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At least 1,135 records · Page 63
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

An Experimental Study of Uncertainty Considerations Associated with Predicting Auto-ignition Timing using Livengood-Wu Integral Method

The application of the Livengood-Wu (LW) integral method as a tool to estimate knock onset in spark ignited (SI) engines and combustion phasing in advanced compression ignition (ACI) engines has been demonstrated through simulations several times. In this study, the effect of uncertainties associated with parameters required for the LW integral method, when used as a tool for model based control of ignition timing in an ACI engine, were experimentally studied using five full boiling range gasoline fuels. As a first step, the method was applied to experimental data from a rapid compression machine and it was found that the ability of the LW integral method to predict ignition timing was very sensitive to the performance of the chemical kinetic model of each fuel. The method was subsequently applied to experimental data from a single-cylinder gasoline engine with simple approximations for the LW integral input parameters, and it was found that the predicted time of ignition was significantly different from the actual start of combustion. Systematic evaluation of various parametric uncertainties conducted thereafter showed that the uncertainty in cylinder charge temperature has the greatest influence. Improved methods of estimating cylinder charge temperature are proposed to account for the previously determined corrections, to enable the use of the LW integral method for model based control of ignition timing.

Compression Ignition↗
NASA NTRS2010

Quality Control and Calibration of the Dual-Polarization Radar at Kwajalein, RMI

Weather radars, recording information about precipitation around the globe, will soon be significantly upgraded. Most of today s weather radars transmit and receive microwave energy with horizontal orientation only, but upgraded systems have the capability to send and receive both horizontally and vertically oriented waves. These enhanced "dual-polarimetric" (DP) radars peer into precipitation and provide information on the size, shape, phase (liquid / frozen), and concentration of the falling particles (termed hydrometeors). This information is valuable for improved rain rate estimates, and for providing data on the release and absorption of heat in the atmosphere from condensation and evaporation (phase changes). The heating profiles in the atmosphere influence global circulation, and are a vital component in studies of Earth s changing climate. However, to provide the most accurate interpretation of radar data, the radar must be properly calibrated and data must be quality controlled (cleaned) to remove non-precipitation artifacts; both of which are challenging tasks for today s weather radar. The DP capability maximizes performance of these procedures using properties of the observed precipitation. In a notable paper published in 2005, scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) at the University of Oklahoma developed a method to calibrate radars using statistically averaged DP measurements within light rain. An additional publication by one of the same scientists at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, Oklahoma introduced several techniques to perform quality control of radar data using DP measurements. Following their lead, the Topical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Satellite Validation Office at NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center has fine-tuned these methods for specific application to the weather radar at Kwajalein Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, approximately 2100 miles southwest of Hawaii and 1400 miles east of Guam in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. This tropical oceanic location is important because the majority of rain, and therefore the majority of atmospheric heating, occurs in the tropics where limited ground-based radar data are available.

Marks, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

PRISM3D: a 3-D reference seismic model for Iberia and adjacent areas

SUMMARY We present PRISM3D, a 3-D reference seismic model of P- and S-wave velocities for Iberia and adjacent areas. PRISM3D results from the combination of the most up-to-date earth models available for the region. It extends horizontally from 15°W to 5°E in longitude, 34°N to 46°N in latitude and vertically from 3.5 km above to 200 km below sea level, and is modelled on a regular grid with 10 and 0.5 km of grid node spacing in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. It was designed using models inferred from local and teleseismic body-wave tomography, earthquake and ambient noise surface wave tomography, receiver function analysis and active source experiments. It includes two interfaces, namely the topography/bathymetry and the Mohorovičić (Moho) discontinuity. The Moho was modelled from previously published receiver function analysis and deep seismic sounding results. To that end we used a probabilistic surface reconstruction algorithm that allowed to extract the mean of the Moho depth surface along with its associated standard deviation, which provides a depth uncertainty estimate. The Moho depth model is in good agreement with previously published models, although it presents slightly sharper gardients in orogenic areas such as the Pyrenees or the Betic-Rif system. Crustal and mantle P- and S-wave wave speed grids were built separately on each side of the Moho depth surface by weighted average of existing models, thus allowing to realistically render the speed gradients across that interface. The associated weighted standard deviation was also calculated, which provides an uncertainty estimation on the average wave speed values at any point of the grid. At shallow depths (<10 km), low P and S wave speeds and high VP/VS are observed in offshore basins, while the Iberian Massif, which covers a large part of western Iberia, appears characterized by a rather flat Moho, higher than average VP and VS and low VP/VS. Conversely, the Betic-Rif system seems to be associated with low VP and VS, combined with high VP/VS in comparison to the rest of the study area. The most prominent feature of the mantle is the well known high wave speed anomaly related to the Alboran slab imaged in various mantle tomography studies. The consistency of PRISM3D with previous work is verified by comparing it with two recent studies, with which it shows a good general agreement.The impact of the new 3-D model is illustrated through a simple synthetic experiment, which shows that the lateral variations of the wave speed can produce traveltime differences ranging from –1.5 and 1.5 s for P waves and from –2.5 and 2.5 s for S waves at local to regional distances. Such values are far larger than phase picking uncertainties and would likely affect earthquake hypocentral parameter estimations. The new 3-D model thus provides a basis for regional studies including earthquake source studies, Earth structure investigations and geodynamic modelling of Iberia and its surroundings.

