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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

Extending Parsimonious Bayesian Inference

Parsimonious Bayesian inference is a theoretical framework for efficient data assimilation that seeks to balance increased consistency between predictions and training data against corresponding increases in model complexity. Within this framework, over-training is understood as optimization that encodes excessive information within model parameters while only achieving small improvements between predictions and training data. This project aims to develop practical methods of limiting excess model information during optimization. One key observation is that practical heuristics for parsimonious learning in high-dimensions must balance expressivity, i.e. the ability of the model to capture diverse predictions with only a few non-zero parameters, against discoverability, i.e. the ability to train the model with gradient-based optimization and drive parameters to low information states. As such, we developed logical activation functions that are able to adaptively approximate arbitrary truth tables that define Boolean logic operations within a probabilistic framework. These functions have demonstrated the ability to learn exclusive disjunction (XOR) and conditioned disjunction (if [condition] then [result_if_true] else [result_if_false]) within a single layer of a neural network. To efficiently exploit these activation functions to drive parsimonious learning required several other advances within the domain of variational inference. The most efficient form of complexity suppression is structured sparsification, driving most model parameters to zero while achieving the structural coherence among nonzeros needed for bandwidth reduction. Such models are not only far more efficient at suppressing information-theoretic complexity, they also reduce the other forms of complexity (computations, communication, storage, and the number of dependencies needed to evaluate predictions). Aiming to support enhanced sparsification, this project examined new approaches to high-dimensional variational inference that allow us to calibrate and control parameter uncertainty during optimization. By identifying which parameters can sustain sparsifying perturbations with little impact on prediction quality, we can develop better pruning strategies by framing them as approximate Bayesian inference. These advances also open paths to mitigate concerns with deploying advanced learning methods in resource-constrained environments, such as running models on power-limited or communication-limited devices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Alternative Timing and Synchronization Approach for Situational Awareness and Predictive Analytics

Accurate and synchronized timing information is required by power system operators for controlling the grid infrastructure (relays, Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs), etc.) and determining asset positions. Satellite-based global positioning system (GPS) is the primary source of timing information. However, GPS disruptions today (both intentional and unintentional) can significantly compromise the reliability and security of our electric grids. A robust alternate source for accurate timing is critical to serve both as a deterrent against malicious attacks and as a redundant system in enhancing the resilience against extreme events that could disrupt the GPS network. To achieve this, we rely on the highly accurate, terrestrial atomic clock-based network for alternative timing and synchronization. In this paper, we discuss an experimental setup for an alternative timing approach. The data obtained from this experimental setup is continuously monitored and analyzed using various time deviation metrics. We also use these metrics to compute deviations of our clock with respect to the National Institute of Standards and Technologys (NIST) GPS data. The results obtained from these metric computations are elaborately discussed. Finally, we discuss the integration of the procedures involved, like real-time data ingestion, metric computation, and result visualization, in a novel microservices-based architecture for situational awareness.

Chinthavali, Supriya↗

Recent progress in atomic-scale controlled plasma processing

Atomic-scale control in plasma processing is becoming increasingly critical for fabricating of advanced semiconductor devices, particularly as the industry shifts toward three-dimensional (3D) architectures and high-aspect-ratio (HAR) structures. This review presents a comprehensive overview of recent developments in atomic-scale controlled plasma processes, organized along two key directions: the hierarchical structure of plasma–surface interactions and the generational evolution of atomic layer processing (ALP) technologies. We examined the gas phase, where molecular design enables selective generation of ions and radicals; the boundary layer, where transport phenomena govern species delivery into nanoscale features, and the surface, where temperature-dependent reactions and cyclic processing determine etching selectivity and precision. Building on this foundation, we outline five generations of ALP—from thermal atomic layer deposition to transport-aware, temporally and structurally decoupled processes—highlighting the increasing sophistication of process control. The review further explores the transition from empirical recipe development to science-based, data-driven methodologies. By integrating quantum-chemical modeling, advanced diagnostics, and machine learning, we demonstrated how predictive models can link plasma species composition to process outcomes, enabling autonomous and adaptive control strategies. Finally, this review discusses the broader societal implications of plasma process innovation through the E4 quartet: energy and resource efficiency, environmental sustainability, evolutionary advancement, and educational promotion. These principles guide the development of sustainable and intelligent atomic-scale manufacturing technologies that are not only technically advanced but also socially responsible.

