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NASA NTRS2010

The Relation Between Magnetospheric State Parameters and the Occurrence of Plasma Depletion Events in the Night-Time Mid-Latitude F-Region

Studies using all-sky imagers have revealed the presence of various ionospheric irregularities in the night-time mid-latitude F-region. The most prevalent and well known of these are the Medium Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (MSTIDs) that usually occur when the geomagnetic activity is low, and mid-latitude spread-F plumes that are often observed when the geomagnetic activity is high. The inverse and direct relations between geomagnetic activity (particularly Kp) and the occurrence rate of MSTIDs and midlatitude plumes, respectively, have been observed by several studies using different instruments. In order to understand the underlying causes of these two relations, it is illuminating to better characterize the occurrence of MSTIDs and plumes using multiple magnetospheric state parameters. Here we statistically compare multiple geomagnetic driver and response parameters (such as Kp, AE, Dst, and solar wind parameters) with the occurrence rates of night-time MSTIDs and plumes observed using an all-sky imager at Arecibo Observatory (AO) between 2003 and 2008. The results not only allow us to better distinguish MSTIDs and plumes, but also shed further light on the generation mechanism and electrodynamics of these two different phenomena occurring at night-time in the mid-latitude F-region.

Seker, Ilgin↗

NASA NTRS2008

Characterization of Piezoelectric Stacks for Space Applications

Future NASA missions are increasingly seeking to actuate mechanisms to precision levels in the nanometer range and below. Co-fired multilayer piezoelectric stacks offer the required actuation precision that is needed for such mechanisms. To obtain performance statistics and determine reliability for extended use, sets of commercial PZT stacks were tested in various AC and DC conditions at both nominal and high temperatures and voltages. In order to study the lifetime performance of these stacks, five actuators were driven sinusoidally for up to ten billion cycles. An automated data acquisition system was developed and implemented to monitor each stack's electrical current and voltage waveforms over the life of the test. As part of the monitoring tests, the displacement, impedance, capacitance and leakage current were measured to assess the operation degradation. This paper presents some of the results of this effort.

active mirrors↗

NASA NTRS2012

Bridging Informatics and Earth Science: a Look at Gregory Leptoukh's Contributions

With the tragic passing this year of Gregory Leptoukh, the Earth and Space Sciences community lost a tireless participant in--and advocate for--science informatics. Throughout his career at NASA, Dr. Leptoukh established a theme of bridging the gulf between the informatics and science communities. Nowhere is this more evident than his leadership in the development of Giovanni (GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure). Giovanni is an online tool that serves to hide the often-complex technical details of data format and structure, making science data easier to explore and use by Earth scientists. To date Giovanni has been acknowledged as a contributor in 500-odd scientific articles. In recent years, Leptoukh concentrated his efforts on multi-sensor data inter-comparison, merging and fusion. This work exposed several challenges at the intersection of data and science. One of these was the ease with which a naive user might generate spurious comparisons, a potential hazard that was the genesis of the Multi-sensor Data Synergy Advisor (MDSA). The MDSA uses semantic ontologies and inference rules to organize knowledge about dataset quality and other salient characteristics in order to advise users on potential caveats for comparing or merging two datasets. Recently, Leptoukh also led the development of AeroStat, an online Giovanni instance to investigate aerosols via statistics from station and satellite comparisons and merged maps of data from more than one instrument. Aerostat offers a neural net based bias adjustment to harmonize the data by removing systematic offsets between datasets before merging. These examples exhibit Leptoukh's talent for adopting advanced computer technologies in the service of making science data more accessible to researchers. In this, he set an example that is at once both vital and challenging for the ESSI community to emulate.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evolution of Intrinsic Scatter in the SFR-Stellar Mass Correlation at 0.5 less than z Less Than 3

We present estimates of intrinsic scatter in the star formation rate (SFR)--stellar mass (M*) correlation in the redshift range 0.5 less than z less than 3.0 and in the mass range 10(exp 7) less than M* less than 10(exp 11) solar mass. We utilize photometry in the Hubble Ultradeep Field (HUDF12) and Ultraviolet Ultra Deep Field (UVUDF) campaigns and CANDELS/GOODS-S and estimate SFR, M* from broadband spectral energy distributions and the best-available redshifts. The maximum depth of the UDF photometry (F160W 29.9 AB, 5 sigma depth) probes the SFR--M* correlation down to M* approximately 10(exp 7) solar mass, a factor of 10-100 x lower in M* than previous studies, and comparable to dwarf galaxies in the local universe. We find the slope of the SFR-M* relationship to be near unity at all redshifts and the normalization to decrease with cosmic time. We find a moderate increase in intrinsic scatter with cosmic time from 0.2 to 0.4 dex across the epoch of peak cosmic star formation. None of our redshift bins show a statistically significant increase in intrinsic scatter approximately 100 Myr. Our results are consistent with a picture of gradual and self-similar assembly of galaxies across more than three orders of magnitude in stellar mass from as low as 10(exp 7) solar mass.

