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DOE OSTI2023

Regional Heatwave Prediction Using Graph Neural Network and Weather Station Data

Abstract Heatwaves lead to catastrophic consequences on public health and the economy. Accurate and timely predictions of regional heatwaves can improve climate preparedness and foster decision‐making to alleviate the burdens due to climate change. In this paper, we propose a heatwave prediction algorithm based on a novel deep learning model, that is, Graph Neural Network (GNN). This new GNN framework can provide real time warnings of the sudden occurrence of regional heatwaves with high accuracy at lower costs of computation and data collection. In addition, its interpretable structure unravels the spatiotemporal patterns of regional heatwaves and helps to enrich our understanding of the general climate dynamics and the causal influences between locations. The proposed GNN framework can be applied for the detection and prediction of other extreme or compound climate events, which calls for future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Regional and Teleconnected Impacts of Solar Radiation‐Topography Interaction Over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Solar radiation‐topography interaction plays an important role in surface energy balance over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, the impacts of such interaction over the TP on climate locally and in the Asian regions remain unclear. This study uses the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to evaluate the regional and teleconnected impacts of solar radiation‐topography interaction over the TP. Land‐atmosphere coupled experiments show that topography regulates the surface energy balance, snow processes, and surface climate over the TP across seasons. Accounting for solar radiation‐topography interaction improves E3SM simulation of surface climate. The winter cold bias in air temperature decreases from −4.57 to −3.79 K, and the wet bias in summer precipitation is mitigated in southern TP. The TP's solar radiation‐topography interaction further reduces the South and East Asian summer precipitation biases. Our results demonstrate the topographic roles in regional climate over the TP and highlight its teleconnected climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Expanded Understanding of the Western Antarctic Peninsula Sea‐Ice Environment Through Local and Regional Observations at Palmer Station

Abstract The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has been experiencing rapid regional warming since at least the 1950s, however, the impacts of this warming at the local scale are variable and nuanced. Previous studies that have linked sea‐ice variability to biogeochemical cycles and food web dynamics often combine local‐scale biogeochemical data with coarse‐resolution regional satellite sea‐ice data, which may not adequately capture local sea‐ice conditions. In this study, we analyzed local‐scale in situ sea‐ice observations collected as part of a 28‐year record (1992–2020) from the Palmer Long‐Term Ecological Research site at Anvers Island, mid‐WAP, in conjunction with isotopically‐derived sea‐ice meltwater (SIM) fractions and satellite‐derived sea‐ice motion and concentration, to quantify the variability and long‐term trends in local sea‐ice behavior. In situ sea ice observations at Palmer Station displayed higher variability than satellite observations and showed no significant declines over this time, despite region‐wide declines identified in prior studies. Higher spring SIM fractions were attributed to strong northward sea‐ice motion throughout the winter. Applying these local‐scale sea‐ice insights to similarly scaled stratification and chlorophyll‐ a measurements, we found that a longer‐lasting, more consistent sea‐ice pack led to greater water column stratification following the spring sea‐ice retreat. Greater sea‐ice persistence and stronger stratification led to larger peaks in chlorophyll‐ a , though sea‐ice metrics did not explain the positive temporal trends in either stratification strength or chlorophyll‐ a . Through this study, we identify how local sea‐ice observations and meltwater data can enhance satellite data to build an understanding of the intricate connections between ice, water column dynamics, and phytoplankton.

Goodell, E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Summer Convective Precipitation Changes Over the Great Lakes Region Under a Warming Scenario

To understand future summer precipitation changes over the Great Lakes Region (GLR), we performed an ensemble of regional climate simulations through the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach. We found that different types of convective precipitation respond differently to the PGW signal. Isolated deep convection (IDC), usually concentrated in the southern domain, shows an increase in precipitation to the north of the GLR. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), usually concentrated upwind of the GLR, shift to the downwind region with increased precipitation. Thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition energy (CIN) are found to increase across almost the entire studied domain, creating a potential environment more favorable for stronger convection systems and less favorable for weaker ones. Meanwhile, changes in the lifting condensation level (LCL) and level of free convection (LFC) show a strong correlation with variations in convective precipitation, highlighting the significance of these thermodynamic factors in controlling precipitation over the domain. Our results indicate that the decrease in LCL and LCF in areas with increased convective precipitation is mainly due to increased atmospheric moisture. In response to the prescribed warming perturbation, MCSs occur more frequently downwind, while localized IDCs exhibit more intense rain rates, longer durations, and larger rainfall area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Madden‐Julian Oscillation on the US Puget Sound Regional Hydroclimate

