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A distributed voltage inference framework for cyber-physical attacks detection and localization in active distribution grids

The transition to active distribution grids with real-time monitoring and control depends on the proliferation of advanced communication networks and devices. This paradigm shift towards a cyber-physical architecture also introduces new vulnerabilities for adversaries to exploit and launch sophisticated cyber-physical attacks targeting grid observability. Current research highlights the challenges in distinguishing attacks on voltage phasor or nodal injection measurements and isolating multi-source attack locations in a multiphase distribution grid. The attack detection and localization methods in literature face accuracy issues, applications across diverse attack scenarios, or scalability limits. Here, to bridge these gaps, this paper proposes a distributed Voltage Inference framework for real-time detection and localization of cyber-physical attacks, addressing scalability, adaptability, and accuracy challenges in state-of-the-art methods. The proposed methodology leverages the distributed nature of the Voltage Inference framework through a two-step process of prediction and correction, together with a tractable graph partitioning approach, providing a reliable solution to identify compromised measurement sources and facilitate isolation. Extensive testing on IEEE 13 and 123-node distribution feeders underscores the algorithm’s efficacy, enhancing the security and resilience of active distribution grids against evolving cyber threats. Additionally, Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) implementation validates the proposed strategy’s practical applicability in real-world scenarios.

active distribution grids↗

Solid, structured composite neutron detectors with high dynamic range capability

Neutron detectors are essential across disciplines such as fundamental science, nuclear security, safeguards, and civilian applications. While 3 He-filled gas proportional counters have long been revered for their efficacy in detecting thermal neutrons and praised for their efficiency, neutron/gamma discrimination, and stability, the scarcity of 3He has spurred a search for alternatives. Here, we explore a solid structured scintillating particle composite (SPC) consisting of 6 Li-containing scintillating glass particles within an acrylic matrix as a neutron detector for high dynamic range applications. We show for the first time that an SPC neutron detector can boast an intrinsic detection efficiency of 0.261% for pure 252 Cf fission neutrons and an overall neutron detection efficiency of (0.546 ± 0.003)% at the Neutron Free-in-Air facility while being able to function in an intense gamma-ray environment. We also show that the SPC neutron detector supports fast neutron capture times and enables a dual-readout scheme that extends the detector dynamic range to high incident neutron fluxes. A scalable fabrication process allows for tailoring the SPC detector properties to the requirements of specific applications. Good agreement is found between the experimental results taken with a National Institute of Standards and Technology traceable 252 Cf source and the coupled MCNP6 and optical-ray-tracing simulations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Cyber-Informed Engineering Case Study of an Integrated Hydrogen Generation Plant

Strategies for securing digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems within the nuclear industry are provided by multiple standards and guidance documents. However, since selection and use of security controls outlined in these documents are frequently only considered during or after installation, there are often limitations on their use, such as technological constraints related to design or operation. Furthermore, alternative controls intended to provide the same or similar security countermeasure as the primary control may also be infeasible at these stages, leaving the I&C system vulnerable to cyber-attacks. The limitations associated with ‘bolting on’ security controls late in the systems engineering lifecycle can be reduced by integrating Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) into the process. This paper evaluates the use of CIE during the high-level design stage of a hydrogen generation project where heat and electricity are provided by a nuclear power plant. Applying CIE to this project highlighted potential cyber vulnerabilities of the initial design, leading to recommendations for process flow and I&C system design modifications to reduce, and at times eliminate, the risk from both deliberate and unintentional cyber incidents.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL National Security Test Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at two locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) National Security Test Range (NSTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files, are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradradioactive chemicals modeled. And finally, the calculations assume all 12 tests will be performed at the same place at both locations, and all 11 radioactive material types will be used for each test. This is conservative because it is anticipated that no more than two material types will be used per test.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL National Security Test Range

This assessment uses screening level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at two locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) National Security Test Range (NSTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface soil impacts were calculated with the computer program Mixing-Cell Model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files, are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Repair and Utilization of the Kratos XSAM 800 X-Ray Photoelectron Spectrometer (XPS)

