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Results for “uncertainty Quantification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,135 records · Page 63
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Learning from learning machines: improving the predictive power of energy-water-land nexus models with insights from complex measured and simulated data

Focal Area(s): Insights gleaned from complex data (observed and simulated) using AI; Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components, including physics- and knowledge-informed models; Energy-water-land nexus and integrated energy systems – models of MultiSector dynamics. Science Challenge: Scientific communities are in need of tools for the computational integration of physics-based models, experimental data, and empirical/observational studies across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales to explore and meet EESSD grand challenges. We require AI algorithms for the discovery of process-drivers in the Earth-energy-human system and to link them with complex measured and simulated data. We aim to understand the energy-water-land nexus, particularly under extreme forcing scenarios and rare events, leveraging scale-aware AI process models, including probabilistic uncertainties, and benefiting from the emerging 5G-enabled landscape-scale sensing and edge computing capabilities. These models are needed to identify instabilities and tipping points that manifest extreme system behaviors with consequences for integrated energy systems and the environment. This work requires fundamental advances in uncertainty quantification, in particular, to identify and model unlikely but catastrophic outliers. Specifically, we need models that are interpretable to domain scientists and, essentially, explainable to public and private stake holders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to extend and understand the sources and limits of water cycle predictability on subseasonal-to-decadal timescales in the Earth system

This white paper provides initial insight on how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), including interpretability and explainable AI (XAI) methods, can be leveraged to glean insight from complex data for a paradigm-changing improvement in Earth system predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) and seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) timescales. The application of AI to extend and improve predictability, in combination with causal inference and uncertainty quantification, could lead to a transformative understanding of the integrative water cycle and associated extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Process-based Neural Network to Forecast Vegetation Dynamics

This white paper calls for an AI-based emulator of DOE’s dynamic vegetation model that is computationally efficient and accommodates/parameterizes the governing processes built in the model. This AI-based emulator is needed for model calibration, sensitivity analysis, prediction, uncertainty quantification, and decision making. This AI-based emulator will incorporate physics and biological information in the form of conservation laws and constitutive relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind Energy Forecasting with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Siemens Energy, Inc. (Siemens) to develop a wind resource forecasting tool. LLNL was to develop an independent high-resolution mesoscale modeling capability forecasting tool that could be implemented in conjunction with existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide forecasting of wind resources using local observations of winds and temperature. Research with LLNL’s state-of-the-art large-eddy simulation meteorological prediction model, based on the community WRF model and innovative turbulence parameterizations, would improve that model’s applicability to large wind farms offshore and in complex terrain. The modeling capability would include uncertainty quantification. Finally, the application of the modeling tool and existing global climate change predictions would enable the delineation of the likely effects of climate change on wind resources. Siemens was to provide high time resolution hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams, including temperature profiles from wind farms, for LLNL to incorporate into the modeling system, to validate and tune this forecasting model for their locations of interest. These data streams would also be used for longer-term studies of correlations of wind resources to climate oscillations to indicate how long-term climate change trends may affect the available wind resource. Siemens would also provide information and observations of turbine wakes for incorporation into the modeling tool. By implementing state-of-the-art turbulence parameterizations into a simulation model and/or ensembles of simulation models, and by integrating real-time hub height wind speed and other meteorological datastreams from wind farms into that model or ensemble of models, LLNL would develop a forecasting tool that could be implemented by Siemens as an add-on to existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide owners with useful resource forecasting. The desired outcome was that the accuracy level of the output would be sufficient to substantiate power output commitments. The final deliverable for this work would consist of a document outlining the algorithms and software tools that could be integrated into Siemens Wind Park Supervisor.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thoughts on Analyzing Neutron Multiplicity Data

