply to the U.S. market, trying to answer whether arabica coffee supply can meet the U.S. demand from 2022 to 2050 and how to best mitigate any shortage through corporate-farmer partnerships. The results show that the coffee supply will have a 3% shortage in the future; medium-level shade management and more irrigation and fertilization are possible mitigation strategies. These results demonstrate the need for all participants to adopt suitable technologies for the sustainability of global coffee supply chains together.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Non-growing season plant nutrient uptake controls Arctic tundra vegetation composition under future climate

Abstract Plant growth and distribution in high-latitude tundra ecosystems is strongly limited by nutrient availability and is critical for quantifying centennial-scale carbon-climate interactions. However, land model representations of plant–nutrient interactions are uncertain, leading to poor comparisons with high-latitude observations. Although it has been recognized for decades in the observational community that plants continue to acquire nutrients well past when aboveground activity has ceased, most large-scale land models ignore this process. Here we address the role tundra plant nutrient acquisition during the non-growing season (NGS) has on centennial-scale vegetation growth and dynamics, with a focus on shrub expansion. We apply a well-tested mechanistic model of coupled plant, microbial, hydrological, and thermal dynamics that explicitly represents nutrient acquisition based on plant and microbial traits, thereby allowing a prognostic assessment of NGS nutrient uptake. We first show that the model accurately represents observed seasonality of NGS plant nutrient uptake in a northern Alaskan tundra site. Applying the model across the North America tundra indicates that NGS nutrient uptake is consistent with observations and ranges between ∼5% and 50% of annual uptake, with large spatial variability and dependence on plant functional type. We show that NGS plant nutrient acquisition strongly enhances modeled 21 st century tundra shrub growth and expansion rates. Our results suggest that without NGS nutrient uptake, total shrub aboveground dominance would be ∼50% lower, limited primarily by their inability to grow tall enough to maximize their inherent capacity for light competition. Evergreen shrubs would be more strongly affected because of their relatively lower capacity for nutrient remobilization and acquisition compared to deciduous shrubs. Our results highlight the importance of NGS plant and soil processes on high-latitude biogeochemistry and vegetation dynamics and motivate new observations and model structures to represent these dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increasing precipitation whiplash in climate change hotspots

Abstract Throughout the world, the hydrologic cycle is projected to become more variable due to climate change, posing challenges in semi-arid regions with high water resource vulnerability. Precipitation whiplash results from hydrologic variability, and refers to interannual shifts between wet (⩾80th historical percentile) and dry (⩽20th historical percentile) years. Using five model large ensembles, we show that whiplash is projected to increase in frequency (25%–60%) and intensity (30%–100%) by 2100 across several semi-arid regions of the globe, including Western North America and the Mediterranean. These changes can be driven by increases in the frequency of wet years or dry years, or both, depending on the region. Moisture budget calculations in these regions illuminate the physical mechanisms behind increased whiplash. Thermodynamic changes generally dominate, with modulations by dynamics, evaporation, and eddies on regional or global scales. These findings highlight increasingly volatile hydrology in semi-arid regions as the 21st Century progresses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying airborne fraction trends and the destination of anthropogenic CO 2 by tracking carbon flows in a simple climate model

Abstract Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have increased as a direct result of human activity and are at their highest level over the last 2 million years, with profound impacts on the Earth system. However, the magnitude and future dynamics of land and ocean carbon sinks are not well understood; therefore, the amount of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions that remain in the atmosphere (the airborne fraction) is poorly constrained. This work aims to quantify the sources and controls of atmospheric CO 2 , the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 over time, and the likelihood of a trend in the airborne fraction. We use Hector v3.0, a coupled simple climate and carbon cycle model with the novel ability to explicitly track carbon as it flows through the Earth system. We use key model parameters in a Monte Carlo analysis of 15 000 model runs from 1750 to 2300. Results are filtered for physical realism against historical observations and CMIP6 projection data, and we calculate the relative importance of parameters controlling how much anthropogenic carbon ends up in the atmosphere. Modeled airborne fraction was roughly 52%, consistent with observational studies. The overwhelming majority of model runs exhibited a negative trend in the airborne fraction from 1960–2020, implying that current-day land and ocean sinks are proportionally taking up more carbon than the atmosphere. However, the percentage of atmospheric CO 2 derived from anthropogenic origins can be much higher because of Earth system feedbacks. We find it peaks at over 90% between 2010–2050. Moreover, when looking at the destination of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions, only a quarter ends up in the atmosphere while more than half of emissions are taken up by the land sink on centennial timescales. This study evaluates the likelihood of airborne fraction trends and provides insights into the dynamics of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Implications of climate change impacts for emission and land use scenario development