The objectives for this summer faculty fellowship were first to repair the Kratos XSAM 800 X-ray Photoelectron Spectrometer (XPS) and then to utilize the instrument to participate in ongoing research projects at KSC and in the researcher's own laboratory at UCF. The first 6 weeks were used in repairing the instrument. Working both alone and with the Kratos service engineer, a number of hardware problems, largely associated with the sample stage control system, were corrected. Defective parts were identified and fixed in the computer driver boards, the stage power supply, and the driver interface. The power supply was completely replaced. After four weeks of work, the instrument was functional. This occurred on a Wednesday. The following Friday the instrument had to be completely shut down because the power to the O & C Building was to be turned off. The instrument was properly secured. On Monday, the instrument was powered up and the original problems returned. After another 2 weeks of work, a software problem was identified. This problem caused the computer to use a defective port for the sample stage control. It was circumvented by rewriting the startup routine. The final 3 weeks of the fellowship were spent using the XPS to analyze samples being studied in the Langley materials project (Martha Williams) and a catalyst project (Dr. Orlando Melendez). During this time, several sample analysis requests from other groups at KSC also came in and those samples were run as well. The summer faculty fellowship also allowed many contacts to be made. After meeting with the sensors group, two projects were identified for collaboration and white papers are being prepared. One project aims to develop small, very sensitive hydrogen detectors and the other to develop a broad area, easily monitored, zero power consumption hydrogen detector. In addition to the work mentioned above, the XPS was utilized in a study underway in Dr. Hampton's laboratory at UCF.

Hampton, Michael D.↗

Geodata Modeling and Query in Geographic Information Systems

Geographic information systems (GIS) deal with collecting, modeling, man- aging, analyzing, and integrating spatial (locational) and non-spatial (attribute) data required for geographic applications. Examples of spatial data are digital maps, administrative boundaries, road networks, and those of non-spatial data are census counts, land elevations and soil characteristics. GIS shares common areas with a number of other disciplines such as computer- aided design, computer cartography, database management, and remote sensing. None of these disciplines however, can by themselves fully meet the requirements of a GIS application. Examples of such requirements include: the ability to use locational data to produce high quality plots, perform complex operations such as network analysis, enable spatial searching and overlay operations, support spatial analysis and modeling, and provide data management functions such as efficient storage, retrieval, and modification of large datasets; independence, integrity, and security of data; and concurrent access to multiple users. It is on the data management issues that we devote our discussions in this monograph. Traditionally, database management technology have been developed for business applications. Such applications require, among other things, capturing the data requirements of high-level business functions and developing machine- level implementations; supporting multiple views of data and yet providing integration that would minimize redundancy and maintain data integrity and security; providing a high-level language for data definition and manipulation; allowing concurrent access to multiple users; and processing user transactions in an efficient manner. The demands on database management systems have been for speed, reliability, efficiency, cost effectiveness, and user-friendliness. Significant progress have been made in all of these areas over the last two decades to the point that many generalized database platforms are now available for developing data intensive applications that run in real-time. While continuous improvement is still being made at a very fast-paced and competitive rate, new application areas such as computer aided design, image processing, VLSI design, and GIS have been identified by many as the next generation of database applications. These new application areas pose serious challenges to the currently available database technology. At the core of these challenges is the nature of data that is manipulated. In traditional database applications, the database objects do not have any spatial dimension, and as such, can be thought of as point data in a multi-dimensional space. For example, each instance of an entity EMPLOYEE will have a unique value corresponding to every attribute such as employee id, employee name, employee address and so on. Thus, every Employee instance can be thought of as a point in a multi-dimensional space where each dimension is represented by an attribute. Furthermore, all operations on such data are one-dimensional. Thus, users may retrieve all entities satisfying one or more constraints. Examples of such constraints include employees with addresses in a certain area code, or salaries within a certain range. Even though constraints can be specified on multiple attributes (dimensions), the search for such data is essentially orthogonal across these dimensions.

