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NASA NTRS2011

Model, Proxy and Isotopic Perspectives on the East African Humid Period

Both North and East Africa experienced more humid conditions during the early and mid-Holocene epoch (11,000-5000yr BP; 11-5 ka) relative to today. The North African Humid Period has been a major focus of paleoclimatic study, and represents a response of the hydrological cycle to the increase in boreal summer insolation and associated ocean, atmosphere and land surface feedbacks. Meanwhile, the mechanisms that caused the coeval East African Humid Period are poorly understood. Here, we use results from isotopeenabled coupled climate modeling experiments to investigate the cause of the East African Humid Period. The modeling results are interpreted alongside proxy records of both water balance and the isotopic composition of rainfall. Our simulations show that the orbitally-induced increase in dry season precipitation and the subsequent reduction in precipitation seasonality can explain the East African Humid Period, and this scenario agrees well with regional lake level and pollen paleoclimate data. Changes in zonal moisture flux from both the Atlantic and Indian Ocean account for the simulated increase in precipitation from June through November. Isotopic paleoclimate data and simulated changes in moisture source demonstrate that the western East African Rift Valley in particular experienced more humid conditions due to the influx of Atlantic moisture and enhanced convergence along the Congo Air Boundary. Our study demonstrates that zonal changes in moisture advection are an important determinant of climate variability in the East African region.

Tierney, Jessica E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Electric Field and Plasma Density Observations of Irregularities and Plasma Instabilities in the Low Latitude Ionosphere Gathered by the C/NOFS Satellite

The Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the C/NOFS equatorial satellite provides a unique data set which includes detailed measurements of irregularities associated with the equatorial ionosphere and in particular with spread-F depletions. We present vector AC electric field observations gathered on C/NOFS that address a variety of key questions regarding how plasma irregularities, from meter to kilometer scales, are created and evolve. The talk focuses on occasions where the ionosphere F-peak has been elevated above the C/NOFS satellite perigee of 400 km as solar activity has increased. In particular, during the equinox periods of 2011, the satellite consistently journeyed below the F-peak whenever the orbit was in the region of the South Atlantic anomaly after sunset. During these passes, data from the electric field and plasma density probes on the satellite have revealed two types of instabilities which had not previously been observed in the C/NOFS data set: The first is evidence for 400-500km-scale bottomside "undulations" that appear in the density and electric field data. In one case, these large scale waves are associated with a strong shear in the zonal E x B flow, as evidenced by variations in the meridional (outward) electric fields observed above and below the F-peak. These undulations are devoid of smaller scale structures in the early evening, yet appear at later local times along the same orbit associated with fully-developed spread-F with smaller scale structures. This suggests that they may be precursor waves for spread-F, driven by a collisional shear instability, following ideas advanced previously by researchers using data from the Jicamarca radar. A second result is the appearance of km-scale irregularities that are a common feature in the electric field and plasma density data that also appear when the satellite is near or below the F-peak at night. The vector electric field instrument on C/NOFS clearly shows that the electric field component of these waves is strongest in the zonal direction. These waves are strongly correlated with simultaneous observations of plasma density oscillations and appear both with, and without, evidence of larger-scale spread-F depletions. These km-scale, quasi-coherent waves strongly resemble the bottomside, sinusoidal irregularities reported in the Atmosphere Explorer satellite data set by Valladares et al. and are believed to cause scintillations of VHF radiowaves. We interpret these new observations in terms of fundamental plasma instabilities associated with the unstable, nighttime equatorial ionosphere.

