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NASA NTRS2009

Simulation and Interpretation of the Genesis of Tropical Storm Gert (2005) as Part of the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment

Several hypotheses have been put forward for the how tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic) first develop circulation at the surface, a key event that needs to occur before a storm can begin to draw energy from the warm ocean. One hypothesis suggests that the surface circulation forms from a "top-down" approach in which a storm s rotating circulation begins at middle levels of the atmosphere and builds down to the surface through processes related to light "stratiform" (horizontally extensive) precipitation. Another hypothesis suggests a bottom-up approach in which deep thunderstorm towers (convection) play the major role in spinning up the flow at the surface. These "hot towers" form in the area of the mid-level circulation and strongly concentrate this rotation at low levels within their updrafts. Merger of several of these hot towers then intensifies the surface circulation to the point in which a storm forms. This paper examines computer simulations of Tropical Storm Gert (2005), which formed in the Gulf of Mexico during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) Experiment, to investigate the development of low-level circulation and, in particular, whether stratiform or hot tower processes were responsible for the storm s formation. Data from NASA satellites and from aircraft were used to show that the model did a good job of reproducing the formation and evolution of Gert. The simulation shows that a mix of both stratiform and convective rainfall occurred within Gert. While the stratiform rainfall clearly acted to increase rotation at middle levels, the diverging outflow beneath the stratiform rain worked against spinning up the low-level winds. The hot towers appeared to dominate the low-level flow, producing intense rotation within their cores and often being associated with significant pressure falls at the surface. Over time, many of these hot towers merged, with each merger adding to the rotation of the storm and the pressure falls at the surface. This process continued to increase the strength of the storm until the storm made landfall on the east coast of Mexico. These results support the bottom-up hypothesis for development.

Braun, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Space Transportation System (STS)-117 External Tank (ET)-124 Hail Damage Repair Assessment

Severe thunderstorms with associated hail and high winds struck the STS-117 stack on February 26, 2007. Peak winds were recorded at 62 knots with hail sizes ranging from 0.3 inch to 0.8 inch in diameter. As a result of the storm, the North Carolina Foam Institute (NCFI) type 24-124 Thermal Protection System (TPS) foam on the liquid oxygen (LO2) ogive acreage incurred significant impact damage. The NCFI on the ET intertank and the liquid hydrogen (LH2) acreage sustained hail damage. The Polymer Development Laboratory (PDL)-1034 foam of the LO2 ice frost ramps (IFRs) and the Super-Lightweight Ablator (SLA) of the LO2 cable tray also suffered minor damage. NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was asked to assess the technical feasibility of repairing the ET TPS, the reasonableness of conducting those repairs with the vehicle in a vertical, integrated configuration at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Vehicle Assemble Building (VAB), and to address attendant human factors considerations including worker fatigue and the potential for error. The outcome of the assessment is recorded in this document.

Wilson, Timmy R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Raindrop Size Distribution Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

Characteristics of the raindrop size distribution in seven tropical cyclones have been studied through impact-type disdrometer measurements at three different sites during the 2004-06 Atlantic hurricane seasons. One of the cyclones has been observed at two different sites. High concentrations of small and/or midsize drops were observed in the presence or absence of large drops. Even in the presence of large drops, the maximum drop diameter rarely exceeded 4 mm. These characteristics of raindrop size distribution were observed in all stages of tropical cyclones, unless the storm was in the extratropical stage where the tropical cyclone and a midlatitude frontal system had merged. The presence of relatively high concentrations of large drops in extratropical cyclones resembled the size distribution in continental thunderstorms. The integral rain parameters of drop concentration, liquid water content, and rain rate at fixed reflectivity were therefore lower in extratropical cyclones than in tropical cyclones. In tropical cyclones, at a disdrometercalculated reflectivity of 40 dBZ, the number concentration was 700 plus or minus 100 drops m(sup -3), while the liquid water content and rain rate were 0.90 plus or minus 0.05 g m(sup -3) and 18.5 plus or minus 0.5 mm h(sup -1), respectively. The mean mass diameter, on the other hand, was 1.67 plus or minus 0.3 mm. The comparison of raindrop size distributions between Atlantic tropical cyclones and storms that occurred in the central tropical Pacific island of Roi-Namur revealed that the number density is slightly shifted toward smaller drops, resulting in higher-integral rain parameters and lower mean mass and maximum drop diameters at the latter site. Considering parameterization of the raindrop size distribution in tropical cyclones, characteristics of the normalized gamma distribution parameters were examined with respect to reflectivity. The mean mass diameter increased rapidly with reflectivity, while the normalized intercept parameter had an increasing trend with reflectivity. The shape parameter, on the other hand, decreased in a reflectivity range from 10 to 20 dBZ and remained steady at higher reflectivities. Considering the repeatability of the characteristics of the raindrop size distribution, a second impact disdrometer that was located 5.3 km away from the primary site in Wallops Island, Virginia, had similar size spectra in selected tropical cyclones.

