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At least 1,135 records · Page 63
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades

The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Finally, potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the diversity of the West African monsoon system change projected by CORDEX-CORE regional climate models

Understanding real uncertainties in projections is needed to support actions of decision and policy makers. In this study, two state-of-the-art regional climate models with ~ 25 km horizontal resolution forced with three different global climate models are employed to investigate the response of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system under the low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We make a step towards assessing the plausibility of rainfall change (ΔPr) patterns based on the models’ ability to realistically represent the WAM system under the historical period, and by analyzing changes in mechanisms associated with ΔPr patterns. Under global warming, experiments exhibit diverse ΔPr patterns underpinned by different combinations of mechanisms operating simultaneously. A dipole-like surface pressure change between the Sahara Desert and the Guinea Coast appears to be a differentiating factor between experiments featuring homogeneous or increased rainfall over all or a part of the Sahel from those simulating heterogeneous or reduced rainfall over the same domain. This dipole acts by modulating the amount and the extent of deepening of the monsoon flux inland, and hence the latitudinal positioning of the monsoon convective system. This process contributes to moistening the whole or central and eastern Sahel in some experiments while drying the Guinea Coast. The West African Westerly Jet (WAWJ) is responsible for strengthening and moistening the western Sahel under RCP2.6. However, the WAMJ becomes much stronger under RCP8.5 and may have contributed to the drying of the western Sahel by shifting moisture eastwards in addition to the mid-tropospheric moisture divergence through enhanced African Easterly Jet. Furthermore, for experiments expecting wetting (drying) of the Sahel, the strengthening (weakening) of the tropical easterly jet may have contributed to the projected intensification (reduction) of WAM rainfall by favoring uplift (downlift) above 600 hPa. It also emerges that the ΔPr patterns from REMO2015 experiments are likely more plausible than those from RegCM4-v7. The impacts of strong warming on the regional hydrological cycle are further investigated and we found that changes gradually intensify with the level of radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of mitigating warming as recommended by the Paris agreement.

CORDEX-CORE↗
NASA NTRS2020

Fast Responses on Pre-Industrial Climate from Present-Day Aerosols in A CMIP6 Multi-Model Study

In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterized by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol-induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and presumably a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, forcing possibly the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemisphere despite that aerosols' effects on temperature and precipitation are only partly realized in these simulations as the sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. An interesting feature in aerosol-induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.

Pre-industrial climate↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble From 1920 to 2100

To provide context for observed sea level rise, the forced response (FR) in dynamic sea level (DSL) during the 20th and 21st centuries is examined in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LE). After accounting for simulation drift, which in the LE is sizable, the DSL FR is found to be complex, both in space and time. Its evolving character is suggested to arise from both the diversity and transient evolution of climate forcing agents and the slow adjustment timescales of the intermediate and deep oceans. Nonetheless, various intervals of spatially coherent change simulated for the recent past and near future are identified, and their characteristics and associated driving mechanisms are identified and discussed. The mid- to late-20th century DSL FR is characterized by an hemispherically asymmetric pattern of change, with depressed rates of rise in the northern oceans. There is also a dipole of change in the Southern Ocean caused by changes in near-surface zonal winds. Through the late 20th and early 21st centuries, a different pattern of rise emerges with elevated rates in the tropics and depressed rates at high latitudes. Zonal and interbasin variations characterize both intervals and involve the pattern and depth of anomalous ocean heat content storage and spatial contrasts in the expansion coefficient tied mainly to base state temperature, with greater rates of rise in warm regions per unit warming. Finally, the relative roles of surface flux and ocean convergence anomalies are examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Improved Simulation of Precipitation on Evapotranspiration and Its Partitioning Over Land