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two major modes of climate variability with global hydroclimate impacts. However, their impacts often depend on the local climate and geography, resulting in large regional differences. In this study, we examined the connection of ENSO and MJO to the hydroclimate conditions and extremes in the Puget Sound (PS) basin located in the US Pacific Northwest coast. The results indicate that ENSO significantly modulates the cold season temperature and temperature-mediated hydrologic processes. El Niño cold seasons feature less snow accumulation and intensified surface runoff, even if the precipitation amount is similar to La Niña cold seasons. Therefore, El Niño causes more snow drought (in the form of compound dry and warm snow drought) and shifts the surface runoff seasonality by reducing runoff in the subsequent warm season. MJO phases 6–7 trigger more extreme precipitation, temperature, snowmelt, and runoff in the PS region at 0–9–day lags, and such connections are robust regardless of how the ENSO signals are removed. Meanwhile, MJO modulates large-scale extreme weather systems (e.g., atmospheric rivers) with significant enhancement during phases 6–7. ENSO impacts have intensified in the 2001–2020 period, whereas MJO impacts showed some phase shift in this period. This study reveals ENSO and MJO phases 6–7 as useful predictors of the PS hydroclimate anomalies/extremes at seasonal and daily scales, respectively. Utilizing these findings holds the potential to improve regional water resources prediction and management.

ENSO↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins

Droughts across the U.S. have imposed substantial challenges to the management of water resources. Reservoir drought, one type of hydrological drought, is characterized by abnormally low reservoir storage levels, reflecting combined impacts of natural water shortages and water management practices. We investigate how reservoir drought signatures, particularly onset, severity, duration, recovery and frequency, may shift under rising temperatures, and how these shifts vary by reservoir typology and degree of regulation. By coupling atmosphere-land-river models with reservoir operations at ~12-km resolution, we simulated reservoir storage and characterized reservoir droughts across five heavily regulated U.S. basins. Our findings reveal significant regional and functional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under the scenario of rising temperatures. Reservoirs in the Texas-Gulf region are projected to become more resilient, while systems in the Upper Colorado and South Atlantic-Gulf regions face increased risk due to prolonged drought durations and slower recovery. With respect to primary function, reservoirs used for irrigation and hydropower, particularly those with smaller storage capacity and lower degrees of regulation, are most susceptible to future drought stress. These results are valuable in understanding water availability in highly regulated environments, and the influence of hydrometeorological conditions on storage dynamics. Overall, this study provides the first of its kind benchmark for reservoir droughts at a continental scale to support evolving multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts. Future research is needed to link reservoir drought conditions to actual supply shortages across competing water uses, while leveraging existing adaptive management strategies and coordinated reservoir operations.

reservoir↗

DOE OSTI2021

Regulation of the EphA2 receptor intracellular region by phosphomimetic negative charges in the kinase-SAM linker

Eph receptor tyrosine kinases play a key role in cell-cell communication. Lack of structural information on the entire multi-domain intracellular region of any Eph receptor has hindered understanding of their signaling mechanisms. Here, we use integrative structural biology to investigate the structure and dynamics of the EphA2 intracellular region. EphA2 promotes cancer malignancy through a poorly understood non-canonical form of signaling involving serine/threonine phosphorylation of the linker connecting its kinase and SAM domains. We show that accumulation of multiple linker negative charges, mimicking phosphorylation, induces cooperative changes in the EphA2 intracellular region from more closed to more extended conformations and perturbs the EphA2 juxtamembrane segment and kinase domain. In cells, linker negative charges promote EphA2 oligomerization. We also identify multiple kinases catalyzing linker phosphorylation. Our findings suggest multiple effects of linker phosphorylation on EphA2 signaling and imply that coordination of different kinases is necessary to promote EphA2 non-canonical signaling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Magnetic field mapping of inaccessible regions using physics-informed neural networks