Ishikawa, Kenji [Nagoya Univ. (Japan)] (ORCID:0000↗

A Comparison of Pre‐Construction and Operational Wake Loss Estimates for Land‐Based Wind Plants

The overall bias between pre‐construction energy yield assessment (EYA) estimates of wind plant energy production and the achieved operational production is improving in the wind industry, but uncertainty remains high for individual wind plants. Wake effects within wind plants are one of the largest sources of energy loss considered in the EYA process, and previous work shows wake loss estimates to be a major source of disagreement among wind energy consultants who perform EYAs. To better understand the accuracy of wake loss predictions, we compare overall operational wake loss estimates based on supervisory control and data acquisition data to pre‐construction estimates provided by six wind energy consultants for five land‐based wind plants in North America. By augmenting existing approaches for quantifying operational wake losses, we estimate wake losses during the period of record for which operational data are available as well as the expected long‐term wake losses, based on historical reanalysis weather data, to which the EYA estimates are compared. To account for power variations at different turbine locations caused by terrain‐induced wind resource heterogeneity, we correct the operational wake loss estimates using predicted freestream wind speed variations from the Wind Systems Engineering Reynolds‐averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) tool. We identify long‐term corrected operational wake losses between 1.9% and 6.4% for the five plants, with a mean loss of 4%. For the project deemed most acceptable for operational wake loss assessment, which is located in the simplest terrain and isolated from neighboring plants, the mean EYA wake loss estimate is within 0.7 percentage points of the operational value of 6.4%. For most of the remaining plants, results suggest that wake losses are generally overpredicted by 2.6–6.3 percentage points. However, operational wake losses may be underestimated for many of these projects because of spatial wind resource variations not captured by the RANS model, external wake effects that are unaccounted for in the estimation process, and wind plant blockage effects. To better understand factors that contribute to the observed wake losses, we investigate operational wake losses as a function of wind direction and wind speed. As expected, wake losses are generally concentrated near wind directions that are aligned with rows of closely spaced turbines and at below‐rated wind speeds; however, for some projects, the energy produced by the wind plant exceeds the estimated potential energy of the plant without wake interactions for certain wind directions and wind speeds, suggesting inaccurate assumptions in the wake loss estimation method for those plants. Lastly, we compare predicted and operational wake losses for individual wind turbines, finding that even when overall wake losses are predicted accurately, large uncertainty exists at the turbine level.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Artificial Neural Networks for In-Cycle Prediction of Knock Events

Downsized turbocharged engines have been increasingly popular in modern light-duty vehicles due to their fuel efficiency benefits. However, high power density in such engines is achieved thanks to high in-cylinder pressure and temperature conditions that increase knock propensity. Next-cycle control has been studied as a method to reduce the damaging effects of knock by operating the engine in a low knock probability condition. This exploratory study looks at the feasibility of in-cycle knock prediction as a tool for advanced knock control algorithms. A methodology is proposed to 1) choose in-cycle features of the pressure trace that highly correlate with knock events and 2) train artificial neural networks to predict in-cycle knock events before knock onset. The methodology was validated at different operating conditions and different levels of generalization. Precision and recall were used as metrics to evaluate the binary classifier. However, the Fowlkes-Mallows (FM) index was used to compare the result of the clustering algorithm at different operating conditions. The results showed a maximum FM index of 0.7 when the prediction was done at knock onset and a minimum FM index of 0.45 when the prediction was done at spark timing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A systematic comparison of machine learning methods for modeling of dynamic processes applied to combustion emission rate modeling

Ten established, data-driven dynamic algorithms are surveyed and a practical guide for understanding these methods generated. Existing Python programming packages for implementing each algorithm are acknowledged, and the model equations necessary for prediction are presented. A case study on a coal-fired power plant’s NO x emission rates is performed, directly comparing each modeling method’s performance on a mutual system. Each model is evaluated by its root mean squared error (RMSE) on out-of-sample future horizon predictions. Optimal hyperparameters are identified using either an exhaustive search or genetic algorithm. The top five model structures of each method are used to recursively predict future NO x emission rates over a 60-step time horizon. The RMSE at each future timestep is determined, and the recursive output prediction trends compared against measurements in time. The GRU neural network is identified as the best candidate for representing the system, demonstrating accurate and stable predictions across the future horizon by all considered models, while satisfactory performance was observed in several of the ARX/NARX formulations. Finally, these efforts have contributed 1) a concise resource of multiple proven dynamic machine learning methods, 2) a practical guide explaining the use of these methods, effectively lowering the “barrier-to-entry” of deploying such models in control systems, 3) a comparison study evaluating each method’s performance on a mutual system, 4) demonstration of accurate multi-timestep emissions modeling suitable for systems-level control, and 5) generalizable results demonstrating the suitability of each method for prediction over a multi-step future horizon to other complex dynamic systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Semiconducting to Metallic Electronic Landscapes in Defects-Controlled 2D π-d Conjugated Coordination Polymer Thin Films