Tokay, Ali↗

NASA NTRS2009

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems for Disaster Relief: Tornado Alley

Unmanned aerial vehicle systems are currently in limited use for public service missions worldwide. Development of civil unmanned technology in the United States currently lags behind military unmanned technology development in part because of unresolved regulatory and technological issues. Civil unmanned aerial vehicle systems have potential to augment disaster relief and emergency response efforts. Optimal design of aerial systems for such applications will lead to unmanned vehicles which provide maximum potentiality for relief and emergency response while accounting for public safety concerns and regulatory requirements. A case study is presented that demonstrates application of a civil unmanned system to a disaster relief mission with the intent on saving lives. The concept utilizes unmanned aircraft to obtain advanced warning and damage assessments for tornados and severe thunderstorms. Overview of a tornado watch mission architecture as well as commentary on risk, cost, need for, and design tradeoffs for unmanned aerial systems are provided.

DeBusk, Wesley M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Developing Dual Polarization Applications For 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) New Weather Radar: A Cooperative Project With The National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC)

A new weather radar is being acquired for use in support of America s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA Kennedy Space Center, and Patrick AFB on the east coast of central Florida. This new radar includes dual polarization capability, which has not been available to 45 WS previously. The 45 WS has teamed with NSSTC with funding from NASA Marshall Spaceflight Flight Center to improve their use of this new dual polarization capability when it is implemented operationally. The project goals include developing a temperature profile adaptive scan strategy, developing training materials, and developing forecast techniques and tools using dual polarization products. The temperature profile adaptive scan strategy will provide the scan angles that provide the optimal compromise between volume scan rate, vertical resolution, phenomena detection, data quality, and reduced cone-of-silence for the 45 WS mission. The mission requirements include outstanding detection of low level boundaries for thunderstorm prediction, excellent vertical resolution in the atmosphere electrification layer between 0 C and -20 C for lightning forecasting and Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, good detection of anvil clouds for Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, reduced cone-of-silence, fast volume scans, and many samples per pulse for good data quality. The training materials will emphasize the appropriate applications most important to the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset and cessation of lightning, forecasting convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. The training materials will focus on annotated radar imagery based on products available to the 45 WS. Other examples will include time sequenced radar products without annotation to simulate radar operations. This will reinforce the forecast concepts and also allow testing of the forecasters. The new dual polarization techniques and tools will focus on the appropriate applications for the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset of lightning, the cessation of lightning, convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. This presentation will report on the results achieved so far in the project.

Roeder, W.P.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Global Electric Circuit Implications of Total Current Measurements over Electrified Clouds

We determined total conduction (Wilson) currents and flash rates for 850 overflights of electrified clouds spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, with and without lightning, and with positive and negative Wilson currents. We combined these individual storm overflight statistics with global diurnal lightning variation data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) to estimate the thunderstorm and electrified shower cloud contributions to the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit. The contributions to the global electric circuit from lightning producing clouds are estimated by taking the mean current per flash derived from the overflight data for land and ocean overflights and combining it with the global lightning rates (for land and ocean) and their diurnal variation derived from the LIS/OTD data. We estimate the contribution of non-lightning producing electrified clouds by assuming several different diurnal variations and total non-electrified storm counts to produce estimates of the total storm currents (lightning and non-lightning producing storms). The storm counts and diurnal variations are constrained so that the resultant total current diurnal variation equals the diurnal variation in the fair weather electric field (+/-15%). These assumptions, combined with the airborne and satellite data, suggest that the total mean current in the global electric circuit ranges from 2.0 to 2.7 kA, which is greater than estimates made by others using other methods.