Adam, Nabil↗

Encryption for Remote Control via Internet or Intranet

A data-communication protocol has been devised to enable secure, reliable remote control of processes and equipment via a collision-based network, while using minimal bandwidth and computation. The network could be the Internet or an intranet. Control is made secure by use of both a password and a dynamic key, which is sent transparently to a remote user by the controlled computer (that is, the computer, located at the site of the equipment or process to be controlled, that exerts direct control over the process). The protocol functions in the presence of network latency, overcomes errors caused by missed dynamic keys, and defeats attempts by unauthorized remote users to gain control. The protocol is not suitable for real-time control, but is well suited for applications in which control latencies up to about 0.5 second are acceptable. The encryption scheme involves the use of both a dynamic and a private key, without any additional overhead that would degrade performance. The dynamic key is embedded in the equipment- or process-monitor data packets sent out by the controlled computer: in other words, the dynamic key is a subset of the data in each such data packet. The controlled computer maintains a history of the last 3 to 5 data packets for use in decrypting incoming control commands. In addition, the controlled computer records a private key (password) that is given to the remote computer. The encrypted incoming command is permuted by both the dynamic and private key. A person who records the command data in a given packet for hostile purposes cannot use that packet after the public key expires (typically within 3 seconds). Even a person in possession of an unauthorized copy of the command/remote-display software cannot use that software in the absence of the password. The use of a dynamic key embedded in the outgoing data makes the central-processing unit overhead very small. The use of a National Instruments DataSocket(TradeMark) (or equivalent) protocol or the User Datagram Protocol makes it possible to obtain reasonably short response times: Typical response times in event-driven control, using packets sized .300 bytes, are <0.2 second for commands issued from locations anywhere on Earth. The protocol requires that control commands represent absolute values of controlled parameters (e.g., a specified temperature), as distinguished from changes in values of controlled parameters (e.g., a specified increment of temperature). Each command is issued three or more times to ensure delivery in crowded networks. The use of absolute-value commands prevents additional (redundant) commands from causing trouble. Because a remote controlling computer receives "talkback" in the form of data packets from the controlled computer, typically within a time interval < or =1 s, the controlling computer can re-issue a command if network failure has occurred. The controlled computer, the process or equipment that it controls, and any human operator(s) at the site of the controlled equipment or process should be equipped with safety measures to prevent damage to equipment or injury to humans. These features could be a combination of software, external hardware, and intervention by the human operator(s). The protocol is not fail-safe, but by adopting these safety measures as part of the protocol, one makes the protocol a robust means of controlling remote processes and equipment by use of typical office computers via intranets and/or the Internet.

Lineberger, Lewis↗

A Mission Concept: Re-Entry Hopper-Aero-Space-Craft System on-Mars (REARM-Mars)

Future missions to Mars that would need a sophisticated lander, hopper, or rover could benefit from the REARM Architecture. The mission concept REARM Architecture is designed to provide unprecedented capabilities for future Mars exploration missions, including human exploration and possible sample-return missions, as a reusable lander, ascend/descend vehicle, refuelable hopper, multiple-location sample-return collector, laboratory, and a cargo system for assets and humans. These could all be possible by adding just a single customized Re-Entry-Hopper-Aero-Space-Craft System, called REARM-spacecraft, and a docking station at the Martian orbit, called REARM-dock. REARM could dramatically decrease the time and the expense required to launch new exploratory missions on Mars by making them less dependent on Earth and by reusing the assets already designed, built, and sent to Mars. REARM would introduce a new class of Mars exploration missions, which could explore much larger expanses of Mars in a much faster fashion and with much more sophisticated lab instruments. The proposed REARM architecture consists of the following subsystems: REARM-dock, REARM-spacecraft, sky-crane, secure-attached-compartment, sample-return container, agile rover, scalable orbital lab, and on-the-road robotic handymen.

Davoodi, Faranak↗

New Design Yields Robust Large-Area Framing Camera

Manuscript to be submitted to Review of Scientific Instruments to determine interest in possible publication. Website: https://aip.scitation.org/rsi/authors/manuscript High-speed imaging is a core diagnostic capability for the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Data from experiments that measure the behavior of materials under extreme conditions are essential for the stockpile mission. For example, during subcritical experiments, materials that are shocked and compressed under high-explosive drive change behavior rapidly over timescales measured in millionths or even billionths of a second. Characterizing and understanding this behavior requires radiographic and/or optical imaging to track motion on these timescales. Framing cameras provide a discrete series of images over a short period of time in a manner that mimics a high-speed movie camera, but with individual shutter times that must be extremely short in order to capture freeze-frame images of rapidly evolving phenomena such as high-explosive shock-driven ejecta, dynamic compression of metals, and high-velocity fluid flow.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Resilient Design of Continuous-time Distributed Optimization Algorithm in the Presence of Cyber-attacks