Two-dimensional coordination polymers (2DCPs) have been predicted to exhibit exotic properties such as superconductivity, topological insulating behavior, catalytic activity, and superior ion transport for energy applications; experimentally, these materials have fallen short of their expectation due to the lack of synthesis protocols that yield continuous, large crystallite domains, and highly ordered thin films with controllable physical and chemical properties. Herein, the fabrication of large-area, highly ordered 2DCP thin films with large crystallite domains using chemical vapor deposition (CVD) approaches is described. It is demonstrated that defects and the packing motifs of 2DCP thin films may be controlled by adjusting the vapor–vapor and vapor–solid interactions of the metal and organic linker precursors during the CVD fabrication process. Such control allows for the fabrication of defects-controlled 2DCP thin films that show either semiconducting or metallic behavior. The findings provide the first demonstration of tuning the electrical properties of sub 100 nm-thick continuous 2DCP thin films by controlling their electronic landscape through defect engineering. As such, it is determined that large-area, highly ordered 2DCP thin films may undergo a semiconducting to metallic transition that is correlated to changes in morphology, crystalline domain sizes, crystallite orientation, defect interactions, and electronic structure.

2D coordination polymers↗

Thermal design analysis for SuperTruck II lithium-titanate battery pack

Here, this paper presents a systematic thermal management analysis for a new lithium-titanate-oxide battery pack to be installed in a SuperTruck II, Class 8 hybrid truck. The authors investigate the feasibility of mounting the battery pack inside the vehicle and air-cooling it with fans supplying conditioned air from the cabin. Moreover, the cells within each module are to be immersed in a heat-transfer fluid to improve temperature homogeneity. A multi-stage thermal analysis is performed to ensure adequate thermal regulation of the battery under the proposed design, considering installation and operational constraints. The authors perform thermal and electrical characterization tests on a single cell. Results inform the development of computational fluid dynamics models of the cells, modules, and pack. Module-level analysis shows that the cell temperatures can be maintained below their upper operational limit of 55 °C with module wall-to-air heat transfer coefficients between 10 and 20 Wm -2 K -1 . Pack-level analysis of distinct configurations determines effective airflow paths for adequate heat transfer and delivers a final battery pack design that achieves sufficient cooling and temperature uniformity. A reduced-order electrothermal model is developed to rapidly predict the transient battery performance and to develop a temperature control strategy.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Air compressor load forecasting using artificial neural network

Air compressor systems are responsible for approximately 10% of the electricity consumed in United States and European Union industry. As many researches have proven the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Network inair compressor performance prediction, there is still a need to forecast the air compressor electrical load profile. The objective of this study is to predict compressed air systems’ electrical load profile, which is valuable to industry practitioners as well as software providers in developing better practice and tools for load managementand look-ahead scheduling programs. Two artificial neural networks, Two-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Networkand Long Short-Term Memory were used to predict an air compressors electrical load. Compressors with three different control mechanisms are evaluated with a total number of 11,874 observations. Here, the forecasts were validated using out-of-sample datasets with 5-fold cross-validation. Models produced average coefficient ofdetermination values from 0.24 to 0.94, average root-mean-square errors from 0.05 kW - 5.83 kW, and meanabsolute scaled errors from 0.20 to 1.33. The results indicate that both artificial neural networks yield goodresults for compressors using variable speed drive (average R 2 = 0.8 and no naïve forecasting), only the longshort-term memory model gives acceptable results for compressors using on/off control (average R 2 = 0.82 and no naïve forecasting), and no satisfactory results are obtained for load/unload type air compressors (models constituting active forecasting).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Data-driven enhancement of coherent structure-based models for predicting instantaneous wall turbulence

Predictions of the spatial representation of instantaneous wall-bounded flows, via coherent structure-based models, are highly sensitive to the geometry of the representative structures employed by them. In this study, we propose a methodology to extract the three-dimensional (3-D) geometry of the statistically significant eddies from multi-point wall-turbulence datasets, for direct implementation into these models to improve their predictions. The methodology is employed here for reconstructing a 3-D statistical picture of the inertial wall coherent turbulence for all canonical wall-bounded flows, across a decade of friction Reynolds number (Re T ). These structures are responsible for the Re T -dependence of the skin-friction drag and also facilitate the inner-outer interactions, making them key targets of structure-based models. The empirical analysis brings out the geometric self-similarity of the large-scale wall-coherent motions and also suggests the hairpin packet as the representative flow structure for all wall-bounded flows, thereby aligning with the framework on which the attached eddy model (AEM) is based. The same framework is extended here to also model the very-large-scaled motions, with a consideration of their differences in internal versus external flows. Implementation of the empirically-obtained geometric scalings for these large structures into the AEM is shown to enhance the instantaneous flow predictions for all three velocity components. Finally, an active flow control system driven by the same geometric scalings is conceptualized, towards favourably altering the influence of the wall coherent motions on the skin-friction drag.