Arroucau, P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transfer and Flushing Evaluation for Potential Precipitated Solids in the 241-AP-106 to EMF Transfer Pipeline for DFLAW

Waste transfer pipeline flushing is necessary to maintain pipeline performance, but added flush fluid increases the nuclear waste inventory. During the Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) mission, waste transfer lines from the Interim Low-Activity Waste Storage Tank (i.e., 241-AP-106) to the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Facility must have the capability of being flushed to prevent accumulation of solids and to mitigate corrosion concerns. Operational experience at Hanford has shown that the solids precipitation occurs during processing operations from dilute Hanford liquids. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was requested to evaluate the potential precipitated solid particle transport and flushing operational capabilities of the AP-106 through the Effluent Management Facility (EMF) low-point drain LAW feed pipeline. The evaluation results do not provide operational requirements, but rather provide a scoping basis for understanding the potential operational significance of solids precipitation in the pipeline. The salt and aluminum phase solids most likely to precipitate from the LAW feeds during cooling, evaporation, or mixing have particle densities that are estimated to range from 1.62 to 2.78 g/mL and a spherical particle size range of 8 to 2100 μm, depending on the solid phase considered. Application of the method to calculate the critical deposition velocity required by TFC-ENG-STD-26 at conservatively bounding estimates for the solids concentrations demonstrates that potentially precipitated solids may deposit on the bottom of the transfer pipe invert at the lower LAW feed pipeline flow rate, but the upper LAW feed pipeline flow rate will likely prevent deposition. The system pressure limit for the AP-106 through the EMF low-point drain LAW feed pipeline likely exceeds any pressure loss at a calculated critical deposition velocity even for the most adverse potential precipitated solid. However, should solids settle as a result of no-flow conditions, the flow capabilities of the AP-106 through the EMF low-point drain LAW feed pipeline are shown, based on the available literature, to be potentially inadequate for effective flushing operations to remove solids, even at solids concentrations below the maximum specified for LAW feed. Thus, stepwise solids accumulations over multiple transfers may be an issue, and eventual line plugging may occur. Further inadequacies may potentially be realized should the cohesive nature of certain precipitates be accounted for.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diverse high-pressure chemistry in Y-NH 3 BH 3 and Y–paraffin oil systems

The yttrium-hydrogen system has gained attention because of near-ambient temperature superconductivity reports in yttrium hydrides at high pressures. We conducted a study using synchrotron single-crystal x-ray diffraction (SCXRD) at 87 to 171 GPa, resulting in the discovery of known (two YH3 phases) and five previously unknown yttrium hydrides. These were synthesized in diamond anvil cells by laser heating yttrium with hydrogen-rich precursors—ammonia borane or paraffin oil. The arrangements of yttrium atoms in the crystal structures of new phases were determined on the basis of SCXRD, and the hydrogen content estimations based on empirical relations and ab initio calculations revealed the following compounds: Y 3 H 11 , Y 2 H 9 , Y 4 H 23 , Y 13 H 75 , and Y 4 H 25 . The study also uncovered a carbide (YC 2 ) and two yttrium allotropes. Complex phase diversity, variable hydrogen content in yttrium hydrides, and their metallic nature, as revealed by ab initio calculations, underline the challenges in identifying superconducting phases and understanding electronic transitions in high-pressure synthesized materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Picometer sensitivity metrology for EUV absorber phase