Pfaff, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Expected Performance of Ozone Climate Data Records from Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler

The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS/LP) was launched on board of the Soumi NPP space platform in late October 2011. It provides ozone-profiling capability with high-vertical resolution from 60 Ian to cloud top. In this study, an end-to-end Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) of OMPS/LP ozone is discussed. The OSSE was developed at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. The "truth" for this OSSE is built by assimilating MLS profiles and OMI ozone columns, which is known to produce realistic three-dimensional ozone fields in the stratosphere and upper troposphere. OMPS/LP radiances were computed at tangent points computed by an appropriate orbital model. The OMPS/LP forward RT model, Instrument Models (IMs) and EDR retrieval model were introduced and pseudo-observations derived. The resultant synthetic OMPS/LP observations were evaluated against the "truth" and subsequently these observations were assimilated into GEOS-5. Comparison of this assimilated dataset with the "truth" enables comparisons of the likely uncertainties in 3-D analyses of OMPS/LP data. This study demonstrated the assimilation capabilities of OMPS/LP ozone in GEOS-5, with the monthly, zonal mean (O-A) smaller than 0.02ppmv at all levels, the nns(O-A) close to O.lppmv from 100hPa to 0.2hPa; and the mean(O-B) around the 0.02ppmv for all levels. The monthly zonal mean analysis generally agrees to within 2% of the truth, with larger differences of 2-4% (0.1-0.2ppmv) around 10hPa close to North Pole and in the tropical tropopause region, where the difference is above 20% due to the very low ozone concentrations. These OSSEs demonstrated that, within a single data assimilation system and the assumption that assimilated MLS observations provide a true rendition of the stratosphere, the OMPS/LP ozone data are likely to produce accurate analyses through much of the stratosphere. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the importance of the extremely high vertical resolution of the OMPS/LP ozone data

Xu, P. Q.↗
NASA NTRS2012

SBUV version 8.6 Retrieval Algorithm: Error Analysis and Validation Technique

SBUV version 8.6 algorithm was used to reprocess data from the Back Scattered Ultra Violet (BUV), the Solar Back Scattered Ultra Violet (SBUV) and a number of SBUV/2 instruments, which 'span a 41-year period from 1970 to 2011 (except a 5-year gap in the 1970s)[see Bhartia et al, 2012]. In the new version Daumont et al. [1992] ozone cross section were used, and new ozone [McPeters et ai, 2007] and cloud climatologies Doiner and Bhartia, 1995] were implemented. The algorithm uses the Optimum Estimation technique [Rodgers, 2000] to retrieve ozone profiles as ozone layer (partial column, DU) on 21 pressure layers. The corresponding total ozone values are calculated by summing ozone columns at individual layers. The algorithm is optimized to accurately retrieve monthly zonal mean (mzm) profiles rather than an individual profile, since it uses monthly zonal mean ozone climatology as the A Priori. Thus, the SBUV version 8.6 ozone dataset is better suited for long-term trend analysis and monitoring ozone changes rather than for studying short-term ozone variability. Here we discuss some characteristics of the SBUV algorithm and sources of error in the SBUV profile and total ozone retrievals. For the first time the Averaging Kernels, smoothing errors and weighting functions (or Jacobians) are included in the SBUV metadata. The Averaging Kernels (AK) represent the sensitivity of the retrieved profile to the true state and contain valuable information about the retrieval algorithm, such as Vertical Resolution, Degrees of Freedom for Signals (DFS) and Retrieval Efficiency [Rodgers, 2000]. Analysis of AK for mzm ozone profiles shows that the total number of DFS for ozone profiles varies from 4.4 to 5.5 out of 6-9 wavelengths used for retrieval. The number of wavelengths in turn depends on solar zenith angles. Between 25 and 0.5 hPa, where SBUV vertical resolution is the highest, DFS for individual layers are about 0.5.