42 ENGINEERING↗

First snowflake divertor experiments in MAST-U tokamak

First snowflake (SF) divertor experiments in the MAST-U tokamak demonstrated steady-state snowflake-plus divertor configurations in 450 kA ohmic L-mode plasmas. The SF divertor configuration features a second poloidal field (PF) null in the divertor region close by or overlapping with the main X-point. The resulting low PF region and two additional divertor legs (strike points) may lead to additional power and particle flux sharing via a hypothesized convective cell, and increased plasma-wetted area and radiation. The free-boundary Grad–Shafranov equilibrium code FIESTA was used to design SF configurations with several inter-null distances and orientations. In the experiment, the SF configurations with inter-null distances 0.13–0.20 m and lasting 0.2–0.3 s were obtained. Parallel connection lengths between the midplane and the outer strike point in the SF configurations (evaluated at field lines 1–2 mm from the separatrix in the midplane) were 25–30 m, higher than in the standard divertor (20–25 m) or the Super-X divertor (25 m). Diagnostic measurements highlighted salient SF features. The infra-red video bolometer diagnostic showed that the radiated power peaking in the PF null region was not as pronounces as in the standard divertor. Divertor ion fluxes measured by target Langmuir probes showed increased ion flux in the plate region where a secondary SF strike point landed, concomitantly with the SF formation. These measurements may suggest that some particle and heat redistribution was taking place in the convective SF zone. The first SF experiments provide a basis for future SF studies in MAST-U tokamak with higher input power, improved plasma control and diagnostic measurements, to be compared with the modeling predictions of plasma convective SF mixing and lower density strike point detachment threshold.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Ultraviolet Superradiance from Mega-Networks of Tryptophan in Biological Architectures

Networks of tryptophan (Trp)–an aromatic amino acid with strong fluorescence response–are ubiquitous in biological systems, forming diverse architectures in transmembrane proteins, cytoskeletal filaments, subneuronal elements, photoreceptor complexes, virion capsids, and other cellular structures. We analyze the cooperative effects induced by ultraviolet (UV) excitation of several biologically relevant Trp mega-networks, thus giving insights into novel mechanisms for cellular signaling and control. Our theoretical analysis in the single-excitation manifold predicts the formation of strongly superradiant states due to collective interactions among organized arrangements of up to >10 5 Trp UV-excited transition dipoles in microtubule architectures, which leads to an enhancement of the fluorescence quantum yield (QY) that is confirmed by our experiments. We demonstrate the observed consequences of this superradiant behavior in the fluorescence QY for hierarchically organized tubulin structures, which increases in different geometric regimes at thermal equilibrium before saturation, highlighting the effect’s persistence in the presence of disorder. Our work thus showcases the many orders of magnitude across which the brightest (hundreds of femtoseconds) and darkest (tens of seconds) states can coexist in these Trp lattices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Online Bayesian State Estimation for Real-Time Monitoring of Growth Kinetics in Thin Film Synthesis

Rapid validation of newly predicted materials through autonomous synthesis requires real-time adaptive control methods that exploit physics knowledge, a capability that is lacking in most systems. Here, in this study, we demonstrate an approach to enable real-time control of thin film synthesis by combining in situ optical diagnostics with a Bayesian state estimation method. We developed a physical model for film growth and applied the direct filter (DF) method for real-time estimation of nucleation and growth rates during pulsed laser deposition (PLD). We validated the approach using simulated and experimental reflectivity data for WSe 2 growth and ultimately deployed the algorithm on an autonomous PLD system during the growth of 1T'-MoTe 2 . The DF robustly estimates growth parameters in real time at early stages of growth, down to 15% monolayer area coverage. This fusion of in situ diagnostics, data assimilation, and physical modeling opens new opportunities in adaptive control of synthesis trajectories toward desired material states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A thousand-genome panel retraces the global spread and adaptation of a major fungal crop pathogen

