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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

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NASA NTRS2019

Statistical optical link budget analysis

In this paper, we describe work on extending statistical analysis methods to optical communications links, with a primary focus on intensity modulated, direct detected photon-counting channel utilizing pulse-position-modulation (PPM). We performed analysis on the relationship between bit error rate (BER) requirement, statistical characteristics of the received signal power and noise power, and the coded performance curves. We presented link analysis results with preliminary uncertainty quantifications of signal power and noise power. We used the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Serially Concatenated convolutionally coded Pulse Position Modulation (SCPPM) prototype software [1] to obtain coded performance curves under different operating conditions with varying signal power, background noise power, code rates,and PPM modulation orders. Comparison with traditional, deterministic analysis shows that extra margin needs to be reserved to compensate for the performance losses caused by uncertainties of the link parameters.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Delta Method Application for the Correlation of IR Detector Thermal Parasitic Loads with Statistically Accurate Results

The Linear Etalon Imaging Spectral Array (LEISA) is a cryogenic IR detector that is passively cooled below 110K. LEISA is part of the L’Ralph instrument, which is going on the Lucy mission, with planned flyby’s of the Trojan asteroids around 5.5 AU. One of the primary thermal challenges is to successfully quantify each significant parasitic heat flow value with statistical certainty.Simulation of flight-like thermal environments and correlation of thermal models is an important part of this challenge, which can be critical for thermally sensitive systems such as cryogenic detectors that are passively cooled. It is common practice during TVAC to achieve several thermal balance points and then to correlate several design variables in order to achieve the closest match to all balance points tested. This approach lends itself to high levels of uncertainty in the correlated values due to the cumulative effect of absolute temperature uncertainty and differences between the sensors used for the measurement. Accuracy can be improved with the use of more accurate sensors, by calibrating all sensors with respect to each other, and by using Zero-Q methodologies, all of which add cost and complexity to the test.The Delta Method uses the difference in temperature caused by the changes in the boundary conditions to calculate heat flows and/or thermal resistances across temperature differentials. This eliminates the problem of high uncertainties with absolute temperature measurements, and yields statistically accurate results down to the sensor resolution of 1mK at < 100K, by taking the sensor’s calibration errors out of the equation. During testing, this method relies on parametric variations around an initial balance point, by varying the boundary conditions of the different parasitic heat sources. The Delta Method, as well as its application on the LEISA thermal test, will be discussed in detail.

Daniel G. Bae↗

NASA NTRS2021

Statistical Error Analysis on White-Light Filter Ratio Experiments to Measure Electron Parameters

The Filter ratio technique to remotely measure electron temperature and speed using four color filters in visible light and a polarization camera was described in detail in four articles by Reginald et al., Solar physics, (2018, 2019a, 2019b, 2020). In these four articles we quantified the systematic error associated with using models of symmetric corona to interpret results from asymmetric corona. We also showed the criteria applied to select the bandwidths of filters, and the pros and cons of replacing the traditional linear polarizer with a polarization camera to measure pB. What started in 1990s as ground experiments conducted during total solar eclipses that lasted for a few minutes lead to a balloon borne experiment lasting eight hours in 2019 and will blossom into a space experiment on the International Space Station in 2023. Due to constraints on the bandwidths of the four filters, a successful mission requires quantification of the statistical error using Monte Carlo simulation to generate two feasibility profiles, which are unique to the design parameters of the coronagraph, to comprehend the feasibility to measure temperature and speed within the desired temporal and spatial resolutions. For the statistical error analysis, we use modeled K and F corona profiles, representative theoretical diffraction, scattering, and vignetting profiles, assumed efficiencies for lenses, mirrors, and polarizers, assumed detector properties on quantum efficiency, full well depth, dark noise, and read noise, and assumed instrument properties on aperture diameter, solid angle, and pixel resolution. We hope future white-light coronagraphs will exhibit capabilities to measure electron density, temperature, and speed.