Bayesian methods offer many advantages for analyzing neutron multiplicity data. Ideally one would make nonparametric estimates of the the posterior distributions, the probabilities - given the data - for unknowns to take on particular values. Once one has the posterior, uncertainty quantification is very natural. We describe how different ways of formulating the statistical theory of fission chains are mathematically equivalent. When confronted with actual data and the burden of finite statistics, different methods of expressing the theory offer advantages for understanding the underlying source parameters from an information theory standpoint.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Updating Fission Yield Data for Applications (Summary Report)

The First Research Coordination Meeting of the CRP on “Updating Fission Yield Data for Applications” was held by video conference from 31 August to 4 September 2020 with more than 50 international experts from 16 countries attending the meeting. The CRP is devoted to evaluation efforts of cumulative and independent fission yields for incident energies from the thermal point up to 14 MeV on actinide targets. Produced fission yield evaluations should include full uncertainty quantification and are expected to combine available experimental data and state-of-art model information. Four working groups were created within the collaboration: 1) Availability of experimental fission product yield data for evaluations; 2) New fission product yield experimental data; 3) Fission product yield evaluation; and 4) Fission product yield validation. Technical discussions and the resulting work plan of the Coordinated Research Programme are summarized in this report.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Framework for Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning for Geological Carbon Sequestration (DIAL-GCS) (Final Report)

This project aimed to develop and demonstrate a Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning framework for geologic carbon sequestration projects (DIAL-GCS). DIAL-GCS is an intelligence monitoring system (IMS) for automating GCS closed-loop management by leveraging recent developments in machine learning technologies, complex event processing (CEP), and reduced-order modeling. The safe and efficient operation of GCS repositories requires integrated monitoring to track the injected CO¬2 as it moves within a storage reservoir. GCS projects are data intensive, as a result of proliferation of digital instrumentation and smart-sensing technologies. GCS projects are also resource intensive, often requiring multidisciplinary teams performing different monitoring, verification, accounting (MVA) tasks throughout the lifecycle of a project to ensure secure containment of injected CO2. The success of GCS thus depends in a large part on our ability to access, assimilate, and analyze heterogeneous data and information sources in a timely manner. This project included a number of meaningful and necessary tasks to transform the human domain knowledge into machine-interpretable rules for automating knowledge extraction and discovery in GCS. The specific technical objectives of the proposed DIAL-GCS project were to develop an ontology-driven GCS data management module for storing, querying, and exchanging GCS data (both historic and live sensor data) from multiple sources and in heterogeneous formats. Incorporate a CEP engine for detecting abnormal situations by seamlessly combining expert knowledge, rule-based reasoning, and machine learning. Enable uncertainty quantification and predictive analytics using a combination of coupled-process modeling, AI/ML methods, and reduced-order modeling, and integrate and demonstrate the system’s capabilities with both real and simulated data. As far as we know, this is one of the first projects aimed to develop intelligent monitoring systems (IMS) targeting the GCS. Under this project, the team had developed a large number of web applications and scientific algorithms that contribute the main theme of intelligent monitoring. The team has published more than a dozen peer reviewed papers and disseminated the research results at multiple technical meetings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Summary Report of the 1st RCM of the CRP on the Updating Fission Yield Data for Applications

The First Research Coordination Meeting of the CRP on “Updating Fission Yield Data for Applications” was held by video conference from 31 August to 4 September 2020 with more than 50 international experts from 16 countries attending the meeting. The CRP is devoted to evaluation efforts of cumulative and independent fission yields for incident energies from the thermal point up to 14 MeV on actinide targets. Produced fission yield evaluations should include full uncertainty quantification and are expected to combine available experimental data and state-of-art model information. Four working groups were created within the collaboration: 1) Availability of experimental fission product yield data for evaluations; 2) New fission product yield experimental data; 3) Fission product yield evaluation; and 4) Fission product yield validation. Technical discussions and the resulting work plan of the Coordinated Research Programme are summarized in this report.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Generator Failures under Extreme Temperature Scenarios in Power Systems

This report summarizes work done under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) Program. The specific task of interest described in this report is focused on sensitivity analysis of scenarios involving failures of both wind turbines and thermal generators under extreme cold-weather temperature conditions as would be observed in a Polar Vortex event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