Kramarova, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Robertson, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter

An initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The approach is based on the empirical singular vectors (ESVs) of a reduced-space statistically determined linear approximation of the full nonlinear CGCM. The initial ESV, extracted using 10 years (1990-99) of boreal winter hindcast data, has zonal wind anomalies over the western Indian Ocean, while the final ESV (at a forecast lead time of 10 days) reflects a propagation of the zonal wind anomalies to the east over the Maritime Continent an evolution that is characteristic of the MJO. A new set of ensemble hindcasts are produced for the boreal winter season from 1990 to 1999 in which the leading ESV provides the initial perturbations. The results are compared with those from a set of control hindcasts generated using random perturbations. It is shown that the ESV-based predictions have a systematically higher bivariate correlation skill in predicting the MJO compared to those using the random perturbations. Furthermore, the improvement in the skill depends on the phase of the MJO. The ESV is particularly effective in increasing the forecast skill during those phases of the MJO in which the control has low skill (with correlations increasing by as much as 0.2 at 20 25-day lead times), as well as during those times in which the MJO is weak.

Ham, Yoo-Geun↗
NASA NTRS2014

Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): an Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a probable offnominal suborbital/orbital atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, and validation of the SPEAD analysis tool. SPEAD is applicable for Earth or Mars, with the option for 3 or 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) trajectory propagation. The atmosphere and aerodynamics data are supplied in tables, for linear interpolation of up to 4 independent variables. The gravitation model can include up to 20 zonal harmonic coefficients. The modeling of a single motor is available and can be adapted to multiple motors. For thermal analysis, the aerodynamic radiative and free-molecular/continuum convective heating, black-body radiative cooling, conductive heat transfer between adjacent nodes, and node ablation are modeled. In a 6- DOF simulation, the local convective heating on a node is a function of Mach, angle-ofattack, and sideslip angle, and is dependent on 1) the location of the node in the spacecraft and its orientation to the flow modeled by an exposure factor, and 2) the geometries of the spacecraft and the node modeled by a heating factor and convective area. Node failure is evaluated using criteria based on melting temperature, reference heat load, g-load, or a combination of the above. The failure of a liquid propellant tank is evaluated based on burnout flux from nucleate boiling or excess internal pressure. Following a component failure, updates are made as needed to the spacecraft mass and aerodynamic properties, nodal exposure and heating factors, and nodal convective and conductive areas. This allows the trajectory to be propagated seamlessly in a single run, inclusive of the trajectories of components that have separated from the spacecraft. The node ablation simulates the decreasing mass and convective/reference areas, and variable heating factor. A built-in database provides the thermo-mechanical properties of For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a probable offnominal suborbital/orbital atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, and validation of the SPEAD analysis tool. SPEAD is applicable for Earth or Mars, with the option for 3 or 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) trajectory propagation. The atmosphere and aerodynamics data are supplied in tables, for linear interpolation of up to 4 independent variables. The gravitation model can include up to 20 zonal harmonic coefficients. The modeling of a single motor is available and can be adapted to multiple motors. For thermal analysis, the aerodynamic radiative and free-molecular/continuum convective heating, black-body radiative cooling, conductive heat transfer between adjacent nodes, and node ablation are modeled. In a 6- DOF simulation, the local convective heating on a node is a function of Mach, angle-ofattack, and sideslip angle, and is dependent on 1) the location of the node in the spacecraft and its orientation to the flow modeled by an exposure factor, and 2) the geometries of the spacecraft and the node modeled by a heating factor and convective area. Node failure is evaluated using criteria based on melting temperature, reference heat load, g-load, or a combination of the above. The failure of a liquid propellant tank is evaluated based on burnout flux from nucleate boiling or excess internal pressure. Following a component failure, updates are made as needed to the spacecraft mass and aerodynamic properties, nodal exposure and heating factors, and nodal convective and conductive areas. This allows the trajectory to be propagated seamlessly in a single run, inclusive of the trajectories of components that have separated from the spacecraft. The node ablation simulates the decreasing mass and convective/reference areas, and variable heating factor. A built-in database provides the thermo-mechanical properties of

Ling, Lisa↗
NASA NTRS2012

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a different number of input products. For the globe the calculated relative error estimate from this study is about 9%, which is also probably a slight overestimate. These tropical and global estimated bias errors provide one estimate of the current state of knowledge of the planet's mean precipitation.

Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)↗
NASA NTRS2013

On the Global Character of Overlap Between Low and High Clouds

The global character of overlap between low and high clouds is examined using active satellite sensors. Low-cloud fraction has a strong land-ocean contrast with oceanic values double those over land. Major low-cloud regimes include not only the eastern ocean boundary stratocumulus and shallow cumulus but also those associated with cold air outbreaks downwind of wintertime continents and land stratus over particular geographic areas. Globally, about 30% of low clouds are overlapped by high clouds. The overlap rate exhibits strong spatial variability ranging from higher than 90% in the tropics to less than 5% in subsidence areas and is anticorrelated with subsidence rate and low-cloud fraction. The zonal mean of vertical separation between cloud layers is never smaller than 5 km and its zonal variation closely follows that of tropopause height, implying a tight connection with tropopause dynamics. Possible impacts of cloud overlap on low clouds are discussed.

cloud overlap↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and Description of Models, Simulations and Climate Diagnostics

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of time slice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting composition changes and the associated radiative forcing. In this overview paper, we introduce the ACCMIP activity, the various simulations performed (with a requested set of 14) and the associated model output. The 16 ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions are responsible for a significant range across models, mostly in the case of ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to- model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results. However, models that are clear outliers are different enough from the other models to significantly affect their simulation of atmospheric chemistry.

humidity↗
NASA NTRS2013

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of the Quasi-Two Day Wave in the Northern Hemisphere Summer Mesosphere

This study uses global synoptic meteorological fields from a high-altitude data assimilation system to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the quasi-2 day wave (Q2DW) and migrating diurnal tide during the Northern Hemisphere summers of 2007, 2008, and 2009. By applying a 2-dimensional fast Fourier transform to meridional wind and temperature fields, we are able to identify Q2DW source regions and to diagnose propagation of Q2DW activity into the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. We find that Q2DW is comprised primarily of westward propagating zonal wavenumber 3 and wavenumber 4 components that originate from within baroclinically unstable regions along the equatorward flank of the summer midlatitude easterly jet. Amplitude variations of wavenumbers 3 and 4 tend to be anti-correlated throughout the summer, with wavenumber 3 maximizing in July and wavenumber 4 maximizing in late June and early August. Monthly mean Q2DW amplitudes between 30 50N latitude are largest when diurnal tidal amplitudes are smallest and vice versa. However, there is no evidence of any rapid amplification of the Q2DW via nonlinear interaction with the diurnal tide. Instead, variations of Q2DW amplitudes during July are closely linked to variations in the strength and location of the easterly jet core from one summer to the next, with a stronger jet producing larger Q2DW amplitudes. Linear instability model calculations based on the assimilated wind fields find fast growing zonal wavenumber 3 and 4 modes with periods near 2 days in the vicinity of the easterly jet.

Two day wave↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase transition of the equatorial zonal current from westerly to easterly.

GMAO↗
NASA NTRS2013

Connections Between the Spring Breakup of the Southern Hemisphere Polar Vortex, Stationary Waves, and Air-sea Roughness

A robust connection between the drag on surface-layer winds and the stratospheric circulation is demonstrated in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Specifically, an updated parameterization of roughness at the air-sea interface, in which surface roughness is increased for moderate wind speeds (4ms to 20ms), leads to a decrease in model biases in Southern Hemispheric ozone, polar cap temperature, stationary wave heat flux, and springtime vortex breakup. A dynamical mechanism is proposed whereby increased surface roughness leads to improved stationary waves. Increased surface roughness leads to anomalous eddy momentum flux convergence primarily in the Indian Ocean sector (where eddies are strongest climatologically) in September and October. The localization of the eddy momentum flux convergence anomaly in the Indian Ocean sector leads to a zonally asymmetric reduction in zonal wind and, by geostrophy, to a wavenumber-1 stationary wave pattern. This tropospheric stationary wave pattern leads to enhanced upwards wave activity entering the stratosphere. The net effect is an improved Southern Hemisphere vortex: the vortex breaks up earlier in spring (i.e., the spring late-breakup bias is partially ameliorated) yet is no weaker in mid-winter. More than half of the stratospheric biases appear to be related to the surface wind speed biases. As many other chemistry climate models use a similar scheme for their surface layer momentum exchange and have similar biases in the stratosphere, we expect that results from GEOSCCM may be relevant for other climate models.