Scenarios of future emissions and land use produced by integrated assessment models have traditionally been developed without accounting for how climate change impacts could affect the emissions and land use trajectories themselves. This omission risks skewing our assessments of the plausible range of future emission pathways and associated Earth system changes. Beyond the salience for emission scenario development, a better integrated representation of human and Earth system changes and feedbacks would enable better anticipation of the implications of alternative socio-economic development pathways. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to investigate whether endogenizing several impacts when generating its baseline emission scenario is warranted. We do so by comparing the emissions and land use change that result from the baseline scenario with and without impacts, where impacts are implemented as exogenous changes to water availability, crop and labor productivity, and energy demand and supply. Our results indicate that the effect on global emissions leads to less than 0.1 °C increase in warming by 2100 and therefore do not support endogenizing impacts. This conclusion is conditional on our modeling framework and the specific impact channels represented but is consistent with other studies that have addressed the magnitude of feedbacks by implementing a two-way coupling. However, we do find regional impacts indicating that local economies and well-being measures may be affected significantly.

climate impacts↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate change challenges, plant science solutions

Abstract Climate change is a defining challenge of the 21st century, and this decade is a critical time for action to mitigate the worst effects on human populations and ecosystems. Plant science can play an important role in developing crops with enhanced resilience to harsh conditions (e.g. heat, drought, salt stress, flooding, disease outbreaks) and engineering efficient carbon-capturing and carbon-sequestering plants. Here, we present examples of research being conducted in these areas and discuss challenges and open questions as a call to action for the plant science community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of extreme sub-daily precipitation in high-resolution global climate model simulations

We examine the resolution dependence of errors in extreme sub-daily precipitation in available high-resolution climate models. We find that simulated extreme precipitation increases as horizontal resolution increases but that appropriately constructed model skill metrics do not significantly change. We find little evidence that simulated extreme winter or summer storm processes significantly improve with the resolution because the model performance changes identified are consistent with expectations from scale dependence arguments alone. We also discuss the implications of these scale-dependent limitations on the interpretation of simulated extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal changes in GPP/SIF ratios and their climatic determinants across the Northern Hemisphere

Satellite-derived sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been increasingly used for estimating gross primary production (GPP). However, the relationship between SIF and GPP has not been well defined, impeding the translation of satellite observed SIF to GPP. Previous studies have generally assumed a linear relationship between SIF and GPP at daily and longer time scales, but support for this assumption is lacking. Here, we used the GPP/SIF ratio to investigate seasonal variations in the relationship between SIF and GPP over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Based on multiple SIF products and MODIS and FLUXCOM GPP data, we found strong seasonal hump-shaped patterns for the GPP/SIF ratio over northern latitudes, with higher values in the summer than in the spring or autumn. This hump-shaped GPP/SIF seasonal variation was confirmed by examining different SIF products and was evident for most vegetation types except evergreen broadleaf forests. The seasonal amplitude of the GPP/SIF ratio decreased from the boreal/arctic region to drylands and the tropics. For most of the NH, the lowest GPP/SIF values occurred in October or September, while the maximum GPP/SIF values were evident in June and July. The most pronounced seasonal amplitude of GPP/SIF occurred in intermediate temperature and precipitation ranges. GPP/SIF was positively related to temperature in the early and late parts of the growing season, but not during the peak growing months. These shifting relationships between temperature and GPP/SIF across different months appeared to play a key role in the seasonal dynamics of GPP/SIF. Several mechanisms may explain the patterns we observed, and future research encompassing a broad range of climate and vegetation settings is needed to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal relationships between SIF and GPP. Nonetheless, the strong seasonal variation in GPP/SIF we identified highlights the importance of incorporating this behavior into SIF-based GPP estimations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tree drought physiology: critical research questions and strategies for mitigating climate change effects on forests