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle, which is strongly modulated by the occurrence of different rainfall intensities. Global climate models (GCMs) commonly suffer from “too much light rain” and a negative bias in the ratio of transpiration (T) to ET (T/ET). It is unclear whether these biases are related. Here, in this work, we show that with the improved simulation of probability density functions of rainfall intensity by suppressing light-rain occurrence using a stochastic convection parameterization in the NCAR CESM1.2, the canopy T increases in tropical forests while evaporation from canopy interception and bare soil decreases. The simulated T/ET is increased by 2.5% globally and up to 8% regionally, primarily attributable to reduced fraction of wet leaves due to less frequent light rain despite its weak intensity. These results imply that excessive light rain is an important cause of the negative T/ET bias in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights Into Nature-Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability

Successful implementation of forest management as a nature-based climate solution is dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change, much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multidecadal projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of management-induced changes in resilience to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Vulnerability of existing and planned coal-fired power plants in Developing Asia to changes in climate and water resources

Coal power generation dominates electricity supply in Developing Asia, and more than 400 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired capacity is planned for operation by 2030. Past studies on thermal electricity-water nexus have not accounted for this new capacity, and use coarse spatial and temporal resolutions in the assessment of long-term power system reliability. Here, high-resolution hydro-climatic simulations and asset-level power plant water use models are integrated to quantify water constraints on coal-fired power plants in Developing Asia, for different scenarios of future climate change, cooling system choice, and capacity expansion. Future climate change and capacity expansion decrease the annual usable capacity factor (UF) of coal power generation in Mongolia, Southeast Asia, and parts of India and China. The negative impacts are lessened by widening the geographic areas of aggregation. Under near-term mitigation scenarios with high penetrations of CO 2 capture technology, the regional average water withdrawal intensity of coal power generation is 50–80% higher than current conditions. With careful siting, the increased water withdrawal intensity does not necessarily constrain future electricity production on annual or monthly time scales, but decreases system reliability by increasing the probability of low UF at daily time scale. Our findings highlight the unaccounted-for-risk in Developing Asia's long-term power plan featuring coal power generation. Regional capacity expansion should consider the reliability of future thermal power assets under long-term hydroclimate change using high-resolution models and multiple scenarios.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Historical and Future Windstorms in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale windstorms represent an important atmospheric hazard in the Northeastern US (NE) and are associated with substantial socioeconomic losses. Regional simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using lateral boundary conditions from three Earth System Models (ESMs: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and Max Planck Institute (MPI)) are used to quantify possible future changes in windstorm characteristics and/or changes in the parent cyclone types responsible for windstorms. WRF nested within MPI ESM best represents important aspects of historical windstorms and the cyclone types responsible for generating windstorms compared with a reference simulation performed with the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the historical climate. The spatial scale and frequency of the largest windstorms in each simulation defined using the greatest extent of exceedance of local 99.9th percentile wind speeds (U > U999) plus 50-year return period wind speeds (U50,RP) do not exhibit secular trends. Projections of extreme wind speeds and windstorm intensity/frequency/geolocation and dominant parent cyclone type associated with windstorms vary markedly across the simulations. Only the MPI nested simulations indicate statistically significant differences in windstorm spatial scale, frequency and intensity over the NE in the future and historical periods. This model chain, which also exhibits the highest fidelity in the historical climate, yields evidence of future increases in 99.9th percentile 10 m height wind speeds, the frequency of simultaneous U > U999 over a substantial fraction (5–25%) of the NE and the frequency of maximum wind speeds above 22.5 ms−1. These geophysical changes, coupled with a projected doubling of population, leads to a projected tripling of a socioeconomic loss index, and hence risk to human systems, from future windstorms.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗
NASA NTRS1999

