Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variability prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Domain wall diode based on functionally graded Dzyaloshinskii–Moriya interaction

In this work, we present a general approach for studying the dynamics of domain walls in biaxial ferromagnetic stripes with functionally graded Dzyaloshinskii–Moriya interaction (DMI). By engineering the spatial profile of the DMI parameter we propose the concept of a diode, which implements filtering of domain walls of certain topological charge and helicity. We base our study on phenomenological Landau–Lifshitz–Gilbert equations with additional Zhang–Li spin-transfer terms using a collective variable approach. In the effective equations of motion the gradients of DMI play the role of a driving force which competes with current driving. All analytical predictions are confirmed by numerical simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Learning and Fast Adaptation for Grid Emergency Control via Deep Meta Reinforcement Learning

As power systems are undergoing a significant transformation with more uncertainties, less inertia and closer to operation limits, there is increasing risk of large outages. Thus, there is an imperative need to enhance grid emergency control to maintain system reliability and security. Towards this end, great progress has been made in developing deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based grid control solutions in recent years. However, existing DRL-based solutions have two main limitations: 1) they cannot handle well with a wide range of grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies; 2) they generally lack the ability to fast adapt to new grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies, limiting their applicability for real-world applications. Here, in this paper, we mitigate these limitations by developing a novel deep meta-reinforcement learning (DMRL) algorithm. The DMRL combines the meta strategy optimization together with DRL, and trains policies modulated by a latent space that can quickly adapt to new scenarios. We test the developed DMRL algorithm on the IEEE 300-bus system. We demonstrate fast adaptation of the meta-trained DRL polices with latent variables to new operating conditions and scenarios using the proposed method, which achieves superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art DRL and model predictive control (MPC) methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluating the Conservation of Energy Variables in Simulations of Deep Moist Convection

Abstract It is often assumed in parcel theory calculations, numerical models, and cumulus parameterizations that moist static energy (MSE) is adiabatically conserved. However, the adiabatic conservation of MSE is only approximate because of the assumption of hydrostatic balance. Two alternative variables are evaluated here: MSE − IB and MSE + KE, wherein IB is the path integral of buoyancy ( B ) and KE is kinetic energy. Both of these variables relax the hydrostatic assumption and are more precisely conserved than MSE. This article quantifies the errors that result from assuming that the aforementioned variables are conserved in large-eddy simulations (LES) of both disorganized and organized deep convection. Results show that both MSE − IB and MSE + KE better predict quantities along trajectories than MSE alone. MSE − IB is better conserved in isolated deep convection, whereas MSE − IB and MSE + KE perform comparably in squall-line simulations. These results are explained by differences between the pressure perturbation behavior of squall lines and isolated convection. Errors in updraft B diagnoses are universally minimized when MSE − IB is assumed to be adiabatically conserved, but only when moisture dependencies of heat capacity and temperature dependency of latent heating are accounted for. When less accurate latent heat and heat capacity formulae were used, MSE − IB yielded poorer B predictions than MSE due to compensating errors. Our results suggest that various applications would benefit from using either MSE − IB or MSE + KE instead of MSE with properly formulated heat capacities and latent heats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An explainable variational autoencoder model for three-dimensional acoustic emission source localization in hollow cylindrical structures

We introduce an explainable variational autoencoder for three-dimensional (3D) localization of acoustic emission sources in hollow cylindrical structures, with an unsupervised approach. This research capitalizes on multi-arrival waveforms generated by helical path propagation in cylindrical geometries to enable efficient two-receiver localization. By integrating the modal characteristics of Lamb modes under multi-path conditions, we demonstrate that two sets of time-of-arrival differences and peak amplitudes extracted from one receiver can serve as effective localization features. This initial approach identifies four potential source locations, highlighting the feasibility of two-receiver source localization using traditional feature extraction methods. However, direct extraction can be challenging when mode overlaps occur, complicating the localization process. To address this, our work proposes a novel waveform-based method. This method leverages the consistent dispersion characteristics within isotropic materials, where each unique combination of mode arrival times and peak amplitudes constructs a distinct waveform. This distinctiveness overcomes the ambiguities associated with mode overlaps, significantly enhancing the method’s precision and robustness. Our approach adopts a data-driven strategy for waveform-based localization using variational autoencoder (VAE). VAE discerns waveform patterns for localization, while also addressing data uncertainties. The VAE’s encoder and decoder networks capture the localization process and the source’s influence on waveform generation, respectively, guiding latent variables to segregate waveforms by source in the latent space. The design of the learning process focuses on specific localization characteristics to enhance result explainability. Localization predictions are generated by projecting test waveforms, not included in the training set, onto a trained latent space. The prediction is determined using a nearest-neighbor approach based on the closest latent representation of a source. Validation with pencil-lead-break tests on a metallic pipe confirmed our method’s effectiveness, achieving an averaged 3D localization accuracy of 0.84.