With growing interest in EUV attenuated phase-shift masks due to their superior image quality for applications such as dense contact and pillar arrays, it is becoming critical to model, measure, and monitor the intensity and relative phase of multilayer and absorber reflections. We present a solution based on physical modeling of reflectometry data, which can achieve single picometer phase precision and sensitivity to changes in average film thickness below one atomic monolayer. We measure absorber and multilayer reflectivity to determine thin-film parameters with a multidimensional optimization and then acquire a new measurement of either multilayer or absorber to determine perturbations in surface contamination thickness. While it is difficult to assess the accuracy of the first step, the simplicity of the second step allows us to characterize our sensitivity to changes in contamination thickness. Thus, we apply this analysis using an initial set of measurements and repeated measurements after a period of storage. For the multilayer, the total contamination growth was 1068 pm, which occurred almost exclusively during storage (1085 pm) and decreased very slightly during repeated measurements (-17 pm). For the absorber, the behavior was quite different, with a total growth of 126 pm, which occurred much less during storage (28 pm) and primarily during repeated measurements (98 pm). Ultimately, the change in relative phase (absorber minus multilayer) was -0.86 deg for the multilayer and -1.12 deg for the absorber. We estimate the precision of the surface contamination measurement to be 3σ < 6 pm for measuring thickness and 3σ < 0.2 deg for measuring phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1991

Precise time dissemination and applications development on the Bonneville Power Administration system

The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) uses IRIG-B transmitted over microwave as its primary system time dissemination. Problems with accuracy and reliability have led to ongoing research into better methods. BPA has also developed and deployed a unique fault locator which uses precise clocks synchronized by a pulse over microwaves. It automatically transmits the data to a central computer for analysis. A proposed system could combine fault location timing and time dissemination into a Global Position System (GPS) timing receiver and close the verification loop through a master station at the Dittmer Control Center. Such a system would have many advantages, including lower cost, higher reliability, and wider industry support. Test results indicate the GPS has sufficient accuracy and reliability for this and other current timing requirements including synchronous phase angle measurements. A phasor measurement system which provides phase angle has recently been tested with excellent results. Phase angle is a key parameter in power system control applications including dynamic braking, DC modulation, remedial action schemes, and system state estimation. Further research is required to determine the applications which can most effectively use real-time phase angle measurements and the best method to apply them.

K. E. Martin↗
NASA NTRS2000

A LEO Satellite Navigation Algorithm Based on GPS and Magnetometer Data

The Global Position System (GPS) has become a standard method for low cost onboard satellite orbit determination. The use of GPS as an attitude and rate sensor has also been developed in the recent past. Additionally, focus has been given to attitude and orbit estimation using the magnetometer, a low cost, reliable sensor. Combining measurements from both GPS and a magnetometer can provide a robust navigation system which takes advantage of the estimation qualities of both measurements. Ultimately a low cost, accurate navigation system can result, potentially eliminating the need for more costly sensors, including gyroscopes. This work presents the development and preliminary testing of a unified navigation algorithm which produces estimates of attitude, angular rate, position, and velocity for a low earth orbit (LEO) spacecraft. The system relies on GPS phase, range, and range rate data as well as magnetometer data. The algorithm used is an extended Kalman filter (EKF) developed to provide LEO attitude, orbit, and rate estimates using magnetometer and sun sensor data. Incorporating sun sensor data into the EKF improved the attitude and rate estimates. For many LEO spacecraft the sun data is available during only a portion of the orbit. However, GPS data is available continuously throughout the orbit. GPS can produce accurate orbit estimates and combining GPS and magnetometer data improves the attitude and rate estimates. The magnetometer based EKF can converge from large initial errors in position, velocity, and 3 attitude . Combining the magnetometer and GPS data into a single EKF will provide a more robust and accurate system. The EKF is based on an existing EKF. The GPS measurement models for phase, range, and range rate are incorporated into the existing structure of the filter. The original EKF produced the orbit estimates in terms of Keplerian elements. Due to the nature of the GPS measurements and ease of computation, the orbit estimates are converted to the Cartesian position and velocity. The measurement model for the magnetometer is adjusted for this change in the state and the measurements. Preliminary test results based on simulated GPS and magnetometer data are included.