Human activity impacts the evolutionary trajectories of many species worldwide. Global trade of agricultural goods contributes to the dispersal of pathogens reshaping their genetic makeup and providing opportunities for virulence gains. Understanding how pathogens surmount control strategies and cope with new climates is crucial to predicting the future impact of crop pathogens. Here, we address this by assembling a global thousand-genome panel of Zymoseptoria tritici, a major fungal pathogen of wheat reported in all production areas worldwide. We identify the global invasion routes and ongoing genetic exchange of the pathogen among wheat-growing regions. We find that the global expansion was accompanied by increased activity of transposable elements and weakened genomic defenses. Finally, we find significant standing variation for adaptation to new climates encountered during the global spread. Our work shows how large population genomic panels enable deep insights into the evolutionary trajectory of a major crop pathogen.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Low-dimensional physics of clay particle size distribution and layer ordering

Abstract Clays are known for their small particle sizes and complex layer stacking. We show here that the limited dimension of clay particles arises from the lack of long-range order in low-dimensional systems. Because of its weak interlayer interaction, a clay mineral can be treated as two separate low-dimensional systems: a 2D system for individual phyllosilicate layers and a quasi-1D system for layer stacking. The layer stacking or ordering in an interstratified clay can be described by a 1D Ising model while the limited extension of individual phyllosilicate layers can be related to a 2D Berezinskii–Kosterlitz–Thouless transition. This treatment allows for a systematic prediction of clay particle size distributions and layer stacking as controlled by the physical and chemical conditions for mineral growth and transformation. Clay minerals provide a useful model system for studying a transition from a 1D to 3D system in crystal growth and for a nanoscale structural manipulation of a general type of layered materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Intrinsic chemical reactivity of solid-electrolyte interphase components in silicon–lithium alloy anode batteries probed by FTIR spectroscopy

Herein we report the solid reaction products from the chemical reaction of aprotic battery electrolyte and three purported components of the Si-based anode SEI : SiO 2 nanoparticles (NPs), lithium silicate (Li x SiO y ) powders, and Si NPs. We use FTIR and classical molecular dynamics/density functional perturbation theory to assess the solid products remaining with these model materials after exposure to electrolyte. The absence of electrochemical bias provides a view of the chemical speciation resulting from early-stage chemical reactivity during battery assembly as well as under open circuit storage conditions. We believe these species represent the initial stages of SEI growth and predict they likely drive subsequent chemical and electrochemical reactions by controlling molecular interactons at the Si active material interface. We find that nominally equivalent materials react differently even before any electrochemistry is performed (e.g., acidic SiO 2 dissolves whereas alkaline SiO 2 is relatively robust), and derive new understanding of the chemical species that could and could not form stable SEI components in Si-based anodes. These results can be used to inform how to passivate Si anode surfaces and potentially generate an artificially engineered SEI that would be stable and enable next-generation battery anodes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine Learning for Optimized Polarization at Jefferson Lab

Polarized cryo-targets and polarized photon beams are widely used in experiments at Jefferson Lab. Traditional methods for maintaining the optimal polarization involve manual adjustments throughout data taking by human shift takers. This may introduce some level of inconsistency simply due to the wide variety of experience and expertise of the shift takers themselves. Implementing machine learning-based control systems can improve the stability of the polarization without relying on human intervention. The cryo-target polarization is influenced by temperature, microwave energy, the distribution of paramagnetic radicals, as well as operational conditions including the radiation dose. Diamond radiators are used to generate linearly polarized photons from a primary electron beam. The energy spectrum of these photons can drift over time due to changes in the primary electron beam conditions and diamond degradation. As a first step towards automating the continuous optimization and control processes, uncertainty aware surrogate models have been developed to predict the polarization based on historical data. This talk will provide an overview of the use cases and models developed, highlighting the collaboration between data scientists and physicists at Jefferson Lab.

Jeske, Torri [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerato↗

Multi-layering of SU-8 exhibits distinct geometrical transitions from circular to planarized profiles

The negative tone photoresist SU-8 permits the creation of micrometer-scale structures by optical lithography. It is also the most used photoresist in soft lithography for the fast-prototyping of microfluidic devices. Despite its importance, the effect of capillary forces on SU-8 multi-layering onto topographical features has not been thoroughly studied. In particular, the profile of the added layer has not been examined in detail. The overlaying process exhibits a set of distinct behaviors, or regimes, depending on the relative thickness of the overlay and the underlying rectangular pattern. We demonstrate how capillary effects control the profile of multi-layer microchannels in a predictable manner. We derive a simple static model to describe the evolution of the overlay as a function of dimensionless geometric parameters. Our study provides a critical understanding of the parameters that govern multi-layer spin coating.

Sauzade, Martin↗