Lee, Guan-Wei↗

Advances in Modeling Capabilities for Critical Mineral Separation Technologies: A PrOMMiS Overview

This is an oral presentation at the TechConnect conference on the work developed by PrOMMiS. PrOMMiS builds on and extends capabilities developed within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES), Integrated Platform, and Water Treatment Technoeconomic Assessment Platform (WaterTAP), which have been successfully leveraged by other Department of Energy research areas. The open-source toolkit facilitates validation, reproducibility, and accountability, allowing for easy extension of the framework to other systems. This talk presents an overview of the PrOMMiS capabilities, including unit model library, advances in thermophysical properties models, and capital cost libraries for simulation and optimization of mineral processing technologies. The PrOMMiS applications include (1) conceptual design and superstructure optimization for screening different process configurations and identifying promising technologies; (2) dynamic modeling and optimization to enable the creation of digital twins; (3) surrogate modeling tools to leverage data when predictive thermodynamic models are not currently available; (4) technical risk reduction via uncertainty quantification and robust optimization to identify process designs that are robust to process variability and uncertainties; and (5) deployment of uncertainty quantification tools to maximize knowledge gained from experimental campaigns, while reducing the number of experiments required

critical minerals and materials↗

Quantifying the Effect of Economic Development Zones on Electrical Load Growth in Kentucky [Slides]

The Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet has recently undertaken a comprehensive effort to map and catalog potential economic development sites across the state. The purpose of this technical assistance is to quantify the potential impact of developing designated sites on Kentucky's electricity load growth, providing insights at both state and county level considering the next 10 years. This analysis should explicitly incorporate and address key project uncertainties by developing various load growth scenarios that account for development scale, site specificity, and sector variability. The need for a site-specific analysis comes from the understanding that conventional econometric (top-down) load forecasting models cannot sufficiently isolate or predict the discrete load increases resulting from the development of these unique and targeted economic sites.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Larval connectivity for European green crab management in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters

The presence of invasive species is a growing concern in coastal marine ecosystems because of their adverse effects on biodiversity. The European green crab Carcinus maenas (EGC) is a small crab inhabiting inshore areas. Although it is native to the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea, its distribution has expanded to North America, where it is an invasive species. Its main food sources are small invertebrate species that support valuable fisheries in the USA. The first presence of EGC in northern Washington was observed around 20 yr ago, along the Pacific Coast of the USA. Recently, EGC has been detected throughout the Salish Sea (Washington, USA, and British Columbia, Canada) wherein spread dynamics are unknown. The overall distribution of EGC is mainly driven by larval dispersal and, in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters, the assessment of EGC population dynamics is essential to understand its migration patterns and prevent its future expansion. To investigate the dispersal patterns of EGC larvae, a larval dispersal model was developed which couples a regional model of hydrodynamic circulation with an individual-based model of ichthyoplankton dynamics. Simulations were performed over 9 yr (2013-2022) to analyze average larval transport trends in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters, interannual variability of EGC larval connectivity, and the influence of larval behavior on connectivity patterns. Lastly, areas were identified to inform invasive species management moving forward. The prediction of likely sources and settlement locations of EGC larvae from the model will help improve the management of the population in the Salish Sea and surrounding waters.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Limits on X-Ray Polarization at the Core of Centaurus A as Observed with the Imaging X-Ray Polarimetry Explorer