Deutschmann, Julie↗
DOE OSTI2020

Water content of carbon dioxide at hydrate forming conditions

There is an interest to ensure sub-saturated water content in lines containing carbon dioxide in applications such as enhanced oil recovery and carbon sequestration, to reduce risks of hydrate blockage and corrosion. The water content of carbon dioxide at various temperatures and pressures has been measured in the past, but there is no consistent set of measurements that could be used for carbon dioxide storage and transportation design work. The solubility of water in a carbon dioxide rich gas phase at hydrate forming conditions was measured in this work. Pressures ranged from 12.06 to 29.30 bar along two isotherms, 1 °C and -7 °C, all within the gaseous carbon dioxide and hydrate stability zone. For the first time in these types of measurements, the solid phase was also characterized and confirmed to be carbon dioxide hydrate via X-ray computed tomography, simultaneous with water content measurements of the gas phase. Once carbon dioxide hydrate conversion had reached a maximum value (65% estimated by X-ray computed tomography), the equilibrium water content was measured. Prior to reaching this maximum carbon dioxide hydrate conversion, the water content in carbon dioxide was observed to decrease as liquid water converted to carbon dioxide hydrate. Furthermore, this slow conversion to hydrate, metastability of the hydrate phase, or unexpected phases may be responsible for the large discrepancy between prior data sets for similar carbon dioxide water content measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytical-based simulation approach for an anion exchange membrane fuel cell

An analytical and empirical-based 1-D, non-isothermal, steady-state model for anion exchange membrane fuel cell capable of capturing two-phase phenomena is presented in this study. Coupled multi-physics including mass and charge transport, electrochemical reactions, heat transfer, and two-phase water transport are considered in the model and the simulated results are compared to experimental data. To better represent actual material properties and localized conditions, the model applies multilayer discretization in the gas diffusion electrode to enhance prediction accuracy. The model successfully predicts the baseline performance at 70 °C, 131 kPa abs., 92% RH with pure H 2 /O 2 gas as well as the limiting current at 10% H 2 . The robust simulation approach allows for simplistic and accurate estimation of cell performance without the complications of applying two-phase parameters and expensive computational need for numerical models. In addition, the results from the sensitivity studies of material properties and operating conditions provide valuable insights on water management strategies and optimal component design for advancing anion exchange membrane fuel cell technology.

1-D model↗
NASA NTRS2011

Stardust-NExT, Deep Impact, and the Accelerating Spin of 9P/Tempel One

The evolution of the spin rate of comet 9P/Tempel 1 through two perihelion passages (CYs 2000 and 2005) is determined from 1922 Earth-based observations taken over a period of 13y as part of a World-Wide observing campaign and 2888 observations taken over a period of 50d from the Deep Impact spacecraft. We determine the following sidereal spin rates (periods): 209.023 +/- 0.025 degrees /day (41.335 +/- 0.005 h) prior to the 2000 perihelion passage, 210.448 +/- 0.016 degrees/day (41.055 +/- 0.003 h) for the interval between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages, 211.856 +/- 0.030 degrees/day (40.783 +/- 0.006 h) from Deep Impact photometry just prior to the 2005 perihelion passage, and 211.625 +/- 0.012 degrees /day (40.827 +/- 0.002 h) in the interval 2006-2010 following the 2005 perihelion passage. The period decreased by 16.8 +/- 0.3 min during the 2000 passage and by 13.7 +/- 0.2 min during the 2005 passage suggesting a secular decrease in the net torque. The change in spin rate is asymmetric with respect to perihelion with the maximum net torque being applied on approach to perihelion. The Deep Impact data alone show that the spin rate was increasing at a rate of 0.024 +/- 0.003 degree/d/d at JD2453530.60510 (i.e., 25.134 d before impact) and provides independent confirmation of the change seen in the Earth-based observations. The rotational phase of the nucleus at times before and after each perihelion and at the Deep Impact encounter is estimated based on the Thomas et al. pole and longitude system. The possibility of a 180 degree error in the rotational phase is assessed and found to be significant. Analytical and physical modeling of the behavior of the spin rate through of each perihelion is presented and used as a basis to predict the rotational state of the nucleus at the time of the nominal (i.e., prior to February 2010) Stardust-NExT encounter on 2011 February 14 20:42. We find that a net torque in the range of 0.3 - 2.5 x 10(exp 7) kg.square m2/square s acts on the nucleus during perihelion passage. The spin rate initially slows down on approach to perihelion and then passes through a minimum. It then accelerates rapidly as it passes through perihelion eventually reaching a maximum post-perihelion. It then decreases to a stable value as the nucleus moves away from the sun. We find that the pole direction is unlikely to precess by more than approximately 1 degree/perihelion passage. The trend of the period with time and the fact that the modeled peak torque that occurs before perihelion is in agreement with published accounts of trends in water production rate and suggests that widespread H2O out-gassing from the surface is largely responsible for the observed spin-up.