Mach, Douglas M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

Albrecht, R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) for GOES-R: A New Operational Capability to Improve Storm Forecasts and Warnings

The next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series is a follow on to the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved spectral (3x), spatial (4x), and temporal (5x) resolution for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The GLM, an optical transient detector and imager operating in the near-IR at 777.4 nm will map all (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) lighting flashes continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions, from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development (a prototype and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data are being provided in an experimental mode to selected National Weather Service (NWS) national centers and forecast offices via the GOES-R Proving Ground to help improve our understanding of the application of these data in operational settings and facilitate Day-1 user readiness for this new capability.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA SPoRT GOES-R Proving Ground Activities

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program is a partner with the GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) helping prepare forecasters understand the unique products to come from the GOES-R instrument suite. SPoRT is working collaboratively with other members of the GOES-R PG team and Algorithm Working Group (AWG) scientists to develop and disseminate a suite of proxy products that address specific forecast problems for the WFOs, Regional and National Support Centers, and other NOAA users. These products draw on SPoRT s expertise with the transition and evaluation of products into operations from the MODIS instrument and the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). The MODIS instrument serves as an excellent proxy for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) that will be aboard GOES-R. SPoRT has transitioned and evaluated several multi-channel MODIS products. The true and false color products are being used in natural hazard detection by several SPoRT partners to provide better observation of land features, such as fires, smoke plumes, and snow cover. Additionally, many of SPoRT s partners are coastal offices and already benefit from the MODIS sea surface temperature composite. This, along with other surface feature observations will be developed into ABI proxy products for diagnostic use in the forecast process as well as assimilation into forecast models. In addition to the MODIS instrument, the NALMA has proven very valuable to WFOs with access to these total lightning data. These data provide situational awareness and enhanced warning decision making to improve lead times for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. One effort by SPoRT scientists includes a lightning threat product to create short-term model forecasts of lightning activity. Additionally, SPoRT is working with the AWG to create GLM proxy data from several of the ground based total lightning networks, such as the NALMA. The evaluation will focus on the vastly improved spatial coverage of the GLM, but with the trade-off of lower resolution compared to the NALMA. In addition to the above tasks, SPoRT will make these data available in the NWS next generation display software, AWIPS II. This has already been successfully completed for the two basic GLM proxies. SPoRT will use these products to train forecasters on the capabilities of GOES-R and foster feedback to develop additional products, visualizations, and requirements beneficial to end users needs. These developments and feedback will be made available to the GOES-R Proving Ground for the upcoming 2010 Spring Program in Norman, Oklahoma.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) for the GOES-R Series Next Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Constellation

The next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2015 is a follow on to the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. The system will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. The system provides products including lightning, cloud properties, rainfall rate, volcanic ash, air quality, hurricane intensity, and fire/hot spot characterization. Advancements over current GOES include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution for the 16-channel Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), an optical transient detector will map total (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning flashes continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions, from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the higher level algorithms and applications using the GLM alone and decision aids incorporating information from the ABI, ground-based weather radar, and numerical models. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional lightning networks are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time total lightning mapping data are also being provided in an experimental mode to selected National Weather Service (NWS) national centers and forecast offices via the GOES-R Proving Ground to help improve our understanding of the application of these data in operational settings and facilitate early on-orbit user readiness for this new capability.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Assessing Operational Total Lightning Visualization Products