We present measurements of the polarization of X-rays in the 2–8 keV band from the nucleus of the radio galaxy Centaurus A (Cen A), using a 100 ks observation from the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE). Nearly simultaneous observations of Cen A were also taken with the Swift, NuSTAR, and INTEGRAL observatories. No statistically significant degree of polarization is detected with IXPE. These observations have a minimum detectable polarization at 99% confidence (MDP 99 ) of 6.5% using a weighted, spectral model-independent calculation in the 2–8 keV band. The polarization angle ψ is consequently unconstrained. Spectral fitting across three orders of magnitude in X-ray energy (0.3–400 keV) demonstrates that the SED of Cen A is well described by a simple power law with moderate intrinsic absorption (N H ~ 10 23 cm -2 ) and a Fe Kα emission line, although a second unabsorbed power law is required to account for the observed spectrum at energies below 2 keV. This spectrum suggests that the reprocessing material responsible for this emission line is optically thin and distant from the central black hole. Our upper limits on the X-ray polarization are consistent with the predictions of Compton scattering, although the specific seed photon population responsible for the production of the X-rays cannot be identified. The low polarization degree, variability in the core emission, and the relative lack of variability in the Fe Kα emission line support a picture where electrons are accelerated in a region of highly disordered magnetic fields surrounding the innermost jet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Inundation and Sediment Supply Predict Annual but Not Centennial Carbon Accumulation in Tidal Wetlands Across Land‐Use Types

Despite growing interest in the contributions of tidal wetlands to natural climate solutions, data remain scarce on how land use affects their carbon accumulation rates (CAR). Additionally, environmental factors driving the large observed variability in CAR among sites are poorly understood. To address these knowledge gaps, we measured short-term (∼1 year) and long-term (∼100 years) CAR using feldspar marker horizons, 210 Pb profiles, and surface elevation tables from 39 sites in seven estuaries in Oregon and Washington, USA. Sites varied in wetland type (tidal marsh, tidal swamp, nontidal pasture), land-use history (reference, restored, and disturbed), and salinity (fresh to polyhaline). Across both timescales, CAR was lowest in disturbed pastures and highest in restored marshes, reflecting patterns in sediment accretion rates. Short-term CAR exceeded long-term CAR by approximately 50% on average and was only weakly correlated with long-term CAR, with differences among hydrogeomorphic setting. Short-term CAR was well predicted by summer inundation frequency and relative sediment load, together explaining 60% of variance, whereas long-term CAR was poorly predicted by contemporary environmental conditions. These findings highlight the importance of aligning predictor and response timescales when modeling blue carbon dynamics, and reinforce the climate mitigation potential of tidal wetland restoration.

land use and land cover change↗

Discovery of a Candidate Binary Supermassive Black Hole in a Periodic Quasar from Circumbinary Accretion Variability

Binary supermassive black holes (BSBHs) are expected to be a generic byproduct from hierarchical galaxy formation. The final coalescence of BSBHs is thought to be the loudest gravitational wave (GW) siren, yet no confirmed BSBH is known in the GW-dominated regime. While periodic quasars have been proposed as BSBH candidates, the physical origin of the periodicity has been largely uncertain. Here we report discovery of a periodicity (P=1607±7 days) at 99.95% significance (with a global p-value of ~10 –3 accounting for the look elsewhere effect) in the optical light curves of a redshift 1.53 quasar, SDSS J025214.67–002813.7. Combining archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey data with new, sensitive imaging from the Dark Energy Survey, the total ~20-yr time baseline spans ~4.6 cycles of the observed 4.4-yr (restframe 1.7-yr) periodicity. The light curves are best fit by a bursty model predicted by hydrodynamic simulations of circumbinary accretion disks. The periodicity is likely caused by accretion rate modulation by a milli-parsec BSBH emitting GWs, dynamically coupled to the circumbinary accretion disk. A bursty hydrodynamic variability model is statistically preferred over a smooth, sinusoidal model expected from relativistic Doppler boost, a kinematic effect proposed for PG1302–102. Furthermore, the frequency dependence of the variability amplitudes disfavors Doppler boost, lending independent support to the circumbinary accretion variability hypothesis. Given our detection rate of one BSBH candidate from circumbinary accretion variability out of 625 quasars, it suggests that future large, sensitive synoptic surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of candidate BSBHs from circumbinary accretion with direct implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Study on Closely Related Citrus CMMs based on Chemometrics and Prediction of Components-Targets-Diseases Network by Ingenuity Pathway Analysis