Belton, Michael J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Active Aeroelastic Wing Aerodynamic Model Development and Validation for a Modified F/A-18A

A new aerodynamic model has been developed and validated for a modified F/A-18A used for the Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) research program. The goal of the program was to demonstrate the advantages of using the inherent flexibility of an aircraft to enhance its performance. The research aircraft was an F/A-18A with wings modified to reduce stiffness and a new control system to increase control authority. There have been two flight phases. Data gathered from the first flight phase were used to create the new aerodynamic model. A maximum-likelihood output-error parameter estimation technique was used to obtain stability and control derivatives. The derivatives were incorporated into the National Aeronautics and Space Administration F-18 simulation, validated, and used to develop new AAW control laws. The second phase of flights was used to evaluate the handling qualities of the AAW aircraft and the control law design process, and to further test the accuracy of the new model. The flight test envelope covered Mach numbers between 0.85 and 1.30 and dynamic pressures from 600 to 1250 pound-force per square foot. The results presented in this report demonstrate that a thorough parameter identification analysis can be used to improve upon models that were developed using other means. This report describes the parameter estimation technique used, details the validation techniques, discusses differences between previously existing F/A-18 models, and presents results from the second phase of research flights.

Cumming, Stephen B.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Active Aeroelastic Wing Aerodynamic Model Development and Validation for a Modified F/A-18A Airplane

A new aerodynamic model has been developed and validated for a modified F/A-18A airplane used for the Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) research program. The goal of the program was to demonstrate the advantages of using the inherent flexibility of an aircraft to enhance its performance. The research airplane was an F/A-18A with wings modified to reduce stiffness and a new control system to increase control authority. There have been two flight phases. Data gathered from the first flight phase were used to create the new aerodynamic model. A maximum-likelihood output-error parameter estimation technique was used to obtain stability and control derivatives. The derivatives were incorporated into the National Aeronautics and Space Administration F-18 simulation, validated, and used to develop new AAW control laws. The second phase of flights was used to evaluate the handling qualities of the AAW airplane and the control law design process, and to further test the accuracy of the new model. The flight test envelope covered Mach numbers between 0.85 and 1.30 and dynamic pressures from 600 to 1250 pound-force per square foot. The results presented in this report demonstrate that a thorough parameter identification analysis can be used to improve upon models that were developed using other means. This report describes the parameter estimation technique used, details the validation techniques, discusses differences between previously existing F/A-18 models, and presents results from the second phase of research flights.

Cumming, Stephen B.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Non-destructive evaluation of composite materials using ultrasound

Investigation of the nondestructive evaluation of advanced composite-laminates is summarized. Indices derived from the measurement of fundamental acoustic parameters are used in order to quantitatively estimate the local material properties of the laminate. The following sections describe ongoing studies of phase insensitive attenuation measurements, and discuss several phenomena which influences the previously reported technique of polar backscatter. A simple and effective programmable gate circuit designed for use in estimating attenuation from backscatter is described.

Miller, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Sulfur, Chlorine and Fluorine Degassing and Atmospheric Loading by the Roza eruption, Columbia River Basalt Group, Washington