Modeling Mesoscale Eddies in the North Atlantic Ocean

Ocean modeling plays an important role in understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting the future climate change. Modeling the ocean at eddy-permitting and/or eddy resolving resolutions (1/3 degree or higher) has a two-fold objective. One part is to represent the ocean as realistically as possible, because mesoscale eddies have an impact on the large-scale circulation. The second objective is to learn how to represent effects of mesoscale eddies without explicitly resolving them. This is particularly important for climate models which cannot be run at eddy-resolving resolutions because of the computational constraints. At JPL, a 1/6 degree latitude by 1/6 degree longitude with 37 vertical levels Atlantic Ocean model has been developed. The model is based on the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Using the 256-processor Cray T3D, we have conducted a 40-year integration of this Atlantic eddy-resolving ocean model. A regional analysis demonstrate that many observed features associated with the Caribbean Sea eddies can be realistically simulated by this model. Analysis of this Atlantic eddy-resolving ocean model further suggests that these Caribbean Sea eddies are connected with eddies formed outside the Caribbean Sea at the confluence of the North Brazil Current (NBC) and the North Equatorial Countercurrent. The diagram of the model simulated surface current shows that the Caribbean eddies ultimately originate in the NBC retroflection region, traveling more than a year from the North Brazil coast through the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean Sea and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. Additional information is contained in the original.

Chao, Yi↗
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluation of Global Observations-Based Evapotranspiration Datasets and IPCC AR4 Simulations

Quantification of global land evapotranspiration (ET) has long been associated with large uncertainties due to the lack of reference observations. Several recently developed products now provide the capacity to estimate ET at global scales. These products, partly based on observational data, include satellite ]based products, land surface model (LSM) simulations, atmospheric reanalysis output, estimates based on empirical upscaling of eddycovariance flux measurements, and atmospheric water balance datasets. The LandFlux-EVAL project aims to evaluate and compare these newly developed datasets. Additionally, an evaluation of IPCC AR4 global climate model (GCM) simulations is presented, providing an assessment of their capacity to reproduce flux behavior relative to the observations ]based products. Though differently constrained with observations, the analyzed reference datasets display similar large-scale ET patterns. ET from the IPCC AR4 simulations was significantly smaller than that from the other products for India (up to 1 mm/d) and parts of eastern South America, and larger in the western USA, Australia and China. The inter-product variance is lower across the IPCC AR4 simulations than across the reference datasets in several regions, which indicates that uncertainties may be underestimated in the IPCC AR4 models due to shared biases of these simulations.