A difficult problem concerns the determination of magnetic field components within an experimentally inaccessible region when direct field measurements are not feasible. In this paper, we propose a new method of accessing magnetic field components using non-disruptive magnetic field measurements on a surface enclosing the experimental region. Magnetic field components in the experimental region are predicted by solving a set of partial differential equations (Ampere’s law and Gauss’ law for magnetism) numerically with the aid of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). Prediction errors due to noisy magnetic field measurements and small number of magnetic field measurements are regularized by the physics information term in the loss function. We benchmark our model by comparing it with an older method. The new method we present will be of broad interest to experiments requiring precise determination of magnetic field components, such as searches for the neutron electric dipole moment.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty of 21st Century western U.S. snowfall loss derived from regional climate model large ensemble

Abstract The western United States is dependent on winter snowfall over its major mountain ranges, which gradually melts each year, serving as a natural reservoir for water resources. In a future warmer climate, much of this snowfall could be replaced by rain, making it more challenging to capture and store water. In this study, we utilize an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations forced by 14 global climate models (GCMs). These GCMs project wildly different futures, in terms of both temperature and precipitation change, producing significant uncertainty in snowfall projections. Here we exploit the robust statistics of the downscaled ensemble, and diagose the sensitivity of end-of-century snowfall loss across the region to both warming and regional wetting/drying in the driving GCM. The windward slopes of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades are particularly sensitive to warming (losing ~ 15% annual snowfall per degree warming), with little influence of precipitation. By contrast, snowfall loss in the inter-mountain west is less sensitive to warming (~ 5% K −1 ), but is significantly offset/exacerbated by precipitation changes (~ 0.5% snow per 1% precipitation). Combining such sensitivities with the warming and regional precipitation signals in the full CMIP6 ensemble, we can fully quantify likely snowfall loss and its uncertainty at any location, for any emissions scenario. We find that the western U.S. as a whole will lose 34 ± 8% of its total volumetric snowfall by end-of-century under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario, but 25 ± 6% and 17 ± 6% under the lower-emissions SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios.

Norris, Jesse (ORCID:0000000289883326)↗

DOE OSTI2025

The global Sahel monsoon ocean-pressure index reconciles its regional and large-scale features

Monitoring Sahelian rainfall variability is increasingly critical as climate extremes intensify across the region. Here, we develop the Sahelian Monsoon Ocean-Pressure Index (SMOPI), a novel global synthetic indicator constructed from five dynamically coherent sea-level pressure regions statistically linked to June-September Sahel monsoon rainfall. SMOPI captures intra-seasonal and interannual variability, and crucially, reflects the influence of both regional processes and large-scale teleconnections on monsoon dynamics. It aligns with the dominant rainfall variability mode in reanalyses and 29 CMIP6 models. Strong/positive SMOPI phases coincide with wet years and are associated with enhanced convergence, favorable jet configurations, and robust Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean teleconnections. Conversely, weak/negative SMOPI phases correspond to drought conditions and divergent moisture fluxes. SMOPI exposes model failures in reproducing historical droughts and offers new physical insights into rainfall-driving mechanisms. It stands out as a scalable, potentially transferable diagnostic tool for monitoring/forecasting and evaluating Sahelian monsoon rainfall under global warming.

Tamoffo, Alain T. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon GmbH, ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial pattern of lake evaporation increases under global warming linked to regional hydroclimate change

Abstract Lakes are critical natural resources that are vulnerable to climate change. In a warmer climate, lake evaporation is projected to increase globally, but with substantial variation between regions. Here, based on ensemble projections of climate and lake models and an attribution method, we show that future lake evaporation increase is strongly modulated by regional hydroclimate change. Specifically, a drying hydroclimate will amplify evaporation increase by enlarging surface vapor pressure deficit and reducing cloud shortwave reflection. Future lake evaporation increase is amplified in tropical America, the Mediterranean and Southeast China with drier future hydroclimates, and dampened in high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau with wetter future hydroclimates. Such spatially coupled changes in lake evaporation and hydroclimate have important implications on regional lake water balance and volume change, which can aggravate water scarcity and flood risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enabling electrochemical N 2 reduction to NH 3 in the low overpotential region using non-noble metal Bi electrodes via surface composition modification