Kurczynski, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2017

Near Earth Asteroid Characterization for Threat Assessment

Physical characteristics of NEAs are an essential input to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry and to assess the risk of impact but determining these properties requires a non-trivial investment of time and resources. The characteristics relevant to these models include size, density, strength and ablation coefficient. Some of these characteristics cannot be directly measured, but rather must be inferred from related measurements of asteroids and/or meteorites. Furthermore, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project at NASA Ames Research Center has developed a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model in order to assess the risk of asteroid impact. Our PAIR model and its use to develop probability distributions of impact risk are discussed in other contributions to PDC 2017 (e.g., Mathias et al.). Here we utilize PAIR to investigate which NEA characteristics are important for assessing the impact threat by investigating how changes in these characteristics alter the damage predicted by PAIR. We will also provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge of the NEA characteristics of importance for asteroid threat assessment. The relative importance of different properties as identified using PAIR will be combined with our assessment of the current state of knowledge to identify potential high impact investigations. In addition, we will discuss an ongoing effort to collate the existing measurements of NEA properties of interest to the planetary defense community into a readily accessible database.

Asteroid characterization↗

NASA NTRS2018

Local Versus Remote Contributions of Soil Moisture to Near-Surface Temperature Variability

Soil moisture variations have a straightforward impact on overlying air temperatures, wetter soils can induce higher evaporative cooling of the soil and thus, locally, cooler temperatures overall. Not known, however, is the degree to which soil moisture variations can affect remote air temperatures through their impact on the atmospheric circulation. In this talk we describe a two-pronged analysis that addresses this question. In the first segment, an extensive ensemble of NASA/GSFC GEOS-5 atmospheric model simulations is analyzed statistically to isolate and quantify the contributions of various soil moisture states, both local and remote, to the variability of air temperature at a given local site. In the second segment, the relevance of the derived statistical relationships is evaluated by applying them to observations-based data. Results from the second segment suggest that the GEOS-5-based relationships do, at least to first order, hold in nature and thus may provide some skill to forecasts of air temperature at subseasonal time scales, at least in certain regions.

Koster, R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Statistical Analysis of the AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop CFD Solutions

The first AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop (DPW), held in June 2001, evaluated the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes CFD codes. The code-to-code scatter was more than an order of magnitude larger than desired for design and experimental validation of cruise conditions for a subsonic transport configuration. The second AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop, held in June 2003, emphasized the determination of installed pylon-nacelle drag increments and grid refinement studies. The code-to-code scatter was significantly reduced compared to the first DPW, but still larger than desired. However, grid refinement studies showed no significant improvement in code-to-code scatter with increasing grid refinement. The third AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop, held in June 2006, focused on the determination of installed side-of-body fairing drag increments and grid refinement studies for clean attached flow on wing alone configurations and for separated flow on the DLR-F6 subsonic transport model. This report compares the transonic cruise prediction results of the second and third workshops using statistical analysis.

Joseph H Morrison↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling iterative reconstruction and displacement field in the large scale structure

The next generation of galaxy surveys like the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and Euclid will provide datasets orders of magnitude larger than anything available to date. Our ability to model nonlinear effects in late time matter perturbations will be a key to unlock the full potential of these datasets, and the area of initial condition reconstruction is attracting growing attention. Iterative reconstruction developed by Marcel Schmittfull et al. is a technique designed to reconstruct the displacement field from the observed galaxy distribution. The nonlinear displacement field and initial linear density field are highly correlated. Therefore, reconstructing the nonlinear displacement field enables us to extract the primordial cosmological information better than from the late time density field at the level of the two-point statistics. This paper will test to what extent the iterative reconstruction can recover the true displacement field and construct a perturbation theory model for the postreconstructed field. We model the iterative reconstruction process with Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) up to third order for dark matter in real space and compare it with N-body simulations. Here we find that the simulated iterative reconstruction does not converge to the nonlinear displacement field, and the discrepancy mainly appears in the shift term, i.e., the term correlated directly with the linear density field. On the contrary, our 3LPT model predicts that the iterative reconstruction should converge to the nonlinear displacement field. We discuss the sources of discrepancy, including numerical noise/artifacts on small scales, and present an ad hoc phenomenological model that improves the agreement.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of nEXO to 136 Xe charged-current interactions: Background-free searches for solar neutrinos and fermionic dark matter