As the representatives of closely related Chinese medicinal materials (CMMs) originated from Rutaceae family, Aurantii fructus immaturus (AFI), Aurantii fructus (AF), Citri reticulatae pericarpium viride (CRPV), and Citri reticulatae pericarpium (CRP) have better functions in regulating qi and promoting gastrointestinal motility. However, differences in the quality of closely related Citrus CMMs have not yet been revealed until now. Herein, this study focused on the systematic differentiation and in-depth understanding of closely related Citrus CMMs by a strategy integrating chemometrics and network pharmacology. Determined by ultra performance liquid chromatography, the content of nine flavonoids showed obvious fluctuations in the decoction pieces from different species (Citrus aurantium Linnaeus and Citrus reticulate Blanco) with decreasing levels in the samples of ripe fruits. Decoction pieces from the different species and ripening stages were well distinguished by orthogonal projection to latent structure-discriminate analysis (OPLS-DA) and cluster analysis. As a result, four active components including narirutin, naringenin, hesperidin, and 3,5,6,7,8,3′,4′-heptemthoxyflavone were filtered out by variable importance for the projection (VIP) value (VIP > 1.0), which were regarded as chemotaxonomic markers. Furthermore, a components-targets-diseases network was constructed via ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA), and the correlations were predicted between four chemotaxonomic markers, 223 targets, and three diseases including colitis, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer. The obtained results will be of great significance for identifying closely related Citrus CMMs and conduce to improving the resource utilization of CMMs.

Mu, Qixuan↗

Model predictive current profile control in tokamaks by exploiting spatially moving electron cyclotron current drives

The plasma control systems in next-generation tokamaks like ITER will balance competing control objectives to achieve the desired level of performance in advanced scenarios while preventing magnetohydrodynamic instabilities and disruptions. During normal tokamak operation, the points of incidence of the electromagnetic waves generated by the electron cyclotron heating and current drives (EC H&CDs) are usually fixed in space. However, the points of incidence can be modified in real-time by changing the angles of the mirrors that reflect the EC H&CD waves. Altering the points of incidence, in turn, varies the ability of the plasma control system to regulate a plasma property. For instance, changing the EC H&CD wave incidence location may place the power demands necessary to achieve a particular plasma target within saturation limits. Therefore, using the EC H&CD deposition location, which is related to the EC H&CD mirror angle, as a supplementary controllable variable may facilitate access to a given target scenario. However, active scenario-control algorithms have not been designed so far to fully exploit this capability in real time. In this work, a model predictive controller that can handle actuation locations as control inputs is developed. In particular, the controller is designed to regulate both the auxiliary powers and the EC H&CD deposition locations in a pre-defined optimal sense to achieve the control objective of attaining and sustaining a target current profile. Further, the proposed controller is tested for a DIII-D tokamak scenario in nonlinear simulations using the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores current open questions in prediction in ungauged and unmonitored basins concerning top-down versus bottom-up approaches, tradeoffs between data available and input requirements, and the appropriate representation of catchment attributes as inputs to deep learning models. Modeling was done primarily with long short-term memory (LSTM) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)".Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code: - data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- error_analysis_attribute_and_groundwater_dir.zip - workflows for the extended error analysis by stream attribute and groundwater influenceData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2024streamdata, author = {Jared Willard and Fabio Ciulla and Helen Weierbach and Vipin Kumar and Charuleka Varadharajan}, title = {Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models"}, year = {2024}, doi = {10.15485/2448016}, publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository}, url = {https://doi.org/10.15485/2448016}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models". 2024. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of underlying surface, rainstorm and antecedent wetness condition on flood responses in small and medium sized watersheds in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Floods are becoming more frequent and are hard to control due to the shortage of water conservancy projects in small and medium sized basins, especially in developing regions. Understanding the hydrologic responses and estimated flood characteristics to storm events can help to predict flood disasters and form better effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, using observations of several representative watersheds and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models, we conducted data-driven analyses to examine the flood responding characteristics. We quantified the relative contributions of the influencing factors to the variation of each flood characteristic. Statistical analysis of the observations shows that the drainage area plays a key role in determining the distribution of lag time and peak discharge. Rainstorm variability has direct influence on floods, and typhoon-induced rainstorms with high total rainfall and rainfall intensity generate higher lag time, flood peak, unit discharge and runoff depth, but lower runoff coefficient. The ANN and PCR models accurately predicted the variations of flood features using the driving factors including physical geographical characteristics, rainstorm features, and antecedent condition. Physical geographic characteristics are key influential factors of lag time, flood peak and runoff coefficient, while the rainstorm features control the magnitude of unit discharge and runoff depth. These results indicate that floods are mainly affected by rainstorm features and physical geographic characteristics in the Yangtze River delta, and it might become more damaging with the increasing rainfall extremes and sprawling impervious surfaces in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Is Knowledge about Running Applications Helping Improve Runtime Prediction of HPC Jobs?