air-sea interaction↗
NASA NTRS2013

Dynamics and Control of a Disordered System in Space

In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of N grains in orbit, with N greater than 10(exp 3). These grains can be large (Cubesat-size) or small (mm-size), and can be active, i.e., a fully equipped vehicle capable sensing their own position and attitude, and enabled with propulsion means, or entirely passive. The ultimate objective would be to study the behavior of the single grains and of large ensembles of grains in orbit and to identify ways to guide and control the shape of a cloud composed of these grains so that it can perform a useful function in space, for instance, as an element of an optical imaging system for astrophysical applications. This concept, in which the aperture does not need to be continuous and monolithic, would increase the aperture size several times compared to large NASA observatories such as ATLAST, allowing for a true Terrestrial Planet Imager that would be able to resolve exo-planet details and do meaningful spectroscopy on distant world. In the paper, we address the modeling and autonomous operation of a distributed assembly (the cloud) of large numbers of highly miniaturized space-borne elements (the grains). A multi-scale, multi-physics model is proposed of the dynamics of the cloud in orbit, as well as a control law for cloud shape maintenance, and preliminary simulation studies yield an estimate of the computational effort, indicating a scale factor of approximately N(exp 1.4) as a function of the number of grains. A granular spacecraft can be defined as a collection of a large number of space-borne elements (in the 1000s) designed and controlled such that a desirable collective behavior emerges, either from the interactions among neighboring grains, and/or between the grains and the environment. In this paper, each grain is considered to be a highly miniaturized spacecraft which has limited size and mass, hence it has limited actuation, limited propulsive capability, limited power, limited sensing, limited communication, limited computational resources, limited range of motion, limited lifetime, and may be expendable. The modeling and dynamics of clouds of vehicles is more challenging than with conventional vehicles because we are faced with a probabilistic vehicle composed of a large number of physically disconnected vehicles. First, different scales of motion occur simultaneously in a cloud: translations and rotations of the cloud as a whole (macro-dynamics), relative rotation and translation of one cloud member with respect to another (meso-dynamics), and individual cloud member dynamics (micro-dynamics). Second, the control design needs to be tolerant of the system complexity, of the system architecture (centralized vs. decentralized large scale system control) as well as robust to un-modeled dynamics and noise sources. Figure 1, top left, shows the kinematic parameters of a 1000 element cloud in orbit. The motion of the system is described with respect to a local vertical-local horizontal (LV-LH) orbiting reference frame (x,y,z)=F(sub ORF) of origin O(sub ORF) which rotates with mean motion omega and orbital semi-major axis R(sub 0). The orbital geometry at the initial time is defined in terms of its six orbital elements, and the orbital dynamics equation for point O(sub ORF) is propagated forward in time under the influence of the gravitational field of the primary and other external perturbations, described below. The origin of this frame coincides with the initial position of the center of mass of the system, and the coordinate axes are z along the local vertical, x toward the flight direction, and y in the orbit normal direction. The assumptions we used to model the dynamics are as follows: 1) The inertial frame is fixed at Earth's center. 