We study the sensitivity of nEXO to solar neutrino charged-current interactions, 𝜈 𝑒 + 136 Xe → 136 Cs*+𝑒 − , as well as analogous interactions predicted by models of fermionic dark matter. Due to the recently observed low-lying isomeric states of 136 Cs, these interactions will create a time-delayed coincident signal observable in the scintillation channel. Here we develop a detailed Monte Carlo simulation of scintillation emission, propagation, and detection in the nEXO detector to model these signals under different assumptions about the timing resolution of the photosensor readout. We show this correlated signal can be used to achieve background discrimination on the order of 10 −9 , enabling nEXO to make background-free measurements of solar neutrinos above the reaction threshold of 0.668 MeV. We project that nEXO could measure the flux of neutrinos from the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen cycle with a statistical uncertainty of 25%, thus contributing a novel and competitive measurement toward addressing the solar metallicity problem. Additionally, nEXO could measure the mean energy of the 7 Be neutrinos with a precision of 𝜎 ≤ 1.5 keV and could determine the survival probability of 7 Be and pep solar 𝜈𝑒 with precision comparable to the state of the art. These quantities are sensitive to the Sun’s core temperature and to nonstandard neutrino interactions, respectively. Here, the strong background suppression would allow nEXO to search for charged-current interactions of fermionic dark matter in the mass range 𝑚 𝜒 = 0.668–7 MeV with a sensitivity up to three orders of magnitude better than current limits.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1991

A statistical approach to the brittle fracture of a multi-phase solid

A stochastic damage model is proposed to quantify the inherent statistical distribution of the fracture toughness of a brittle, multi-phase solid. The model, based on the macrocrack-microcrack interaction, incorporates uncertainties in locations and orientations of microcracks. Due to the high concentration of microcracks near the macro-tip, a higher order analysis based on traction boundary integral equations is formulated first for an arbitrary array of cracks. The effects of uncertainties in locations and orientations of microcracks at a macro-tip are analyzed quantitatively by using the boundary integral equations method in conjunction with the computer simulation of the random microcrack array. The short range interactions resulting from surrounding microcracks closet to the main crack tip are investigated. The effects of microcrack density parameter are also explored in the present study. The validity of the present model is demonstrated by comparing its statistical output with the Neville distribution function, which gives correct fits to sets of experimental data from multi-phase solids.

Liu, W. K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

Johnson, Jesse P.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗

DOE OSTI2023

An atomistic theory of nucleation: Self-organization via non-equilibrium work and fluctuations

For this work, insights from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, highlighting the role of work and fluctuations at the microscale, are applied toward the development of a fundamental, rigorous and purely atomistic theory of nucleation. Nanoscale fluctuations in order, density and heat influence the local nucleation rate by orders of magnitude, necessitating their inclusion through a modern approach. Coarse-graining over the underlying Hamiltonian dynamics allows derivation of a microscale expression for the nucleation rate in terms of a classical path integral over far from equilibrium trajectories and their associated work. Second law violating states at the microscale, as found from the dynamics of small critical nucleation clusters, contribute exponentially to the observable macroscale nucleation rate.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Segmental Dynamics and Vitrification in Associating Copolymer Melts: Role of Cluster Formation, Microdomains, and Cross-Linking

A microscopic statistical mechanical theory of the structure, self-assembly, and activated segmental relaxation is employed to study associating copolymer melts with high attractive sticker fractions, local clustering, and disordered microphase ordering. The stickers are dynamically pinned in a manner that does not affect equilibrium structure which mimics the much slower physical bond breaking process or postassembly cross-linking of sticky monomers. Local sticker clustering and microdomain spatial correlations significantly modify the activated relaxation of nonstickers and glass transition temperature, T g . A re-entrant glass-melting feature is predicted as sticker attraction strength is initially increased corresponding to a speed up of segmental relaxation, and hence reduction of T g relative to the cross-linked homopolymer network. A mechanistic analysis reveals three competing effects: a purely kinetic slowing down of nonstickers down due to cross-linking, disordering of the nonsticker local cage and weakening of effective forces they experience due to sticker physical clustering, and a longer range impact of microdomain scale correlations that results in nonmonotonic dynamical effects. At high enough attraction strength, a qualitative change emerges corresponding to a sticker fraction dependent elevation of T g , which eventually surpasses that of the cross-linked homopolymer network. Dynamically, the new physics arises from a complex evolution of the amplitude of the collective elastic field that dresses the large amplitude mobile segment hopping within a coupled local-nonlocal description of the alpha relaxation. Furthermore, the results are qualitatively consistent with recent experiments on associating PDMS and PPG telechelics of fixed sticker fraction but with chemically different end groups of variable attraction strengths. Finally, possible tests using simulation and the influence of material or model specific interaction potentials and other real world complications are discussed.