Mueller, B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations

Overview The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model is an open-source geospatial python package that provides new power plant locations at a 1km resolution. The model ingests U.S. state or regional-scale electricity system capacity expansion plans, such as those produced by the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), and identifies feasible, site-specific locations for individual new power plants (renewable and non-renewable). CERF combines high-resolution geospatial suitability analyses with an economic algorithm that selects individual plant siting locations based on grid interconnection costs and the locational marginal value of new generation. The model incorporates a wide range of dynamic constraints and opportunities, such as protected lands, population density, existing infrastructure, and water availability. This dataset provides CERF power plant siting results for IM3 Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 CERF siting results in this dataset correspond to capacity expansion plans in the GCAM-USA IM3 Phase 2 simulation data and are available for each of the above scenarios. Data Details Temporal Range: 2015-2055 in 5-year timesteps. Note that 2015 is the experiment base year and 2020 and beyond represent model simulation years. Spatial Range: Plant locations are provided for the eleven states in the Western US including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Spatial Resolution: 1 km-squared, provided in x and y coordinates Geospatial Projection: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) File Type: csv The dataset contains subdirectories for each of the eight scenarios described in the overview. Each scenario folder contains two subfolders with the following information: 1. Power Plant Data This directory contains a single .csv file of power plant locations for both pre-existing (non-CERF sited plants in operation in 2015) and new (CERF-sited) power plants across the temporal range along with additional CERF model output parameters for CERF-sited plants. Plant with a siting year earlier than 2020 correspond to facilities that are operational leading into the first timestep CERF simulation. For a more detailed description of CERF model output parameters, see the CERF model documentation. Note that the cerf_plant_id parameter is unique within each scenario file but not across scenario files. Parameter Descriptions scenario - Name of scenario cerf_plant_id - Unique siting identifier cerf_sited - If True, indicates that plant was sited by CERF model. If False, indicates pre-existing facility region_name - Name of region (state) tech_id - Technology ID tech_name - Full generation technology name inclusive of cooling type (if applicable) and additional characteristics tech_simple - Simplified generation technology type unit_size_mw - Power plant unit size (MW) xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) index - Index position in the flattend 2D array buffer_in_km - Exclusion buffer around site (km) sited_year - Year of siting retirement_year - Year of retirement lmp_zone - Locational marginal price (LMP) zone ID locational_marginal_price_usd_per_mwh - Locational marginal price ($/MWh) generation_mwh_per_year - Generation output (MWh/yr) operating_cost_usd_per_year - Cost of plant operations ($/yr) net_operational_value - Net operational value based on LMP and and operating costs ($/yr) interconnection_cost - Cost of interconnection for transmission & gas pipeline (if applicable) net_locational_cost -- Difference of interconnection cost and operating value ($/yr) capacity_factor_fraction - Capacity factor (fraction) carbon_capture_rate_fraction - Carbon capture rate (fraction) fuel_co2_content_tons_per_btu - Fuel CO2 content (tons/Btu) fuel_price_usd_per_mmbtu - Fuel price ($/MMBtu) fuel_price_esc_rate_fraction - Fuel price escalation rate (fraction) heat_rate_btu_per_kWh - Heat rate (Btu/kWh) lifetime_yrs - Technology lifetime for annuity (years) operational_life_yrs - Operational lifetime for retirement (years) variable_om_usd_per_mwh - Variable operation and maintenance costs of yearly capacity use ($/MWh) variable_om_esc_rate_fraction - Variable operation and maintenance costs escalation rate (fraction) carbon_tax_usd_per_ton - Carbon tax ($/ton) carbon_tax_esc_rate_fraction - Carbon tax escalation rate (fraction) 2. Storage Data This directory contains information on new and pre-existing energy storage facilities operational in each timestep along with various storage operational parameters. The 2015 timestep provides pre-existing energy storage data and corresponds with facilities that are operational leading into the first model simulation timestep. Note that coordinates in the storage files correspond to the interconnection point on the grid (substation location), not individual energy storage locations. Energy storage is added in a cumulative process at each given interconnection point. That is, each individual file provides the total operational storage capacity interconnected to the specified substation for the given timestep, inclusive of previously installed storage at that location and new storage installed in that timestep at that location. Parameters scenario - Name of scenario timestep - Simulation timestep name - Unique storage identifier s_typ - Type of energy storage technology (battery or pumped storage hydro) s_node - Node ID of interconnecting substation xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) charge_rate - Maximum charge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) discharge_rate - Maximum discharge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) duration - Duration of storage system (hours) max_SoC - Allowed maximum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) min_SoC -Allowed minimum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) charge_eff - Efficiency of charge (fraction between 0 and 1) discharge_eff - Efficiency of discharge (fraction between 0 and 1) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

CERF↗
DOE OSTI2024

An experimental investigation on the CO 2 storage capacity of the composite confining system

Assuring secure containment of stored CO 2 is of paramount importance—for climate change mitigation, for permitting, and for reassuring the public. Regional seals, such as those sealing petroleum accumulations, have proven to be effective for securing CO 2 . However, the goal of permanent sequestration can also be satisfied with “composite confining systems” consisting of multiple, possibly discontinuous flow barriers that, in aggregate, create a system with very high permeability anisotropy and effectively retard the vertical migration of CO 2 . This study focuses on investigating the barrier characteristics necessary for effective containment of CO 2 , using both physical flow experiments and modified invasion percolation simulations. The simulations are calibrated to the physical experiments and are used to further extend the analysis. Results show that for a composite confining system, a) even barriers with low capillary entry pressure contrast to the underlying flow unit can divert rising CO 2 ; b) curved or anticlinal barrier topography can enhance CO 2 trapping; c) fining-upward gradations make little difference to barrier effectiveness or CO 2 retention; d) longer barriers retain more CO 2 regardless of barrier topography. Finally, field-scale simulations have demonstrated the importance of barrier length for increasing CO 2 storage capacity. Furthermore, the results presented can be used to inform the development of new screening criteria for characterization and effectiveness of composite confining systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Simulations Suggest Biomass Burning Aerosol Emissions From Grassland Fires Could Be Important Ice Nucleating Particles