CIS Project 22359, Final Technical Report. Discretized Posterior Approximation in High Dimensions

Our primary aim in this work is to understand how to efficiently obtain reliable uncertainty quantification in automatic learning algorithms with limited training datasets. Standard approaches rely on cross-validation to tune hyper parameters. Unfortunately, when our datasets are too small, holdout datasets become unreliable—albeit unbiased—measures of prediction quality due to the lack of adequate sample size. We should not place confidence in holdout estimators under conditions wherein the sample variance is both large and unknown. More poigniantly, our training experiments on limited data (Duersch and Catanach, 2021) show that even if we could improve estimator quality under these conditions, the typical training trajectory may never even encounter generalizable models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

AXIOM Unfold 0.7.0, Users Manual

The AXIOM-Unfold application is a computational code for performing spectral unfolds along with uncertainty quantification of the photon spectrum. While this code was principally designed for spectral unfolds on the Saturn source, it is also relevant to other radiation sources such as Pithon. This code is a component of the AXIOM project which was undertaken in order to measure the time-resolved spectrum of the Saturn source; to support this, the AXIOM-Unfold code is able to process time-dependent dose measurements in order to obtain a time-resolved spectrum. This manual contains a full description of the algorithms used by the method. The code features are fully documented along with several worked examples.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An X-ray Intensity Operations Monitor (AXIOM) (Final LDRD Project Report)

The Saturn accelerator has historically lacked the capability to measure time-resolved spectra for its 3-ring bremsstrahlung x-ray source. This project aimed to create a spectrometer called AXIOM to provide this capability. The project had three major development pillars: hardware, simulation, and unfold code. The hardware consists of a ring of 24 detectors around an existing x-ray pinhole camera. The diagnostic was fielded on two shots at Saturn and over 100 shots at the TriMeV accelerator at Idaho Accelerator Center. A new Saturn x-ray environment simulation was created using measured data to validate. This simulation allows for timeresolved spectra computation to compare the experimental results. The AXIOM-Unfold code is a new parametric unfold code using modern global optimizers and uncertainty quantification. The code was written in Python, uses Gitlab version control and issue tracking, and has been developed with long term code support and maintenance in mind.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Assisted Safety Modeling and Analysis of Advanced Reactors

With the advances in computational power and numerical methods, analysts can now rely on first-principle simulations to predict ultra-fine details in a variety of applications. Advances in machine learning (ML) have produced algorithms that can now learn high-level abstractions via hierarchical models. This project aims to leverage advances in ML techniques and the available high-resolution simulation data to develop a novel modeling and simulation (M\&S) methodology for reactor safety analysis. While application-agnostic ML techniques are available, complex physics constraints need to be incorporated into ML techniques to build ML-based closures for computationally efficient predictive simulations. This project intends to develop a physics-guided data-driven multi-scale methodology for M\&S of advanced reactors. The project focuses on thermal fluid (T/F) phenomena, which play major roles in advanced reactor safety. Specifically, we propose a data-driven coarse-mesh turbulence model based on local flow features for the transient analysis of thermal mixing and stratification in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). The model has a coarse-mesh setup to ensure computational efficiency, while it is trained by fine-mesh computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data with Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence model to ensure accuracy. Three different neural networks are developed and tested for loss-of-flow transients in the hot pool of SFR, i.e. the densely connected convolutional neural network (DCNN), long-short-term-memory network based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD-LSTM), and the DCNN informed by LSTM (DCNN-LSTM). The performances of these three neural networks are evaluated based on baseline models. The DCNN-LSTM model has been chosen for further hyperparameter optimization. Furthermore, based on a simplified two-dimensional case, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the developed ML-based closure are investigated with three methods, i.e. Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, and Bayesian neural network. The developed ML-based turbulent viscosity closure relation based on deep ensemble is then integrated into the system analysis module SAM and serves as a term in the conservation equations. Such a SAM-ML based procedure guarantees that the obtained results are consistent with the physical constraints of the thermal-fluid system. The SAM-ML simulation on the same loss-of-flow transient showed comparable accuracy with the CFD simulation but with a much coarser mesh setup. Last but not least, the ML-based closure improvement with the support of higher-fidelity data from large eddy simulation (LES) is discussed. As a first step towards this direction, a baseline LES simulation is performed to obtain comparable data with RANS results. Based on the early results, future investigation on further improving the ML-based closure is discussed. We believe the developed approach that combines scientific machine learning with nuclear system analysis code can benefit the advanced reactor community as more accurate safety analyses will better characterize reactor safety margins and reduce licensing efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Computational Materials and Mechanical Modeling for Additive Manufacturing of Alloys with Graded Structure Used in Fossil Fuel Power Plants