The electrochemical N 2 reduction reaction (ENRR) that can produce NH 3 using water as the hydrogen source at ambient temperature and pressure can be an exciting alternative to the Haber–Bosch process. The major challenge for electrochemical NH 3 production is the competing hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), which seriously limits the faradaic efficiency (FE) for NH 3 production. To date, noble metal electrocatalysts that are inactive for the HER have mainly been investigated for the ENRR. Studies reporting a FE greater than 10% for NH 3 production using non-noble metal catalysts in the low overpotential region (E ≤ 0.2 V vs. RHE) are very rare. This study reports effective electrochemical surface modification strategies that drastically increase the ENRR activity of a non-noble Bi electrode in the low overpotential region and achieve a FE for NH 3 production as high as 13.2% at -0.2 V vs. RHE in pH 7.5 phosphate buffer. Finally, the effect of each of the surface modifications on the activity for the ENRR and the electrode stability during the ENRR were systematically elucidated, which may be used to develop general strategies to enhance the ENRR activities of other non-noble metal electrodes in the low overpotential region.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of private flux region instability in conventional and super-X divertor configurations

Understanding turbulence in the divertor leg of tokamaks is essential to predicting the heat deposition profile on the divertor plate. This in turn is important for evaluating advanced divertor configurations, such as the super-X divertor. Within the divertor region, the private flux region is of interest because it is relatively unaffected by turbulence extending from the outboard midplane, so instabilities in this region could have a particularly pronounced effect on transport. These instabilities are modeled using the Arbitrary Topology Equation Reader (ArbiTER) eigenvalue code. Eigenmodes are examined further by comparing physics models to determine the fundamental mechanisms behind their formation, and quantifying the effect of individual terms. This analysis is conducted on both conventional and super-X divertors to compare these effects. Here, the resulting analysis reveals the presence of a geodesic curvature driven instability that is significantly more pronounced in the super-X configuration.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thin THz QCL active regions for improved continuous-wave operating temperature

We compare the performance of 10 and 5 μm thick metal–metal waveguide terahertz quantum-cascade laser ridges operating around 2.7 THz and based on a 4-well phonon depopulation active region design. Thanks to reduced heat dissipation and lower thermal resistance, the 5 μm thick material shows an 18 K increase in continuous wave operating temperature compared to the 10 μm material, despite a lower maximum pulsed-mode operating temperature and a larger input power density. A maximum continuous wave operating temperature of 129 K is achieved using the 5 μm thick material and a 15 μm wide ridge waveguide, which lased up to 155 K in the pulsed mode. The use of thin active regions is likely to become increasingly important to address the increasing input power density of emerging 2- and 3-well active region designs that show the highest pulsed operating temperatures.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

X-point effects on the ideal MHD modes in tokamaks in the description of dual-poloidal-region safety factor

The flux coordinates with dual-region safety factor (q) in the poloidal direction are developed in this work. The X-point effects on the ideal MHD modes in tokamaks are then analyzed using this coordinate system. Since the X-point effects mainly affect the edge region, the modes localized at the tokamak edge are particularly examined. Two types of modes are studied. The first is related to the conventional peeling or peeling-ballooning modes. The mode existence aligned with the local magnetic field in the poloidally core region as observed experimentally is confirmed. The X points are shown to contribute to a stabilizing effect for the conventionally treated modes with the surface-averaged q and with the tokamak edge portion truncated. The other is the axisymmetric modes localized in the vicinity of X points, which can affect the cross-field-line transport near the X points. The existence of axisymmetric modes points to the possibility of applying a toroidally axisymmetric resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) in the X-point area for mitigating the edge localized modes, which can be an alternative to the current RMP design. The dual q description also has important implications for the existing non-axisymmetric RMP concept. It helps to understand why the RMP suppression of edge localized modes is difficult to achieve in the double-null tokamak configurations and points to the possibility of further improving the current RMP concept by considering the alignment to the local q.