Nelson Reginald↗

NASA NTRS2022

An Algorithm for Statistical Audibility Prediction (SAP) of an Arbitrary Signal in the Presence of Noise

A method for predicting the audibility of an arbitrary time-varying noise (signal) in the presence of masking noise has been developed. The statistical audibility prediction (SAP) method relies on the specific loudness, or loudness perceived through the individual auditory filters, for accurate statistical estimation of audibility vs. time. More recent development has focused on derivation and inclusion of frequency-dependent correction factors in SAP’s model to account for the ability to hear signals below the level of the masking noise. Audibility prediction vs. time is intuitive since it captures changes in audibility with time as it occurs, which is critical for the study of human response to noise. Concurrently time-frequency prediction of audibility may also provide valuable information about the root cause(s) for audibility useful for the design and operation of sources of noise. Empirical data, gathered under a three-alternative forced-choice (3AFC) test paradigm for low-frequency sound, has been used to examine the accuracy of SAP.

audibility↗

NASA NTRS2022

Statistical study of favorable foreshock ion properties for the formation of hot flow anomalies and foreshock bubbles

Hot flow anomalies (HFAs) and foreshock bubbles (FBs) are frequently observed in Earth's foreshock, which can significantly disturb the bow shock and therefore the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and can accelerate particles. Previous statistical studies have identified the solar wind conditions (high solar wind speed and high Mach number, etc.) that favor their generation. However, backstreaming foreshock ions are expected to most directly control how HFAs and FBs form, whereas the solar wind may partake in the formation process indirectly by determining foreshock ion properties. Using Magnetospheric Multiscale mission and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms mission, we perform a statistical study of foreshock ion properties around 275 HFAs and FBs. We show that foreshock ions with a high foreshock-to-solar wind density ratio (>∼3%), high kinetic energy (>∼600 eV), large ratio of kinetic energy to thermal energy (>∼0.1), and large ratio of perpendicular temperature to parallel temperature (>∼1.4) favor HFA and FB formation. We also examine how these properties are related to solar wind conditions: high solar wind speed and oblique bow shock (angle between the interplanetary magnetic field and the bow shock normal 𝜃Bn∼45°) favor high kinetic energy of foreshock ions; foreshock ions have large ratio of kinetic energy to thermal energy at large 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴Bn (>30°); small 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴Bn (<30°), high Mach number, and closeness to the bow shock favor a high foreshock-to-solar wind density ratio. Our results provide further understanding of HFA and FB formation.

Terry Z. Liu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Flight on Turbulence Statistics and Noise Sources in a Round Turbulent Jet

Turbulence statistics relevant to noise modeling and prediction are computed in a near-sonic, unheated round jet in the presence of a flight stream using Large Eddy Simulation. The Naval Research Laboratory’s Jet Engine Noise REduction (JENRE) code is used to obtain unsteady flow solutions which are post-processed for single- and two-point, space-time statistical quantities, including the nominal noise sources from an acoustic analogy formulation. Jets subject to three different flight-stream speeds, along with a baseline static case, are considered. The impact of flight-stream speed on mean flow and turbulence profiles and the amplitudes, length and time scales of Reynolds-stress auto co-variances are determined and scalings for representing the flight stream effect are explored. The implications for source modeling in jet mixing noise predictions within an acoustic analogy formulation are discussed.

Jet noise, flight effects, aircraft noise↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Higher-Order Statistical Moments of Predicted Sonic Boom Waveforms Through Turbulence

Sonic booms generated by supersonic aircraft are affected by turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer through which they propagate. Turbulence effects lead to random variability of the sonic boom waveforms measured on the ground, complicating the prediction of such waveforms. As an initial effort to predict the waveform variability, the solution of the coherent or mean sonic boom waveform has previously been formulated by the author. The current paper extends the formulation to derive an expression of the second-order statistical moment necessary to calculate the variance of the spectral amplitudes. Since the derivation uses a full wave equation, results using the derived expression will be compared with those obtained using a parabolic approximation. In order to fully quantify the uncertainty of our predictions, the higher order statistical moments are also formulated and are shown to be approximately zero. Consequently, the probability density function (pdf) of the spectral amplitudes is predicted to be Gaussian. The formulation is further extended to determine the pdf of the loudness of sonic booms and quantify the uncertainties associated with the loudness prediction. Results from the formulation are compared with available flight test data.