Droughts of increasing severity and frequency are a primary cause of forest mortality associated with climate change. Yet, fundamental knowledge gaps regarding the complex physiology of trees limit the development of more effective management strategies to mitigate drought effects on forests. Here, in this work, we highlight some of the basic research needed to better understand tree drought physiology and how new technologies and interdisciplinary approaches can be used to address them. Our discussion focuses on how trees change wood development to mitigate water stress, hormonal responses to drought, genetic variation underlying adaptive drought phenotypes, how trees ‘remember’ prior stress exposure, and how symbiotic soil microbes affect drought response. Next, we identify opportunities for using research findings to enhance or develop new strategies for managing drought effects on forests, ranging from matching genotypes to environments, to enhancing seedling resilience through nursery treatments, to landscape-scale monitoring and predictions. We conclude with a discussion of the need for co-producing research with land managers and extending research to forests in critical ecological regions beyond the temperate zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systemic stomatal responses in plants: Coordinating development, stress, and pathogen defense under a changing climate

To successfully survive, develop, grow and reproduce, multicellular organisms must coordinate their molecular, physiological, developmental and metabolic responses among their different cells and tissues. This process is mediated by cell-to-cell, vascular and/or volatile communication, and involves electric, chemical and/or hydraulic signals. Within this context, stomata serve a dual role by coordinating their responses to the environment with their neighbouring cells at the epidermis, but also with other stomata present on other parts of the plant. As stomata represent one of the most important conduits between the plant and its above-ground environment, as well as directly affect photosynthesis, respiration and the hydraulic status of the plant by controlling its gas and vapour exchange with the atmosphere, coordinating the overall response of stomata within and between different leaves and tissues plays a cardinal role in plant growth, development and reproduction. Here, we discuss different examples of local and systemic stomatal coordination, the different signalling pathways that mediate them, and the importance of systemic stomatal coordination to our food supply, ecosystems and weather patterns, under our changing climate. Importantly, we further discuss the potential biotechnological implications of regulating systemic stomatal responses for enhancing agricultural productivity in a warmer and CO 2 -rich environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tundra Soil Viruses Mediate Responses of Microbial Communities to Climate Warming

The rise of global temperature causes the degradation of the substantial reserves of carbon (C) stored in tundra soils, in which microbial processes play critical roles. Viruses are known to influence the soil C cycle by encoding auxiliary metabolic genes and infecting key microorganisms, but their regulation of microbial communities under climate warming remains unexplored. In this study, we evaluated the responses of viral communities for about 5 years of experimental warming at two depths (15 to 25 cm and 45 to 55 cm) in the Alaskan permafrost region. Our results showed that the viral community and functional gene composition and abundances (including viral functional genes related to replication, structure, infection, and lysis) were significantly influenced by environmental conditions such as total nitrogen (N), total C, and soil thawing duration. Although long-term warming did not impact the viral community composition at the two depths, some glycoside hydrolases encoded by viruses were more abundant at both depths of the warmed plots. With the continuous reduction of total C, viruses may alleviate methane release by altering infection strategies on methanogens. Importantly, viruses can adopt lysogenic and lytic lifestyles to manipulate microbial communities at different soil depths, respectively, which could be one of the major factors causing the differences in microbial responses to warming. This study provides a new ecological perspective on how viruses regulate the responses of microbes to warming at community and functional scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AMOC stability and diverging response to Arctic sea ice decline in two climate models

This study compares the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in two configurations of the Community Earth System Model with different horizontal resolution. In a suite of model experiments, we impose radiative imbalance at the ice surface, replicating a loss of sea ice cover comparable to that observed during 1979–2014, and we find dramatic differences in the AMOC response between the two models. In the lower-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by about one-third over the first 100 years, approaching a new quasi-equilibrium. By contrast, in the higher-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by ~10% during the first 20–30 years followed by a full recovery driven by invigorated deep water formation in the Labrador Sea and adjacent regions. We investigate these differences using a diagnostic AMOC stability indicator, which reflects the AMOC freshwater transport in and out of the basin and hence the strength of the basin-scale salt-advection feedback. This indicator suggests that the AMOC in the lower-resolution model is less stable and more sensitive to surface perturbations, as confirmed by hosing experiments mimicking Arctic freshening due to sea ice decline. Differences between the models’ mean states, including the Atlantic Ocean mean surface freshwater fluxes, control the differences in AMOC stability. Our results demonstrate that the AMOC stability indicator is indeed useful for evaluating AMOC sensitivity to perturbations. We emphasize that, despite the differences in the long-term adjustment, both models simulate a multidecadal AMOC weakening caused by Arctic sea ice decline, relevant to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Separating the Influences of Low-Latitude Warming and Sea Ice Loss on Northern Hemisphere Climate Change