In this study we attempt to quantify the amount of S, Cl and F released by the 1300 cu km Roza member (approximately 14.7 Ma) of the Columbia River Basalt Group, which was produced by a moderate-size flood basalt eruption in the mid-Miocene. Our results are the first indication of the potential atmospheric SO2 yield from a flood basalt eruption, and indicate the mechanism by which flood basalt eruptions may have seriously affected the environment. Glass inclusions in phenocrysts and quenched glass in products from various stages of the eruption were analyzed for concentrations of S, Cl and F and major elements. Glass inclusions contain 1965 +/- 110 ppm S, 295 +/- 65 ppm Cl and 1310 +/- 110 ppm F. Groundmass glass of Roza dike selvages contains considerably lower concentrations: 1110 +/- 90 ppm S, 245 +/- 30 ppm Cl and 1020 +/- 25 ppm F. Scoria clasts from near vent deposits contain 665 +/- 75 ppm S, 175 +/- 5 ppm Cl and 950 +/- 20 ppm F, and the groundmass glass of lava selvages contains 520 +/- 30 ppm S, 190 +/- 30 ppm Cl and 890 +/- 55 ppm F. In crystalline lava, the concentrations are 195 ppm S, 100 ppm Cl and 830 ppm F. Volatile element concentrations in these samples represent the progress of degassing through the eruption and can be used to estimate the potential amount of the volatiles S, Cl and F released by the magma into the atmosphere, as well as to evaluate the amount liberated by various phases of the eruption. The total amount of volatiles released by the Roza eruption is estimated to have been approximately 12,420 MtSO2, approximately 710 MtHCI and approximately 1780 MtHF. The Roza magma liberated approximately 9620 MtSO, (77% of the total volatile mass released), approximately 400 MtHCI (56%) and approximately 1450 MtHF (81%) at the vents and lofted by the eruption columns to altitudes of 7-13 km. Degassing of the lava is estimated to have released an additional approximately 2810 MtSO2, approximately 310 MtHCI and approximately 330 MtHF. The Roza eruption is likely to have lasted for approximately 10 years, indicating an annual H2SO4-mass loading of approximately 1800 Mt. Thus, the atmospheric perturbations associated with the Roza eruption may have been of the magnitude predicted for a severe "nuclear" or "volcanic" winter, but lasting up to a decade or more.

Thordarson, Th.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phase Transition of Heptane under Pressure

A solid-to-solid phase transition was discovered in n-heptane with an onset at a pressure of 1.7 ± 0.1 GPa, evidenced by a discontinuity in the pressure–volume equation of state obtained from synchrotron X-ray diffraction experiments conducted at room temperature. The phase transition also resulted in discontinuous shifts of vibrational peaks in the infrared spectra. No additional phase transitions were detected up to 10 GPa, contradicting an earlier claim of a phase transition at 3 GPa. Furthermore, the hydrostatic limit of heptane in a diamond anvil cell was estimated to be 3.5 GPa. Above that pressure, the stress state is not well-defined, which may explain prior reports of a phase transition at 7.5 GPa.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2018

Prediction and Predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillation in the NASA GEOS-5 Seasonal-to-Subseasonal System

In this study, we examine the prediction skill and predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in a recent version of the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model run at at 1/2 degree horizontal resolution. The results are based on a suite of hindcasts produced as part of the NOAA SubX project, consisting of seven ensemble members initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2015. The atmospheric initial conditions were taken from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the ocean and the sea ice were taken from a GMAO ocean analysis. The land states were initialized from the MERRA-2 land output, which is based on observation-corrected precipitation fields. We investigated the MJO prediction skill in terms of the bivariate correlation coefficient for the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices. The correlation coefficient stays at or above 0.5 out to forecast lead times of 26-36 days, with a pronounced increase in skill for forecasts initialized from phase 3, when the MJO convective anomaly is located in the central tropical Indian Ocean. A corresponding estimate of the upper limit of the predictability is calculated by considering a single ensemble member as the truth and verifying the ensemble mean of the remaining members against that. The predictability estimates fall between 35-37 days (taken as forecast lead when the correlation reaches 0.5) and are rather insensitive to the initial MJO phase. The model shows slightly higher skill when the initial conditions contain strong MJO events compared to weak events, although the difference in skill is evident only from lead 1 to 20. Similar to other models, the RMM-index-based skill arises mostly from the circulation components of the index. The skill of the convective component of the index drops to 0.5 by day 20 as opposed to day 30 for circulation fields. The propagation of the MJO anomalies over the Maritime Continent does not appear problematic in the GEOS-5 hindcasts implying that the Maritime Continent predictability barrier may not be a major concern in this model. Finally, the MJO prediction skill in this version of GEOS-5 is superior to that of the current seasonal prediction system at the GMAO; this could be partly attributed to a slightly better representation of the MJO in the free running version of this model and partly to the improved atmospheric initialization from MERRA-2.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗
NASA NTRS1978

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). First interim phase 3 evaluation report

The author has identified the following significant results. LACIE acreage estimates were in close agreement with SRS estimates, and an operational system with a 14 day LANDSAT data turnaround could have produced an accurate acreage estimate (one which satisfied the 90/90 criterion) 1 1/2 to 2 months before harvest. Low yield estimates, resulting from agromet conditions not taken into account in the yield models, caused production estimates to be correspondingly low. However, both yield and production estimates satisfied the LACIE 90/90 criterion for winter wheat in the yardstick region.

Source record↗