Copolymers↗

DOE OSTI2025

Personalized Tucker Decomposition: Modeling Commonality and Peculiarity on Tensor Data

In this paper, we propose a personalized Tucker decomposition (perTucker) to address the limitations of traditional tensor decomposition methods in capturing heterogeneity across different datasets. perTucker decomposes tensor data into shared global components and personalized local components. We introduce an order orthogonality assumption and develop a proximal gradient regularized block coordinate descent algorithm guaranteed to converge to a stationary point. The unique and common representations learned by perTucker reveal intrinsic statistical patterns in data and provide valuable information for a wide range of downstream analytics, including anomaly detection, source classification, and clustering. We demonstrate perTucker’s effectiveness through a simulation study and two case studies on solar flare detection and tonnage signal classification.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A kinetic-based regularization method for data science applications

We propose a physics-based regularization technique for function learning, inspired by statistical mechanics. By drawing an analogy between optimizing the parameters of an interpolator and minimizing the energy of a system, we introduce corrections that impose constraints on the lower-order moments of the data distribution. This minimizes the discrepancy between the discrete and continuum representations of the data, in turn allowing to access more favorable energy landscapes, thus improving the accuracy of the interpolator. Our approach improves performance in both interpolation and regression tasks, even in high-dimensional spaces. Unlike traditional methods, it does not require empirical parameter tuning, making it particularly effective for handling noisy data. We also show that thanks to its local nature, the method offers computational and memory efficiency advantages over Radial Basis Function interpolators, especially for large datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulating image coaddition with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope – II. Analysis of the simulated images and implications for weak lensing

One challenge for applying current weak lensing analysis tools to the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is that individual images will be undersampled. Our companion paper presented an initial application of Imcom – an algorithm that builds an optimal mapping from input to output pixels to reconstruct a fully sampled combined image – on the Roman image simulations. In this paper, we measure the output noise power spectra, identify the sources of the major features in the power spectra, and show that simple analytic models that ignore sampling effects underestimate the power spectra of the coadded noise images. We compute the moments of both idealized injected stars and fully simulated stars in the coadded images, and their one- and two-point statistics. We show that the idealized injected stars have root-mean-square ellipticity errors (1–6) × 10 -4 per component depending on the band; the correlation functions are ≥2 orders of magnitude below requirements, indicating that the image combination step itself is using a small fraction of the overall Roman second moment error budget, although the fourth moments are larger and warrant further investigation. The stars in the simulated sky images, which include blending and chromaticity effects, have correlation functions near the requirement level (and below the requirement level in a wide-band image constructed by stacking all four filters). We evaluate the noise-induced biases in the ellipticities of injected stars, and explain the resulting trends with an analytical model. We conclude by enumerating the next steps in developing an image coaddition pipeline for Roman.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Determination of proton PDF uncertainties with Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present an analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The MCMC approach naturally implements Bayes’ theorem and, thus, provides a means to directly sample the underlying probability distribution—in this case, the probability distribution of the PDF parameters. This allows for a straightforward propagation of the resulting uncertainties into any PDF-dependent observable, preserving their simple probabilistic interpretation. In our analysis we include a broad set of deep inelastic scattering data from HERA, BCDMS and NMC experiments along with the Drell-Yan, 𝑊 and 𝑍 boson data from LHC and Tevatron experiments, which combined with theoretical calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order in QCD allow for realistic determination of PDFs. The main focus of this analysis is to explore alternative methods for PDF uncertainty estimation that are more firmly grounded in statistical principles. We show that the flexibility of the Bayes framework, allowing one, e.g., to account for non-Gaussianity or inconsistencies of datasets, is crucial to extract realistic uncertainties when such assumptions are not fulfilled. We also demonstrate that MCMC allows one to determine the Δ⁢𝜒 2 value corresponding to a given confidence level in the sample, which can, in turn, be used as a statistically well-founded tolerance criterion used in the Hessian method, thus addressing one of its main long-standing drawbacks.

Risse, Peter Clemens [Universität Münster (Germany↗