2) The orbiting Frame ORF follows Keplerian orbit. 3) the cloud system dynamics is referred to ORF. 4) the attitude of each grain uses the principal body frame as body fixed frame. 5) the atmosphere is assumed to be rigidly rotating with the Earth. Regarding the grains forming the cloud: 1) each grain is modeled as a rigid body; 2) a simple attitude estimator provides attitude estimates, 3) a simple guidance logic commands the position and attitude of each grain, 4) a simple local feedback controller based on PD control of local states is used to stabilize the attitude of the vehicle. Regarding the cloud: 1) the cloud as a whole is modeled as an equivalent rigid body in orbit, and 2) an associated graph establishes agent connectivity and enables coupling between modes of motion at the micro and macro scales; 3) a simple guidance and estimation logic is modeled to estimate and command the attitude of this equivalent rigid body; 4) a cloud shape maintenance controller is based on the dynamics of a stable virtual truss in the orbiting frame. Regarding the environmental perturbations acting on the cloud: 1) a non-spherical gravity field including JO (Earth's spherical field) zonal component, J2 (Earth's oblateness) and J3 zonal components is implemented; 2) atmospheric drag is modeled with an exponential model; 3) solar pressure is modeled assuming the Sun is inertially fixed; and 4) the Earth's magnetic field is model using an equivalent dipole model. The equations of motion are written in a referential system with respect to the origin of the orbiting frame and the state is propagated forward in time using an incremental predictor-corrector scheme. A representative cloud with varying number of grains is simulated to identify the limitations in computation time as the number of grains grows. We derive a control law to track a desired surface in the ORF (equivalently to maintain a reference cloud shape) by defining an error from a desired surface shape, and designing a control law that is exponentially stable and reduces the tracking error to zero. Figure 1 (top right) shows a comparison of various requirements for simulation of single spacecraft vs. granular spacecraft, indicating the high degree of complexity that needs to be taken into consideration. The ORF components of control force required by one of the grains is, for this particular case, in the micro-Newton range. However, no attempt has been made yet to reconfigure (or re-orient) the cloud configuration internally, for which forces in the milli-Newton level are expected, depending on the time required to do the reconfiguration. Figure 1, bottom, shows the computation time as a function of the number of grains, indicating an order N(exp 1.43) scaling on a 8 Gb, 1067 MHz RAM MacOSX computer with a 3.06 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor. With this metric, the same simulation for a system of N=1000 grains would take 5.4 hours, and 146 hours (i.e., 6 days) for a system with N=10,000 grains. Therefore, efficient ways to simulate this complex system, where not only the time scales of natural system dynamics, but also the sampling times of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control are included, remain to be explored. Additional details on the cloud modeling, dynamics, and control will be described in the paper.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Seasonal Cycle of Water Vapour on Mars from Assimilation of Thermal Emission Spectrometer Data