In May 2003, NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program successfully provided total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) to the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Huntsville, Alabama. The major accomplishment was providing the observations in real-time to the NWS in the native Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) decision support system. Within days, the NALMA data were used to issue a tornado warning initiating seven years of ongoing support to the NWS' severe weather and situational awareness operations. With this success, SPoRT now provides real-time NALMA data to five forecast offices as well as working to transition data from total lightning networks at Kennedy Space Center and the White Sands Missile Range to the surrounding NWS offices. The only NALMA product that has been transitioned to SPoRT's partner NWS offices is the source density product, available at a 2 km resolution in 2 min intervals. However, discussions with users of total lightning data from other networks have shown that other products are available, ranging from spatial and temporal variations of the source density product to the creation of a flash extent density. SPoRT and the Huntsville, Alabama NWS are evaluating the utility of these variations as this has not been addressed since the initial transition in 2003. This preliminary analysis will focus on what products will best support the operational warning decision process. Data from 19 April 2009 are analyzed. On this day, severe thunderstorms formed ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread severe weather was observed, primarily south of the Tennessee River with multiple, weak tornadoes, numerous severe hail reports, and wind. This preliminary analysis is the first step in evaluation which product(s) are best suited for operations. The ultimate goal is selecting a single product for use with all total lightning networks to streamline training and science sharing.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Reevaluating the Role of Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet provides an energy source for the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. In this study, multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, CALIPSO, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to see if the proposed negative influences deserve all of the attention they have recently received. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the African jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and is typically stronger in storms that intensify than those that weaken, suggesting that jet-induced vertical wind shear is not a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. A comparison of the environments of strongly strengthening storms and of weakening storms shows no differences in SAL structure, indicating that the SAL has little influence on whether storms weaken or intensify. The large-scale flow at upper levels above the SAL was found to be most important, with the environment of strengthening storms having very little vertical wind shear and also favoring more expansive outflow from the storm. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence (sinking air motions). Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance dryness at low levels, but moisten the air at midlevels. Therefore, mid-to-upper-level dryness is not a defining characteristic of the SAL, but is instead a signature of subsidence. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not the major negative influence on hurricanes that recent studies have emphasized. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III

The AMU created new logistic regression equations in an effort to increase the skill of the Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II (Lambert 2007). One equation was created for each of five sub-seasons based on the daily lightning climatology instead of by month as was done in Phase II. The assumption was that these equations would capture the physical attributes that contribute to thunderstorm formation more so than monthly equations. However, the SS values in Section 5.3.2 showed that the Phase III equations had worse skill than the Phase II equations and, therefore, will not be transitioned into operations. The current Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II will continue to be used operationally in MIDDS. Three warm seasons were added to the Phase II dataset to increase the POR from 17 to 20 years (1989-2008), and data for October were included since the daily climatology showed lightning occurrence extending into that month. None of the three methods tested to determine the start of the subseason in each individual year were able to discern the start dates with consistent accuracy. Therefore, the start dates were determined by the daily climatology shown in Figure 10 and were the same in every year. The procedures used to create the predictors and develop the equations were identical to those in Phase II. The equations were made up of one to three predictors. TI and the flow regime probabilities were the top predictors followed by 1-day persistence, then VT and Ll. Each equation outperformed four other forecast methods by 7-57% using the verification dataset, but the new equations were outperformed by the Phase II equations in every sub-season. The reason for the degradation may be due to the fact that the same sub-season start dates were used in every year. It is likely there was overlap of sub-season days at the beginning and end of each defined sub-season in each individual year, which could very well affect equation performance.

Crawford, Winifred C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Sao Paulo Lightning Mapping Array (SPLMA): Prospects to GOES-R GLM and CHUVA

This paper presents the characteristics and prospects of a Lightning Mapping Array to be deployed at the city of S o Paulo (SPLMA). This LMA network will provide CHUVA campaign with total lightning, lightning channel mapping and detailed information on the locations of cloud charge regions for the thunderstorms investigated during one of its IOP. The real-time availability of LMA observations will also contribute to and support improved weather situational awareness and mission execution. For GOES-R program it will form the basis of generating unique and valuable proxy data sets for both GLM and ABI sensors in support of several on-going research investigations

Albrecht, Rachel I.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Goes-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM): Algorithm and Instrument Status