Wire-arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) has demonstrated its unique capability of producing large-size alloy components with a significantly reduced fabrication time and enhanced geometry design freedom. In this project, the team has developed an ICME (Integrated Computational Materials Engineering) modeling framework, which supports the WAAM of the AUSC (Advanced Ultra-Supercritical) power plant components. The manufacturing design has been applied to Inconel 740H, steel P91, as well as the dissimilar alloy components between steel P91 and Inconel 740H. The ICME model framework is developed by considering two types of modeling. First, mechanistic modeling has been applied to control the printing quality and understand the sequence of the dissimilar printing of the wall structure. The following models have been included in the developed ICME framework: finite element thermal model, grain structure model, residual stress simulation, crystal plasticity model, CALPHAD-based precipitation kinetic model, phase stability prediction, thermal expansion predictive model, and heuristic creep model. Secondary, a physics-based machine learning model has also been developed based on the ICME model structure. The machine learning model development is based on the ICME model prediction with calibration of the experiments. In addition, the WAAM has been utilized as a high-throughput experimental tool rapidly generating a gradient of alloy composition to facilitate experimental database generation for process-structure-property relationships. Such a database directly supported the ICME-enhanced machine learning, which further assisted in intermediate composition block design between P91 and 740H. A high-throughput screening study of the oxidation resistance has been performed based on such high-throughput experimentation. Based on the computational design, several dissimilar alloy manufacturing with post-heat treatment have been performed with a comprehensive evaluation of mechanical performance, including hardness mapping, yield strength, creep resistance. In this project, the single component of P91 and 740H processed by WAAM after heat treatment designed by ICME has demonstrated higher performance in yield strength and creep resistance than the wrought materials. The P91 sample prepared by WAAM with ICME-designed heat treatment performs better than P92 in creep resistance. The designed graded alloy printing with intermediate block shows a promising performance that exceeds the traditional welding. Moreover, the current research indicates the high need for location-specific design analysis with uncertainty quantification, an important topic that deserves more dedicated research. The achievement of this project demonstrated the promising future of WAAM in structural alloy manufacturing for energy power plant development. Successful printing requires synergetic efforts made by manufacturing, mechanical, and materials sciences.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Progress report on analytic and numerical studies of x-ray-induced impulse