Ice nucleating particles (INP) capable of nucleating ice crystals via immersion freezing at temperatures above approximately −35°C may strongly influence cloud glaciation, with implications for global precipitation and climate feedback. In addition to mineral dust, soil dust, and marine organics, laboratory and field measurements suggest biomass burning aerosols (BBA) can act as immersion-mode INP between around −30°C and −15°C. However, the contribution of BBA to the global INP budget remains poorly understood due to poor knowledge of which fuels yield INPs, uncertainties in global coverage of those fuels, and unknown size distributions of the INPs in the BBA. Nonetheless, with some understanding of these uncertainties from sensitivity studies, the relative importance of ice nucleation activity of BBA compared to other INP sources can be quantified. In this work, we investigate the potential global importance of BBA as INP using a global aerosol-climate model, specifically the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). We evaluate the model using field campaign data sets. We examine potential uncertainties in fuel types and particle sizes on BBA-based INP concentrations. Averaged over June–September between 15°S and 50°S, BBA is a more important INP than dust and marine INP about 30% of the time at altitudes with temperatures between −30°C and −20°C. Our simulations therefore suggest BBA INPs may be at least as important as mineral dust and marine INP over the atmospheric regions and seasons where grassland fires are frequent.

Gohil, Kanishk [Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsb↗
NASA NTRS2004

Economic Impact of Water Allocation on Agriculture in the Lower Chattahoochee River Basin

The relative value of irrigation water was assessed for three important crops (corn, cotton, and peanuts) grown in the southeastern United States. A decision tool was developed with the objective of allocating limited available water among competing crops in a manner that would maximize the economic returns to the producers. The methodology was developed and tested for a hypothetical farm located in Henry County, Alabama in the Chattahoochee river basin. Crop yield - soil moisture response functions were developed using Monte Carlo simulated data for cotton, corn, and peanuts. A hydrologic model was employed to simulate runoff over the period of observed rainfall the county to provide inflows to storage facilities that could be used as constraints for the optimal allocation of the available water in the face of the uncertainty of future rainfall and runoff. Irrigation decisions were made on a weekly basis during the critical water deficit period in the region. An economic optimization model was employed with the crop responses, and soil moisture functions to determine the optimum amount of water place on each crop subject to the amount of irrigation water availability and climatic uncertainty. The results indicated even small amounts of irrigation could significantly benefit farmers in the region if applied judiciously. A weekly irrigation sequence was developed that maintained the available water on the crops that exhibited the most significant combination of water sensitivity and cash value.

Limaye, Ashutosh S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

An Intercomparison of Changes Associated with Earth's Lower Tropospheric Temperature Using Traditional and AMIP-Style Reanalyses

Reanalyses have become an integral tool for evaluating regional and global climate variations, and an important component of this is modifications to the energy budget. Reductions in Arctic Sea ice extent has induced an albedo feedback, causing the Arctic to warm more rapidly than anywhere else in the world, referred to as "Arctic Amplification." This has been demonstrated by observations and numerous reanalyses, including the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). However, the Arctic Amplification signal is non-existent in a ten member ensemble of the MERRA-2 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (M2AMIP) simulations, using the same prescribed climate forcing, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ice. An evaluation of the temperature tendency within the lower troposphere due to radiation, moisture, and dynamics as well as the surface energy budget in MERRA-2 and M2AMIP will demonstrate that despite identical prescribed SSTs and sea ice in both versions, enhanced warming in the Arctic in MERRA-2 is in response to the analysis increment tendency due to temperature observations. Furthermore, the role of boundary conditions, model biases and changes in observing systems on the Arctic Amplification signal will be assessed. Literature on the topic of Arctic Amplification demonstrates that the enhanced warming begins in the mid-1990s. Anomalously warm Arctic SST in the early time period of MERRA-2 can mute the trend in Arctic lower troposphere temperature without the constraint of observations in M2AMIP. Additionally, MERRA-2 uses three distinct datasets of SST and sea ice concentration, which also plays a role.