This paper presents a continuous-time resilient distributed optimization algorithm based on competitive interaction design method on connected graphs in the presence of adversaries. Here, the competitive interaction method allows us to design a network that protects the multi-agent systems from adversaries without requiring high network connectivity. In addition, the proposed algorithm does not require the global information about the number of adversaries. First, we show that the proposed distributed algorithm solves the resilient distributed optimization problem with no attack on the communication links. Second, we show that the proposed continuous-time distributed optimization algorithm on connected graphs converges to the small neighborhood of the optimal solution in the presence of cyber-attacks onto the communication channel. Simulations are presented to illustrate our theoretical results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reversible electrowetting transitions on superhydrophobic surfaces

An electric field applied across the interface has been shown to enable transitions from the Cassie to the Wenzel state on superhydrophobic surfaces with miniature corrugations. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations manifest the possibility of reversible cycling between the two states when narrow surface wells support spontaneous expulsion of water in the absence of the field. With approximately 1 nm sized wells between the surface asperities, the response times to changes in the electric field are of O(0.1) ns, allowing up to GHz frequency of the cycle. Because of the orientation preferences of interfacial water in contact with the solid, the phenomenon depends on the polarity of the field normal to the interface. The threshold field strength for the Cassie-to-Wenzel transition is significantly lower for the field pointing from the aqueous phase to the surface; however, once in the Wenzel state, the opposite field direction secures tighter filling of the wells. Considerable hysteresis revealed by the delayed water retraction at decreasing field strength indicates the presence of moderate kinetic barriers to expulsion. Known to scale approximately with the square of the length scale of the corrugations, these barriers preclude the use of increased corrugation sizes while the reduction of the well diameter necessitates stronger electric fields. Field-controlled Cassie-to-Wenzel transitions are therefore optimized by using superhydrophobic surfaces with nanosized corrugations. Abrupt changes indicate a high degree of cooperativity reflecting the correlations between the wetting states of interconnected wells on the textured surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Octet: A coherent qubit control system for trapped-ion quantum computers

This is firmware and software designed for a Zynq UltraScale+ RFSoC chip made by Xilinx, specifically targeted to laser-based individual addressing of trapped ion qubits via a multi-channel AOM. The design features 8 dual-tone outputs with frequencies up to 409 MHz that can be controlled statically or dynamically via on-chip cubic spline interpolation engines that allow one to generate sequences of output waveforms with fast modulation of frequency, phase, amplitude, and z-rotations that are smooth/discrete and can run simultaneously across all parameters/tones. It also features global phase alignment on all tones regardless of frequency and the ability to return to a known phase/frequency at any later time on a per-tone basis without the need for manual bookkeeping. Acoustic and optical cross-talk can also be destructively canceled by adding neighboring outputs with variable amplitude/phase/delay. Each tone can be optionally frequency locked to an external RF source. SAND2020-12703 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Lobser, Daniel↗

Student Opportunities in 2022 - An XTD-SS Perspective [Slides]

Intended for remote presentations for student recruiting. Los Alamos National Laboratory’s mission is to solve security challenges through simultaneous excellence. It accomplishes this through the shared efforts of a diverse group of people from many backgrounds. A crucial subset of these people are students that make their contributions in mathematics, physics, engineering, and more. In this presentation, I will describe LANL, its student programs, my division XTD, my group XTD-SS, and several relevant topics for students. I conclude with the following statement: LANL is a great place to apply skills learned in academia and time spent here is valuable for wherever your future career may lead you.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stewardship of very large digital data archives

This paper addresses the problems foreseen by the author in stewarding the very large digital data archives that will accumulate during the mission of the Earth Orbiting Satellite (EOS). It focuses on the function of 'shepherding' archived digital data into an endless future. Stewardship entails a great deal more than storing and protecting the archive. It also includes all aspects of providing meaningful service to the community of users (scientists) who will want to access the data. The complete steward will be required to do the following: (1) provide against loss due to physical phenomena; (2) assure that data is not 'lost' due to storage technology obsolescence; (3) maintain data in a current formatting methodology with the additional requirement of being able to reconstitute the data to its original, as-received format; (4) secure against loss or pollution of data due to accidental, misguided, or willful software intrusion; (5) prevent unauthorized electronic access to the data, including unauthorized placement of data into the archive; (6) index the data in a metadatabase so that all anticipatable queries can be served without searching through the data itself; (7) provide responsive access to the metadatabase; (8) provide appropriately responsive access to the data; (9) incorporate additions and changes to the archive (and to the metadatabase) in a timely way; and (10) deliver only copies of data to clients - retain physical custody of the 'official' data. Items 1 through 4 are discussed in this paper.