In a variety of high-energy-density (HED) systems, x-rays of a given energy are used to generate shockwaves, bulk motion, and impulse in materials. As radiation energy is deposited within the material, the material is heated. The number of photons of a certain wavelength absorbed is determined by the spectral intensity of the radiation and the material’s opacity evaluated at that wavelength. This heating results in a pressure increase dictated by the material’s equation of state. Depending on the intensity of the absorbed radiation, it may also cause the material to change phase into a liquid, gas, or plasma. The increased pressure drives the heated surface layer to blow off, imparting impulse and sending a compressive wave into the bulk of the material. Additionally, the compression wave interacts with the solid boundary of the material, resulting in a tensile wave that may cause the material to spall. The impulse generated by the deposition of x-ray energy within the sample can be modeled using purely analytical methods, e.g. the Bethe, Bade, Averell, and Yost (BBAY) model. However, the blow-off process is rather complicated, and proper modeling efforts must account for material ejected by spallation, vaporization, jetting, and plasma ablation. For this reason, analytical models have an unclosed term describing the final energy of the blown-off material Ef(z). Prior modeling efforts have arbitrarily fixed this at some value or modeled it using a limiting set of thermodynamic assumptions. The work we are currently performing uses validated simulations using sophisticated photon transport, equation of state, and strength models/data to provide a fit for Ef(z) that is useful for predictive calculation of impulse. We will apply our methodology and show results for different materials and x-ray sources. This work is particularly useful for the design of experiments studying x-ray impulse generation. The present report is outlined as follows. Section 1.2 describes a series of HED experiments investigating x-ray-generated impulse in materials. Section 1.3 describes the computational approach we employ in this study, and presents validation results against the aforementioned experiments. Section 1.4 introduces analytical models for impulse generation, as well as our method for utilizing impulse from simulations to close the models. We discuss the concept of impulse-spectrum sensitivity, it’s application to uncertainty quantification, and derive a very useful analytical expression for it in 1.5. We then summarize recent progress in this project and discuss future work in section 1.6.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

MFIX DEM Enhancement for Industry-Relevant Flows (Final Report)

The overall goal of this two-phase project is to implement performance improvements of the Multiphase Flow with Interphase Exchanges (MFIX) Discrete Element Model (DEM) code that enable a transformative shift for industrial use. Prior to this effort, the largest simulations performed using MFIX are O(10 7 ) particles. This falls short of the O(10 9 ) particle simulations that must be completed on a timescale of days or weeks (vs. months or years) to enable simulations with physically-relevant domain sizes to be incorporated into industrial design cycles within five years. This was accomplished by tailoring best-in-class practices to bear on the unique challenges posed by the MFIX-DEM algorithm and code base. Scientific simulations (e.g., in cosmology, turbulent combustion) routinely use massively parallel computing to update far more particles in short wall clock times. Results from Phase 1 (1.5 years in duration) indicated significant gains in speed were possible for a wide range of benchmark cases. Moreover, a survey sent to >35 companies indicates that the timing is ideal for such an enhanced tool, with >80% of the respondents indicating that DEM is already value-added or will be within the next 5 years, and >70% of the respondents indicating that improved speed is the top computational priority. In Phase 2 (3.5 years in duration), the two major barriers that hinder industry from effectively using multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to cut costs and improve performance, namely computational overhead and confidence in predictions, continued to be addressed. Regarding the former, the results from Phase 1 to guide the effort, with enhancements focused on an improved time-stepping algorithm and particle sorting. Four target problems of 1 billion particles each and increasing complexity were identified: homogeneous cooling, tumbler with continuous particle size distribution, discharge from a rectangular hopper and a cylindrical riser. Each of these were successfully simulated for relevant time scales (on order of seconds) using less than 24 hours of wall clock time. These represent the first 1-billion particle DEM simulations performed with MFIX, namely using the MFIX-Exa code. This code is currently under development at NETL in collaboration with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Regarding the second barrier on predictive uncertainty, experiments from Phase 1 (interacting nozzles - hydrodynamics only) and Phase 2 (very small-scale segregation experiments) were used to demonstrate the ability of two simplified approaches to uncertainty quantification (UQ). By limiting the number of particles, UQ based on the simplified treatment was compared to standard UQ, which was shown to have much higher computational demands. Experiments were also performed on a pilot-scale stripper unit to provide validation data for future CFD-DEM simulations and UQ.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

White paper on Verification and Validation for Cyber Emulation Models

All disciplines that use models to predict the behavior of real-world systems need to determine the accuracy of the models’ results. Techniques for verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) focus on improving the credibility of computational models and assessing their predictive capability. VVUQ emphasizes rigorous evaluation of models and how they are applied to improve understanding of model limitations and quantify the accuracy of model predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