Arcti↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resolving Away Stratocumulus Biases in Modern Global Climate Models

Abstract Increased horizontal and vertical resolution in global atmospheric models can reduce a significant amount of the biases associated with subtropical marine stratocumulus. The sensitivity of offshore and coastal marine stratocumulus to different horizontal and vertical resolutions has been investigated by using Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) coupled with the novel Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement which has been demonstrated as a viable tool to improve the representation of marine stratocumulus while saving computational cost. Our study shows that high vertical resolution is the key to improve marine stratocumulus simulations in E3SM. Concurrent horizontal and vertical resolution increases are needed for substantial overall reduction of stubborn marine stratocumulus biases over the coastal region but not necessarily in the offshore area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of WRF (v 4.2.1) dynamically downscaled precipitation on subdaily and daily timescales over CONUS

Abstract. This study analyzes the quality of simulated historical precipitation across the contiguous United States (CONUS) in a 12 km Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.2.1 (WRF v 4.2.1)-based dynamical downscaling of the fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). This work addresses the following questions. First, how well are the 3 and 24 h precipitation characteristics (diurnal and annual cycles, precipitation frequency, annual and seasonal mean and maximum precipitation, and distribution of seasonal maximum precipitation) represented in the downscaled simulation, compared to ERA5? And second, how does the performance of the simulated WRF precipitation vary across seasons, regions, and timescales? Performance is measured against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC) 4 km Stage IV and Oregon State University Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data on 3 and 24 h timescales, respectively. Our analysis suggests that the 12 km WRF exhibits biases typically found in other WRF simulations, including those at convection-permitting scales. In particular, WRF simulates both the timing and magnitude of the summer diurnal precipitation peak as well as ERA5 over most of the CONUS, except for a delayed diurnal peak over the Great Plains. As compared to ERA5, both the month and the magnitude of the precipitation peak annual cycle are remarkably improved in the downscaled WRF simulation. WRF slightly overestimates 3 and 24 h precipitation maximum over the CONUS, in contrast to ERA5, which generally underestimates these quantities mainly over the eastern half of the CONUS. Notably, WRF better captures the probability density distribution (PDF) of 3 and 24 h annual and seasonal maximum precipitation. WRF exhibits seasonally dependent precipitation biases across the CONUS, while ERA5's biases are relatively consistent year round over most of the CONUS. These results suggest that dynamical downscaling to a higher resolution improves upon some precipitation metrics but is susceptible to common regional climate model biases. Consequently, if used as input data for domain-specific models, we suggest moderate bias correction be applied to the dynamically downscaled product.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Participation in the GISS EOS Proposal

To model the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets, Research Assistant Veronique Bugnion developed a snowpack model which embodies a physically based approach to modeling the temperature and density distribution of a snow, firn, and ice mixture. The snowpack model performed satisfactorily in capturing the surface energy balance and melt amounts measured at stations in Greenland and Antarctica. Also a comparison between the predicted extent of the wet snow zone obtained with the model and the same quantity derived from satellite microwave measurements showed excellent agreement. In addition the model's simulated total runoff was close to the best estimates from observations for the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Ms. Bugnion and research scientist Andrei Sokolov coupled the snowpack model to the climate submodel of MIT's Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and integrated forward over the 21st century for a range of climate change scenarios, using forcings from simulations with the IGSM. The changes in mass balance of the ice caps were then translated into changes in sea level. For the scenarios with small to moderate warming, the runoff from Greenland and Antarctica is minimal. For the scenarios with a larger warming, there is a net increase in sea-level of 2-3 cm from Greenland, and a decrease of between 2 and 5 cm from Antarctica. These results show that the net change in sea level which can be expected to follow climatic changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, a decrease of 2 to 4 cm or less by the end of the 21st century, is smaller than most previously published estimates.

Stone, Peter H.↗