Abstract Analyzing a multimodel ensemble of coupled climate model simulations forced with Arctic sea ice loss using a two-parameter pattern-scaling technique to remove the cross-coupling between low- and high-latitude responses, the sensitivity to high-latitude sea ice loss is isolated and contrasted to the sensitivity to low-latitude warming. Despite some differences in experimental design, the Northern Hemisphere near-surface atmospheric sensitivity to sea ice loss is found to be robust across models in the cold season; however, a larger intermodel spread is found at the surface in boreal summer, and in the free tropospheric circulation. In contrast, the sensitivity to low-latitude warming is most robust in the free troposphere and in the warm season, with more intermodel spread in the surface ocean and surface heat flux over the Northern Hemisphere. The robust signals associated with sea ice loss include upward turbulent and longwave heat fluxes where sea ice is lost, warming and freshening of the Arctic Ocean, warming of the eastern North Pacific Ocean relative to the western North Pacific with upward turbulent heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, and salinification of the shallow shelf seas of the Arctic Ocean alongside freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the robust signals associated with low-latitude warming include intensified ocean warming and upward latent heat fluxes near the western boundary currents, freshening of the Pacific Ocean, salinification of the North Atlantic, and downward sensible and longwave fluxes over the ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Removing the Effects of Tropical Dynamics from North Pacific Climate Variability

Teleconnections from the Tropics energize variations of the North Pacific climate, but detailed diagnosis of this relationship has proven difficult. Simple univariate methods, such as regression on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, may be inadequate since the key dynamical processes involved -- including ENSO diversity in the Tropics, re-emergence of mixed layer thermal anomalies, and oceanic Rossby wave propagation in the North Pacific -- have a variety of overlapping spatial and temporal scales. Here we use a multivariate Linear Inverse Model to quantify tropical and extra-tropical multi-scale dynamical contributions to North Pacific variability, in both observations and CMIP6 models. In observations, we find that the Tropics are responsible for almost half of the seasonal variance, and almost three quarters of the decadal variance, along the North American coast and within the subtropical front region northwest of Hawaii. SST anomalies that are generated by local dynamics within the Northeast Pacific have much shorter time scales, consistent with transient weather forcing by Aleutian low anomalies. Variability within the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region is considerably less impacted by the Tropics, on all time scales. Consequently, without tropical forcing the dominant pattern of North Pacific variability would be a KOE pattern, rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In contrast to observations, most CMIP6 historical simulations produce North Pacific variability that maximizes in the KOE region, with amplitude significantly higher than observed. Correspondingly, the simulated North Pacific in all CMIP6 models is shown to be relatively insensitive to the Tropics, with a dominant spatial pattern generally resembling the KOE pattern, not the PDO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Impacts of Convective Cloud Microphysics in NCAR CAM5

Here we improved the treatments of convective cloud microphysics in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) by 1) implementing new terminal velocity parameterizations for convective ice and snow particles, 2) adding graupel microphysics, 3) considering convective snow detrainment, and 4) enhancing rain initiation and generation rate in warm clouds. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of improved microphysics on simulated global climate, focusing on simulated cloud radiative forcing, graupel microphysics, convective cloud ice amount, and tropical precipitation. Compared to CAM5.3 with the default convective microphysics, the too-strong cloud shortwave radiative forcing due primarily to excessive convective cloud liquid is largely alleviated over the tropics and midlatitudes after rain initiation and generation rate is enhanced, in better agreement with the CERES-EBAF estimates. Geographic distributions of graupel occurrence are reasonably simulated over continents; whereas the graupel occurrence remains highly uncertain over the oceanic storm-track regions. When evaluated against the CloudSat–CALIPSO estimates, the overestimation of convective ice mass is alleviated with the improved convective ice microphysics, among which adding graupel microphysics and the accompanying increase in hydrometeor fall speed play the most important role. The probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity is sensitive to warm rain processes in convective clouds, and enhancement in warm rain production shifts the PDF toward heavier precipitation, which agrees better with the TRMM observations. Common biases of overestimating the light rain frequency and underestimating the heavy rain frequency in GCMs are mitigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