High-performance computing systems rely upon scheduling algorithms to achieve high utilization. These schedulers rely upon user estimates of job resource requirements, such as runtime, to determine optimal scheduling of incoming jobs. These user estimates, however, are prone to error. To mitigate this error, significant research has been directed at providing better estimates of job runtime, usually employing machine learning techniques. These techniques are dependent upon the input features selected. Among the possible features is the primary application used by the job. In a survey of more than 20 papers directed at improving runtime prediction, only four included primary application as an input feature. We focus this investigation specifically on the value of adding primary application as an input feature, and find that it does improve model performance, especially for jobs with longer runtimes, though this improvement varies based on the application used. We recommend further research to determine the cause of this variability as well as an optimal strategy for employing a mixture of models both including and not including primary application as a feature.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A vortex sheet based analytical model of the curled wake behind yawed wind turbines

Motivated by the need for compact descriptions of the evolution of non-classical wakes behind yawed wind turbines, we develop an analytical model to predict the shape of curled wakes. Interest in such modelling arises due to the potential of wake steering as a strategy for mitigating power reduction and unsteady loading of downstream turbines in wind farms. We first estimate the distribution of the shed vorticity at the wake edge due to both yaw offset and rotating blades. By considering the wake edge as an ideally thin vortex sheet, we describe its evolution in time moving with the flow. Vortex sheet equations are solved using a power series expansion method, and an approximate solution for the wake shape is obtained. The vortex sheet time evolution is then mapped into a spatial evolution by using a convection velocity. Apart from the wake shape, the lateral deflection of the wake including ground effects is modelled. Our results show that there exists a universal solution for the shape of curled wakes if suitable dimensionless variables are employed. For the case of turbulent boundary layer inflow, the decay of vortex sheet circulation due to turbulent diffusion is included. Finally, we modify the Gaussian wake model by incorporating the predicted shape and deflection of the curled wake, so that we can calculate the wake profiles behind yawed turbines. Model predictions are validated against large-eddy simulations and laboratory experiments for turbines with various operating conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Continuous-time probabilistic models for longitudinal electronic health records

Analysis of longitudinal Electronic Health Record (EHR) data is an important goal for precision medicine. Difficulty in applying Machine Learning (ML) methods, either predictive or unsupervised, stems in part from the heterogeneity and irregular sampling of EHR data. Here, we present an unsupervised probabilistic model that captures nonlinear relationships between variables over continuous-time. This method works with arbitrary sampling patterns and captures the joint probability distribution between variable measurements and the time intervals between them. Inference algorithms are derived that can be used to evaluate the likelihood of future using under a trained model. As an example, we consider data from the United States Veterans Health Administration (VHA) in the areas of diabetes and depression. Likelihood ratio maps are produced showing the likelihood of risk for moderate-severe vs minimal depression as measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