sonic booms↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistically Consistent Dispersions of Line Loads to Uncertain Integrated Forces and Moments

This work presents a method to generate line loads that are consistent with integrated force and moment constraints, while also following the statistical distribution underlying known line load data. The motivation for this method is to address a particular problem that can arise during the pre-flight analysis of an ascent vehicle. That problem is constructing separate databases, for line loads and integrated aerodynamic coefficients, that contain different data and thus different amounts of quantified uncertainty. A dispersed line load method is described and applied to a data set generated by 29 computational fluid dynamics simulations at various angles of attack and sideslip. The statistical similarity of the generated line loads to the known data is confirmed by using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy 2-sample test. The promising results from this novel method are compared against results from applying an existing line load adjustment procedure to the same data set. Finally, potential future avenues of research are briefly discussed.

Aaron C. Burkhead↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Statistical Emulators of GGCMI Phase 2: Responses of Year-to-Year Variation of Crop Yield to CO 2 , Temperature, Water and Nitrogen Perturbations

Understanding the impact of climate change on year-to-year variation of crop yield is critical to global food stability and security. While crop model emulators are believed to be lightweight tools to replace the models, few emulators have been developed to capture such interannual variation of crop yield in response to climate variability. In this study, we developed a statistical emulator with a machine learning algorithm to reproduce the response of year-to-year variation of four crop yields to CO 2 (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N) perturbations defined in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) phase 2. The emulators were able to explain more than 52 % of the variance of simulated yield and performed well in capturing the year-to-year variation of global average and gridded crop yield over current croplands in the baseline. With the changes in CO 2 –temperature–water–nitrogen (CTWN) perturbations, the emulators could reproduce the year-to-year variation of crop yield well over most current cropland. The variation of R and the mean absolute error was small under the single CTWN perturbations and dual-factor perturbations. These emulators thus provide statistical response surfaces of yield, including both its mean and interannual variability, to climate factors. They could facilitate spatiotemporal downscaling of crop model simulation, projecting the changes in crop yield variability in the future and serving as a lightweight tool for multi-model ensemble simulation. The emulators enhanced the flexibility of crop yield estimates and expanded the application of large-ensemble simulations of crop yield under climate change.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Flight on Turbulence Statistics and Noise Sources in a Round Turbulent Jet

Turbulence statistics relevant to noise modeling and prediction are computed in a series near-sonic, unheated round jets in the presence of a flight stream using Large Eddy Simulation. The Naval Research Laboratory’s Jet Engine Noise REduction (JENRE®) code is used to obtain unsteady flow solutions which are post-processed for single- and two-point, space-time statistical quantities, including the nominal noise sources from an acoustic analogy formulation. Jets subject to three different flight-stream speeds, along with a baseline static case, are considered. The impact of flight-stream speed on mean flow and turbulence profiles and the amplitudes, length and time scales of Reynolds-stress auto co-variances are determined and scalings for representing the flight-stream effect are explored. The implications for source modeling in jet mixing noise predictions within an acoustic analogy formulation are discussed.

Jet noise↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Flight on Turbulence Statistics and Noise Sources in a Round Turbulent Jet

Turbulence statistics relevant to noise modeling and prediction are computed in a series near-sonic, unheated round jets in the presence of a flight stream using Large Eddy Simulation. The Naval Research Laboratory’s Jet Engine Noise REduction (JENRE) code is used to obtain unsteady flow solutions which are post-processed for single- and two-point, space-time statistical quantities, including the nominal noise sources from an acoustic analogy formulation. Jets subject to three different flight-stream speeds, along with a baseline static case, are considered. The impact of flight-stream speed on mean flow and turbulence profiles and the amplitudes, length and time scales of Reynolds-stress auto co-variances are determined and scalings for representing the flight-stream effect are explored. The implications for source modeling in jet mixing noise predictions within an acoustic analogy formulation are discussed.