Fourier analysis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pressure Drop Correlation Improvement for the Near-Wall Region of Pebble-Bed Reactors

Packed beds play an important role in several engineering fields, with their applications in nuclear energy being driven by the development of next-generation reactors utilizing pebble fuel. The random nature of a packed pebble bed creates a flow field that is complex and difficult to predict. Porous media models are an attractive option for modeling pebble-bed reactors (PBRs), as they provide intermediate fidelity results and are computationally efficient. Porous media models, however, rely on the use of correlations to estimate the effect of complicated flow features on the pressure drop and heat transfer in the system. Existing correlations were developed to predict the average behavior of the bed, but they are inaccurate in the near-wall region where the presence of the wall affects the pebble packing. This work aims to investigate the accuracy of a porous media model using the Kerntechnischer Ausschuss (KTA) correlation, the most common pressure drop correlation for PBRs compared to the high-fidelity large eddy simulation (LES). A bed of 1568 pebbles is investigated at Reynolds numbers from 625 to 10 000. The bed is divided into five concentric subdomains to compare the average velocity, friction losses, and form losses between the porous media and LES codes. The comparison between the LES simulation and the KTA correlation revealed that the KTA correlation largely underpredicts the form losses in the near-wall region, leading to an overprediction of the velocity near the wall by nearly 30%. An investigation of the form losses across the range of Reynolds numbers in the LES results provided additional insight into how the KTA correlation may be improved to better predict these spatial effects in a pebble bed. These data suggest that the form coefficient near the wall must be increased by 48% while decreasing the form coefficient of the inner bulk region of the bed by 15%. The implementation of these improvements to the KTA correlation in a porous media model produced a radial velocity profile that saw significantly improved agreement with the LES results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Residential energy demand, emissions, and expenditures at regional and income-decile level for alternative futures

Income and its distribution profile are important determinants of residential energy demand and carry direct implications for human well-being and climate. We explore the sensitivity of residential energy systems to income growth and distribution across shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathways scenarios using a global, integrated, multisector dynamics model, Global Change Analysis Model, which tracks national/regional household energy services and fuel choice by income decile. Nation/region energy use patterns across deciles tend to converge over time with aggregate income growth, as higher-income consumers approach satiation levels in floorspace and energy services. However, in some regions, existing within-region inequalities in energy consumption persist over time due to slow income growth in lower income groups. Due to continued differences in fuel types, lower income groups will have higher exposure to household air pollution, despite lower contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that the share of income dedicated to energy is higher for lower deciles, with strong regional differences.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

A single genomic region controls primocane fruiting in tetraploid blackberry

The fresh-market blackberry ( Rubus subgenus Rubus ) industry has expanded dramatically in the past 2 decades, driven in part by improved cultivars. Introgression of the primocane-fruiting (PF; annual flowering) trait into elite germplasm has enabled dual cropping in a single year, season extension, and cultivation in tropical and subtropical regions. Despite its economic performance, the genetic basis of PF is not well understood. It has been proposed that the PF trait is controlled by a major recessive locus, but its genomic location is unclear. Here, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 365 tetraploid blackberry genotypes identified a single genomic region on chromosome Ra03 (∼33 Mb) strongly associated with PF. Genetic linkage analysis in a biparental population confirmed that the same interval (32–35 Mb) was linked to the PF phenotype. Ten putative candidate genes were identified in this region. Allele mining using whole-genome resequencing of 17 genotypes highlighted 2 high-priority candidates: a CCCH-type zinc finger gene and an ubiquitin-specific protease gene. Use of an improved Rubus argutus “Hillquist” genome annotation (v1.2) enabled refined variant interpretation, including identification of regulatory 3′ UTR polymorphisms in the zinc finger homolog. Two diagnostic KASP markers (PF1 and PF2), designed from the most significant GWAS SNPs, predicted the PF phenotype with over 96% accuracy in a validation panel of 494 tetraploid blackberries from multiple breeding programs. Together, these results provide the first high-resolution mapping of the PF locus in blackberry, identify candidate genes for flowering regulation in Rubus , and deliver diagnostic markers that can be immediately deployed in breeding programs.

GWAS↗