We present for the first time an assimilation of Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) water vapour column data into a Mars global climate model (MGCM). We discuss the seasonal cycle of water vapour, the processes responsible for the observed water vapour distribution, and the cross-hemispheric water transport. The assimilation scheme is shown to be robust in producing consistent reanalyses, and the global water vapour column error is reduced to around 2-4 pr micron depending on season. Wave activity is shown to play an important role in the water vapour distribution, with topographically steered flows around the Hellas and Argyre basins acting to increase transport in these regions in all seasons. At high northern latitudes, zonal wavenumber 1 and 2 stationary waves during northern summer are responsible for spreading the sublimed water vapour away from the pole. Transport by the zonal wavenumber 2 waves occurs primarily to the west of Tharsis and Arabia Terra and, combined with the effects of western boundary currents, this leads to peak water vapour column abundances here as observed by numerous spacecraft. A net transport of water to the northern hemisphere over the course of one Mars year is calculated, primarily because of the large northwards flux of water vapour which occurs during the local dust storm around L(sub S) = 240-260deg. Finally, outlying frost deposits that surround the north polar cap are shown to be important in creating the peak water vapour column abundances observed during northern summer.

Thermal Emission Spectrometer↗
NASA NTRS2016

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Weather disturbances↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tropical Waves and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a 7-km Global Climate Simulation

This study investigates tropical waves and their role in driving a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like signal in stratospheric winds in a global 7-km-horizontal-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The Nature Run (NR) is a 2-year global mesoscale simulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5). In the tropics, there is evidence that the NR supports a broad range of convectively generated waves. The NR precipitation spectrum resembles the observed spectrum in many aspects, including the preference for westward-propagating waves. However, even with very high horizontal resolution and a healthy population of resolved waves, the zonal force provided by the resolved waves is still too low in the QBO region and parameterized gravity wave drag is the main driver of the NR QBO-like oscillation (NRQBO). The authors suggest that causes include coarse vertical resolution and excessive dissipation. Nevertheless, the very-high-resolution NR provides an opportunity to analyze the resolved wave forcing of the NR-QBO. In agreement with previous studies, large-scale Kelvin and small-scale waves contribute to the NRQBO driving in eastward shear zones and small-scale waves dominate the NR-QBO driving in westward shear zones. Waves with zonal wavelength,1000 km account for up to half of the small-scale (,3300 km) resolved wave forcing in eastward shear zones and up to 70% of the small-scale resolved wave forcing in westward shear zones of the NR-QBO.

NR-QBO↗
NASA NTRS2015

Seasonal Variability of Saturn's Tropospheric Temperatures, Winds and Para-H2 from Cassini Far-IR Spectroscopy

Far-IR 16-1000 micrometer spectra of Saturn's hydrogen-helium continuum measured by Cassini's Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) are inverted to construct a near-continuous record of upper tropospheric (70-700 mbar) temperatures and para-H2 fraction as a function of latitude, pressure and time for a third of a saturnian year (2004-2014, from northern winter to northern spring). The thermal field reveals evidence of reversing summertime asymmetries superimposed onto the belt/zone structure. The temperature structure is almost symmetric about the equator by 2014, with seasonal lag times that increase with depth and are qualitatively consistent with radiative climate models. Localised heating of the tropospheric hazes (100-250 mbar) create a distinct perturbation to the temperature profile that shifts in magnitude and location, declining in the autumn hemisphere and growing in the spring. Changes in the para-H2 (f(sub p)) distribution are subtle, with a 0.02-0.03 rise over the spring hemisphere (200-500 mbar) perturbed by (i) low-f(sub p) air advected by both the springtime storm of 2010 and equatorial upwelling; and (ii) subsidence of high-f(sub p) air at northern high latitudes, responsible for a developing north-south asymmetry in f(sub p). Conversely, the shifting asymmetry in the para-H2 disequilibrium primarily reflects the changing temperature structure (and hence the equilibrium distribution of f(sub p)), rather than actual changes in f(sub p) induced by chemical conversion or transport. CIRS results interpolated to the same point in the seasonal cycle as re-analysed Voyager-1 observations (early northern spring) show qualitative consistency from year to year (i.e., the same tropospheric asymmetries in temperature and f(sub p)), with the exception of the tropical tropopause near the equatorial zones and belts, where downward propagation of a cool temperature anomaly associated with Saturn's stratospheric oscillation could potentially perturb tropopause temperatures, para-H2 and winds. Quantitative differences between the Cassini and Voyager epochs suggest that the oscillation is not in phase with the seasonal cycle at these tropospheric depths (i.e., it should be described as quasi-periodic rather than 'semi annual'). Variability in the zonal wind field derived from latitudinal thermal gradients is small (less than 10 m/s per scale height near the tropopause) and mostly affects the broad retrograde jets, with the notable exception of large variability on the northern flank of the equatorial jet. The meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient, and hence the 'staircase of PV' associated with spatial variations in the vigour of vertical mixing, has varied over the course of the mission but maintained its overall shape. PV gradients in latitude and altitude are used to estimate the atmospheric refractive index for the propagation of stationary planetary (Rossby) waves, predicting that such wave activity would be confined to regions of real refractivity (tropical regions plus bands at 35-45 in both hemispheres). The penetration depth of these regions into the upper troposphere is temporally variable (potentially associated with stratification changes), whereas the latitudinal structure is largely unchanged over time (associated with the zonal jet system).

Fletcher, Leigh N.↗