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved capability for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) will map total lightning activity (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lighting flashes) continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development (a prototype and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms, cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. A joint field campaign with Brazilian researchers in 2010-2011 will produce concurrent observations from a VHF lightning mapping array, Meteosat multi-band imagery, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) overpasses, and related ground and in-situ lightning and meteorological measurements in the vicinity of Sao Paulo. These data will provide a new comprehensive proxy data set for algorithm and application development.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Combined Aircraft and Satellite-Derived Storm Electric Current and Lightning Rates Measurements and Implications for the Global Electric Circuit

Using rotating vane electric field mills and Gerdien capacitors, we measured the electric field profile and conductivity during 850 overflights of electrified shower clouds and thunderstorms spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, with and without lightning, and with positive and negative fields above the storms. The measurements were made with the NASA ER-2 and the Altus-II high altitude aircrafts. Peak electric fields, with lightning transients removed, ranged from -1.0 kV/m to 16 kV/m, with a mean value of 0.9 kV/m. The median peak field was 0.29 kV/m. Integrating our electric field and conductivity data, we determined total conduction currents and flash rates for each overpass. With knowledge of the storm location (land or ocean) and type (with or without lightning), we determine the mean currents by location and type. The mean current for ocean storms with lightning is 1.6 A while the mean current for land storms with lightning is 1.0 A. The mean current for oceanic storms without lightning (i.e., electrified shower clouds) is 0.39 A and the mean current for land storms without lightning is 0.13 A. Thus, on average, land storms with or without lightning have about half the mean current as their corresponding oceanic storm counterparts. Over three-quarters (78%) of the land storms had detectable lightning, while less than half (43%) of the oceanic storms had lightning. We did not find any significant regional or latitudinal based patterns in our total conduction currents. By combining the aircraft derived storm currents and flash rates with diurnal lightning statistics derived from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) low Earth orbiting satellites, we reproduce the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit (i.e., the Carnegie curve) to within 4% for all but two short periods of time. This excellent agreement with the Carnegie curve was obtained without any tuning or adjustment of the satellite or aircraft data. Given our data and assumptions, mean contributions to the global electric circuit are 0.7 kA (ocean) and 1.1 kA (land) from lightning-producing storms, and 0.22 kA (ocean) and 0.04 (land) from electrified shower clouds, resulting in a mean total conduction current estimate for the global electric circuit of 2.0 kA. Breaking the results down into mean storm counts reveals 1100 for land storms with lightning, 530 for ocean storms without lightning, 390 for ocean storms with lightning, and 330 for land storms without lightning.

Mach, Douglas M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Analysis of Summertime Convective Initiation in Central Alabama Using the Land Information System

During the summer months in the southeastern United States, convective initiation presents a frequent challenge to operational forecasters. Thunderstorm development has traditionally been referred to as random due to their disorganized, sporadic appearance and lack of atmospheric forcing. Horizontal variations in land surface characteristics such as soil moisture, soil type, land and vegetation cover could possibly be a focus mechanism for afternoon convection during the summer months. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) provides a stand-alone land surface modeling framework that incorporates these varying soil and vegetation properties, antecedent precipitation, and atmospheric forcing to represent the soil state at high resolution. The use of LIS as a diagnostic tool may help forecasters to identify boundaries in land surface characteristics that could correlate to favored regions of convection initiation. The NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) team has been collaborating with the National Weather Service Office in Birmingham, AL to help incorporate LIS products into their operational forecasting methods. This paper highlights selected convective case dates from summer 2009 when synoptic forcing was weak, and identifies any boundaries in land surface characteristics that may have contributed to convective initiation. The LIS output depicts the effects of increased sensible heat flux from urban areas on the development of convection, as well as convection along gradients in land surface characteristics and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These features may promote mesoscale circulations and/or feedback processes that can either enhance or inhibit convection. With this output previously unavailable to operational forecasters, LIS provides a new tool to forecasters in order to help eliminate the randomness of summertime convective initiation.

James, Robert S.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The GOES-R Series Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), which will have just completed Critical Design Review and move forward into the construction phase of instrument development. The GLM will operate continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development (an engineering development unit and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms, cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional ground-based lightning networks are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms, test data sets, and applications, as well as improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. In this presentation we review the planned implementation of the instrument and suite of operational algorithms

Goodman, Steven J.↗