Jet noise↗

NASA NTRS2023

Finding the magnetopause location using soft X-ray observations and a statistical inverse method

Variability in the location and shape of the dayside magnetopause is attributed to magnetic reconnection, a fundamental process that enables the transfer of mass, energy, and momentum from the solar wind into the magnetosphere. The spatial and temporal properties of the magnetopause, under varying solar and magnetospheric conditions, remain largely unknown because empirical studies using in-situ observations are challenging to interpret. Global wide field-of-view (FOV) imaging is the only means to simultaneously observe the spatial distribution of the plasma properties over the vast dayside magnetospheric region and, subsequently, quantify the energy transport from the interplanetary medium into the terrestrial magnetosphere. Two upcoming missions, ESA/CAS SMILE and NASA’s LEXI will provide wide-field imagery of the dayside magnetosheath in soft X-rays, an emission generated by charge exchange interactions between high charge-state heavy ions of solar wind origin and exospheric neutral atoms. High-cadence two-dimensional observations of the magnetosheath will allow the estimation of dynamic properties of its inner boundary, the magnetopause, and enable studies of its response to changes in the solar wind dynamic pressure and interplanetary magnetic field orientation. This work introduces a statistically-based estimation approach based on inverse theory to estimate the spatial distribution of magnetosheath soft X-ray emissivities and, with this, identify the location of the magnetopause over the Sun−Earth line. To do so, we simulate the magnetosheath structure using the MHD-based OpenGGCM model and generate synthetic soft X-ray images using LEXI’s orbit and attitude information. Our results show that 3-D estimations using the described statistically-based technique are robust against Poisson-distributed shot noise inherent to soft X-ray images. Also, our proposed methodology shows that the accuracy of both three-dimensional (3-D) estimation and the magnetopause standoff distance calculation highly depends on the observational point.

Gonzalo Cucho-Padin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Analysis of Recent Go Around Flight Data to Study and Evaluate Skilled Pilot Monitoring

A statistical analysis was performed on a batch of recent go-around flight data of a few major US airlines spanning a one year period. The statistical analysis investigates a few select relevant aspects of these go arounds, such as initiation altitude and altitude change, aircraft configuration, deviation from the flightpath, and energy state. These data show that only one third of the landings are aborted below 400ft, but the majority of the go arounds occur at significantly higher altitudes. Current go-around training is specifically focused on the final approach and landing phase at low altitudes and low speeds. The results of this study will support the development of a broader set of relevant scenarios for an FAA simulator experiment to study and evaluate the skills of the pilots who monitor this wide spectrum of diverse go-around conditions, with the ultimate goal to help improve pilot go-around training and technologies.

go around↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Three Years of Airborne Observations During NASA Activate: A Statistical Summary of Chemical, Optical, and Microphysical Aerosol Properties Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean

Airborne observations are critical to understanding Earth’s climate system and surface-level air quality by providing both spatial and vertical information that is not possible through ground measurement networks or satellite observations. Airborne platforms allow assessments of long-range transport, vertical redistribution, boundary-layer dynamics, and cloud-aerosol-interactions that are critical to model evaluation and satellite validation. Still, the high cost and effort of aircraft operations can limit measurement campaigns to short, focused time periods. Multiple deployments are often necessary for seasonal comparisons, and results can be limited if target phenomenon are infrequent. Subsequent analyses typically focus on case studies, especially if deployment conditions are climatologically anomalous. The NASA ACTIVATE (Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment) mission was designed to overcome these limitations by operating semi-continuously over multiple months during multiple seasons. Flight plans were intentionally simple, repetitive, and systematic to provide a statistically robust dataset that could be utilized similarly to a ground-network. Here, we present an overview of three years (2020-2022) of aerosol measurements from the NASA HU-25 Falcon aircraft supporting the ACTIVATE mission. Data from 179 flights were considered, the majority of which were based at NASA Langley Research Center and flown locally over the Wester North Atlantic Ocean just east of Hampton, VA, USA. Airmass characteristics tended to transition from continental outflow near the coast to mostly marine over the open ocean. Seasonal, diurnal, spatial, and vertical trends in aerosol microphysical, optical, and chemical properties are discussed in the context of synoptic scale meteorology. Statistical benefits of the ACTIVATE sampling strategy are discussed with regard to future model evaluation.