Savage, Patric↗

Earth Science Data and Models for Improved Targeting of Humanitarian Aid

Humanitarian assistance to developing countries has long focused on countries that have political, economic and strategic interest to the United States. Recent changes in global security concerns have heightened the perception that humanitarian action is becoming increasingly politicized. This is seen to be largely driven by the 'global war on terror' along with a push by donors and the United Nations for closer integration between humanitarian action and diplomatic, military and other spheres of engagement in conflict and crisis-affected states (HPG 2010). As we enter an era of rising commodity prices and increasing uncertainty in global food production due to a changing climate, scientific data and analysis will be increasingly important to improve the targeting of humanitarian assistance. Earth science data enables appropriate humanitarian response to complex food emergencies that arise in regions outside the areas of current strategic and security focus. As the climate changes, new places will become vulnerable to food insecurity and will need emergency assistance. Earth science data and multidisciplinary models will enable an information-based comparison of need that goes beyond strategic and political considerations to identify new hotspots of food insecurity as they emerge. These analyses will improve aid targeting and timeliness while reducing strategic risk by highlighting new regions at risk of crisis in a rapidly changing world. Improved targeting with respect to timing and location could reduce cost while increasing the likelihood that those who need aid get it.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Global Patterns of Crop Yield Stability Under Additional Nutrient and Water Inputs

Agricultural production must increase to feed a growing and wealthier population, as well as to satisfy increasing demands for biomaterials and biomass-based energy. At the same time, deforestation and land-use change need to be minimized in order to preserve biodiversity and maintain carbon stores in vegetation and soils. Consequently, agricultural land use needs to be intensified in order to increase food production per unit area of land. Here we use simulations of AgMIP's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 to assess implications of input-driven intensification (water, nutrients) on crop yield and yield stability, which is an important aspect in food security. We find region- and crop-specific responses for the simulated period 1980+/-2009 with broadly increasing yield variability under additional nitrogen inputs and stabilizing yields under additional water inputs (irrigation), reflecting current patterns of water and nutrient limitation. The different models of the GGCMI ensemble show similar response patterns, but model differences warrant further research on management assumptions, such as variety selection and soil management, and inputs as well as on model implementation of different soil and plant processes, such as on heat stress, and parameters. Higher variability in crop productivity under higher fertilizer input will require adequate buffer mechanisms in trade and distribution/storage networks to avoid food price volatility.

Maize↗

Heterogeneous multiphase flow properties of volcanic rocks and implications for noble gas transport from underground nuclear explosions

Of interest to the Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment are patterns and timing of explosion-generated noble gases that reach the land surface. The impact of potentially simultaneous flow of water and gas on noble gas transport in heterogeneous fractured rock is a current scientific knowledge gap. This article presents field and laboratory data to constrain and justify a triple continua conceptual model with multimodal multiphase fluid flow constitutive equations that represents host rock matrix, natural fractures, and induced fractures from past underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) at Aqueduct and Pahute Mesas, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA. Capillary pressure from mercury intrusion and direct air–water measurements on volcanic tuff core samples exhibit extreme spatial heterogeneity (i.e., variation over multiple orders of magnitude). Petrographic observations indicate that heterogeneity derives from multimodal pore structures in ash-flow tuff components and post-depositional alteration processes. Comparisons of pre- and post-UNE samples reveal different pore size distributions that are due in part to microfractures. Capillary pressure relationships require a multimodal van Genuchten (VG) constitutive model to best fit the data. Relative permeability estimations based on unimodal VG fits to capillary pressure can be different from those based on bimodal VG fits, implying the choice of unimodal vs. bimodal fits may greatly affect flow and transport predictions of noble gas signatures. The range in measured capillary pressure and predicted relative permeability curves for a given lithology and between lithologies highlights the need for future modeling to consider spatially distributed properties.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