Luke D Ziemba↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Time-History Statistics of Soot Formation in A Model Gas Turbine Combustor

Soot formation is a complex dynamic and intermittent process determined by properties of the fuel, combustor design, and combustor operation. Although the major steps in soot formation (i.e., formation of precursors, inception, growth and evolution) are similar for a variety of carbonaceous fuels, applications, and operating conditions, it remains unclear when the temporal transition between these steps occurs. An engineering prediction tool coupled with computational fluid physics (CFD), therefore needs to accurately model all these complex steps. To develop such a model, we propose the time-history concept for understanding the time dependency of soot formation as a function of local properties (i.e., temperature, velocity, local fuel air ratio, etc.). We continue our previous work with modeling the DLR aero-combustor [1] with our updated in-house CFD code, Open National Combustion Code (OpenNCC), that now includes a Multiple Time-Scale Flamelet Progress Variable approach and a the semi-empirical two-equation soot model. We injected massless tracer particles upstream of the injector region of the combustor to collect time-history statistics of the solution variables. The correlations between the collected statistics with respect to the experimental soot volume fraction data showed that time-history effect of certain flow variables, including turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and multiple species is indeed important for soot formation. We then conducted a time-history based correlation analysis to determine the key species and the concentration ranges critical for soot formation (C6H5-based nucleation, acetylene-based surface growth, and oxidation with OH and O2). Based on the time-history correlation coefficient (THCC) analysis, we propose possible modifications to improve the current two-equation model.

LES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Robust statistical reconstruction for charged particle tomography

Systems and methods for charged particle detection including statistical reconstruction of object volume scattering density profiles from charged particle tomographic data to determine the probability distribution of charged particle scattering using a statistical multiple scattering model and determine a substantially maximum likelihood estimate of object volume scattering density using expectation maximization (ML/EM) algorithm to reconstruct the object volume scattering density. The presence of and/or type of object occupying the volume of interest can be identified from the reconstructed volume scattering density profile. The charged particle tomographic data can be cosmic ray muon tomographic data from a muon tracker for scanning packages, containers, vehicles or cargo. The method can be implemented using a computer program which is executable on a computer.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Correlated Statistical Uncertainties in Coded-Aperture Imaging

In nuclear security applications, coded-aperture imagers provide the opportu- nity for a wealth of information regarding the attributes of both the radioac- tive and non-radioactive components of the objects being imaged. However, for optimum benefit to the community, spatial attributes need to be deter- mined in a quantitative and statistically meaningful manner. To address the deficiency of quantifiable errors in coded-aperture imaging, we present uncer- tainty matrices containing covariance terms between image pixels for MURA mask patterns. We calculated these correlated uncertainties as functions of variation in mask rank, mask pattern over-sampling, and whether or not anti- mask data are included. Utilizing simulated point source data, we found that correlations (and inverse correlations) arose when two or more image pixels were summed. Furthermore, we found that the presence of correlations (and their inverses) was heightened by the process of over-sampling, while correla- tions were suppressed by the inclusion of anti-mask data and with increased mask rank. As an application of this result, we explore how statistics-based alarming in nuclear security is impacted.

Fleenor, Matthew C↗

DOE OSTI2016

Performance analysis of Wald-statistic based network detection methods for radiation sources

There have been increasingly large deployments of radiation detection networks that require computationally fast algorithms to produce prompt results over ad-hoc sub-networks of mobile devices, such as smart-phones. These algorithms are in sharp contrast to complex network algorithms that necessitate all measurements to be sent to powerful central servers. In this work, at individual sensors, we employ Wald-statistic based detection algorithms which are computationally very fast, and are implemented as one of three Z-tests and four chi-square tests. At fusion center, we apply the K-out-of-N fusion to combine the sensors hard decisions. We characterize the performance of detection methods by deriving analytical expressions for the distributions of underlying test statistics, and by analyzing the fusion performances in terms of K, N, and the false-alarm rates of individual detectors. We experimentally validate our methods using measurements from indoor and outdoor characterization tests of the Intelligence Radiation Sensors Systems (IRSS) program. In particular, utilizing the outdoor measurements, we construct two important real-life scenarios, boundary surveillance and portal monitoring, and present the results of our algorithms.

Sen, Satyabrata↗